Jcer asia survey-overview-20201220

Japan Center for Economic ResearchJCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey on Asian Economies
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey
on Asian Economies
December 2020
Survey Date: Nov. 20 - Dec. 14, 2020
About the Survey
This quarterly consensus survey, launched in March 2016, covers five ASEAN countries – Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand – and India. It is conducted by the Japan Center
for Economic Research (JCER) in cooperation with Nikkei Inc., the publisher of The Nikkei and the
Nikkei Asia. The results are disseminated through Nikkei publications and JCER.
It is linked with a similar consensus survey on the Chinese economy conducted by Nikkei and
Nikkei Quick News (NQN). The analyses of both surveys are reflected in this report.
Questionnaires were sent to experts across the region on November 20, and 38 responses were
collected by December 14. In addition to their forecast figures, economists’ perspectives and
outlooks on Asian economies are provided.
Contents
Overview Page 2
Forecasts Page 5
Risk Page 8
Comments on Topics in Focus in 2021 Page 9
Calendar Page10
Comments on Economies Page11
Country Reports
Indonesia Page 13
Malaysia Page 15
Philippines Page 17
Singapore Page 19
Thailand Page 21
India Page 23
Survey Respondents Page 25
The Survey Team Page 26

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Japan Center for Economic Research December, 2020
■ Overview December 21, 2020
Survey date: November 20-December 14, 2020
Slow and Uncertain Recovery Ahead in 2021
Economies to Reach Pre-COVID Levels in 2022, Vaccine Key
Asian economists expect their economies to recover in 2021 following sharp drops in 2020 due to
the COVID-19 pandemic. But with the future course of efforts to contain the virus still unclear,
recovery could be slow. Economists project a return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, not 2021.
Asked about topics that will impact economies in 2021, respondents point to the effectiveness and
availability of COVID-19 vaccines, after-effects of pandemic-related policies including increasing
public debt, and the policies of new U.S. president Joe Biden.
Highlights of the Survey
]
Economies Bottoming Out; Recoveries Depend on Vaccine, Policies
Conditions in Asia and across the world
changed significantly once again in the last three
months. The rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine
started in the U.K, U.S., and other countries in
December, while the spread of the pandemic
accelerated. Joe Biden declared victory in the U.S.
presidential election in early November, signaling
the end of the Trump era in January 2021.
Asian economies continued to shrink, but the
pace of decline slowed. Decreases in GDP in the
July-September period were smaller than those
recorded in the April-June period in all six
countries surveyed. The deterioration of outlooks
has also halted. Growth projections for 2020 and 2021 (or for fiscal 2020/21 and 2021/22) for these
countries had been revised downward in each of the last three surveys in March, June, and
September. This time, the projections were basically unchanged from the September survey.
 The average growth forecast for the ASEAN5 for 2021 was 4.3%, turning positive from the
-5.0% for 2020. Figures for both 2020 and 2021 were unchanged from the previous survey
in September.
 The Indian growth forecast for fiscal 2020/21 was revised up by 0.2 points to -8.2%. The
fiscal 2021/22 figure was also revised up by 1.0 point to 9.1%.
 The pace of economic decline is expected to ease in Q4 in all six countries. Growth figures
are projected to turn positive in Q1 or Q2 2021.
 Many economists project an uncertain road to recovery as the effectiveness and availability
the COVID-19 vaccine remains unclear.
 Projections show that most economies will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022.
Growth Rates of ASEAN Nations, India
Forecasts for Q4 2020 onward; in percentage;
Source JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines
Singapore Thailand India

- 3 -
Growth projections for the ASEAN5 for 2020 and 2021
are -5.0% and 4.3% respectively, unchanged from the
previous survey for both years. The 2021 growth figure
shows a V-shaped recovery for each economy, but this
largely owes to a base effect. Many economists foresee an
uncertain, less-than-robust recovery in 2021, given that it
will depend upon the development of the COVID-19
situation.
2020 growth projections for Thailand and Singapore
were revised slightly upward from the previous survey.
Bank of Ayudhya in Thailand raised its 2020 forecast,
reflecting “better-than-expected Q3 20 GDP data,
accelerating public spending, and stronger merchandise
exports,” explains Somprawin Manprasert. “Monthly
indicators show signs of bottoming out, but [are] still weak,” observes Yuma Tsuchiya of MUFG
Bank on Singapore’s economy. 2020 projections were revised slightly downward from the previous
survey for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. “Private consumption slowed due to weakening
purchasing power” triggered partly by “massive layoffs,” reports Juniman of Maybank Indonesia.
Economists project the growth rates of ASEAN countries to turn positive in Q1 or Q2 in 2021.
Still, recoveries could be weak and uncertain. Alvin Ang of Ateneo de Manila University in the
Philippines foresees a weak recovery given that “the economy will most likely remain in general
quarantine.” Wide administration of the vaccine will “take time,” he adds. “We expect economic
growth to start recovering in H2 2021, albeit the economic level [will remain] below the
pre-pandemic level,” comments Wisnu Wardana of Bank Danamon on the Indonesian economy.
“The Thai economy will likely remain subdued, mainly due to escalating global economic risks. The
global coronavirus outbreak is not yet
under control,” says Nattaporn
Triratanasirikul of Kasikorn Research
Center.
Some economists have a more positive
outlook. “Recovery prospects improve
amid vaccine hopes and consumption
stimulus measures,” stresses Vincent Loo
Yeong Hong of KAF Research on the
Malaysian economy. “We expect global
demand to surprise on the upside next
year, fueled by households drawing down
on their significant accumulated savings,”
says Manu Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia
in Singapore on the global economy.
Suhaimi Ilias of Maybank Investment Bank says that the economic outlook of 2021 “depends on
pandemic, politics and policy” for the Malaysian economy. Jonathan Ravelas of BDO Unibank sees
“govt. infra spending as [the] key economic driver in 2021” for the Philippine economy.
Developments in Pandemic and Policy
country development
Indonesia
Infection increases throughout Oct.-Dec. period
Omnibus bills pass parliament in Oct. amid resistance
BI cuts rate by 0.25 pts. to 3.75% on Nov. 19
Malaysia
Infection increases after Oct.
Parliament passes FY2021 budget
Political struggles continue
Philippines
Infection decreases after Sept.
Typhoon hits Luzon on Nov. 11, causing various disasters
Central bank cuts rate to by 0.25 pts. to 2% on Nov. 19
Singapore
Infection remains low
Use of tracking applications imposed in public facilities
COVID-19 case discovered aboard round-trip cruise ship
Thailand
Infection remains low
Ban on foreign tourists gradually lifted after late Oct.
Anti-govt. demonstrations restart in Oct.
India
Infection decreases after Sept.; cases reach 10mil. in Dec.
Festival season in Oct. and Nov.
CPI hovers above 6% for several months
Farmers and workers protest against new reform laws
Confirmed Cases of COVID-19
Source: WHO
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
Jan.31
Feb.29
Mar.31
Apr.30
May31
June30
July31
Aug31
Sept.30
Oct.31
Nov.30
Dec.19
world
India
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Jan.31
Feb.29
Mar.31
Apr.30
May31
June30
July31
Aug31
Sept.30
Oct.31
Nov.30
Dec.19
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand

