Renewable energy country attractiveness indices

May 2009
Issue 21 Renewable energy country
attractiveness indices

In this issue: Global highlights
The US remains top in the All renewables index and stretches its lead to four points.
Overview of indices:
issue 21 ................................2 The European nations have benefited from the European Economic Recovery Plan as
well as announcements from the EC that one-third of Cohesion Policy funds will target a
Country attractiveness ‘green economy.’ These announcements have driven a rise in infrastructure scores across
indices survey........................3 the affected Member States.
Managing renewables The Indian government has announced a new target of 10% renewable energy within its
through the recession ............4 energy mix by 2012. This, along with rises in tariffs for wind and solar, both photo voltaic
and concentrated solar power, have bolstered India’s position near the top of the table.
Issue highlights......................6
The UK budget has boosted the near-term position of the UK due to the positive impact
All renewables index it will have on offshore wind in the near term. However, the rises in banding will only be
at May 2009 .......................10 in place to varying degrees for projects which place new orders for turbines in 2009-10
Long-term wind index and 2010-11. This could lead to many projects pushing for faster development to ensure
at May 2009 .......................11 orders are placed within these windows but may have limited impact on projects which are
further from completion and which may struggle for financial viability at the 1.5 ROCs/
Country focus – US, MWh rate (post 2011-12).
Germany, China, Spain,
Following this, the UK has fallen below Italy in the All renewables index. Italy’s score
India, Italy, UK, Poland .........12
was enhanced following receipt of significant European funding, however recent media
Near-term wind index allegations of corruption may undermine this market’s score in the future.
at May 2009 .......................19 This issue sees a revision to the Solar index, to reflect the increasing role of CSP
Offshore wind, marine generation. Changes to weightings in the index have seen overall rises in solar score for
and tidal focus .....................20 countries such as the US, Spain and India which have strong CSP potential, while some
countries such as Germany and France have seen drops in overall score reflecting their
Feature – solar indices weaker potential for CSP generation.
at May 2009 .......................21
In the near-term index, revised forecasts have seen the US rise as the reduction in forecast
Commentary — capacity for 2009-10 was not as great as expected. However, it is still well below its peak in
guidance notes ....................23 Q4 of 2007.

Glossary ..............................27 We would like to thank all those who took the time to respond to the recent country
attractiveness indices survey. Please see page 3 for initial results.
Company index ....................26

“Ernst & Young was ranked
the leading project finance
advisor in the Americas, Europe,
Middle East and Africa between
2001 and 2008 by Project
Finance International”

Overview of indices: issue 21
The Ernst & Young country attractiveness indices provide scores Renewables infrastructure index
for national renewable energy markets, renewable energy This provides an assessment by country of the general regulatory
infrastructures and their suitability for individual technologies. infrastructure for renewable energy (see page 10).
The indices provide scores out of 100 and are updated on a
regular basis.
Technology factors
The main indices (all renewables and long-term wind) are referred
These provide resource-specific assessments for each country
to as the long-term indices. The near-term wind index takes a
(see page 10).
two-year view with slightly different parameters and weightings
(see right).
Long-term wind index
The country attractiveness indices take a generic view, and
This index is derived from scoring:
different sponsor/financier requirements will clearly affect how
countries are rated. Ernst & Young’s Renewable Energy Group can • The onshore wind index – 74%
provide detailed studies to meet specific corporate objectives. It • The offshore wind index – 26%
is important that readers refer to the guidance notes set out on
pages 23 to 24 when referring to the indices.
Near-term wind index
The near-term wind index takes a forward-looking two-year view
Long-term Indices
based on the parameters of most concern to a typical investor
The long-term indices are forward-looking and take a looking to make an investment in the near term. The index gives
long-term view, hence the UK’s high ranking in the wind index, scores for onshore and offshore separately. For parameters and
explained by the large amount of unexploited wind resource, weightings see page 24.
strong offshore regime and attractive tariffs available
under the Renewables Obligation mechanism. Conversely,
although Denmark has the highest proportion of installed wind
capacity to population level, it scores relatively low because of Comments and suggestions
its restricted grid capacity and reduced tariff incentives. We would welcome your comments or suggestions on
any aspect of the indices. Detailed attractiveness surveys
All renewables index and market reports can be provided taking account of
specific corporate objectives.
This index provides an overall score for all renewable energy
technologies. It combines individual technology indices as follows: Please visit our website www.ey.com/renewables or
contact either:
1. Wind index – 75%
(comprising onshore wind index and offshore wind index) Ben Warren, Partner
bwarren@uk.ey.com
2. Solar index – 10%
(comprising solar PV index and solar CSP index) Andrew Perkins, Director
aperkins@uk.ey.com
3. Biomass and other resource index – 15%
Dane Wilkins, Account Director
Individual technology indices dwilkins1@uk.ey.com

These indices are derived from scoring: Arnaud Bouille, Director
abouille@uk.ey.com
• General country-specific parameters (the renewables
infrastructure index), accounting for 35% Enquiries to the Guest Columnist Jonathan Johns should be
addressed to mtoy@uk.ey.com
• Technology-specific parameters (the technology factors),
accounting for 65%

2 Renewable energy country attractiveness indices Issue 21

Country attractiveness indices survey
During April and May 2009 we asked our readership for your Frequency of publication
thoughts on the current content, the relevance to the market, Frequency of publication
your information requirements and how we can develop the
content to meet your evolving needs for the future.
Initial results from the survey indicate the most popular sections
in the country attractiveness indicies are the country focus pages

Responses
and the all renewables index.

Favoured section

Ad-Hoc: Bi monthly Half yearly Quarterly
as signiﬁcant
changes develop

We are analysing the feedback from our survey and will
incorporate the results in future issues of the country
attractiveness indices.
We would like to thank everyone who kindly completed
All renewables index Market highlights: M&A activity the survey, and would welcome any further feedback you
Country focus pages Others may wish to provide.
Issue articles

Renewable energy country attractiveness indices Issue 21 3

Managing renewables through the recession
Jonathan Johns, Guest Columnist

Notwithstanding renewables’ favorable long-term
investment backdrop, supported by the twin drivers of
climate change and the security of energy supply, the credit
crunch and ensuing recession has had, and is likely to continue “The need for more
to have, a marked effect on the sector: robust cost-effective
• Borrowing terms have tightened considerably with a flight to mechanisms from
quality where funds are available. Cross-border lending has
become more challenging. a tax payer and
• Chronic capacity shortages and bottlenecks have been replaced consumer perspective
by overcapacity and job losses, particularly in the solar PV is likely to emerge as
manufacturing sector and also in wind.
a critical issue.”
• Oil majors have announced either withdrawal or retrenchment
from previous headline investments in the sector as they slash
capital budgets in their core businesses. By late 2008/early 2009, many projects worldwide had been put
on hold until the support packages were announced. US wind
• Bloated P/E ratios have fallen considerably.
turbine projects are only now starting to recommence following
• The days of inexorable profitable growth are over. Some of the 30% treasury grant alternative to the PTC.
those purchasing projects at the height of the boom have UK offshore projects are only just receiving the go-ahead
suffered significant asset write-downs with some overgeared following an overhaul of the ROC regime, increasing income
distressed purchasers selling assets at below cost. for projects squeezed by declining income and rising costs.
• It is welcome that the fiscal stimulus packages put in place Arguably, these welcome measures are only temporary palliatives.
by the majority of OECD countries include a strong renewables The US PTC/ITC structure has been demonstrated as overreliant
component. Governments have recognised green jobs as a on a narrow investment sector and, in the UK, the improved
key area of growth as economies prepare themselves for a ROCs for offshore wind will largely be taken up by existing or
post-recession low-carbon era. soon-to-be announced projects with incentives declining to
previous uneconomic levels in the relatively short term, leaving
Stimulus room for uncertainty. The need for more robust cost-effective
as a mechanisms from a tax payer and consumer perspective is likely
Energy % of 2007
(US$m) Renewables Grid efficiency GDP to emerge as a critical issue as cost savings rather than stimulus
spending becomes a government imperative.
US 32,780 11,920 41,000 0.62%

Germany 631 130 18,330 0.58%
Even with the new packages in place, continued retrenchment
is likely with further withdrawals and consolidation in the offing.
China – 70,000 100,495 5.20% In the solar PV sector in particular, capital calls are likely across
India 1
0.00% all sectors, even by the strongest players as they seek to fund
restructuring or capacity building for the next phase of growth.
Spain – 163 – 0.01%
Capital and debt markets are likely to have only a limited appetite
Italy 1,369 143 2,757 0.20% for such calls and the flight to quality is likely to continue, putting
UK 1,001 72 815 0.07% pressure on new innovative businesses. The stimulus measures
should allow growth to recommence preferably on a more
France 617 5,550 530 0.35%
sustainable basis. Compared to many other sectors, such as
Canada – 790 730 0.11% construction, the renewables sector will look favorable.
Source: Ernst & Young For those with cash there are, and will be, considerable
1. India has supported its green economy through the introduction of new tariffs
showing a differing approach.
investment opportunities. It is worthwhile considering the
environment that renewables face in the coming years as we
A comparison of investment in terms of GDP is salutary as in enter the stimulus phase of the recession and prepare for
some cases the rhetoric is stronger than the investment, with recovery and a new era of growth. The timing of investment
China and the US powering ahead and other countries reeling in will be critical and will depend on a view of when the crossover
their wake (see the table above). point for the particular market is likely to occur. It is important to
emphasise that each market is different as is each sector due to
the multiplicity of mechanisms in place and the different stages of
technology maturity.


