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Targeted Crowdsourcing
with a Billion (Potential) Users
Panos Ipeirotis, Stern School of Business, New York University
Evgeniy Gabrilovich, Google
Work done while on sabbatical at Google
The sabbatical mission…
“We have a billion users…
leverage their knowledge …”
Knowledge Graph: Things not Strings
Knowledge Graph: Things not Strings
Still incomplete…
• “Date of birth of Bayes” (…uncertain…)
• “Symptom of strep throat”
• “Side effects of treximet”
• “Who is Cristiano Ronaldo dating”
• “When is Jay Z playing in New York”
• “What is the customer service number for Google”
• …
The sabbatical mission…
“Let’s create a new crowdsourcing system…”
“We have a billion users…
leverage their knowledge …”
Ideally…
But often…
The common solution…
Volunteers vs. hired workers
• Hired workers provide predictability
• …but have a monetary cost
• …are motivated by money (spam, misrepresent qualifications…)
• …extrinsic rewards crowd-out intrinsic motivation
• …do not always have the knowledge
• Volunteers cost less (…)
• …but difficult to predict success
Key Challenge
“Crowdsource in a predictable manner,
with knowledgeable users,
without introducing monetary rewards”
Quizz
Calibration vs. Collection
• Calibration questions (known answer):
Evaluating user competence on topic at hand
• Collection questions (unknown answer):
Asking questions for things we do not know
• Trust more answers coming from competent users
Tradeoff
Learn more about user quality vs. getting answers
(technical solution: use a Markov Decision Process)
Model: Markov Decision Process
a correct
b incorrect
c collection
V = c*IG[a,b]
[a+1,b,c]
V = c*IG[a+1,b] [a,b+1,c]
V = c*IG[a,b+1]
[a,b,c+1]
V = (c+1)*IG[a,b]
Exploit
Explore
User drops
out
User
continues
User correct User
incorrect
Challenges
• Why would anyone come and play this game?
• Why would knowledgeable users come?
• Wouldn’t it be simpler to just pay?
Attracting Visitors: Ad Campaigns
Running Ad Campaigns: Objectives
• We want to attract good users, not just clicks
• We do not want to think hard about keyword
selection, appropriate ad text, etc.
• We want automation across thousands of topics
(from treatment side effects to celebrity dating)
Solution: Treat Quizz as eCommerce Site
Solution: Treat Quizz as eCommerce Site
Feedback:
Value of click
User Value: Information Gain
• Value of user: total information contributed
• Information gain is additive: #questions x infogain
• Information gain for question with n choices, user quality q
• Random user quality: q=1/n  IG(q,n) = 0
• Perfect user quality: q=1  IG(q,n) = log(n)
• Using a Bayesian version to accommodate for uncertainty about q
How to measure quality?
• Naïve (and unstable) approach: q = correct/total
• Bayesian approach: q is latent, with uniform prior
• Then q follows Beta(a,b) distr (a: correct, b:incorrect)
Expected Information Gain
Effect of Ad Targeting
(Perhaps it is just more users?)
• Control: Ad campaign with no feedback, all keywords across quizzes [optimizes for clicks]
• Treatment: Ad campaign with feedback enabled [optimizes for conversions]
• Clicks/visitors: Same
• Conversion rate: 34% vs 13% (~3x more users participated)
• Number of answers: 2866 vs 279 (~10x more answers submitted)
• Total Information Gain: 7560 bits vs 610 bits (~11.5x more bits)
Effect of Optimizing for Conversion Value
• Control: Feedback on “conversion event” but no value
• Treatment: Feedback provides information gain per click
• Clicks/visitors: Same
• Conversion rate: 39% vs 30% (~30% more users participated)
• Number of answers: 1683 vs 1183 (~42% more answers submitted)
• Total Information Gain: 4690 bits vs 2870 bits (~63% more bits)
Example of Targeting: Medical Quizzes
• Our initial goal was to use medical topics as a
evidence that some topics are not crowdsourcable
• Our hypothesis failed: They were the best
performing quizzes…
• Users coming from sites such as Mayo Clinic,
WebMD, … (i.e., “pronsumers”, not professionals)
Participation is important!
