Rlb gulf states_report_october_2011

GULF STATES CONSTRUCTION
MARKET
REPORT INTELLIGENCE

FOURTH QUARTER 2011

FEATURING
THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
WHERE TO NOW FOR THE GULF?

OFFICES AROUND THE WORLD

OCEANIA EMEA ASIA AMERICAS
AUSTRALIA MIDDLE EAST CHINA CANADA
Adelaide Abu Dhabi Beijing Calgary
Brisbane Doha Chengdu
Cairns Dubai CARIBBEAN
Chongqing
Canberra Muscat Barbados
Dalian
Darwin Riyadh Grand Cayman
Guangzhou
Gold Coast Guiyang
UK USA
Melbourne Haikou
Birchwood/Warrington Boise, ID
Newcastle Hangzhou
Birmingham Boston, MA
Northern NSW Hong Kong
Bristol Denver, CO
Perth Macau
London Hagåtña, GU
Sunshine Coast Nanjing
Manchester Hilo, HI
Sydney Shanghai
Newcastle Honolulu, HI
Townsville Shenyang
Sheffield Kennewick, WA
Western Sydney Shenzhen
Welwyn Garden City Las Vegas, NV
Tianjin Los Angeles, CA
NEW ZEALAND Wokingham
Wuhan Monroe, WA
Auckland
EUROPE Wuxi New York, NY
Christchurch
RLB|EuroAlliance Xian Orlando, FL
Otago
Austria Zhuhai Phoenix, AZ
Palmerston North
Tauranga Belgium Portland, OR
India
Wellington Bulgaria San Francisco, CA
Mumbai
Czech Republic Seattle, WA
Estonia INDONESIA Tucson, AZ
France Jakarta Waikoloa, HI
Germany Washington, DC
Greece MALAYSIA
Hungary Kota Kinabalu
Ireland Kuala Lumpur
Italy
PHILIPPINES
Kazakhstan
Cebu
Latvia
Davao
Luxembourg
Manila
Malta
Netherlands SINGAPORE
Norway Singapore
Poland
Portugal SOUTH KOREA
Romania Seoul
Russia
Spain THAILAND
Sweden Bangkok
Slovakia
VIETNAM
Slovenia
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine

Cover: City skyline, Dubai

Disclaimer: While the information in this publication is believed to be correct at the time of publishing, no responsibility is accepted for its
accuracy. Persons desiring to utilise any information appearing in the publication should verify its applicability to their specific circumstances.
Cost information in this publication is indicative and for general guidance only and is based on rates as at Fourth Quarter 2011.

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GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET Bahrain
INTELLIGENCE Bahrain's economy continues to reel
under socio-political unrest dating
However, the actual deficit will most
likely end up being less, as authorities
back to mid-February. Effects include have prepared the budget using $80
a drop in economic activity, apart per barrel of oil. It is widely expected
from a higher budget deficit. that oil prices will average just above
$100 per barrel this year.
Bahrain’s Chamber of Commerce and
Industry estimates that the unrest One additional source of income is
caused economic damage of up to the promised economic assistance of
$2 billion (approximately 750m BHD). $10 billion by the Gulf Cooperation
This is a sizable amount, by virtue Council (GCC) countries. They have
of equalling 9.5 per cent of gross promised $10 billion to Bahrain and
domestic product (GDP). Bahrain has Oman over ten years to help the
a nominal GDP of $21 billion. countries cope with the unrest. On
a positive note, stronger spending
Ostensibly, the economic costs relate should help Bahrain maintain an
to damage occurring to several economic growth rate of around four
economic sectors, notably retail, per cent. Stronger spending and
hospitality and events. Reflecting the hence GDP growth helped convince
uncertainty, some locals have chosen Standard & Poor to remove the
to limit their spending to essentials, negative outlook from Bahrain's long-
and where possible delay purchases and short-term sovereign ratings
of durable goods. one notch to A-/A-2 with a negative
Also, the hospitality sector is outlook.
suffering from an overall drop in Another victim of the socio-political
the number of visitors, in particular unrest relates to raising fresh
from neighbouring Saudi Arabia, doubts on the planned causeway
simply to avoid being caught up in link with Qatar. This issue came to
street violence. Thousands of Saudi light recently following the virtual
nationals tend to cross the causeway cancellation of a joint Qatar/Bahrain
during the weekend, partly to enjoy insurance firm. Key investors in the
the liberal lifestyle in Bahrain. firm attributed the decision to a lack
Additional losses concern the of progress on the planned causeway
cancellation of events, such as the linking Qatar and Bahrain.
hosting of Formula One. The ruling The 40km causeway is to cost
body of F1 has dropped Bahrain from more than $3 billion. Yet political
the 2011 calendar due to the political differences rather than funding seem
unrest. The next time Bahrain hosts to be the primary cause for the lack
F1 is in a distant November 2012. F1 is of real progress. Looking back, the
a contributor to Bahrain's economy two countries settled a decade-long
through spending on ticket sales, TV oil border dispute in 2001 thanks
coverage, transport, accommodation, only to a ruling by the International
food and beverage, merchandise and Court of Justice. And only recently,
souvenirs and other leisure activities. Qatar-based Al Jazeera added to the
Another casualty relates to the unease by airing a programme on the
widening fiscal shortfall. Recently, the problems in Bahrain.
authorities added $860 million to the All told, economic costs related to
2011 budget to help cover a hike in political unrest stand to rise further,
salaries and pensions. This will raise which is not good for Bahrain.
total spending to a record $9.1 billion
in 2011.