Economic growth and its affect on energy consumption is a key
driver of carbon emissions. It is ironic that the recession is likely
to prove the most effective device to date in cutting emissions, “Value for money is likely to
and the impact has been a rapid reduction in the price of carbon, become increasingly critical
demonstrating the volatile nature of that marketplace and
confirming the need for capacity-building renewable incentives
for renewables.”
as well as cap-and-trade polluter-pays mechanisms. The extent
to which carbon becomes fully priced in the economy is likely
to have a fundamental effect on the speed of growth of the
renewables sector and its profitability. This can be achieved
either by way of trading (the preferred route to date) or by way
of taxation, a route likely to be increasingly tempting to depleted
government treasury departments.
tonnes saved. Real declines in output costs per kWh and improved
The West is unlikely to be able to fund, given the high levels of reliability will be demanded of all technologies. This is likely
borrowing, support mechanisms at current levels for indefinite to lead to increased globalization of the technology supply
periods of time. There will be considerable pressure to reduce chain with China having, in all probability, secured a competitive
them once the economy starts growing again, and it will be foothold, if not advantage, as its own deployment has continued
important that by this time the green jobs sector should have largely uninterrupted. For the West, the race for new technologies
gained its own momentum to help justify the long-term economic is likely to become an increasing imperative but only if they
case for renewable investment. provide cost or output advantages in the medium term.
Blue-sky technologies will need to be transformational to
Investment in grid and energy efficiency have been recognised
command government support and equity resource as there
as every bit as important as investment in renewables: indeed,
will be many other short-horizon investment opportunities.
in the next few years, these markets are likely to be at least as
significant as renewables if not more so, and from an investor The credit crunch and the recession give the industry time
perspective have increasing appeal as a new, but in some ways to make some tough decisions and to emerge stronger. It is
less risky, ‘kid on the block’. It also should not be forgotten that fortunate to have significant government support to allow it to
fossil fuels are likely to attract investment dollars as there is no accomplish this but should probably realise that post-2015 the
clear pricing of carbon yet, and opportunities in the short term state may be seeking to wean itself off the mechanisms currently
may improve as prices could again spike when growth recurs. in place in favor of more direct measures focused on making the
polluter pay. This will provide economic advantage to the industry,
Value for money is likely to become increasingly critical for
providing it is by that time prepared for that new era. Those who
renewables as it becomes a mainstream solution, both in terms
seek to rely wholly on existing business models without adapting
of straight economic cost and in terms of price per carbon
them may find their viability challenged.

Ernst & Young conceptual framework for navigating a renewables business through financial crisis
Phase A: Phase B: Phase C: Phase D: Phase E: Phase F:
Pre-financial crisis Financial crisis, Stimulus Post-stimulus Recovery Restored growth
€/MWh pre-stimulating

Carbon Price (€/tonne) €30 €10 €10-15 €20 €25 €30 or €25 €35 or €20
Oil Price ($/barrel) $140 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100

Revenue Drivers
Carbon price
Financial incentives
Scenario:
Brown power price Factors impacting timing of cross-over point:
• Carbon price
• Technology economics
• Nature of support regulations A
• Length of recession
• Length of Financial Crisis
Revenue Value gain • Availability of credit
or high profits B
Value Value gain
impairment or higher margins
or low margins Cross
Cost over
point
Cost drivers “Cross-over
Point”
Capacity levels
Scenario A: Increased carbon price and technology costs falling
Commodity price Scenario B: Consumer resistance to higher prices and taxes
Technology efficiency Length of recession? resulting in greater tariff dependency and reducing
financial incentives. Lower carbon price.
Cost of funds

2005 2006 2007 2008 March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009
Time
Phase C - “Stimulus period” ends 31/12/2010 Phase D – “Post-stimulus period” ends 31/12/2012
• Debt markets static Aggregate revenue
• Debt markets free up
• US Capital Grants Aggregate cost • Pre EU - ETS phase 3
• German accelerated depreciation • European Investment Bank projects
• UK offshore wind at 2 ROCs per MWh (until 31/03/11) • M&A increasing
• Investment opportunity due to low prices


Issue highlights
Equity markets Wind, Solar and Biomass stock indices are based on a selection
of 35 public companies listed in a variety of countries. (A March
Stock and indices since March 2007 2007 baseline is used.)
Stock prices have shown a slower decline since the sharp drop Apart from the solar sector, renewables indices have shown a
seen during Q3 and Q4 2008: degradation in position relative to the March 2007 baseline.
A gradual decline in the Utilities’ stock values has continued
Renewable energy and indices performance while oil prices appear to be stabilizing, showing a slight uplift
from December 2006 to March 2009 on the January position.
4.0 Comparing share prices at the end of March 2009 with those
at the end of October 2008 paints a slightly different picture:
Solar prices have fallen 20%, while wind prices have actually
3.0 risen by 2%. Meanwhile biomass prices have fallen by a further
7%. The disproportionate solar correction is thought to be due
to over-valuations in early 2008 and late 2007. Additionally,
the Spanish tariff cut last September and degression of the
2.0 German tariffs at the beginning of this year have led to excess
capacity in the solar sector. This, combined with a drop in silicon
prices (leading to lower margins for manufacturers) has meant
1.0 that some production capacity has had to close or combine to ride
out the recession.

0.0 P/E ratio performance by RE sector
Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 P/E ratios have continued their steady fall from the unsustainable
FTSE Biomass (Ernst & Young)
heights of late 2007, when average solar ratios were almost
160 and wind was around 110. In the Q3 2007 Country
NEX (WilderHill) Utilities (Ernst & Young)
attractiveness indicies issue we warned that, “Price-earnings
Wind (Ernst & Young) Crude oil data of solar companies shows values of internet company levels,
Solar (Ernst & Young) HSBC climate change index although many of these companies are at an early stage and
hence their valuations may be exaggerated.” Indeed, ratios have
Source: Ernst & Young
subsequently dropped sharply for solar and wind companies, and
now typical values range from about 27 for solar to 18 for wind
Volatility is still apparent due to uncertainty regarding the scale,
and 11 for biomass.
scope and impact of financial recovery packages which have been
steadily announced throughout the latest quarter. During March
2009, renewable stocks generally rallied slightly, together with P/E ratios
the rest of the economy, however talk of ‘green shoots’ may be 200.00
premature in the near-term.

End October End January End March
2008 2009 2009 150.00
NEX -47% -51% -52%
HSBC Climate Change
-40% -38% -44%
Index
100.00
Wind (Ernst & Young) -40% -29% -38%
Solar (Ernst & Young) +69% +60% +49%
Biomass (Ernst & Young) -62% -61% -69% 50.00

Utilities -14% -24% -36%
Brent crude oil +15% -30% -25%
0.00
Source: Ernst & Young Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09

Wind Solar Biomass



Issue highlights (cont’d)

Share price performance by RE sector Since the sharp price correction downwards last September/
In general, large solar companies appear to be performing October, the wind sector has been fairly level over the last few
significantly better than their smaller competitors, and the sector months despite cuts to growth forecasts. Several prominent
is holding up despite a drop in solar module prices across Europe. energy companies have scaled back their commitment to wind
In the US, strong demand is maintaining module and share prices. power, including FPL, Shell and Iberdrola; however, the larger,
better capitalized, and more established OEM wind players are
currently weathering the downturn better than smaller suppliers,
Solar share prices
although job losses have been common to both. Reduced turbine
2.50 prices and increased financial incentives in a number of countries
(especially the US) may lead to growth sooner than expected.

2.00 Wind share prices
1.60
1.50
1.40

1.20
1.00

1.00

0.50
0.80

0.60
0.00
Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

0.40

0.20
Small cap Big cap
0.00
Jun-07

Jun-08
Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09
Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08
The biomass sector has continued its gradual fall in stock
market pricing, that began back in early 2007. Both large and
Small cap Big cap
small companies alike have been impacted by the difficult market
conditions that have persisted. Source: Ernst & Young

Biomass share prices Recent flotations
1.20 The performance of several companies which were floated late
2007/early 2008 looks to have turned a corner. After some large
1.00 drops from initial valuations, firms such as Iberdrola Renovables,
Xinjiang Goldwind, and EDP Renováveis have recovered since
minima around late October 2008. This may offer signs of hope
0.80
for those companies which delayed their IPOs during the
financial crisis.
0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
Jun-07

Jun-08
Sep-07

Sep-08
Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09
Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Small cap Big cap




Recent flotations Bord Gais Eireann has acquired Sorne Wind Limited from
HgCapital Renewable Power Partners Fund. Sorne Wind has
Relative price
generating capacity of 32MW.
4.00
RWE Renewables Polska has acquired a 30% stake in Park
3.50 Wiatrowy Suwalki Sp zoo, a Warsaw-based owner and operator of
wind farms, from Polish Energy Partners SA, for 6.5 million Polish
3.00 zlotych (US$1.753 million). Concurrently, RWE also acquired a
30% stake in Park Wiatrowy Tychowo Sp zoo.
2.50
Mainstream Renewable Power has signed an 80:20 JV
2.00 with Canadian wind farm developer Alberta Wind Energy
Corporation (AWEC), to build an initial portfolio of over 400MW
1.50
of wind energy plants with a combined potential investment
1.00 value of US$850 million.

