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ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP)
Paradigm Shifting Business for Extraordinary Return
December 2, 2015
Poon Panichpibool
p.panichpibool@gmail.com
Healthcare Group of Global Markets Group
University of Virginia
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Agenda
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Support from the Japan Government
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
2 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
ReproCell-Innovator in iPS and ESa field
aiPS cell-induced pluripoten stem cell. ES cell-embryonic stem cell.
Who is ReproCell?
Biotech company engage in development of sophisticated
stem cell technologies; iPS and ES cell.
1The world’s first commercialized iPS cell - Human iPSC-derived
cardiomyocytes and Human iPSC-derived neurons. Drew global attention as a
way to replace animal experiments.
2A niche market that large analysis companies are not engaging.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
2 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
ReproCell-Innovator in iPS and ESa field
aiPS cell-induced pluripoten stem cell. ES cell-embryonic stem cell.
Who is ReproCell?
Biotech company engage in development of sophisticated
stem cell technologies; iPS and ES cell.
Two main business segments
1. iPS Cell business - Manufacture Research reagents for
human iPS/ES cell research and Provide human
iPS-derived functional cells used in drug discovery
screening1
2. Clinical testing service business - Provide testing services
specialized in bone-marrow transplant and organ
transplant.2
1The world’s first commercialized iPS cell - Human iPSC-derived
cardiomyocytes and Human iPSC-derived neurons. Drew global attention as a
way to replace animal experiments.
2A niche market that large analysis companies are not engaging.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
3 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Global provider of differentiated cell types including
iPSC-derived hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, and
Glu/Ach/DA neurons.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
3 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Global provider of differentiated cell types including
iPSC-derived hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, and
Glu/Ach/DA neurons.
Own Extensive portfolio of embryonic stem cell and
induced pluripotent stem cell culture reagents.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
4 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products
and services supporting and addressing the needs of
researchers and clinicians.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
4 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products
and services supporting and addressing the needs of
researchers and clinicians.
1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is
cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in
iPS cell production.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
4 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products
and services supporting and addressing the needs of
researchers and clinicians.
1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is
cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in
iPS cell production.
2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue
banks in the World.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
4 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products
and services supporting and addressing the needs of
researchers and clinicians.
1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is
cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in
iPS cell production.
2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue
banks in the World.
3. Reinnervate - Provide advanced technology in 3D cell
culture, rapidly growing business.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
4 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products
and services supporting and addressing the needs of
researchers and clinicians.
1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is
cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in
iPS cell production.
2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue
banks in the World.
3. Reinnervate - Provide advanced technology in 3D cell
culture, rapidly growing business.
4. Biopta - Drug development Support Service provider to
major pharma manufacturers by receiving and utilizing
human fresh tissues and organs from the UK and the US.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
5 Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Business Overview
iPS and ES cell-The Future of Healthcare Industry
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
6 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry
estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2
Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion
yen in 2050.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
6 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry
estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2
Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion
yen in 2050.
From 50 Trillion yen forecast market, about 42 Trillion yen
is a relevant market for ReproCell.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
6 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry
estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2
Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion
yen in 2050.
From 50 Trillion yen forecast market, about 42 Trillion yen
is a relevant market for ReproCell.
ReproCell has a Mid and Long term growth strategy to
become a leader in the high business potential field of
regenerative medicine.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
7 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
8 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Figure: Credit
https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/regenerative-medicines-market
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
9 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
ReproCell has a Mid and Long term growth strategy to
become a leader in the high business potential field of
regenerative medicine.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
10 Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth opportunity
Mid and Long term plan has been boost the Company’s
revenue. On target to become a Global leader in
regenerative medicine business3
.