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V-shaped Recovery Expected, Challenges Lie Ahead in India
The Indian economy was hit hard by COVID-19 infection and subsequent lockdowns. The growth
rate for the April-June period was -23.9%. The decline eased in the July-September period, with the
rate at -7.5%. The 2020/21 growth projection was revised slightly upward to -8.2%. The growth rate
is expected to rise to 9.1% in 2021/22, helped largely by a base effect.
Tirthankar Patnaik of National Stock Exchange of
India observes that the economy has improved faster
than expected: “Faster normalization of business
activities amid gradual lifting of lockdown
restrictions and restocking and pick-up in
consumption demand ahead of the festive season has
supported economic growth over the last few
months.” Looking to the future, he says, “growth is
expected to turn positive by the fourth quarter of this
fiscal year (January-March 2021).”
While envisaging a V-shaped recovery in 2021/22,
economists also note risks. Sonal Varma of Nomura
expects “continued normalization of the economy” while “downside risks on pandemic resurgence,
fiscal expenditure compression, and ebbing of pent-up festive demand” persist.
Inflation is also a matter of concern. Inflation has topped 6.0%, the upper limit of the central
bank’s target, for roughly six months. Supply chain bottlenecks for food and other goods that arose
following the nationwide lockdowns are mostly to blame. “Food inflation is likely to remain high for
the next 3-6 months,” comments Punit Srivastava of Daiwa Capital Markets India.
Growth projections for the six countries toward 2022 (2022/23) show that most economies will
return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022 (See the chart on this page). Nicholas Mapa of ING Bank
says that the Philippine economy will “return to its pre-COVID-19 level by mid-2022.”
In Focus in 2021: COVID-19 Vaccine, New U.S. President, U.S-China Relations
The survey asked economists about the
topics drawing their attention in 2021. The
deployment of the vaccine and other
COVID-19 related topics dominated their
interests.
“COVID-19 is still front and center,”
comments Carlo Asuncion of Union Bank of
the Philippines. “The most important issue in
2021 is whether we will have an effective
vaccine,” echoes Dendi Ramdani of Bank
Mandiri in Indonesia. He thinks that it will take
time to vaccinate people and to bring people
“confidence and optimism.” Wan Suhaimie of Kenanga Investment Bank in Malaysia warns that
“any negative outcome of the vaccine may cause another round of economic downturn.”
In Focus in 2021
The survey asked to select three topics with a rank of
significance. Scores are calculated in a way that gives
higher point to the answer considered more significant.
The answers were categorized into groups by JCER
0 20 40 60
COVID-19
Biden's policies
U.S.-China relations
Political developments
Global economy
Increasing debt
Easy monetary conditions
Projection of GDP Size (2019=100)
Forecasts for 2020 onward; Figures for India are
those for the fiscal year (April-March) Source:
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
2019 2020 2021 2022
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
India

- 5 -
Many governments throughout the world have
increased public spending and central banks have
loosened monetary policies to support their
pandemic-hit economies. “The expected increase in
government borrowing may exert upward pressure
on interest rates,” says Emilio Neri of Bank of the
Philippine Islands. Amonthep Chawla of CIMB
Thai Bank pays cites “abundant global financial
liquidity,” which “could lead to higher asset prices
in emerging markets.”
The policies of new U.S. President Joe Biden and
developments in U.S.-China relations also drew
attention. “Easing tensions with China can stabilize
the region,” says Vincent Loo of KAF Research in
Malaysia. “U.S.-China relations are still seen as
fraught, even with a new U.S. president,” adds
Manu Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia in Singapore.
■Forecasts
1. Economic Growth
Year-on-year %; forecasts are for 2020 onward; figures in parentheses represent average forecasts as of the
previous survey in September 2020; Annual figures for India are those for the fiscal year (April - March); Source:
JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey, Nikkei/NQN Survey, Haver Analytics
Growth to Turn Positive in 2021; COVID-19, Govt. Spending Keys
Unlike the last three surveys in March, June, and September in which outlooks significantly
deteriorated each time, growth projections for 2020 and 2021 (2020/21 and 2021/22 for India) are
mostly unchanged from the previous survey. Growth rates are likely to stay negative for five
ASEAN countries and India for 2020 (2020/21), but figures are expected to turn positive next
2020 2021
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-5.3 -4.4 -0.8 7.7 5.1 3.9 -5.0 4.3 5.0
(-3.8) (0.2) (7.4) (-5.0) (4.3) (4.8)
Indonesia -3.5 -2.0 0.5 4.2 5.0 5.0 -2.1 3.6 5.0
(-1.6) (2.0) (5.6) (-1.8) (4.2) (5.0)
Malaysia -2.7 -4.0 1.9 12.6 4.7 4.3 -5.8 5.9 5.2
(-0.5) (3.7) (11.0) (-5.5) (5.3) (4.9)
Philippines -11.5 -9.6 -1.6 11.2 6.1 6.0 -9.8 5.9 5.8
(-4.2) (3.4) (9.6) (-7.5) (5.9) (6.0)
Singapore -5.8 -3.7 -3.2 10.8 5.5 0.7 -5.8 4.5 3.5
(-2.1) (-3.7) (8.5) (-6.2) (4.8) (3.0)
Thailand -6.4 -6.1 -3.4 7.9 4.6 2.4 -6.5 3.5 5.3
(-11.4) (-5.3) (6.6) (-8.5) (2.6) (4.5)
-7.5 -1.4 -0.4 10.4 18.5 4.2 -8.2 9.1 5.0
(-2.8) (-0.3) (23.4) (-8.4) (8.1) (5.0)
4.9 - - - - 6.1 - - -
(2.2) (7.8) (5.4)
2019 2020
China
India
ASEAN5
20222021

- 6 -
year. There are mixed views on recovery scenarios, but most economists agree that recovery will
largely depend on the success of COVID-19 containment.
“The global economic recovery next year
depends on the process of handling the
COVID-19 infection and the…opening up of
economic activities,” says Juniman of Maybank
Indonesia. “The continued easing in quarantine
restrictions is slowly encouraging more
economic activity,” observes Pauline Revillas of
Metrobank on the Philippines economy. “A
return of consumer confidence is crucial to help
businesses get out of the doldrums,” she adds.
According to Manokaran Mottain of Alliance
Bank, “with the ongoing development of
vaccines and supportive policy measures, we
foresee Malaysia will be on the right path for
recovery in 2021.”
On the Indian economy, Jyoti Vij of FICCI states that “buoyant consumer sentiment during the
festive season has led to a much stronger economic recovery.” Punit Srivastava of Daiwa Capital
expects “GDP growth to surprise on the positive side in H2 FY20/21 and FY21/22 driven by
improvement in manufacturing, construction and services.” Dharmakirti Joshi of CRISIL sees the
situation cautiously. “Until a vaccine becomes widely available, spread of COVID-19…remains a
downside risk, which will determine the pace of economic recovery,” he says.
Public spending is regarded as another important key. “Economic growth may get its engine
from massive government spending,” says Ramdani of Bank Mandiri in Indonesia. “Fiscal
austerity is the biggest risk to the growth outlook,” remarks Mapa of ING Bank on the Philippine
economy.
2. Inflation Rates
Year-on-year, in percent; forecasts for 2020 onward; India’s figures for fiscal year, which starts in April;
Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey, Haver Analytics.
High Rate Projected for India
Inflation rates remained high in India in fiscal 2020/21. The rate has hovered above 6%, the
upper limit of central bank’s target, for months. This is due largely to the bottleneck effect in supply
chains of food and other goods that arose after the nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns. The high rate
makes it impossible for the central bank to cut its policy rate further.
2020 2021
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
India 6.9 6.7 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.8 6.4 4.7 4.1
Indonesia 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.3
Malaysia -1.4 -1.2 0.0 2.9 1.9 0.7 -1.0 1.8 1.9
Philippines 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.1
Singapore -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.7
Thailand -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 1.9 0.7 0.7 -0.9 0.9 1.0
2019 2020 20222021
Growth Rates of ASEAN5, India, China
Forecasts for 2020 onward except India; in
percentage; India’s figures for fiscal year which
begins in April; Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus
Survey, Nikkei/NQN Survey
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ASEAN5 India China

