This document summarizes the results of national and regional biodiversity modeling work conducted through collaboration between various Central American organizations. The objectives were to implement a scientifically supported methodology to assess biodiversity in the region, adapt global models to national contexts, integrate biodiversity into policymaking, and develop local modeling capacity. National teams were trained and produced baseline scenarios and policy alternatives. Inputs including land use and ecosystem maps were incorporated. The preliminary regional and national modeling results were presented to support environmental management and decisionmaking, with the understanding that further refinement is still needed.

1. National and Regional GLOBIO Modelingresults Denisse McLean Belize, August 2010.

2. Modeling Work in Central America Colaboration between Central American Commission (CCAD) – IRBIO - PBL In line withthecommitmentsadoptedwith CBD First regional evaluationbuiltuponnational individual evaluations

3. Modeling Work in Central America Objectives: To implement a scientifically supported methodology in the Central American region To adapt a global methodology to a regional – national context To integrate the topic of biodiversity in the policy making process To develop local biodiversity modeling capacity

4. Regional teamcoordination Establishment of the regional advanceteam in charge of thefirstmodelingexercise: MSA valuerevisionteam Scenariodevelopmentteam Modelationteam Team training in themethodology Coordination of linkedwork

5. Local capacitydevelopment Training fornationalenvironmentalauthorities’ technicians Firstbasic GLOBIOmodelingmethodologyworkshop Secondadvanced CLUE land use modelingworkshop Input informationexchangefor regional modeling

7. Nationalland use maps

8. Road maps

9. Populationdensitymaps

10. Ecosystemmaps

11. Teaminformation

12. Modelparameters

13. Scenarios

14. MSA valuesevaluation

16. Assumptions PolicyoptionsbasedonBaselinescenarioprojections Independencybetweenoptions Political and climaticstability Variables relatedtoland use changewereincluded The values of some variables wereapproximated

17. Scenario figures Supportinformation Data series Projections Files Articles Sistematiclack of informationforevery country and everyland use

18. Obtainedproducts National and regional maps Aggregated figures Reports Data bases Developed local capacity

19. Regional Results

20. Regional Results

21. Regional Results

22. Regional Results

23. Regional Results

24. Regional Results - PA

25. Regional Results - PA

26. Regional Results - PA

27. Regional Results - PA

28. NationalResults

29. NationalResults

30. NationalResults CurrentState BaselineScenario ALIDES Scenario Free TradeScenario

31. NationalResults

32. NationalResults

33. FollowingSteps In thecountries: Reportrevision Improvement of informationquality Comparison of resultsbetweencountries Embedding of results in politicalprocesses Evaluation of new scenarios PARCA III FTA EuropeanUnion Aquaticecosystem module

34. FollowingSteps In the Project: Model transfer and follow up Resultpresentationtointerestedstakeholders Analysis of policyimplications Toolimprovements

35. Primer ejercicio metodológico. No se trata de un análisis exhaustivo, definitivo, de nivel científico de precisión. Existe información más actualizada y/o validada que no pudo ser integrada. Por lo tanto, los resultados no se consideran validados ni oficializados por los países. Reportclarifications

36. The objective of theexercisewastobuildthefirst preliminar approximationtothestate and trends in biodiversity in terms of the Mean Species Abundancefromthe data available at themoment of modelapplicationaccordingtothesourcesconsultedand todeliverthesemodelstothecountries. Reportclarifications

37. The resultswithprovidethecountrieswith a valuabletooltosupporttheirenvironmentalmanagement and decisionmaking. The models can beused as aninstrumenttostimulatediscussion and tointegratethetopic of biodiversityintoothersectorsthroughtheconsideration, planning and design of policyalternatives. Reportclarifications

38. Countries are expectedtomaintainthemodelsbyimprovingresultswithupdatedinformation and byevaluating new scenariosand policyoptionsaccordingtoemergingneeds, possibilities and interests in each country orwithinthewholeregion. Reportclarifications

39. Isthequality of the input informationenoughto derive conclusionsfromresults? Whatconclusions can bederivedfornational and regional policies? Whichapplications can bemadewiththeresults and themodels? Pointstodiscuss

40. Howtokeepthemodelingcapacity in thecountries? Whichpoliticalprocesseswouldbethemostadequatetoembedthemodels? Whichaspectstoimprove? F.E. Quality of input information, MSA values, validation Isitnecessarytohave a follow up? In whichareasshouldthefollow up beimplemented? Pointstodiscuss

41. Listthecurrentpolicies in the country thatimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use Listtheupcomingpolicies in the country thatcouldimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use Pointstodiscuss

42. Questions and Comments Thankyou