Refractory Minerals Outlook: Minerals Matter

Minerals Matter
Refractory raw material
supply trends and developments
Networking and knowledge for the industrial minerals business

• Launched in January 2015
Mike O’Driscoll Ismene Clarke
• Extensive experience & reputation
• Specialist conferences
• Market research

AT A GLANCE
A-Z GUIDE
WHICH MINERALS
FOR WHICH
MARKETS
• Leading industrial minerals
• Main raw material feedstock
• Key specified chemical component
• World production
• Main source countries
• Leading consuming markets
For a copy of the Mineral Market Matrix® Wall
Chart, please contact:
Ismene Clarke | ismene@imformed.com
+44 (0)7905 771 494
Please note: postage charges will apply

enquiries@imformed.com ▪ +44 (0)1372 450 679 ▪ mobile +44 (0)7985 986 255
Upcoming conferences

enquiries@imformed.com ▪ +44 (0)1372 450 679 ▪ mobile +44 (0)7985 986 255
Speakers confirmed so far:
Minerals recovery from secondary raw materials
Nenad Tenasic, Managing Director, Horn GmbH & Co. KG,
Germany
Recycling refractories from an end user’s viewpoint
Werner Odreitz, Purchasing Director, Secondary Raw
Materials, RHI AG, Austria
Recycling of spent refractories
Melvyn Bradley, Technical Director, LKAB Minerals Ltd, UK
Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) in
recycling of refractory material outbreak
Dr Christian Bohling, Chief Executive Officer, Secopta GmbH,
Germany
Alumina from aluminium salt slag
Howard Epstein, Technical Consultant, RVA, France
Cenospheres from fly ash: development and markets
Erwin Grossman, Head of Sales, Mine Feuerfest GmbH,
Germany

Outline
1. Big Picture: industrial minerals and the supply chain
2. Refractory minerals overview
3. Refractory minerals focus:
• Magnesia
• Graphite
• Bauxite
• Andalusite
4. Conclusions & Outlook
Minerals Matter Refractory mineral supply & demand
©IMFORMED 2015 | imformed.com

Dr. Andus Buhr, UNITECR 2015 Keynote Speaker
Global Technical Director Refractories, Almatis GmbH
“Refractories are the tools for steelmaking”
“Minerals are the ‘DNA’ or building blocks of refractories”
Mike O’Driscoll, UNITECR 2015 Raw Materials Speaker
Director, IMFORMED

 “industrial minerals” = a wide range of natural minerals, rocks,
derivatives, and synthetic minerals, exploited for their non-
metallurgical value.
1. Industrial minerals & the supply chain
 Physical and chemical properties make good their application in
a wide variety of industrial and domestic uses – and refractories
is one of the most important.
 Without industrial minerals, most of mankind’s material
achievements and products, involving the simplest to the most
sophisticated methods, would not be possible.
 In general, industrial minerals are large volume, low value
commodities.
 Market driven: “Without a market, a mineral deposit is merely a
geological curiosity” Peter Harben , Consultant