Nevertheless, stronger spending
increases the deficit to $3.1 billion, or
one third of total spending. This level
of shortfall contradicts a condition
of the Gulf Monetary Union project,
which restricts the deficit to three

1 per cent of GDP.

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET Kuwait
INTELLIGENCE The IMF forecasts that Kuwait's The outlook for Kuwait's property
economy will grow steadily sector remains reasonable, with
throughout 2011 as a result of the the strength of the wider economy
government implementing its underpinning the sector. The total
development plan and the global volume of real estate transactions
recovery supporting demand for oil, in the country rose by 5.3% quarter-
together with the higher oil prices. on-quarter in Q2. This result follows
Real GDP of the world's 4th largest steady growth in the sector since
oil exporter is projected to grow by mid-2009, where the greatest growth
5.2% this year, slightly down on the has been in residential property, due
IMF's April projection of 5.3%. to government housing distribution.
Overall transaction volume is forecast
Analysts polled by Reuters earlier this to continue to rise throughout 2011.
year expected economic output to
grow by up to 4% this year in Kuwait, The government is attempting
which has seen only limited public to direct investment in the non-
protests in the political unrest that hydrocarbon sector, targeting a host
has swept other parts of the Middle of new infrastructure projects, along
East. with investment in healthcare and
education. Plans also include the
Government expenditure, excluding construction of the business hub,
energy subsidies and social security Silk City, at an estimated cost of
recapitalisation, is estimated to have US$77bn, as well as a new railway
increased by 21.5%. Expenditure and metro system. In addition to
increased in the second half of the this, the government has already
fiscal year 2010/2011, with a cash- begun the construction of three more
for-food social grant accounting for hospitals and 15 new clinics.
half of the increase. Moderate fiscal
stimulus is still appropriate at this
time.

Kuwait’s economic outlook remains
robust, with a strong energy sector
combined with a government willing
to spend massively on infrastructure
projects, underpinning our positive
view on growth potential in 2011.
This research believes that Kuwait's
economy will be only minimally
affected by the political tensions
that erupted in the start of 2011 and
forecasts growth to remain robust
at 3.4%, averaging 4.0% through to
2015.

2

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET Oman
INTELLIGENCE GDP growth is forecast to slow to International uncertainty and
4.6% this year, from an estimated market volatility are still affecting
5.5% in 2010, with a further slowdown the property market in Oman but
to 4.2% in 2012. Strong growth in growth prospects are improving for
oil and gas production will lift oil the longer term and the sector is
GDP by 4.8% this year, while non- expected to rebound slowly over the
oil GDP is forecast to increase by a coming years. Integrated Tourism
respectable 4.5%. Despite the impact Complex projects such as The Wave
of continued protests on business and Muscat Hills remain in demand
confidence and tourism, non-oil GDP due to the quality of housing and
will benefit from surging oil prices modern design.
(up 42%) and a boost from public
spending, including GCC aid. Despite Analysts report that there are some
an additional spending package of signs of increasing stability in the
US$2.6bn, the budget is forecast residential leasing market, but further
to move into a surplus of some softening of rental values can be
6.7% of GDP in 2011 from a deficit expected in the short to medium
of 2% of GDP last year. This reflects term, particularly as the supply of
an oil price forecast of US$113 per new apartments comes into the
barrel compared with the oil price market. The long term outlook is
assumption in the budget of US$58 that the market should start to show
per barrel. Inflation is forecast at just signs of recovery as the economy
below 4% both this year and next. continues to expand.

With Brent crude prices having The population of Oman has grown,
hovered between $92 and $127 per with approximately 73 per cent of the
barrel since the beginning of the population now living in urban areas.
year, Oman’s government spending The result has been an increasing
should rise to 9.2 billion rials ($23.9 need for housing designed for, and
billion) this year, slightly higher affordable to, the local population in
than the expected 8.1 billion rials. western areas of the city, such as Al
The Sultanate plans to increase Khoud and Seeb.
government spending by a further
Several developers have picked up on
9 percent in 2012 to finance
these trends and there is increasing
construction projects and create
development of affordable housing in
more jobs for nationals.
these areas.
The government’s plan to spend
The pace of development in the
a massive RO 42.71bn during the
retail sector had slowed significantly,
Eighth Five-Year Plan period (2011-
and according to reports, it would
2015) will see 37.7 percent of the total
appear that the appetite for further
budget funnelled into infrastructure
large-scale retail space has been
development.
satiated to a large degree in the
The continued weakness of the US short to medium term. Reasons for
dollar, to which the Omani Rial is this include the fact that levels of
pegged, has had an inflationary per capita disposable income are
effect on materials, which are mostly relatively low in comparison to other
imported. This has further reduced GCC countries, and that Muscat is
the margins of developers, who not seen as a shopping destination,
continue to absorb the impacts of unlike Dubai.
wage increases and transportation
costs.

