PFCapital Air Canada 120913 FINAL

Strictly Confidential December 2013
Point Frederick CapitalPoint Frederick Capital
Point Frederick Capital
Management, LLC
Presentation for: Chand Sooran
Air Canada: A Turnaround That Is Fueled Up And Ready
For Takeoff

No representation is made that the Investment manager’s or the Fund’s investment process, investment strategies, goals or risk
management techniques will or are likely to be achieved or be successful. See Important Information on Page 2.
Important Information
2
This material has been prepared by Point Frederick Capital Management, LLC (the “Investment Manager” or “Point Frederick”). The information in this material is for illustration and
discussion purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, investment, tax or legal advice, any recommendation or opinion regarding the
appropriateness or suitability of any investment or strategy, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, an interest in any security, including an interest in the private fund
described herein (the “Fund”) or any other private fund or pool advised by the Investment Manager or any of its affiliates. This information is qualified in its entirety by the
information contained in the Fund’s confidential offering documents (the “Offering Memorandum”). Any offer or solicitation of an investment in the Fund may be made only by
delivery of the Offering Memorandum to qualified investors. Prospective investors should rely solely on the Offering Memorandum in making any investment decision. The Offering
Memorandum contains important information, including, among other information, a description of the Fund’s risks, investment program, fees and expenses, and should be read
carefully before any investment decision is made. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, or financial, legal or tax situation of any
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This information is confidential, is the property of the Investment Manager, is intended only for intended recipients and their authorized agents and representatives and may not be
reproduced or distributed to any other person without prior written consent.
2

3
Air Canada Is Employing The Airline Restructuring Playbook,
With Leverage To Higher Interest Rates From Its Pension
Recommendation: Buy the common stock of Air Canada (ticker TSX:AC.B). It has a favorable
reward-to-risk tradeoff of almost 5 times. We believe that the stock has the potential to move up
roughly 150% from the current price. Key events driving the stock higher include the Company’s
recent labor accords, its new fleet plan (with concomitant cost savings), its exposure to higher
interest rates via its pension underfunding, and the potential for further cost savings.
The Bull Case Revolves Around Leverage
• The Company exited CCAA protection in September 2004
• It has resolved most of the key issues that have held the stock
back, principally labor-related problems.
• It renegotiated labor agreements with all of its unions over the
course of the summer, enabling them to set up a low-cost carrier-
within-a-carrier called Air Canada rouge focused on high volume
leisure routes
• It has made tremendous inroads on controlling non-labor
costs, but it still has runway for further cost reductions as new,
lower maintenance aircraft come online and older aircraft come
to the end of their leases
• Financial leverage is also well beneath the key 3.0x Adjusted
Net Debt/EBITDAR threshold
• The Company’s pension underfunding is something less than
$1.66B (the most recently disclosed level) with every 1%
increase in the discount rate reducing the deficit by $2B
0
5
10
15
20
25
11/17/2006
2/17/2007
5/17/2007
8/17/2007
11/17/2007
2/17/2008
5/17/2008
8/17/2008
11/17/2008
2/17/2009
5/17/2009
8/17/2009
11/17/2009
2/17/2010
5/17/2010
8/17/2010
11/17/2010
2/17/2011
5/17/2011
8/17/2011
11/17/2011
2/17/2012
5/17/2012
8/17/2012
11/17/2012
2/17/2013
5/17/2013
8/17/2013
11/17/2013
Air Canada Equity - Post CCAA Exit
Reference:CapitalIQ
All figures in this presentation are in Canadian dollars
unless specified otherwise.

4
Air Canada Is The Largest Airline Company In Canada With A
Significant And Growing International Business
The Company is a full service airline providing passenger and cargo service to a diverse network spanning
Canada, the United States and a growing number of international destinations. It also has a number of smaller
ancillary businesses including charters for sports teams and business groups, leisure travel packages. It recently
launched a lower cost operation, called Air Canada rouge, that will focus on high volume, leisure markets with a
seasonal orientation, flying to the southern US and the Caribbean in the winter and to Europe during the summer.
Pension & Rates
Routes
Labor
Aircraft
Financing
Operating Leverage
And Growth
EETCs
Financial Leverage
Upside
Reference: Company, Point Frederick Capital

5
Reference: Company
Air Canada Has Leading Positions Domestically, In The
Canada-US Market And In The Canada-International Market

6
Reference: Company
The Recently Refurbished Toronto Pearson Terminal 1 Is The
Company’s Key North American Hub

7
Reference: Company
Air Canada Is The Largest Foreign Carrier Operating In The
US Market, Benefiting From The Industry’s Restructuring

8
Reference: Company
The Addition Of 37 B787s Through 2016 Will Enhance An
Already Well Developed International Network
Note that Air Canada is a leading member of the global STAR Alliance. It is also a member of the A++
alliance with United and Lufthansa in which the three carriers share trans-Atlantic revenues.

