This document discusses technical analysis of the German DAX index and Euro-Bund futures. It provides the following key points: 1. The Elder Force Index suggests the recent 10% drop in the DAX may have lost downward momentum as of August 24th, as previous spikes in this index have signaled. 2. Support and resistance levels for Euro-Bund futures can be identified using "Market Picture" charts, which show price distribution over time. Levels at 151.50, 151.15, and 152.60 are identified as potential near-term levels. 3. A monthly chart of the EURUSD identifies potential long-term support at 1.03-1.04,

1. Oliver T. Woolf, CAIA, CMT, FRM
Quantitative Technical Strategy & Data Visualization Specialist
owoolf@bloomberg.net
Quantitative Technical
Strategy
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

2. Aug. 27, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 2
GERMAN EQUITIES BY OLIVER WOOLF, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND CHARTING SPECIALIST, BLOOMBERG LP
Elder Force Suggests DAX Slide Lost Momentum After Hitting Seven-Year Low
Germany's benchmark DAX Index fell
by more than 10 percent in the Aug.
1-Aug. 26 period, tracking the global
equity market slump. Bloomberg technical
analysis suggests that the drop in
German equities may have lost strength.
The first chart highlights the Andrew’s
Pitchfork on the DAX with the Elder Force
Index shown in blue at the bottom. The
Force Index measures the strength of a
move by linking the price change with the
volume it took to make it.
The reading on Aug. 24 was the most
negative since October 2008. Previous
spikes have signaled that downward
moves are losing momentum as they
highlight where significant volume has
been liquidated, shown here by the red
dotted lines.
It is worth noting that in the previous
two instances, periods of consolidation
have ensued, indicated by the amber
squares.
The Pitchfork — derived from the low of
Feb. 9, 2009, the high of May 2, 2011 and
the low of Sept. 23, 2011 — projects
potential support and resistance levels
that held in March 2012, May 2013, the
October 2014 low and the last high in
April of this year. The Aug. 24 trough
occurred just at the lower tongue of the
pitchfork.
In recent weeks, there have been a lot
of opening gaps on the DAX. Since gaps
have a tendency to be filled, they are
widely used for target levels.
The dotted orange lines in the second
chart denote gaps that have been filled,
most notably the Aug. 24 low which was
also a hammer candle, traditionally a
bullish reversal signal. The blue lines
mark those gaps that have yet to be filled
and could be future target levels.
Should the rally continue, the next
target is at 10681.36, which coincides
with the low of the early July dip.
However, if the decline regains
momentum, there is a lower gap target at
9146.95, stemming from a gap that
opened on Halloween of last year.
Oliver Woolf can be reached at
owoolf@bloomberg.net.
This story was written by a Bloomberg LP employee involved with sales-support, product-development,
programming or another department and was edited by the News Department. To suggest ideas or
provide feedback, contact the editor for this story: Deirdre Fretz at dfretz@bloomberg.net or 212-617-5166
Source: Bloomberg
To see a live version of this chart, terminal users may click on the image or run G BBTA 1153
Source: Bloomberg
To see a live version of this chart, terminal users may click on the image or run G BBTA 1154

3. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32015//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 19
Momentum Persistence for Stock Selection
In a 1993 paper entitled
‘Returns to Buying Winners and
Selling Losers: Implications for
Stock Market Efficiency’
Jegadeesh and Titman argued
that “strategies which buy
stocks that have performed well
in the past and sell stocks that
have performed poorly in the
past generate significant
positive returns over 3 to 12
month holding periods”. In short
their research advocated the
persistence of momentum as a
factor in stock selection.
Bloomberg’s FTST function for
factor backtesting enables us
to backtest such a concept.
A hypothesis can be created
using a single factor for stock
selection or by creating a
composite factor where each
individual factor is assigned a
weighting.
For each component within the
model it must be stated whether
a high or low value is better in
order to create the hypothesis.
12. Strategy creation and backtesting
A universe of stocks is then periodically rebalanced into quantiles in order to evaluate the
validity of the hypothesis over time.
The universe in this case (as seen in the image above) is the Euro STOXX 600, which is
rebalanced into 5 portfolios on a monthly basis for 10 years from 30th June 2005.
The composite factor representing momentum persistence is devised 50% from the Hurst
Exponent (20 days) and 50% from the % K of the Stochastics study (20 days)

4. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32015//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 20
12. Strategy creation and backtesting
The Hurst Exponent (middle panel of the Euro STOXX 600 chart below) uses historical information to predict future prices,
assuming that prices persist or reverse direction more often than they are random. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL(tm)
service Hurst Exponent application is based on the work of Christopher May of TLB Partners, New York. Derived form Harold
Edwin Hurst’s research into the extent to which the levels of the Nile could be predetermined from previous years it measures the
autocorrelation of the data. A higher value should indicate a higher degree of predictability, or rather, trend persistence.
Stochastics %K, the first derivative of the Stochastics indicator, measures current price relative to highs and lows over a time
period. In an up-trend, markets tend to close near the high and in a down-trend they to close nearer to the lows. This indicator is
calculated with the following formula:
%K = 100*Closing Range/Total Range
where:
Closing Range = Close - Range Minimum
Total Range = Range Maximum - Range Minimum

5. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32015//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 21
12. Strategy creation and backtesting
The chart below displays the historical performance of each of the quintiles over the past 10 years. Quintile 1, comprised of those
with the highest Hurst Exponent and %K values, and hence representing momentum persistence, is the best performing portfolio,
whereas quintile 5 is the worst.
The Q Spread in the lower panel is the spread between quintile 1 and quintile 5 and thus analogous to going long quintile 1 and
short quintile 5.

6. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32015//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 22
12. Strategy creation and backtesting
If we delve deeper into the performance in the Return section of the results we see clearly that Annualized Active Return
cascades in perfect descendent sequence from quintile 1 to quintile 5 suggesting that momentum persistence in the Euro
STOXX 600, according to this model, does carry a certain degree of validity.

7. July 2, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 4
BUNDS BY OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, BLOOMBERG APPLICATION SPECIALIST
Market Picture Charts Identify Bund Support/Resistance
Following the recent retracement of the
Euro-Bund future from its highs and
subsequent volatility, Market Picture
charts can help to identify short term
levels of support and resistance.
Market Picture charts display a
distribution of time at price, is an
extremely effective way to gauge key
levels of market activity. A unit of time,
normally a day, forms a distribution, which
is split into intervals, typically of 30
minutes, each of which is represented by
a letter. The price level with the longest
chain of letters represents where the price
has spent the most time and is called the
Point of Control (blue).
This often becomes a support or
resistance level. On the contrary regions
of a distribution where there are single
letter prints (often at the distribution tails)
highlight where the price has been
rejected and these levels often also
become support/resistance. The value
area between the pairs of red horizontal
lines denotes 70 percent of the activity.
In the chart above, the Bund future has
recently identified 152.60 as a short term
resistance level. It did so based on the
June 29 open, the lack of distribution
above the open and the June 30 high
price.
The pink line at 151.50 has been a key
pivot point over the last eleven days
including the point of control on June 17.
Most recently, the low on June 30 aligned
with the lower level of the value area from
June 29. Also note the confluence at this
level on June 19, 22, 24 and 25.
The green level is an estimated support
level at 151.15. It was also the Point of
Control on June 24, the high of the value
area in June 25, the high on June 26 and
the low on June 29.
On Bloomberg, type {RX1 Comdty
MKTP<GO>} and select the 1Y button to
see a one year chart with monthly
distributions. Modifying this chart it's
possible to discover other support and
resistance levels by searching for
alignments between Point of Controls, flat
tails and value area lines.
For example, the low of January aligns
with the low of March at a value of
155.80. The point of control in December
aligns with the value area in May and the
top of the tail in June at 155.40. The top
of the Value Area in June aligns with the
December lows, November value area
and October highs at 152.40.
To learn more about this type of chart,
type DOCS MARKET PICTURE <GO>
on Bloomberg, click , or visithere MKTP
<GO> and press the key.<HELP>
— Oliver Woolf can be reached at
owoolf@bloomberg.net
Source: Bloomberg
Click on the chart or run for a live version of this chart on the Bloomberg terminal. G BBTA 904