0.50
EDP Renováveis Brasil has acquired Windfarm Elebras Cidreira,
a Cidreira-based owner and operator of wind farms, from
0.00 Innovent GmbH, for 6.2 million reais (US$2.7 million). As a result
Jun-08

Sep-08
Mar-08

Mar-09
Dec-07

Dec-08

of the transaction, EDP has secured 532MW of wind power.
DONG Energy has acquired the 51MW Karcino wind farm in
Iberdrola Renovables EDP Renováveis Poland from Aktiv Wind, a company owned by bankrupt
Xinjiang Goldwind developer EuroTrust. The wind farm is expected to commence
operations in 2010, and the overall construction budget totals
Source: Ernst & Young around DKK600 million (US$100 million) including DONG
Energy’s cash purchase price for the shares, provisionally
calculated to be DKK38 million (US$7 million).
M&A

Utilities Solar
Italian utility Enel is looking at a possible capital increase of First Solar, Inc has agreed to acquire a solar project
€5 billion – €8 billion to curb its financial debt, including possibly development business from OptiSolar Inc., the US-based
putting its renewable energy assets up for sale. This is planned manufacturer of solar panels, for an approximate equity
for June pending authorization and market conditions. consideration of US$400 million. The acquisition includes a
550MW solar development project, which is already under a
German utility EnBW and Turkish industrial company power purchase agreement with Pacific Gas and Electric company
Borusan Holding intend to form a JV in order to build 2GW of (PG&E) (see page 12); a project pipeline of additional 1,300MW;
power capacity in Turkey during the next 12 years, much of it and certain related land rights of approximately 136,000 acres.
renewable energy.
Nippon Oil Corporation has acquired a 31.2% stake in Space
Energy Corporation, the Japan-based producer of solar cell silicon
Wind
wafers, for a consideration of JPY3 billion (US$29.7 million)
CLP Holdings Limited has acquired the Chinese wind farm increasing its interest in the company to 46%.
portfolio of Roaring 40s Renewable Energy Pty Ltd., the
Australia-based renewable energy producer, for a consideration of National Semiconductor Corporation, the listed US-based
US$94.17 million. The acquisition is in line with CLP’s strategy to developer of analog and mixed signal semiconductors has
expand its operations and increase its renewable energy capacity acquired Act Solar, the US-based provider of solar power
by 122MW to over 1200MW. Post acquisition, in Australia, optimization solutions and products, for an undisclosed
Roaring 40s will continue to operate as a 50:50 JV between CLP consideration. The transaction is in line with National
and Hydro Tasmania and develop wind projects. Hydro Tasmania Semiconductor’s strategy of expanding its portfolio of power
is also planning to sell its share in Khandke Wind Farm, based in optimization technologies, by using Act Solar’s technology for
India, for an estimated US$11 million. monitoring solar arrays with its SolarMagic product line.

CLP has also won an auction to acquire a 32% stake in China HgCapital Renewable Power Partners Fund has acquired a
Guangdong Nuclear Wind Power Co Ltd. from China Guangdong controlling stake in three Spanish solar PV plants, from AIG
Nuclear Power Group (CGNPG) for a consideration of CNY 1.04 Financial Products Corp. The consideration represents an
billion (US$152.36 million). enterprise value of €300 million, with a total output of 35.4MW.



Mitsubishi Corporation has signed an agreement with Acciona Hydro
S.A. to acquire a 34% equity interest in its subsidiary Amper Statkraft has agreed to acquire a 95% stake in Yesil Enerji AS,
Central Solar S.A, the developer and operator of the 45.8MW the Turkey-based energy company, from Global Yatirim Holding
solar PV project in Amareleja, Portugal. AS. Yesil Enerji holds controlling interests in seven hydropower
Nord/LB and Bremer have joined forces with three other investors projects, with a combined installed capacity of 633MW and an
to finance a €160 million solar facility in Brandenburg. The 53MW annual generation capacity of 2.1TWh.
facility will be constructed by juwi Holding AG and First Solar.
Restructuring
White Owl Capital AG has bought a 1.7MW solar park in Spain
located near the village of Castuera, from IBC Solar AG, a Bad Vestas have recently announced the closing of the Isle of Wight
Staffelstein-based owner and operator of solar plants. turbine plant with the loss of 450 jobs as part of a headcount
reduction program which sees 1,900 jobs being cut.
Fotowatio Renewable Ventures, Inc. has agreed to acquire the
renewable energy business of MMA Renewable Ventures LLC The slowdown of the PV industry has seen job cuts in solar cell
from its parent company Municipal Mortgage & Equity LLC for a manufacturing across the globe as demand and hence price for
consideration consisting of US$19.7 million. cells drops. China, Spain and the US have borne the brunt of
these impacts.
Siemens has acquired a 28% stake in Italian solar company
Archimede Solar Energy (ASE) for an undisclosed price. The Spanish PV industry has recently taken significant job losses
Siemens intends to provide capital for quickly expanding with the Asociación de la Industria Fotovoltaica (ASIF) reporting
production capacities, with an option to acquire a majority in between 10,000 and 15,000 redundancies.
ASE in the mid-term. BP has announced the closure of solar panel production sites in
Maryland and Madrid.
Biomass and biogas
Deutsche KWK GmbH agreed to acquire a 38% stake in Pro2
Anlagentechnik GmbH for €3.6 million (US$4.6 million).
RWE Innogy and the Westphalia-Lippe Agricultural Association
have signed a cooperation agreement to construct and operate
biogas plants which are run almost entirely on liquid manure.
Present planning documents state the commencement of
construction for the first pilot plant in Münsterland (district of
Borken) is scheduled for September 2009, with commissioning
envisaged in spring 2010. The plant is designed for 9MWth and
could feed an annual 60GWh of biogas and 8GWh of electricity
into the public gas grid.

Geothermal
For an undisclosed consideration, Max Weishaupt GmbH, the
German heating and cooling equipment manufacturer, has
acquired a majority stake in BauGrund Süd Gesellschaft für
Geothermie mbH, the German company specializing in drilling
and exploration of near-surface geothermal energy.

Marine
Singapore-based Atlantis Resources, a developer of
tidal turbines, has said that it raised US$14 million
in funding. Norway’s Statkraft led the round, joining existing
backers including Morgan Stanley, the largest shareholder of
the company.


All renewables index at May 2009
All Onshore Offshore Biomass/ Infra-
Rank1 Country renewables Wind index wind wind Solar other Geothermal structure2
1 (1) US3 70 71 75 58 73 63 67 68
2 (1) Germany 66 67 66 71 65 64 60 64
3 (3) China 63 67 71 55 46 54 58 64
4 (4) India 62 63 70 42 61 56 43 60
5 (5) Spain 61 62 67 46 67 54 36 65
6 (7) Italy 59 59 64 46 64 55 65 64
7 (6) UK 58 63 61 67 38 56 35 61
8 (9) France 57 59 60 54 53 57 28 58
9 (8) Canada 54 59 63 45 32 46 30 58
9 (10) Portugal 54 56 61 43 51 45 33 58
11 (10) Ireland 52 57 58 57 28 47 27 60
12 (13) Australia 51 51 54 43 57 46 60 55
12 (10) Greece 51 53 57 42 56 42 33 55
14 (14) Sweden 50 52 52 51 35 55 34 52
15 (15) Netherlands 46 49 50 49 37 40 21 42
15 (16) Poland 46 49 53 39 34 41 22 46
17 (16) Denmark 45 48 45 54 32 45 32 50
17 (16) Belgium 45 50 48 55 28 35 26 47
17 (19) Norway 45 48 49 45 24 44 30 49
20 (20) Brazil 44 44 48 34 40 46 20 41
21 (21) New Zealand 42 46 50 36 25 33 43 41
21 (21) Japan 42 44 46 38 43 33 38 45
21 (23) Turkey 42 43 46 36 40 36 42 44
24 (24) Austria 34 31 41 0 43 47 35 48
25 (25) Finland 33 33 32 35 20 47 22 33
1. Ranking in issue 20 (February 2009) is shown in brackets
2. Combines with each set of technology factors to produce the individual technology indices
3. This indicates US states with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and favorable renewable energy regimes

The US leads the All renewables index at May 2009, These two European announcements have influenced the
where The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) infrastructure score of the affected EU Member States in the
has started to influence sectors of the market. In an example all renewables index, for further details see page 11.
of this Western Area Power Administration has reported 100
Also in this issue, the solar index has been enhanced through
proposed transmission projects in response to its request for
the creation of dedicated solar PV and CSP indices. This has
interest in RE grid projects, which is supported by US$3.25
impacted all countries in the All renewables index (see page 21
billion borrowing authority as part of the ARRA.
for further details).
This issue has also seen the proposal of the European
China retains sole occupancy of third place in the all renewables
Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) (see page 11) set before
index, following consistent governmental support despite the
the European Council. The planned spend includes backing
economic downturn and retaining long-term growth expectations.
for specific grid, carbon capture and offshore wind projects.
In India, the federal government has announced a revised target
Also announced in the period was the European Commission’s
of 10% renewable energy by 2012 from the current installed
intention to allocate a significant amount of the Cohesion
base of under 8%. This has enhanced India’s overall score by one
Policy monies to support the building of a green economy in
index point.
Member States.