9
Air Canada Negotiated New Labor Contracts With Each Of Its
Unions This Summer Obtaining Work Rule Flexibility
Easier, more flexible work rules mean lower costs. At Air Canada rouge, greater seat density and labor flexibility
(including provisions like changing the number of passengers per flight attendant from 40 to 50, will lead to
significantly lower CASM on the more competitively priced high volume leisure runs.
Reference: Company
Even as the pilots permitted the ERJ-175s to move into outsourced regional capacity.

10
Mainline Q313A Q413G Q414G Q415G
B787 - - 6 12
B777-300 14 16 17 17
B777-200 6 6 6 6
B767-300 28 27 21 17
A330-300 8 8 8 8
A321 10 10 10 10
A320 41 41 41 41
A319 36 30 13 8
ERJ190 45 45 45 45
ERJ175 - - - -
Total Mainline 188 183 167 164
Air Canada rouge Q313A Q413G Q414G Q415G
B767-300 2 2 8 12
A319 2 8 25 30
Total rouge 4 10 33 42
Total Mainline and rouge 192 193 200 206
The Ramp At rouge Takes Place Over The Next Several Years
As B787 Deliveries Free Up B767-300s …

11
Reference: Company
… Further Improving The Cost Per Available Seat Mile Mix At
The Mainline …

12
Reference: Company
… Even As Air Canada Starts To Accelerate ASM Growth
With A Focus On High Margin International Traffic …

13
Reference: Company
… Including Grabbing Its Fair Share Of US-International
Traffic As It Seeks To Match Other Carriers’ Shares

14
Reference: Company
The Combination of New Aircraft And Better Labor
Agreements Means Reduced Fixed Costs, Improved CASM
Airline business models are characterized by high fixed costs for labor, sales, technology and
infrastructure. The logical way to look at the operating model is on a per available-seat-mile basis. In
addition to trying to extract as much revenue per ASM by flying more lucrative traffic (with higher capacity
utilization), the key to profits is reduction of CASM, assuming that manageable fuel increases can be
passed through to passengers as (permanent) surcharges.

15
There Is Plenty Of Expensive Secured Debt That The
Company May Be Able To Refinance With More EETCs
Reference: Company, Capital IQ.
In July 2013, the Company issued its
first Enhanced Equipment Trust
Certificate (“EETC”) financing. EETCs
are a tool widely employed by US
airlines, exploiting Section 1110 of the
US Bankruptcy Code. Section 1110
carves out certain types of equipment
financing permitting aircraft creditors to
repossess the aircraft within 60 days of
filing, unless the airline cures the
default. Consequently, EETC financing
is much cheaper than financing not able
to escape the stay.
Under the provisions of the Capetown
convention, Canadian laws were
changed recently to permit Section
1110-like protections from the stay. Air
Canada’s EETC was the first EETC
issued in Canadian history raising
$715m in proceeds with a blended
coupon rate of 4.7%, collateralized by
the new B777-300ER deliveries.
Senior Secured Debt PF Maturity Coupon
Aircraft Financing:
Fixed Rate US Dollar Financing 1,423 2013-2025 6.920%
Floating Rate US Dollar Financing Loan 611 2015-2021 2.420%
Floating Rate Japanese Yen Financing 125 2020 0.290%
Senior Secured Notes - USD 721 2019-2020 7.610%
Senior Secured Notes - CAD 300 2019 7.630%
Senior Secured Notes - USD 55 2013 9.760%
Senior Secured Notes -CAD 15 2013 10.130%
Other Secured Financing - USD 509 2014-2019 6.230%
Other Secured Financing - CAD 125 2015 8.750%
US$100m R/C -
Finance Lease Obligations 326 2013-2033 10.060%
Unamortized Discount -
Unamortized Debt Issuance Costs (58)
Total Senior Secured Debt 4,152 6.59%
Senior Unsecured Debt PF Maturity Coupon
Total Senior Unsecured -
Senior Subordinated Debt PF Maturity Coupon
Total Senior Subordinated Debt -
Total Debt 4,152
Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents (2,309)
Net Debt 1,843
Preferred Shares -
Minority Interest 61
FD SH o/s 296.2
SH Price 7.93$
Market Capitalization 2,349
Enterprise Value 4,253

