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03-23-05April 2017
PMO – portfolio management: bringing PMO to the next level!PMO – portfolio management: bringing PMO to the next level!
Presented by Jan Biets
Jan_biets@hotmail.com +32(0)477 32 90 11 Mechelen - Belgium
page 1 • view on planning
PMO to square²
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
PMO, portfolio composition and management
the next PMO service level, 2square
•Composition of roadmap
• Well balanced, dynamically managed roadmap, matching the
strategic ambitions of your <Organisation>
• and its consequences for the <Organisation>:
• Accurate investment budget
• Cash flow management (create funding for next investments)
• Opex & Capex management
•Interdependency management
• (key-) resources,
• (key-) functionalities (or modules);
• Financial (cash flow impact)
•Resources capacity management
•A set of data to enable the Management to make adequate decisions!
Target: bringing “PMO as a Service” to a next levelTarget: bringing “PMO as a Service” to a next level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 page 3 • View on PLANNING
• It is not the author’s intention to be aligned with whatever existing methodology,
nor framework;
• ‘projects’– in this presentation, can mean projects, programme, or portfolio
PMO-2square ForewordPMO-2square Foreword
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 4 • composing portfolio
Effectiveness
METRIC
S
KPI
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO
PRIORITISATI
ON
PMO
FINANCI
AL
PLANNING
CAPACITY
management
INTERDEPENDENCY
COMPANY
PROSPHERITY
Resources(Human)
REPORTING
Continuous
improvementREVIEW
PERFORMANC
E RETURN on INVESTMENT
REGULATORY
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
CASH
FLOW
COST
MANAGEMENT
BUDGE
T
RISK
management
TARGET
MI SSI
ON
OBJECTIVES
EXPECTED
COMMERCIAL
VALUE
TCO
NPV
AHP
REPUTATION management
OPTIMISATION
COST-BENEFIT
analysis
COMPOSITION
RANKING
URGENCY
PAYBACKtime
ZBB
COST of NON EXECUTION
STRATEGICFIT
COMMUNICATION
TRAINING
capex
OPEX
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
PMO-2square ScopePMO-2square Scope
page 5 • View on PLANNING
Basic principle:
•Listing project initiatives
•Ordering by nature of project (i.e. TCO (maintenance), end-of-life cycle, commercial (customer experience),
strategic fit, ...;
•For each type of project, define the ranking weight method;
•Compose roadmap;
•Assign the -role based- resources;
•Identify interdependencies;
•Execute projects
•Assess approach with Stakeholders
Compose
portfolio
GOAL
STRATEGIES Continuous
improvement
Income growing Business
productivity
Compose and
manage portfolio
FACTORS benefits opportunities risks costs
Cash flow
Cost reduction
Customer
experience&
satisfaction
Operational costs
reduction
Operational
process efficiency
Market share
increase
Customer retention
(loyalty)
Employees
competencies
Operations
excellence
Budget alignment
Budget overrun
Time delay
Project(product)
related risks
Cost of
implementation
Cost of human
resources
training
FACTORS
Cost
effectiveness
Portfolio /
roadmap
Which roadmap has the best –
balanced – impact on your
<Organisation>?
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
Precondition:
All project proposals are compliant
with <Organisation> strategy
PMO-2square Portfolio CompositionPMO-2square Portfolio Composition
page 6 • composing portfolio
Resources pool
Role based
Cost of resources
(Telenet & hiring)
Use hiring cost
as a metrics
Portfolio
/
roadmap
approved
Portfolio /
simulation 1
Portfolio /
simulation 2
Portfolio /
simulation 3
deliberation
noassigned
yes Assign to
maintenance
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project x
What is the best for <Organisation>
Portfolio /
executionApproved
To portfolio
execution·
deviations
yes
no
Resources
leveling
assessment
Reporting
against
baseline
Overview (with resp. baselines)
Portfolio Budget
(€)
Cost
(€)
Risk
(€)
Risk deviation
(%)
Cash flow
(€)
Cash flow (€)
deviation
NPV ROI
Portfolio 1 Budget 1 Cost 1 (-x%) Risk 1 +y% Cash flow 1 -cf €
Portfolio 2 Budget 2 Cost 2(+y%) Risk 2 -z% Cash flow 2 +cf €
Portfolio 3 Budget 3 Cost 3 (-z%) Risk 3 +x% Cash flow 3 -cf €
What is most
preferable outcome
for your
organisation?
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 1PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 1
page 7 • composing portfolio
Sort the List by
Sort Method
project
budget (k€)
cash flow
(k€)
capex (k€) opex (k€) risk nbr mandays resources(# FTE) 3
project 10 9310 356 898 321 15% 10 000 26,15  
project 11 5309 327 1109 414 85% 75 000 16,23  
project 29 10551 287 688 256 2% 25 000 36,76  
project 4 4959 261 815 313 50% 2 350 19,00  
project 8 3512 192 901 321 50% 2 350 18,29  
project 15 3946 188 1005 389 45% 20 000 20,99  
project 22 3588 186 939 358 5% 15 000 19,29  
project 5 4338 184 810 273 12% 15 000 23,58  
project 14 5310 164 802 276 5% 15 000 32,38  
project 27 4225 151 637 185 50% 10 000 27,98  
project 12 3853 139 868 317 50% 25 000 27,72  
project 26 3003 137 833 285 85% 50 000 21,92  
portfolio composition simulation
klein naargroot groot naar laag
ranking portfolio candidates
Draft an overview with –some- key metrics for each project:
•Budget,
•(organisation’s) impact area,
•forecasted profit, cash flow
•business growth,
•cost reduction, cost of non-execution (of the project),
•market %-share,
•number of (project-)resources, number of ‘man’-days
•capex, opex impact,
•npv, cas,
•risk %(€) related to the project initiative,
•urgency, regulatory,
•and other typical key data, helping to compose the most beneficial portfolio for your organisation.
In the above show-case exhibit, the ranking to compose a portfolio is set on ‘cash flow’
generated by each project. The tool will limit the number of selected projects up to the
maximum budget. You can simulate the outcome of several different portfolio compositions,
up to the most expedient outcome for your organisation.
