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SPECIAL REPORT 
“HOUSING THE GROWING POPULATION 
OF THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA” 
FEBRUARY 2013 
Prepared by KCORP for the Jeddah Economic Gateway 
www.jeg.org.sa 
www.kcorp.net
30% of Saudi population own homes, 
global average 70%, UAE home ownership 45% 
0.4 Million Shortage of households 
Demand 2.7 Million; Supply 2.3 Million 
1.0 Million homes to be created by 2015, 
young and fast growing population, rapid urbanization and rising 
personal income driving the demand 
Challenges in Provision of Affordable Hous ing 
• Lack of mortgage system and low financing penetration 
• Lack of affordable housing 
• Shortage of arable land for affordable housing construction 
• Supply – Demand gap 
• Rising land prices 
• Cultural and Infrastructural considerations 
Resolving Housing Woe s 
• Providing stimulus for affordable housing construction 
– Ninth 5-year Development Plan aims at investin g 
SAR 1.4 trillion on physical and social infrastructure 
between 2010 and 2014 
– In 2011, royal decree announced allocation of 
SAR 250 billion, to build 500,000 housing units 
– Package of spending measures amounting to 
SAR 458 billion 
– Ministry of Housing plans implementation of program to 
construct 200,000 housing units 
• Private financing 
– Mortgage market expected to reach SAR 86.7 billion 
within 3 years of law being enacted 
– REDF, which provides low-cost loans to Saudis for home 
purchases, had its capital boosted by SAR 40 billion, 
thereby speeding up its loan approval process 
2
Northern 
Border 
Riyadh 
Jubail 
Najran 
Hail 
Makkah 
Asir 
Madinah 
Tabuk 
Eastern 
Province 
Al Bahah 
Jizan 
Qasim 
Al Qurayyat Jouf 
Dammam 
Taif 
Buraydah 
Hofuf 
Arar 
Yanbu 
Jeddah 
Abha 
Sakaka 
Key Indicators KSA 
Population in Million (2010) 27.1 
Population between 16 to 64 years of age 66% 
Area (Sq. Km.) 2,149,690 
Nominal GDP 2010 ($ B) 448 
Nominal GDP 2015E ($ B) 696 
GDP CAGR (2010–15E) 9.2% 
Per Capita Income (PPP)($) 23,701 
Average Inflation (2010–15E) 4.6% 
3
Fuelling demand for affordable housing 
The housing market in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) continues 
to expand on the back of high economic growth, favorable population 
demographics, and increasing urbanization. 
Economic growth and growing population will trigger 
the need for affordable housing 
Expected GDP Growth at Current Prices in KSA (2010–15E) 
448 
CAGR: 9.2% 
560 582 
621 
800 
700 
600 
500 
400 
300 
200 
100 
Population & Age Group 
Composition (2005–15E)1 Rate of Urbanization1 
24.4 
CAGR 
2.2% 
CAGR 30.5 
2.3% 
27.4 
63.5% 66.6% 67.7% 
Rate of Urbanization1 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
1. Source: UN population division, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/Panel_profiles.htm 
658 
696 
- 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 
$ Billion 
GDP per 
Capita Growth 16,267 19,890 20,214 21,101 21,920 22,725 
0 
2005 2010 2015E 
Population (M) 
0-15 16-64 65 and above 
82% 
83.8% 
CAGR: 2.2% 
85.6% 
87.5% 
89.4% 
91.4% 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 
4
Housing Ownership Scenario in KSA 
KSA has been benchmarked with similar 
countries in terms of GDP, population and 
income levels. Based on this comparison, only 
30% of the Saudi population own homes, a 
ratio well below that of most developed and 
many emerging economies, while the global 
average stands at 70% 
Real estate consultancy 
Colliers International believes 
the home ownership market is 
hampered by affordability 
constraints, ongoing increases in 
selling prices, and the shortage 
in supply of new residential 
units aimed at the lower and 
middle income segments 
Only 30% of the Saudi population own homes 
Home Ownership Rate by Resident Population2 
Key Demand Centers for Housing 
~66 % of the nation’s residents are clustered in three regions 
Total Polulation by Provinces (million)3 
98% 
75% 70% 66% 
30% 
70% 
Singapore Brazil Turkey US Saudi Arabia Global Average 
6.9 6.8 
4.1 
1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 
Jeddah 
(Mecca) 
Riyadh 
Dammam 
(Eastern) 
Aseer 
Madinah 
Jazan 
Qasim 
Tabuk 
Hail 
Najran 
Al Jouf 
Al Baha 
Northern 
Borders 
2. Source: Zawya 
3. Source: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 
5
House ownership is still at a very low level in 
these three cities. 
Riyadh and Jeddah registered a house-hold 
ownership of 33% and 34% 
respectively, for the total number of house-holds 
in those provinces. Household owner-ship 
for Dammam was higher at 40%. 
% of Owned Households of the Total Households 
in Three Major Cities4 
33% 34% 40% 
Riyadh 
Supply 
The total inventory across Riyadh is roughly 
900,000 housing units. Data from the Min-istry 
of Economy and Planning and Ministry 
of Municipal and Rural Affairs suggests an-nual 
residential completions in Riyadh will be 
around 30,000 units across all sectors (villa, 
apartment, social, compound etc.). 
Many of the projects announced in 2008 (such 
as Al Wasl, Ajmakan and Shams Ar-Riyadh) 
have still not delivered any units and many are 
now being restructured. 
Small builders continue to drive the residen-tial 
sector. There are a handful of professional 
developers, but these do not account for de-veloping 
more than 10% of Riyadh’s annual 
housing requirement. 
According to the Ministry of 
Economy and Planning, Riyadh, 
Jeddah and Khobar account for 
approximately 71% of total new 
housing demand and are expected 
to suffer from undersupply 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
The Government is taking action to increase 
the supply of housing for Saudis falling in the 
lower income bracket. In 2006 the Ministry 
of Social affairs initiated a housing scheme to 
build 66,000 units in different regions of the 
Kingdom. 
Demand 
While most professional developers have been 
providing houses priced at over SAR 1 mil-lion, 
the demand remains in the SAR 500,000 
to SAR 750,000 range. 