Long-term wind index at May 2009
Rank1 Country Wind index Onshore wind Offshore wind
1 (1) US2 71 75 58
2 (1) China 67 71 55
2 (3) Germany 67 66 71
4 (4) UK 63 61 67
4 (5) India 63 70 42
6 (5) Spain 62 67 46
7 (7) Canada 59 63 45
7 (8) Italy 59 64 46
7 (11) France 59 60 54
10 (8) Ireland 57 58 57
11 (11) Portugal 56 61 43
12 (8) Greece 53 57 42
13 (13) Sweden 52 52 51
14 (13) Australia 51 54 43
15 (15) Belgium 50 48 55
16 (17) Netherlands 49 50 49
16 (15) Poland 49 53 39
18 (18) Denmark 48 45 54
18 (19) Norway 48 49 45
20 (20) New Zealand 46 50 36
21 (21) Japan 44 46 38
21 (21) Brazil 44 48 34
23 (23) Turkey 43 46 36
24 (24) Finland 33 32 35
25 (25) Austria 31 41 NA

1. Ranking in issue 20 (February 2009) Long-term wind index is shown in brackets
2. This indicates US states with RPS and favorable renewable energy regimes

Canada has fallen one point in the all renewables index due to The combined impact of the proposed EERP, and the recent
the failure of the Canadian federal budget to deliver support to announcement regarding allocation of Cohesion Policy funds
existing renewable technologies by not extending the existing to the green economy, have led to a raft of single point rises in
ecoENERGY program. As a result, reserves for the tariff will likely European countries in the Long-term wind index.
all be allocated within the current year.
Also in the Long-term wind index, China has risen one
The proposed EERP promises subsidies to specific grid link point due to continued support for green energy from the
projects with a combined value of €910 million as well as primarily government-owned utilities providing stability to
subsidies for specific offshore wind projects totaling €565 million the electricity market.
of support.
India’s score has strengthened one point on the back of increased
On 9 March 2009, the European Commissioner for Regional wind tariffs in Gujarat and a confirmation by the government on a
Policy announced that €105 billion of the budget set aside for the new renewable energy target of 10% of capacity by 2012.
Cohesion Policy between 2007 and 2013 would be invested in the
The Swedish government has indicated that simplification of the
green economy. Of this, €4.8 billion has been allocated for the
authorization procedures for wind farms is being considered.
renewable energy sector within Member States.
The motioned abolition of existing ‘double regulation’ has helped
boost the Swedish score by one point.


Country focus – US
Tax credit or grant Lauren Engineers & Constructors recently signed a contract
with Florida Power & Light as the engineering, procurement
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 and construction contractor for a new 75MW CSP plant located
All renewables index 1 1 near Indiantown, Florida. The project will use parabolic trough
Long-term wind index 1 1
technology and connect to an existing combined-cycle gas
power plant.
Near-term wind index 1 1
Florida Power & Light has also announced they will build a 75MW
solar PV plant at Babcock Ranch, Florida. Subject to Florida State
The onshore wind sector in the US continues to perform well, approvals, construction of the Florida Power & Light solar facility
reflected by an announcement by the American Wind Energy is expected for Q4 2009.
Association stating that capacity totaling 2,836MW was installed Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) plans a five-year
in Q1 2009. Nine states now have over 1GW of onshore wind program to develop up to 500MW of solar PV power in its
capacity installed. northern and central California service area. The proposed
This impressive rate of construction, however, is not program consists of up to 250MW of utility-owned PV generation
expected to continue. Those projects coming online now were and an additional 250MW to be built and owned by independent
driven by a rush seen in the industry to close deals before the developers under a ‘streamlined regulatory process.’ PG&E hopes
production tax credit system was due to expire at the end of for approval from the California Public Utilities Commission later
2008. This, combined with the recent economic turmoil, will slow this year. Expected to be up and running by 2015, the solar PV
the rate of projects coming online during 2009 and into 2010. projects are expected to deliver more than 1,000GWh of solar
power annually. In all, the program could meet over 1.3% of
The offshore wind and marine sectors took a step forward when PG&E’s electricity demand.
the Department of the Interior issued a framework for the leasing
of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for offshore wind, tidal and All these stories and more are explored in detail in the US states
wave projects. The process, as discussed when announced in Attractiveness Indices.
the Q4 2007 issue of the Country Attractiveness Indices, will
be overseen by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) and Contact:
includes regulation on rules for leasing, easements, rights of way, Michael Bernier
and methods of revenue sharing with coastal states. The revenue Tel: +1 617 585 0322
sharing rules provide that 27.5% of the royalties will go to the Email: michael.bernier@ey.com
coastal state.
Fred Copeman
NRG Energy, Inc. has signed an agreement with eSolar to develop Tel: +1 617 375 2484
500MW of solar CSP plants in California and the southwest US. Email: frederick.copeman@ey.com
NRG will invest approximately US$10 million for equity and
associated development rights for three projects.

US state all renewables index top 5
All renewables Long-term wind Long-term solar Biomass Geothermal Infrastructure
Ranking1 State index index index2 index index index3
1 (1) Texas 72 80 67 61 63 76
2 (2) California 66 66 80 79 75 81
2 (2) New York 66 72 60 64 60 59
4 (4) New Mexico 62 67 68 53 65 76
4 (6) Massachusetts 62 65 63 68 67 75

Source: Ernst & Young US Attractiveness Indices
1. Ranking in Q4 2008 long-term wind index in brackets
2. Solar index represents the index score for both large- and small-scale solar


Country focus – Germany
Feed-in tariff through non-recourse debt from a consortium of banks.
First Solar and juwi intend to sell the majority of the project
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 after its completion. Construction of the project began in January
All renewables index 2 2 2009, and the first 15MW have been completed. The remaining
Long-term wind index 21
21
38MW are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2009.

Near-term wind index 5 41 Ersol, part of the Bosch Group, has begun the expansion of its
solar production, setting up a new manufacturing facility for
1. Joint
crystalline solar cells and modules in Arnstadt. €530 million will
be invested in the new production unit between now and 2012.
Project news dominates activity in Germany this issue;
The biomass sector saw Epuron, a subsidiary of Conergy, sell two
for instance, DIF Renewable Energy (DIF), part of private
of its biogas projects with a total output of 1.25MW to renewables
equity player Dutch Infrastructure Fund, has acquired 26.7MW
investor CEE Bioenergie Holding. The financial holding company
of German wind assets from e.n.o. energy. DIF has also
is developing its own portfolio of biogas projects by acquiring
completed the acquisition of a 16MW German wind project
existing biogas plants and installing new medium-sized plants
from Renerco Renewable Energy Concepts. The agreement with
(500kW to 2MW). The two companies are planning to develop
e.n.o. energy comprises the purchase and financing of five wind
their partnership in the future.
farms in the states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt,
while the agreement with Renerco Renewable Energy Concepts
Contact:
is the acquisition of one wind farm in northeast Germany.
Andreas Luecke
Also in the wind sector, Germany’s Allianz Specialised has Tel: +49 40 36132 12560
acquired a 24MW wind farm in Brandenburg, from Denker & Wulf, Email: andreas.luecke@de.ey.com
as part of Allianz’s alternative asset investment activities.
Robert Seiter
In the solar sector, First Solar and juwi Holding AG have secured Tel: +49 30 25471 21415
financing for a 53MW PV power plant near the German city of Email: robert.seiter@de.ey.com
Cottbus. More than 80% of the required project capital is financed


Country focus – China
Tender In onshore wind, Dutch renewables company Econcern has
signed agreements to invest a total of €863 million in onshore
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 wind farms in China. The agreements represent over 720MW
All renewables index 3 3 of capacity. Econcern has signed term sheets for three onshore
21
wind farm projects with CNOOC New Energy, a full subsidiary of
China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and for one onshore
wind farm project with Sinohydro Renewable Energy, a full
Source: Ernst & Young subsidiary of Sinohydro Corporation. The two deals combined will
1. Joint make Econcern a major player in the Chinese sustainable energy
market. Construction of the projects is expected to start in 2009.
On 1 May 2009 the Chinese National Energy Administration
reported an increase in its 2020 wind power target from 30GW Developments in the offshore wind sector saw renewable energy
to 100GW. This tripling of the wind power capacity goal consultancy SgurrEnergy appointed by the EU-China Energy and
formalises the rate of growth the industry already displays and Environment Programme to advise on the potential for China to
ties in with existing capacity forecasts. Hence the raised target exploit its offshore wind resource. Glasgow-based SgurrEnergy,
has already been factored into our country attractiveness indicies which set up a base in Beijing in 2006, will work in partnership
scores. 12GW were installed by the end of 2008 (Source: Global with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to assess
Wind Energy Council) and we are predicting 46GW over the next whether it is economically viable to construct offshore wind farms
five years. That would total 58GW by the end of 2013, which along a 10,000km stretch of coastline from Fujian to Shandong.
is already well in excess of the original goal of 30GW by 2020.
Extrapolating at 10GW per year, capacity would exceed 100GW Contact:
by 2020. In addition to extensive wind resource in its north and
Alex Ng
northwest regions, China is also now developing wind farms off
Tel: +86 10 5815 2865
its eastern and southern coasts, driving up installed capacity.
Email: alex.ng@cn.ey.com
The Chinese renewables market, especially within the wind sector,
appears to be weathering the credit crunch relatively well due to
the influence of the state on the major energy utilities.