3Sales in Millions of JPY
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
11 Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Support from the Japan Government
A Special Zone for iPS Cell Research and Development.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
12 Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Support from the Japan Government
Legislation supports businesses working on regenerative
medicine.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
13 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
The Power of Synergy-One-Stop solution for Wide
varieties of iPS&ES cell products
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
14 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Benefit from the World’s largest human tissue sample
Bank = More iPS&ES cell products
Cutting-Edge technologies in mRNA reprogramming and
3D cell culture increase efficiency and safety significantly.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
15 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Biopta Acquisition will further expand the business through
drug development support services.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
16 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Global Scale Marketing channel and Expanding
internet sales
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
17 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Global Research Network
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
18 4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
4 Unique Competitive Edges
Acquiring promising seed technologies via a Venture
Fund - Cell Innovation Partners
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
19 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
BOJ’s QQE
Since the launch of QQE program in early 2013, the
Japanese market has been in a bullish trend.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
19 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
BOJ’s QQE
Since the launch of QQE program in early 2013, the
Japanese market has been in a bullish trend.
With divergent monetary policy between the Fed and the
BOJ, JPY will be further weaken. Hence, it is supportive
for exporter like Japan.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
20 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
Figure: TOPIX weekly chart from January 2013 to December 2015.
Strong uptrend with two golden crosses.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
21 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
Institutional Investors Support
The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of
Japan raised domestic stock allocation from 12% to 25%. .
The World’s largest public pension fund remain “Bullish”.
Keep funds flowing into the market.
Recent abnormal surge in volume and On Balance
Volume (OBV) could imply institutional investors’ shares
accumulation.
Institutional investors can drive stock price significantly.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
22 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
Figure: Most recent Assets Allocation of GPIF.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
23 Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Key Thesis Points
Tactical Asset Allocation
Figure: ReproCell 1 year Weekly Chart. Surge in volume and OBV
support this new uptrend.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
24 Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Macro Global Risk
China Economy Slowdown
As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does
matter, any slowdown will affect global growth.
Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and
Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
24 Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Macro Global Risk
China Economy Slowdown
As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does
matter, any slowdown will affect global growth.
Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be
tampered by the China’s slow down.
Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and
Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
24 Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Macro Global Risk
China Economy Slowdown
As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does
matter, any slowdown will affect global growth.
Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be
tampered by the China’s slow down.
Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and
Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
If the QQE program fail, the consequence can be much
worse than "the Lost Decade of Japan".
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
24 Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Macro Global Risk
China Economy Slowdown
As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does
matter, any slowdown will affect global growth.
Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be
tampered by the China’s slow down.
Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and
Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
If the QQE program fail, the consequence can be much
worse than "the Lost Decade of Japan".
Investors will lose confidence in the Japanese equities
which lead to market sell off.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
25 Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Social, Political, and Legislative Risk
Changing in Healthcare regulation
Any change in regulation can potentially affect ReproCell’s
business.
However, with the Japan’s government support on
regenerative medicine business via the newly registered
PMDA4
, this risk is subsided.
4The Act on the Safety of Regenerative Medicine, and Pharmaceutical and
Medical Device Act or PMDA enforced on November 25 2014. More
information http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/policy/health-medical/
medical-care/dl/150407-01.pdf
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
26 Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Currency Risk
Weak Japanese Yen due to BOJ’s QQE
Japanese Yen will continue weakening as a result of BOJ’s
QQE.
Fed’s decision on interest rate will affect the direction of
USD/JPY.
Long YCS to mitigate the FX risk
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) will allow investors to
hedge FX risk.
Possible ratio of 2:1 hedging to stay fully hedged5
.
5But not perfectly 100% hedged
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
27 Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Language Barrier
Lost in translation (Japanese)
Most Japanese companies will release their materials in
both Japanese and English.
However, it does take awhile until they put English version
on their IR website.
Use Bloomberg terminal, Capital IQ, Thomson Reuters
Eikon, and
http://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/default.aspx to
keep update on earning and news.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
28 Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Risks
Difficult Money Management
Trading in a board lot
Unlike the US market, trading a stock in the Japanese
market is done in a unit of a board Lot.
i.e. 1 Lot = 100 shares, 1000 shares.
It can be difficult to completely control money
management.