Expatriate residents now make up a substan-tial 
portion of the buying population in Ri-yadh, 
representing up to 30% of purchasers at 
some new developments. 
Foreign residents are typically allowed to buy 
for their own occupation in locations approved 
by the Ministry of Interior. There are some re-strictions 
on reselling though. 
6.8 6.9 
4.1 
Riyadh province Jeddah (Mecca province) Dammam (Eastern province) 
Total residing population Total number of households 
0% 
% of owned households 
1.2 1.3 
0.6 
4. Source: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 
6
Majority of New Housing Supply is in Luxury Villas 
Key Residential Projects 
(Completion Year) Type Housing Units 
Blncyah (2010) Residential villa 144 
Canary Villas (2010) Residential villa 82 
Sindad (2010) – 384 
Al Bayt 32 (2012) Affordable 400 
housing apartment 
Al Ghorub (2012) Multi residential units. 300 
Apartment and villa 
Shams Al Riyadh (2013) All luxury villas 3,189 
Nismat Riyadh (2013) 450 villas, rest affordable housing 4,200 
Al Dar (2013) 20% for large multi units for middle 135 
income, rest for low cost housing 
Manzel Qurtaba (2014) – 1,400 
Home finance is an important tool for enabling 
affordability. For new community developments 
‘mortgages’ are used to finance up to 40% of 
sales. According to the notary public office in 
Riyadh, between 3,000 and 4,000 ‘mortgage’ 
Jeddah 
instruments are registered annually. 
Supply 
The Jeddah residential market remains dominated by small developers and individual owners, with the larg-er 
developers delivering just 2,010 additional units to the residential market in 2010. Future housing supply 
is likely to be reduced as applications for planning permission and building permits are being reviewed with 
extra scrutiny after the impact of the record rainfall and floods in Jeddah in November 2009. Development 
of two gated communities targeting the expatriate sector have been announced in the Rawdah and Zahra 
districts. 
Majority of New Housing Supply is in Luxury Apartments 
Key Residential Projects 
(Completion Year) Type Housing Units 
Lamaar Towers (2012) Luxury apartments and offices 550 
Jeddah Gate (2013) Affordable apartments for low 6,000 
and mid income group and offices 
Afsan Phase 1 (2014) – 2,500 
Diamond (2015) – 300 
Al Mada Tower (2015) High rise luxury apartments 998 
Shams Al Arous (2016) Residential villas, apartment, offices and parks 10,000 
Awaan Project (2016) – 2,500 
7
At King Abdullah Economic City, the Bay La Sun apartments developed by Emaar have opened bookings 
this year, most units priced at over SAR 1 million/unit. The next residential development within this pro-ject 
‘Hawadi’ is much more affordable, offering a range of apartments and duplexes targeted at the middle 
income bracket, priced between SAR 250,000 and SAR 750,000. Large districts in the south east of Jeddah 
have been set aside by the municipality for development of low-income housing. These areas will be needed 
to accommodate the population that will eventually be resettled from the Khozama and Ruwais districts 
that are to be redeveloped by public-private consortiums. 
Demand 
KSA’s Ministry of Commerce estimates that formation of new households will result in demand for around 
40,000 new housing units per annum over the next few years. 
Eastern Province – Dammam 
Supply 
The most dominant markets in the Eastern province are 
Dammam, Dhahran and Al Khobar. The importance of these 
cities is underscored by the fact that Dammam is the third 
largest city in Saudi Arabia, and ARAMCO, the state-owned 
oil company, is based in Dhahran. 
e quality of residential 
stock (recently added or under 
construction) in Dammam and 
Al Khobar is higher than that of 
other cities in the country, due to a 
higher standard of construction, 
improved finishing, and better 
periodic maintenance. 
– Colliers’ Research 
Key Residential Projects 
(Completion Year) Type Housing Units 
Murcia Apartments (2012) – 78 
Murjana (2014) Luxury villas 400 
Masaken Homes (2014) – 250 
Dammam Hills (2015) Villas for 
mid to high segment 700 
Abraj Al Salam (2015) 12 luxury villas, rest are 850 
apartments for mid to low segment 
Khobar Lakes (2016) – 2,100 
Dammam, Dhahran and Al Khobar are increasingly being seen as one major unified city that is connected 
by new residential and commercial developments, rather than three individual cities. 
Dhahran is also expanding its residential developments near major thoroughfares such as the Prince Mo-hammad 
Bin Fahd Road in new districts such as Al Qusoor. Unlike Dammam which is dominated by large 
developers, Dhahran is characterized by the presence of medium-sized developers. Khobar is expanding 
mostly towards the south near Azizia Beach with medium-sized developers delivering most of the stock 
Stark contrasts are observed between mid-scale developers operating in Dammam and Khobar and those 
in Riyadh and Jeddah. Developers in Dammam and Khobar are more active with multiple ongoing projects 
and have a higher number of units per project. 
8
Demand 
There is a preference for quality apartment developments in Dammam and Al Khobar. A fitting example 
would be the Al Hamraa District (also commonly known as Shobily High Rise) in Al Khobar, which is a 
prime location for quality apartments. Most home buyers in the district believe in the investment potential 
of their purchases, particularly with the expected forthcoming completion of the Shobily Masterplan, which 
has been on hold for several years. 
Challenges in provision of affordable housing 
Lack of mortgage system and low financ-ing 
penetration 
Inadequate housing finance constitutes a major 
challenge for the provision of affordable housing 
in the country. Housing finance includes plot dis-tribution, 
land servicing, and the provision of loan 
and mortgage facilities through the banking system: 
The much-debated Saudi mortgage law has been in 
the pipeline for almost a decade. Market demand is 
suppressed by limited mortgage availability. The law 
aims to provide: 
• Better lending access to home ownership 
seekers 
• Wider funding options for low and middle 
income groups 
The law has been recently approved and is await-ing 
ratification. This law also includes articles on 
property repossession and asset liquidation in the 
case of delinquencies. An extremely low percentage 
of Saudi home purchases are financed by mortgag-es. 
