“Opportunity or Armageddon ?”
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Jim's view is that BREXIT will create a blizzard of confusing content for our clients. We can support them in bringing meaning to this content by helping them wrap context around it. If reality is perception, then the reality of BREXIT for our clients is their perception. Perception is how our clients choose (consciously and unconsciously) to relate to what is going on around them. For some it will be perceived as an opportunity and for others a threat. Each is a context that will impact their planning and actions.
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“Opportunity or Armageddon ?”
- 6. Accelerate Ayrshire “Opportunity or Armageddon ?” 8th September 2016
- 7. Theme “Great Change Creates Great Opportunity” Why businesses need to stay flexible to take advantage of the opportunities and shifts in market conditions.
- 8. Ignore The Press !
- 9. Markets – FTSE, Dow, Hang Seng • The markets are good indicators as to what’s coming in the economy and are always ahead of the economy by about 6 months • Although markets do jump about in the short term, it’s possible to draw trends over time – to help businesses make key decisions based on long-term market directions
- 10. July 2007 – March 2012 The Great Depression
- 11. January 2016 to Date Brexit
- 12. June 2012 - 2015, Independence result
- 13. Growth
- 14. Growth
- 15. Growth
- 16. Growth
- 17. 2 Black Holes,
- 18. We Always Recover • 1973 oil crisis and recession (FTSE 30 fell 73%) • 1979 oil crisis – middle east conflict – crude oil price doubled • 1990 ERM and recession and black Wednesday • 2001 911 disaster – markets reached a 3 year low • 2008 Great recession – “Armageddon” • 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine territory Micex fell 11% • 2016 Brexit – OMG !
- 19. Your Choice Opportunity or Armageddon ? How’s your mind-set? What beliefs do you hold? Those showing courage, confidence and innovation always win in times of great change
- 20. We Always Recover • The markets see Brexit as a blip (in macro economic terms) • The trendists see a period of growth for the next 15 years • That being the case, what blockages need to be overcome in your business now, to accelerate you forwards ? (5 mins)
- 21. 8 September, 2016 Thank You Jim Henderson– Shirlaws Group E: jim.henderson@shirlawsgroup.com M: 07817 745958
Editor's Notes
- My view is that BREXIT will create a blizzard of confusing content for our clients. We can support them in bringing meaning to this content by helping them wrap context around it. If reality is perception, then the reality of BREXIT for our clients is their perception. Perception is how our clients choose (consciously and unconsciously) to relate to what is going on around them. For some it will be perceived as an opportunity and for others a threat. Each is a context that will impact their planning and actions.
- Staying flexible is difficult when we are bombarded in the press with messages of crisis, Armageddon, we’re doomed. It freezes our decision making. Brexit was in our minds when we put together this event – what does it mean for my business is a reasonable question to ask. As everyone dived into the detail at the time, I thought I’d give you some context and perspective which should help in your decision making as to what to do next. I want you to go away today with a bit more courage and confidence and renewed focus to move your business forward and don’t get delayed / hung up / distracted by things you can’t control.
- Ignore the press – the markets are better indicators of what is coming in the economy next. “You cannot buck the markets” – who said that.
- Best example is 2008 depression actually was predicted by the analysts and fund managers in early 2007. Markets peaked in mid July 07 then started tumbling to hit the bottom in March 2009. The economy in July 2007 was still in boom time / greed – early 2008 was when the economy started to be hit.
- What trend do you see here? If the market is an indicator of future economic trend, what decisions would you take for your business?
- What trend do you see here?
- Mid 40’s to early 60’s 18 years – What trend?
- What trend? Invest a £ in mid60’s get a £1 back in 1980
- What trend
- What trend? Flat -
- So what’s next? More careful examination shows an 18 year / 14 year trend
- 1973 oil price +400%