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 2PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 2
page 8 • composing portfolio
ranking portfolio candidates
Sort the List by
Sort Method
project
budget (k€)
cash flow
(k€)
capex (k€) opex (k€) risk nbr mandays resources(# FTE)
project 10 9310 356 898 321 15% 10 000 26,15
project 11 5309 327 1109 414 85% 75 000 16,23
project 29 10551 287 688 256 2% 25 000 36,76
project 4 4959 261 815 313 50% 2 350 19,00
project 8 3512 192 901 321 50% 2 350 18,29
project 15 3946 188 1005 389 45% 20 000 20,99
project 22 3588 186 939 358 5% 15 000 19,29
project 5 4338 184 810 273 12% 15 000 23,58
project 14 5310 164 802 276 5% 15 000 32,38
project 27 4225 151 637 185 50% 10 000 27,98
project 12 3853 139 868 317 50% 25 000 27,72
project 26 3003 137 833 285 85% 50 000 21,92
project 16 4931 135 716 265 50% 5 000 36,53
project 17 4278 134 843 362 10% 2 350 31,92
project 9 3081 124 980 366 10% 50 000 24,85
project 21 3468 114 734 268 12% 25 000 30,42
project 23 2836 103 775 275 45% 20 000 27,53
project 7 2815 103 811 295 45% 5 000 27,33
project 2 3110 101 772 265 15% 20 000 30,80
project 6 3604 99 591 112 5% 20 000 36,40
project 25 3279 94 689 236 15% 2 350 34,88
project 13 2231 91 946 339 12% 17 500 24,52
project 1 2356 90 878 300 10% 15 000 26,18
project 3 2353 84 1018 500 85% 5 000 28,01
project 18 2037 81 811 286 15% 50 000 25,15
project 28 2193 74 754 281 65% 75 000 29,64
project 19 1574 74 854 320 85% 10 000 21,27
project 24 1866 55 745 293 50% 5 000 33,92
project 20 1583 55 811 299 50% 75 000 28,77
sum 109 499 4 183 24 033 8 770 0,36 666 900 27,19
min 1 574 55 591 112 2% 2 350 16,23
max 10 551 356 1 109 500 85% 75 000 36,76
gemid 3 776 144 566 151 36% 22 997 27,19
available investment budget 3
2018
cash flow 4 183€
budget 83 313€ 90 027
capex 15 164€ 16 527
opex 8 770€ 5 916
mandays 666 900€ 412 050
resources 469€ 27
risk tbd
portfolio composition simulation
klein naargroot groot naar laag
List with all candidate project
member;
In this example:
Available investment budget:
€ 9,000k
Main filter on:
”cash flow” maximiser
Outcome:
List with all projects (up to max
investment budget) creating the
projected ‘cash flow’ outcome
after project realisation;
Also some other financial metrics
are summed:
•capex,
•opex,
•number of (project-) mandays
•number of resources,
•risk (€)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio Composition bPMO-2square Portfolio Composition b
page 9 • composing portfolio
Some outputs, and benefits:
Based on the portfolio, simulate the best budget outcome (each portfolio composition has a specific
resulting impact (i.e. balancing investments, costs, opex, capex, and Business Growth, blocking or critical
interdependencies, Customers experience, profitability, window of opportunity, strategic fit,...)
This exercise will help to take the best well thought decisions
What composition will generate the most effective outcome for <Organisation>;
Improving the ‘predictability’ of the budget (FY- based) : capex, opex, Cash flow, profit (due to impact of
launched new products & services, cost reduction), aligning staff (hiring & firing) requirements (role based)
Optimising of ‘resources pool’ is a potential great advantage;
In case of a structural ‘surplus capacity’ of resources (role based), a phasing out could be considered;
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselinesPMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines
page 10 • composing portfolio
interdependencies Portfolio
/
roadmap
Project 1
Project 2
Project X
reported deviations due to project
Σbudget
Σcashflow
Σprogress
ΣNPV
ΣROI
ΣECV
ΣCAS
Σother portfolio
characteristics*
What is the best
for <Organisation>
Portfolio /
execution
ApprovedImpact
severety
low
medium
high
critical
· (thus, project ¶x ·
, ¶portfolio
·
Define
required
actions for
remediations
Go & kill
Replace project ·
in portfolio
Resources pool
Role based
Overview (with resp. baselines)
Portfolio Budget
(€)
Cost
(€)
Risk
(€)
Risk deviation
(%)
Cash flow
(€)
Cash flow (€)
deviation
NPV ROI
Portfolio 1 Budget 1 Cost 1 (-x%) Risk 1 +y% Cash flow 1 -cf €
Portfolio 2 Budget 2 Cost 2(+y%) Risk 2 -z% Cash flow 2 +cf €
Portfolio 3 Budget 3 Cost 3 (-z%) Risk 3 +x% Cash flow 3 -cf €
Assessment for ‘deviations’ could also be reversed (thus, project ‘x’ reports
deviations, what is the impact on what ‘portfolio characteristics’
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines bPMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines b
page 11 • composing portfolio
Abbreviations & clarifications:
•ECV : expected commercial value
•CAS : capital amortisation schedule (system)
*: Other portfolio baselines:
•‘progress: may affect
• i) window of opportunity,
• ii) interdependencies,
• iii) budget spending FY, and
• iv) key resources availability (from or to other project staffing)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square portfolio composition ranking metricsPMO-2square portfolio composition ranking metrics
page 12 • composing portfolio
(a) ROI-return on investment
(b) NPV-nett present value
(c) ECV-expected commercial value
(d) AHP-analytic hierarchy process , note sticks “gele papiertjes”(“yellow papers”)
(e) CAS-Capital amortisation schedule (alternative for ‘NPV’)
(f) EAA-Equivalent Annual Annuity Method
(g) URG-urgency
(h) pay back time
(i) regulatory
(j) risk on failure
(k) cashflow (or cash cow) generator
(l) window of (commercial) opportunity
(m) Multiplicative calculation of benefits, which is assumed to provide accurate prioritisation and is used as the
benchmark;
(n) Weighted additive calculation of benefits;
(o) Partial inclusion of variables: 1, 2 or 3 variables included ;
(p) Ranking projects considering project benefits but not costs ;
(q) Errors in measurement: normally distributed errors in all variables, with coefficients of variation of 10, 20 or 30 per
cent in each case;
(r) Random project prioritisation.
(s) effectiveness of proposed portfolio (total impact of proposed portfolio composition)
(t) ZBB-Zero-Based Budgeting/Risk
(u) TCO-total cost of ownership; out phasing technology, end-of life cycle management, increasing maintenance costs,
expensive maintenance contract
(v) CRM-“Company’s” reputation management (I assume, always top prio!)
w) monte carlo principle (probabilistic approach)
(x) RoE-return on equity
(y) CBA-cost benefit analysis
(z) Euth-Expected utility theory
(aa) project matrix-ranking projects based on weighing factors (to be defined)
(ab) cost of not executing the project
(ac) multiple objective optimisation approach
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio composition rankingPMO-2square Portfolio composition ranking
page 13 • composing portfolio
criteria Strategic
fit
urgency (%)-of
sales from
new
products
Reduce
operational
costs
(%)
Improve
customer
loyalty(%)
RoI
(x%)
x Weighted
total
weight 25% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 100%
Project 3 25% 18% 15% 5% 8% 10% 4% 85%
Project 2 22% 16% 10% 6% 4% 9% 2% 69%
Project 1 20% 10% 15% 12% 5% 3% -% 65%
Project 5 …%
Project 4
Project x
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
PMO-2square correlations between ranking metricsPMO-2square correlations between ranking metrics
• Investment – cash flow : JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Vol. 51,
No. 4, Aug. 2016, pp. 1135–1164 COPYRIGHT 2016, MICHAEL G.
FOSTER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON,
SEATTLE, WA 98195 doi:10.1017/S002210901600065X
Investment and Cash Flow: New Evidence
Jonathan Lewellen and Katharina Lewellen
page 14 • composing portfolio
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Capacity managementPMO-2square Capacity management
page 15 • composing portfolio
•Purpose:
•optimising the total resources capacity
•disposal of
• the right skills,
• experience,
•number of resources,
•levelling the balance <employees> and hired staff;
•use “day rate” as a management metric
•Managing the resource cost.