- 7 -
Economists are carefully monitoring developments. “While core inflation is likely to remain
sticky in the short run, we believe this largely reflects lockdown-related inelasticity of demand and
supply,” remarks Sonal Varma of Nomura.
3. Unemployment Rates
Year-on-year, in percent; forecasts for 2020 onward.
Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey, Haver Analytics.
Rates to Remain High
The unemployment rates in ASEAN countries have already risen sharply as economies shrink.
The 2020 rates are likely to increase drastically from the figures recorded in 2019. Still, the 2020
projections were revised downward from the previous survey for Indonesia, the Philippines and
Thailand. The figures for Malaysia and Singapore were
unchanged. Conditions are expected to improve in 2021,
but the pace could be slow.
Umar Juoro of the Habibie Center in Indonesia thinks
it will “take time for companies to hire workers again.” In
the Philippines, “unemployment will remain high in H1
2021 because many small firms are distressed,” offers
Victor Abola of University of Asia and the Pacific. “Labor
in tourism-related sectors could still suffer from a lagged
recovery in [these] sectors,” says Somprawin Manprasert of Bank of Ayudhya in Thailand.
Randolph Tan of Singapore University of Social Sciences considers structural change in the
economy and says: “Those who are unable to keep up will find it increasingly difficult to remain
relevant in the post-recovery workplace.” There are no regular official statistics on employment in
India, but reports suggest that many have lost jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic.
4. Exchange Rates (end of the period)
Figures: Domestic currency/US$; Forecast for end of periods for 2020 onward; Some respondents gave year-end
forecasts only; Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey, Haver Analytics
2020 2021
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Indonesia 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.2 5.2 7.2 6.3 5.8
Malaysia 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.3 4.5 4.2 3.8
Philippines 10.0 9.3 7.8 7.7 7.2 5.1 9.6 7.3 6.2
Singapore 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.4 2.3 3.6 3.4 2.8
Thailand 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.7
2021 20222019 2020
2020 2021
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
India 73.8 73.6 72.5 72.9 73.1 71.3 73.7 74.2 75.0
Indonesia 14918 14298 14256 14355 14390 13901 14298 14355 14261
Malaysia 4.16 4.09 4.05 4.04 4.04 4.09 4.09 4.05 4.06
Philippines 48.5 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.7 50.7 48.3 48.6 48.7
Singapore 1.37 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.33
Thailand 31.7 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.0
2022202120202019
Changes in Unemployment Rate
Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
2019 2020F 2021F

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Currencies May Remain Stable Amidst Weak USD Sentiment
Asian currencies have been relatively stable against the USD for months, supported by a weak
USD. Many economists think the trend will continue for now. “We do not see any significant factor
that would pressure the IDR until Q2 21,” says Wardana of Bank Danamon in Indonesia. Mapa of
ING Bank Philippines foresees a stronger peso toward 2020 “mainly due to weaker USD sentiment.”
5. Interest Rates (end of the period)
Three-month SIBOR for Singapore; policy interest rates for other countries; forecasts for 2020 onward.
Some respondents provided year-end forecasts only
Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey, Haver Analytics, CEIC
Rates Should Remain at Historically Low Levels for Now
Asian countries lowered policy rates this year following the outbreak of COVID-19. Policy rates
are now at historical lows in all countries surveyed except Singapore, where policy rate is not used.
Economists see the rates remaining stable for now. “We expect Malaysia’s central bank to maintain
the policy rate at its current level at least until 2022,” says Manokaran Mottain of Alliance Bank.
Further rate cuts are sought in some countries to support economies. Still, the central banks must
avoid igniting inflation or weakening their currencies. “Elevated inflation amid growth recovery
should lead to the RBI taking a wait-and-watch approach,” says Sonal Varma of Nomura in India.
■ Risk
COVID-related Risks, Political Instability
As in the previous survey, economists regard the COVID-19 pandemic and related risks as most
significant. “Spread of COVID-19 and its impact on economies” was the leading risk in all countries
surveyed except Indonesia, where it ranked 2nd
. “Rising unemployment” was among the three
biggest risks in Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. “Rising government debt and its sustainability”
assumed top position in Indonesia.
“Political instability” was the second greatest risk in Malaysia and the third greatest risk in
Thailand. “Potential political turmoil …is expected to further weigh on what could be a steadier
economic recovery,” comments Wan Suhaimie of Kenanga Investment Bank. “Thai politics still
offer a muddled picture and may weigh on the Thai economy,” says Nattaporn Triratanasirikul of
Kasikorn Research.
2020 2021
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
India 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.92 3.92 5.15 3.96 4.05 4.42
Indonesia 4.00 3.75 3.68 3.71 3.71 5.00 3.75 3.71 4.00
Malaysia 1.75 1.75 1.71 1.71 1.71 3.00 1.75 1.71 2.13
Philippines 2.25 1.96 1.93 1.93 1.93 4.00 1.97 2.00 2.30
Singapore 0.41 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.36 1.77 0.40 0.38 0.52
Thailand 0.50 0.45 0.35 0.35 0.35 1.25 0.45 0.35 0.33
2021 20222019 2020

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Changes in Anticipated Risks for Asian Economies in the Coming 12 Months
Scores are based on JCER Risk Signal scoring system. Yellow indicates a risk at the “cautious” level, red at the
"alarming" level. ☆ indicates market-related risks. Source: JCER/Nikkei Consensus Survey
Remarks on the Table
Risks in the table are described in simplified expressions. “Corona shock” is employed to indicate “Spread of
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its impact on economies”; “Fiscal restriction” for “Fiscal austerity drags on
growth” or “delay or insufficiency of fiscal spending”; “Rising debt” for “Rising household or corporate debt”;
“U.S.-China tensions” for “Slowdown or decrease in trade triggered by U.S.-China tensions surrounding trade and/or
high-tech issues”; “China slowdown” for “Chinese economy slowdown”; “Infrastructure” for “Infrastructure issues
hinder economic activity”; “Financial turmoil” for “Financial turmoil triggered by unanticipated events outside of the
U.S.”
 Comments on Topics in Focus in 2021
The survey asked economists about the topics drawing their attention in 2021 (see page 4). Further
comments appear in the table below.
COVID-19 and Its Impact
“Economic outlook in 2021 is mainly under COVID-19 theme. The effectiveness of COVID-19
vaccine would be game changer.” (Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, Kasikorn Research, Thailand )
“The global economy will continue to struggle next year since many countries have not controlled
the virus. However, the availability of a vaccine in the second half of 2021 may accelerate the
recovery of the Philippine economy.” (Emilio Neri, Bank of the Philippine Islands)
“The global and Singapore economies will emerge from the COVID-19 crisis with much higher
leverage risks in both the corporate and household sectors, which means a higher risk of financial
instability. (Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors, Singapore)
Economic Policies
“A large government spending in 2020 and 2021 [would] create a wide budget deficit, which may
create a financing problem in the coming years.” (Dendi Ramdani, Bank Mandiri, Indonesia)
Country
Risk Score Risk Score Risk Score
1. Rising govt. debt 64 1. Corona shock 75 1. Corona shock 100
2. Corona shock 60 2. Rising unemployment 35 2. Rising govt. debt 50
3. Rising unemployment 36 3. Rising govt. debt 30 3. Rising unemployment 40
1. Corona shock 100 1. Corona shock 100 1. Political instability 73
2. Political instability 70 2. Political instability 40 2. Corona shock 67
3. China slowdown 20 3. Rising unemployment 20 3. Rising unemployment 33
3. Delay of vaccine rollout 20 3. Fiscal restriction 20
1. Corona shock 70 1. Corona shock 86 1. Corona shock 83
2. Fiscal restriction 47 2. Rising unemployment 41 2. Rising unemployment 80
3. Infrastructure 37 3. Fiscal restriction 37 3. Fiscal restriction 23
1. Rising unemployment 90 2. Rising unemployment 60 2. Rising unemployment 47
3. Fiscal restriction 30 3. Rising debt 47 3. 2nd wave of Corona 33
3. Financial turmoil　☆ 30
2. Rising unemployment 60 2. Rising unemployment 65 2. Rising unemployment 48
3. Political instability 40 3. Political instability 30 3. Household/ corporate debt 44
3. Rising debt 30
2. Inflation 46 2. Rising govt. debt 40 2. Rising govt. debt 28
3. Fiscal restriction 36 3. Fiscal restriction 28 3. Financial Turmoil ☆ 24
June 2020
Indonesia
Thailand
India
Dec. 2020
Philippines
Singapore
Malaysia
Sept. 2020

