Investment returns.

1. Peter Challis
Portfolio Returns
Nov 2015 – Oct 2017

2. This deck includes all* stock investments made from:
Nov 2015 – October 2017.
Backup data available on request.
Realised Investments
+26%
*held over more than 1 week with greater than -/+1% net gains/loss.

3. Royal Dutch Shell
+20% riding the wave of the oil price recovery and GBP/EUR hedge post Brexit
Buy: 05/02/2016 – 1,517
Sell: 01/08/2016 – 1,899
Investment Logic:
▪ Shell’s share price was supressed due to the low oil price, I believed this would correct long-term.
▪ Shell bills revenue largely not in GBP and therefore would benefit from negative effects of Brexit if it happened (June 23rd 2016).
▪ Essentially a contrarian investment play against oil price recovery which happened after the OPEC agreement.
▪ Analysed annual reports and correlation coefficient analysis with rest of portfolio to assess hedge.
▪ 20% increase over a 6 month period.
▪ Sold due to increasing oil price issues and after the result of Brexit, collected one dividend.

4. LinkedIn
Buy: 02/06/2016 – 105
+55% in 3 weeks after Microsoft’s $193 share offer.
Sell: 17/06/2016 – 190
Investment Logic:
▪ Linkedin was significantly undervalued on a P/E basis against peers
▪ Linkedin had a strong competitive moat with significant network effects and strong B2B social media brand.
▪ Recognised that as a professional B2B social media platform this would mean advertising content would be more valuable.
▪ Conducted substantial financial analysis and due diligence by reading annual report and articles.
▪ Sold after Microsoft acquisition and made 55% in 3 weeks.

5. Gold ETF through Brexit
+13% in 3 months to hedge Brexit risk
Buy: 18/03/2016 – 8,348
Sell: 28/06/2016 – 9,493
Investment Logic:
▪ Purchased gold on negative interest environment and growing market uncertainty surrounding financial crash.
▪ Hedged against Brexit fallout.
▪ Purchased 1 month before Soros and other major fund managers purchased gold in lead up to Brexit.
▪ Sold 5 days after Brexit for a 13% increase in 3 months.

6. Volkswagen AG
+15% Post emissions scandal
Buy: 12/04/2016 – 9,988
Sell: 21/12/2016 – 11,712
Investment Logic:
▪ Purchased after emissions scandal and belief that other car manufacturers would suffer the same fines.
▪ Understood that ESG focused pension funds selling out of positions may be effecting the share price.
▪ Analysed annual report, news articles and potential fines and that could be imposed.
▪ Volkswagen trades in EUR and therefore was another Brexit hedge and this translated into investment returns.

7. PayPal
+17% over a volatile holding period
Buy: 14/04/2016 – 30
Sell: 21/12/2016 - 36
Investment Logic:
▪ Purchased due to belief in disruptive potential of PayPal and that it was undervalued.
▪ Earnings were low but users were increasing which I believed could be monetized.
▪ Had recently made excellent acquisitions including Venmo & Braintree that I believed would fundamentally grow the business.
▪ Held through volatile 8 months, sold after negative exposure to loss of Ebay business.
▪ Made 17% over 8 months, in hindsight sold too early, missed out on 95% upside.

8. Revolution Bar Group
+60% in 4 weeks after Stonegate Offer
Buy: 07/07/2016 – 105
Sell: 01/08/2016 - 175
Investment Logic:
▪ Purchased after reading sell-side report on UK restaurant sector and looking at some peers trading multiples.
▪ Share price took a dive due to industry wage pressures making the stock significantly undervalued against strategic value.
▪ M&A activity in restaurant sector was high and the businesses was still a valuable asset to a strategic investor.
▪ Visited Revs De Cuba brand which was a growing sub-brand with excellent earnings potential in core city locations.
▪ Sold after Stonegate offer and made 65% in 4 weeks.

9. Current Portfolio
As of 30/10/2017

10. Wells Fargo
+20% (30/10/2017)
Buy: 11/03/2016 – 50.7
Investment Logic:
• Purchased Wells Fargo due to it’s exposure to the recovering US housing market as core mortgage provider.
• Needed a US income stock to hedge portfolio against currency risk.
• Long-term the bank will take market share from other banks due to strong position after 2008.
• International expansion will drive growth.
• The bank is exposed positively to income rate rises and less exposed negatively to financial crisis than other
banks.

11. Sirius Minerals
-6.6% (30/10/2017)
Buy: 31/03/2016 – 22.1
Investment Logic:
• Long-term investment that is exposed positively to ageing populations, especially in China.
• Attractive valuation on a DCF basis long-term.
• Supported by the UK Government.
• Conducted review of annual report and read articles.
• Will hold over 5-10 years.
Buy: 08/08/2016 – 29.7

12. Seeing Machines
+18.52 (30/10/2017) – illiquid and very volatile.
Investment Logic:
Buy: 15/08/2016 – 3.825
Investment Logic:
• Small cap investment with a business model that could profit from increased driverless cars globally.
• Invested a small amount due to limited risk but huge upside potential based on an order from a big customer.
• Good acquisition opportunity for an electronics manufacturer looking to enter electronic car space.
• Substantial synergy savings that could be achieved and they own strong IP and may command a premium.

13. Microsoft
+8.72% (30/10/2017) following positive 1Q ER
Investment Logic:
• Microsoft’s CEO Naveed is refocusing the business on core products to large enterprises.
• They have new product innovations such as the Surface and their high growth cloud offering Azure.
• They have new business model innovations such as offering Office on a subscription basis.
• Believe that they will raise their dividend and become a more attractive income stock to yield institutional investors.
• Strongly believe they will reach $1 Trillion market cap in next 3 years which is c.40% upside from current price.
Buy: 08/08/2016 – 71
Buy: 15/08/2016 – 75

14. Twitter
+13% (30/10/2017) following positive ER in Oct 2017.
Investment Logic:
• Twitter is undervalued with the stock price supressed due to an inability to monetize their large user base.
• Twitter has network effects making it an attractive acquisition for a media company.
• User base could also be organically monetized through changing their model to subscription or pay-per-follower.
• Social media platforms are becoming TV channels with users video streaming customised content.
• Twitter is ideally positioned to capture this long-term trend and has a loyal user base.
• Estimating this could 10x in the next 3-5 years or be acquired for a premium.
Buy: 16/10/2016 - 18.33

15. Portfolio Returns
Strong performance relative to indices.
Portfolio Allocations
▪ Hold 75% cash due to fundamental belief that we are at the top
of a bull market. Liquidity will be used to bargain hunt in the
event of a stock market crash.
▪ Return calculations do not include this cash component which is
a huge opportunity cost. Cash is used to protect downside risk.
▪ Historically higher portions in mutual funds & ETFs.
Period Net Returns on Capital Invested (%)
Stock & Fund Returns* 30/11/2015 – 25/10/2017 26.3%
Stock Returns* 30/11/2015 – 25/10/2017 24.4%
FTSE 100 30/11/2015 – 25/10/2017 14.8%
FTSE 250 30/11/2015 – 25/10/2017 8.7%
*Returns include unrealised portfolio which currently trades +1% (26/10/2017).