16
Reference: Company
Air Canada Has Been Very Disciplined In Reducing Its
Financial Leverage, Though It Is Still High

17
Debt Maturity Profile Q413G 2014G 2015G 2016G 2017G +
LT Debt Obligations - Principal 172 290 631 295 398 2,098
Finance Lease Obligations - Principal 15 58 52 25 26 150
Total Principal Obligations 187 348 683 320 424 2,248
LT Debt Obligations - Interest 57 214 175 156 167 261
Finance Lease Obligations - Interest 8 28 22 18 16 50
Total Interest Obligations 65 242 197 174 183 311
Total Debt and Finance Lease Obligations 252 590 880 494 607 2,559
Operating Lease Obligations 98 343 291 238 209 563
Committed Capital Expenditures 285 766 704 1,034 1,335 870
EETC Financing 11 41 43 41 40 425
Total Obligations 646 1,740 1,918 1,807 2,191 4,417
The Maturity Schedule Is Manageable, Even As It Will Add
New Total Debt To Finance Aircraft Acquisitions
Note that the Company has a $600m backstop financing in place from Boeing for the deliveries of the B787s.
These will likely be financed with another series of EETC issues in coming years, even as they refinance or pay
out expensive legacy debt.

18
Pension Funding Obligations 2011A 2012A 2013G
Past Service Domestic Registered Plans 138 173 221
Current Service Domestic Registered Plans 171 169 170
Other Pension Arrangements 76 91 85
Projected Pension Funding Obligations 385 433 476
The sooner Air Canada reduces its pension deficit of $1.66B, the sooner it will be able to end its required
pension top-up cash contributions of $150-200m per year, in addition to ongoing pension expense.
As At May 2013, The Pension Deficit of $1.66B Requires
Minimum Annual Cash Payments Per Recent Legislation

19
With Tremendous Sensitivity To Rates And Given The
Performance Of Equities, Pension Solvency Is Near
The Company eliminated 90% of its defined
benefit pension plan accruals for new hires
as part of the recent labor accord.
This suggests that they may be able to
outsource the pension, once they have
obtained solvency, removing it as a potential
future liability and freeing up $150-200m in
cash flow annually, with meaningful accretion
to the $2B current market capitalization.
Pension Contributions
Corp Disc Rt PV Per SH
10.0% 974 3.29$
12.5% 898 3.03$
15.0% 832 2.81$
17.5% 773 2.61$
20.0% 721 2.43$

20
The Turnaround At Air Canada Feeds Into The Operating
Statistics
Operating Statistics 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM 2013 2014 2015
Revenue Passenger Miles 50,629 50,519 47,884 51,875 54,223 55,646 56,480 57,095 61,121 64,178
Growth % yoy -0.2% -5.2% 8.3% 4.5% 2.6% 1.1% 7.1% 5.0%
Available Seat Miles 62,814 62,074 59,343 63,496 66,460 67,269 68,024 68,783 74,973 78,722
Growth % yoy -1.2% -4.4% 7.0% 4.7% 1.2% 1.1% 9.0% 5.0%
Passenger Load Factor 80.6% 81.4% 80.7% 81.7% 81.6% 82.7% 83.0% 83.0% 81.5% 81.5%
Growth % yoy 0.8% -0.7% 1.0% -0.1% 1.1% 0.0% -1.5% 0.0%
Passenger Revenue per RPM("Yield") 18.4 19.2 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.6
Growth % yoy 4.3% -7.8% 2.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6% -0.5% 1.5%
Passenger Revenue per ASM("RASM") 14.8 15.6 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.1 15.7 16.0
Growth % yoy 5.4% -8.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 0.6% -2.3% 1.5%
Operating Revenue per ASM 16.9 17.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.0 18.1 17.6 17.8
Growth % yoy 5.9% -8.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 0.2% -2.5% 1.1%
Operating Expense per ASM("CASM") 16.3 17.9 16.9 16.4 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.1 17.6 17.8
Growth % yoy 9.8% -5.6% -3.0% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% -2.5% 1.1%
Adjusted CASM("CASMex-Fuel, ex-Vacations") 12.2 12.4 12.8 12.2 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.3
Growth % yoy 1.6% 3.2% -4.7% -4.1% 0.9% -0.1% -1.6% -1.2%