Experts estimate that Saudi Arabia has only a 
2% mortgage penetration in its real estate market. 
Mortgages are difficult to obtain for those on low 
monthly salaries due to the limitations of the mort-gage 
market. Other obstacles include the restriction 
of mortgage information, a dearth of innovative so-lutions, 
and an inadequate regulatory framework. 
Moreover, borrowers have tended to treat extended 
loans as charity and default on payments is high. 
Bank financing is still relatively limited and out of 
reach for a significant proportion of the population. 
Real estate and construction loans accounted for 7.1 
% of total bank credit in 2010 while home loans 
were only 2.8% of total bank credits. This is very 
low in comparison to other GCC countries. 
Structural Factors 
KSA has Very Low Housing Loan Penetration Compared 
to Other Middle East Countries 
Housing loan as % of GDP (2010) 
0.5% 1% 2% 3.4% 
7.2% 7.9% 
12.2% 
15% 15.5%15.9% 
Egypt 
Algeria 
KSA 
Oman 
Lebanon 
Jordan 
Tunisia 
Kuwait 
UAE 
Morocco 
Access to housing finance has been tightly constrained with very little mort-gage 
financing available. Some subsidized loans were available through the 
Real Estate Development Fund (REDF), a state-funded entity. But they had 
a very long waiting list, and loan amounts were not necessarily sufficient to 
cover construction costs, says David O. Robinson, IMF mission chief 
9
The Real Estate Development Fund (REDF), es-tablished 
in 1974, was set up to meet the needs and 
aspirations of the Kingdom’s citizens by helping to 
raise the quality of life in society through the devel-opment 
of high quality housing. 
In its first five years, the Fund fulfilled its major 
objective by solving the housing crisis of the time 
engendered by the Kingdom’s extraordinary pace of 
development. 
The total loans disbursed by the Real Estate Devel-opment 
Fund (REDF) since its inception until the 
end of 2006 amounted to SAR 134.1 billion. 
Due to the absence of a mortgage law, the Real Es-tate 
Development Fund (REDF) is the main pro-vider 
of home financing. REDF is not able to meet 
the demand, which is increasing exponentially; 
there are more than 650,000 applications pending 
since the end of 2009, up from 450,000 in 2006, 
mainly due to obstacles faced by REDF in collec-tion 
of debts. This leaves an average earning house-hold 
individual with no option but to live on rent 
instead of buying his own property. 
Supply–Demand Gap 
In 2010, total demand for household units in the 
KSA market was 2,700,000; but the total sup-ply 
was 2,300,000, implying a shortage of 400,000 
household units in the country. 
However there is an oversupply of luxury houses 
and villas. While most professional developers have 
been providing houses priced at over SAR 1 million, 
the demand remains in the SAR 500,000 to SAR 
750,000 range. According to the Government’s 
9th 5-Year Development Plan, 1.2 million units are 
needed over the next five years, (250,000 units every 
year). NCB Capital estimates less aggressive figures, 
predicting that the country will need an additional 
973,000 units over 2010–15 and a total of 2.1 mil-lion 
units over the coming decade (215,000 units 
per year). 
The major driver of housing demand is the young 
and fast growing population base, with an estimated 
1,000,000 new households expected to be created 
across KSA by 2015, which will further exacerbate 
the current shortage. 
Additional Demand of 1 Million Homes by 2015 
Housing market size vs. Total population6 
3,991 
4,208 
4,643 
5,718 
7,080 
22,674 
23,981 
27,137 
31,874 
37,551 
2004 2007 2010 2015 2020 
Total Housing Stock Total Population 
6. Source: CDSI, NCB Estimates 
10
Incremental Housing Demand vs. Investment Required6 
Units SAR Millions 
350,000 
300,000 
250,000 
200,000 
150,000 
100,000 
50,000 
Exorbitantly high prices for housing 
Artificially high-priced land plots are increasingly 
sought as a long-term investment option by high 
net worth Saudis, making these plots inaccessible to 
Saudi citizens and home developers. Though there 
is a shortage of affordable housing, there is an over-supply 
of high end developments. Most developers 
seek profitable luxurious projects to serve the high 
income class. 
Lack of available land for affordable 
housing construction 
Arable land is scarce due to drought, desertification 
and land degradation due to which agricultural pro-ductivity 
and rural subsistence are threatened. Saudi 
Arabia occupies four-fifths of the Arabian Penin-sula 
but the majority of its land is desert. According 
to the World Bank (2009), the percentage of land 
that is arable in Saudi Arabia is only 1.5 percent of 
the total land area. In such conditions, a land owner 
180,000 
160,000 
140,000 
120,000 
100,000 
80,000 
60,000 
40,000 
20,000 
prefers to hold on to 
his land instead 
of turning it 
into an af-fordable 
housing 
develop-m 
e n t . 
Moreo-ver, 
the 
a b s e n c e 
of fees on 
land owners 
motivates owners 
to hold on more to those 
assets. However, it is expected that regulations on 
imposing fees on empty plots of land are expected 
to take effect soon. Many realtors in the Kingdom 
believe that such regulations would help reduce the 
prices of real estate units. 
- 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2014 
2015 
2016 
2017 
2018 
2019 
2020 
Annual New 
Demand 
- 
Estimated Annual 
Investment 
6. Source: CDSI, NCB Estimates 
Because of the strength in the 
market for serviced plots, land 
development (rather than full 
residential development) became a 
popular phenomenon in recent years. 
is trend is, however, expected to be 
curbed by the efforts of the Riyadh 
Municipality and ArRiyadh 
Development Authority to control 
land prices by increasing the 
supply of land in the city 
– Colliers Research 
11
Rising land prices 
While government stimulus has helped launch the sector into gear, 
rising land prices have slowed down the momentum of building 
affordable housing units. In fact, land prices are rising at a much 
higher rate than property prices. 
Prices of developable 
land have been increasing at 
roughly 15% per annum, 
compared to a 5–6% increase in 
prices for housing units, says 
John Harris of 
Jones Lang LaSalle 
Cultural and infrastructural considerations 
Saudi nationals prefer to live in houses rather than apartments. Social 
requirements such as privacy, social cohesion of family members within 
the same housing unit, and independence from residential density are main factors considered for affordable 
housing. 