Country focus – Spain
Feed-in tariff The solar CSP sector is driving the project news this issue,
with Acciona starting construction work on a 50MW CSP plant in
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 Majadas de Tiétar, southwest Spain. The plant will enter service in
All renewables index 41
5 the second half of 2010 and, by the end of 2010, Acciona plans
to have five CSP plants in operation, four in Spain and one in the
US, accounting for an overall investment of around €1.25 billion.
This particular project requires an investment of €237 million.
1. Joint
Also in the CSP market, Grupo Ibereolica and Inveravante have
signed an agreement to start the joint construction of two 50MW
The Spanish central government has authorised 88.7MW of new CSP plants in Andalucia and Extremadura. With a €600 million
solar PV projects in its first call to tender since the legislation investment, these are the first two solar projects of a total of eight
was passed in September 2008. The legislation (Royal Decree which the company plans to build and operate in Spain.
1578/2008 discussed in Q3 2008) was designed to slow down
In offshore wind, Spain is expected to open a tendering process
the rapid growth of the solar PV sector in Spain to a financially
for 3GW of offshore wind sites. This is the start of a process which
manageable level. The new rules set an annual quota of 500MW
could see wind farms coming online by 2013.
of installed PV capacity, split between the four quarters.
Reduction in solar PV tariffs and a market cap has prompted a rise Contact:
in interest in CSP. The target for 2010 is for 500MW of installed Pablo Tramoyeres Galvan
solar thermal capacity. Spain currently has approximately 225MW Tel: +34 91 5727 380
of installed CSP capacity and market expectation is that a further Email: pablotramoyeresgalvan@es.ey.com
500MW will be added in the next year, allowing Spain to push past
Juan María Román Gonçalves
its 2010 target. Lobbying to extend the target and the tariff cap is
Tel: +34 94 4243 777
currently underway.
Email: juanmaria.romangoncalves@es.ey.com


Country focus – India
Feed-in tariff Gujarat has also signed firm proposals for setting up solar
power projects with companies like Euro Ceramics (100MW),
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 Reliance, Surya Chakra, Tata Power (200MW), Essar (50MW)
All renewables index 4
1
4 and Indiabulls (150MW).
1
4 Kolhapur-based Ghodawat plans to invest US$402.3 million in
Near-term wind index 3 3 the next three to four years in its wind energy business for
setting up wind farms and wind turbine manufacturing facilities.
1. Joint
It currently has 55MW wind farms in Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Karnataka and Rajasthan.
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) is soon to
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL) has signed a JV with
announce a tariff regulation for renewable power. Currently 15
Kerala Electrical & Allied Engineering Co Ltd. (KEL) for setting
out of 28 states have set quotas for renewable energy purchase.
up a manufacturing facility for wind power generators. The
Those states which do not have sources of renewable energy
proposed JV expects to generate a turnover of US$12.3 million
would have to buy renewable energy certificates from the states
by next year.
which have surplus power. CERC proposes to bring out a detailed
discussion paper to finalize the setting-up of a renewable power Himachal Pradesh has granted approval to 3 small hydro
exchange where such certificates would be traded. projects at Siyul (13MW), Kilhi Bahal (7.5MW) and Shalvi (7MW)
amongst a total of 13 hydro projects with capacity of 1,583.5MW.
Many of the state governments have recently announced an
It also approved 27 projects with a capacity of 81.90MW of self-
increase in their wind power tariffs. Gujarat has announced an
identified hydro projects under the state sector.
increase from US$68/MWh to US$70/MWh, Madhya Pradesh
from US$80/MWh to US$81/MWh and Tamil Nadu from US$58/ A 2MW biomass co-generation plant, at a project cost of US$3.1
MWh to US$68/MWh. million, using plywood waste was commissioned at Bharat Starch
Industries at Yamunanagar in Haryana. Haryana Renewable
Gujarat has announced its Solar Power Policy 2009,
Energy Development Agency (HAREDA) is implementing around
which provides for a maximum solar power generator (SPG)
20 such projects totaling 190MW.
capacity in the state of 500MW; minimum capacity of each
SPG should be 5MW. Rajasthan is expected to add 100MW biomass-based capacity
as per the MoUs signed with various private players such as
New solar tariffs in Gujarat Sambhav Energy, SM Environmental Technologies, Sathyam
Power Ltd., etc.
Solar PV (US$/MWh) Solar CSP (US$/MWh) ETA Ascon Star Group, via subsidiary ETA Powergen Pvt. Ltd.,
First Years First Years is developing a 10MW biomass project in Virudhunagar district,
12 years 13-25 12 years 13-25 Tamil Nadu. The proposed INR 463 million (US$9 million) plant
Projects will use wood-based biomass feedstock including juliflora, cotton
commissioned 254 59 195 59
before 31/12/2010
stalk and maize stalk. The firm has submitted its EIA report to
Projects
Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board and said that it plans to set up
commissioned 234 59 176 59 similar biomass projects in other Indian states.
before 31/03/2014
Contact:
Himachal Pradesh has also announced tariffs of 204 US$/MWh Sudipta Das
and 177 US$/MWh for solar PV and solar thermal respectively for Tel: +91 33 6615 3400
projects commissioned before December 2009 within the bracket Email: sudipta.das@in.ey.com
of 1-5MW.


Country focus – Italy
Green certificate and feed-in tariff installations across the Mediterranean region. The Montalto
di Castro plant is being managed through a company called
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 Cassiopea PV srl, a subsidiary of SunRay Renewable Energy.
All renewables index 7 6
Trina Solar Limited has announced the completion of a 4.7MW
41 PV facility developed by ErgyCapital, an investment company
Near-term wind index 6 71 specializing in the fields of renewable energies and energy-saving
products. The project, located in the town of Serravalle Scrivia in
1. Joint
the Piedmont region of Italy, is currently Italy’s largest PV facility
and single roof-mounted solar system, involving approximately
AXA Private Equity, the European diversified private equity house, 38,000 square meters of solar panels.
and the industrial company, Tozzi Group, have established a joint
venture to invest in the Italian renewable energy sector. The JV, Contact:
TRE & Partners S.p.a., acts as a holding company and comprises
Robert Giacomelli
investments in wind farms, hydroelectric and solar projects in
Tel: +39 02 80 66 92 68
Italy. Assets will come from the Tozzi Group’s portfolio. Tozzi
Email: robert.giacomelli@it.ey.com
Group will have a 55% holding in the JV with the remainder being
held by AXA Private Equity. Angelo Era
Tel: +39 06 6753 54 69
Construction work has started on the largest PV plant in
Email: angelo.era@it.ey.com
Italy (24MW). The project is being constructed by SunRay
Renewable Energy, which is developing solar power


Country focus – UK
Green certificate and feed-in tariff Airtricity and Aquamarine Power have formed a JV with the aim
of developing 1GW of marine power around the UK and Ireland.
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 Several potential sites have been identified and any projects will
All renewables index 7 6 be based on Aquamarine Power’s wave and tidal energy solutions.
41 In April, Greater Manchester Waste Disposal Authority’s
Near-term wind index 6 71 PFI procurement reached financial close, supported by
Ernst & Young. This is the largest waste PFI project in Europe,
1. Joint
requiring capital expenditure of GB£640 million and a gross
contract value over the 25-year term of GB£4.4 billion. Solid
This issue has seen the release of the UK Budget 2009. recovered fuel will be treated in a 375,000-tonne CHP-enabled
The budget set a global precedent by introducing the first waste-to-energy plant which will provide both heat and power
carbon budgets. These commit the UK to the first three years direct to Ineos Chlor Vinyls’ Runcorn plant. Other facilities include
towards a target reduction in carbon emissions by 34% of 1990 five anaerobic digestion plants that will be capable of treating
levels by 2020. over 250,000 tonnes of green and food waste.