3

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET Qatar
INTELLIGENCE Qatar’s economy is predicted Qatar’s construction market
to continue its rapid growth continues to show favourable signs,
trend through the rest of 2011, with clear evidence of new projects
with increases in GDP per capita underway in Doha. Below are some
expected at around 20%. The main of the major government funded
drivers for the recent rapid growth projects currently under design/
come from the ongoing increase construction in Qatar:
in production and exports of LNG,
oil, petrochemicals and related • Qatar’s US$14 billion international
industries. LNG production targets airport due to open in 2011 with
are on programme to be met at the capacity for 24 million passengers.
end of 2011 and the growth rate is
• New city areas (Lusail), port and
then expected to reduce to a more
road infrastructure with associated
modest, but steady, increase of 3 to
utility services.
4% per annum from 2012 to 2015.
• Major urban regeneration projects,
Although Qatar is currently riding on
such as the Musheireb project.
a massive hydrocarbons expansion
boom, which is driving growth • Rail transport systems, linking
rates, economic diversity is seen as Qatar to neighbouring countries.
fundamental to securing long-term
stability in the local economy. • Doha Metro system, a US$ 3
billion scheme with 85km of track
General market inflation peaked connecting Musheireb, West Bay
in 2008 at 15.5%, subsequently and Lusail.
crashing to -5% in 2009 as a
result of the economic downturn. • US$ 20 billion on road networks
Although returning to positive levels including the new Qatar / Bahrain
in 2010 the percentage increase causeway and multi lane road
remained low at around 1%. Inflation tunnels linking existing areas of
is expected to rise and stabilise Doha.
between 3 and 4% per annum from
In addition to the government
2011 to 2015.
funded projects, new retail centres,
Qatar benefited, in the first quarter healthcare facilities and residential
of 2011, from higher oil and gas prices communities have also been released
adding to the economy growth and to the market.
funding the diversification strategy.
With the announcement of Qatar as
Qatar allocated QAR 35.5 billion of
the host nation for the 2022 World
its 2010/2011 budget to infrastructure
Cup, it is no surprise that there is a
projects, which constituted 30% of
certain optimism being felt within
the total budget expenditure. Less
the Qatar construction market. With
than half way through the 2010/2011
the associated spend in the sector
financial year the Qatari budget hit
expected to be in the region of US$
a surplus of over 19 billion Riyals,
50 billion there is a lot to be done in
predominantly due to increased gas
a relatively short period of time.
production and oil prices trading
significantly above that assumed by In addition to the 12 stadia,
the government. First quarter 2011 oil additional hotels and other World
prices broke the US$100 per barrel Cup specific requirements, some
mark as a result of the widespread previously planned projects will
unrest in the Middle East. be accelerated to be ready for the
Event, including the new Doha port;
a US$7 billion project previously due
for completion in 2023. The new port
will allow cruise ships to be used to

5 accommodate fans during the games.

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET UAE
INTELLIGENCE The UAE's economy, which is the Tourism, which is one of the UAE's
second largest in the Middle East, prime economic sectors, is also
is in recovery mode, despite the increasing strongly. The Emirate's
increasingly uncertain regional biggest hotel group, Jumeirah, states
environment. This is primarily due that occupancy and room rates are
to the high oil prices and strong back to 2007 levels as a result of
demand from traditional trading a 9% growth in tourist numbers in
partners, which is boosting growth 2011. This is mainly due to the unrest
in non-hydrocarbon GDP from 2.1% in other part of the Middle East and
in 2010 to 3.3% in 2011. The UAE Northern Africa where tourists are
economy is projected to pick up regarding the UAE as a safe haven,
sharply by around 5% over the next free from any uprisings.
five years, with real GDP rebounding
to almost 3.6% in 2011, from 2.1% in The Arab unrest has also boosted
2010 and 1.6% in 2009. the financial services sector, which
suffered badly in the credit crunch.
In March 2011, the International Many banking services have
Monetary Fund, projected UAE relocated from Manama in Bahrain to
growth for 2011 at around 3.3%, but Dubai. Bahrain was Dubai's closest
has revised this upwards to to 3.5% rival in this sector. In addition, new
citing Dubai's recovery, massive banks from the BRICSA countries
spending by Abu Dhabi and high oil (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
prices. Africa) have begun to set up facilities
in UAE. Bank deposits have climbed
New figures for the key UAE sectors to their highest level in more than
of transport, tourism and trade are two years.
encouraging.

In May 2011, Emirates Airline, Dubai's
best known brand, announced a 52%
increase in profits to US$1.5 billion for
the year to 31 March 2011, compared
to US$964 million in 2010. It also
recently successfully marketed a
US$1 billion bond.

