1. PrimCity: Policy
Development Kit
Andrey A. Krasovskii
IIASA, Laxenburg
Dmitry A. Pisarenko
Moscow, Russia
2. Purpose of the Project
To create a piece of software for creating strategies of economic
development of a city in the Russian Far East
Key benefits
✔
Based on real data
✔
Microsimulation approach (aka SimCity for a real city)
✔
Developed policies can be communicated easily to stakeholders
without formal training in math and/or economics
3. Competitive Analysis
• Several microsimulation models have been
developed by other researchers
• Most advanced: UrbanSim
• Drawback: Can not be easily adapted to Russian
data
6. Design of Fertility/Mortality Control
➔
The controls stand for investments into fertility growth and
mortality retention and have different regimes.
➔
To interpret controls, we associate them with investments into
factors, which indirectly (through statistically correlated economic,
social, cultural, etc. processes) affect these demographic
indicators.
8. Modeling Results
The period is devided in 4 phases:
1. Stable fertility growth and moderate mortality growth from 1970 to 1986.
2. Dramatic decline in investments, and, consequently, decrease in fertility and
rise in mortality from 1986 to 1991.
3. Catching up: From 1991 to 1998 – recovery of fertility and attempts at mortality
retention.
4. Period of "stagnation": from 1998 to 2001 – constant investments in fertility and
mortality retention.
9. Interpretation of Control Policies
Factors highly correlated with mortality:
✔
The rate of setting up new hospitals;
✔
The rate of setting up of new kindergartens;
✔
The rate of setting up of new polyclinics;
✔
Number of theater visits.
Factors highly correlated with
mortality:
✔
Degree of income stratification;
✔
Level of industrial production;
✔
Number of theatre visits;
✔
Number of books printed;
✔
Number of letters sent;
✔
Production of kvass.
Total factors in the analysis: 23.
Source of data: S.Yu. Glazev et al. White Book. Economic Policy in Russia in
1991-2001. Eksmo, Moscow, 2003. (in Russian)
11. Generating Synthetic Population and
Households of Artyom
Artyom is a real city in the Far East region
of Russia with population of 103,000
inhabitants. We generate synthetic
population with atributes:
Input data for the generator:
current aggregated statistics for the Far East region and Russian
Federation.
12. Results from Generator
Distribution of households by
number of people
Age distribution of women
Distribution of households by
number of children
13. Fertility Model for Synthetic Population Growth
The decion for a woman to have a child is defined by the probability which is
calculated as the weighted sum of conditional probabilities depending on woman's
attributes:
➔
Age
➔
Number of children
➔
Socio-economic factors (i.e. distance from the household to the hospital)
Simulator screensot linking database to GIS