Location and public transport systems represent another challenge for affordable housing. Most projects 
are usually built outside the boundaries of the city where land is cheaper and these places lack an adequate 
public urban transportation system. The absence of transport disadvantages residents needing to travel to 
work or school as not everyone has access to private cars. 
Initiatives to mitigate housing woes of population 
Government Stimulus Measures 
Creation of new growth centers 
Government is focusing on creating new growth 
centers, away from Riyadh, Mecca and Dammam. 
The Economic Cities Authority, a government 
body, plans to develop Rabigh, Jizan, Madinah and 
Hail as the new growth centers or emerging cit-ies 
of KSA. Rabigh and Jizan are being developed 
with infrastructure projects worth USD 27 billion, 
Madinah and Hail are USD 7 billion and 8 billion 
respectively. The KSA Government also supported 
Emaar Economic City, the developer of the King 
Abdullah Economic City in Rabigh, with an invest-ment 
of USD 1.3 billion in 2011. By 2020 these 4 
cities are forecasted to contribute USD 150 billion 
to GDP and house about 4.5 million people. 
KSA’s growing economy, on the back of high oil 
prices, has led to heavy investment in infrastruc-ture 
including housing over the period 2005–2010. 
The 9th Development Plan aims at investing SAR 
1.4 trillion on physical and social infrastructure be-tween 
2010 and 2014. 
In 2011, a royal decree was announced to allocate 
SAR 250 billion to build 
500,000 housing 
units under the 
newly estab-lished 
Minis-try 
of Hous-ing. 
This will 
in Rabigh has currently 
created 12,000 jobs – 
Fahd al Rasheed, 
Chief executive, 
King Abdullah Economic City 
a c c e l e r a t e 
the supply of 
housing units, 
especially to the 
low and middle in-come 
groups 
King Abdullah 
Economic City 
Saudi authorities have unveiled a package of spend-ing 
measures amounting to SAR 458 billion that is 
set to have a significant impact on economic perfor-mance 
this year and in the future. The extra-budget-ary 
spending, announced by King Abdullah in Feb-ruary 
and March, is primarily aimed at improving 
living conditions, particularly for those in the lower 
income category. 
12
Construction of new Housing 
The biggest single element of the spending is SAR 
250 billion to fund the construction of 500,000 new 
housing units over an unspecified time period. In 
order to construct this number of units in a reason-able 
timeframe, the authorities will need to use pri-vate 
sector developers. 
In terms of providing affordable financing, REDF 
will have a key role to play. REDF, which provides 
low cost loans to Saudis for home purchases, had 
its capital boosted by SAR 40 billion and has been 
instructed to speed up its loan approval process 
Arab News reported that the Ministry of Housing 
plans to implement a program that will result in the 
construction of 200,000 housing units. The ministry 
said that 17,600 units are currently being imple-mented. 
Private financing 
In view of the cramped demand for housing and the 
scale of the Government’s plans, private financing 
will also be necessary in addition to REDF’s recapi-talization. 
The mortgage market is expected to reach 
SAR 86.7 billion within the next three years of the 
mortgage law being enacted. 
Alternative Solutions 
Mortgages customized for low income 
nationals 
The aim is to provide mortgages to modest income 
nationals who are currently locked out of the mort-gage 
market due to low incomes and perceived sus-tainability 
of those incomes. This endeavor would 
be structured as a hybrid between traditional charity 
and a marketplace mortgage company that would 
generally not consider lower income nationals as a 
target market or would charge very high interest to 
justify this perceived higher risk exposure. 
Access the pool of high net worth Saudis 
Route it through the mortgage company to provide 
lower income nationals with long-term mortgages. 
Solar power mud houses 
This concept focuses on changing the types of houses 
offered in the market by making home development 
more economically scalable. The aim is to build tra-ditional 
mud houses from cost-effective materials 
using natural resources and modern technology for 
energy. These houses can be handmade and work-shops 
can be provided. For over a thousand years in 
the Arabian Peninsula, Arabs have built houses out 
of a mixture of natural resources with mud being 
used instead of cement. 
Reducing the block size 
Given the constraints of high land values, a strategy 
to reduce the area of individual villa blocks presents 
a potential tool to increase the supply of affordable 
housing. 
Affordable housing models by govern-ments 
in other countries 
Governments in other countries facing the issue of 
affordable housing for a growing population have 
initiated a range of workable models. In Morocco, 
government and private developers are working to-gether 
to address the need for affordable housing. 
To reduce housing shortages, the Moroccan Gov-ernment 
gave away 3,800 hectares of land at re-duced 
prices to developers for constructing 200,000 
housing units. To qualify for the subsidized land, 
developers were asked to agree to sell flats at below 
140,000 Moroccan dirhams on one third of the al-located 
land, at 200,000 dirham or below, on the 
other third, and they could build properties of their 
choice on the final third. 
13
The Turkish Government has utilized a form of 
public private partnership to deliver mass housing 
projects through TOKI (Housing Development 
Administration of Turkey). TOKI issues tenders 
for disposal of Government-owned land to private 
developers. Developers are asked to submit plans 
as to how many housing units they are willing to 
build on the amount of land awarded and out of 
that how much land are they willing to return to 
TOKI so that it can be used for affordable hous-ing 
by Government for low income groups. This ap-proach 
avoids purchasing of the land by the devel-oper, 
thereby improving the cash flow situation. 
In UAE, reduction in block size for villa plots is a 
new emerging solution by private developers. Hous-ing 
preference of high net worth Emirati families 
can be satisfied by delivering attractive, livable villas 
in a standard villa block of 600 to 650 square meters. 
This represents a saving of around 40% in land area, 
compared to the current standard of villa block size 
of 1050 square meters 
A Canadian government body, Canada Mortgage 
and Housing Corporation (CMHC) provides a 
range of mortgage loan insurance products for 
owned and rented housing. CMHC provides seed 
funding and proposal development funding to pri-vate 
developers, in order to help with some of the 
upfront expenses for developing a housing project. 
