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Dynamics of Complex
Networks and Systems
Research Paper
Predicting The Future with Social Media
Okeke, Chukwuma SYSM 6302 FALL, 2015 Prof. Spong, Mark 12/19/2015
AGENDA
11 What is Social Media/Network? Twitter
22 Social media feeds can be effective indicators of real-world performance
Social media to build powerful models to predict the future33
44 Perform some Analysis and show how they can improve future predictions
55 Q & A
A social network is a social structure made up of a
set of social actors (such as individuals or
organizations), sets of dyadic ties, and other social
interactions between actors
Social Network
Social Media
Social media is defined as "a group of Internet-
based applications that build on the ideological and
technological foundations of Web 2.0, and that
allow the creation and exchange of user-generated
content.
Twitter is an online social networking
service that enables users to send and read
short 140-character messages called
"tweets"
Launched on July 13, 2006
Directed social network
Each user has a set of subscribers known as followers
320m Active monthly users
•Tweets - short
messages , news or
links to content such
as images, video and
articles
•retweet is a post
originally made by
one user that is
forwarded by
another user
Performance
Obtained data of all tweets referring to
a movie, we used keywords present in
the movie title as search arguments
2.89 million tweets referring to 24
different movies released over a
period of three months from 1.2
million users
Movie Release Date
Armored 2009-12-04
Avatar 2009-12-18
The Blind Side 2009-11-20
The Book of Eli 2010-01-15
Daybreakers 2010-01-08
Dear John 2010-02-05
Did You Hear About The Morgans 2009-12-18
Edge Of Darkness 2010-01-29
Extraordinary Measures 2010-01-22
From Paris With Love 2010-02-05
The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus 2010-01-08
Invictus 2009-12-11
Leap Year 2010-01-08
Legion 2010-01-22
Twilight : New Moon 2009-11-20
Pirate Radio 2009-11-13
Princess And The Frog 2009-12-11
Sherlock Holmes 2009-12-25
Spy Next Door 2010-01-15
The Crazies 2010-02-26
Tooth Fairy 2010-01-22
Transylmania 2009-12-04
When In Rome 2010-01-29
Youth In Revolt 2010-01-08
Distribution of total authors and the movies they comment on
Features Week 0 Week 1 Week 2
url 39.5 25.5 22.5
retweet 12.1 12.1 11.66
TABLE II URL AND RETWEET
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Tweetswithurls(percentage)
Week 0
Week 1
Week 2
Percentages of urls in tweets for different movies.
Features Adjusted R2
p-value
Avg Tweet-rate 0.80 3.65e-09
Tweet-rate timeseries 0.93 5.279e-09
Tweet-rate timeseries + thcnt 0.973 9.14e-12
HSX timeseries + thcnt 0.965 1.030e-10
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R2
) VALUES USING DIFFERENT
PREDICTORS FOR MOVIE BOX-OFFICE REVENUE FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND.
Predicted vs Actual box office scores using tweet-rate and HSX predictors
Conclusion
• social media can be utilized to forecast future outcomes.
Specifically, using the rate of chatter from almost 3 million tweets
from the popular site Twitter
• we constructed a linear regression model for predicting box-office
revenues of movies in advance of their release
• We then showed that the results outperformed in accuracy those of
the Hollywood Stock Exchange and that there is a strong correlation
between the amount of attention a given topic has (in this case a
forthcoming movie) and its ranking in the future
Conclusion/Recommendation
• This method can be extended to a large panoply of topics, ranging
from the future rating of products to agenda setting and election
outcomes.
• At a deeper level, this work shows how social media expresses a
collective wisdom which, when properly tapped, can yield an
extremely powerful and accurate indicator of future outcomes.
Q&A

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Predicting the future with social media

  • 1. Dynamics of Complex Networks and Systems Research Paper Predicting The Future with Social Media Okeke, Chukwuma SYSM 6302 FALL, 2015 Prof. Spong, Mark 12/19/2015
  • 2.
  • 3. AGENDA 11 What is Social Media/Network? Twitter 22 Social media feeds can be effective indicators of real-world performance Social media to build powerful models to predict the future33 44 Perform some Analysis and show how they can improve future predictions 55 Q & A
  • 4.
  • 5. A social network is a social structure made up of a set of social actors (such as individuals or organizations), sets of dyadic ties, and other social interactions between actors Social Network Social Media Social media is defined as "a group of Internet- based applications that build on the ideological and technological foundations of Web 2.0, and that allow the creation and exchange of user-generated content.
  • 6. Twitter is an online social networking service that enables users to send and read short 140-character messages called "tweets" Launched on July 13, 2006 Directed social network Each user has a set of subscribers known as followers 320m Active monthly users •Tweets - short messages , news or links to content such as images, video and articles •retweet is a post originally made by one user that is forwarded by another user
  • 7. Performance Obtained data of all tweets referring to a movie, we used keywords present in the movie title as search arguments 2.89 million tweets referring to 24 different movies released over a period of three months from 1.2 million users
  • 8. Movie Release Date Armored 2009-12-04 Avatar 2009-12-18 The Blind Side 2009-11-20 The Book of Eli 2010-01-15 Daybreakers 2010-01-08 Dear John 2010-02-05 Did You Hear About The Morgans 2009-12-18 Edge Of Darkness 2010-01-29 Extraordinary Measures 2010-01-22 From Paris With Love 2010-02-05 The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus 2010-01-08 Invictus 2009-12-11 Leap Year 2010-01-08 Legion 2010-01-22 Twilight : New Moon 2009-11-20 Pirate Radio 2009-11-13 Princess And The Frog 2009-12-11 Sherlock Holmes 2009-12-25 Spy Next Door 2010-01-15 The Crazies 2010-02-26 Tooth Fairy 2010-01-22 Transylmania 2009-12-04 When In Rome 2010-01-29 Youth In Revolt 2010-01-08
  • 9.
  • 10. Distribution of total authors and the movies they comment on Features Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 url 39.5 25.5 22.5 retweet 12.1 12.1 11.66 TABLE II URL AND RETWEET 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Tweetswithurls(percentage) Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Percentages of urls in tweets for different movies.
  • 11. Features Adjusted R2 p-value Avg Tweet-rate 0.80 3.65e-09 Tweet-rate timeseries 0.93 5.279e-09 Tweet-rate timeseries + thcnt 0.973 9.14e-12 HSX timeseries + thcnt 0.965 1.030e-10 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R2 ) VALUES USING DIFFERENT PREDICTORS FOR MOVIE BOX-OFFICE REVENUE FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND.
  • 12. Predicted vs Actual box office scores using tweet-rate and HSX predictors
  • 13. Conclusion • social media can be utilized to forecast future outcomes. Specifically, using the rate of chatter from almost 3 million tweets from the popular site Twitter • we constructed a linear regression model for predicting box-office revenues of movies in advance of their release • We then showed that the results outperformed in accuracy those of the Hollywood Stock Exchange and that there is a strong correlation between the amount of attention a given topic has (in this case a forthcoming movie) and its ranking in the future
  • 14. Conclusion/Recommendation • This method can be extended to a large panoply of topics, ranging from the future rating of products to agenda setting and election outcomes. • At a deeper level, this work shows how social media expresses a collective wisdom which, when properly tapped, can yield an extremely powerful and accurate indicator of future outcomes.
  • 15. Q&A