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
29 Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
For a comparable analysis, 8 Japanese companies were used
to calculate multiples6
as shown in the following table.
Company EV/Sales P/TBV7
Takara Bio (4974) 4.7x 2.8x
Tella (2191) 6.5x 7.0x
Medinet (2370) 7.2x 2.2x
MediBIC (2369) 14.1x 13.3x
Japan Tissue Engi-
neering (7774)
27.6x 5.8x
CellSeed (7776) 53.6x 2.7x
HealiosK.K. (4593) 161.1x 22.1x
ReproCell (4978) 20.6x 4.5x
6Most companies have negative earning, hence, only two multiples were
used.
7Multiples from Capital IQ
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
30 Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Here are different implied share prices.
Share Price Share Price
from from
EV/Sales P/TBV8
High 2,799 2,142
Low 170 211
Mean 751 773
Median 329 561
8Share Price in JPY
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
31 Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
DCF
To calculate target price using DCF, here are assumptions.
WACC calculation
1. Corporate TaxRate = 3.64%9
2. Risk Free Rate = 10yr JGB = 0.32%10
3. Risk Premium = 6.8%11
4. Equity β = 0.312
5. Industry Equity β = 2.7
6. Cost of Debt = 6.87%
7. Cost of Equity-Company = 2.4%
9http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/
datacurrent.html#capstru, due to Government Support in Biotech.
Normally, tax rate = 33% after the most recent cut from Abenomics.
10Bloomberg
11http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/
ctryprem.html
12CapitalIQ
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
32 Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
DCF
Growth rate
1. Revenue Growth rate = 35% conservative case13
2. Revenue Growth rate = 70% case 214
DCF target price
1. Case 1 - Conservative case = 535 JPY
2. Case 2 - 1% Market Share case = 1,248 JPY
13Much less than company’s forecast growth at 150%
14Assume that ReproCell has 1% of 2020 Global Market Share (2 Trillions
JPY)
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
33 Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
Technical Analysis
ReproCell share price just broke out from a long
downtrend resistance.
From the recent movement, the target price will be at
1.618 Fibonacci Extensions which is 639 JPY.
Figure: 3 Months Daily chart of Reprocell (4978:JP)
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
34 Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
Contact Information
Valuation
Summary
Summary of Valuation
Method Target Upside RRR15
Price (JPY)
Downside
(%)
EV/Revenue
(Comp.)
328 -24 -0.33
P/TBV (Comp.) 560 29 0.28
DCF1 535 23 0.34
DCF2 1,248 187 0.04
Fib. Extensions 639 47 0.17
15RRR=Risk Reward Ratio=Risk/Reward; Assume Risk is 8% cutloss.
Ideally, prefer RRR < 0.50
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
35 Question?
Contact Information
Q&A
Questions Time
The only way you get a real
education in the market is
To invest cash, Track your
trade, and Study your
mistakes.
Jesse Livermore
If you have any question, please feel free to ask me.
Credit to sharelatex website. 16
16This presentation is created by LATEX
36
ReproCell, Inc.
(4978:JP)
Poon Panichpibool
Business Overview
Key Thesis Points
Long term growth
opportunity
Support from the Japan
Government
4 Unique Competitive
Edges
Tactical Asset Allocation
Risks
Macro Global Risk
Social, Political, and
Legislative Risk
Currency Risk
Language Barrier
Difficult Money
Management
Valuation
Comparable Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow
Technical Analysis
Summary of Valuation
Q&A
Question?
36 Contact Information
Q&A
Contact Information
In case you have any comments, suggestions or have found
additional information, please do not hesitate to contact me.
You can find my contact details below.
Poon Panichpibool
p.panichpibool@gmail.com
2021 Ivy Road, Apt. B4
Charlottesville, VA 22903
Thank you for your attention!

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Repro cell presentation

  • 1. ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Paradigm Shifting Business for Extraordinary Return December 2, 2015 Poon Panichpibool p.panichpibool@gmail.com Healthcare Group of Global Markets Group University of Virginia
  • 2. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Agenda Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question?