- 10 -
“Policy support remains key to reviving demand amid the pandemic. However, both fiscal and
monetary policy have been facing constraints of late in the Indian economy.” (Dharmakirti Joshi.
CRISIL, India)
“Continuation of reforms will be key as fiscal deficit may go out of control otherwise.” (Punit
Srivastava, Daiwa Capital Markets India)
New U.S. President, U.S.-China Relations
“The global economic recovery also depends on the policies of the new U.S. president. We expect
the new president's policy to be more accommodating to global financial markets and can
accelerate the U.S. … and global economic recovery.” (Juniman, Maybank Indonesia)
“The U.S.-China trade jitters would continue to weigh on global trade as the market awaits more
clarity on Biden’s trade policy stance.” (Wan Suhaimie, Kenanga Investment Bank, Malaysia)
“Malaysia will be a major beneficiary of TPP if US is included.” (Vincent Loo, KAF Research)
■ Calendar
COVID-19, U.S. Presidential Election, RCEP, Hong Kong
Two major topics dominated international news headlines in the October-December period:
COVID-19 and the U.S. presidential election. The infection continued to spread in Asia and in other
parts of the world. Europe and the U.S. experienced their 2nd and 3rd waves of infection respectively.
Confirmed cases reached 70 million at the beginning of December. Meanwhile, the rollout of
vaccines started in December in the U.K., U.S., and other countries.
Former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party declared victory in the U.S. presidential
election in early November. President Trump, however, refused concession and confusion still
surrounds the transition process.
A series of meetings were held in the Asia-Pacific region in November. The Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or RCEP, was signed by 15 nations – 10 ASEAN
members plus Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. India did not join. Chinese
President Xi Jinping said that China would consider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact
in a televised APEC summit.
Meanwhile, 15 pro-democracy lawmakers in Hong Kong resigned after four members were
disqualified. The rules under the territory's new national security law strengthened.
News Related to Asian Economies from July to September; Upcoming Events
Sept. 23
Sept. 27
Sept. 29
Indian parliament passes 3 labor bills; protest continues
Indian parliament passes farm reform bills; farmers’ protection protest continues
Number of COVID-19 victims reaches 1 million worldwide
Oct. 2
Oct. 5
Oct. 14
Oct. 14
Oct. 20
Oct. 26
Oct. 26
U.S. President Trump contracts COVID-19; hospitalized 4 days
Omnibus bills pass House of Representatives in Indonesia amid protests
Demonstrations favoring democracy in Thailand restart; movement continues
Malaysia enforces further restriction of movement in KL as infection spreads
U.S. Justice Dept. sues Google over antitrust violation in search engine services
Singapore orders people to use tracking application in theaters and other public spaces
Chinese Communist Party meeting discusses issues including new 5-year plans

- 11 -
Nov. 3
Nov. 3
Nov. 8
Nov. 8
Nov. 11
Nov. 15
Nov. 19
Nov. 19
Nov. 21
Nov. 22
Nov. 24
Nov. 24
Nov. 27
U.S. presidential election; Joe Biden declares victory on Nov. 7
Ant Group postpones listing; suspicion of conflict with Chinese authorities
Election in Myanmar; Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD wins
Confirmed number of COVID-19 infections reaches 50mil
Hong Kong disqualifies four pro-democracy lawmakers; 15 members resign on Nov. 12
15 Asia-Pacific countries sign RCEP agreement; India not included
Indonesia cuts rate by 0.25 points to 3.75%
Philippines cuts rate by 0.25 points to 2%
APEC summit: Chinese President Xi Jinping expresses intention to join TPP
Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly visits Saudi Arabia
Dow Jones industrial average reaches 30,000
India bans 43 application services provided by Chinese tech firms; 3rd
ban since June
Iranian nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh assassinated; Iran vows revenge against Israel
Dec. 8
Dec. 9
Dec.11
Dec. 14
Dec. 15
Dec. 18
Dec. 19
Dec. 31
U.K. starts rolling out COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer/BioNTech
FTC sues Facebook over antitrust violation; demands to separate Instagram, WhatsApp
U.S. starts rolling out COVID-19 vaccine provided by Pfizer
U.S. Electoral College confirms Biden’s win in presidential election
Malaysia’s parliament passes 2021 budget
U.S. bans exports to China’s top drone maker DJI
Confirmed number of COVID-19 infections reaches 10 million in India
Deadline of E.U.-U.K. negotiation on post-Brexit trade relations
(2021)
Jan 20 Joe Biden to be inaugurated as U.S. president
■ Comments on Economies
Country Comment
Indonesia
“Raising unemployment and debt are the main risks that could discourage strong
recovery.” (Umar Juoro, Habibie Center)
The economy will “return to pre-pandemic level by early 2022.” “Growth momentum
to be hobbled by still sluggish consumption and capital formation.”
(Nicholas Mapa, ING Bank Philippines on the Indonesian economy)
Malaysia
“Politics is a tail risk to economic outlook, with potential policy risks and
implications.” (Suhaimi Ilias, Maybank Investment Bank)
“We anticipate unemployment condition remain escalated at least until 2021.”
(Manokaran Mottain, Alliance Bank)
Philippines
“PH economic recovery is firmly hinged on how government has controlled the spread
of Covid-19. A major driver for 2021 would be timely passage of the Philippine
national budget.” (Carlo Asuncion, Union Bank of the Philippines)
“While inflation is seen to remain low until yearend, upside risks coming from the
impact of the recent typhoons is seen.” (Pauline Revillas, Metrobank)
“Infrastructure bottlenecks and logistics costs” are in focus. “Even with minimal public
transport, traffic is already horrible.” (Victor Abola, Univ. of Asia and the Pacific)

- 12 -
Singapore
“Unemployment is higher than it has been for a long time, and the economy is in a
weakened state.” (Randolph Tan, SUSS)
“Even if the infection is managed, the economic recovery will be moderate.” (Yuma
Tsuchiya, MUFG Bank)
Thailand
“Thailand's economy could take at least 2 years or in 2022 to return to pre-covid-19
level.” “The economic recovery could lag behind regional peers due to slow recovering
international tourists.” (Amonthep Chawla, CIMB Thai Bank)
“An opportunity for the economy is coming from rising regionalization, which could
provide supports to Thai exports and domestic production in the medium term.”
(Somprawin Manprasert, Bank of Ayudhya, Thailand)
India
“There are some signs of flattening of economic activity in the third quarter
(Oct.-Dec.), even as the Covid-19 caseload has picked up once again.”
(Dharmakirti Joshi. CRISIL, India)
“Core inflation has remained quite sticky and may harden further as demand picks up.”
(Tirthankar Patnaik, National Stock Exchange of India)
“Various lead indicators including passenger car sales, two-wheeler sales, GST
collections, e-way bills generation … are pointing towards a turnaround in growth
numbers.” (Jyoti Vij, FICCI)
Note: See the list of survey respondents on page 25 for official names and titles.

- 13 -
 Highlights Recovery Expected in 2021 on Base Effect
The 2020 growth projection was revised to
-2.1%, down by 0.3 points from the previous
survey largely on weak consumption amidst the
COVID-19 pandemic. Still, this decline would
be less than those projected for neighboring
Asian countries. The growth rate is expected to
turn positive in 2021, but the figure was revised
downward. Positive growth owes largely to a
base effect. COVID-19 vaccine deployment as
well as government spending will hold the keys
to the economy in 2021.
1. Growth prospect Growth to Turn Positive in Q1 2021
The average projection expects negative
growth for Q4 2020, which will result in three
consecutive quarterly minus growths, and a
positive growth in Q1 2021. Still, the recovery
in 2021 is not expected to be strong. Wisnu
Wardana of Bank Danamon points out that
“economic growth could start to recover in 2H
2021, albeit economic levels [would remain]
below pre-pandemic levels.”
2. Inflation Rate to Gradually Increase in 2021
The inflation rate is expected to stay low at
2.0%, unchanged from the previous survey.
Maybank Indonesia’s Juniman points out that
COVID-19 has triggered declines in
“purchasing power and domestic demand.” The
rate is projected to increase in 2021, but the
pace would be slow. “We expect a slightly
higher index as demand starts to recover
slowly,” says Dendi Ramdani of Bank Mandiri.
3. Unemployment Rate to Fall in 2021
Although the projection improved slightly
from the previous survey, the unemployment
rate is expected to rise in 2020 as the economy
shrinks. Companies are laying off workers
especially in “labor intensive manufacturing”
sectors, points out Umar Juoro of the Habibie
Center. Bank Danamon’s Wardana does not
expect much improvement in the situation in
2021 as “companies shift to more efficient
ways of work via digital platforms.”
5.0
-2.1
3.6
5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Note: Shadow shows range between max. and min.
forecasts; same applies hereafter.
Real GDP Growth
1) Real GDP growth (year-on-year, %)
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲2.0 (▲0.4) ▲0.4 ▲3.2
2021 Jan.-Mar. 0.5 (▲1.5) 3.5 ▲4.5
Apr.-Jun. 4.2 (▲1.4) 6.6 1.9
Jul.-Sep. 5.0 6.5 2.9
▲2.1 (▲0.3) ▲1.6 ▲2.8
3.6 (▲0.6) 5.1 1.0
5.0 (＋0.0) 6.0 4.0
Note: Figures in parentheses show change from three months ago.
2019
2020
2021
2022
Average
▲3.5
5.0
2.8
2.0 2.6
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
5.2
7.2
6.3
5.8
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
（％）
（予測）
（暦年）