CMHC facilitates the production of new affordable 
housing by providing knowledge and expertise as 
well as interest-free loans to groups from the pri-vate, 
non-profit, and public sector. 
14
Sources: 
l Colliers International 
l Deloitte report – Living in the KSA 
l Jeddah City Profile, Riyadh City Profile – Jones Lang LaSalle 
l http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 
l U.S. Census Bureau, International Database 
l https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html 
l http://www.joneslanglasalle-mena.com/ResearchLevel1/JLLMENA_Affordable%20Hous-ing_ 
2011.pdf 
l http://www.sagia.gov.sa/Documents/Laws/Real_Estate_by_Foreigners.pdf 
l http://www.lw.com/upload/pubcontent/_pdf/pub3507_1.pdf 
l http://www.euromoneyconferences.com/downloads/Saudi10/Colliers_International_MENA_ 
Real_Estate_Overview_Q1_2010.pdf 
l http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 
l http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c25a83c-ae25-11e1-b842-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2LGNRZli5 
l http://www.zawya.com/story/ZAWYA20120206044503/ 
l http://www.zawya.com/story/Saudi_Arabia_needs_SR13trn_housing_investment_by_2020-ZAW-YA20121203031051/ 
l http://www.zawya.com/story/Saudi_developers_focus_on_affordable_housing_sector-ZAW-YA20120419090923/ 
l http://www.ewaan.com.sa/en/pressrelease/media-center/press-releases/saudi-arabian-real-estate-sector- 
is-all-set-for-exponential-growth.html 
l http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/int092111b.htm 
l http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/01/01/185769.html 
l http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Saudi+Arabia 
15

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Ravi real estate report dammam

  • 1. SPECIAL REPORT “HOUSING THE GROWING POPULATION OF THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA” FEBRUARY 2013 Prepared by KCORP for the Jeddah Economic Gateway www.jeg.org.sa www.kcorp.net
  • 2. 30% of Saudi population own homes, global average 70%, UAE home ownership 45% 0.4 Million Shortage of households Demand 2.7 Million; Supply 2.3 Million 1.0 Million homes to be created by 2015, young and fast growing population, rapid urbanization and rising personal income driving the demand Challenges in Provision of Affordable Hous ing • Lack of mortgage system and low financing penetration • Lack of affordable housing • Shortage of arable land for affordable housing construction • Supply – Demand gap • Rising land prices • Cultural and Infrastructural considerations Resolving Housing Woe s • Providing stimulus for affordable housing construction – Ninth 5-year Development Plan aims at investin g SAR 1.4 trillion on physical and social infrastructure between 2010 and 2014 – In 2011, royal decree announced allocation of SAR 250 billion, to build 500,000 housing units – Package of spending measures amounting to SAR 458 billion – Ministry of Housing plans implementation of program to construct 200,000 housing units • Private financing – Mortgage market expected to reach SAR 86.7 billion within 3 years of law being enacted – REDF, which provides low-cost loans to Saudis for home purchases, had its capital boosted by SAR 40 billion, thereby speeding up its loan approval process 2
  • 3. Northern Border Riyadh Jubail Najran Hail Makkah Asir Madinah Tabuk Eastern Province Al Bahah Jizan Qasim Al Qurayyat Jouf Dammam Taif Buraydah Hofuf Arar Yanbu Jeddah Abha Sakaka Key Indicators KSA Population in Million (2010) 27.1 Population between 16 to 64 years of age 66% Area (Sq. Km.) 2,149,690 Nominal GDP 2010 ($ B) 448 Nominal GDP 2015E ($ B) 696 GDP CAGR (2010–15E) 9.2% Per Capita Income (PPP)($) 23,701 Average Inflation (2010–15E) 4.6% 3
  • 4. Fuelling demand for affordable housing The housing market in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) continues to expand on the back of high economic growth, favorable population demographics, and increasing urbanization. Economic growth and growing population will trigger the need for affordable housing Expected GDP Growth at Current Prices in KSA (2010–15E) 448 CAGR: 9.2% 560 582 621 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Population & Age Group Composition (2005–15E)1 Rate of Urbanization1 24.4 CAGR 2.2% CAGR 30.5 2.3% 27.4 63.5% 66.6% 67.7% Rate of Urbanization1 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1. Source: UN population division, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/Panel_profiles.htm 658 696 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $ Billion GDP per Capita Growth 16,267 19,890 20,214 21,101 21,920 22,725 0 2005 2010 2015E Population (M) 0-15 16-64 65 and above 82% 83.8% CAGR: 2.2% 85.6% 87.5% 89.4% 91.4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4
  • 5. Housing Ownership Scenario in KSA KSA has been benchmarked with similar countries in terms of GDP, population and income levels. Based on this comparison, only 30% of the Saudi population own homes, a ratio well below that of most developed and many emerging economies, while the global average stands at 70% Real estate consultancy Colliers International believes the home ownership market is hampered by affordability constraints, ongoing increases in selling prices, and the shortage in supply of new residential units aimed at the lower and middle income segments Only 30% of the Saudi population own homes Home Ownership Rate by Resident Population2 Key Demand Centers for Housing ~66 % of the nation’s residents are clustered in three regions Total Polulation by Provinces (million)3 98% 75% 70% 66% 30% 70% Singapore Brazil Turkey US Saudi Arabia Global Average 6.9 6.8 4.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Jeddah (Mecca) Riyadh Dammam (Eastern) Aseer Madinah Jazan Qasim Tabuk Hail Najran Al Jouf Al Baha Northern Borders 2. Source: Zawya 3. Source: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 5
  • 6. House ownership is still at a very low level in these three cities. Riyadh and Jeddah registered a house-hold ownership of 33% and 34% respectively, for the total number of house-holds in those provinces. Household owner-ship for Dammam was higher at 40%. % of Owned Households of the Total Households in Three Major Cities4 33% 34% 40% Riyadh Supply The total inventory across Riyadh is roughly 900,000 housing units. Data from the Min-istry of Economy and Planning and Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs suggests an-nual residential completions in Riyadh will be around 30,000 units across all sectors (villa, apartment, social, compound etc.). Many of the projects announced in 2008 (such as Al Wasl, Ajmakan and Shams Ar-Riyadh) have still not delivered any units and many are now being restructured. Small builders continue to drive the residen-tial sector. There are a handful of professional developers, but these do not account for de-veloping more than 10% of Riyadh’s annual housing requirement. According to the Ministry of Economy and Planning, Riyadh, Jeddah and Khobar account for approximately 71% of total new housing demand and are expected to suffer from undersupply 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% The Government is taking action to increase the supply of housing for Saudis falling in the lower income bracket. In 2006 the Ministry of Social affairs initiated a housing scheme to build 66,000 units in different regions of the Kingdom. Demand While most professional developers have been providing houses priced at over SAR 1 mil-lion, the demand remains in the SAR 500,000 to SAR 750,000 range. Expatriate residents now make up a substan-tial portion of the buying population in Ri-yadh, representing up to 30% of purchasers at some new developments. Foreign residents are typically allowed to buy for their own occupation in locations approved by the Ministry of Interior. There are some re-strictions on reselling though. 6.8 6.9 4.1 Riyadh province Jeddah (Mecca province) Dammam (Eastern province) Total residing population Total number of households 0% % of owned households 1.2 1.3 0.6 4. Source: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ 6
