Rajeev andharia pmi conference 2010 v1.0
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1) Project managers face challenges in providing accurate cost and schedule estimates to stakeholders due to uncertainties. Applied statistics techniques can improve predictability in project performance. 2) Key techniques discussed are sensitivity analysis and criticality index to identify critical activities, and Monte Carlo analysis to model schedule uncertainty using probability distributions. 3) Monte Carlo analysis involves generating random inputs, running simulations of a parametric model, and analyzing results using statistics to obtain forecasts. These techniques provide a more informed basis for project estimates than single-point estimates.
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Trn 08
The document discusses how emerging economies, the financial crisis, and Generation Y are changing the face of project management. It provides tips on how project managers can adapt to these changes, such as gaining knowledge of local business models in emerging economies and using agile approaches. It also presents a case study of how a project manager dealt with an existing project being opened to bidding due to the financial crisis. The document advocates that project managers embrace continuous improvement, generate peer pressure for accountability, and adopt an innovation framework to adapt to the changing project management landscape.
Trn 07
This document discusses bridging the gap between traditional project management and the expectations of the "Facebook generation". It proposes adapting a new management style focused on transparency, value creation, and flattening hierarchies. Specifically:
1) The "Mirror-Mirror" concept helps managers understand their starting point and focus areas for improvement to achieve goals.
2) Emphasis is placed on winning stakeholder confidence through transparency.
3) Managers think long-term and include more people in planning for transparency.
4) Multiple solutions are explored during execution to maximize value for all parties.
Trn 06
The document discusses the challenges of managing multi-country projects and proposes an approach using abstract and agile scheduling. It highlights difficulties like budget forecasting, resource management, and tracking across locations. The approach uses an abstract schedule for high-level planning and portfolio management, with agile detailed schedules managed quarterly by teams. Collaboration is enabled through a web tool for tasks, time tracking, documents and issues. This framework aims to provide simplicity and visibility while allowing flexibility.
Trn 05
This document discusses project dynamics, an emerging approach to understanding the complex dynamics of projects over time. It discusses how project dynamics can be applied to (1) understand features of projects like activities, phases and interdependencies, (2) model rework cycles and their compounding effects, and (3) evaluate the intended and unintended consequences of project control strategies. The document argues that applying a project dynamics approach can provide new insights to improve project management practices.
Trn 04
The document discusses delegating project management tasks from project managers to team members in order to improve organizational efficiency. Currently, project managers typically handle all project management tasks themselves. This leads to higher costs, lower team motivation, and missed opportunities. The document proposes a solution where project managers delegate appropriate project management tasks to team members. This would reduce costs by utilizing resources more efficiently. It would also increase team member motivation and involvement. The document addresses some concerns about this approach and provides recommendations for implementation at different organizational levels.
Trn 03
The document discusses sustainability in project management. It explores how sustainability relates to projects and project management. Key points include:
1) Sustainability involves balancing economic, social, and environmental factors over both the short and long term.
2) Project managers may have responsibility for sustainability aspects of projects and their outcomes.
3) Considering sustainability requires looking at a project's full lifecycle as well as the lifecycles of its outcomes and any associated products or assets.
Trn 02
The document discusses strategies for companies to achieve growth with existing resources through effective portfolio management. It finds that high growth companies expand sales channels while slower companies focus on cost reduction. Implementing portfolio management allows selecting the right projects and optimizing resource allocation. Benefits include increased effectiveness, reduced costs, and higher profits without additional investments. The key is to identify constraints, match capacity and pipeline, and select platforms that provide competitive advantage and accelerate innovation.
Trn 01
The document discusses the role of a Strategic Program Management Office (PMO) in managing organizational transformation. It describes what a Strategic PMO is and the framework it uses, including establishing a vision, mission, and work streams. It then discusses the structure of a Strategic PMO and its lifecycle. Finally, it provides examples of Strategic PMOs that were implemented to manage a merger integration, transition to a shared global delivery model, and drive innovation through centers of excellence.
Trn 12
This presentation discusses how project managers can incorporate social media tools like Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and blogs into project communication and management. It explores how tools like these have changed communication from restricted exchanges to more open and collaborative interactions. The presentation also addresses challenges with social media like distraction and loss of productivity, and suggests ways for project managers to develop social media policies and guidelines for their teams.
Sps 01
This document discusses a business model for providing renewable energy to rural communities through partnerships between various stakeholders. The key stakeholders identified are village communities, NGOs, microfinance institutions, original equipment manufacturers, and government/state bodies. The model aims to improve rural livelihoods and alleviate poverty by providing energy access and creating new income opportunities through microloans to fund the installation of renewable energy technologies. Challenges and opportunities of this model are also analyzed.