•Basic conditions:
•Role based resources overview
•next step / further development :
• role based (or skills),
• daily rate, ànd
• level of seniority
•Starting position:
•approved project list (at least with structured (high level) planning, in order to define the resource capacity:
• roles,
• required # man-days (or allocation %),
• starting date
•Allocate of role based resources on projects
•Surplus capacity can be allocated on ‘maintenance’ tasks;
•Interdependencies must be clearly defined
• both for planning (deliverables)
• assigned resources (role based)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 16 • composing portfolio
PMO-2square capacity managementPMO-2square capacity management
Lack of <business analyst> resources
in order to match the required capacity
for executing the proposed portfolio.
Consequence:
planning will not be met
Surplus of <business analyst>
resources in order to match the
required capacity
Consequence:
Unnecessary cost (non-cost efficiency)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio capacity management toolingPMO-2square Portfolio capacity management tooling
page 17 • composing portfolio
Role based staffing alignment
:
First-
Project brief / charter:
High level planning, with staffing requirements (role, and
maturity, skills based)
- number of (role based) FTE’s
- level of competency
- timing when resources are required (HL planning)
Secondly-
‘catalogue’ available role, and skill maturity based FTE within the
organisation
Prepare ‘sufficient detailed’ planning, with staffing requirements
(role based)
- number of (role based) FTE’s
- level of competency
- timing when resources are required (HL planning)
Analyse and notify the consequences on portfolio level:
•Re-schedule (re-order) the priority of your roadmap due to resource restrictions
•Hire additional staff
•Define other mitigations
Some useful tooling to be considered
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square resource management metricPMO-2square resource management metric
page 18 • composing portfolio
.
Evolution Avg day rate : ¶programmer µ
q1-16 q2-16 q3-16 q4-16 q1-17 q2-17 q3 17
Rationale:
Follow up of contract costs of (IT) staff, and potentially re-negotiate contracts;
•Must be role based
•Must be skill based (experience/maturity level)
In case of increasing contract costs, it could have impact on project budget;
This chart will help to show and understand the evolution of average hiring costs of IT staff.
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square interdependency managementPMO-2square interdependency management
page 19 • composing portfolio
Red : incoming interdependency
Green : outgoing interdependency
¶deliverablesµcan be named: ´interdependency·-chart
Rationale:
• Based on real project planning(i.e. MS Project,
Primavera, Artemis,e.g.);
• Identify the interdependencies(outgoing and
receiving);
• Manage = communication
• Impact can be important on:
• resourcing (also cost involved)
• missed window op opportunity
• outcome of portfolio
•
Interdependency management
In support of ¶capacity managementµ
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
QA
training
staff
innovationPM skills EVA
Employee
satisfaction
cost
prediction
KISS
efficiency
innovation
policy
PM
methodology
roles &
responsibility
product
management
re-use /
template
processes
performance
(improvemen
t)
project
management
cost overrun margin % Cash flow
FINANCIAL
perspective
CUSTOMER’s
perspective
Internal
business&process
perspective
People,learning,
growth
perspective
tools
+
Denk-
tank+
investment
+
correlation
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 21 • composing portfolio
Other considerations ( used as prioritisation criteria)
Project-10
Project-21
Project-13
Project-4
Project-9
Sustaining category
Project-26
Project-18
Project-3
Project-14
Project-5
Cost- cutting category
Project-1
Project-6
Project-7
Project-11
Project-2
New revenue category
For each category of portfolio project,
there is a set of
selection criteria
Note:
Without doubt, per type of project, a (set of) prioritisation assessments will be appropriate to come to a balanced portfolio in order
to suit Stakeholders.
Some specials:
To compose an outstanding portfolio, we must consider the application of ‘multiple objective optimisation’ principle
With this approach, we can compose, and continuously manage the portfolio with the most impact on our strategy.
Other tools can be ‘Kelly Criteria’, “Grey System Theory” to benefit and focus on best output (value for money)
The area over which benefits would be generated
The average benefit per unit area
The number of businesses or individuals who would benefit
The average benefit per business or individual
The improvement in environmental values resulting from an environmental project
The probability of project success (1 – probability of failure due to factors such as “climate,
politics or technical failure”)
PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 22 • composing portfolio
• Are your resources allocated to the most important work?
• Are you allocating the right amount of resources in new business investments versus keeping the older, mission-critical
processes up and running?
• Do you have capacity to do all the work on your plate for the coming year?
• When new work comes up during the year,can you identify the previously approved work that will no longer be completed?
• When should you stop supporting old stuff and make the investment in new stuff?
• What portfolio compostion has the best expected outcome(budget spending(FY), cashflow, opex, capex, expected profit,
impact on number of Customers(growth, retention,« ), spending per Customer,«
•
Some checkpoints for portfolio assessment
PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
page 23 • composing portfolio
Preferred approach is to use the
ISO 31000 'Risk management – Principles and guidelines',
Portfolio risk management includes processes that identify, analyse, respond to, track, and
control any risks that would prevent the portfolio from achieving its business objectives.
These processes should include reviews of project-level risks with negative implications for
the portfolio, ensuring that the project manager has a responsible risk mitigation plan.
Additionally, it is important to do a consolidated risk assessment for the portfolio overall, to
determine whether it is within the threshold set by the organization.
Since portfolios and their environments are dynamic, managers should review and update
their portfolio risk management plans on a regular basis throughout the portfolio lifecycle.
Identifying portfolio risks starts with an evaluation of the specific project portfolio
environment:
•What business decision criteria have been established?
•What working assumptions regarding the organization's current business processes and
decision points might increase risk for the portfolio?
•Managers should refine this evaluation iteratively, as they plan, assess, and manage their
portfolio management approach.
•What constitutes a portfolio risk? Here are some examples:
• Project inter-dependencies within the portfolio
• Limited resource capacity / capability versus substantial demand
• Changes in business strategy / business opportunities
• A large percentage of high-risk projects within the portfolio
• Business processes that conflict with portfolio management practices
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017
PMO-2square Earned Schedule conceptPMO-2square Earned Schedule concept
page 24 • composing portfolio
The ES idea is a simple one: identify the time at which the amount of earned value (EV) accrued
should have been earned. By determining this time, time-based indicators can be formed to
provide schedule variance and performance efficiency
management information.
The figure below illustrates how the ES measure is obtained. Projecting the cumulative EV onto
the PV curve (i.e., the PMB), as shown by the diagram, determines where planned value (PV)
equals the EV accrued. This intersection point identifies the time that amount of EV should have
been earned in accordance with the schedule.
The vertical line from the point on the PMB to the time axis determines the “earned” portion of
the schedule.
The duration from the beginning of
the project to the intersection of the
time axis is the amount of earned
schedule (ES).