Roofing materials
kaolin, iron oxide,
talc, calcium
carbonate, feldspar
Ceramics
silica sand, talc, calcium
carbonate, feldspar, kaolin,
wollastonite, zircon
Cosmetics/Pharma
talc, diatomite,
silica, magnesia,
bentonite, kaolin,
mica, calcium
carbonate, fluorspar,
soda ash, borates,
iodine, lithium
Solar cells
quartz, fused
silica, silicon
carbide, fluorspar,
wollastonite, talc
Insulation
kaolin, bauxite, alumina, dolomite,
basalt, silica sand, soda ash, borates,
calcium carbonate, vermiculite, perlite,
diatomite
Wallboard
gypsum
Paper
kaolin, talc, calcium
carbonate, TiO2
Computer/IT devices
rare earths, alumina
trihydrate, magnesium
hydroxide, talc, calcium
carbonate, quartz,
lithium, graphite
Source: Original house schematic Pinkpig
Paint
talc, kaolin, calcium carbonate,
barite, TiO2, wollastonite, mica,
iron oxide, diatomite, feldspar,
syenite
Light bulbs
silica sand,
fused silica,
quartz, rare
earths, soda ash,
calcium
carbonate
Cat litter
bentonite, attapulgite,
diatomite, zeolite,
sepiolite
Saucepans – ALL metal/steel items
flux minerals: bauxite, olivine, lime,
wollastonite
refractory minerals: alumina,
bauxite, graphite, andalusite, fused
alumina, magnesia, zircon, spinel,
chromite, silicon carbide, kaolin“White” goods
talc, calcium
carbonate,
kaolin,
wollastonite
Oven/water heater/boiler
refractory minerals
Detergent
soda ash,
borates
Refrigerants
fluorspar
DIY tools
silica sand,
fused alumina,
silicon carbide
Automobile (+ ALL plastics)
plastics/rubber: talc, calcium
carbonate, wollastonite, kaolin,
mica, silica sand, alumina,
barite, trihydrate, magnesium
hydroxide
glass: soda ash, calcium
carbonate, silica sand, borates,
kaolin, lithium
engine: rare earths, graphite,
lithium, talc, borates
Bricks, mortar,
cement
kaolin, gypsum,
silica sand,
calcium carbonate,
bauxite, iron oxide
Carpet backing
barite, talc, calcium
carbonate, kaolin
Glass
silica sand, calcium
carbonate, soda ash,
feldspar, syenite,
borates, fluorspar, lithium
TV/DVD
rare earths, borates,
lithium, graphite, quartz
Lightweight construction
materials
diatomite, perlite,
vermiculite
Garden
potash, phosphates,
sulphur, nitrates,
borates, vermiculite,
perlite
House of Minerals

 a fragmented business
 each mineral can serve up to 4-20+ different markets
 each market can demand a range of different minerals, eg.
Talc Paper
Plastics
Ceramics
Glass
Refractories
Chemicals
Borates
Rare earths
Magnesite
Kaolin
Silica
The World Wide Mineral Web!
C
O
M
P
E
T
I
T
I
O
N

 Mineral processing: crude ore desired grade for end user
 Simple to sophisticated methods depending on: quality, end use
Screening
Drying
Washing
Crushing
Silica sand
Screening
Grinding
High temp. calcination
Briquetting
Low temp. calcination
Flotation
Washing
Screening
Crushing
Dead burned magnesia

 Market structure defined by supply chain of mine to market.
Mined & processed
mineral grade
Intermediate
mineral product
Intermediate
mineral market
End user market
Ultimate end user
market
Silica sand
Glass
production
Construction
Abrasive
grade bauxite
Brown fused
alumina
Refractories
production
Steel
production
Ship building
In general Basic examples

 Supply chain = three key tiers (market sectors)
SUPPLY
LOGISTICS
MARKET
Direction
of supply
Direction
of demand

 These three tiers host a range of functional sectors.
MARKET
Direct market Intermediate market End market
LOGISTICS
Trading Processing Transport Inspection Stevedoring Storage Distribution
SUPPLY
Exploration Development Engineering Production Processing

 Market trends shaped by:
• Economy
• Population
• Development
Primary demand
drivers
• Resource-market proximity
• Specific market demand trends
• Limited resource distribution
• Reliance on imports
• China
• Pricing
• Logistics
• World events
Specific
influencing factors

 Influencing factor example: China
Remains a significant supplier of minerals to world markets,
as well as a growing (stalled!) mineral consumer
Rare earths 97%
Refractory bauxite 95%
Fused magnesia 81%
Mica (scrap/flake) 69%
Flake graphite 61%
Wollastonite 59%
Brown fused alumina 55%
Silicon carbide 55%
Fluorspar 53%
Barytes 48%
Dead burned magnesia 44%
Talc 30%
Vermiculite 22%
Share of
global production
© IMFORMED 2015 ▪ www.imformed.com

 Influencing factor
example: Pricing
• Opaque; there is no
exchange.
• Apart from a few
minerals, there is no
formal listing of prices.
• Pricing contracts are
often long term
• Prices influenced by a
range of factors
Price
US$/t
Quality
Volume
Processing
Packaging
Inspection
InsuranceLogistics
Duties
Currency
Market
Relation-
ships

 Influencing factor example: Logistics
Vital, and most often overlooked; can make or break a mineral source
Source: Logistics graphic Santini, Barker, & Bentzen 2006
• Mine to market =
many stages,
many modes.
• Costs can account
for up to 70% of
final delivered
mineral price to
market.