The budget also announced proposed changes in the offshore Viridor Waste Management Limited, John Laing plc and Ineos
wind Renewables Obligation banding, increasing the ROCs earned Chlor are shareholders in the project. The construction sub-
from offshore wind generation from 1.5 to 2 for the financial contractors include Keppel Seghers for the waste-to-energy plant
year 2010-11 and 1.75 for the year 2011-12. This is expected to and Clarke Haase and Enpure who will deliver the AD plants.
provide GB£525 million support from 2011 to 2014.
A new GB£500,000 (US$744,000) fund has been launched to
Following the closure of Round 3 of the Crown Estate UK offshore help environmental entrepreneurs and small businesses develop
wind auctions, the Crown Estate has confirmed it received their ideas to generate electricity from the river Severn’s tidal
multiple bids for each of the nine zones. 40 different bids were power. The scheme is being managed by the Department of
received from 18 different companies and consortia for the sites. Energy and Climate Change, the Welsh Assembly Government,
The Crown Estate has issued a positive opinion regarding the Defra, and the South West of England Regional Development
healthy interest in the sites and the quality of the bids submitted. Agency. The Severn Embryonic Technologies Scheme is designed
to further develop proposals like tidal reefs and fences and other
Changes to the system of allocating grid to offshore
potential ideas.
projects continues. It is likely that the revised process of
allocating licenses for the grid connections will remove the
pressure on developers’ capital by facilitating construction of Contact:
the connections by offshore transmission license holders. Ben Warren
Tel: +44 2 0795 16024
In the near term, a program of reshuffling the onshore grid
Email: bwarren@uk.ey.com
connection queue is to provide revised connection offers to
projects which are developing in favor of projects which have
slower progress. The second tranche of revised offers is expected
soon by developers in Scotland and is expected to be about
457MW of revised offers.
Further grid developments have seen J&S Marine being
awarded a contract from the European Marine Energy Centre
to provide and install connectivity solutions for wave and tidal
projects off Orkney. The connections will allow wave and tidal
projects to connect to the wave and tidal hubs and then on to
the national grid.


Country focus – Poland
Green certificate According to the assumptions used as a basis for Poland’s Energy
Policy until 2030, published by the Ministry of Economy in March
Ranking Issue 21 Issue 20 2009, development of renewable energy generation is a strategic
All renewables index 15 1
161 priority for the Polish energy sector. The document assumes that
in 2030 at least 20% of the total energy production in Poland will
be generated by renewable energy sources.
RWE Renewables Polska (RWE) has entered into two conditional
1. Joint
sale and purchase agreements (SPA) with PEP S.A. for a 30%
stake in wind farm sites in Tychowo and Suwałki. Under the terms
March 2009 saw a focus in Poland on application of the SPA, RWE has paid PLN4 million (US$1.1 million) for the
submissions by renewable energy projects for EU funds. option to purchase the project and will pay a further PLN8.1
The funds under Priority IX.9.4. amounting to €700 million million (US$2.3 million) upon operational commencement of the
(EU Structural Funds) are being distributed by Instytut Paliw i wind farm sites. The two wind farms are to reach 83MW capacity
Energii Odnawialnej. The deadline for application was in total.
14 April 2009.
Also in the wind sector, DONG Energy has acquired the Karcino
There were 120 applications for funds (see table below) wind farm project. It is the second wind farm project in Poland.
amounting to PLN3.15 billion (c.US$890 million) and we For the acquisition of Karcino (fully permitted project), DONG has
await news of successful applicants. paid €5.1 million (US$6.65 million). The project is expected to
have an installed capacity of 51MW once constructed.
Applications for EU funds by technology
Type of project No. of submitted Contact:
application for EU funds applications Kamil Baj
Wind energy 86 Tel: +48 22 557 8855
Biogas 19 Email: kamil.baj@pl.ey.com
Hydro 6
Biomass 5 Jacek Rodzeń
Geothermal 2 Tel: +48 22 557 6234
Solar 2 Email: jacek.rodzen@pl.ey.com

Source: IPiEO

Project activity in Poland during this issue has been centered
around wind farm development. Poland experienced a high
increase in wind generation capacity from 451MW at the end
of 2008 to 547MW as at 28 February 2009.
Issues relating to obtaining grid access are taking on more
importance and an amendment to the Energy Act concerning
the issue is being discussed. The new draft law which plans to
regulate the process of issuing grid connection, however, has met
significant criticism.


Near-term wind index at May 2009
Rank1 Country Wind index
1 (1) US2 81
2 (2) China 78 “With the exception of
3 (3) India 55
China, MW forecasts
4 (4) Spain 51
5 (4) Germany 50
show a general reduction
6 (7) UK 48 in installations in 2009,
7 (7) France 47 with a gradual return to
7 (9) Italy 47 long-term installation
9 (6) Canada 46
growth rates over a
10 (10) Portugal 41
11 (12) Australia 40
longer time horizon”
11 (11) Ireland 40
11 (12) Greece 40
14 (14) Poland 37
15 (15) Belgium 36
15 (15) Brazil 36
While the US has a clear lead in the Near-term index, it has yet to
17 (17) Sweden 35
return to the high of 88 points seen in Q4 2007.
18 (19) Netherlands 34
Despite expectations of greater MW installations during the near
19 (21) Turkey 33
term than the US, China ranks second in the Near-term index
19 (18) Norway 33
and has maintained ITS score this issue. This is due to market
19 (21) Denmark 33 accessibility concerns which, although they have been reducing,
22 (19) New Zealand 32 are still present.
23 (23) Japan 27
Spain moves ahead of Germany in the Near-term index as
24 (24) Austria 24 although the majority of projects within Germany’s offshore
25 (24) Finland 23 program are currently progressing as planned, slightly increased
risks in the offshore sector driven by the continued economic
1 .Ranking in issue 20 (February 2009) Near-term wind index is shown in brackets downturn have reduced Germany’s score. However, Spain’s
2. This indicates US states with RPS and favorable renewable energy regimes. onshore installations are expected to remain at 2006 and 2008
levels during the recession.
The Near-term wind index takes the perspective of an investor
looking to make a commitment within the next two years. The The UK has risen a point to reflect the increased short-term
methodology and weightings used to produce the Near-term wind impact of the recent announcement of higher ROC bandings for
index are different to those of the Long-term index so the two offshore wind until 2010-11, announced in the recent budget. For
are not directly comparable. The Near-term wind index places details of the new ROC allowance for offshore wind see page 17.
a greater emphasis on market growth and takes into account a This point increase has moved the UK above France and Italy.
narrower range of parameters than the Long-term wind index. Italy fell one point and a position, following expectations that
In the US, the impact of the ARRA has started to be felt, as a investments from the EU will not support an expected decline in
number of projects have started to move forward, for example annual MW installation rates over the near term.
First Wind’s 204MW Milford Wind Corridor (phase I) project in Canada has halted its fall seen in issue 20, as forecasts have been
Milford, Utah. Our forecasts for 2009 have reduced from Issue realigned with long-term installation expectations.
20, as we expect installations driven from the ARRA stimulation
to be realized in 2010, rather than 2009.
The overall reforecast has driven a gain of two points in the
US, while availability of debt finance remains an issue for some
projects and holds back the US’ score.


Offshore wind, marine and tidal focus
Offshore wind index – top 10 Norway has drafted a new law allowing the government to control
offshore developments within its waters. This would cover both
Offshore wind offshore wind and wave developments. The law is to be put before
Rank1 Country index
the Norwegian parliament before the summer and is likely to be
1 (1) Germany 71
similar to the current legislation covering waterways and oil and
2 (2) UK 67 gas reserves.
3 (3) US2 58
RWE Innogy has acquired rights to the North Sea Windpower
4 (4) Ireland 57
project 3 via its acquisition of Energieanlagen. The development
5 (4) China 55 will be Germany’s largest offshore wind farm at 960MW.
5 (6) Belgium 55
Statkraft has agreed to purchase a 50% stake from StatoilHydro
7 (7) Denmark 54
in the 315MW Sheringham Shoal offshore wind farm off the
7 (8) France 54 Norfolk coast.
9 (9) Sweden 51
10 (10) Netherlands 49 Irish Sea
Source: Ernst & Young ABB has been awarded a contract to install a 500MW
1. Ranking in issue 20 (February 2009) is shown in brackets bi-directional transmission line between Ireland and Wales
by EirGrid. The connection is hoped to help the market for
As discussed on page 17, the UK government has announced a renewables by providing a larger market to utilize power at
tariff enhancement for offshore wind projects over the next two times of peak generation.
years. Due to the timeframe of the support, the UK’s off-shore
score has not risen in the long-term offshore wind index. Black Sea
In the US, however, the Department of Interior issued a A pilot 5kW demonstration wave energy project was opened in
framework for the leasing of the OCS for offshore wind, tidal and Turkey during this issue period. Importantly, during the opening
wave projects (see page 12 ). ceremony the Turkish Energy Minister suggested the government
may offer support for wave energy projects. Depending on the
level of support, Turkey may well feature in the wave and tidal
Wave and tidal index – top 10
index top 10 in the future.
Offshore wind
Rank Country index
Pacific Ocean
1 Portugal 68
Atlantis Resources has signed an agreement to install a 1MW tidal
2 Ireland 64
energy plant in Western Australia.
2 UK 64
Also in Australian waters, wave energy developer Carnegie
4 US 1
60
Corporation has signed heads of agreement with Investec Bank
5 Australia 53
outlining their mutual intention to work together. Investec intends
6 France 52 to provide up to AU$250 million (US$166 million) provided
7 Canada 47 project milestones and conditions are met.
8 New Zealand 44
9 Norway 43 Contact:
9 Spain 43 Andrew Perkins
Source: Ernst & Young Tel: +44 1 179 812 325
1. This indicates US states with RPS and favorable renewable energy regimes Email: aperkins@uk.ey.com
Arnaud Bouille
North Sea Tel: +44 1 392 284 392
Wave energy developer Aquamarine Power announced Email: abouille@uk.ey.com
successful test results from its Oyster wave energy converter,
exporting electricity to the national grid at the New and
Renewable Energy Centre near Newcastle in the UK. The test
confirmed the full-scale device will have a capacity of just
over 350kW.