Fairly new project management concept
Powerful tool to forecast new end-date of project
(in case of deviation from baseline)
Impact on portfolio success can be measured
(both €, and timing )
Potentially, an update of the portfolio can be re-
considered
• Kill project
• Kill and replace project
• Increase the outcome (success rate)
Source: http://www.earnedschedule.com
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 25 • composing portfolio
portfolio
PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
pre-set
•List with ‘candidate
members” of roadmap
set
•composition roadmap
Metrics, analytic &
assessment data
Effectiviness impact on
<Company> strategy
execution
•defined roadmap
assess
•efficiency
report
•effectivine
ss
observe
•predictabilit
y
project Project
owner/sponsor
Executive mgt
Metrics & baselines, and KPI, KGI
•Budget, spent versus baseline (forecast),
budget at completion;
•Schedule variance
•Earned value
Identify, notify
•Deviations with reference to defined
expectations (metrics, budget, effectiveness
assess
Recovery-
mode
actions
•Remediation
Kill (stop)
actions
•Lessons learned
PortfolioPortfolio
compositioncomposition
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
pre-set
•List with ‘candidate
members” of roadmap
set
•composition roadmap
Resource
overview, skills,
maturity,
internal/external
Resource capacity
assessment
execution
•Assign required
resources
assess
•Project
progress
report
•Deviations
observe
•Optimisatio
n of
resources
Metrics & baselines;
•Excess staffing:
• Temporary : assign to other projects,
or maintenance tasks
• Long term : fire, redundant
•Shortage staffing:
• Temporary: hiring
• Long term: recruiting
Identify, notify
•Deviations with reference to defined
expectations (metrics, budget)
assess
Recovery-
mode
actions
•Remediation
Kill (stop)
actions
•Lessons learned
Condition: a well-defined project
schedule for each (candidate) project
PortfolioPortfolio
compositioncomposition
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
pre-set
•List with ‘candidate
members” of roadmap
set
•composition roadmap
Identify and
document
interdependencies
Interdependency
assessment
Execution
•Defined roadmap
report
•Project
progress
•Project
deliverables
assess
•Deviations;
•Impact&consequ
ences;
observe
•Optimisation of
roadmap
Metrics & baselines;
•Excess staffing:
• Temporary : assign to other projects,
or maintenance tasks
• Long term : “fire”, redundant
•Shortage staffing:
• Temporary: hiring
• Long term: recruiting
Identify, notify
•Deviations with reference to defined
expectations (metrics, budget)
assess
Recovery-
mode
actions
•Remediation
Kill (stop)
actions
•Lessons learned
Condition: a well-defined project
schedule for each (candidate) project
PortfolioPortfolio
compositioncomposition
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
On simple request (jan_biets@hotmail.com) an excel tool is available to
assess and manage a balanced project portfolio, taken into
consideration:
•Your strategic goals, and
•a sound financial –investment- management
•Clear forecast on:
• impact on business targets;
• Expected cash flow (due to launch new applications, services,
business, cost reduction);
• Expected market growth (and market %-share);
• Growth Metrics for Business, Cumulative Average Growth Rate
CAGR
• Impact on opex;
• Required labour (cost) to staff the project organisation, and
impact of effectiveness of the project outcome;
• And many other key metrics to manage your business.
ToolingTooling
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” - classificationCandidate portfolio “member” - classification
characteristic of investment
(classification)
description
Project candidate
PPM
capacity expansion
projects of capacity expansion of the current
product line
Project a
new products investments aiming the release of new products
Project b
cost reduction
investments whose implementation results in
production cost reduction through the change in
production cycles, the use of less items
Project c
adminstrative
investments without assets not related to
informatics, manufacturing , nor logistics
Project d
environmental control
investments whose implementation aims to meet
requirements for environental protection
Project e
informatics
investment in software, hardware and other
computer assets
Project f
industrial safety / security
investments aiming to guarantee the operational
safey, and to safeguard the fixed assets and safety
security
Project g
quality investment in the improvement of product quality
Project h
end of life
investment aiming the substitution of fixed assets
due to wearing or obsolence
Project i
viability preliminary studies
investment destined to the execution of viability
studies of new businesses that will be accounted on
deferred assets
Project x
modernisation
investments in industrial autmation and/or
substitution of items with obsolete technology
Project y
regulatory on demand of legislator
Project z
page 30 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” - classificationCandidate portfolio “member” - classification
domein Sponsor
Project candidate
PPM
HR <name>, function
Project a
Finance purchasing & supply chain <name>, function
Project b
Information technology <name>, function
Project c
Legal <name>, function
Project d
Strategy & corporate development <name>, function
Project e
Sales and customer operations <name>, function
Project f
Transformation <name>, function
Project g
General management <name>, function
Project h
Sales and customer operations <name>, function
Project i
Telenet Business <name>, function
Project x
Technology & operations <name>, function
Project y
Residential marketing <name>, function
Project z
page 31 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 1/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 1/5
defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual
budget (planned) € approved yes / no actual cost
prioritisation ranking
regulatory (y/n) Yes / no
cash flow (planned) € expected actual impact
opex (planned) € expected impact
capex (planned) € expected impact
NPV (planned) € expected
ROI (planned) € expected
cost of not-execution € expected
ECV (planned) € expected
revenues (estimated) € expected impact
profits (expected) € expected impact
page 32 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 2/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 2/5
defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual
Growth Metrics for Business,
Cumulative Average Growth Rate
CAGR % expected impact
CAS
€ expected
pay back time (months)
€ expected
break even
€ expected
TCO
€ expected
number of Customers impacted
(estimated) # estimated actual
re-use, recuperation (%, €)
€ / %
market share (impact)
€ / %
CBA
€
interdependencies identified
#, criticality
AHP
EAA
URG
L-M-H
page 33 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 3/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 3/5
defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual
(ZBB)
CRM
<other>
MonteCarlo
risk on failure (%, or €)
€ / %
window of (commercial)
opportunity L – M - H
RoE
EUTH
project matrix ranking
multiple objective optimisation
page 34 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 4/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 4/5
role € # # mandays
resources budget estimation (HL) € (Σ) # (Σ) # (Σ)
resources cost (S of rows below)
PM (agile - waterfall) € # #
architect € # #
db admin € # #
analyst € # #
developper € # #
testing € # #
other profiles / skills € # #
page 35 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Portfolio – capacity management: inventory resourcesPortfolio – capacity management: inventory resources
resource (name) function level availability dayrate status
<name1> Functional analyst Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name2>
Developper Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name3>
Db admin Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name4>
Architect Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name5>
Software solution Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name6>
Pm Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name7>
Pm agile (scrum master) Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name8>
Test Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name9>
Audit Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name10>
Technical analyst Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name11>
Developper java Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name12>
Developper .net Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
<name13>
Developper C++ Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired
page 36 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Metrics explained – 1/3Metrics explained – 1/3
defined metrics high level description
budget (planned)
Forecasted budget for project realisation (all-in)
prioritisation
regulatory (y/n) regulatory
cash flow (planned)
amount of cahflow the project will generate (yearly) after launch
opex (planned)
amount of opex the project , once launched
capex (planned)
amount of capex the project, once the project is launched
NPV (planned)
net present value
ROI (planned)
return on investment
cost of not-execution
what is -combined-cost if project is not done
ECV (planned)
expected commercial value
revenues (estimated)
what revenue will be generated with the project
profits (expected)
what are the expected profits when the project is launched
page 37 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Metrics explained – 2/3Metrics explained – 2/3
defined metrics high level description
Growth Metrics for Business,
Cumulative Average Growth Rate
CAGR https://www.business-case-analysis.com/growth-metrics.html
CAS capital amortisation schedule
pay back time (months) pay back time
break even
TCO total cost of ownership
number of Customers impacted
(estimated) how many customers are concerned
re-use, recuperation (%, €)
market share (impact)
what is the % or € investment, of the project, for another project, or application
CBA cost benefit analysis
interdependencies identified indication of complexity, importance
AHP analytic hierarchy process
EAA
https://www.business-case-analysis.com/growth-metrics.html
URG
Urgency assessment to realise the project (outcome)
page 38 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Metrics explained – 3/3Metrics explained – 3/3
defined metrics high level description
(ZBB) zero based budgeting
CRM company's reputation
Monte Carlo probabilistic approach
risk on failure (%, or €) risk on failure
window of (commercial)
opportunity
RoE return on equity
EUTH expected utility theory
project matrix ranking weighing factors
multiple objective optimisation
page 39 • PMO, the Next Level
PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017
Time is up.