- 14 -
4. Exchange Rate (end of the period) Average View: Stable Rupiah for Now
The average forecast sees a relatively stable
rupiah toward 2021, but views differ by
respondent. Bank Mandiri’s Ramdani projects a
“stable” rupiah in the coming months as
“capital inflow starts to come to emerging
markets, including Indonesia,” According to
Nicholas Mapa of ING Bank, “renewed
optimism over the Omnibus law” will attract
foreign inflows and “bolster IDR until 2022.”
5. Interest Rate Possibility of Further Cuts in 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut the policy rate five
times—totaling 1.25% to 3.75%—in 2020.
Some economists expect further cuts in 2021.
Bank Danamon’s Wardana explains that BI
favors maintaining a low interest rate, and sees
“25bps room for rate cuts next year.” To give
the economy a boost, BI will “cut rates in
2021” says ING Bank’s Mapa.
6. Risks Government Debt and COVID-19
“Rising government debt” became the top
risk, rising from the 3rd position in the previous
survey. “Fiscal sustainability will be a question.
How long BI can do burden sharing is the other
problem,” warns Mapa of ING Bank.
COVID-19 is also regarded as a big risk. Bank
Mandiri’s Ramdani states: “We just received
the delivery of [China’s] Sinovac vaccine,
which is good, but it takes [time] to distribute.”
“More importantly,” he adds, “it takes time to
build confidence” among people sufficient to
boost spending.
7. In Focus in 2021 Vaccination Process, Budget Deficit
The survey asked economists about points in
focus in 2021. Many economists raised topics
related to COVID-19. “The global economic
recovery next year depends on the process of
handling COVID-19,” explains Juniman of
Maybank Indonesia. “This condition is closely
related to how fast” the vaccination will be
administered. The increase in budget debt “may
create a financing problem in the coming
years,” warns Bank Mandiri’s Ramdani.
13901
14298
14355
14261
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
IDR/US$
depreciation
5.00
3.75 3.71
4.00
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Policy
interest rate
change to 7-
day reverse
repo rate in
August 2016.
Rank Risk Score
1 Rising government debt 64
2
Spread of COVID-19
and its impact on economies 60
3 Rising unemployment 36
4 Chinese economy slowdown 28
5 Financial turmoil (U.S. policies) 16
6 Rising household or corporate debt 12
6 U.S. economy slowdown 12
6 Rise in commodity prices 12
Points in Focus
・The covid-19 vaccination process, the
situation of its infection and prevention.
・Increase in government debt in emerging
markets
・Question on central bank independence in
Indonesia.
・Policies of new U.S. president.
・Continuity of U.S.-China trade war.

- 15 -
 Highlights Growth Rate to Recover to 5.9% in 2021
The average growth projection for 2021 was
5.9%, up by 0.6 points from the previous
survey in September. Meanwhile, with the 3rd
wave of the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in
autumn, the 2020 forecast was revised down by
0.3% points to -5.8%. Economists predict that
effective implementation of the regional
Movement Control Order (MCO) and smooth
COVID-19 vaccine rollout, together with fiscal
measures, will promote economic recovery.
1. Growth Prospects Getting Back on Track
Wan Suhaimie of Kenanga Investment Bank
states that the effects of “the third wave of
COVID-19 may not be as severe as [the effects]
in Q2 20, given that most businesses are
allowed to continue operating under strict
Standard Operating Procedures.” Manokaran
Mottain of Alliance Bank expects that “with the
ongoing development of vaccines and
supportive policy measures, Malaysia will be
on the right path for recovery in 2021.”
2. Inflation Rate to Turn Positive in 2021
The average forecasts for 2020 and ‘21 were
-1.0 % and 1.8% respectively, virtually
unchanged from the September survey. Vincent
Loo of KAF Research expects “recovery in
energy prices to drive inflation for 2021,” but
predicts that “soft demand pressure will keep
inflation subdued.” Alliance Bank’s Mottain
says that “stimulus measures such as cash
payouts are expected to sustain spending, hence
gradually driving up price pressures.”
3. Unemployment Rate to Improve Gradually after 2021
The average projection improved to 4.2% in
2021 from 4.5% in 2020, the latter figure just as
predicted in the September survey. KAF’s Loo
predicts that “unemployment gradually
improves as the economy reopens, but it will
take longer than expected before the economy
returns to full employment as businesses still
face a tough time.” On the other hand, Wan
Suhaimie projects that “with the expectation of
a growth rebound next year, we forecast the
unemployment rate to fall to around 3.7%.”
4.3
-5.8
5.9
5.2
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Real GDP Growth
Real GDP growth (year-on-year, %)
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲4.0 (▲3.5) ▲1.7 ▲6.0
2021 Jan.-Mar. 1.9 (▲1.8) 3.9 ▲0.3
Apr.-Jun. 12.6 (＋1.6) 17.0 9.9
Jul.-Sep. 4.7 6.7 2.8
▲5.8 (▲0.3) ▲5.1 ▲6.3
5.9 (＋0.6) 6.5 5.1
5.2 (＋0.3) 7.5 4.1
2020
2021
2022
2019
Average
▲2.7
4.3
0.7
-1.0
1.8
1.9
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
3.3
4.5 4.2
3.8
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Malaysia

- 16 -
4. Exchange Rate (end of the period) Views Diverge on MYR
The average forecast at the end of 2021 was
revised toward a stronger MYR from the
September survey. Maybank’s Suhaimi Ilias
says that the “forecast is essentially premised
on the outlook of a softer USD,” and remarks
that the “expectation of global economic
recovery is also positive for MYR.” But KAF’s
Loo predicts that “ringgit strength should
continue through H1 21 amid risk-on capital
inflows, but may lose ground in H2 21 as global
monetary policies shift towards tightening.”
5. Interest Rate (Overnight Policy Rate) OPR Should Stay Flat Until End of 2021
Many respondents expect no further rate cuts
until the end of 2021. Suhaimi Ilias expects the
“OPR to stay at 1.75% until end-2021, but this
is a “dovish pause” to preserve monetary policy
space amid the downside risks, thus the bias
towards policy easing rather than tightening.”
Loo of KAF argues that “rates should be
maintained at low levels until recovery has
taken hold. Monetary policy is likely to shift
towards tightening from early 2022 onwards.”
6. Risks Political Instability Follows COVID-19
All respondents see COVID-19 as the top
risk factor amid the 3rd wave of the pandemic.
Wan Suhaimie worries that “the recent global
resurgence in COVID-19 infections is seen to
hurt external and domestic demand.” Political
Instability was named 2nd
leading risk after
COVID-19. Suhaimi Ilias refers to a “risk of
changes in Prime Minister and Government,”
and to the “prospect of a snap general election
as early as 2021.”
7. In Focus in 2021 U.S. Rejoining of TPP will be Welcome
Availability of the COVID-19 vaccine is a
focus for many of the respondents. Wan
Suhaimie stresses that “any negative outcome
of the vaccine may cause another round of
economic downturn.” Policies of the new U.S.
president are also in focus for 2021. KAF’s Loo
point out that “Malaysia will be a major
beneficiary of TPP if the U.S. is included, as it
is the only major economy with which
Malaysia does not have an FTA.” Alliance
Bank’s Mottain adds: “The reopening of
international borders and tourism activities will
also be the main subject in focus.”
4.09 4.094.054.06
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
MYR/US$
depreciation
3.00
1.75
1.71
2.13
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Rank Risk Score
1 Corona shock 100
2 Political instability 70
3 Corona Vaccine's Effectiveness 20
3 Chinese economy slowdown 20
5 Fall in comodity prices 15
Points in Focus
Availability of effective COVID-19 vaccine
US global policy & US-China relationship
Possible general election in Malaysia in 2021
The weak US dollar and its implication
The fate of the tourism sector