39
7%
35
7%
33
6%
32
6%
32
6%
30
6%
25
5%
25
5%24
5%
24
5%
23
4%
21
4%
19
4%
19
4%
18
3%
17
3%
16
3%
15
3%
13
2%
12
2%
11
2%
10
2%
10
2%
9
2%
8
2%
7
1%
Ceramics
Chemicals
Metallurgy
Agrimarkets
Paint/Pigments
Food/Pharma
Construction
Glass
Plastics/Polymers
REFRACTORIES
Abrasives
Oilfield drilling
Cement
Environment
Paper
Rubber
Cosmetics
Foundry
Welding
Electronics/Electrical
Flame retardants
Detergents
Filtration/Clarification
Absorbents
Friction
Batteries
“Kaleidoscope”
 Refractories ranked 10th (of 26) most important market
 Consumes 38.7% (24) of main industrial minerals (total 62)
≥30
≥20
REFRACTORIES
Total number
of minerals
used in each
market

Raw materials Refractories Refractory markets
Approx. cost Raw materials 40-50% Refractories <2%
Bricks Steel (58-70%)
10-15kg/t
Ladle
70t 1 month
Nonferrous metal
3kg/t
Copper kiln
150t 3 months
Monolithics
Cement
1kg/t
Rotary kiln
250t 10 monthsPrecast parts
Glass
Melt furnace
4kg/t
500-8,500t 10 yr

 Iron & steel dominates refractories market
Steel
58%
Cement/Lime
17%
Ferrous
4%
Non-ferrous
4%
Glass
3%
Incineration
2%
Chemical
1%
Ceramics
1%
Others
6%
Unknown
4%
Source: PRE 2014
2013 EU refractory market
2.9m tonnes
Iron/Steel
73%Cement/Lime
13%
Non-ferrous
4.5%
EEC
4%
Glass
2.5%
Ceramics
2%
Other
1.5%
Source: Roskill 2014
EEC environment/energy/chemicals
2013 World refractory market
38.6m tonnes

Refractory
classification
Industrial mineral
(incl. synthetic)
Main chemical component Primary source country
BASIC Dead burned magnesia 85-99.8% MgO China
Fused magnesia 97-99.8% MgO China
Dead burned dolomite 56-62% MgO, 36-40% CaO USA
Chromite >46% Cr2O3 South Africa
Sintered/fused spinel 66-80% Al2O3, 21-33% MgO China
Olivine 40-50% MgO, 35-45% SiO2 Norway
ACIDIC
High alumina
Low alumina
Silica
Calcined alumina >99.5% Al2O3 China
Fused alumina 94-99.5% Al2O3 China
Calcined bauxite 85-88% Al2O3 China
Sintered/fused mullite 40-75% Al2O3 USA
Andalusite, sillimanite, kyanite 60-65% Al2O3 South Africa
Refractory clays 20-45% Al2O3 China
Pyrophyllite 20-30% Al2O3 South Korea
Quartzite, silica sand >97% SiO2 Regional
Fused silica >99.8% SiO2 USA
SPECIALISED Zircon 66% ZrO2+HfO2 Australia
Zirconia >99% ZrO2 China
Silicon carbide >93% SiC China
Graphite 75-99% C China
INSULATING Diatomite >75% SiO2 USA
Perlite 65-80% SiO2 China
Vermiculite 45% SiO2 South Africa