Much more to talk about this interesting topic….
Questions ?
Linkedin Jan Biets - Jan_biets@hotmail.com - +32(0)477 329011
page 40 • PMO, the Next Level
? ?????? ? ?

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PMO, 2square

  • 1. 03-23-05April 2017 PMO – portfolio management: bringing PMO to the next level!PMO – portfolio management: bringing PMO to the next level! Presented by Jan Biets Jan_biets@hotmail.com +32(0)477 32 90 11 Mechelen - Belgium page 1 • view on planning PMO to square²
  • 2. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 PMO, portfolio composition and management the next PMO service level, 2square •Composition of roadmap • Well balanced, dynamically managed roadmap, matching the strategic ambitions of your <Organisation> • and its consequences for the <Organisation>: • Accurate investment budget • Cash flow management (create funding for next investments) • Opex & Capex management •Interdependency management • (key-) resources, • (key-) functionalities (or modules); • Financial (cash flow impact) •Resources capacity management •A set of data to enable the Management to make adequate decisions! Target: bringing “PMO as a Service” to a next levelTarget: bringing “PMO as a Service” to a next level
  • 3. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 page 3 • View on PLANNING • It is not the author’s intention to be aligned with whatever existing methodology, nor framework; • ‘projects’– in this presentation, can mean projects, programme, or portfolio PMO-2square ForewordPMO-2square Foreword
  • 4. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 4 • composing portfolio Effectiveness METRIC S KPI INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO PRIORITISATI ON PMO FINANCI AL PLANNING CAPACITY management INTERDEPENDENCY COMPANY PROSPHERITY Resources(Human) REPORTING Continuous improvementREVIEW PERFORMANC E RETURN on INVESTMENT REGULATORY PROJECT MANAGEMENT CASH FLOW COST MANAGEMENT BUDGE T RISK management TARGET MI SSI ON OBJECTIVES EXPECTED COMMERCIAL VALUE TCO NPV AHP REPUTATION management OPTIMISATION COST-BENEFIT analysis COMPOSITION RANKING URGENCY PAYBACKtime ZBB COST of NON EXECUTION STRATEGICFIT COMMUNICATION TRAINING capex OPEX
  • 5. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 PMO-2square ScopePMO-2square Scope page 5 • View on PLANNING Basic principle: •Listing project initiatives •Ordering by nature of project (i.e. TCO (maintenance), end-of-life cycle, commercial (customer experience), strategic fit, ...; •For each type of project, define the ranking weight method; •Compose roadmap; •Assign the -role based- resources; •Identify interdependencies; •Execute projects •Assess approach with Stakeholders Compose portfolio GOAL STRATEGIES Continuous improvement Income growing Business productivity Compose and manage portfolio FACTORS benefits opportunities risks costs Cash flow Cost reduction Customer experience& satisfaction Operational costs reduction Operational process efficiency Market share increase Customer retention (loyalty) Employees competencies Operations excellence Budget alignment Budget overrun Time delay Project(product) related risks Cost of implementation Cost of human resources training FACTORS Cost effectiveness Portfolio / roadmap Which roadmap has the best – balanced – impact on your <Organisation>?
  • 6. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 Precondition: All project proposals are compliant with <Organisation> strategy PMO-2square Portfolio CompositionPMO-2square Portfolio Composition page 6 • composing portfolio Resources pool Role based Cost of resources (Telenet & hiring) Use hiring cost as a metrics Portfolio / roadmap approved Portfolio / simulation 1 Portfolio / simulation 2 Portfolio / simulation 3 deliberation noassigned yes Assign to maintenance Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 Project 5 Project 6 Project 7 Project x What is the best for <Organisation> Portfolio / executionApproved To portfolio execution· deviations yes no Resources leveling assessment Reporting against baseline Overview (with resp. baselines) Portfolio Budget (€) Cost (€) Risk (€) Risk deviation (%) Cash flow (€) Cash flow (€) deviation NPV ROI Portfolio 1 Budget 1 Cost 1 (-x%) Risk 1 +y% Cash flow 1 -cf € Portfolio 2 Budget 2 Cost 2(+y%) Risk 2 -z% Cash flow 2 +cf € Portfolio 3 Budget 3 Cost 3 (-z%) Risk 3 +x% Cash flow 3 -cf € What is most preferable outcome for your organisation?
  • 7. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 1PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 1 page 7 • composing portfolio Sort the List by Sort Method project budget (k€) cash flow (k€) capex (k€) opex (k€) risk nbr mandays resources(# FTE) 3 project 10 9310 356 898 321 15% 10 000 26,15   project 11 5309 327 1109 414 85% 75 000 16,23   project 29 10551 287 688 256 2% 25 000 36,76   project 4 4959 261 815 313 50% 2 350 19,00   project 8 3512 192 901 321 50% 2 350 18,29   project 15 3946 188 1005 389 45% 20 000 20,99   project 22 3588 186 939 358 5% 15 000 19,29   project 5 4338 184 810 273 12% 15 000 23,58   project 14 5310 164 802 276 5% 15 000 32,38   project 27 4225 151 637 185 50% 10 000 27,98   project 12 3853 139 868 317 50% 25 000 27,72   project 26 3003 137 833 285 85% 50 000 21,92   portfolio composition simulation klein naargroot groot naar laag ranking portfolio candidates Draft an overview with –some- key metrics for each project: •Budget, •(organisation’s) impact area, •forecasted profit, cash flow •business growth, •cost reduction, cost of non-execution (of the project), •market %-share, •number of (project-)resources, number of ‘man’-days •capex, opex impact, •npv, cas, •risk %(€) related to the project initiative, •urgency, regulatory, •and other typical key data, helping to compose the most beneficial portfolio for your organisation. In the above show-case exhibit, the ranking to compose a portfolio is set on ‘cash flow’ generated by each project. The tool will limit the number of selected projects up to the maximum budget. You can simulate the outcome of several different portfolio compositions, up to the most expedient outcome for your organisation.