6

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET
INTELLIGENCE Economic growth has been so strong Retail malls are still experiencing
recently that MSCI, the economic some vacancies, but these are quickly
index provider, is now examining snapped up by other retailers.
whether to re classify the UAE from
"frontier" to "emerging market" by Abu Dhabi has been set to
the end of 2011. An upgrade would outperform Dubai over the coming
attract new liquidity to the UAE's years, given the former's large
bourses and encourage investment. scale investment plans targeting
the infrastructure sector, as well as
Interestingly, Dubai has been named the ongoing concerns surrounding
"Middle East City of the Future Dubai's lingering debt repayment
2010-2011" by fD Magazine, based schedule. However, a number of
on its popularity as a foreign direct Dubai's debts are being resolved
investment destination. This is a at this time and Abu Dhabi has
strong testament to its economic shown signs of slowing down its
fundamentals and growth potential. development so that it maintains
The study looked at 46 cities under sustainable levels.
six categories - economic potential,
human resources, cost effectiveness,
quality of life, infrastructure and
business friendliness.

The property real estate sector
remains under pressure in Dubai, with
the over supply situation continuing
in certain asset classes, especially
residential apartments and offices.
The prices have stabilised in certain
residential sectors and banks are now
starting to ease lending conditions,
which is contributing to an increase
in sales activities. Rentals continue to
fall in the lower to medium classes. In
Abu Dhabi, there is still a shortage of
residential and office space, but there
is a large amount of supply coming
onto the market over the next few
years.

7

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET Saudi Arabia
INTELLIGENCE The construction sector in Saudi Hospitals and healthcare facilities
Arabia is projected to achieve a 4% have received SR68.7 billion funding
growth by the end of the year and from the Health Ministry to enhance
the sector’s annual development medical health facilities throughout
is expected to be maintained at a the Kingdom equating to a 12.3 per
similar rate until 2015. Presently, cent increase over the previous
Saudi’s investment in construction year. Infrastructure pertaining to
accounts for 31 per cent of the MENA transportation and municipal services
region’s total. The top three sectors for the provision of 23,000 miles
receiving the most investment are of additional roads, traffic easing
construction, infrastructure and projects and expansion of aviation
power. networks, have received circa SAR 50
billion.
Saudi Arabia’s construction sector
recorded a significant leap in Private sector credit has continued
the first quarter of 2011, with the to track higher, albeit gradually, as
value of contracts awarded by the the Kingdom’s well-capitalised and
government increasing by more than liquid banks respond to increasing
five times that of the same period of demand from an expanding private
last year. In recent years, record high sector. Official data shows that
oil prices and large oil revenue have bank lending to the private sector
made it possible for the construction grew by 6.9 per cent in the twelve
industry to employ extra liquidity for months to April leading a multitude
its development. of private construction investment
opportunities.
The impact of the recent Arab
Spring has been varied throughout The Construction Contracts Index
the gulf region. In the Kingdom this (CCI) reached 225.5 points, an
has led the government to pledge increase of 79.02 base points in the
investment in infrastructure and first quarter, reflecting the high value
affordable housing, to which 50 of awarded contracts resulting in a
per cent of Saudi Arabia’s stimulus strong start to the year.
package of SAR 500billion will be
allocated, providing 500,000 new Following on from strong
homes. Saudi Arabia is likely to see construction growth, consumption
inflation slow in the medium – to of iron and steel in the Kingdom
long term as government spending reached 16 million tonnes in 2010. The
provides more homes and increases Saudi Arabian Steel Industry forecast
the limit on loans at the Mortgage that, by 2013, steel consumption
Development Fund. will have significantly increased and
prices will soar. Presently, the steel
The country has maintained a strong industry of Saudi Arabia is highly
sustainable demand for infrastructure import-oriented and steel imports
projects, as a direct result of the were estimated at 4 million metric
growing Saudi national population's tons in 2010. Further, it is anticipated
demographics, 66 per cent of the that the share of imported steel
population being under 25 years old. will witness an upward trend in the
coming years.

9

GULF STATES
REPORT

CONSTRUCTION
MARKET ACTIVITY
CYCLE MODEL

PEAK GROWTH PEAK DECLINE
ZONE PEAK ZONE ZONE

MID GROWTH MID ZONE MID DECLINE
ZONE ZONE

TROUGH TROUGH DECLINE
GROWTH ZONE TROUGH ZONE ZONE

LOCATION Houses Apartments Offices Industrial Retail Hotel Civil

Abu Dhabi

Bahrain

Doha

Dubai

Kuwait

Oman

Riyadh

Market Sector Movement Number of Instances
- GULF Barometer – Gulf Tally
100% 25

90%

80% 20

70%
NUMBER OF INSTANCES

60% 15

50%

40% 10

30%

20% 5

10%

0% 0
HOUSES APARTMENTS OFFICES INDUSTRIAL RETAIL HOTEL CIVIL
PEAK ZONE MID ZONE TROUGH ZONE
PEAK ZONE MID ZONE TROUGH ZONE

11

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET DATA

CONSTRUCTION RATES The following data represents estimates of current building costs in the
respective market. Costs may vary as a consequence of factors such as site
conditions, climatic conditions, standards of specification, market conditions
etc. Costs are per square metre of gross floor area.