  • 7. Majority of New Housing Supply is in Luxury Villas Key Residential Projects (Completion Year) Type Housing Units Blncyah (2010) Residential villa 144 Canary Villas (2010) Residential villa 82 Sindad (2010) – 384 Al Bayt 32 (2012) Affordable 400 housing apartment Al Ghorub (2012) Multi residential units. 300 Apartment and villa Shams Al Riyadh (2013) All luxury villas 3,189 Nismat Riyadh (2013) 450 villas, rest affordable housing 4,200 Al Dar (2013) 20% for large multi units for middle 135 income, rest for low cost housing Manzel Qurtaba (2014) – 1,400 Home finance is an important tool for enabling affordability. For new community developments ‘mortgages’ are used to finance up to 40% of sales. According to the notary public office in Riyadh, between 3,000 and 4,000 ‘mortgage’ Jeddah instruments are registered annually. Supply The Jeddah residential market remains dominated by small developers and individual owners, with the larg-er developers delivering just 2,010 additional units to the residential market in 2010. Future housing supply is likely to be reduced as applications for planning permission and building permits are being reviewed with extra scrutiny after the impact of the record rainfall and floods in Jeddah in November 2009. Development of two gated communities targeting the expatriate sector have been announced in the Rawdah and Zahra districts. Majority of New Housing Supply is in Luxury Apartments Key Residential Projects (Completion Year) Type Housing Units Lamaar Towers (2012) Luxury apartments and offices 550 Jeddah Gate (2013) Affordable apartments for low 6,000 and mid income group and offices Afsan Phase 1 (2014) – 2,500 Diamond (2015) – 300 Al Mada Tower (2015) High rise luxury apartments 998 Shams Al Arous (2016) Residential villas, apartment, offices and parks 10,000 Awaan Project (2016) – 2,500 7
  • 8. At King Abdullah Economic City, the Bay La Sun apartments developed by Emaar have opened bookings this year, most units priced at over SAR 1 million/unit. The next residential development within this pro-ject ‘Hawadi’ is much more affordable, offering a range of apartments and duplexes targeted at the middle income bracket, priced between SAR 250,000 and SAR 750,000. Large districts in the south east of Jeddah have been set aside by the municipality for development of low-income housing. These areas will be needed to accommodate the population that will eventually be resettled from the Khozama and Ruwais districts that are to be redeveloped by public-private consortiums. Demand KSA’s Ministry of Commerce estimates that formation of new households will result in demand for around 40,000 new housing units per annum over the next few years. Eastern Province – Dammam Supply The most dominant markets in the Eastern province are Dammam, Dhahran and Al Khobar. The importance of these cities is underscored by the fact that Dammam is the third largest city in Saudi Arabia, and ARAMCO, the state-owned oil company, is based in Dhahran. e quality of residential stock (recently added or under construction) in Dammam and Al Khobar is higher than that of other cities in the country, due to a higher standard of construction, improved finishing, and better periodic maintenance. – Colliers’ Research Key Residential Projects (Completion Year) Type Housing Units Murcia Apartments (2012) – 78 Murjana (2014) Luxury villas 400 Masaken Homes (2014) – 250 Dammam Hills (2015) Villas for mid to high segment 700 Abraj Al Salam (2015) 12 luxury villas, rest are 850 apartments for mid to low segment Khobar Lakes (2016) – 2,100 Dammam, Dhahran and Al Khobar are increasingly being seen as one major unified city that is connected by new residential and commercial developments, rather than three individual cities. Dhahran is also expanding its residential developments near major thoroughfares such as the Prince Mo-hammad Bin Fahd Road in new districts such as Al Qusoor. Unlike Dammam which is dominated by large developers, Dhahran is characterized by the presence of medium-sized developers. Khobar is expanding mostly towards the south near Azizia Beach with medium-sized developers delivering most of the stock Stark contrasts are observed between mid-scale developers operating in Dammam and Khobar and those in Riyadh and Jeddah. Developers in Dammam and Khobar are more active with multiple ongoing projects and have a higher number of units per project. 8
  • 9. Demand There is a preference for quality apartment developments in Dammam and Al Khobar. A fitting example would be the Al Hamraa District (also commonly known as Shobily High Rise) in Al Khobar, which is a prime location for quality apartments. Most home buyers in the district believe in the investment potential of their purchases, particularly with the expected forthcoming completion of the Shobily Masterplan, which has been on hold for several years. Challenges in provision of affordable housing Lack of mortgage system and low financ-ing penetration Inadequate housing finance constitutes a major challenge for the provision of affordable housing in the country. Housing finance includes plot dis-tribution, land servicing, and the provision of loan and mortgage facilities through the banking system: The much-debated Saudi mortgage law has been in the pipeline for almost a decade. Market demand is suppressed by limited mortgage availability. The law aims to provide: • Better lending access to home ownership seekers • Wider funding options for low and middle income groups The law has been recently approved and is await-ing ratification. This law also includes articles on property repossession and asset liquidation in the case of delinquencies. An extremely low percentage of Saudi home purchases are financed by mortgag-es. Experts estimate that Saudi Arabia has only a 2% mortgage penetration in its real estate market. Mortgages are difficult to obtain for those on low monthly salaries due to the limitations of the mort-gage market. Other obstacles include the restriction of mortgage information, a dearth of innovative so-lutions, and an inadequate regulatory framework. Moreover, borrowers have tended to treat extended loans as charity and default on payments is high. Bank financing is still relatively limited and out of reach for a significant proportion of the population. Real estate and construction loans accounted for 7.1 % of total bank credit in 2010 while home loans were only 2.8% of total bank credits. This is very low in comparison to other GCC countries. Structural Factors KSA has Very Low Housing Loan Penetration Compared to Other Middle East Countries Housing loan as % of GDP (2010) 0.5% 1% 2% 3.4% 7.2% 7.9% 12.2% 15% 15.5%15.9% Egypt Algeria KSA Oman Lebanon Jordan Tunisia Kuwait UAE Morocco Access to housing finance has been tightly constrained with very little mort-gage financing available. Some subsidized loans were available through the Real Estate Development Fund (REDF), a state-funded entity. But they had a very long waiting list, and loan amounts were not necessarily sufficient to cover construction costs, says David O. Robinson, IMF mission chief 9