AUSTRALIA
DBM, FM
Zircon
JAPAN
Syn. DBM
CHINA
DBM, FM
Bauxite
Aluminas
SiC
Graphite
Spinel
Mullite
Zirconia
SOUTH AFRICA
Andalusite
Chromite
Zircon
RUSSIA/CIS
DBM, FM
Aluminas
SiC
EUROPE
DBM, FM
Aluminas
Bauxite
SiC
Andalusite
Spinel
Olivine
DolomiteMEXICO
Syn. DBM, FM
GUYANA
Bauxite
BRAZIL
DBM
Graphite
SiC
INDIA
Graphite
USA
Mullite
Spinel
Dolomite
PERU
Andalusite
CANADA
Graphite
 Comparison of prices for refractory minerals World distribution of primary established sources of main minerals

Mineral producer (own mine)
Mineral processor/distributor
Refractory manufacturer
End user market
Mineral trader
Trad. Captive Direct Captive Recycling
route processing buy production
Exploration, reserves, mining,
processing
Sourcing, logistics, financing
Sourcing, processing, storage,
logistics
Sourcing, processing, storage,
logistics, formulating, application
End use application eg. steel, glass manufacture
 Supply chain options for
raw material supply

 Vertical integration: for some, but not others
• RHI purchases ~800,000 tpa refractory raw materials
• 80% integration with recent years’ acquisitions
Source: RHI

0 500 1000 1500
Chromite
Bauxite
Andalusite
Kyanite
DBM/FM
Mullite
BFA
WFA
Spinel
Graphite
SiC
Zircon
US$/tonne
Minerals
 Comparison of ball-park price ranges for refractory minerals

 Trend in refractory mineral price index 2007-15 (2007 = 100)
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415
Tabular Alumina
Bauxite
WFA
BFA
SiC
Fused Magnesia
Dead Burned Magnesia
Zircon
Andalusite
Source: RHI

0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
'000tonnes
Source: Ted Dickson & Richard Flook 2014
 Estimated world consumption of refractory minerals: total ~35m tonnes

Source: Roskill, Richard Flook 2014
 Declining specific consumption of refractories in steel production

 Japan’s refractory raw material consumption
Source: adapted from Japan Refractories Assoc.
‘000 tonnes‘000 tonnes
DBM
23%
Fused
alumina
12%
Others
8%
Other clay
7%
Recycled
bricks
6%
Chinese
bauxite
6%
Pyrophyllite
5%
Sintered
alumina
5%
FM
5%
Calcined flint
clay
4%
SiC
4%
Alumina cement Calcined alumina
Bauxite Graphite
Spinel Zircon, Zirconia
Mullite Sillimanite, Kyanite
Silica Chromite
Fused silica
<4%
2014 902,600 tonnes
Mullite +56.6% 11,600 t
Spinel +16.5% 13,400 t
Chinese bauxite +12.0% 54,500 t
Sintered alumina -10.3% 43,600 t
Calcined alumina -26.7% 21,600 t
Zircon -40.0% 13,200 t
Pyrophyllite -11.6% 48,500 t
Brick waste -16.7% 56,700 t
860
870
880
890
900
910
920
930
940
950
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Refractories
Refractory minerals

3. Refractory minerals focus: Magnesia supply ~8-10m tpa
Netherlands
36%
USA
16%
Ireland
16%
Mexico
13%
Japan
12%
S. Korea
7%
Synthetic DBM
568,000 t
China (23 >100k tpa)
44%
Russia (2)
17%
Turkey (3)
9%
Slovakia (2)
7%
Brazil
6%
Austria
5%
India (12)
3%
Australia
2%
Natural DBM
6.2m t
Greece N. Korea
Spain Iran
Serbia Saudi Arabia
<1%
 Single/few producers
 China supply dominant
2014 exports: 663,200 DBM
369,200 FM
 Integrated/Captive
Source: Industry sources; USGS data
China
81%
Russia
10%
N. Korea
2%
Turkey
2%
Australia
2%
Norway
2% S. Korea
1%
FM
1.9m t
DBM
78%
FM
22%