Really useful users
• Immediate feedback helps most
– Knowing the correct answer 10x more important than knowing
whether given answer was correct
– Conjecture: Users also want to learn
Treatment Effect
Show if user answer correct +2.4%
Show the correct answer +20.4%
Score: % of correct answers +2.3%
Score: # of correct answers -2.2%
Score: Information gain +4.0%
Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8%
Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8%
Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
• Showing score is moderately helpful
– Be careful what you incentivize though 
– “Total Correct” incentivizes quantity, not quality
Treatment Effect
Show if user answer correct +2.4%
Show the correct answer +20.4%
Score: % of correct answers +2.3%
Score: # of correct answers -2.2%
Score: Information gain +4.0%
Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8%
Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8%
Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
• Competitiveness (how other users performed)
helps significantly
Treatment Effect
Show if user answer correct +2.4%
Show the correct answer +20.4%
Score: % of correct answers +2.3%
Score: # of correct answers -2.2%
Score: Information gain +4.0%
Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8%
Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8%
Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
• Leaderboards are tricky!
– Initially, strong positive effect
– Over time, effect became strongly negative
– All-time leaderboards considered harmful
Treatment Effect
Show if user answer correct +2.4%
Show the correct answer +20.4%
Score: % of correct answers +2.3%
Score: # of correct answers -2.2%
Score: Information gain +4.0%
Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8%
Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8%
Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
Cost/Benefit Analysis
Self-selection and participation
• Low performing users naturally drop out
• With paid users, monetary incentives keep them
Submitted answers
%correct
Comparison with paid crowdsourcing
• Best paid user
– 68% quality, 40 answers (~1.5 minutes per question)
– Quality-equivalency: 13 answers @ 99% accuracy, 23 answers @ 90% accuracy
– 5 cents/question, or $3/hr to match advertising cost of unpaid users
• Knowledgeable users are much faster and more efficient
Submitted answers
%correct
Citizen Science Applications
• Google gives $10K/month to nonprofits in ad budget
• Climate CoLab experiment running
– Doubled traffic with only $20/day
– Targets political activist groups (not only climate)
• Additional experiments: Crowdcrafting, ebird, Weendy
Conclusions
• New way to run crowdsourcing, targeting with ads
• Engages unpaid users, avoids problems with extrinsic rewards
• Provides access to expert users, not available labor platforms
• Experts not always professionals (e.g., Mayo Clinic users)
• Nonprofits can use Google Ad Grants to attract (for free)
participants to citizen science projects

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Quizz: Targeted Crowdsourcing with a Billion (Potential) Users

  • 1. Targeted Crowdsourcing with a Billion (Potential) Users Panos Ipeirotis, Stern School of Business, New York University Evgeniy Gabrilovich, Google Work done while on sabbatical at Google
  • 2. The sabbatical mission… “We have a billion users… leverage their knowledge …”
  • 5. Still incomplete… • “Date of birth of Bayes” (…uncertain…) • “Symptom of strep throat” • “Side effects of treximet” • “Who is Cristiano Ronaldo dating” • “When is Jay Z playing in New York” • “What is the customer service number for Google” • …
  • 6. The sabbatical mission… “Let’s create a new crowdsourcing system…” “We have a billion users… leverage their knowledge …”
  • 10. Volunteers vs. hired workers • Hired workers provide predictability • …but have a monetary cost • …are motivated by money (spam, misrepresent qualifications…) • …extrinsic rewards crowd-out intrinsic motivation • …do not always have the knowledge • Volunteers cost less (…) • …but difficult to predict success
  • 11. Key Challenge “Crowdsource in a predictable manner, with knowledgeable users, without introducing monetary rewards”
  • 12. Quizz
  • 13. Calibration vs. Collection • Calibration questions (known answer): Evaluating user competence on topic at hand • Collection questions (unknown answer): Asking questions for things we do not know • Trust more answers coming from competent users Tradeoff Learn more about user quality vs. getting answers (technical solution: use a Markov Decision Process)
  • 14. Model: Markov Decision Process a correct b incorrect c collection V = c*IG[a,b] [a+1,b,c] V = c*IG[a+1,b] [a,b+1,c] V = c*IG[a,b+1] [a,b,c+1] V = (c+1)*IG[a,b] Exploit Explore User drops out User continues User correct User incorrect
  • 15. Challenges • Why would anyone come and play this game? • Why would knowledgeable users come? • Wouldn’t it be simpler to just pay?