  • 8. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 2PMO-2square Portfolio composition simulation 2 page 8 • composing portfolio ranking portfolio candidates Sort the List by Sort Method project budget (k€) cash flow (k€) capex (k€) opex (k€) risk nbr mandays resources(# FTE) project 10 9310 356 898 321 15% 10 000 26,15 project 11 5309 327 1109 414 85% 75 000 16,23 project 29 10551 287 688 256 2% 25 000 36,76 project 4 4959 261 815 313 50% 2 350 19,00 project 8 3512 192 901 321 50% 2 350 18,29 project 15 3946 188 1005 389 45% 20 000 20,99 project 22 3588 186 939 358 5% 15 000 19,29 project 5 4338 184 810 273 12% 15 000 23,58 project 14 5310 164 802 276 5% 15 000 32,38 project 27 4225 151 637 185 50% 10 000 27,98 project 12 3853 139 868 317 50% 25 000 27,72 project 26 3003 137 833 285 85% 50 000 21,92 project 16 4931 135 716 265 50% 5 000 36,53 project 17 4278 134 843 362 10% 2 350 31,92 project 9 3081 124 980 366 10% 50 000 24,85 project 21 3468 114 734 268 12% 25 000 30,42 project 23 2836 103 775 275 45% 20 000 27,53 project 7 2815 103 811 295 45% 5 000 27,33 project 2 3110 101 772 265 15% 20 000 30,80 project 6 3604 99 591 112 5% 20 000 36,40 project 25 3279 94 689 236 15% 2 350 34,88 project 13 2231 91 946 339 12% 17 500 24,52 project 1 2356 90 878 300 10% 15 000 26,18 project 3 2353 84 1018 500 85% 5 000 28,01 project 18 2037 81 811 286 15% 50 000 25,15 project 28 2193 74 754 281 65% 75 000 29,64 project 19 1574 74 854 320 85% 10 000 21,27 project 24 1866 55 745 293 50% 5 000 33,92 project 20 1583 55 811 299 50% 75 000 28,77 sum 109 499 4 183 24 033 8 770 0,36 666 900 27,19 min 1 574 55 591 112 2% 2 350 16,23 max 10 551 356 1 109 500 85% 75 000 36,76 gemid 3 776 144 566 151 36% 22 997 27,19 available investment budget 3 2018 cash flow 4 183€ budget 83 313€ 90 027 capex 15 164€ 16 527 opex 8 770€ 5 916 mandays 666 900€ 412 050 resources 469€ 27 risk tbd portfolio composition simulation klein naargroot groot naar laag List with all candidate project member; In this example: Available investment budget: € 9,000k Main filter on: ”cash flow” maximiser Outcome: List with all projects (up to max investment budget) creating the projected ‘cash flow’ outcome after project realisation; Also some other financial metrics are summed: •capex, •opex, •number of (project-) mandays •number of resources, •risk (€)
  • 9. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio Composition bPMO-2square Portfolio Composition b page 9 • composing portfolio Some outputs, and benefits: Based on the portfolio, simulate the best budget outcome (each portfolio composition has a specific resulting impact (i.e. balancing investments, costs, opex, capex, and Business Growth, blocking or critical interdependencies, Customers experience, profitability, window of opportunity, strategic fit,...) This exercise will help to take the best well thought decisions What composition will generate the most effective outcome for <Organisation>; Improving the ‘predictability’ of the budget (FY- based) : capex, opex, Cash flow, profit (due to impact of launched new products & services, cost reduction), aligning staff (hiring & firing) requirements (role based) Optimising of ‘resources pool’ is a potential great advantage; In case of a structural ‘surplus capacity’ of resources (role based), a phasing out could be considered;
  • 10. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselinesPMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines page 10 • composing portfolio interdependencies Portfolio / roadmap Project 1 Project 2 Project X reported deviations due to project Σbudget Σcashflow Σprogress ΣNPV ΣROI ΣECV ΣCAS Σother portfolio characteristics* What is the best for <Organisation> Portfolio / execution ApprovedImpact severety low medium high critical · (thus, project ¶x · , ¶portfolio · Define required actions for remediations Go & kill Replace project · in portfolio Resources pool Role based Overview (with resp. baselines) Portfolio Budget (€) Cost (€) Risk (€) Risk deviation (%) Cash flow (€) Cash flow (€) deviation NPV ROI Portfolio 1 Budget 1 Cost 1 (-x%) Risk 1 +y% Cash flow 1 -cf € Portfolio 2 Budget 2 Cost 2(+y%) Risk 2 -z% Cash flow 2 +cf € Portfolio 3 Budget 3 Cost 3 (-z%) Risk 3 +x% Cash flow 3 -cf € Assessment for ‘deviations’ could also be reversed (thus, project ‘x’ reports deviations, what is the impact on what ‘portfolio characteristics’
  • 11. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines bPMO-2square Portfolio deviations from baselines b page 11 • composing portfolio Abbreviations & clarifications: •ECV : expected commercial value •CAS : capital amortisation schedule (system) *: Other portfolio baselines: •‘progress: may affect • i) window of opportunity, • ii) interdependencies, • iii) budget spending FY, and • iv) key resources availability (from or to other project staffing)
  • 12. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square portfolio composition ranking metricsPMO-2square portfolio composition ranking metrics page 12 • composing portfolio (a) ROI-return on investment (b) NPV-nett present value (c) ECV-expected commercial value (d) AHP-analytic hierarchy process , note sticks “gele papiertjes”(“yellow papers”) (e) CAS-Capital amortisation schedule (alternative for ‘NPV’) (f) EAA-Equivalent Annual Annuity Method (g) URG-urgency (h) pay back time (i) regulatory (j) risk on failure (k) cashflow (or cash cow) generator (l) window of (commercial) opportunity (m) Multiplicative calculation of benefits, which is assumed to provide accurate prioritisation and is used as the benchmark; (n) Weighted additive calculation of benefits; (o) Partial inclusion of variables: 1, 2 or 3 variables included ; (p) Ranking projects considering project benefits but not costs ; (q) Errors in measurement: normally distributed errors in all variables, with coefficients of variation of 10, 20 or 30 per cent in each case; (r) Random project prioritisation. (s) effectiveness of proposed portfolio (total impact of proposed portfolio composition) (t) ZBB-Zero-Based Budgeting/Risk (u) TCO-total cost of ownership; out phasing technology, end-of life cycle management, increasing maintenance costs, expensive maintenance contract (v) CRM-“Company’s” reputation management (I assume, always top prio!) w) monte carlo principle (probabilistic approach) (x) RoE-return on equity (y) CBA-cost benefit analysis (z) Euth-Expected utility theory (aa) project matrix-ranking projects based on weighing factors (to be defined) (ab) cost of not executing the project (ac) multiple objective optimisation approach
  • 13. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio composition rankingPMO-2square Portfolio composition ranking page 13 • composing portfolio criteria Strategic fit urgency (%)-of sales from new products Reduce operational costs (%) Improve customer loyalty(%) RoI (x%) x Weighted total weight 25% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 100% Project 3 25% 18% 15% 5% 8% 10% 4% 85% Project 2 22% 16% 10% 6% 4% 9% 2% 69% Project 1 20% 10% 15% 12% 5% 3% -% 65% Project 5 …% Project 4 Project x
  • 14. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 PMO-2square correlations between ranking metricsPMO-2square correlations between ranking metrics • Investment – cash flow : JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Vol. 51, No. 4, Aug. 2016, pp. 1135–1164 COPYRIGHT 2016, MICHAEL G. FOSTER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, WA 98195 doi:10.1017/S002210901600065X Investment and Cash Flow: New Evidence Jonathan Lewellen and Katharina Lewellen page 14 • composing portfolio
  • 15. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Capacity managementPMO-2square Capacity management page 15 • composing portfolio •Purpose: •optimising the total resources capacity •disposal of • the right skills, • experience, •number of resources, •levelling the balance <employees> and hired staff; •use “day rate” as a management metric •Managing the resource cost. •Basic conditions: •Role based resources overview •next step / further development : • role based (or skills), • daily rate, ànd • level of seniority •Starting position: •approved project list (at least with structured (high level) planning, in order to define the resource capacity: • roles, • required # man-days (or allocation %), • starting date •Allocate of role based resources on projects •Surplus capacity can be allocated on ‘maintenance’ tasks; •Interdependencies must be clearly defined • both for planning (deliverables) • assigned resources (role based)
  • 16. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 16 • composing portfolio PMO-2square capacity managementPMO-2square capacity management Lack of <business analyst> resources in order to match the required capacity for executing the proposed portfolio. Consequence: planning will not be met Surplus of <business analyst> resources in order to match the required capacity Consequence: Unnecessary cost (non-cost efficiency)
  • 17. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio capacity management toolingPMO-2square Portfolio capacity management tooling page 17 • composing portfolio Role based staffing alignment : First- Project brief / charter: High level planning, with staffing requirements (role, and maturity, skills based) - number of (role based) FTE’s - level of competency - timing when resources are required (HL planning) Secondly- ‘catalogue’ available role, and skill maturity based FTE within the organisation Prepare ‘sufficient detailed’ planning, with staffing requirements (role based) - number of (role based) FTE’s - level of competency - timing when resources are required (HL planning) Analyse and notify the consequences on portfolio level: •Re-schedule (re-order) the priority of your roadmap due to resource restrictions •Hire additional staff •Define other mitigations Some useful tooling to be considered
  • 18. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square resource management metricPMO-2square resource management metric page 18 • composing portfolio . Evolution Avg day rate : ¶programmer µ q1-16 q2-16 q3-16 q4-16 q1-17 q2-17 q3 17 Rationale: Follow up of contract costs of (IT) staff, and potentially re-negotiate contracts; •Must be role based •Must be skill based (experience/maturity level) In case of increasing contract costs, it could have impact on project budget; This chart will help to show and understand the evolution of average hiring costs of IT staff.