  • 10. The Real Estate Development Fund (REDF), es-tablished in 1974, was set up to meet the needs and aspirations of the Kingdom’s citizens by helping to raise the quality of life in society through the devel-opment of high quality housing. In its first five years, the Fund fulfilled its major objective by solving the housing crisis of the time engendered by the Kingdom’s extraordinary pace of development. The total loans disbursed by the Real Estate Devel-opment Fund (REDF) since its inception until the end of 2006 amounted to SAR 134.1 billion. Due to the absence of a mortgage law, the Real Es-tate Development Fund (REDF) is the main pro-vider of home financing. REDF is not able to meet the demand, which is increasing exponentially; there are more than 650,000 applications pending since the end of 2009, up from 450,000 in 2006, mainly due to obstacles faced by REDF in collec-tion of debts. This leaves an average earning house-hold individual with no option but to live on rent instead of buying his own property. Supply–Demand Gap In 2010, total demand for household units in the KSA market was 2,700,000; but the total sup-ply was 2,300,000, implying a shortage of 400,000 household units in the country. However there is an oversupply of luxury houses and villas. While most professional developers have been providing houses priced at over SAR 1 million, the demand remains in the SAR 500,000 to SAR 750,000 range. According to the Government’s 9th 5-Year Development Plan, 1.2 million units are needed over the next five years, (250,000 units every year). NCB Capital estimates less aggressive figures, predicting that the country will need an additional 973,000 units over 2010–15 and a total of 2.1 mil-lion units over the coming decade (215,000 units per year). The major driver of housing demand is the young and fast growing population base, with an estimated 1,000,000 new households expected to be created across KSA by 2015, which will further exacerbate the current shortage. Additional Demand of 1 Million Homes by 2015 Housing market size vs. Total population6 3,991 4,208 4,643 5,718 7,080 22,674 23,981 27,137 31,874 37,551 2004 2007 2010 2015 2020 Total Housing Stock Total Population 6. Source: CDSI, NCB Estimates 10
  • 11. Incremental Housing Demand vs. Investment Required6 Units SAR Millions 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Exorbitantly high prices for housing Artificially high-priced land plots are increasingly sought as a long-term investment option by high net worth Saudis, making these plots inaccessible to Saudi citizens and home developers. Though there is a shortage of affordable housing, there is an over-supply of high end developments. Most developers seek profitable luxurious projects to serve the high income class. Lack of available land for affordable housing construction Arable land is scarce due to drought, desertification and land degradation due to which agricultural pro-ductivity and rural subsistence are threatened. Saudi Arabia occupies four-fifths of the Arabian Penin-sula but the majority of its land is desert. According to the World Bank (2009), the percentage of land that is arable in Saudi Arabia is only 1.5 percent of the total land area. In such conditions, a land owner 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 prefers to hold on to his land instead of turning it into an af-fordable housing develop-m e n t . Moreo-ver, the a b s e n c e of fees on land owners motivates owners to hold on more to those assets. However, it is expected that regulations on imposing fees on empty plots of land are expected to take effect soon. Many realtors in the Kingdom believe that such regulations would help reduce the prices of real estate units. - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual New Demand - Estimated Annual Investment 6. Source: CDSI, NCB Estimates Because of the strength in the market for serviced plots, land development (rather than full residential development) became a popular phenomenon in recent years. is trend is, however, expected to be curbed by the efforts of the Riyadh Municipality and ArRiyadh Development Authority to control land prices by increasing the supply of land in the city – Colliers Research 11
  • 12. Rising land prices While government stimulus has helped launch the sector into gear, rising land prices have slowed down the momentum of building affordable housing units. In fact, land prices are rising at a much higher rate than property prices. Prices of developable land have been increasing at roughly 15% per annum, compared to a 5–6% increase in prices for housing units, says John Harris of Jones Lang LaSalle Cultural and infrastructural considerations Saudi nationals prefer to live in houses rather than apartments. Social requirements such as privacy, social cohesion of family members within the same housing unit, and independence from residential density are main factors considered for affordable housing. Location and public transport systems represent another challenge for affordable housing. Most projects are usually built outside the boundaries of the city where land is cheaper and these places lack an adequate public urban transportation system. The absence of transport disadvantages residents needing to travel to work or school as not everyone has access to private cars. Initiatives to mitigate housing woes of population Government Stimulus Measures Creation of new growth centers Government is focusing on creating new growth centers, away from Riyadh, Mecca and Dammam. The Economic Cities Authority, a government body, plans to develop Rabigh, Jizan, Madinah and Hail as the new growth centers or emerging cit-ies of KSA. Rabigh and Jizan are being developed with infrastructure projects worth USD 27 billion, Madinah and Hail are USD 7 billion and 8 billion respectively. The KSA Government also supported Emaar Economic City, the developer of the King Abdullah Economic City in Rabigh, with an invest-ment of USD 1.3 billion in 2011. By 2020 these 4 cities are forecasted to contribute USD 150 billion to GDP and house about 4.5 million people. KSA’s growing economy, on the back of high oil prices, has led to heavy investment in infrastruc-ture including housing over the period 2005–2010. The 9th Development Plan aims at investing SAR 1.4 trillion on physical and social infrastructure be-tween 2010 and 2014. In 2011, a royal decree was announced to allocate SAR 250 billion to build 500,000 housing units under the newly estab-lished Minis-try of Hous-ing. This will in Rabigh has currently created 12,000 jobs – Fahd al Rasheed, Chief executive, King Abdullah Economic City a c c e l e r a t e the supply of housing units, especially to the low and middle in-come groups King Abdullah Economic City Saudi authorities have unveiled a package of spend-ing measures amounting to SAR 458 billion that is set to have a significant impact on economic perfor-mance this year and in the future. The extra-budget-ary spending, announced by King Abdullah in Feb-ruary and March, is primarily aimed at improving living conditions, particularly for those in the lower income category. 12
