This document discusses the potential of under-represented groups in the Canadian and Newfoundland and Labrador labor markets. It notes that youth, women, older workers, and recent immigrants have been hit hardest by the pandemic and are at risk of long-term "scarring" without intervention. The document outlines unemployed workers by region and occupation. It also provides data on the potential supply of under-represented groups if participation rates matched the national average. Finally, it discusses effective policy approaches like targeting skills development, income support, and strengthening program evaluation to support these groups.

1. Potential of under-represented
groups
Steven Tobin, Executive Director
Labour Market Information Council
09.06.2021

2. Context
The past: Low(er) unemployment + skills and labour shortages
The present: High(er) unemployment + emerging skills shortages +
little/no labour shortages + under-represented groups hardest hit
(near) Future: Low(er) unemployment (hopefully) + skills
shortages and (potentially) labour market scarring of under-
represented groups

3. Unemployed pool of workers by occupation
Economic Region Occupation Number
Avalon Peninsula
Fishing vessel deckhands 1250
Cashiers 750
Carpenters 750
Construction trades helpers and labourers 750
Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 500
Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay
Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 1000
Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades 500
Carpenters 500
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 500
Fishing vessel deckhands 1000
South Coast - Burin Peninsula
Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians 250
Employment counsellors 250
Social and community service workers 250
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 250
Carpenters 250
West Coast - Northern Peninsula -
Labrador
Construction trades helpers and labourers 750
Cashiers 500
Light duty cleaners 500
Carpenters 500
Transport truck drivers 500

4. Potential supply of under-represented groups
Total
(15+)
Youth
15-24
Women
25-54
Older
workers
55 +
Recent
immigrants
Canada 65.3 65.0 83.4 37.6 75.7
Newfoundland and Labrador 57.6 63.0 82.4 31.4 76.9
Avalon Peninsula 59.2 63.3 83.8 33.2 ..
South Coast - Burin Peninsula 53.0 57.1 81.8 24.1 ..
West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador 60.7 68.1 85.3 33.1 ..
Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay 51.8 57.9 75.9 27.8 ..

5. Potential supply of under-represented groups
Total
(15+)
Youth
15-24
Women
25-54
Older
workers
55 +
Recent
immigrants
Canada 65.3 65.0 83.4 37.6 75.7
Newfoundland and Labrador 57.6 63.0 82.4 31.4 76.9
Avalon Peninsula 59.2 63.3 83.8 33.2 ..
South Coast - Burin Peninsula 53.0 57.1 81.8 24.1 ..
West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador 60.7 68.1 85.3 33.1 ..
Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay 51.8 57.9 75.9 27.8 ..

6. Potential supply of under-represented groups
Total
(15+)
Youth
15-24
Women
25-54
Older
workers
55 +
Recent
immigrants
Canada 65.3 65.0 83.4 37.6 75.7
Newfoundland and Labrador 57.6 63.0 82.4 31.4 76.9
Avalon Peninsula 59.2 63.3 83.8 33.2 ..
South Coast - Burin Peninsula 53.0 57.1 81.8 24.1 ..
West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador 60.7 68.1 85.3 33.1 ..
Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay 51.8 57.9 75.9 27.8 ..

7. Scenario: Raise participation to Canadian average
Youth
15-24
Women
25-54
Older workers
55 +
Newfoundland and Labrador 1,461 1,569 12,540
Avalon Peninsula 510 .. 4,609
South Coast - Burin Peninsula 277 88 1,823
West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador .. .. 1,699
Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay 675 1,481 4,410

8. Where will the jobs come from?
1. Economic development/growth strategy
• Support those most impacted/new toolkit
2. Supply-side dynamics
• Wage-led spillover effects
• “Lump of labour fallacy”
• Tax savings
• Investments now = avoid labour market scarring

9. Effective Policy Design
3. Local needs and system delivery
• Regional workforce development committees
4. Skills, skills and skills
• Demand side: progress
• Supply side: ?

10. Language of skills
The past: Binary language of credentials
The present/future: Complex language of
skills, knowledge, tools

11. Approaches to skills (in demand)
Taxonomy or
classification
system
Job
posting
data
Surveys
1 2 3 4
Hybrid
LMIC Understand Skills Project Page

12. Occupational profiles
ESDC Skills and Competency Framework
• Forthcoming Occupational Skills and Information System
(OaSIS)
US Occupational Information Network (O*NET)
1

13. Job posting data
2

14. Approaches to forecasting skills (in demand)
LMIC-FSC Primer on Forecasting Skills + Paper
Three broad approaches to forecasting in-demand
skills :
• forecasting employment in occupations and
mapping these data to skills
• forecasting skills based on online job postings
• modelling expert opinions

15. Effective Policy Design
5. Target the disadvantage not just the
disadvantaged
6. Income support + skills training
7. Strengthen program/policy evaluation
• Did you enjoy the program? ≠ evaluation

16. Considerations
• Supporting under-represented groups is part of broader
strategy
• Addressing their barriers requires comprehensive approach
• Increased emphasis on skills as “means to the end”
• Equip intermediaries (career practitioners, educators, etc.) with
tools and knowledge to action skills development in a
meaningful way

17. LMIC Resources & Contact
• Canadian Online Job Posting Dashboard
• Earnings profiles: Trades and PSE
• Now of Work & Future of Work
steven.tobin@lmic-cimt.ca
www.lmic-cimt.ca