8. March 12, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 3
EURO BY OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, BLOOMBERG APPLICATION SPECIALIST
Fear and Greed Indicator Does Well in Tracking EURUSD Trends
The euro has depreciated over 20
percent versus the U.S. dollar since this
time last year. Long-term trend analysis,
coupled with some Bloomberg proprietary
indicators, offer targets for where support
may be found.
The monthly chart at top highlights a
downward sloping channel that began in
2008 within a long-term upward sloping
channel from 1975 developed from
derived data. The two channels intersect
at around 1.03. Only slightly above that,
around 1.04, support has been found on
multiple occasions, marked by blue
circles.
Derived data provides some historical
reference for the euro, although the time
frame extends back before the currency
was in existence.
The histogram in the lower panel is
Bloomberg’s Trendstall, which measures
the level of trend acceleration. The
current acceleration is beyond any level
registered in the last 40 years, barring
1997.
A green triangle appears when the
histogram turns downward, a signal that
the trend is stalling. Past triangles have
often been reliable indicators of trend
reversal, most notably the last red
triangle, which marked the start of the
downturn last May. That coincides with
when price approached the outer confine
of the channel.
Bloomberg’s fear and greed indicator,
used on a weekly EURUSD chart, would
have performed well over the past 20
years. Back tests using the BT<GO>
function show that following the buy and
sell signals would have generated 145
percent with a maximum draw down of
just 19 percent.
The fear and greed indicator is
calculated as the spread between 2
weighted moving averages of the true
range. It measures whether buying
pressure is outweighing selling pressure
or vice
versa. The lower chart illustrates how well
fear and greed has captured the major
trends, going long or short depending on
whether the fear and greed radar (lower
panel) is positive or negative.
Taking all of the above into account, it is
clear that the downward trend is intact.
Clues exist as to where and when it may
begin to wane.
— Oliver Woolf, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, is a technical
analysis application specialist at Bloomberg LP in
London. He can be contacted at
OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
Source: Bloomberg
Terminal users can click on chart to access a live version or run G BBTA 696
Source: Bloomberg
Terminal users can click on chart to access a live version or run G BBTA 697

9. Jan. 15, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 2
ETFS BY OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, BLOOMBERG TECHNICAL ANALYST
Returns Strong in Health Care, Poor in Energy
The strongest sector performers of last year have started 2015 in the same vein, with
health care, utilities and consumer staples offering the best returns.
ETFs tracking
health care XLV US
, utilitiesEquity XLU
andUS Equity
consumer staples
areXLP US Equity
the only sectors
with positive
performance so far
this year. Likewise,
energy continues to
underperform with a
3.5 percent loss
since the start of
the year.
The scatter plot
below summarizes
the past
performance and future expectations for the SPDR U.S. equity sector funds. The X axis
represents year-to-date returns and the Y axis measures a five day average of the net
daily fund flows. The marker sizes depict the funds’ market capitalizations and the colors
(red weaker, green stronger) illustrate one-year returns.
Fund money flows suggest that investors had been anticipating a reversal in the
fortunes of the energy sector ( ) with a positive net average of creationsXLE US Equity
over redemptions in the full first week of January. The chart below shows the price and
these flows over the past year. The lower panel is a cumulative total of the daily net
flows multiplied by the daily return.
Since the start of 2013 the cumulative fund money flow has mirrored the performance
of the energy ETF itself. However, since mid-November (marked by the vertical dashed
line) there have been net inflows into the fund despite its continued slump.
A punt on the U.S. energy sector looks like a value trap given falling oil prices. Those
invested can console themselves that the best contrarian opportunities tend to look this
way.
TICKER NAME
NET
FLOWS
$M
% OF
MARKET
CAP
XLY US
Equity
Consumer
Discretionary
Select
2,471.2 34.3%
XLE US
Equity
Energy Select
Sector SPDR
Fund
1,562.5 15.7%
IDU US
Equity
iShares US
Utilities ETF
1,292.6 176.5%
XLU US
Equity
Utilities Select
Sector SPDR F
938.5 14.2%
XLF US
Equity
Financial Select
Sector SPDR F
855.3 4.3%
TICKER NAME
NET
FLOWS
$M
% OF
MARKET
CAP
XLI US
Equity
Industrial Select
Sector SPDR
-536.3 -5.7%
IYW US
Equity
iShares US
Technology ETF
-423.1 -8.4%
GDX US
Equity
Market Vectors
Gold Miners
ETF
-413.3 -6.8%
GUNR US
Equity
FlexShares
Global
Upstream Nat
-386.3 -14.3%
FXL US
Equity
First Trust
Technology
AlphaDE
-215.6 -17.3%
Source: Bloomberg { }. XLTP ETF<GO>
CREATIONS AND REDEMPTIONS
Investors piled into an odd mix of the
pro-cyclical and defensive sectors in the
month to Jan. 12, Bloomberg data show.
The Consumer Discretionary Select
Sector SPDR fund, with a one-year total
return of 10 percent, attracted net inflows
representing 34 percent of its market
capitalization. The next most popular fund
was SPDR's energy ETF. IShares'
Utilities fund, with a net indicated yield of
3.55 percent, accumulated $1.3 billion
over the period.
Investors pulled almost 6 percent of the
market cap from SPDR's Industrial Select
Fund. They also fled iShares' technology
ETF, perhaps banking gains after the
fund's storming run over the past 12
months: its total return was 20 percent.
— Paul Smith, Bloomberg Brief Editor
Value Hunters Drawn to Energy
Source: Bloomberg. Top panel shows share price of in $; bottom panel is a cumulative total of theXLE US Equity
daily net flows multiplied by the daily return. This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at
bbg://screens/G BBTA 660
Health Care Vitals Look Promising
Source: Bloomberg

10. Dec. 11, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 5
TOOLBOX BY OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, BLOOMBERG APPLICATION SPECIALIST
Backtesting a Pair Trade: Eni SpA and Total SA
A strong correlation of .724 is present
between two integrated oil companies,
Eni S.p.A. and Total SA. Despite this
correlation and the continued decline in
the energy sector due to collapsing crude
oil prices, these company's share prices
are starting to diverge.
ENI IM Equity FP FP Equity HRA D will
show a regression of daily share prices
for one year, correlation and other
statistics describing the relationship of
these two companies.
Over the last week, ENI has continued
to make multiple new 52-week lows. Total
is about 4 percent above its 52-week
intraday low made in October and 2.3
percent above its closing low in
December 2013. The ratio of ENI to Total
suggests ENI may continue to under-
perform Total. This may add weight to the
importance of signals suggesting a long
position in ENI and short position in Total
from the following backtest.
Knowing when Eni or Total's
performance will shift can be suggested
by following the Fisher Transform
indicator, one of many new indicators
added to the backtesting functionality on
Bloomberg in . By creating aBT<GO>
synthetic index representing ENI divided
by Total in , we can test theCIXR<GO>
Fisher Transform indicator on the ratio.
The Fisher Transform indicator was
created by John Ehlers and has produced
some impressive results on the
aforementioned synthetic index. The
following strategy rules applied over the
last ten years suggests fairly consistent
results by capturing the favorable side of
the pair trade. Click to see an imagehere
of the strategy rules as they are written in
the Bloomberg terminal.
The backtest is displayed in the lower
chart. The top panel shows the ratio and
its long and short signals. The middle
panel is a profit/loss curve based on
buying and selling the ratio (not the actual
stocks). The curve of the profit/loss line is
consistently positive, albeit some under
performance in early 2014. The lower
panel is the Fisher Transform indicator.
— Oliver Woolf, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, is a technical
analysis application specialist at Bloomberg LP in
London. He can be contacted at
OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
ENI Underperforming Total Over Last Week
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at G BBTA 657<GO>
Backtest Shows P/L's Upward Slope
Source: Bloomberg