  • 13. Construction of new Housing The biggest single element of the spending is SAR 250 billion to fund the construction of 500,000 new housing units over an unspecified time period. In order to construct this number of units in a reason-able timeframe, the authorities will need to use pri-vate sector developers. In terms of providing affordable financing, REDF will have a key role to play. REDF, which provides low cost loans to Saudis for home purchases, had its capital boosted by SAR 40 billion and has been instructed to speed up its loan approval process Arab News reported that the Ministry of Housing plans to implement a program that will result in the construction of 200,000 housing units. The ministry said that 17,600 units are currently being imple-mented. Private financing In view of the cramped demand for housing and the scale of the Government’s plans, private financing will also be necessary in addition to REDF’s recapi-talization. The mortgage market is expected to reach SAR 86.7 billion within the next three years of the mortgage law being enacted. Alternative Solutions Mortgages customized for low income nationals The aim is to provide mortgages to modest income nationals who are currently locked out of the mort-gage market due to low incomes and perceived sus-tainability of those incomes. This endeavor would be structured as a hybrid between traditional charity and a marketplace mortgage company that would generally not consider lower income nationals as a target market or would charge very high interest to justify this perceived higher risk exposure. Access the pool of high net worth Saudis Route it through the mortgage company to provide lower income nationals with long-term mortgages. Solar power mud houses This concept focuses on changing the types of houses offered in the market by making home development more economically scalable. The aim is to build tra-ditional mud houses from cost-effective materials using natural resources and modern technology for energy. These houses can be handmade and work-shops can be provided. For over a thousand years in the Arabian Peninsula, Arabs have built houses out of a mixture of natural resources with mud being used instead of cement. Reducing the block size Given the constraints of high land values, a strategy to reduce the area of individual villa blocks presents a potential tool to increase the supply of affordable housing. Affordable housing models by govern-ments in other countries Governments in other countries facing the issue of affordable housing for a growing population have initiated a range of workable models. In Morocco, government and private developers are working to-gether to address the need for affordable housing. To reduce housing shortages, the Moroccan Gov-ernment gave away 3,800 hectares of land at re-duced prices to developers for constructing 200,000 housing units. To qualify for the subsidized land, developers were asked to agree to sell flats at below 140,000 Moroccan dirhams on one third of the al-located land, at 200,000 dirham or below, on the other third, and they could build properties of their choice on the final third. 13
  • 14. The Turkish Government has utilized a form of public private partnership to deliver mass housing projects through TOKI (Housing Development Administration of Turkey). TOKI issues tenders for disposal of Government-owned land to private developers. Developers are asked to submit plans as to how many housing units they are willing to build on the amount of land awarded and out of that how much land are they willing to return to TOKI so that it can be used for affordable hous-ing by Government for low income groups. This ap-proach avoids purchasing of the land by the devel-oper, thereby improving the cash flow situation. In UAE, reduction in block size for villa plots is a new emerging solution by private developers. Hous-ing preference of high net worth Emirati families can be satisfied by delivering attractive, livable villas in a standard villa block of 600 to 650 square meters. This represents a saving of around 40% in land area, compared to the current standard of villa block size of 1050 square meters A Canadian government body, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) provides a range of mortgage loan insurance products for owned and rented housing. CMHC provides seed funding and proposal development funding to pri-vate developers, in order to help with some of the upfront expenses for developing a housing project. CMHC facilitates the production of new affordable housing by providing knowledge and expertise as well as interest-free loans to groups from the pri-vate, non-profit, and public sector. 14
  • 15. Sources: l Colliers International l Deloitte report – Living in the KSA l Jeddah City Profile, Riyadh City Profile – Jones Lang LaSalle l http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ l U.S. Census Bureau, International Database l https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html l http://www.joneslanglasalle-mena.com/ResearchLevel1/JLLMENA_Affordable%20Hous-ing_ 2011.pdf l http://www.sagia.gov.sa/Documents/Laws/Real_Estate_by_Foreigners.pdf l http://www.lw.com/upload/pubcontent/_pdf/pub3507_1.pdf l http://www.euromoneyconferences.com/downloads/Saudi10/Colliers_International_MENA_ Real_Estate_Overview_Q1_2010.pdf l http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ l http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c25a83c-ae25-11e1-b842-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2LGNRZli5 l http://www.zawya.com/story/ZAWYA20120206044503/ l http://www.zawya.com/story/Saudi_Arabia_needs_SR13trn_housing_investment_by_2020-ZAW-YA20121203031051/ l http://www.zawya.com/story/Saudi_developers_focus_on_affordable_housing_sector-ZAW-YA20120419090923/ l http://www.ewaan.com.sa/en/pressrelease/media-center/press-releases/saudi-arabian-real-estate-sector- is-all-set-for-exponential-growth.html l http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/int092111b.htm l http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/01/01/185769.html l http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Saudi+Arabia 15