3. Refractory minerals focus: Magnesia trends
 Vertical integration: RHI, Magnesita,
Magnezit, Kumas
 Capacity expansions: Magnezit, Kumas
(DBM, FM)
 China
• Slowdown = declining output, closures, prices at production cost, stockpiles
• Electricity cost cut 0.018RMB(US$0.00283)/kWh
• Overcapacity by >200%: DBM 11m tpa; FM 3.6m tpa
• Consolidation & environmental control of Liaoning industry
• North East Asia Magnesia Materials Trading Center
 Magnesitas Navarras new mine at
Borobia, Spain June 2015
 Interest in consumers sourcing ex-China alternatives
 Interest in producers diversifying eg. Nedmag, Terna Mag

3. Refractory minerals focus: Magnesia trends
 New source potential:
Greece: Evia, Terna Mag, (DBM 2016)?
Jordan: Al-Safi, Jormag (DBM)?
Turkey: Kaltun Mining? TurkMag (DBM)?
Saudi Arabia: Zarghat, Ma’aden (DBM?)
Russia: eastern regions Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk Oblast, Jewish AO
Canada: Driftwood Creek, BC, MGX Minerals (end-2016 DBM/FM?)
Timmins Talc Magnesite Project, Deloro,ON, Globex Mining
Australia: Arthur River, Tasmania, Beacon Hill Resources
Bandalup, WA, BMAG
Huandot, NT, Thessaly Resources (DBM?)
Leigh Creek, SA, Archer Exploration
Winchester, NT, Korab Resources

3. Refractory minerals focus: Graphite supply
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Flake
59%Amorphous
40%
Vein
1%
Natural graphite production
650,000 tpa
China
60%Brazil
24%
India
5%
Norway
3%
Russia
3% Other
5%
Flake graphite production
383,500 tpa
Refractories
29%
Foundries &
crucibles
22%
Batteries
19%
Specialist
12%
Lubricants
11%
Other
7%
Graphite market

3. Refractory minerals focus: Graphite trends
 China
• Future supply at risk through
consolidation - Heilongjiang,
Shandong
• 2015 severe winter prolonged
restarts
• Modernisation
• Environmental controls
• Added value industries to consume
more domestically (+ Asia/Japan)
• Reduction of graphite exports
 Brazil/India: domestic focus, few if
any new sources/expansions

 Future demand conflict: rise of Li-ion battery market using 100# FG
will impact FG demand for refractory and foundry markets
Tesla Motors Inc. Gigafactory, Nevada
500,000 units 2020 = 100,000 t FG
Refractories
29%
Foundries &
crucibles
22%Batteries
19%
Specialist
12%
Lubricants
11%
Other
7%
2015
Refractories
39%
Foundries &
crucibles
28%
Specialist
10%
Batteries
9%
Lubricants
9%
Other
5%
2012
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

 New source potential:
 High interest in ex-China
sources
Country Company Project
Australia
Archer Exploration
Campoona & Wilclo
South
Buxton Resources Yalbra
Lamboo Resources McIntosh
Lincoln Minerals Kookaburra Gully
Valence Industries Uley
Brazil Magnesita Refratarios Almenara
Sayona Mining Itabela
Canada Focus Graphite Lac Knife
Mason Graphite Lac Guéret
Northern Graphite Bissett Creek
Ontario Graphite Kearney
Madagascar Energizer Molo
Stratmin Loharano
Malawi Sovereign Metals Duwi
Mozambique Syrah Resources Balama
Triton Minerals Nicanda Hill
Russia Dalgraphite/Donkarb Soyuznoye
Sweden Flinders Resources Woxna
Talga Resources Nunasvaara
Tanzania IMX Resources Chilalo
Kibaran Resources Epanko
Magnis Resources Nachu
USA Alabama Graphite Coosa
Graphite One Graphite Creek
• Production started
• Aug 2015: TKMet 20,000
tpa refractory graphite
offtake deal with Kibaran;
on stream 2017
• July 2015: Valence signs
3yr US$50m offtake deal
with A-P consumer
• ~150 projects in Canada
& Australia!