11. Nov. 26, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 2
COMMODITIES BY OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, BLOOMBERG APPLICATION SPECIALIST
Gold Support Level of 1150 Seen in Trifecta of Technical Analysis Tools
A combination of traditional trend
analysis, Fibonacci retracements and
Point & Figure highlight support around
the 1150 level for gold.
The dashed line in the top chart marks
an upward sloping trend spanning nearly
10 years that is providing support just
beneath the current price level. A
Fibonacci retracement drawn from the
start of this trend line (where the 2005
thrust begun) finds its 50% level at 1167,
in line with the trendline support. If a
second retracement is drawn from the
trough at the 2008 trend line support, its
61.8% level almost perfectly overlays the
50% of the larger retracement —
producing what technical analyst and
author Constance Brown would term a
'zone of confluence.'
The second chart is a Point & Figure
chart. The data range is the last four
years and the value of each box (row) is
$25, according to Bloomberg's default
configuration for gold. It employs the
standard three-box reversal, meaning a
column can only be reversed if the price
moves at least three boxes in the
opposite direction. The box sizes and
reversal method are effective at reducing
noise and the squared, structural nature
of the chart facilitates the identification of
range breakouts. Such a breakout
occurred in early 2013 when the long
column of "O"s broke below the red
horizontal line. At such a breakout we can
project a target with the following method:
1. Count the number of columns from the
breakout to the previous long column in
the opposite direction (inclusive).
2. Multiply the number of columns by both
the box size and reversal number.
3. Subtract the product of the above
calculation from the high between the two
original columns.
In the chart, we have 10 columns along
the red line, which produce a value of 750
when multiplied by 25 and then by 3. If we
subtract this value from the high of the
chart at 1900, the result is a projection of
1150.
Should these support levels break, the
Fibonacci retracement marks a new
support in line with the 2008 high around
1000.
— Oliver Woolf, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, is a technical
analysis application specialist at Bloomberg LP in
London. He can be contacted at
OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
Trend Analysis and Fibonacci Retracements Align
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 644}
Point & Figure Chart Supports Analysis
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 643}

12. Oct. 30, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 2
EQUITIES OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, CMT, MSTA
DAX Shows Relative Weakness, Head and Shoulders Neckline Key Indicator to Watch
The German DAX Index has been the
worst performer in U.S. dollars among the
major global markets year to date. A
combination of traditional pattern analysis
and market breadth highlights causes for
concern.
The chart to the right shows a head and
shoulders pattern that formed on the DAX
from January to October. The neckline
(dotted blue line) was breached earlier
this month to complete the formation.
Following a penetration, a rally back to
the neckline often occurs. For the DAX,
resistance at the neckline has been
broken. Since then however, price is
struggling to surge much higher.
A near-term decline back below the
neckline would trigger a target at around
7750 (the orange dashed line) set by the
projection from the breakout using the
height of the head and shoulders.
Separately, market breadth suggests
the German market is weak. The blue line
in the lower panel represents the
percentage of companies in the larger
CDAX above their 200-day averages. The
DAX only represents the 30 blue chip
companies, while the CDAX is composed
of 474 companies listed on the Frankfurt
Exchange, making its breadth a truer
reflection of the broad health of the
market. The proportion of these 474
companies above their 200-day average
is at 31 percent, having fallen slowly since
the start of this year, even while the DAX
was still rising.
The scatter chart at right compares the
breadth of the DAX with other major
global indexes. The X axis is the percent
of constituents above their 200-day
average, Y is the percentage with new
52-week highs (with a five-day
smoothing), and the size of each circle is
the year-to-date price change, in percent.
The color of each circle indicates the
percent of companies within each index
with MACD buy signals in the last 10 days
(dark green circles have the highest and
red circles have the lowest percent of
companies with MACD buy signals).
The location of the DAX in the bottom
left corner illustrates its relatively weak
breadth versus the other global markets.
Its small sphere highlights its poor 2014
return. Its dark green hue gives some
reason for optimism, which would be
reinforced if the price holds support at
the neckline.
Oliver Woolf, CAIA, CMT, MSTA, is a technical
analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He
can be contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
Return Below Neckline Would Set Up Projection Line
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 634}
DAX Market Breadth Lower Than Most Other Indexes
To replicate this chart, please contact Oliver Woolf at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net

13. Oct. 2, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 3
EQUITIES WATCH OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Bloomberg Proprietary Indicators Suggest a Turn as FTSE 100 at Support
The FTSE 100 has dropped just over 4
percent from its high in August. Various
technical signals hint that it may be about
to turn back upwards.
The markings on the chart here are
signals from Bloomberg’s proprietary
Trendstall and Vostall indicators (arrows
and triangles respectively). Over the past
18 months both of these indicators, which
outperform during periods of rangebound
price movement as they seek mean
reversion opportunities, have timed FTSE
reversals remarkably well, Volstall in
particular. Given the slight upward slant of
the range the bullish signals (blue arrows
and green triangles) have been especially
reliable. This week both a bullish Volstall
and Trendstall have been registered, the
Volstall in combination with a bullish
dragonfly doji candle (negligible body with
long lower shadow). These signals have
occurred on an upward trendline that has
now held support on no less than four
occasions.
The lower panel, which depicts the
percentage of FTSE 100 members with
an RSI below 30, is starting to decline,
implying that several stocks with strong
downward momentum are beginning to
stabilize. The reading on September 25
was the highest since June 24, 2013,
which preceded an 11 percent rally.
The backtested results of Volstall as a
standalone stop and reverse strategy
(from Bloomberg’s ) verify theBT<GO>
effectiveness of the Volstall signals on the
FTSE during its sideways movement.
— Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is an application specialist at Bloomberg LP in London.
He can be contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
Trendstall and Vostall Indicators Signal FTSE 100 Reversal
Source: Bloomberg
Backtesting of Vostall Support Strategy
Source: Bloomberg

14. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32014//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 29
True Strength Index (Double Momentum)
The True Strength Index (TSI) was created by William Blau and introduced in Stocks and Commodities magazine. It is an
oscillator calculated as the ratio of a double smoothed 1 day net change divided by a double smoothed 1 day absolute
change. An exponential average is then applied to the ratio in a similar fashion to the MACD indicator.
The formula which can be replicated via .Lite in
STDY<GO> is:
Double Smoothed PC
PC = C - C>>1;
FS = EMAvg(PC, 23);
SS = EMAvg(FS, 13);
Double Smoothed Absolute PC
absPC = Abs(PC);
aFS = EMAvg(absPC, 25);
aSS = EMAvg(aFS, 13);
TSI
TSI = 100 * (SS / SSa);
Signal
Signal = EMAvg(TSI, signal);
As seen in the chart below, the double exponential
smoothing technique of the TSI (middle panel) results in
a very similar output to the MACD (lower panel).
However, a key benefit of the TSI is that it is scaled,
thus making it easier to identify extreme (perhaps
overbought / oversold) levels, and also to draw
comparisons across different securities.
17. Strategy creation and backtesting

15. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32014//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 30
The TSI Double Momentum strategy is as follows: as a trend filter, only longs can be taken when TSI is greater than 0 and
only shorts when TSI is less than 0. The entry and exit points are then generated by the crossovers between the TSI and its
Signal line. As it is a medium to long term trend following strategy a weekly periodicity is employed.
The chart of the S&P 500, below, is colour coded to depict where the trades would occur – the blue bars represent the long
trades and the red the short.
Although this strategy could be easily replicated with the MACD, the benefits of the TSI are obvious from an observational
perspective. For example, the TSI resistance at the overbought level twice marked exhaustion in 2012, whilst the
subsequent support at the same level in 2013 and 2014 highlighted trend strength.
17. Strategy creation and backtesting

16. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32014//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 31
Once the study has been created in STDY<GO> the strategy can easily be built and tested in BT<GO>. Just select the TSI
from the User Defined Studies and then copy the rules as per the image below.
No stop loss has been added as the exits on the bearish crossovers ensure that any drawdowns are limited, whilst the >0 /
<0 filter ensures that trades are never taken contrary to the direction of the major trend.
From the Simulation Control tab the strategy assumes an initial capital of $100,000, and the simulation window is the last 20
years on a weekly basis, thus a substantial testing period.
17. Strategy creation and backtesting

17. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32014//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 32
The results below demonstrate that the strategy produces steady gains over time.
Although out of 39 trades over the 20 years there are marginally more losing than winning trades, the average winner is just
over twice the average user and, most importantly, the strategy substantially limits the drawdowns. The greatest loss over
the period is reduced to 26.41% in contrast to drops of over over 50% in the S&P over the same interval.
17. Strategy creation and backtesting

18. THEQUARTERINBRIEF–Q32014//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 33
However the real benefit of the strategy becomes apparent when it is diversified over a basket of indices.
The chart below is the cumulative profit with an initial $100,000 investment in all the 18 major global equity benchmarks from
the front page of WEI<GO>.
What is extremely impressive is not only the consistency of the gains but also the smoothness of the equity curve.
17. Strategy creation and backtesting

19. Aug. 21, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 4
INDICATORS APPLIED OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Identifying Important Levels on the FTSE-100
During the past year the FTSE-100 has
been fluctuating within a slightly upward
channel. Within this mean reversion
phase, where TD Combo Setup 9s (in
green) and Bloomberg’s Volstall indicator
(blue and red arrows) have combined to
form signals in close proximity, important
reversals (highlighted in amber) have
occurred.
TD Combo is the proprietary study of
Tom Demark’s Market Studies LLC.
Bloomberg’s Volstall indicator identifies
changes in trend acceleration via the rate
of change of a moving standard deviation.
Bars painted pink highlight extreme
acceleration according to Volstall. The
arrows subsequently mark the point at
which the trend acceleration stops, often
anticipating a reversal.
Of course, the past year should be read
in the context of the longer-term picture
shown by the second chart at right. Note
there are two barriers that must be
penetrated for an attempt toward 7,000 to
transpire. The first and most obvious is
the ceiling around 6,894. The second is
the lower line of the channel from 2011
which, having previously formed support,
has now inverted into resistance.
Should the resistance hold as it has
previously, there is a series of clear
support levels starting with the recent low
around 6,530 and followed by the upward
sloping trendline from the 2009 low (red),
currently around 6,500. Beyond that, the
2013 low matches not only the 2010-2011
highs around 6,100, but also a 38.2
percent Fibonacci retracement of the
move since 2011. In the event of an
extremely deep correction, the 2011 low
around 4,800 is exactly the 61.8 percent
retracement of the entire move since the
2009 bottom.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 601<GO>}
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 600<GO>}

20. Aug. 7, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 3
FX WATCH OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Ichimoku Cloud Signals Bullish U.S. Dollar Versus Japanese Yen
According to CFTC data, in the week
ending July 29, leveraged funds
decreased their net short positions the
most since March 11 by 12,812 contracts.
It should be noted that Ichimoku, one of
the most commonly employed technical
studies in Japan, supports this outlook.
For the purpose of clarity the Conversion
and Base lines have been removed from
the charts at right.
In the daily chart at right, the price has
exploited the vulnerability of the cloud’s
recent thinness to burst through. What
differentiates this breakthrough from the
failed breaks earlier in the year is the
subsequent follow through of the lagging
line, highlighted by the blue circle. The
red circles mark where the lagging line
failed to corroborate the price action.
This signal is made stronger by the
context of the weekly Ichimoku chart,
below right, where the price has found
firm support in recent weeks at the top of
the cloud (dotted black circle on the right).
This may support a renewed move
upwards. The four black circles on the left
demonstrate how effectively the cloud has
provided resistance when the price was
beneath.
The lower panel on the second chart is
the MACD and the blue circle marks the
current development of a bullish MACD
crossover. Although a positive sign in
isolation, it is even more significant given
its occurrence without the MACD having
dropped below 0 as it indicates strong
momentum in the longer term. Additional
support was also found at the one-year
moving average (blue line).
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 592<GO>}
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 593<GO>}

21. July 10, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 3
INDICATORS APPLIED OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Market Breadth Shows S&P 500's Technical Health Still Strong
U.S. equities continue to push to
all-time highs with the S&P 500 index up
more than 20 percent during the past
year. While some analysts are concerned
about the sustainability of the rally,
market breadth indicators suggest that
the health of the index remains strong.
Market capitalization-weighted indexes
such as the S&P 500 over-represent the
performance of larger members, while
market breadth indicators equally weight
all members in the index according to a
specified measure. As a result, market
breadth indicators can often better
illustrate the underlying technical health of
the index.
The top panel of the chart at right is the
S&P 500 price, the middle panel the
percentage of stocks above their 50-week
moving average, and the lower panel the
percentage of stocks making new
52-week highs (green) and lows (red).
The fact that more than 80 percent of
S&P 500 constituents remain above the
50-week moving average, coupled with
the fact that significantly more stocks are
hitting new highs than lows, are both
technical positives.
The new scatter plot chart{GS<GO>}
shown at bottom right allows for a
comparison of breadth measures across
different global equity markets. The
scatter plot chart shows major global
equity indexes from the {WEI<GO>}
World Equity Index function. The X axis
represents the percentage of members
above the 50-week moving average and
the Y axis is a 5-week smoothing of the
percentage of new 52-week highs. For
additional context, the color scale
highlights the percentage of members
with a Moving Average Convergence
Divergence (MACD) buy signal in the last
10 days. The sphere represents
year-to-date performance.
In relative terms, the S&P 500 index,
shown at the top right of the chart,
compares favorably with the other
markets across all four technical criteria.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical
analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP in
London. He can be contacted at
OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 581<GO>}
Source: Bloomberg

22. May 29, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 2
ENERGY WATCH OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Indicators Suggest WTI Crude Primed for Correction
Since the early part of this year, West
Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has
bounced in a range between the
low-to-mid 90s on the downside to about
105 on the upside. Such a market is ideal
for the employment of mean reversion
indicators to define entry and exit points,
two of which, highlighted in the chart
above, suggest that WTI is primed for a
correction.
The arrows on the price chart are
signals generated from Bloomberg’s
proprietary Volstall indicator (this study
will soon be made publicly available but
please contact the author in the meantime
to learn how to program the study via .Lite
in ). The signals, derived fromSTDY<GO>
a rate of change of moving standard
deviation, highlight loss of acceleration in
the prevailing trend and thus anticipate
possible reversals. A red bearish signal
was generated on May 28.
The indicator in panel two, also created
via .Lite in , applies BollingerSTDY<GO>
Bands to a regular 14-day Relative
Strength Index (RSI) in order to create
dynamic overbought/oversold (OB/OS)
levels that change with the strength and
direction of the trend. The regular 70/30
OB/OS levels have been retained for
comparison purposes (horizontal lines).
On three occasions since February (the
most recent one marked by the vertical
line on May 22), the adapted RSI
has triggered signals that would not have
occurred with the standard OB/OS levels
because of the contracted nature of the
price action.
The lower panel displays the Kairi
indicator, which simply states the
percentage deviation from a given moving
average. At the time of writing the Kairi
indicates that the current price is 1.98
percent above its current 20-day mean
which, overlaid on the price, is at 101.55.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical
analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP in
London. He can be contacted at
OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Source: Bloomberg
This chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at {G BBTA 568<GO>}