21
Financial Results 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM 2013 2014 2015
Total Revenue 10,599 11,082 9,739 10,786 11,612 12,120 12,273 12,435 13,209 14,021
Growth % yoy 4.6% -12.1% 10.8% 7.7% 4.4% 2.6% 6.2% 6.1%
EBITDAR 1,375 934 679 1,386 1,242 1,327 1,402 1,508 1,606 2,047
Margin % 13.0% 8.4% 7.0% 12.8% 10.7% 10.9% 11.4% 12.1% 12.2% 14.6%
Growth % yoy -32.1% -27.3% 104.1% -10.4% 6.8% 13.6% 6.5% 27.4%
EBITDA 1,052 655 344 1,040 907 991 1,071 1,185 1,264 1,755
Margin % 9.9% 5.9% 3.5% 9.6% 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.5% 9.6% 12.5%
Growth % yoy -37.7% -47.5% 202.3% -12.8% 9.3% 19.6% 6.6% 38.9%
EBIT 495 (39) (316) 361 179 313 433 583 576 1,018
Margin % 4.7% -0.4% -3.2% 3.3% 1.5% 2.6% 3.5% 4.7% 4.4% 7.3%
Growth % yoy -107.9% 710.3% -214.2% -50.4% 74.9% 86.3% -1.2% 76.9%
NOPAT 891 (593) 451 492 36 316 467 325 372 814
Margin % 8.4% -5.4% 4.6% 4.6% 0.3% 2.6% 3.8% 2.6% 2.8% 5.8%
Growth % yoy -166.6% -176.1% 9.1% -92.7% 777.8% 2.8% 14.4% 119.1%
PF Net Income 742 (818) 96 134 (244) 67 126 41 337 814
Margin % 7.0% -7.4% 1.0% 1.2% -2.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 2.6% 5.8%
Growth % yoy -210.2% -111.7% 39.6% -282.1% -127.5% -39.0% 724.7% 141.5%
Cash Flow from Operations 537 (102) (167) 864 576 649 681 869 939 1,470
Margin % 5.1% -0.9% -1.7% 8.0% 5.0% 5.4% 5.5% 7.0% 7.1% 10.5%
Growth % yoy -119.0% 63.7% -617.4% -33.3% 12.7% 27.7% 8.0% 56.6%
CapEx 2,714 883 232 118 220 462 590 934 1,126 967
Margin % 25.6% 8.0% 2.4% 1.1% 1.9% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 8.5% 6.9%
Growth % yoy -67.5% -73.7% -49.1% 86.4% 110.0% 102.2% 20.6% -14.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow (2,177) (985) (399) 746 356 187 91 (65) (187) 503
Margin % -20.5% -8.9% -4.1% 6.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7% -0.5% -1.4% 3.6%
Growth % yoy -54.8% -59.5% -287.0% -52.3% -47.5% -134.6%
Total Debt 4,419 5,354 4,522 4,457 4,330 3,955 4,152 4,447 5,063 5,580
Plus: Aircraft Rent @ 7x 2,261 1,953 2,345 2,422 2,345 2,352 2,317 2,259 2,399 2,041
Less: Liquid Assets (1,239) (1,005) (1,407) (2,192) (2,099) (2,026) (2,309) (2,494) (2,923) (3,944)
Adjusted Net Debt 5,441 6,302 5,460 4,687 4,576 4,281 4,160 4,212 4,539 3,677
Adjusted Net Debt/LTMEBITDAR 4.0x 6.7x 8.0x 3.4x 3.7x 3.2x 3.0x 2.8x 2.8x 1.8x
Cash % of Total Revenues 11.7% 9.1% 14.4% 20.3% 18.1% 16.7% 18.8% 20.1% 22.1% 28.1%
Driving The Tremendous Operating Leverage In Financial
Metrics

22
Downside Multiple 3.5x Upside Multiple 5.5x
2015E EBITDARP 2,097 2015E EBITDARP 2,097
2015E Adj EV+Pension 7,339 2015E Adj EV+Pension 11,532
Less: Pension (1,600) Less: Pension (1,600)
Less: Capitalized Aircraft Rent (2,259) Less: Capitalized Aircraft Rent (2,259)
Less: Net Debt (1,843) Less: Net Debt (1,843)
Equity Value 1,636 Equity Value 5,830
Per SH 5.52$ Per SH 19.68$
Valuing Air Canada With A Discount To US Carriers Still
Suggests Tremendous Upside From Current Levels
Reference: Point Frederick Capital
Arguably, a company with this kind of operating leverage should trade at a much higher absolute
multiple, in addition to its attractiveness in an environment in which rising rates have the potential to
create so much equity value.