  • 19. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square interdependency managementPMO-2square interdependency management page 19 • composing portfolio Red : incoming interdependency Green : outgoing interdependency ¶deliverablesµcan be named: ´interdependency·-chart Rationale: • Based on real project planning(i.e. MS Project, Primavera, Artemis,e.g.); • Identify the interdependencies(outgoing and receiving); • Manage = communication • Impact can be important on: • resourcing (also cost involved) • missed window op opportunity • outcome of portfolio • Interdependency management In support of ¶capacity managementµ
  • 20. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 QA training staff innovationPM skills EVA Employee satisfaction cost prediction KISS efficiency innovation policy PM methodology roles & responsibility product management re-use / template processes performance (improvemen t) project management cost overrun margin % Cash flow FINANCIAL perspective CUSTOMER’s perspective Internal business&process perspective People,learning, growth perspective tools + Denk- tank+ investment + correlation
  • 21. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 21 • composing portfolio Other considerations ( used as prioritisation criteria) Project-10 Project-21 Project-13 Project-4 Project-9 Sustaining category Project-26 Project-18 Project-3 Project-14 Project-5 Cost- cutting category Project-1 Project-6 Project-7 Project-11 Project-2 New revenue category For each category of portfolio project, there is a set of selection criteria Note: Without doubt, per type of project, a (set of) prioritisation assessments will be appropriate to come to a balanced portfolio in order to suit Stakeholders. Some specials: To compose an outstanding portfolio, we must consider the application of ‘multiple objective optimisation’ principle With this approach, we can compose, and continuously manage the portfolio with the most impact on our strategy. Other tools can be ‘Kelly Criteria’, “Grey System Theory” to benefit and focus on best output (value for money) The area over which benefits would be generated The average benefit per unit area The number of businesses or individuals who would benefit The average benefit per business or individual The improvement in environmental values resulting from an environmental project The probability of project success (1 – probability of failure due to factors such as “climate, politics or technical failure”) PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
  • 22. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 22 • composing portfolio • Are your resources allocated to the most important work? • Are you allocating the right amount of resources in new business investments versus keeping the older, mission-critical processes up and running? • Do you have capacity to do all the work on your plate for the coming year? • When new work comes up during the year,can you identify the previously approved work that will no longer be completed? • When should you stop supporting old stuff and make the investment in new stuff? • What portfolio compostion has the best expected outcome(budget spending(FY), cashflow, opex, capex, expected profit, impact on number of Customers(growth, retention,« ), spending per Customer,« • Some checkpoints for portfolio assessment PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
  • 23. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k) page 23 • composing portfolio Preferred approach is to use the ISO 31000 'Risk management – Principles and guidelines', Portfolio risk management includes processes that identify, analyse, respond to, track, and control any risks that would prevent the portfolio from achieving its business objectives. These processes should include reviews of project-level risks with negative implications for the portfolio, ensuring that the project manager has a responsible risk mitigation plan. Additionally, it is important to do a consolidated risk assessment for the portfolio overall, to determine whether it is within the threshold set by the organization. Since portfolios and their environments are dynamic, managers should review and update their portfolio risk management plans on a regular basis throughout the portfolio lifecycle. Identifying portfolio risks starts with an evaluation of the specific project portfolio environment: •What business decision criteria have been established? •What working assumptions regarding the organization's current business processes and decision points might increase risk for the portfolio? •Managers should refine this evaluation iteratively, as they plan, assess, and manage their portfolio management approach. •What constitutes a portfolio risk? Here are some examples: • Project inter-dependencies within the portfolio • Limited resource capacity / capability versus substantial demand • Changes in business strategy / business opportunities • A large percentage of high-risk projects within the portfolio • Business processes that conflict with portfolio management practices
  • 24. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 PMO-2square Earned Schedule conceptPMO-2square Earned Schedule concept page 24 • composing portfolio The ES idea is a simple one: identify the time at which the amount of earned value (EV) accrued should have been earned. By determining this time, time-based indicators can be formed to provide schedule variance and performance efficiency management information. The figure below illustrates how the ES measure is obtained. Projecting the cumulative EV onto the PV curve (i.e., the PMB), as shown by the diagram, determines where planned value (PV) equals the EV accrued. This intersection point identifies the time that amount of EV should have been earned in accordance with the schedule. The vertical line from the point on the PMB to the time axis determines the “earned” portion of the schedule. The duration from the beginning of the project to the intersection of the time axis is the amount of earned schedule (ES). Fairly new project management concept Powerful tool to forecast new end-date of project (in case of deviation from baseline) Impact on portfolio success can be measured (both €, and timing ) Potentially, an update of the portfolio can be re- considered • Kill project • Kill and replace project • Increase the outcome (success rate) Source: http://www.earnedschedule.com
  • 25. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service Juni 2017 page 25 • composing portfolio portfolio PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)PMO-2square Portfolio risk management (iso 31k)
  • 26. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 pre-set •List with ‘candidate members” of roadmap set •composition roadmap Metrics, analytic & assessment data Effectiviness impact on <Company> strategy execution •defined roadmap assess •efficiency report •effectivine ss observe •predictabilit y project Project owner/sponsor Executive mgt Metrics & baselines, and KPI, KGI •Budget, spent versus baseline (forecast), budget at completion; •Schedule variance •Earned value Identify, notify •Deviations with reference to defined expectations (metrics, budget, effectiveness assess Recovery- mode actions •Remediation Kill (stop) actions •Lessons learned PortfolioPortfolio compositioncomposition
  • 27. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 pre-set •List with ‘candidate members” of roadmap set •composition roadmap Resource overview, skills, maturity, internal/external Resource capacity assessment execution •Assign required resources assess •Project progress report •Deviations observe •Optimisatio n of resources Metrics & baselines; •Excess staffing: • Temporary : assign to other projects, or maintenance tasks • Long term : fire, redundant •Shortage staffing: • Temporary: hiring • Long term: recruiting Identify, notify •Deviations with reference to defined expectations (metrics, budget) assess Recovery- mode actions •Remediation Kill (stop) actions •Lessons learned Condition: a well-defined project schedule for each (candidate) project PortfolioPortfolio compositioncomposition
  • 28. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 pre-set •List with ‘candidate members” of roadmap set •composition roadmap Identify and document interdependencies Interdependency assessment Execution •Defined roadmap report •Project progress •Project deliverables assess •Deviations; •Impact&consequ ences; observe •Optimisation of roadmap Metrics & baselines; •Excess staffing: • Temporary : assign to other projects, or maintenance tasks • Long term : “fire”, redundant •Shortage staffing: • Temporary: hiring • Long term: recruiting Identify, notify •Deviations with reference to defined expectations (metrics, budget) assess Recovery- mode actions •Remediation Kill (stop) actions •Lessons learned Condition: a well-defined project schedule for each (candidate) project PortfolioPortfolio compositioncomposition