23. Apr. 17, 2014 Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies 4
METALS WATCH OLIVER WOOLF, CAIA, MSTA
Nickel May Have Begun New Uptrend After Three-Year Bear Market
After a three-year decline of 55.55
percent, nickel has recently had a
significant bounce. Various bullish signals
have hinted this move was due and may
be pointing to a new uptrend.
During the six months from September
2013 until March, nickel contracted into a
particularly tight range. This range is
highlighted by the blue box on the candle
chart, and is depicted even more clearly
by the corresponding box on the Bollinger
Bandwidth in the lower panel. With
Bollinger Bandwidth alone, it is difficult to
objectively measure what should be
considered a low value for Bandwidth as
this will vary from product to product. This
is where John Carter’s Squeeze, a
variation of which is in the bottom panel,
provides extra clarity.
Comparing Bollinger Bandwidth to
Keltner Bandwidth, calculated with ATR
rather than standard deviation, results in
a more standardized, objective measure
of whether the Bandwidth is truly low or
not. The histogram itself is momentum in
the shape of the MACD histogram and is
colored red when the Bollinger Bands
contract within the Keltner; a Squeeze.
The reversion from red to black signals a
potential breakout, the direction of which
is defined by the direction of the
histogram. The orange dashed line at the
previous highs marks the next level of
resistance. Should that break, there is
significant further upside potential.
The scatter plot on the right is
republished from Technical Strategies'
Quarter in Brief review, originally
published on April 8. It contained a
valuable clue that nickel was primed for a
surge.
Its previous three-month performance,
displayed on the X axis, was fairly
positive. But of all the commodities in the
diagram (taken from the UBS Bloomberg
CMCI Composite Index), it had by far the
greatest three-month change in
aggregate open interest, implying an
accumulation of positions during the
narrow range period. At the other end of
the scale, natural gas had a sharp
decrease in aggregate open interest, which was compounded by high 60-day
realized volatility (sphere size).
Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
netcontacted at owoolf@bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
The top chart is available on the Bloomberg terminal at G BBTA 530 <GO>.

24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
BRIEF
Technical
Strategies 03.20.14www.bloombergbriefs.com
analysis By Oliver woolf, caia, msta
After the recent decline in the Russian
MICEX index amid the political tension in
the Crimea region, there now appears to
be a confluence of technical support lev-
els. Should the predicament worsen, and
support break, Fibonacci analysis can
help identify further support levels below.
The chart at right displays monthly
price action of the MICEX on a loga-
rithmic scale from 2001. The low of the
current candle is perfectly poised at a
juncture between two technical levels.
The first of these is the dashed upward
sloping trend line from 2001, at which
the rebound from the 2008 collapse
occurred. The second is the 2010 low
marked by the solid, horizontal blue
line. Having held strength at these lows,
the current price is now residing above
the 2011 lows highlighted by the lower
orange line of the descending triangle.
Taking a closer look at the last six
years on a weekly basis in the chart on
page two, Fibonacci analysis adds some
extra color.
In addition to the support levels men-
tioned above, the recent fall halted pre-
cisely at the 50 percent retracement of
the move from 2008 to 2011. By focusing
more closely on the last two weekly can-
dles, highlighted in the golden shaded
FX WATCH. Eoghan
Leahy says the euro’s
break above 1.40
may target a move
back to 2011 highs. Page 3
indicators applied. Cynthia A. Kase
discusses how to pair candlestick charts
with other indicators to reduce false turn
signals. Page 4
index watch. Andre Lapponi looks at
the Dow’s 17-year cycle and says a longer-
term period of distribution may not be over.
Page 5
stock watch. Paul Ciana says Gilead
Sciences may be poised for a return to re-
cent highs. Page 6
■■ Stops on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP longs should be tightened as charts show signs
of trend exhaustion and bearish divergence, Karen Jones, Commerzbank head of FX
technical analysis, wrote in a note. The EUR/USD move to the 1.40 area may fail as a
negative divergence is seen on the RSI study while a Demark 13 count was recorded
on the daily chart. The EUR/GBP intraday chart shows a Demark 13 count on the 240
minute chart, which may allow for a dip toward the 0.8348/20 area.
■■ New Zealand’s dollar will approach a record high set in August 2011 after briefly
retreating amid signs that recent gains have been excessive, CMC Markets said. In the
short term, the New Zealand dollar may decline 2.5 percent from today’s level, analyst
Desmond Chua said, after its 14-day relative-strength index reached 77 yesterday, signal-
ing the currency’s 6.9 percent jump since Feb. 4 was too rapid.
■■ Wheat declined from a 10-month high as a technical indicator signaled the rally may
be excessive. Wheat’s 14-day relative strength index rose to 73.3 yesterday, the highest
since July 2012. Readings above 70 indicate prices may drop.
Russia’s MICEX Index Reaches Confluence of Support Levels
inside
Technicals
INDEXCF Index (MICEX Index)
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trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
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Calls and signals
This chart is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 516<GO>.
continued on next page

25. 03.20.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
micex index…
circle, note that most of the price action in
the last two weeks has been constrained
between the aforementioned lows from
2011 (horizontal orange line) and the 38
percent Fibonacci retracement.
In terms of targets, should there be a de-
cisive break above the 38.2 percent level,
a move back toward resistance at the
downward-sloping orange trend line would
see a return to around 1,500. If the resis-
tance holds firm there is clearly strong
support around the 1,200 level. However,
were this to give way, perhaps due to an
escalation of the political situation, the
next Fibonacci level at a 61.8 percent
retracement could provide support around
the 1,000 level.
Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analy-
sis specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He
can be contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
INDEXCF Index (MICEX Index)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
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Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
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Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies
Bloomberg Brief
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Technicals Editor
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eleahy6@bloomberg.net
Philip Sexton,MSTA
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owoolf@bloomberg.net
Middle East Akshay Chinchalkar
achinchalka1@bloomberg.net
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26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
02.06.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 3
Heikin-Ashi is an adapted version of
Japanese candlesticks which filters out
noise in a trend. For any candle the open,
high, low and close values are smoothed
by incorporating data from the previous
candle, thus maximizing the probability
that the given candle adheres to the pre-
vailing trend.
The first chart at right exhibits six
months of daily FTSE-100 data with
traditional candles, each candle employ-
ing its own day’s open, high, low and
close values.
As denoted by the numbered black
circles within the trends marked by the
dotted black lines, regardless of how
bullish or bearish a trend, there are
anomaly candles when the sentiment on
a particular day is contrary to that of the
trend; a down close in a upward trend or
vice versa.
Heikin-Ashi filters out those anomalies
by using the following calculations:
HA Close =(Open(0)+High(0)+Low(0)+Cl
ose0)/ 4
HA Open=(HA Open(-1)+HA Close(-1))/2
HA High=Max(High(0),HA Open(0),HA
Low(0))
HA Low=Min(Low(0),HA Open(0),HA
Low(0))
The result of this modification is that in
an upward trend the close and open are
positively biased and the open and low
negatively biased. The contrary is true in
a downward trend to the effect that minor
fluctuations within the trend are smoothed.
The second chart depicts the remod-
eled Heikin-Ashi candles. By retaining the
black circles on the chart it is apparent
where the analysis would have benefit-
ted from the transformation; at circles 1,
2 and 4 the candles that were previously
a bullish blue have now conformed to the
bearish red of the trend. Likewise, the
red candle at circle 3 is now blue. The
contrast is particularly stark at circle 4 for
Jan. 28, where Heikin-Ashi has converted
from a mildly bullish to extremely bearish
candle in sync with the dominant trend.
Consequently, the Heikin-Ashi formula en-
indicators applied Analysis By Oliver Woolf, caia, msta,
UKX Index (FTSE 100 Index)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
Analyzing FTSE-100 Trends Using Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks
UKX Index (FTSE 100 Index)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
These charts are available on Bloomberg at {g bbta 496 and 496<GO>}.
ables one to better follow a trend without
being thrown off track by an errant candle.
Another product of the Heikin-Ashi
alteration is that, as long as the trend is
strong, the bodies of the candles tend to
remain large. Hence, the emergence of
smaller candles, such as during the turn
of the year on the chart above, can repre-
sent a loss of momentum.
One caveat to bear in mind is that
among traditional candlesticks there exist
many patterns, the majority of which can
suggest reversals. The golden shaded
circles in the first chart highlight three of
these patterns; a morning star, an evening
star and, most recently, a series of small-
bodied candles that suggested nervous-
ness prior to the FTSE-100 correction.
While these patterns can occur using
Heikin-Ashi candles, the repercussion of
the smoothing is that the formation of the
patterns will probably be delayed. There-
fore, a blend of the two techniques may
be useful; Heikin-Ashi to retain focus on
the trend, but traditional candles for when
sudden changes in sentiment occur.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)

