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Supply Chain Management in a
Promotional Environment
Presenter
Nazim Hussain Roll # 02
Syed Ahmed Nisar Roll #
Supply Chain
Coordination
What is the cause for the bullwhip effect?
• Trade Promotion
• Information/Communication lags
• Delivery lags
• No forecast-related information
sharing
Create demand variability
amplification
What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect?
1. Operational improvements
• Lead time reduction from manufacturing
• Efficient order transmission
• Smooth delivery
What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect?
2. Information sharing
• Point-of-sales scanner data
• Logic for orders each period
• Revision of upcoming forecast
What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect?
3. Channel alignment
• Manufacturing Location
• Distribution
Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative
Planning
• Promotions and the Consumer
• Low price promotion, high consumer response
• High-low pricing strategy for premium brands
Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative
Planning
• Efficient Promotion Forecasts
i) information sharing between
manufacturer and retailer
Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative
Planning
• Efficient Promotion Forecasts
ii) variety effects,
• effects of offering multiple package sizes
• small package high price/piece
• large package low price/piece
Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative
Planning
• Efficient Promotion Forecasts
• Stockpiling Behavior
Syed Ahmed Nisar
Collaborative Planning,
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
• Analyze demand swings
due to promotions
Collaborative Planning,
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
• “Strategy and Planning”
refers to a formal agreement
to collaborate on joint
business plans between a
manufacturer and a retailer.
Collaborative Planning,
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
• “Demand and Supply
Management” imply frequent
exchange of sales and order
forecasts.
Collaborative Planning,
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
• “Execution” deals with
accuracy in order generation
and fulfillment.
Collaborative Planning,
Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR)
• “Analysis” promotes
exception handling and
performance assessment on a
continuous basis.
The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model
• The Fallacy of Forecasting Single Stock-Keeping-Units
The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model
• Package Size Switching and Stockpiling Behaviour
The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model
• Package Size Switching and Stockpiling
Behaviour
• These idiosyncracies lead us to believe that
one needs to incorporate a consumer choice
model where sales are affected by the price
differences between package sizes each
period.
The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model
• Package Size Switching and Stockpiling
Behaviour
• we aggregated demand of all packages and
determined the average price paid as the
demand-weighted price across the various
package sizes
The forecasting model using two customer segments
• First, we have to solicit consumer reactions to price promotions, e.g., determine
their switching behavior across package sizes.
• Second, the aggregate forecast has to be broken down into forecasts at the
individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level.
Accuracy of fit of the unit demand forecasting model
An Out line for careful consideration of consumer response to
promotions
• a. Aggregate the sales data to see unexplainable issues at the
SKU level
• b. Model the customer reaction to promotions, i.e., switching
across package sizes and stockpiling
• c. Synchronize shipments with demand pull information to
make promotions work for both the manufacturer and the
retailer
Promotion Forecasts and CPFR
• Retailer Perspective on CPFR
• Market research data, POS data and information obtained through loyalty programs
• Manufacturer Perspective on CPFR
• Product attributes, trade promotions and overall logistics capability
• Supply Chain Collaboration
• The joint retailer-manufacturer considerations represent the most accurate picture of SKU-level demand
in the supply chain. Clearly this suggests the value of collaboration between the manufacturer and the
retailer to better understand the consumer response.

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Retail Presentation.pptx

  • 1. Supply Chain Management in a Promotional Environment Presenter Nazim Hussain Roll # 02 Syed Ahmed Nisar Roll #
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5. What is the cause for the bullwhip effect? • Trade Promotion • Information/Communication lags • Delivery lags • No forecast-related information sharing Create demand variability amplification
  • 6.
  • 7. What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect? 1. Operational improvements • Lead time reduction from manufacturing • Efficient order transmission • Smooth delivery
  • 8. What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect? 2. Information sharing • Point-of-sales scanner data • Logic for orders each period • Revision of upcoming forecast
  • 9. What can one do to alleviate the bullwhip effect? 3. Channel alignment • Manufacturing Location • Distribution
  • 10. Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative Planning • Promotions and the Consumer • Low price promotion, high consumer response • High-low pricing strategy for premium brands
  • 11. Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative Planning • Efficient Promotion Forecasts i) information sharing between manufacturer and retailer
  • 12.
  • 13. Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative Planning • Efficient Promotion Forecasts ii) variety effects, • effects of offering multiple package sizes • small package high price/piece • large package low price/piece
  • 14. Improving Promotion Forecast Accuracy and Collaborative Planning • Efficient Promotion Forecasts • Stockpiling Behavior
  • 16. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) • Analyze demand swings due to promotions
  • 17. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) • “Strategy and Planning” refers to a formal agreement to collaborate on joint business plans between a manufacturer and a retailer.
  • 18. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) • “Demand and Supply Management” imply frequent exchange of sales and order forecasts.
  • 19. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) • “Execution” deals with accuracy in order generation and fulfillment.
  • 20. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) • “Analysis” promotes exception handling and performance assessment on a continuous basis.
  • 21. The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model • The Fallacy of Forecasting Single Stock-Keeping-Units
  • 22. The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model • Package Size Switching and Stockpiling Behaviour
  • 23. The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model • Package Size Switching and Stockpiling Behaviour • These idiosyncracies lead us to believe that one needs to incorporate a consumer choice model where sales are affected by the price differences between package sizes each period.
  • 24. The S.M.A.R.T.S. Model • Package Size Switching and Stockpiling Behaviour • we aggregated demand of all packages and determined the average price paid as the demand-weighted price across the various package sizes
  • 25. The forecasting model using two customer segments • First, we have to solicit consumer reactions to price promotions, e.g., determine their switching behavior across package sizes. • Second, the aggregate forecast has to be broken down into forecasts at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level.
  • 26. Accuracy of fit of the unit demand forecasting model
  • 27. An Out line for careful consideration of consumer response to promotions • a. Aggregate the sales data to see unexplainable issues at the SKU level • b. Model the customer reaction to promotions, i.e., switching across package sizes and stockpiling • c. Synchronize shipments with demand pull information to make promotions work for both the manufacturer and the retailer
  • 28. Promotion Forecasts and CPFR • Retailer Perspective on CPFR • Market research data, POS data and information obtained through loyalty programs • Manufacturer Perspective on CPFR • Product attributes, trade promotions and overall logistics capability • Supply Chain Collaboration • The joint retailer-manufacturer considerations represent the most accurate picture of SKU-level demand in the supply chain. Clearly this suggests the value of collaboration between the manufacturer and the retailer to better understand the consumer response.