3. Refractory minerals focus: Bauxite supply
 Refractory consumption
• 1.4m t calcined bauxite
• 1.6m t brown fused alumina (from
1.4m t abrasive grade bauxite)
Refractories
28%
Cement
22%
Abrasives
22%
Chemicals
8%
Slag
conditioning
9%
Proppants
10%
Other
1%
Non-met. bauxite market
10m tonnes
China
77%
Guyana
6%
India
7%
Russia
9%
Brazil
1%
Refractory grade bauxite production
• Traded globally
• Chinese owned

3. Refractory minerals focus: Bauxite trends
 China
• Market is “dismal”; many plants not
operating with calcined bauxite/BFA
demand down for refractories
• Environmental measures have
restricted/closed mine and plant
capacities over last few years
• Closures in 2014 owing to higher
operating costs and market downturn
• Overall, excess capacity available, some
consolidation in future.
• Demand from smelter grade alumina
sector always a threat, especially with
reduced imports of met. grade bauxite,
eg. from Indonesia

 Guyana
• Bosai Minerals:
− 2014/15 reduced to using one kiln
− RASC grade sales down 16% from 2012
to 177,009 tonnes in 2014 (chemical -
49%; cement -80%);
− July 2015 shutdown kilns #13 and #14;
shift hours reduced/strikes
 Greece:
• 2012 Kerneos 54% stake in Elmin
(500,000 tpa)
• Feb 2015: Kerneos/Elmin buy S&B
Greek bauxite assets (sales 1m tpa)

 Brazil
• 2012 Imerys buys bauxite reserves in Pará, Brazil from Vale (ex-MSL
Minerais)
 Guyana
• First Bauxite:
− June 2015 modified strategy to
develop proppant grades
− 158,000 tpa calcining plant in
Port of South Louisiana, USA
 USA
• June 2015: Shanxi Fangxing Minerals acquired Imerys’
Newell, WV plant for bauxite/BFA

3. Refractory minerals focus: Andalusite supply & trends
Imerys, South
Africa
36%
Imerys, France
21%
Imerys, China
3%
Andalusite
Resources,
South Africa
24%
Andalucita,
Peru
11%
Rest of China
5%
Andalusite production
315,000 tonnes
60% Imerys
 Elsewhere:
• Imerys unexploited reserves in
Peru; “5%” of Paita deposit
• Latin Resources Ltd,
Guadalupito andalusite/mineral
sands project in northern Peru
 Imerys bid to acquire Andalusite
Resources
• Blocked April 2015: SA
Competition Commission
“would have created a
monopoly”
• Imerys appeal ongoing H2 2015

 Minerals: do matter, vital to refractory market; supply chains must be understood,
with awareness of limited sources and appreciation of competing markets
 Current status: a buyers market, demand flat, prices down for 2015/early
2016; but a chance to seek/assess new sources before recovery? Current low
prices a barrier to new project development.
 Refractory market drivers: key to mineral demand; despite declining SRC long
term (slow) growth assured with steel production increase to 2bn tonnes by
2025, 4.9% CAGR ex-China, driven by India (14.1%).
 Refractories: higher purity steels = more synthetic minerals, aluminas, less C.

 Substitution/Recycling: formulations EU-mineral based; increased interest in
recycling as more mainstream raw material source; emerging processors specific
to recycling; negligble impact to primary sources at present, but this will change
 China: consolidation likely to reduce number of operations, but quality should
be unaffected; while supply concerns may have eased, still a drive to secure
alternatives; lasting impact of downturn on producers forced to close/reduce
capacity may bolster ex-China mineral projects
 Iran: sanctions lifted; opportunities for new supply sources & target markets
 Vertical integration: large integrated groups will continue to invest in mineral
sources; perhaps more consolidation in future

Please contact me with any questions or comments, or for more information.
mike@imformed.com | +44 (0)1372 450 679 | mobile +44 (0)7985 986 255
Thank you for your attention
See you in Vienna next year…

Refractory Minerals Outlook: Minerals Matter

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