Sft 03
This document provides an overview of how tools from psychology can be applied to improve project management. It discusses the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality assessment and describes two personality types: ENFP and ISTJ. It also summarizes Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) and how modifying beliefs can impact consequences. The document suggests project managers would benefit from understanding these psychological tools to improve team dynamics and expectations management.
Sft 02
The document presents the Influential and Inspirational Powers (IIP) model, a new self-evaluation tool for project managers. The IIP model maps levels of influence and inspiration on a grid with four quadrants based on two situations: 1) how team members are influenced and inspired by the project manager, and 2) how the project manager is influenced and inspired by the team. The tool is meant to help project managers identify strengths, weaknesses, and ways to improve team motivation, productivity, and innovation. A survey of project stakeholders provided initial support for the model.
Sft 01
This document discusses strategies for managing everyday conflicts at work. It suggests that minor unresolved conflicts can lead to major losses in productivity, satisfaction and focus within teams. Conflict is inevitable in team environments but can be minimized through awareness and effective conflict resolution strategies. The document explores how individual personality traits and interpersonal skills influence conflicts, and provides models for resolving conflicts at different levels from individual to team to organizational.
Sft 04
This technical paper explores the importance of soft skills like leadership for project managers. It discusses how leadership is crucial for project success as it helps integrate team members and motivate them. The paper outlines different leadership styles and techniques for developing leadership skills, including coaching and mentoring. Effective coaching and mentoring through situational leadership can help individuals and teams achieve their goals while also benefiting the overall organization.
Rsc 06
The document discusses the need to tap into the power of informal project management techniques. It proposes a methodology to identify exemplary historical informal projects in India and analyze them to develop a database of proven informal techniques. This would help bridge gaps in formal project management education. A survey found most essential project management skills can be developed through both informal and formal means.
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Rajeev andharia pmi conference 2010 v1.0
- 1. Predictability in Project Performance using Applied Statistics Rajeev AndhariaPMP, CISA, CISSP, ITILv3 Expert Co-Author “Six Sigma for IT Management” rajeev@myBTP.in
- 2. Agenda The PM Challenge Key Concepts Some Key Techniques Sensitivity Analysis & Criticality Index Monte Carlo Some thoughts Approximate: 30 minutes
- 3. The Project Management Challenge… Boss:I need the Cost number PM:I need details Boss:give me a number now. I wont hold you to it. PM:U will put the number in ur Budget. U will forget we had this conversation & beat me when the project goes “overbudget” Boss: Give me a number or I will beat you right now PM: Ok, it will cost $ 1 million Boss: That’s too high PM: If you already know the number why are you asking me? Boss: you should feel involved & accountable PM: I rather be a developer There are no facts about the future—everything that hasn’t happened is only an ESTIMATE. Boss PM
- 4. The Choice… Would you go to an orthopaedist who did not use X-rays? J.M. Furbringer
- 5. Key Concepts Predictability: Performance: Statistics: degree to which a correct forecast can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively Accomplishment measured against preset standards of accuracy, completeness, cost, and speed. set of tools for collecting, organizing, presenting and analyzing numerical facts or observations. provides tools for forecasting using data & models.
- 6. Key Concepts Project Performance Management Why Statistics & Project Management? increasing the “probability of success” of achieving the unique outcome within the given constraints (i.e. scope, time, cost, quality, risk & resource) improving predictability in project performance using proven practices in “applied statistics” & project management
- 7. Key Technique-1: Activity Criticality Index Given the activity duration estimates, the project manager wants to identify the critical activities. Popularly used technique: CPM Alternate technique: Criticality Index based on Sensitivity Analysis
- 9. Sensitivity analysis is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes. The Criticality Index expresses how often a particular task was on the Critical Path during the analysis.
- 11. Key Technique-2: Monte Carlo Analysis Question: What is the outcome of rolling 2 Dice?
- 12. Question: What is the Project Completion Date?
- 13. Tell me something more on Monte Carlo Analysis? Step 1: Create a parametric model, y = f(x1, x2, ..., xq). Step 2: Generate a set of random inputs, xi1, xi2, ..., xiq. Step 3: Evaluate the model and store the results as yi. Step 4: Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n. Step 5: Analyze the results using histograms, summary statistics, confidence intervals, etc.
- 14. Parting thoughts… Conclusions are judged to be sturdy only if the neighborhood of assumptions is wide enough to be credible and the corresponding interval of inferences is narrow enough to be useful.” Edward E. Leamer (econometrician)
- 15. Parting thoughts… Stakeholder Management can be significantly improved by increased Predictability in Project Performance. Earned Value Analysis Decision Theory Expected Value Sensitivity Analysis Probability Distributions Quality Tools
- 16. Thank You for Listening rajeev@myBTP.in