  • 3. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 2 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview ReproCell-Innovator in iPS and ESa field aiPS cell-induced pluripoten stem cell. ES cell-embryonic stem cell. Who is ReproCell? Biotech company engage in development of sophisticated stem cell technologies; iPS and ES cell. 1The world’s first commercialized iPS cell - Human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes and Human iPSC-derived neurons. Drew global attention as a way to replace animal experiments. 2A niche market that large analysis companies are not engaging.
  • 4. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 2 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview ReproCell-Innovator in iPS and ESa field aiPS cell-induced pluripoten stem cell. ES cell-embryonic stem cell. Who is ReproCell? Biotech company engage in development of sophisticated stem cell technologies; iPS and ES cell. Two main business segments 1. iPS Cell business - Manufacture Research reagents for human iPS/ES cell research and Provide human iPS-derived functional cells used in drug discovery screening1 2. Clinical testing service business - Provide testing services specialized in bone-marrow transplant and organ transplant.2 1The world’s first commercialized iPS cell - Human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes and Human iPSC-derived neurons. Drew global attention as a way to replace animal experiments. 2A niche market that large analysis companies are not engaging.
  • 5. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 3 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Global provider of differentiated cell types including iPSC-derived hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, and Glu/Ach/DA neurons.
  • 6. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 3 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Global provider of differentiated cell types including iPSC-derived hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, and Glu/Ach/DA neurons. Own Extensive portfolio of embryonic stem cell and induced pluripotent stem cell culture reagents.
  • 7. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 4 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products and services supporting and addressing the needs of researchers and clinicians.
  • 8. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 4 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products and services supporting and addressing the needs of researchers and clinicians. 1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in iPS cell production.
  • 9. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 4 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products and services supporting and addressing the needs of researchers and clinicians. 1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in iPS cell production. 2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue banks in the World.
  • 10. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 4 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products and services supporting and addressing the needs of researchers and clinicians. 1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in iPS cell production. 2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue banks in the World. 3. Reinnervate - Provide advanced technology in 3D cell culture, rapidly growing business.
  • 11. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 4 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview Through 4 subsidiaries expanding portfolio of products and services supporting and addressing the needs of researchers and clinicians. 1. Stemgent - Provide mRNA Reprogramming which is cutting-edge technology to increase efficiency and safety in iPS cell production. 2. Bioserve - One of the Largest commercial human tissue banks in the World. 3. Reinnervate - Provide advanced technology in 3D cell culture, rapidly growing business. 4. Biopta - Drug development Support Service provider to major pharma manufacturers by receiving and utilizing human fresh tissues and organs from the UK and the US.
  • 12. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool 5 Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Business Overview iPS and ES cell-The Future of Healthcare Industry
  • 13. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 6 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2 Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion yen in 2050.
  • 14. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 6 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2 Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion yen in 2050. From 50 Trillion yen forecast market, about 42 Trillion yen is a relevant market for ReproCell.
  • 15. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 6 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry estimated the Regenerative Medicine market will grow to 2 Trillion yen in 2020, 17 Trillion yen in 2030, and 50 Trillion yen in 2050. From 50 Trillion yen forecast market, about 42 Trillion yen is a relevant market for ReproCell. ReproCell has a Mid and Long term growth strategy to become a leader in the high business potential field of regenerative medicine.
  • 16. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 7 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity
  • 17. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 8 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Figure: Credit https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/regenerative-medicines-market
  • 18. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 9 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity ReproCell has a Mid and Long term growth strategy to become a leader in the high business potential field of regenerative medicine.
  • 19. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points 10 Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Mid and Long term plan has been boost the Company’s revenue. On target to become a Global leader in regenerative medicine business3 . 3Sales in Millions of JPY
  • 20. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity 11 Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Support from the Japan Government A Special Zone for iPS Cell Research and Development.
  • 21. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity 12 Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Support from the Japan Government Legislation supports businesses working on regenerative medicine.