27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
analysis By oliver woolf, CAIA, MSTA
Author and Commodity Trading Advisor
John Carter in his book “Mastering The
Trade” showed how to combine Bollinger
Bands and Keltner Bands, depicted in
blue and red respectively on the chart of
the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) at
right, to form his TTM Squeeze indicator.
The theory is that Bollinger bands are
calculated on standard deviation and
therefore tend to be more sensitive to di-
rectional movement than Keltner bands,
which are based on Average TrueRange
(ATR). Therefore, when the Bollinger
bands contract within the Keltner bands,
it signifies that a period of consolidation
is taking place. From a volatility per-
spective, these periods of consolidation
often precede a sharp directional move.
Naturally, as a new directional move
begins, the increasing standard deviation
of the price will force the Bollinger Bands
to expand back out of the Keltner Bands,
generating a breakout signal.
Catching these signals through mere
observation of the bands is a difficult
task, so Carter simplified this into a bi-
nary indicator, which has been replicated
via Bloomberg’s CS.Lite programming
language in the {STDY<GO>} function.
The binary output has been transformed
into the colors black and red – black
representing the regular state when
the Bollinger bandwidth is greater than
the Keltner and red when the Bollinger
bandwith is smaller than the Keltner.
FX Watch. Akshay
Chinchalkar shows how
to apply Bollinger Band
squeeze analysis to the
Indian rupee. Page 3
index watch. Paul Ciana looks at the
recent rally for the IBEX 35 index. Page 4
indicators applied. Cynthia Kase
discusses TrueRange and using KaseBars
to avoid inaccurate trading signals. Page 5
global trend lines. Kevin Depew
analyzes long-term trends in global asset
classes. Page 7
BRIEF
Technical
Strategies 01.23.14
■■ The U.S. dollar’s rally to a more than two-month high is poised to reverse, trading pat-
terns show. The U.S. dollar index is approaching its 200-day moving average, which
will act as a hurdle to further strength in the greenback, according to Niall O’Connor, a
technical analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Standard technical-momentum measures
are about as overbought as they’ve been since the November high,” O’Connor said in a
Bloomberg interview.
■■ India’s rupee could decline 0.9 percent versus the dollar and retest the Jan. 3 low in
the next 10 days, Bloomberg First Word FX strategist Andrew Robinson wrote in a note.
The Jan. 3 rupee low is at 62.5600 while trendline resistance is at 61.7375. Slow stochas-
tics are at 44 and rising, which is bearish, Robinson said.
■■ The stalemate between bulls and bears in the short term is likely to continue as market
breadth for the S&P 500 index remains strong, FBN Securities technical analyst JC
O’Hara wrote in a note. The bullish trend is still in place even if equities are weak in the
near-term. According to O’Hara, a rise above 1,850 would signal a run to 1,880.
Squeeze Indicator Suggests VIX Index May Be Nearing Breakout
inside
Technicals
VIX Index (Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
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continued on next page

28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
01.23.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 2
Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies
Bloomberg Brief Ted Merz
Executive Editor tmerz@bloomberg.net
212-617-2309
Contributing Paul Ciana, CMT
Technicals Editor pciana@bloomberg.net
212-617-8229
Technicals Editor Kevin Depew
kdepew2@bloomberg.net
212-617-5166
Contributors
U.S. Brian Barry, CMT
bbarry11@bloomberg.net
Greg Bender, CMT
gbender1@bloomberg.net
Alex Cole
acole9@bloomberg.net
William Maloney, CMT
wmaloney3@bloomberg.net
Geoffrey Wakeling,
gwakeling@bloomberg.net
Latin America Andre Lapponi
alapponi@bloomberg.net
Europe Eoghan Leahy, CMT, MSTA
eleahy6@bloomberg.net
Philip Sexton, MSTA
psexton@bloomberg.net
Oliver Woolf, MSTA
owoolf@bloomberg.net
Middle East Akshay Chinchalkar
achinchalka1@bloomberg.net
Sales Contact US: +1-212-617-4050
Numbers EU: +44-203-216-4700
Newsletter Nick Ferris
Business Manager nferris2@bloomberg.net
212-617-6975
Advertising Jeff Maniatty
jmaniatty@bloomberg.net
+1-203-550-2446
Reprints & Lori Husted
Permissions lori.husted@theygsgroup.com
717-505-9701
To subscribe or to contact the editors:
tabrief@bloomberg.net
© 2014 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved.
This newsletter and its contents may not be
forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent
of Bloomberg.Please contact our reprints and
permissions group listed above for more information.
Vix breakout…
This is projected onto the Moving Average
Convergence Divergence (MACD) histo-
gram, as shown on the chart above.
When the histogram is red, it indicates
that the market is consolidating as the
Bollinger bands are tight and within
the Keltner bands. When the histogram
turns black, it implies that the Bollinger
bands have broken out of the Keltner,
perhaps heralding the breakout of a new
move. The reason for the MACD histo-
gram (John Carter employs Momentum
instead) is to define the direction of the
breakout. In the chart above we note that
three “Squeezes” have occurred dur-
ing the past year and all have preceded
volatility breakouts for the VIX. The most
recent bar on the histogram turned red
on Jan. 21.
Note that the calculations for the
Squeeze indicator have been derived
from the relevant chapter in “Mastering
the Trade.” While the fundamentals of the
indicator should be accurate, there may
be some nuances that were not revealed
in Carter’s book because it is a propri-
etary indicator.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
VIX Index (Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
Squeeze Indicator Can Help Identify Volatility Breakouts
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MONITOR
LIQUIDITY FOR
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continued from previous page

29. 1 2 3 4 5 6
analysis By oliver woolf, caia, msta,
A string of technical signals came
together to time a breakout of WTI crude
from its recent narrow range.
As the price of crude ground slowly
lower, annotated by the curved blue
line on the chart at right, it did so with
increasingly less force as highlighted
by the arrow on the Fisher Transform,
a volatility-derived study shown in the
lower panel, which diverged from the
price. The Fisher histogram becomes
red when the Bollinger bandwidth (a
measure of standard deviation) reduces
to a lesser amplitude than the Keltner
bandwidth (average true range) thus
signaling abnormally low volatility. This is
often the calm before the storm.
A first signal of selling exhaustion
showed up with the bullish crossover
in the oversold zone of the Spearman
Coefficient (not shown), which is a study
of the correlation between a sorted
numerical list of prices and their actual
sequence. The TD Combo Countdown
buy signal 13, which appeared five days
later, also suggested an exhaustion of
selling pressure.
Also note that the Dec. 3 candle rup-
tured the red Trender trailing stop, which
has offered resistance since mid-Sep-
tember. The 38.2% Fibonacci retrace-
ment perfectly coincides with the June
high to form resistance at 99.
The weekly chart illustrates how the
indicators applied.
Cynthia Kase on using
Kase bars to help focus on
price versus time. Page 3
gold watch. Tom
Schneider says technical indicators show
gold’s bearish decline won’t reverse any-
time soon. Page 4
calendar. A look at upcoming Bloom-
berg technical analysis events in Stock-
holm, Sweden, Los Angeles and New York.
Page 4
global trend lines. Alex Cole ana-
lyzes major trends of global asset classes.
Page 6
BRIEF
Technical
Strategies 12.05.13
■■ A break above 1.451 percent would confirm a new bearish phase for 5-year Treasur-
ies with a target of 1.659 percent, Bank of America Merrilly Lynch technical strategist
MacNeil Curry wrote in a note. A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed, drawn from
October 2011 at 1.219 percent to 0.534 percent in July 2012. Meanwhile, five-year yields
have been forming a support base in the 1.224-1.245 percent area, Curry wrote.
■■ The S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 are vulnerable to a minor pullback in the first half
of December, according to UBS technical analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller. A
pullback to 1,780/1,775 for the SPX wouldn’t be surprising before moving higher toward
1,850 into late December or early January, the analysts said. The Euro Stoxx target is
unchanged at 3,170 with key support at 3,000. “A break of this level would imply a more
significant pullback toward 2,960,” the analysts wrote.
■■ A technical indicator signaled the decline in Russia’s Micex index may be overdone,
according to Alexander Kostyukov, an analyst at Veles Capital in Moscow. The 14-day
relative strength index for the Micex dropped to 32.3 yesterday, the lowest since June. A
level of 30 can signal a security is oversold.
WTI Crude Oil Breaking Out From Recent Narrow Range
inside
Technicals
CL1 Comdty (Generic 1st 'CL' Future)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
Calls and signals
This chart is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 477<GO>.
www.bloombergbriefs.com
continued on next page