- 17 -
 Highlights Slow Recovery Projected in 2021
The 2020 growth projection was lowered to
-9.8%, down 2.3 points from the previous survey in
September. Economists foresee recovery in 2021,
but the growth projection remains steady at 5.9%.
Excluding base effect, this shows a slow
improvement of the economy. Consumption and
business sentiment are expected to remain weak.
Economists project that containment of COVID-19
as well as government spending hold the keys to a
stronger recovery in 2021.
1. Growth Prospects Negative Growth to Continue Until Q1 2021
With a possible delay in the containment of
COVID-19, economists foresee YoY negative
growth continuing until Q1 2021. Alvin Ang of
Ateneo de Manila Univ. expects a “slower recovery
as the economy will most likely remain in general
quarantine.” He thinks that it will take time before
the vaccine is widely administered. Jonathan
Ravelas of BDO Unibank sees “govt. infra
spending as a key economic driver in 2021.”
2. Inflation Rate to Stay Low; Typhoon Damage a Factor
Inflation is expected to stay low in 2020. The
average forecast is 2.5%. “Inflation will most
likely stay within the 2-4% target of the BSP in the
coming months given weak demand,” remarks
Emilio Neri of Bank of the Philippine Islands.
Referring to the typhoon disasters in November,
Pauline Revillas of Metrobank warns of “upside
risks coming from the impact of the recent
typhoons.”
3. Unemployment Rate to Gradually Decrease in 2021
The 2020 projection was lowered to below-10%
levels following the previous survey in September.
The rate is likely to decrease in 2021. “The
country's gradual recovery will likely translate to a
gradual decline in unemployment,” says Neri of
BPI. UnionBank’s Carlo Asuncion focuses on the
differences in job demand by sector, saying that
“there are certain jobs that will be slower than
others to return.”
6.0
-9.8
5.9
5.8
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Real GDP Growth
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲9.6 (▲5.4) ▲5.0 ▲13.5
2021 Jan.-Mar. ▲1.6 (▲5.0) 4.0 ▲7.6
Apr.-Jun. 11.2 (＋1.6) 15.0 4.5
Jul.-Sep. 6.1 8.7 4.0
▲9.8 (▲2.3) ▲8.6 ▲11.0
5.9 (＋0.0) 7.4 2.5
5.8 (▲0.2) 7.0 4.5
Average
2019
2020
6.0
▲11.5
2021
2022
2.5 2.5
2.7
3.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
5.1
9.6
7.3
6.2
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Philippines

- 18 -
4. Exchange Rate (end of the period) Peso Could Strengthen; Attention Overseas
Projections for the years following 2020 were
revised slightly toward a stronger peso. Still, views
on the future differ by economist. Revillas of
Metrobank argues that “taper tantrum” cannot be
discounted “if a vaccination program in the U.S.
does eventually work. The U.S. Fed might start
normalizing rates soon after.” Neri of BPI
mentions that “a decline in remittances amid the
recession in other countries may exert additional
pressure on the local currency.”
5. Interest Rate Low Rate to Continue to Support Economy
To support the pandemic-hit economy the central
bank cut its rate on Nov. 19 to a historically low
2.0%. Economists see the low rate continuing
toward 2021. ING Bank’s Nicholas Mapa predicts
that the central bank will maintain current rates,
saying: “No more cuts [are] likely as real policy
rates are now at -0.5%. BSP may hike rates in 2022
as inflation rises and economic activity improves in
H2 2022.”
6. Risks Government Spending Essential
“Corona shock” remained the top risk.
“COVID-19 is still front and center,” says
Asuncion of Union Bank. “Consumer confidence
in the country remains weak despite the easing of
restrictions,” observes Neri of BPI, adding that
“the lack of foot traffic in malls and other public
areas continues to dampen the demand for goods
and services.” The number two risk was “Fiscal
austerity drags on growth.” “Fiscal austerity is the
biggest risk to the growth outlook with the scars of
the ongoing recession now deeper,” comments
Mapa of ING Bank.
7. In Focus in 2021 Vaccine, Global Cooperation, U.S.
The survey asked economists about the topics
drawing their attention in 2021. Many economists
referred to COVID-19-related topics.
Developments around a vaccine were a popular
topic. Mapa of ING Bank worries that “PHL is late
in procurement of the vaccines…[and is] not able
to secure any doses from the market.” Global
cooperation in such fields as tourism, as well as the
new U.S. administration, were also in focus.
50.7
48.3 48.6 48.7
40
45
50
55
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
PHP/US$
depreciation
4.00
1.97 2.00
2.30
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Rank Risk Score
1 Corona shock 70
2 Fiscal austerity drags on growth 47
3
Infrastructure issues hinder
economic activity
37
5
Rising household or corporate
debt
13
5
Capital outflows/foreign
investment slowdown
13
Topics
Dealing with the spread of infection; vaccine
procurement and distribution
Global cooperation on air and tourism; global
value chain recovery
Impact of the new U.S. administration
Fiscal and monetary policy outlook; impact of
wider fiscal deficits on economic performance

- 19 -
 Highlights Economy to Recover on Low Base in 2021
Though economic contraction continues due
to the COVID-19 pandemic, economists see
signs of recovery. The 2020 growth projection
stayed negative at -5.8%, but the figure rose by
0.4 points from the previous survey. The 2021
forecast was 4.5%, up 10.3 points from the
2020 projection. The anticipated V-shaped
recovery is premised on base effect and
expectations for the development of a
COVID-19 vaccine. Concerns persist on the
delay of the vaccine rollout, new waves of
infection in the world, and rising domestic
unemployment.
1. Growth Prospects Growth to Return to Positive in Q2 2021
Growth rates have been negative since Q1
2020. Economists see the figure turning
positive in Q2 2021, but they envision varying
recovery scenarios. Yuma Tsuchiya of MUFG
sees that “even if the infection is managed,
economic recovery will be moderate.” Manu
Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia is more
optimistic, saying: “We expect global demand
to surprise on the upside next year.”
2. Inflation Rate to Turn Positive, But Remain Low
The average CPI rate for 2021 is 0.5%, up
from the -0.3% projected for 2020. “The key
drivers of price increases…remain dormant
under the shadow of the COVID restrictions,”
remarks Randolph Tan of Singapore University
of Social Sciences. He does not exclude the
possibility of price increases triggered by
supply-side restrictions.
3. Unemployment Rate to Jump Up in ‘20, to Fall Slowly in ‘21
The unemployment rate has increased
sharply in 2020 due to the economic slump.
Economists project the rate at 3.6% for 2020,
up 1.3 points from the figure recorded in 2019.
The rate is expected to fall in 2021, but at a
slow pace. “We expect the labor market to
remain soft in the near-term…the rate peaks
only in 2Q21, and recovers sluggishly
thereafter,” says Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia.
0.7
-5.8
4.5
3.5
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Note: Shadow shows range between max. and
min. forecasts; same applies hereafter.
Real GDP Growth
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲3.7 (▲1.6) ▲1.5 ▲5.0
2021 Jan.-Mar. ▲3.2 (＋0.5) ▲1.3 ▲6.0
Apr.-Jun. 10.8 (＋2.3) 13.7 3.5
Jul.-Sep. 5.5 6.3 4.6
▲5.8 (＋0.4) ▲5.2 ▲6.1
4.5 (▲0.3) 6.4 2.1
3.5 (＋0.5) 5.5 2.5
Average
2019
2020
2021
2022
▲5.8
0.7
0.6
-0.3
0.5
0.7
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
2.3
3.6
3.4
2.8
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Singapore