Feature – solar indices at May 2009
Solar Solar Concentrated
Rank1 Country index photovoltaic solar power
1 US1 73 72 75
2 Spain 67 65 71
3 Germany 65 74 28
4 Italy 64 66 60
5 India 61 61 58
6 Greece 56 60 43
7 Australia 55 57 46
8 France 53 61 23
9 Portugal 51 58 22
10 China 46 48 36 “Supporting the road to grid parity,
11 Japan 43 48 23 tariff degression policies in, for
11 Austria 43 53 N/A example, Germany and Spain are seen
13 Brazil 40 44 28 as a way to force efficiencies into the
13 Turkey 40 43 28 supply chain and lower project costs.”
15 UK 38 47 N/A
16 Netherlands 37 47 N/A
17 Sweden 35 43 N/A We expect the CSP market to grow significantly over the
medium term, due to a number of factors. One key driver is
18 Poland 34 42 N/A
the ability to combine CSP plants with other power generation
19 Canada 32 40 N/A technologies, specifically CCGT plants and create integrated solar
19 Denmark 32 40 N/A combined cycle plants, or biomass facilities. Additionally, CSP
plants can employ heat storage facilities, through molten salts
21 Ireland 28 35 N/A
or ceramic heat trapping technologies and stretch generation
21 Belgium 28 34 N/A time beyond daylight hours. The combination and creation of
23 New Zealand 25 31 N/A hybrid generation facilities allows the development of renewable
energy generation assets onto existing infrastructure, therefore
24 Norway 24 30 N/A
improving project economics, and the ability to provide base
25 Finland 20 25 N/A load power.
The PV market is expected to grow by over 30GW by 2012
and is reaching a mature stage, with many market players
spanning large parts of the value chain. However, the solar PV
The long-term solar indices value chain is facing a period of oversupply, compounded by
The solar index has been enhanced this issue with the inclusion falling silicon prices; we expect consolidation to occur as smaller
of a CSP index. CSP is sometimes referred to as solar thermal manufacturers struggle during the recession.
electricity generation (STEG).
However, a considerable CSP pipeline of around 7GW now exists
The solar index now combines the attractiveness of a market at a global level, having developed from historically very modest
for PV industry investment and CSP industry investment with a levels. The growth in the CSP sector is supported by a growth
weighting of 80:20 respectively. in project size. Early CSP projects were installed with less than
50MW capacity, whereas recent and planned projects, employing
The decision to enhance the solar index with individual PV
parabolic trough technology, are starting at 50MW installed
and CSP indices is driven through anticipated market growth
capacity and above.
in each market, the different market dynamics and market/
technology suitability. Many developers are stating that grid parity, being the point at
which electricity from solar PV costs the same as conventional
power, could be reached by 2012-14 in some markets.
Supporting the road to grid parity, tariff degression policies
in, for example, Germany and Spain are seen as a way to force
efficiencies into the supply chain and lower project costs.


Feature – solar indices at May 2009 (cont’d)

Solar photovoltaic index – top 10 Concentrated solar power index – top 10
Rank Country Solar photovoltaic Concentrated solar
Rank Country power
1 Germany 74
1 US1 75
2 US1 72
2 Spain 71
3 Italy 66
3 Italy 60
4 Spain 65
4 India 58
5 India 61
5 Australia 46
5 France 61
6 Greece 43
7 Greece 60
7 China 36
8 Portugal 58
8 Brazil 28
9 Australia 57
8 Germany 28
10 Austria 53
8 Turkey 28
1. This indicates US states with RPS and favorable renewable energy regimes Source: Ernst & Young
The solar PV index at May 2009 is led by Germany, whose
position is based on a stable tariff regime, albeit with reducing CSP technology requires solar resources over a certain level,
tariffs going forward, and an established domestic supply chain. which are found approximately between the 40th parallels North
With the price of silicon falling in line with the general and South. As such, countries outside this bracket are not scoring
commodity price trend, expectations are that Germany’s on the CSP index.
installation rate will continue. The US leads the CSP index at May 2009. The US’ score is driven
The US, in second place in the solar PV index, lies just behind by world-class resource in south western states and favorable
Germany. The US has significant resource as well as a desire to support from Department of Treasury grants.
use renewables as a tool to overcome the recession, as seen in Just behind the US, Spain has seen significant CSP market growth
President Obama’s stimulation measures announced last issue. in recent years and has a considerable proportion of near-term
The impact of these measures may already be seen, following global forecast growth. A strong solar thermal tariff and suitable
several manufacturing scale-up and new PV projects announced resources drive Spain into second place. However, issues exist
this quarter. with the tariff which hold Spain back in the CSP index.
Third in the solar index, Italy has abundant resource and a The US and Spain are expected to be the two key solar CSP
strong feed-in tariff, but a market cap of 1,200MW. growth markets; as a consequence, there is a significant gap
Administrative processes continue to restrain Italy’s solar between the US and Spain, and the following countries.
PV attractiveness; however, there is hope that these can be
resolved and streamlined. 11 index points behind Spain, Italy ranks third in the CSP index
at May 2009. CSP projects are being constructed and potential
Behind Italy lies Spain in fourth place. The Spanish PV exists to develop more, as the government has provided a feed-in
market boomed and installed over 1GW in 2008. However, tariff allowing €220/MWh-€280/MWh based on the solar fraction.
regulatory changes reduced the tariff and capped the market Italy has sufficient solar resources, especially in the south, to
at 500MW for 2009. This action reduced Spain’s attractiveness sustain economic CSP generation and is expected to move up the
relative to its previous position under old legislation. solar CSP index over the forthcoming years.
However, Spain still remains an attractive market, as a
proven market for PV installations which is well understood Just behind Italy, India ranks fourth in the CSP index at May
by the finance community and developers alike and a 20% to 2009. India currently has no CSP projects; however, CSP forms
40% reduction in module prices. a major part of India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change,
launched in June 2008. A number of states have preferential
Traditionally strong in the solar PV manufacturing sector, offtake tariffs which, when combined with a strong resource,
Japan does not feature in the solar PV index top 10. This is a has stimulated interest and generated a considerable pipeline.
consequence of Japan’s recent support package focusing on See page 15 for further details on India’s CSP activity.
domestic and public buildings and not large-scale solar PV
farm development.


Commentary — guidance notes
Long-term index Other renewable energy resources include small hydro, landfill
As stated on page 2, the individual technology indices, gas and wave and tidal technologies. Energy from waste is not
which combine to generate the all renewables index, are made considered. Each of the indices consider, on a weighted basis,
up as follows: the following:

• Renewables infrastructure index – 35% 1. Power offtake attractiveness – 19%: this includes the price
received, the potential price variation and length of PPAs
• Technology factors – 65% granted. Higher scores are also achievable if a government
These guidance notes provide further details on the renewables guarantees the power offtake rather than merchant offtakers.
infrastructure index and the technology factors. 2. Tax climate – 11%: favorable, high-scoring tax climates that
stimulate renewable energy generation can exist in a variety
Renewables infrastructure index of forms and/or structures. The most successful incentives
The renewables infrastructure index is an assessment by country and structures have been direct RE tax breaks or brown
of the general regulatory infrastructure for renewable energy. energy penalties, accelerated tax depreciation on RE assets
On a weighted basis, the index considers: and tax-efficient equity investment vehicles for individuals.

• Electricity market regulatory risk – 29%: markets that are fully 3. Grant/soft loan availability – 9%: grants can be available
deregulated score higher, as they have experienced the ‘market at local, regional, national and international levels, and
shock’ on underlying wholesale prices that this transition may depend on the maturity of a technology as well as
may exert. While this may not affect current projects, these the geographical location of the generating capacity. Soft
effects are particularly important when considering long-term loans have historically been used in pioneering countries of
investment prospects. RE technologies to kick-start the industry. High scores are
achieved through an array of grants and soft loans.
• Planning and grid connection issues – 42%: favorable planning
environments (low failure rates and strong adherence to 4. Market growth potential – 18.5%: this considers current
national targets) score highly. Grid connection scoring is based capacity compared to published targets. Higher scores
on the ease of obtaining a grid connection in a cost-effective are given if ambitious targets have been set and policy
manner. The score also takes account of the degree of grid framework is in place to accelerate development. The realism
saturation for intermittent technologies. of targets is taken into account as well as the seriousness
with which they are being pursued (e.g., penalties in place for
• Access to finance – 29%: a market with a mature renewable non-compliance).
energy financing environment, characterized by cheap access to
equity and good lending terms, will score higher. 5. Current installed base – 8%: high installed bases demonstrate
that the country has an established infrastructure and
This generic renewables infrastructure index is combined supply chain in place, which will facilitate continued growth
with each set of technology factors to provide the individual and, in particular, encourage the repowering of older projects.
technology indices.
6. Resource quality – 19%: for example, wind speeds and
solar intensity.
Technology factors
7. Project size – 15.5%: large projects provide economies
These comprise six indices providing resource-specific
of scale and a generally favorable planning environment,
assessments for each country, namely:
which facilitates project development financing.
1. Onshore wind index
2. Offshore wind index
3. Solar PV index
4. Solar CSP index
5. Geothermal index
6. Biomass and other resources index