  • 22. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 13 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges The Power of Synergy-One-Stop solution for Wide varieties of iPS&ES cell products
  • 23. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 14 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges Benefit from the World’s largest human tissue sample Bank = More iPS&ES cell products Cutting-Edge technologies in mRNA reprogramming and 3D cell culture increase efficiency and safety significantly.
  • 24. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 15 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges Biopta Acquisition will further expand the business through drug development support services.
  • 25. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 16 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges Global Scale Marketing channel and Expanding internet sales
  • 26. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 17 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges Global Research Network
  • 27. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 18 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points 4 Unique Competitive Edges Acquiring promising seed technologies via a Venture Fund - Cell Innovation Partners
  • 28. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 19 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation BOJ’s QQE Since the launch of QQE program in early 2013, the Japanese market has been in a bullish trend.
  • 29. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 19 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation BOJ’s QQE Since the launch of QQE program in early 2013, the Japanese market has been in a bullish trend. With divergent monetary policy between the Fed and the BOJ, JPY will be further weaken. Hence, it is supportive for exporter like Japan.
  • 30. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 20 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation Figure: TOPIX weekly chart from January 2013 to December 2015. Strong uptrend with two golden crosses.
  • 31. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 21 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation Institutional Investors Support The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan raised domestic stock allocation from 12% to 25%. . The World’s largest public pension fund remain “Bullish”. Keep funds flowing into the market. Recent abnormal surge in volume and On Balance Volume (OBV) could imply institutional investors’ shares accumulation. Institutional investors can drive stock price significantly.
  • 32. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 22 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation Figure: Most recent Assets Allocation of GPIF.
  • 33. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges 23 Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Key Thesis Points Tactical Asset Allocation Figure: ReproCell 1 year Weekly Chart. Surge in volume and OBV support this new uptrend.
  • 34. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks 24 Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Macro Global Risk China Economy Slowdown As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does matter, any slowdown will affect global growth. Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
  • 35. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks 24 Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Macro Global Risk China Economy Slowdown As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does matter, any slowdown will affect global growth. Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be tampered by the China’s slow down. Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE)
  • 36. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks 24 Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Macro Global Risk China Economy Slowdown As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does matter, any slowdown will affect global growth. Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be tampered by the China’s slow down. Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE) If the QQE program fail, the consequence can be much worse than "the Lost Decade of Japan".
  • 37. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks 24 Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Macro Global Risk China Economy Slowdown As the 2nd biggest Economy, China’s economy does matter, any slowdown will affect global growth. Unavoidably, the recovery of Japan’s economy can be tampered by the China’s slow down. Failure of Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative program (BOJ’s QQE) If the QQE program fail, the consequence can be much worse than "the Lost Decade of Japan". Investors will lose confidence in the Japanese equities which lead to market sell off.
  • 38. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk 25 Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Changing in Healthcare regulation Any change in regulation can potentially affect ReproCell’s business. However, with the Japan’s government support on regenerative medicine business via the newly registered PMDA4 , this risk is subsided. 4The Act on the Safety of Regenerative Medicine, and Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Act or PMDA enforced on November 25 2014. More information http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/policy/health-medical/ medical-care/dl/150407-01.pdf
  • 39. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk 26 Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Currency Risk Weak Japanese Yen due to BOJ’s QQE Japanese Yen will continue weakening as a result of BOJ’s QQE. Fed’s decision on interest rate will affect the direction of USD/JPY. Long YCS to mitigate the FX risk ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) will allow investors to hedge FX risk. Possible ratio of 2:1 hedging to stay fully hedged5 . 5But not perfectly 100% hedged
  • 40. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk 27 Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Language Barrier Lost in translation (Japanese) Most Japanese companies will release their materials in both Japanese and English. However, it does take awhile until they put English version on their IR website. Use Bloomberg terminal, Capital IQ, Thomson Reuters Eikon, and http://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/default.aspx to keep update on earning and news.