Offices Buildings (incl Fitout) Retail Industrial

LOCATION Premium A Grade Mall Strip Shops Warehouse

Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

ABU DHABI AED 6,700 8,000 5,700 6,900 4,800 6,500 3,500 4,500 1,800 2,700

BAHRAIN BHD 525 650 425 550 375 475 225 300 125 200

DOHA QAR 7,000 8,500 6,000 7,200 5,000 6,000 3,500 4,500 2,000 3,200

DUBAI AED 6,500 7,800 5,500 6,700 4,600 6,300 3,500 4,500 1,800 2,600

Jeddah SAR 4,650 6,550 3,550 5,375 2,800 4,650 2,650 4,850 1,750 2,400

KUWAIT KWD 375 475 325 425 275 375 175 225 100 150

OMAN OMR 605 725 510 625 430 585 325 420 165 240

RIYADH SAR 4,500 6,400 3,450 5,200 2,670 4,500 2,500 3,750 1,650 2,300

Car Parking Hotels (incl Fitout) Hospital Residential

LOCATION Multi-Storey Basement 5 Star 3 Star General Multi-Storey

Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

ABU DHABI AED 1,500 3,500 2,750 4,500 9,000 12,000 7,500 9,000 7,500 10,100 4,700 6,500

BAHRAIN BHD 125 300 250 450 675 850 775 925 775 1,050 350 450

DOHA QAR 2,000 4,000 3,000 5,000 9,500 11,000 7,500 9,000 8,000 10,500 5,500 7,000

DUBAI AED 1,500 3,500 2,750 4,500 9,000 12,000 7,300 8,900 7,400 9,800 4,500 6,300

Jeddah SAR 1,475 1,900 1,950 2,900 5,800 6,800 3,950 4,900 5,800 6,800 3,400 4,700

KUWAIT KWD 100 250 200 350 500 700 550 675 550 750 300 400

OMAN OMR 140 325 255 420 835 1,115 680 830 690 910 420 585

RIYADH SAR 1,350 1,750 1,875 2,800 5,625 6,750 3,950 4,800 5,625 6,750 3,200 4,500

12

GULF STATES
REPORT

MARKET DATA Construction Cost Relativities

ABU DHABI 110

DOHA 110

DUBAI 107

JEDDAH 106

RIYADH 100

BAHRAIN 97

OMAN 93

KUWAIT 82

Construction Cost Indices 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F)

Movements Bahrain 86.7 97.9 104.8 106.9 109.0 113.8 119.4 125.2

Kuwait 75.0 81.9 88.0 90.2 92.0 96.1 101.4 106.3

Oman 77.0 87.9 97.6 101.0 105.0 108.2 111.4 117.0

Doha 73.2 96.6 115.9 121.1 122.4 128.9 138.8 147.3

Riyadh 93.0 101.1 108.6 111.3 113.6 116.4 119.9 125.9

UAE 84.9 101.8 117.1 119.5 120.6 126.1 132.8 139.7

% Movement 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F)

Bahrain 7.0% 13.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.4% 4.9% 4.9%

Kuwait 6.5% 9.2% 7.5% 2.5% 2.0% 4.4% 5.5% 4.9%

Oman 8.2% 14.1% 11.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0%

Doha 21.4% 32.0% 20.0% 4.5% 1.0% 5.3% 7.7% 6.1%

Riyadh 4.2% 8.7% 7.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0%

UAE 15.0% 20.0% 15.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.5% 5.3% 5.2%

(F) FORECAST

Notes
1. Indexation in this edition of the Gulf Report provides a direct relativity
comparison between Locations.

2. Index numbers have been re-based to align the Gulf Report with the index
base of the suite of Rider Levett Bucknall Reports. This process of re-basing
has not altered or affected the relativities shown in the current Report.

13

GULF STATES
REPORT

IRAQ

IRAN

KUWAIT
PERSIAN
GULF
BAHRAIN
QATAR GULF OF OMAN

UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES OMAN
SAUDI ARABIA

RED SEA

ARABIAN SEA

YEMEN

GULF OF ADEN

14

GULF STATES
REPORT

BAHRAIN QATAR
GDP (2010) : US$ 22.7 billion GDP (2010) : US$ 129.5 billion
GDP Growth (Year on Year) : +4.1% GDP Growth (Year on Year) : +16.3%
Inflation (2010) : +2.0% Inflation (2010) : -2.4%
Oil Production (2011 Feb, NOGA) : 40,000 bpd Oil Production (2011 2Q, IEA Oil Report) : 0.8 million bpd
Population (2010) : 1.1 million Population (2010) : 1.7 million
Population Growth (Year on Year) : +6.5% Population Growth (Year on Year) : +3.7%

IRAN saudi arabia
Inflation (2010) : +12.5% Inflation (2010) : +5.4%
Oil Production (2011 2Q, IEA Oil Report) : 3.7 million bpd Oil Production (2011 2Q, IEA Oil Report) : 8.9 million bpd

IRAQ UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

KUWAIT YEMEN

Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
OMAN National Oil and Gas Authority (NOGA)
GDP (2010) : US$ 55.6 billion International Energy Agency (IEA)
- Oil Market Report
GDP Growth (Year on Year) : +4.2%
Inflation (2010) : +3.3%
Oil Production (2011 2Q, IEA Oil Report) : 0.9 million bpd
Population (2010) : 3.0 million
Population Growth (Year on Year) : +3.4%

15

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

Caution The political turmoil across the Middle East has had a limited direct impact
on the Gulf Arab states, with the important exception of Bahrain. Overall,
reigns in the the combination of a continuous political premium on crude oil prices and
Gulf's former business perceptions of the Gulf as a relatively safe haven has been beneficial
for the region's economic prospects. However, there has been no return to
hotspots the boom times of the 2005-08 period, as both business and government are
exercising a degree of caution.

