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Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options
Systematic Evaluation of Popular Risk Control Techniques
www.quantconnect.com
Jared Broad
Founder & CEO
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 2
Outline
▪ Introduction to QuantConnect
▪ Algorithm Development Process
▪ Creating Our Investigation Thesis
▪ Developing a Control
▪ Testing and Researching
▪ Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop
▪ Experiment 2: Adding Option Hedge
▪ Experiment 3: Covered Calls
▪ Summary
What is QuantConnect?
We empower investors with powerful
investment tools and connect the brightest
minds from around the world with capital they need.
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 3
What is QuantConnect?
QuantConnect is a community of 44,000 Engineers, Data Scientists, Programmers
From 6,100 Cities and 173 Countries
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 4
Building Thousands of Algorithms Every Day
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 5
We’ve built a web algorithm lab where thousands of
people test their ideas on financial data we provide; for free.
LEAN ALGO
TECHNOLOGY
FINANCIAL
DATA
POWER
COMPUTING
How do we do it?
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 6
EQUITIES
OPTIONS
FUTURES
FOREX
CRYPTO
Development Process
Live Trade
Deploy the strategy live in
a real money account.
Research
Ideas
Backtest
Algorithms
Paper
Trade
Live
Trading
Research
Quickly test ideas in a
command line environment.
Backtest
Codify and run full simulation
in the Algorithm Lab.
Paper Trade
Run idea on live market data.
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 7
Creating Our Investment Hypothesis
First we define our null hypothesis,
something we setout to disprove:
The market is completely efficient and
attempts at risk control are futile.
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 8
We are testing this theory by evaluating popular risk control methods;
(e.g. Trailing Stops and Option Hedging), and comparing the performance.
Setting the Benchmark, Control
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 9
• Define a baseline performance for judging algorithm studies.
• Baseline should ideally be as close as possible to study. This reduces
other variables and makes it easier to identify potential causes.
Control: Long Only MACD
Long-Flat MACD; nothing else.
Exp 1: Long Only MACD
+ Trailing Stop.
Exp 2: Long Only MACD
+ Put Option Hedge.
Exploratory Research
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 10
Quantbook Research
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 11
Control Implementation
SPY Backtest
IBM Backtest
Trailing Stop Hypothesis
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 12
Place Stop
Move Up
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 13
Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop
SPY Backtest
IBM Backtest
Option Hedge Hypothesis
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 14
Buy Put
Insure Dip
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 15
Experiment 2: Buying Put Hedge
SPY Backtest
IBM Backtest
Covered Call, Selling Options Hypothesis
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 16
Buy Stock
Sell Call
Covered call works best on
sideways or downward markets.
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 17
Experiment 3: Selling Covered Call
Not strictly “risk control”
SPY Backtest
IBM Backtest
Key Statistics
IBM Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha
Control Study 0.844 2.7% 0.015
Trailing Stop 0.615 7% 0.005
Option Hedging 1.194 3.8% 0.032
Covered Calls 1.891 3.3% 0.057
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 18
Key statistics from testing our experimental strategy against a
downward/sideways trending asset; IBM.
Key Statistics
SPY Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha
Control Study 0.944 3.6% 0.007
Trailing Stop 1.396 4.1% 0.015
Option Hedging 1.038 3.6% 0.004
Covered Calls 2.13 3.0% 0.042
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 19
Key statistics summary from re-testing the control and experimental strategies
against a trending asset; the SPY ETF.
www.quantconnect.com
Thank you.
Appendix
Our Research Environment
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 22
Coding the Idea, The Algorithm Lab
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 23
Going Live, Deploying to Live Trading
November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 24

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QuantConnect - Using Options for Risk Control with Python

  • 1. Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Systematic Evaluation of Popular Risk Control Techniques www.quantconnect.com Jared Broad Founder & CEO
  • 2. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 2 Outline ▪ Introduction to QuantConnect ▪ Algorithm Development Process ▪ Creating Our Investigation Thesis ▪ Developing a Control ▪ Testing and Researching ▪ Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop ▪ Experiment 2: Adding Option Hedge ▪ Experiment 3: Covered Calls ▪ Summary
  • 3. What is QuantConnect? We empower investors with powerful investment tools and connect the brightest minds from around the world with capital they need. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 3
  • 4. What is QuantConnect? QuantConnect is a community of 44,000 Engineers, Data Scientists, Programmers From 6,100 Cities and 173 Countries November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 4
  • 5. Building Thousands of Algorithms Every Day November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 5
  • 6. We’ve built a web algorithm lab where thousands of people test their ideas on financial data we provide; for free. LEAN ALGO TECHNOLOGY FINANCIAL DATA POWER COMPUTING How do we do it? November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 6 EQUITIES OPTIONS FUTURES FOREX CRYPTO
  • 7. Development Process Live Trade Deploy the strategy live in a real money account. Research Ideas Backtest Algorithms Paper Trade Live Trading Research Quickly test ideas in a command line environment. Backtest Codify and run full simulation in the Algorithm Lab. Paper Trade Run idea on live market data. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 7
  • 8. Creating Our Investment Hypothesis First we define our null hypothesis, something we setout to disprove: The market is completely efficient and attempts at risk control are futile. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 8 We are testing this theory by evaluating popular risk control methods; (e.g. Trailing Stops and Option Hedging), and comparing the performance.
  • 9. Setting the Benchmark, Control November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 9 • Define a baseline performance for judging algorithm studies. • Baseline should ideally be as close as possible to study. This reduces other variables and makes it easier to identify potential causes. Control: Long Only MACD Long-Flat MACD; nothing else. Exp 1: Long Only MACD + Trailing Stop. Exp 2: Long Only MACD + Put Option Hedge.
  • 10. Exploratory Research November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 10 Quantbook Research
  • 11. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 11 Control Implementation SPY Backtest IBM Backtest
  • 12. Trailing Stop Hypothesis November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 12 Place Stop Move Up
  • 13. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 13 Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop SPY Backtest IBM Backtest
  • 14. Option Hedge Hypothesis November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 14 Buy Put Insure Dip
  • 15. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 15 Experiment 2: Buying Put Hedge SPY Backtest IBM Backtest
  • 16. Covered Call, Selling Options Hypothesis November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 16 Buy Stock Sell Call Covered call works best on sideways or downward markets.
  • 17. November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 17 Experiment 3: Selling Covered Call Not strictly “risk control” SPY Backtest IBM Backtest
  • 18. Key Statistics IBM Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha Control Study 0.844 2.7% 0.015 Trailing Stop 0.615 7% 0.005 Option Hedging 1.194 3.8% 0.032 Covered Calls 1.891 3.3% 0.057 November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 18 Key statistics from testing our experimental strategy against a downward/sideways trending asset; IBM.
  • 19. Key Statistics SPY Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha Control Study 0.944 3.6% 0.007 Trailing Stop 1.396 4.1% 0.015 Option Hedging 1.038 3.6% 0.004 Covered Calls 2.13 3.0% 0.042 November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 19 Key statistics summary from re-testing the control and experimental strategies against a trending asset; the SPY ETF.
  • 22. Our Research Environment November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 22
  • 23. Coding the Idea, The Algorithm Lab November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 23
  • 24. Going Live, Deploying to Live Trading November-2017 QuantConnect – Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Page 24