30. 1 2 3 4 5 6
12.05.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 2
Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies
Bloomberg Brief Ted Merz
Executive Editor tmerz@bloomberg.net
212-617-2309
Contributing Paul Ciana, CMT
Technicals Editor pciana@bloomberg.net
212-617-8229
Technicals Editor Kevin Depew
kdepew2@bloomberg.net
212-617-5166
Contributors
U.S. Brian Barry, CMT
bbarry11@bloomberg.net
Greg Bender, CMT
gbender1@bloomberg.net
Alex Cole
acole9@bloomberg.net
William Maloney, CMT
wmaloney3@bloomberg.net
Geoffrey Wakeling,
gwakeling@bloomberg.net
Latin America Andre Lapponi
alapponi@bloomberg.net
Europe Eoghan Leahy, CMT, MSTA
eleahy6@bloomberg.net
Philip Sexton, MSTA
psexton@bloomberg.net
Oliver Woolf, MSTA
owoolf@bloomberg.net
Middle East Akshay Chinchalkar
achinchalka1@bloomberg.net
Sales Contact US: +1-212-617-4050
Numbers EU: +44-203-216-4700
Newsletter Nick Ferris
Business Manager nferris2@bloomberg.net
212-617-6975
Advertising Jeff Maniatty
jmaniatty@bloomberg.net
+1-203-550-2446
Reprints & Lori Husted
Permissions lori.husted@theygsgroup.com
717-505-9701
To subscribe or to contact the editors:
tabrief@bloomberg.net
© 2013 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved.
This newsletter and its contents may not be
forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent
of Bloomberg.Please contact our reprints and
permissions group listed above for more information.
Crude…
current candle is sandwiched between
critical levels above and below.
Supporting the current candle are the
converging lower line of an upwards slop-
ing channel and the declining line from the
2008 high that was previously resistance.
Providing resistance is what formerly was
support rising from the 2008 low.
That the break from the recent limbo
ought to be higher was also implied by
the Spearman, which traversed its moving
average in the oversold area (lower panel)
of the chart above.The blue vertical lines
mark where this has occurred historically.
The blue and red arrows on the chart
appear when the blue Volstall in the
middle panel crosses below its 1-day lag
(shown in red). Volstall is a Bloomberg-de-
signed study that highlights the decreas-
ing acceleration of standard deviation
which often precedes a reversal. The
61.8% retracement in the first chart would
see a move towards the center of the
channel around 103.5.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
CL1 Comdty (Generic 1st 'CL' Future)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
TRACK ECONOMIC
FORECASTS
ECFC
<GO>
This chart Is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 478<GO>.
continued from previous page

31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
11.14.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 5
indicators applied oliver woolf, caia, msta
Contrary to the principles of efficient-
market hypothesis, it has been demon-
strated that momentum can persist. This
was discussed in David Aronson’s book,
‘Evidence-Based Technical Analysis’,
with reference to a study conducted by
Jegadeesh and Titman. Their method
was to simulate a portfolio which would
be rebalanced semi-annually so as to
be long the stocks with the best perfor-
mance during the previous six months
and long those with the worst.
Bloomberg’s factor backtesting engine,
FTST, can be used to replicate such
a strategy. Based on a factor model
it sorts a given universe of securities
into percentile buckets periodically. In
the first chart at right, the members of
the Euro STOXX 600 have been re-
balanced into quintiles on a semi-annual
basis since 2002 according to their
distance from a 130-day (c. 6 months)
simple moving average.
The chart proves that since 2002, mo-
mentum has indeed persisted in Europe as
the performance of the quintiles cascades
sequentially from one to five. Quintile one,
which includes the stocks with the stron-
gest momentum from the previous period,
has significantly outperformed the others
and is the only quintile to have substantially
surpassed its 2007 high. Similarly, quintile
five shows that momentum also persisted
among the worst performers.The Q spread
in the lower panel of the chart depicts the
cumulative performance of quintile one
versus quintile five.The growth of the Q
spread over time highlights that the model
has performed fairly consistently.
If the model is run over a shorter win-
dow of five years, however, with weekly
rather than monthly rebalancing and a
20-day moving average to represent one
month, the order of the quintiles flips so
that the fifth becomes the best performer
and the first the worst.
This may indicate how integral to mo-
mentum the time component is. It seems
that those trends which have endured
over time are likely to persist whereas
shorter term bursts have a higher prob-
ability of mean reversion.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Factor Backtesting Engine Shows Momentum Persistence in Euro Stoxx 600
MONITOR COMMODITY
PLAYS TO FIND
OPPORTUNITY CPLY
<GO>

32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
08.08.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 4
The Volstall indicator can be used to help
identify important reversals and is based on
Bloomberg’s proprietary Trendstall indica-
tor. Trendstall is derived from the Average
Directional Index (ADX), a component of
the Directional Movement Indicator (DMI
indicator). The theory behind Trendstall
is that the rate of change of the ADX can
be used to measure trend acceleration.
When the slope of that rate of change turns
negative at an extreme it detects the loss
of acceleration in a trend before it stops to
consolidate or reverse.
Volstall is similar except that it uses
moving standard deviation as the underly-
ing factor rather than the ADX. Chart one
shows Bollinger Bandwidth (panel 2), a
proxy for standard deviation, and the ADX
(panel 3) on the British pound-U.S. dollar
cross. The triangles are Trendstall.
To create Volstall use CS.Lite in
STDY<GO>. The ‘Expression’ section
is where the code for the study is written.
Parameters at the top are variable inputs
for the expressions such as look back pe-
riods, and the ‘Output’ lines at the bottom
define which of the expressions are visible
when the study is charted or built into a
strategy. All possible inputs for ‘Expression’
section can be found in the ‘Syntax Help’
on the right hand side. The image at right
displays all the required code for Volstall.
The third expression in the study, which
is a 1-period lag of the rate of change,
can identify the point at which the rate of
change turns downward.
It is possible to backtest Volstall using
BT<GO>. While the indicator identifies
reversals, it does not define the direction, so
RSI has been added. Signals where the rate
of change is greater than 15 percent have
been isolated to avoid too many signals.To
do this create a new strategy and select Vol-
stall and RSI from the available factors on the
left (Volstall will be in ‘User Defined Studies’).
The first rule: cover and go long when
Volstall Vol ROC crosses below Volstall Lag
AND Volstall ROC > 15 AND RSI < 50.Add
a rule to close and go short. In the second
rule replicate the first rule but change RSI to
> 50. Save the strategy and click on ‘Analyze’
to see the results.
Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
indicators applied Analysis By oliver Woolf, caia, msta
Identifying Reversals With Bloomberg’s Propietary Volstall Indicator
GBP Curncy (British Pound Spot)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
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33. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
07.11.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 4
indicators applied oliver woolf, caia, msta
Most trading on the euro-U.S. dollar
over the last year has occurred within
a range of around 1.28 to 1.32. With
EUR-USD having fallen as low as
1.2808 on July 5, various signals suggest
that the bottom of this range may again
provide support.
This is highlighted by the red area in
TAS Pro’s TAP Map distribution histo-
gram in the top chart at right. The TAS
Pro TAP Map dynamically calculates
and displays a sideways, color coded
frequency distribution histogram by
measuring time at price, a method for
aggregating trading data that has its
roots in Auction Market Theory and clas-
sic Market Profile. These “profile maps”
graphically represent areas of market
balance and interest.
Meanwhile, the Candle Sessions, a
reversal indicator based on Japanese
candlestick counting, have often found
reversals at a count between 8 to 10. As
of July 9, the date this article was writ-
ten, the EURUSD pair is registering a 9.
Simultaneously, the Fisher Transform
indicator is at an extreme low of minus
4.40 standard deviations. The Fisher
Transform indicator uses a Gaussian
probability density function (Gaussian
PDF) as opposed to a more traditional
bell-shaped probability density func-
tion to calculate the position of the price
compared to its range. The last time
Fisher dropped so low on EURUSD was
on Dec. 22, 2009. As the second chart
at right demonstrates, this also occurred
on a Candle Sessions 9 count. Over the
next 17 days the price moved up around
three figures before eventually succumb-
ing to Trender resistance and conse-
quently resuming the downtrend.
Should a similar pattern repeat and
the EURUSD rally from the current low,
Trender resistance is now at 1.3044.
— Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analy-
sis specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He
can be contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
Identifying Key Support, Resistance Levels for EURUSD
EUR Curncy (Euro Spot)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
EUR Curncy (Euro Spot)
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“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
trading and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing
on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.
Bloomberg ®Charts 1 - 1
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FINANCIAL CONDITIONS WATCH:WILL LOW INTEREST RATES ENCOURAGE EXCESSIVE RISK TAKING, AGAIN?

34. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
05.02.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 3
Sales of Samsung smartphones surged
56 percent in the first quarter, capturing
one third of the global market. Technical
analysis backs the company’s strong per-
formance and suggests Samsung’s stock
should also continue to rise.
The first chart at right shows the stock
on a long-term logarithmic scale and
illustrates how Samsung has grown at a
steady rate over the last 30 years, barely
veering more than two standard devia-
tions from its regression line, below which
it currently resides.
The second chart is a daily for the
past two years and highlights the stock’s
upward trend with support just below the
current price. A small triangle has formed,
which if broken on the upside, may project
a target toward 1.74M.
Ichimoku analysis (the third chart)
shows that since August 2012 the cloud
has provided support on no fewer than
five occasions, all circled. The most recent
instance suggests that Samsung could be
primed to resume its trend, having faltered
slightly since the turn of the year.
This positive outlook is dependent on
the levels of support in all three charts
holding firm. While they suggest that now
may be the right moment to enter the
trend, a break below support in any of the
three would be a bearish warning sign.
Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net
equities Analysis By Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA
005930 KS Equity (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd)
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
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005930 KS Equity (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd)
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Technicals Suggest Samsung’s Long-Term Bullish Trend Set to Continue
005930 KS Equity (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd)
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35. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
03.21.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies 7
indicators applied Analysis By oliver woolf, caia, msta
MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index) MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index)
MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index) MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index)
MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index)
MADX Index (Madrid Stock Exchange General Index)
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“BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”). BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic
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A number of market breadth indicators
suggest the negative trend for the Madrid
Stock Exchange General Index remains
intact.
The image above shows a logarithmic
bar chart of the Madrid Stock Exchange
General Index in panel one with a 1-year
moving average. Panel two depicts the ac-
cumulated value of net advancers minus
decliners. The lower panel shows the per-
cent of members within the index above
their 200-day moving average (blue) with
a 10-period moving average (purple).
By drawing levels at 80 and 20 on the
percentage in panel three one can treat
it as an oscillator with overbought and
oversold zones. As the raw percentage
value can be quite volatile, the smoothed
moving average helps to identify clear
entry and exits points into and from these
zones.
Like the Relative Strength Index (RSI),
this indicator behaves very differently
depending on the context of the market.
In a range bound or volatile market, such
as that since 2007, the overbought and
oversold zones highlight extreme market
moves, which should anticipate some
mean reversion. These are all the more
significant if they occur at key support
or resistance levels, such as at the start
of February, circled in red on the chart
above.
However, a sustained period within
these zones is indicative of a prolonged
trend, either bull or bear. This is because
the majority of stocks are continuing to
make new highs or lows, such as in the
period from 2003 to 2007 highlighted
by the blue rectangle. Although the line
dipped below 80 on a couple of occa-
sions during this period, the breakdown in
July 2007 was more important as it was
confirmed by a break of the 1-year moving
average on the price chart.
The cumulative line of advancers minus
decliners in panel two (derived from the
net daily value, which can also be charted
but is not displayed here) is useful for its
divergences from the price at tops and
bottoms. These occur at a top because
the ratio of advancing stocks to declining
stocks begins to fall before the market
cap-weighted index which is more heavily
weighted to larger stocks, and vice versa
at the bottom.
The red and green arrows highlight
these divergences in the Madrid Stock
Exchange General Index. Support and re-
sistance lines on the cumulative line, such
as those drawn in blue, also highlight
longer term broad market trends.
The failure to remain above 80 in panel
three, or to break the resistance line in
panel two, suggests that the downward
sloping price ceiling is firm for the time be-
ing as the market struggles to make any
sustained advances.
Were we to see a new bull trend, an
overbought signal in panel three and a
trend line break in panel two may provide
the first clues.
(Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA, is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can be
contacted at OWoolf@Bloomberg.net)
Leading Market Indicators Suggest Downtrend for Spanish Stocks Remains Intact
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36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
analysis By Oliver Woolf, CAIA, MSTA
The FTSE 100 index has recently
broken out to the upside from a range
within which it has traded for the last
three years, approaching its high
from early 2008. Meanwhile, technical
signals on multiple timeframes suggest
that this level could act as resistance
and force a correction.
The Fisher Transform indicator, shown
in the lower panel of chart one, uses
a Gaussian probability density func-
tion (as opposed to a more traditional
bell-shaped probability density function)
to calculate the position of the price
compared to its range. In this way it “de-
trends” the data and is therefore useful
in identifying market extremes regard-
less of whether the market is range-
bound or trending.
The bands drawn at a two-to-three stan-
dard deviation range above and below
the mean should contain 95-to-98 percent
of the price movement. Last week’s read-
ing of 3.49 on the weekly chart was the
highest in several years. Its occurence in
conjunction with Demark TD Combo 13
sell signal (illustrated in pink) suggests
that the FTSE may have become over-
extended near the 2008 high.
The TD Combo indicator is designed
to anticipate potential market rever-
sals prior to their completion through
a multi-phase process consisting of
setup and countdown. Potential price
exhaustion is displayed on the chart
with a 13, indicating the completion of
ASIA WATCH. Jonathan T.
Lin says the Korean stock
exchange’s pattern is simi-
lar to the S&P 500 in the
late 1980s. Page 3
indexes. Andrew Stone says the S&P
500 may have reached trend exhaustion
as it nears the 2007 highs. Page 4
emerging markets. Andre Lapponi
says inter-market analysis is signaling an
important change in Brazilian equities and
fixed income. Page 5
global trendlines. Alex Cole re-
views the trendlines for global currencies,
bonds, commodities and equities. Page 8
BRIEF
Technical
Strategies 02.07.13
■■ While U.S. stock market indicators are mixed – breadth is expanding and monthly
momentum is now positive even as trading volume remains disappointing – “there is cur-
rently little evidence of a major market top,” independent technical analyst Louise Yamada
wrote in a February monthly report.Yamada sees tentative signs of a possible new struc-
tural bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up four years in a row and a
fifth up year is a “very rare event” occuring only in structural bulls in 1924, 1985 and 1991.
■■ Tin, this year’s second-best performing base metal on the London Metal Exchange, is
poised to form a double bottom, which will help it advance to the highest level since 2011,
according to Dhiren Sarin, chief technical strategist for Asia Pacific at Barclays PLC.
■■ The selloff that has driven Treasury 10-year notes to their worst yearly start since
2009 is poised to reverse, according to MacNeil Curry, chief rates and currencies techni-
cal strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The risk-on move is starting to dete-
riorate and we are in the process of a turning trend from medium-term bearishness to
medium-term bullishness,” Curry said in a telephone interview. “We rallied off of recent
yield highs in a manner that suggests that the trend has turned.”
Technical Indicators Suggest Possible Correction for FTSE 100 Index
inside
Technicals
UKX Index (FTSE 100 Index)
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Calls and signals
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