- 20 -
4. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
(end of the period)
MAS to Maintain Accommodative Stance
Singapore manages its monetary policy
through foreign exchange rates rather than
interest rates. “Given the cautious
anticipation…raised by the successful
development of several vaccines, the MAS
(Monetary Authority of Singapore) will almost
certainly want to continue with its
accommodative stance,” says Randolph Tan of
SUSS. Respondents see the exchange rate of
S$ maintaining roughly its current level
throughout the year.
5. Interest Rate (end of the period) Rate to Stay Low Amidst Global Easing
As Singapore does not have a policy interest
rate, the survey requests forecasts of the SGD
Sibor 3-month rate. The rate declined in the
first eight months to around 0.4% from 1.77%
at the end of 2019 amidst global monetary
easing, and has hovered around that level since.
Some economists see a slight increase in the
rate, while others foresee a decrease in 2021.
Still, they agree that the rate should not change
significantly.
6. Risk COVID-19 and Unemployment
“Corona shock” and “Rising unemployment”
were seen as the biggest risks. “Developments
on the virus and vaccine fronts continue to be
the main variable for global growth and by
extension Singapore’s economy,” remarks
Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia. “Unemployment
is higher than it has been for a long time,”
warns Tan of SUSS.
7. In Focus in 2021 Inflation, Financial Imbalance, Turbulence
The survey asked about the topics drawing
economists’ attention in 2021. Developments in
COVID-19 and related policies were singled
out. Centennial Asia’s Bhaskaran eyes the
possibility of inflation and “risk of financial
imbalances arising from the ultra-easy
monetary [policy].” Tan of SUSS says
turbulence could continue in the year ahead,
adding: “There are also risks of further crises
developing from the complications engendered
by the depth of the global COVID downturn.”
1.35 1.34
1.331.33
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
SGD/US$
depreciation
1.77
0.40 0.38
0.52
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Rank Risk Score
1 Corona shock 90
3 Fiscal austerity drags on growth 30
3
Financial turmoil (events outside of
the U.S.)
30
Depletion of resources due to prolonged fight
against COVID-19
Technological disruption caused by COVID-19
pandemic
U.S. foreign policy
U.S.-China relations
The path of inflation
Risk of financial imbalance

- 21 -
 Highlights Economy to Regain Pre-COVID Levels in 2022
The average growth projection for 2020 was
-6.5%, up 2.0 points from the previous survey in
September. “After the actual GDP in the third
quarter came out better than we projected, making
the GDP growth in the first 9 months registered at
-6.7%, we have reassessed the Thai economic
forecast for 2020 to -6.4%,” says Kasikornbank’s
Nattaporn Triratanasirikul Growth is expected to
jump up in 2021, helped by a base effect. CIMB
Thai Bank’s Amonthep Chawla thinks “Thailand's
economy could take at least 2 years…to return to
pre-COVID-19 levels.”
1. Growth Prospects Growth Rate to Turn Positive in Q2 2021
Economists think negative growth could continue
through Q1 2021. Bank of Ayudhya’s Somprawin
Manprasert says: “Thailand’s economic growth is
expected to turn positive from the second quarter of
2021, supported by low base effect, government
spending, and a cyclical rebound of external
demand. Exports would become an engine of
growth. Private investment in export-related sectors
could improve moderately.”
2. Inflation Rate to Turn Positive in 2021
The inflation rate in 2020 is forecast to decrease
to -0.9% in 2020, down 0.1 point from the previous
survey in September. The rate is expected to turn
positive in 2021 on economic recovery and higher
oil prices. CIMB Thai Bank’s Amonthep evaluates
the conditions: “Inflation would likely rise next
year following higher oil prices and raw food
prices; however, domestic demand would remain
weak, prompting prices to grow slowly.”
3. Unemployment Rate to Jump to 2.2% in 2020, Stay Flat in ‘21
The unemployment rate, which had hovered
around 1.0% for years, is expected to jump to 2.2%
in 2020 as the economy shrinks. The rate is
expected to stay around this level in 2021. Bank of
Ayudhya’s Somprawin notes that “in particular
labor in tourism-related sectors could still suffer
from a lagged recovery [in these sectors]. Thailand
tourism revenues account for 13%, which is the
largest among Asian countries.”
2.4
-6.5
3.5 5.3
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Real GDP Growth
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲6.1 (＋5.3) ▲5.0 ▲7.4
2021 Jan.-Mar. ▲3.4 (＋1.9) ▲2.0 ▲5.5
Apr.-Jun. 7.9 (＋1.3) 9.2 6.5
Jul.-Sep. 4.6 5.4 3.1
▲6.5 (＋2.0) ▲6.0 ▲6.9
3.5 (＋0.9) 4.1 3.2
5.3 (＋0.8) 9.5 3.0
Average
▲6.4
2019 2.4
2020
2021
2022
0.7
-0.9
0.9 1.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
yoy, %
1.0
2.2 2.3
1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Thailand

- 22 -
4. Exchange Rate (end of the period) Baht May Accelerate Toward Strengthening
The average projection sees the Thai baht
hovering around the 30baht/1USD level toward
2022. Still, views differ by economist. “In 2021,
THB/USD remains on an upward trend, supported
by continued surplus in the current account, a
weakening dollar trend, and net foreign fund
inflow,” says Kasikornbank’s Nattaporn. She
predicts THB/USD to reach 29.00-29.25 at
year-end.
5. Interest Rate (end of the period) Some Project Further Rate Cuts
Bank of Thailand cut interest rates to a historical
low of 0.5% in May, 2020. Most respondents see
the rate remaining unchanged for some time, but
some expect more rate cuts. Kasikornbank’s
Nattaporn predicts that “the MPC would likely cut
the rate for another 25 basis points to be at 0.25
percent during the first quarter in 2021.” She notes
that this would “support economic recovery, as the
tourism sector remains weak after resurgence in
many countries,” in addition to recent local
transmissions “delaying plans to re-open the
country to foreign tourists.”
6. Risks Political Instability Maintains No.3 Position
“Corona shock” retained its top position, and
“Rising unemployment” ranked second. “Political
instability” also maintained its third position from
the previous survey. Bank of Ayudhya’s Somprawin
points out that “domestic political unrest could
undermine economic growth and raise concern over
the continuity of economic policy.”
7. In Focus in 2021 Availability of COVID-19 Vaccine in Focus
For 2021 most economists referred to the
importance of administering the COVID-19
vaccine. Kasikornbank’s Nattaporn says: “[An
effective] COVID-19 vaccine would be a game
changer. The government has secured about 26
million doses, equivalent to 13 million people.
[Scaling] logistics and distribution to the Thai
population…in a short period of time is quite a
challenge.” CIMB Thai Bank’s Amonthep refers to
“abundant global financial liquidity which could
lead to higher asset prices in emerging economies”
as one of the main points in focus.
30.2
30.2 30.0
30.0
28
30
32
34
36
38
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
THB/US$
depreciation
1.25
0.45 0.35 0.330.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Risk Score
Spread of corona virus disease
(COVID-19) and its impact on
economies (corona shock)
93
Rising unemployment 60
Political instability 40
U.S. economy slowdown 27
Domestic currency appreciates 205
Rank
1
2
3
4
Pace of tourism recovery
Focus in 2021
Effectiveness and coverage of COVID-19 vaccine
US-China trade war under Biden's economic team
Abundant global financial liquidity which could lead
to higher asset prices
Domestic political tensions and continuity of
economic policy