  • 17. Running Ad Campaigns: Objectives • We want to attract good users, not just clicks • We do not want to think hard about keyword selection, appropriate ad text, etc. • We want automation across thousands of topics (from treatment side effects to celebrity dating)
  • 18. Solution: Treat Quizz as eCommerce Site
  • 19. Solution: Treat Quizz as eCommerce Site Feedback: Value of click
  • 20. User Value: Information Gain • Value of user: total information contributed • Information gain is additive: #questions x infogain • Information gain for question with n choices, user quality q • Random user quality: q=1/n  IG(q,n) = 0 • Perfect user quality: q=1  IG(q,n) = log(n) • Using a Bayesian version to accommodate for uncertainty about q
  • 21. How to measure quality? • Naïve (and unstable) approach: q = correct/total • Bayesian approach: q is latent, with uniform prior • Then q follows Beta(a,b) distr (a: correct, b:incorrect)
  • 23. Effect of Ad Targeting (Perhaps it is just more users?) • Control: Ad campaign with no feedback, all keywords across quizzes [optimizes for clicks] • Treatment: Ad campaign with feedback enabled [optimizes for conversions] • Clicks/visitors: Same • Conversion rate: 34% vs 13% (~3x more users participated) • Number of answers: 2866 vs 279 (~10x more answers submitted) • Total Information Gain: 7560 bits vs 610 bits (~11.5x more bits)
  • 24. Effect of Optimizing for Conversion Value • Control: Feedback on “conversion event” but no value • Treatment: Feedback provides information gain per click • Clicks/visitors: Same • Conversion rate: 39% vs 30% (~30% more users participated) • Number of answers: 1683 vs 1183 (~42% more answers submitted) • Total Information Gain: 4690 bits vs 2870 bits (~63% more bits)
  • 25. Example of Targeting: Medical Quizzes • Our initial goal was to use medical topics as a evidence that some topics are not crowdsourcable • Our hypothesis failed: They were the best performing quizzes… • Users coming from sites such as Mayo Clinic, WebMD, … (i.e., “pronsumers”, not professionals)
  • 27. • Immediate feedback helps most – Knowing the correct answer 10x more important than knowing whether given answer was correct – Conjecture: Users also want to learn Treatment Effect Show if user answer correct +2.4% Show the correct answer +20.4% Score: % of correct answers +2.3% Score: # of correct answers -2.2% Score: Information gain +4.0% Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8% Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8% Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
  • 28. • Showing score is moderately helpful – Be careful what you incentivize though  – “Total Correct” incentivizes quantity, not quality Treatment Effect Show if user answer correct +2.4% Show the correct answer +20.4% Score: % of correct answers +2.3% Score: # of correct answers -2.2% Score: Information gain +4.0% Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8% Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8% Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
  • 29. • Competitiveness (how other users performed) helps significantly Treatment Effect Show if user answer correct +2.4% Show the correct answer +20.4% Score: % of correct answers +2.3% Score: # of correct answers -2.2% Score: Information gain +4.0% Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8% Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8% Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
  • 30. • Leaderboards are tricky! – Initially, strong positive effect – Over time, effect became strongly negative – All-time leaderboards considered harmful Treatment Effect Show if user answer correct +2.4% Show the correct answer +20.4% Score: % of correct answers +2.3% Score: # of correct answers -2.2% Score: Information gain +4.0% Show statistics for performance of other users +9.8% Leaderboard based on percent correct -4.8% Leaderboard based on total correct answers -1.5%
  • 32. Self-selection and participation • Low performing users naturally drop out • With paid users, monetary incentives keep them Submitted answers %correct
  • 33. Comparison with paid crowdsourcing • Best paid user – 68% quality, 40 answers (~1.5 minutes per question) – Quality-equivalency: 13 answers @ 99% accuracy, 23 answers @ 90% accuracy – 5 cents/question, or $3/hr to match advertising cost of unpaid users • Knowledgeable users are much faster and more efficient Submitted answers %correct
  • 34. Citizen Science Applications • Google gives $10K/month to nonprofits in ad budget • Climate CoLab experiment running – Doubled traffic with only $20/day – Targets political activist groups (not only climate) • Additional experiments: Crowdcrafting, ebird, Weendy
  • 35. Conclusions • New way to run crowdsourcing, targeting with ads • Engages unpaid users, avoids problems with extrinsic rewards • Provides access to expert users, not available labor platforms • Experts not always professionals (e.g., Mayo Clinic users) • Nonprofits can use Google Ad Grants to attract (for free) participants to citizen science projects