23
SUMMARY AIRLINE COMPARABLES LTM EBITDAR Margin %
Operating Statistics ASMs RPMs LF Yield RASM CASM
CASM ex-
Fuel 2014E 2015E
Air Canada 68,024 56,114 82.5% 18.38 18.04 17.15 11.06 12.1% 15.1%
Alaska Air Group 33,268 28,572 85.9% 15.14 13.01 12.91 8.45 21.1% 21.3%
Delta Air Lines Inc. 231,137 194,073 84.0% 17.25 14.49 15.06 10.92 14.9% 15.7%
United Continental Holdings, Inc. 211,299 177,785 84.1% 18.89 15.89 14.60 8.70 12.2% 13.1%
US Airways Group, Inc. 76,213 64,939 85.2% 19.89 16.95 13.28 7.32 14.7% 17.1%
Westjet Airlines Ltd. 22,675 18,668 82.3% 17.60 14.49 14.83 10.31 21.6% 23.3%
2014E Growth 2015E Growth Adj EV/EBITDAR
Financial Metrics Rev EBITDAR Rev EBITDAR 2014E 2015E
Air Canada 6.8% 6.5% 2.4% 27.4% 4.0x 3.1x
Alaska Air Group 5.2% 10.2% 5.3% 6.6% 5.0x 4.7x
Delta Air Lines Inc. 4.0% 9.9% 2.2% 7.6% 5.9x 5.5x
United Continental Holdings, Inc. 4.5% 15.7% 3.7% 11.8% 5.9x 5.3x
US Airways Group, Inc. 4.8% 0.3% 3.5% 19.9% 5.2x 4.3x
Westjet Airlines Ltd. 7.1% 10.9% 5.2% 13.6% 5.3x 4.7x
Reference: Point Frederick Capital, Capital IQ
Air Canada’s Valuation Discount Is Difficult To Justify,
History or Not
As North American airlines continue to re-rate higher, we believe that Air Canada may have the
potential to trade at a premium to US carriers, though we have not valued the upside on that basis.

24
Guidance Q413G FY13G
ASMs - System Increase 3.0-4.0% Increase 2.0-2.5%
ASMs - Canada N/A Increase 2.0-2.5%
Adjusted CASM Decrease 2.0-3.0% Decrease 1.5-2.5%
USD/CAD 1.03 1.03
Jet fuel price per litre 0.89$ 0.89$
Canadian Economy Growth 1.25-1.75% Growth 1.25-1.75%
Capital Commitments Q413G 2014G 2015G 2016G 2017G
Projected Committed Expenditures 285 766 704 1,034 1,335
Projected Planned but Uncommitted Expenditures 9 234 199 169 190
Projected Planned but Uncommitted Capitalized Maintenance 22 126 64 53 53
Total Projected Expenditures 316 1,126 967 1,256 1,578
Less: Projected Financing on Committed Expenditures (295) (657) (560) (818) (1,121)
Total Projected Expenditures, net of financing 21 469 407 438 457
The Company’s Disclosure Is Transparent And Guidance
Appears To Be Conservative

25
What Does The Red Team Analysis Suggest How This Could
Go Wrong?
Fuel prices spike faster and harder than Air Canada
can pass through pricing, given the lead on air travel
bookings and the sensitivity of the elasticity of demand
to an overall commodity shock.
Geopolitical disruptions lead to a significant reduction
in international and, potentially, domestic travel.
A global disease outbreak, like the SARS virus,
causes people to defer international travel plans
significantly.
Competition in Canada from Air Canada’s main
competitor accelerates, causing domestic pricing to
fall quickly and significantly.

26
What Is The Market Missing?
The price of fuel could come under further pressure,
particularly in North America, as a result of shale
fracking, the oil sands and excess inventories.
The market may be underestimating the potential from
recent waves of immigration into Canada from Asia.
As these immigrant communities begin to accumulate
wealth, there is tremendous potential for Canada-Asia
traffic growth.
Just because Air Canada has not implemented a plan
to date to increase ancillary revenue substantially
does not mean that such a plan would be unfeasible.
They may surprise the market with their ability to ramp
up such fees.
Air Canada is currently implementing the same
revenue management system used by its STAR
Alliance partners Lufthansa and United. This may
lead to meaningful RPM accretion not contemplated
by current consensus estimates.

27
Pension & Rates
Routes
Labor
Aircraft
Financing
Operating Leverage
And Growth
EETCs
Financial Leverage
Upside
Air Canada Has Tremendous Upside Despite Fantastic
Recent Performance
We like turnarounds because, when combined with growth, they can be a good source of
investments characterized by a combination of operating leverage and financial leverage. Air
Canada fits that bill.

Contact Information
28
Chand Sooran
Chief Investment Officer, Manager & Founding Member
chand.sooran@pointfrederickcapital.com
646.380.6675
28

PFCapital Air Canada 120913 FINAL

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