- 23 -
 Highlight Hopes for a V-shaped Recovery; Challenges
With better-than-expected GDP growth of
7.5% in the Jul.-Sept. period, economists expect
a faster recovery of the Indian economy.
Additional stimulus packages as well as an
earlier launch of COVID-19 vaccines could help
lift the economy. But various challenges lie
ahead, including a rate of inflation that has
hovered above the FRB target, preventing FRB
from making further rate cuts. Narrower fiscal
space, the issue of non-performing assets in
financial sectors, and a slump in exports are also
obstacles to recovery.
1. Growth Prospects Expectations and Cautions
Many economists revised their growth
forecasts upward for FY2020/21. Tirthankar
Patnaik of NSE reports that “several indicators
are already back to pre-COVID levels.” Punit
Srivastava of Daiwa Capital Markets India says:
“We expect GDP growth to surprise on the
positive side in the second half of FY20/21 and
FY22.” On the other hand, Dharmakirti Joshi of
CRISIL is more cautious: “We intend to closely
watch incoming data before revising the
numbers.”
2. Inflation (CPI) Supply-chain Bottleneck Pushing Prices
The nationwide lockdown caused supply chain
bottlenecks, pushing up food and other prices.
Most economists see the rate staying above
6.0%, the upper limit of FRB’s target, for some
time. According to Sonal Varma of Nomura,
“this largely reflects lockdown-related
inelasticities of demand and supply.” Daiwa’s
Srivastava projects that “food inflation is likely
to remain high for next 3-6 months.”
3. Exchange Rate (end of calendar year) Stable Rupee Expected for Now
Most economists predict a stable rupee. Joshi of
CRISIL expects that the “rupee will continue to
be supported by low global interest rates.”
Patnaik of NSE says “a comfortable external
position will support the rupee.” For Srivastava
of Daiwa, “high FII inflows and low imports are
keeping the rupee stable.” Strength of economic
recovery, inflation, and current accounts are
viewed as among the factors affecting the rupee
rate.
4.2
-8.2
9.1
5.0
-12.0
-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21 2022/23
yoy, %
Dec 2020 Ave.
Sep 2020 Ave.
Real GDP Growth
Real GDP growth (year-on-year, %)
Max. Min.
2020 Jul.-Sep.
Oct.-Dec. ▲1.4 (＋1.4) ▲0.8 ▲1.9
2021 Jan.-Mar. ▲0.4 (▲0.1) 0.5 ▲1.2
Apr.-Jun. 10.4 (▲13.0) 25.0 ▲4.3
Jul.-Sep. 18.5 29.0 8.0
▲8.2 (＋0.2) ▲6.5 ▲10.5
9.1 (＋1.0) 10.0 8.5
5.0 (＋0.0) 6.0 4.0
Average
▲7.5
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
4.22019/20
4.8
6.4
4.7
4.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21 2022/23
yoy, %
71.3
73.7
74.2
75.0
60
65
70
75
80
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
INR/US$
depreciation
India

- 24 -
4. Policy Interest Rate (RBI Repo Rate)
(end of calendar year)
No Rate Change in Sight for Now
With inflation hovering above RBI’s target of
2-6%, most economists predict that RBI will
keep the repo rate unchanged through 2021.
Jyoti Vij of FICCI stresses that “RBI is likely to
keep its repo rate for the entire FY20/21 due to
price pressure.” Varma of Nomura sees that
“elevated inflation amid growth recovery should
lead to the RBI taking a wait-and-watch
approach.” Srivastava of Daiwa says: “With
inflation staying high and demand likely to pick
up, RBI may not cut rates in 2021.”
5. Risks Inflation Emerges as No.2 Risk
“Inflation” became the second leading risk
behind COVID-19. Joshi of CRISIL remarks that
“inflation persisting beyond the 2-6% target
range is constraining RBI in supporting the
economy through rate cuts.” On COVID-19, Vij
of FICCI warns that “India witnesses a surge in
fresh cases recently owing to the festivities.”
Fiscal austerity is also a matter of concern. Joshi
of CRISIL says that “India lacked fiscal space
even before COVID-19 hit, which has limited
government’s ability to support growth.”
6. In Focus in 2021 Vaccines, Economy, Reforms
On coronavirus, Jyoti Vij of FICCI sees
“positive outcomes on vaccine development
[playing] a big role in allaying fears and
uncertainties.” Joshi of CRISIL adds: “Until a
vaccine becomes widely available, COVID-19
trajectory remains a downside risk.”
Patnaik of NSE is cautious on the economy:
“Signs of recovery are far from broad-based, and
require ongoing support from RBI as well as the
government.” He also highlights troubles in
financial sectors, saying that “the banking sector
may see a spike in NPAs.” Srivastava of Daiwa
emphasizes the necessity of reform, stressing
that “continuation of reform will be key as the
fiscal deficit may go out of control otherwise.”
5.15
3.96
4.05 4.42
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
%
Score
86
46
36
30
205 Economic reform prospects decline
4 Rising government debt
3 Fiscal austerity drags on growth
2 Inflation accelerates/asset bubble
1 Corona Shock
Rank Risk
In Focus for Economists
COVID-19
--Development and distribution of vaccine
--Further slowing of the spread; policy response
Economy
--Acceleration of ongoing recovery in the next few
quarters is crucial
--Global recovery and developments in trade
--Impact of easy financial conditions
--Fiscal and monetary policy support to the economy
--Inflation control
Reform
--Continuation of reforms
--Agriculture reforms
Others
--Change of the government in U.S.
--Cyber risk and data protection

- 25 -
■List of Survey Respondents
Indonesia
Maybank Indonesia Chief Economist Juniman
Bank Mandiri
Head of Industry and Regional
Research Department
Dendi Ramdani
The Habibie Center Senior Fellow Umar Juoro
Bank Danamon Indonesia Economist Wisnu Wardana
Malaysia
Maybank Investment Bank Chief Economist Suhaimi Ilias
Kenanga Investment Bank Head, Economic Research
Wan Suhaimie bin Wan
Mohd Saidie
KAF Research Senior Economist Vincent Loo Yeong Hong
Alliance Bank Chief Economist Manokaran Mottain
Philippines
Ateneo de Manila University
Director, Ateneo Center for Economic
Research and Development
Alvin Ang
BDO Unibank Inc. Chief Market Strategist Jonathan Ravelas
Metrobank Research Analyst Pauline Revillas
Bank of the Philippine Islands Vice President / Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr.
University of Asia and the Pacific Senior Economist Victor Abola
Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Carlo Asuncion
Singapore
Centennial Asia Advisors CEO Manu Bhaskaran
Singapore University of Social
Sciences
Director, Centre for Applied
Research
Randolph Tan
MUFG Bank, Ltd. Senior Economist Yuma Tsuchiya
Thailand
Kasikorn Research Center Assistant Managing Director Nattaporn Triratanasirikul
Bank of Ayudhya PCL
Head of Research Division and
Chief Economist
Somprawin Manprasert
CIMB Thai Bank Head of Research Amonthep Chawla
India
Daiwa Capital Markets India Head of Research Punit Srivastava
CRISIL Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi
Nomura India India Chief Economist Sonal Varma
National Stock Exchange of India Chief Economist Tirthankar Patnaik
Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FICCI)
Deputy Secretary General Jyoti Vij
For Multiple Countries
Nomura Singapore Chief ASEAN Economist Euben Paracuelles
Barclays Bank Director, Regional Economist Rahul Bajoria
ING Bank Philippines Senior Economist Nicholas Mapa

- 26 -
The Survey Team
Project leaders
Kiyoshi Kusaka, Principal Economist, JCER
Kenji Yuasa, Lead Economist, JCER
Reports
Overview Kiyoshi Kusaka, Principal Economist, JCER
Indonesia Daisuke Maruyama, Economist, JCER
Malaysia Masatami Kasagi, Special Contributor, Southeast Asia Specialist
Kiyoshi Kusaka, Principal Economist, JCER
Philippines Aiko Munakata, Economist, JCER
Singapore Kiyoshi Kusaka, Principal Economist, JCER
Thailand Masashi Uehara, Principal Economist, JCER
India Go Yamada, Principal Economist, JCER
Data and System
Akira Tanaka, Senior Economist, JCER
Coordinators
Yoshimi Fujimoto, Survey Coordinator, Economic Research Department
Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER)
Nikkei Building 11F
1-3-7 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8066, Japan
Tel: + 81-3-6256-7710
Mail: asiasurvey1@jcer.or.jp

Jcer asia survey-overview-20201220

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