This document analyzes projected voter turnout by region and county for an election based on a retrospective study. It finds that overall national voter turnout would be approximately 74.2% of the 14,340,000 eligible voters. Voter turnout is projected to be highest in central Kenya at 90% and lowest in Northeastern Province at 40%. Key swing regions like Rift Valley and Coast are expected to see turnout of 70-75%.

1. PROJECTED VOTER TURN
OUT PER REGION AND PER
COUNTY
(BASED ON RETROSPECTIVE STUDY)
By Dr MAKODINGO Washington,
Political Consultant
Twitter: @makodingo

2. Eligible Voters By Tribe (2009 Census)
Mijikenda Others Kikuyu
5% 14% 17%
Meru
4% Luhya
Kisii 14%
6%
Kalenjin
Kamba 13%
10% Luo
Somali
11%
6%

3. DEDUCTIONS
 Assuming that ALL Kalenjins + Kikuyus +Merus +Embus voted
for #JubileeAlliance, they would get = 36% of All Votes
 If ALL Luos + Kambas +Luhyas voted for #CORD, they would
get – 34%
 Based on the above, the two Coalitions would essentially
begin with a similar Core Support.
 The rest of the Country, based on a purely tribal arithmetic, are
more likely to vote #CORD than #JubileeAlliance.
 Of course voter Turn-Out would vary markedly.
 The tables below look at Projected Voter Turn-Out based on a
retrospective study of Electoral data and having looked at the
various factors likely to influence voting patterns.

4. CENTRAL
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Nyandarua 252,889 214,956 85%
Nyeri 357,105 339,250 95%
Kirinyaga 262,715 249,579 95%
Muranga 457,052 434,199 95%
Kiambu 860,716 731,609 85%
2,190,477 1,969,593 90%

5. NYANZA
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Siaya 312,518 296,892 95%
Kisumu 388,729 369,293 95%
Homa Bay 331,698 315,113 95%
Migori 287,702 273,317 95%
Kisii 414,493 290,145 70%
Nyamira 219,616 153,731 70%
1,954,756 1,698,491 87%

6. RIFT VALLEY
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Turkana 120,345 36,104 30%
West Pokot 107,894 64,736 60%
Samburu 56,662 22,665 40%
Trans Nzoia 231,352 173,514 75%
Uasin Gishu 318,717 239,038 75%
Elgeyo 134,290 80,574 60%

7. Nandi 254,788 178,352 70%
Baringo 171,013 111,158 65%
Laikipia 170,267 136,214 80%
Nakuru 695,879 556,703 80%
Narok 253,086 177,160 70%
Kajiado 315,053 220,537 70%
Kericho 290,102 203,071 70%
Bomet 254,405 178,084 70%
3,373,853 2,377,910 70%

8. EASTERN
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Marsabit 104,408 41,763 40%
Isiolo 52,617 31,570 60%
Meru 483,517 362,638 75%
Tharaka Nithi 155,823 116,867 75%
Embu 226,989 170,242 75%
Kitui 323,624 226,537 70%
Machakos 445,819 312,073 70%
Makueni 300,086 210,060 70%
2,092,883 1,471,750 70%

9. WESTERN
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Kakamega 568,813 426,610 75%
Vihiga 202,456 151,842 75%
Bungoma 411,981 308,986 75%
Busia 251,737 176,216 70%
1,434,987 1,076,240 74.1%

10. COAST
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Mombasa 412,602 268,191 65%
Kwale 173,447 69,379 40%
Kilifi 340,948 204,569 60%
Tana River 73,037 29,215 40%
Lamu 51,830 36,281 70%
Taita Taveta 112,219 61,720 55%
1,164,083 669,355 58%

11. NEP
COUNTY REG VOTERS TURN OUT AS %
Garissa 116,166 46,466 40%
Wajir 110,286 44,114 40%
Mandera 121,005 48,402 40%
347,457 138,983 40%

12. NAIROBI
REGISTERED VOTERS
1,778,903
VOTER TURN-OUT
1,245,232 (70%)
OVERALL VOTER TURN-OUT
10,634,967 (74.2%)