Commentary — guidance notes (cont’d)

Near-term wind index In the offshore near-term wind index, countries with no projects
As stated on page 2, the near-term wind index focuses on estimated to reach construction in the next two years (early 2009
factors of most immediate concern to near-term investment in to end 2010) are excluded.
wind energy. The scoring follows the same methodology as for It should be noted that the market growth potential score is
the long-term wind index, but with a more focused set of based on a view taken of a range of business analysts’ forecasts
parameters and a tailored weighting. Therefore, the indices and Ernst & Young’s own market knowledge. There is significant
consider the following, on a weighted basis, for both onshore variation between analysts’ views on each market, and within
and offshore wind separately: some markets, the variation is greater than in others. The
• Power offtake attractiveness – 27% forecasts used are a market view only and the scores in no way
guarantee that the forecasted capacity will be built.
• Tax climate – 8%
While comparisons have been made between scores in the
• Resource quality – 14% long-term and near-term wind indices, it should be emphasized
• Market growth potential (mid-2009 to mid-2011) – 40% that, due to the different weightings and parameters used,
these cross-comparisons are of a narrative nature only and by
• Project size – 11% no means indicate any quantitative valuation.


Glossary
Abbreviation Definition
AD Anaerobic Digestion
CAI Country attractiveness index
CCGT Combined cycle gas turbine
CHP Combined heat and power
CSP Concentrated solar power
EIA Environmental impact assessment
EU European Union
GDP Gross domestic product
GW Giga watt
GWh Giga watt hour
IPO Initial public offering
ITC Investment tax credit (US)
JV Joint venture
km Kilometer
KW Kilowatt
M&A Mergers and acquisitions
MoU Memorandum of understanding
MW Mega watt
MWh Mega watt hour
MWth Mega watt therm
OEM Original equipment manufacturer
P/E ratio Price-earnings ratio
PFI Private finance initiative
PPA Power purchase agreement
PTC Production tax credit (US)
PV Photovoltaic
RE Renewable energy
ROCs Renewables Obligations Certificates
TWh Terra watt hour


Company index
Company Page Company Page Company Page
ABB 20 Denker & Wulf 13 IBC Solar AG 9

Acciona S.A 9, 14 Deutsche KWK GmbH 9 Iberdrola 7

Act Solar 8 DIF Renewable Energy 13 Iberdrola Renovables 7

AIG Financial Products Corp 8 DONG Energy 8, 17 Indiabulls 15

Airtricity 17 Dutch Infrastructure Fund 13 Ineos Chlor 17

Aktiv Wind 8 e.n.o. energy 13 Innovent GmbH 8
Alberta Wind Energy Corporation Econcern 14 Instytut Paliw i Energetyki
8 18
(AWEC) Odnawialnej
EDP Renovaveis 7
Allianz Specialised Investments 13 Inveravante 14
EDP Renovaveis Brasil 8
Allied Engineering Co Ltd (KEL) 15 Investec Bank 20
Eirgrid 20
Amper Central Solar S.A 9 J&S Marine 17
EnBW 8
Aquamarine power 16, 20 John Laing PLC 17
Enel 8
Archimede Solar Energy 9 Juwi Holding AG 9, 13
Energieanlagen 20
Atlantis Resources 9, 20 Keppel Seghers 17
Epuron 13 Kerala Electrical & Allied
AXA Private Equity 16 15
ErgyCapital 16 Engineering Company (KEL)
Baugrund Sued Gesellschaft fuer
9 Lauren Engineers & Constructors 12
Geothermie mbH Ersol 13
Bharat Heavy Electrical Ltd (BHEL) 15 Mainstream Renewable Power 8
eSolar 12
Bharat Starch Industries 15 Max Weishaupt GmbH 9
Essar 15
Bord Gais Eireann 8 Mitsubishi Corporation 9
ETA Ascon Star Group 15
Borusan Holding 8 MMA Renewable Ventures LLC 9
ETA Powergen Pvt. Ltd 15
Bosch Group 12 Morgan Stanley 9
Euro Ceramics 15
BP 9 Municipal Mortgage & Equity LLC 9
EuroTrust 8
Bremer 9 National Semiconductor
First Solar Inc 8, 9, 13 8
Corporation
Carnegie Corporation 20
First Wind 19 Nippon Oil Corporation 8
Cassiopea PV srl 16
Fotowatio Renewable Ventures, Inc 9 NordLB 9
CEE Bioenergie Holding 13
FPL, Florida Power and Light 7, 12 OptiSolar Inc 8
China Guangdong Nuclear Power
8 Ghodawat 15 Park Wiatrowy Suwalki Sp zoo 8
Group
China Guangdong Nuclear Wind Global Yatirim Holding AS 9 Park Wiatrowy Tychowo Sp zoo 8
8
Power Co
Greater Manchester Waste PEP S.A 18
China Meteorological 17
14 Disposal Authority
Administration (CMA) Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Grupo Ibereolica 15 8, 12
China National Offshore Oil (PG&E)
14
Corporation Haryana Energy Development Polish Energy Partners SA 8
15
Agency
CLP Holdings Limited 9
HgCapital Renewable Power Pro2 Anlagentechnik GmbH 9
8
CNOOC New Energy 14 Partners Fund Reliance 15
Conergy 13 Hydro Tasmania 8


Company index (cont’d)

Company Page
Renerco Renewable Energy
13
Concepts
Roaring 40s Renewable Energy
8
Pty Ltd
RWE Innogy 9, 20

RWE Renewables Polska 8, 18

Sambhav Energy 15

Sathyam Power Ltd 15

SgurrEnergy 14

Shell 7

Siemens 9

Sinohydro Corporation 14

Sinohydro Renewable Energy 14

SM Environmental Technologies 15

Sorne Wind Limited 8

Space Energy Corporation 8

Statkraft 9, 20

StatoilHydro 20

SunRay Renewable Energy 16

Surya Chakra 15

Tata Power 15

Tozzi Group 16

TRE & Partners S.p.a 16

Trina Solar Limited 16

Viridor Waste Management Limited 17
Western Area Power
10
Administration
Westphalia-Lippe Agricultural
9
Association
White Owl Capital AG 9

Windfarm Elebras Cidreira 8

Xinjiang Goldwind 7

Yesil Enerji AS 9


Ernst & Young Ernst & Young

Renewable Energy Group Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory

With a dedicated 50-strong team of international advisors operating from our UK About Ernst & Young
member firm, supported by a network of over 65 experienced professionals from our Ernst & Young is a global leader in
member firms worldwide, Ernst & Young’s Renewable Energy Group helps clients to assurance, tax, transaction and advisory
increase value from renewable energy activity. Members of the group provide advice services. Worldwide, our 135,000 people
and services in the following areas: are united by our shared values and an
unwavering commitment to quality. We
• Financial advisory and valuation • Strategy review make a difference by helping our people,
our clients and our wider communities
• Financial modeling and structuring • Technologies achieve their potential.
• Taxation • Onshore and offshore wind
For more information, please visit
• Finance raising • Biomass www.ey.com.
• Asset value optimization • Biofuels Ernst & Young refers to the global
• Market entry strategy • Energy from waste organization of member firms of
Ernst & Young Global Limited, each
• Procurement strategy • Wave and tidal
of which is a separate legal entity.
• PPA tendering • Solar Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK
• Feedstock strategy • Fuel cells company limited by guarantee, does
not provide services to clients.
• Transaction support • CHP
EYG no. DE0085
• PE advice • Landfill gas
• IPO advice • Hydro © 2009 EYGM Limited.
• JI/CDM financing • Carbon capture and storage All Rights Reserved.
This publication contains information in summary
• Strategic partnering form and is therefore intended for general guidance
only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed
research or the exercise of professional judgment.
Neither EYGM Limited nor any other member of the
global Ernst & Young organization can accept any
responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting
or refraining from action as a result of any material
in this publication. On any specific matter, reference

Contact should be made to the appropriate advisor.

DPD11261.indd (UK) 05/09. Artwork by London DPD.

For further information on our services and for future copies of the indices,
please visit our website www.ey.com/renewables or contact:
Ben Warren Andrew Perkins
Partner Director
bwarren@uk.ey.com aperkins@uk.ey.com

Dane Wilkins Arnand Bouille
Director Director
dwilkins1@uk.ey.com abouille@uk.ey.com

Enquiries to the Guest Columnist Jonathan Johns should be addressed to
mtoy@uk.ey.com

Country attractiveness indices production supported by:
Phil Dominy Mark Porter
Senior Executive – Project Finance Executive – Project Finance
pdominy@uk.ey.com mporter@uk.ey.com

Sam Reed
Executive – Project Finance
sreed2@uk.ey.com

Renewable energy country attractiveness indices

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