  • 41. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier 28 Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Risks Difficult Money Management Trading in a board lot Unlike the US market, trading a stock in the Japanese market is done in a unit of a board Lot. i.e. 1 Lot = 100 shares, 1000 shares. It can be difficult to completely control money management.
  • 42. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation 29 Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation Comparable Analysis For a comparable analysis, 8 Japanese companies were used to calculate multiples6 as shown in the following table. Company EV/Sales P/TBV7 Takara Bio (4974) 4.7x 2.8x Tella (2191) 6.5x 7.0x Medinet (2370) 7.2x 2.2x MediBIC (2369) 14.1x 13.3x Japan Tissue Engi- neering (7774) 27.6x 5.8x CellSeed (7776) 53.6x 2.7x HealiosK.K. (4593) 161.1x 22.1x ReproCell (4978) 20.6x 4.5x 6Most companies have negative earning, hence, only two multiples were used. 7Multiples from Capital IQ
  • 43. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation 30 Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation Comparable Analysis Here are different implied share prices. Share Price Share Price from from EV/Sales P/TBV8 High 2,799 2,142 Low 170 211 Mean 751 773 Median 329 561 8Share Price in JPY
  • 44. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis 31 Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation DCF To calculate target price using DCF, here are assumptions. WACC calculation 1. Corporate TaxRate = 3.64%9 2. Risk Free Rate = 10yr JGB = 0.32%10 3. Risk Premium = 6.8%11 4. Equity β = 0.312 5. Industry Equity β = 2.7 6. Cost of Debt = 6.87% 7. Cost of Equity-Company = 2.4% 9http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/ datacurrent.html#capstru, due to Government Support in Biotech. Normally, tax rate = 33% after the most recent cut from Abenomics. 10Bloomberg 11http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ ctryprem.html 12CapitalIQ
  • 45. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis 32 Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation DCF Growth rate 1. Revenue Growth rate = 35% conservative case13 2. Revenue Growth rate = 70% case 214 DCF target price 1. Case 1 - Conservative case = 535 JPY 2. Case 2 - 1% Market Share case = 1,248 JPY 13Much less than company’s forecast growth at 150% 14Assume that ReproCell has 1% of 2020 Global Market Share (2 Trillions JPY)
  • 46. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow 33 Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation Technical Analysis ReproCell share price just broke out from a long downtrend resistance. From the recent movement, the target price will be at 1.618 Fibonacci Extensions which is 639 JPY. Figure: 3 Months Daily chart of Reprocell (4978:JP)
  • 47. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis 34 Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? Contact Information Valuation Summary Summary of Valuation Method Target Upside RRR15 Price (JPY) Downside (%) EV/Revenue (Comp.) 328 -24 -0.33 P/TBV (Comp.) 560 29 0.28 DCF1 535 23 0.34 DCF2 1,248 187 0.04 Fib. Extensions 639 47 0.17 15RRR=Risk Reward Ratio=Risk/Reward; Assume Risk is 8% cutloss. Ideally, prefer RRR < 0.50
  • 48. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A 35 Question? Contact Information Q&A Questions Time The only way you get a real education in the market is To invest cash, Track your trade, and Study your mistakes. Jesse Livermore If you have any question, please feel free to ask me. Credit to sharelatex website. 16 16This presentation is created by LATEX
  • 49. 36 ReproCell, Inc. (4978:JP) Poon Panichpibool Business Overview Key Thesis Points Long term growth opportunity Support from the Japan Government 4 Unique Competitive Edges Tactical Asset Allocation Risks Macro Global Risk Social, Political, and Legislative Risk Currency Risk Language Barrier Difficult Money Management Valuation Comparable Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Technical Analysis Summary of Valuation Q&A Question? 36 Contact Information Q&A Contact Information In case you have any comments, suggestions or have found additional information, please do not hesitate to contact me. You can find my contact details below. Poon Panichpibool p.panichpibool@gmail.com 2021 Ivy Road, Apt. B4 Charlottesville, VA 22903
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