  • 29. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 On simple request (jan_biets@hotmail.com) an excel tool is available to assess and manage a balanced project portfolio, taken into consideration: •Your strategic goals, and •a sound financial –investment- management •Clear forecast on: • impact on business targets; • Expected cash flow (due to launch new applications, services, business, cost reduction); • Expected market growth (and market %-share); • Growth Metrics for Business, Cumulative Average Growth Rate CAGR • Impact on opex; • Required labour (cost) to staff the project organisation, and impact of effectiveness of the project outcome; • And many other key metrics to manage your business. ToolingTooling
  • 30. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” - classificationCandidate portfolio “member” - classification characteristic of investment (classification) description Project candidate PPM capacity expansion projects of capacity expansion of the current product line Project a new products investments aiming the release of new products Project b cost reduction investments whose implementation results in production cost reduction through the change in production cycles, the use of less items Project c adminstrative investments without assets not related to informatics, manufacturing , nor logistics Project d environmental control investments whose implementation aims to meet requirements for environental protection Project e informatics investment in software, hardware and other computer assets Project f industrial safety / security investments aiming to guarantee the operational safey, and to safeguard the fixed assets and safety security Project g quality investment in the improvement of product quality Project h end of life investment aiming the substitution of fixed assets due to wearing or obsolence Project i viability preliminary studies investment destined to the execution of viability studies of new businesses that will be accounted on deferred assets Project x modernisation investments in industrial autmation and/or substitution of items with obsolete technology Project y regulatory on demand of legislator Project z page 30 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 31. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” - classificationCandidate portfolio “member” - classification domein Sponsor Project candidate PPM HR <name>, function Project a Finance purchasing & supply chain <name>, function Project b Information technology <name>, function Project c Legal <name>, function Project d Strategy & corporate development <name>, function Project e Sales and customer operations <name>, function Project f Transformation <name>, function Project g General management <name>, function Project h Sales and customer operations <name>, function Project i Telenet Business <name>, function Project x Technology & operations <name>, function Project y Residential marketing <name>, function Project z page 31 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 32. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 1/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 1/5 defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual budget (planned) € approved yes / no actual cost prioritisation ranking regulatory (y/n) Yes / no cash flow (planned) € expected actual impact opex (planned) € expected impact capex (planned) € expected impact NPV (planned) € expected ROI (planned) € expected cost of not-execution € expected ECV (planned) € expected revenues (estimated) € expected impact profits (expected) € expected impact page 32 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 33. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 2/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 2/5 defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual Growth Metrics for Business, Cumulative Average Growth Rate CAGR % expected impact CAS € expected pay back time (months) € expected break even € expected TCO € expected number of Customers impacted (estimated) # estimated actual re-use, recuperation (%, €) € / % market share (impact) € / % CBA € interdependencies identified #, criticality AHP EAA URG L-M-H page 33 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 34. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 3/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 3/5 defined metrics € , % , #, other projected actual (ZBB) CRM <other> MonteCarlo risk on failure (%, or €) € / % window of (commercial) opportunity L – M - H RoE EUTH project matrix ranking multiple objective optimisation page 34 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 35. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 4/5Candidate portfolio “member” – metrics overview 4/5 role € # # mandays resources budget estimation (HL) € (Σ) # (Σ) # (Σ) resources cost (S of rows below) PM (agile - waterfall) € # # architect € # # db admin € # # analyst € # # developper € # # testing € # # other profiles / skills € # # page 35 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 36. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Portfolio – capacity management: inventory resourcesPortfolio – capacity management: inventory resources resource (name) function level availability dayrate status <name1> Functional analyst Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name2> Developper Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name3> Db admin Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name4> Architect Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name5> Software solution Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name6> Pm Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name7> Pm agile (scrum master) Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name8> Test Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name9> Audit Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name10> Technical analyst Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name11> Developper java Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name12> Developper .net Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired <name13> Developper C++ Junior – mid – senior - expert 25 – 50 – 75 – 100% € Employee - hired page 36 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 37. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Metrics explained – 1/3Metrics explained – 1/3 defined metrics high level description budget (planned) Forecasted budget for project realisation (all-in) prioritisation regulatory (y/n) regulatory cash flow (planned) amount of cahflow the project will generate (yearly) after launch opex (planned) amount of opex the project , once launched capex (planned) amount of capex the project, once the project is launched NPV (planned) net present value ROI (planned) return on investment cost of not-execution what is -combined-cost if project is not done ECV (planned) expected commercial value revenues (estimated) what revenue will be generated with the project profits (expected) what are the expected profits when the project is launched page 37 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 38. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Metrics explained – 2/3Metrics explained – 2/3 defined metrics high level description Growth Metrics for Business, Cumulative Average Growth Rate CAGR https://www.business-case-analysis.com/growth-metrics.html CAS capital amortisation schedule pay back time (months) pay back time break even TCO total cost of ownership number of Customers impacted (estimated) how many customers are concerned re-use, recuperation (%, €) market share (impact) what is the % or € investment, of the project, for another project, or application CBA cost benefit analysis interdependencies identified indication of complexity, importance AHP analytic hierarchy process EAA https://www.business-case-analysis.com/growth-metrics.html URG Urgency assessment to realise the project (outcome) page 38 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 39. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Metrics explained – 3/3Metrics explained – 3/3 defined metrics high level description (ZBB) zero based budgeting CRM company's reputation Monte Carlo probabilistic approach risk on failure (%, or €) risk on failure window of (commercial) opportunity RoE return on equity EUTH expected utility theory project matrix ranking weighing factors multiple objective optimisation page 39 • PMO, the Next Level
  • 40. PMO – PMO as a ServicePMO – PMO as a Service April 2017 Time is up. Much more to talk about this interesting topic…. Questions ? Linkedin Jan Biets - Jan_biets@hotmail.com - +32(0)477 329011 page 40 • PMO, the Next Level ? ?????? ? ?