Abu Dhabi's "hibernation"
In the wake of the Dubai debt crisis Such is the opacity of government
at the end of 2009 it was commonly operations in Abu Dhabi (as in most
assumed that Abu Dhabi would take countries in the Gulf) that it has been
advantage of the situation to press hard to detect any explicit change in
ahead with its own development policy in response to these pressures.
plans, which had hitherto been However, there have been several
overshadowed by the headline- signs pointing to a shift to a more
grabbing exploits of its neighbouring conservative approach.
emirate. In 2007 Abu Dhabi released
One of the more striking was a
its “Vision 2030” document, which
comment in the prospectus issued
envisaged rapid growth of the non-oil
by the Tourism Development &
economy based on the promotion of
Investment Company (TDIC), a 100%
manufacturing alongside high-end
government-owned venture whose
tourism and real estate and initiatives
projects include the Louvre and
such as the carbon-free Masdar City.
Guggenheim museums on Saadiyat
Unlike Dubai, Abu Dhabi apparently Island. The prospectus was part of its
faced no financial constraints in initial approach to the market in June
pursuing this vision, based on its for a US$3bn medium-term note
abundant oil export revenue and borrowing.
hundreds of billions of dollars of
In an apparent effort to reassure
external assets. However, over the
prospective investors in these notes,
past 18 months it has become clear
TDIC said that it had decided to rein
that Abu Dhabi has been affected by
in its capital spending plans through
several of the symptoms that caused
"selectively hibernating, delaying or
the Dubai crisis, in particular the
scaling-back certain projects". This
collapse in property prices and the
would have the effect of reducing its
excessive borrowing of government-
capital expenditure in 2011 by almost
related entities (GREs). Having bailed
one-third to Dh13.4bn (US$3.65bn)
out Dubai to the tune of US$20bn,
from Dh18.6bn. TDIC emphasised that
the Abu Dhabi government faced
this "hibernation" would not affect
the prospect of having to perform
projects that had already started.
a similar rescue mission for its own
corporations. TDIC's debt stood at just below
US$3bn at end-2010, and the
Other worries for the Abu Dhabi
company has run up increasing
government include the stalling
net losses in the past three years,
of the recovery of the global
with the shortfall in 2010 doubling
economy, which will hit its worldwide
year on year to Dh1.15bn. The
investments, and the burden of
prospectus stated clearly that the
supporting the UAE's poorer
new notes would not be guaranteed
northern emirates, which have a
by the Abu Dhabi government,
relatively high proportion of nationals
but at the same time it made clear
among their population.
that it would continue to receive
substantial financial support from the
government. As of September 1st,
TDIC had not yet issued any of the
new debt instruments.

17

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

The travails of TDIC pale into Among the new appointments to
insignificance compared with those Mubadala's top table was Abdul-
of Abu Dhabi's highest-profile real Hamid Mohammed Saeed, the chief
estate developer, Aldar Properties, executive of First Gulf Bank. Some
which racked up losses of Dh12.5bn commentators have noted that the
in 2010, and has been kept afloat bank is chaired by Sheikh Hazza
thanks to a massive bailout package bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a member of
from the Abu Dhabi government. the ruling family whose influence
This included Dh19.4bn in cash appears to be in the ascendant. It is
inflows through asset sales to not clear whether this is in any way
and reimbursements from the to the detriment of the Crown Prince,
government for infrastructure Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan,
spending on Yas Island (site of the who has been the main driver of Abu
recently opened Ferrari World theme Dhabi's ambitious development plans
park). The government has also over the past few years, or whether
bought Dh5.5bn worth of houses and it is a matter of the ruling family
land from Aldar, and put in a further deciding collectively on a more
Dh2.8bn through a bond placement prudent approach.
with the 100% government-
owned Mubadala Development At the other end of the food chain,
Company, which is the largest single the tighter management of Abu
shareholder in Aldar. Dhabi's finances has been felt by
suppliers and contractors, who
An IMF study found that Aldar's have seen a marked slowdown in
financial performance in terms of new orders and a deterioration in
return on equity in 2010 was the payment conditions. Abu Dhabi
second-worst among regional real clients—both governmental and
estates companies (bottom of the quasi-governmental—have a
pile was another UAE developer, reputation for being slow to honour
Union Properties), and that the payments, but the situation is
aggregate performance of UAE real said to have got worse in recent
estate GREs, excluding Dubai-based months. The most common form
Emaar Properties, showed a return of payment guarantee in UAE
on equity of -5.9% compared with a business is a post-dated cheque.
positive return of 3.3% on average This is regarded as more secure
for regional peers from Saudi Arabia, than a letter of guarantee because
Qatar and Egypt. of the stiff legal penalties imposed
for failing to honour a cheque.
Other straws in the wind suggesting However, contractors are becoming
a more restrained approach to increasingly reluctant to issue post-
development projects include dated cheques to their own sub-
changes in the boards of these GREs. contractors and suppliers because
Ahmed Ali al-Sayegh was replaced in of their concerns about the risk of
April as chairman of Aldar by Ali Eid prolonged delays in getting paid by
al-Muhairi; Sayegh also subsequently their own clients.
lost his place on the Mubadala board.

