Statistical analysis of natural gas consumption at an industrial bakery has revealed numerous saving opportunities that management was not aware of. Energy manager said Wow. Similar analysis can be done anywhere in the world for any repetitive process.

1. 04/03/2014
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COMMERCIAL BAKERY:
FROM NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION
ANALYSIS TO $AVINGS
GreenQ Partners demonstrates how statistical analysis of
consumption data uncovers gas saving opportunities
WHO WE ARE
 GreenQ Partners is a Toronto-based consulting firm that helps clients save
energy while becoming greener.
 www.greenq.ca
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Anatoli Naoumov, a Managing Director of GreenQ
Partners, has been helping clients cut costs and
increase profits for over 15 years.
He has been certified as measurement and verification
professional (CMVP) by the Association of Energy
Engineers (AEE) and the Efficiency Valuation
Organization (EVO).

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WHAT ANALYSIS?
 We analyse gas consumption data in relation to its key drivers (such as
production level and weather) to quantify the relationship and to find out how
this relationship changes over time.
 Any change in consumption-production-weather relationship equals to a change
in efficiency and signals either a saving opportunity or an operational issue.
 We do not sell any equipment, but we can confirm factual or calculate expected
savings from energy efficiency measures in your particular conditions.
All analysis is done in accordance with recommendations of International Performance Measurement and
Verification Protocol (IPMVP) established Efficiency Valuation Organisation (EVO).
We use RETScreenPlus software developed by NRCan.
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HOW CAN A BAKERY BENEFIT?
Through this analysis bakery manager may answer such practical operational
questions as:
 Has per kg gas consumption changed since last maintenance? Does it vary
month to month, season to season?
 Should we reheat oven or keep it running during non-production time?
 What is the marginal cost to bake another 1,000 kg of buns?
 How much should be reserved for the upcoming gas bill?
 Do we save gas from that gizmo installed 3 months ago?
 ….. and many more
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www.greenq.ca

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EFFICIENCY IS MORE THAN JUST COST OF GAS
Efficiency change signals operational or technical issues that lead
to other issues:
 Some burners malfunction
 Uneven temperature causes over/under baking
 Longer production cycle
 Air intake filter is dirty
 Incomplete combustion causes sod accumulation
 Air intake fan is overloaded, higher electricity consumption
 Oven is overused
 Deviation from operation schedules
 Incomplete load
 Unaccounted oven use
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WHAT DID WE FIND LAST TIME?
In a recent project conducted at a commercial bakery we have found:
 Statistically reliable formula connecting gas consumption and production of rolls to
be used for costing and budgeting instead of “average per kg gas consumption”:
Gas consumed per day on rolls in 2010 = 0.0329(±0.0001)*kgs + 115(±6)
 Baking an additional 1 kg of rolls required 0.38 m³ of gas in winter compared to
0.028 m³ in summer. Non-production consumption was significantly higher in
summer. Winter non-production consumption increased year-to-year by 2,000m³ and
5,000m³.
 Inadequate maintenance procedure resulted in consumption increase of 17,000m³
in 2011 and 45,000m³ in 2012.
 Confirmed weather-adjusted gas saving from technological improvement in amount
of 12,000m³ in 2011 and 26,000m³ in 2012
 Utilization of rejected heat for preheating combustion air alone can save 300,000-
400,000m³. Other uses of low grade heat are possible.
 Unexplained temporary decrease of about 90,000m³ in non-oven gas use.
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WHAT IS NEEDED FOR ANALYSIS?
General considerations:
 The more detailed and specific data we analyse – the more detailed and specific
result we can produce.
 Inconsistent SKU changes within gas measurement period will decrease
accuracy
 Production data: daily or per period if production level is consistent
 Gas consumption data: ideally - per oven, daily or per period if production
level is consistent
 Difference in dates or lengths of periods is OK
 General description of how measured equipment is used: shifts, daily load,
operation schedule, service intervals, changes within periods for which data
is provided.
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FAQ
 Can this analysis be used for other utilities? For other technologies?
 Yes, in the same way we can analyse electricity use for baking or refrigeration.
 We do not have weather data, how will you perform analysis?
 We can obtain factual weather data for any location from NASA
 Our production periods differ from gas billing cycles
 We can account for any periods, as long as start and end dates are known
 We do not submeter each oven, only have one utility meter
 Some analysis still can be performed, but accuracy will be lower. If ovens are of
the same type and load is spread evenly accuracy will approach that of sub-
metered ovens.
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