18

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

Debts in perspective
The scale of Abu Dhabi's debt The change of pace in Abu Dhabi
problems—and indeed of does not mean that development
the slowdown in project and has ground to a halt. In a sign of the
development work—should not be enduring commitment to the broad
overstated. The nominal value of goals of "Vision 2030", the Abu
the debt of Abu Dhabi's GREs is Dhabi government is preparing for
US$92.4bn, according to the tally the official opening of the Sowwah
included by the IMF in its Article Island scheme. Sowwah Island had
IV consultation report issued in been designed to provide a hub for
May this year. This is bigger than financial-sector companies and other
the US$76.9bn owed by Dubai's big businesses servicing them on a
GREs. However, Dubai's total debt scale to match some of the world’s
of US$113bn is higher than the top financial centres.
US$104bn owed by Abu Dhabi (and
includes more than US$20bn owed The migration of companies to
by the government of Dubai to Abu Sowwah from other premises started
Dhabi), and Abu Dhabi's debt as as soon as the first two buildings in
a proportion of 2010 GDP is 55%, Sowwah Square opened earlier this
compared with 103% for Dubai. year. One of the downsides of the
scheme is that the migration to the
Abu Dhabi's fiscal position is also new office space on Sowwah will put
much more secure than that of its more pressure on already subdued
neighbour. Its total government commercial rents in central Abu
revenue is expected to be about Dhabi City as well as on rival new
US$77bn in 2011, thanks to an oil locations such as Reem Island and
price likely to average about US$110 Saadiyat Island.
per barrel of Brent, and the budget
will be more or less balanced. The
Dubai government, by contrast, is
expected to get revenue of only
US$12.3bn in 2011 and will run a
deficit of 1.4% of GDP (effectively
subsidised by Abu Dhabi's
refinancing of a significant portion of
its debt).

UAE: gross public and publicly held debt (US$bn)
Maturing in
2011 2012 Beyond Total
Abu Dhabi government 0.4 1.3 9.9 11.6
Abu Dhabi GREs 16.6 9.3 66.4 92.4
Total Abu Dhabi 17.1 10.6 76.4 104.0
% of Abu Dhabi 2010 GDP 8.9 5.5 54.8

Dubai government (a) 5.6 1.6 28.9 36.0
Dubai GREs 10.4 13.6 52.9 76.9
Total Dubai 16.0 15.2 81.7 113.0
% of Dubai and N. Emirates 2010 GDP 14.5 13.8 102.6

Other emirates 0.9 0.3 4.0 5.2
Federal government 19.1

Total UAE 33.1 25.8 158.1 236.0
% of UAE 2010 GDP 11.0 8.5 78.2
(a) Including GRE debt guaranteed by Dubai government.
Source: IMF Article IV report, May 2011

19

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

Whether Sowwah Island can The chief shortcoming of the new
realise its ambition to become business and financial district is
a new financial centre servicing the lack of transparent rules on
the region is also in question. The jurisdiction and its own courts. It
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange is often pointed out that Sowwah
(ADX) is the anchor tenant for the Island should model its legal set up
development and will be housed on imperfect, but working solutions
in a landmark building in Sowwah adopted by the Dubai International
Square. The construction of the Financial Centre (DIFC). While
new ADX building has already the DIFC’s legal system had to be
enticed several banks, including the adjusted since the centre opened in
National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Al 2005, especially as the system came
Hilal Bank, into buying land on the under stress with debt-restructuring
island and building offices there. procedures and the property crash, it
Several other investment banks, law has provided an effective framework
firms, private equity groups and within which to handle complex
brokerage companies are also said issues.
to be considering setting up their
headquarters on the island.

Apart from the new impressive
headquarters, ADX will also have
advanced information-transfer
technology in the new location,
offering greater speed and security
for investors. Servers transferring
data will be placed as close as
possible to the exchange to minimize
the time lag and allow almost
instantaneous trades. The new data
protection and transfer systems are
believed to provide an additional pull
for trading companies choosing to
settle on Sowwah.

20

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

No clear winners from the Arab Spring
fall-out
The plans drawn up by Abu Dhabi In this respect, Qatar can be seen as
and Dubai prior to the global a net gainer from the Arab Spring.
financial crisis were based on However, with a national population
optimistic assumptions for the of only 240,000 and the highest
growth in trade and investment flows per-capita income in the world,
in the Middle East and in the wider Qatar has the least cause among
world economy. The trimming of its Gulf peers to worry about the
the two emirates' plans since then risk of revolutionary contagion.
has been an inevitable consequence The UAE has a more complicated
of the sharp change in sentiment domestic political scene, with family
and the growing realisation that the and tribal rivalries needing to be
effects of the credit crunch and the kept under control in seven emirates
subsequent recession will be long- and solidarity between the emirates
lasting. The upheavals around the having to be preserved.
Arab world have added a further
cause for concern. The UAE’s rulers also have to take
into account the grievances of less
The popular movements against Arab privileged Emiratis and resentment
dictators have struck a chord with among sections of the population at
the younger generation in the Gulf, the predominance of expatriates in
although only in Bahrain and, to a the population mix (only about one
much lesser extent, Oman, have there in seven residents is a national). In
been any real efforts to emulate the addition, there is a risk that searching
Tahrir Square protesters. Political questions might be put by young
leaders in the Gulf have shown radicals about the management
ambivalence in their responses, of the UAE's resources and the
seemingly unsure whether to reasons for its accumulation of such
welcome change and line up with high amounts of debt. This array
the winning side, or whether to try of concerns provides part of the
to turn back a destructive tide that explanation for Abu Dhabi's decision
could overwhelm the entire political to take the pedal off its development
establishment across the Arab world. accelerator, and for the efforts being
made to widen political debate
The Qatari royal family has adapted through expanding the electoral
better than most to the new realities, college for the Federal National
in particular through its decision to Council.
become heavily involved in the NATO
operation against the Qadhafi regime Saudi Arabia's response to the
in Libya. The UAE also committed Arab revolutionary movements has
forces to the Libya operation, but, been primarily economic, with the
diplomatically, it was overshadowed king approving two development
by its Gulf neighbour. This partly spending packages worth US$130bn
reflects the strong emphasis that in total. A significant portion of this
Qatar had placed on being heavily has been allocated to beefing up
engaged in regional political issues the internal security forces; much
as part of its drive to outdo Dubai in of the remainder has been directed
projecting its influence and turning towards addressing socio-economic
the name of the state into a global problems, in particular youth
brand. unemployment among Saudis and
the chronic shortage of affordable
housing.

21

WHERE TO NOW
FOR THE GULF?

Nationals-vs-expats in Gulf demographics 2010
Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar
m % m % m %
Total population 27.1 100% 6.7 100% 1.7 100%
Nationals 18.7 69% 1.0 15% 0.24 14%
Expatriates 8.4 31% 5.7 85% 1.46 86%
Note: The UAE's National Bureau of Statistics has estimated the total
population to have been 8.26m in mid-2010, of which 11.4% were nationals;
the EIU has a lower total, reflecting doubts about the assumptions
underlying the official estimates.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates derived from national census data.

The reaction of the Saudi royal family One of these will be the chemicals
clearly betrays their recognition and plastics industry. This will be built
of the potential for popular unrest on the platform of petrochemicals,
in the kingdom. However, at the a sector in which Saudi Arabia
same time, Saudi Arabia's relatively already has a commanding global
large national population by Gulf presence through Saudi Basic
standards—about 19m out of a Industries Corporation (Sabic),
total regional population of 27m in newly established affiliates of Saudi
2010—offers it a better opportunity Aramco, the national oil company,
for nationally focused economic and a number of smaller, private,
diversification than in the other ventures.
Gulf Arab states. The ambitious
development plans of Qatar and In July the industry took a major step
Abu Dhabi, for example, are aimed forward with the announcement by
ultimately at creating high-value Dow Chemical and Saudi Aramco
jobs for locals, but would inevitably that they had taken their final
suck in more expatriate labour and investment decision for a US$20bn
further distort the demographic venture to produce petrochemicals
balance towards expatriates. and a large range of chemicals and
Similar considerations are bound plastics at a new plant in Jubail.
to apply in Saudi Arabia, but to This venture, named Sadara, has
a less pronounced extent as the been under discussion for four years
kinds of jobs that Saudis are already and has gone through a number of
prepared to accept are much more permutations. Its launch means that
diversified—even menial—than is the Saudi Arabia now has the chance to
case for Qataris and Emiratis. make a major shift to higher value-
added products and more labour-
The Saudi government faces long- intensive activities fed ultimately by
term issues of fiscal sustainability, its huge resources of oil and gas.
with one recent projection by a Saudi
bank's research team showing that Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to similar
on current trends Saudi Arabia would political upheavals as those that
need an oil price of over US$300/ have occurred elsewhere in the
barrel (in today's dollars) in 2030 to Arab world. However, its economic
balance its budget. In reality, Saudi position, bolstered by a large
Arabia is likely to have developed windfall from higher oil prices and
sufficient alternative revenue production (as it has boosted output
This article was contributed by streams by that time to make such to compensate for the loss of Libyan
David Butter, Regional Director, projections meaningless. crude) provides it with a solid buffer
Middle East & North Africa to protect it from these political risks.
and ViewsWire Editor, Middle East,
with the Economist Intelligence Unit

22

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