On November 26, Ambassador McFaul gave a presentation, “President Obama’s Worldview: Implications for Russia,” to students at Moscow International University.

1. Michael McFaul
U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation
Spaso House
12/16/2013
Twitter: @McFaul
www.facebook.com/amb.mcfaul

2. President Obama’s Worldview:
Implications for Russia

3. Philosophy
• Win-Win, Not Zero Sum
• Mutual Respect
• Most Issues Are Transnational
– Values
– Security
– Economic Development

4. “The pursuit of power is no
longer a zero-sum game -progress must be shared.”
-President Obama, Moscow, July 2009

5. Respect
“To begin with, let me be clear: America
wants a strong, peaceful, and prosperous
Russia. This belief is rooted in our
respect for the Russian people, and a
shared history between our nations that
goes beyond competition. Despite our
past rivalry, our people were allies in the
greatest struggle of the last century.”
- President Obama, Moscow, July 7, 2009

6. Mutual Respect:
Commemorating Our Shared Past
February 2013

7. Policy Priorities
•
•
•
•
•
1. Ending Wars
2. Fighting Al Qaeda and other terrorists
3. Asia-Pacific Rebalance
4. “Prague Agenda” on Nuclear Weapons
5. Expanding Markets
– Trans-Pacific Partnership
– Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
– Means for strengthening US economy
• 6. Supporting Universal Values

8. Universal Values
“So we stand up for universal values because
it’s the right thing to do. But we also know
from experience that those who defend
these values for their people have been our
closest friends and allies, while those who
have denied those rights -- whether terrorist
groups or tyrannical governments -- have
chosen to be our adversaries.”
-President Obama, UN General Assembly, September 23, 2010

9. Motivations for Promoting Universal Values
“America supports these values because they are moral, but also
because they work…
The arc of history shows that governments which serve their own
people survive and thrive…
Governments that promote the rule of law, subject their actions to
oversight, and allow for independent institutions are more
dependable trading partners…
Democracies have been America's most enduring allies.”
-President Obama, Moscow, July 7, 2009

10. Means for Achieving Outcomes
• Engagement
– with Friends (strengthening alliances)
– with Partners
– with Foes
• Strengthening International Institutions
– United Nations Security Council
– Human Rights Council
– Regional organizations
• Restoring America’s Image Abroad
• Use of Force Only as Last Resort

11. Engagement
“We will defend our people and uphold our
values through strength of arms and rule of
law. We will show the courage to try and
resolve our differences with other nations
peacefully – not because we are naïve about
the dangers we face, but because engagement
can more durably lift suspicion and fear.”
- President Obama, Second Inaugural Address, January 2013

12. Practice of Engagement with Russia
Between:
• Leaders
• Governments
– Bilateral Presidential Commission
• Businesses
• Societies
– Government engagement of society
– Peer-to-peer connections

13. Engaging Leaders, 2013
• Then-NSA Tom Donilon in
Moscow, April
• Secretary of State Kerry in
Moscow, May
• Secretary of Security Council
Patrushev, in DC, May
• Obama-Putin meeting in
Northern Ireland, June
• Lavrov and Shoigu in DC, August
• NSA Susan Rice and Ambassador Ushakov, September
• Obama visit to Russia, September
• Kerry-Lavrov, multiple meetings and calls

14. Government to Government Engagement:
Bilateral Presidential Commission

15. Engaging Business
Obama and Medvedev Meeting with
Russian and American CEOs

16. Engaging Civil Society

17. Engaging Youth

18. Engaging Political Society

19. Engaging Religious Leaders

20. Fostering Peer-to-Peer Contacts
Between:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Universities (USRF)
Scientists
NGO leaders
Students
Sports
Musicians

21. Fields of Unnoticed Cooperation
•
•
•
•
Arctic
Space
Health and Science
Environment and
Energy
– Smart Grid Partnership
Program
– Bering Strait Region

22. RESULTS
(The U.S. Perspective)

23. 1. Ending Wars
Iraq
– Russia supported American military withdrawal
– Russia involved in economic development in Iraq
Afghanistan
–
–
–
–
Northern Distribution Network
Counternarcotics cooperation
Fuel supplies
Mi-17 helicopters and small arms

24. Afghan Transit and
Northern Distribution Network (NDN)
• Strategic Flexibility for U.S.
and ISAF Partners
• 3,500 total U.S. flights as
of August, 2013
– 660,000 U.S. personnel and troops
transited Russia
• Expanded ground and rail
transit through Russia, including reverse transit
– 53% of sustainment cargo goes through the NDN
– 75% of supplies transiting NDN go through Russia
– Over 50,000 containers shipped across Russia

25. 2. Fighting Terrorism
• Common Enemies, Common Goals
• Cooperation
– Afghanistan
– Boston
– Shared Commitment to Secure Sochi Olympics
• Some Analytic Disagreements
– Arab Spring
– Afghanistan

26. Preparing for Future Cooperation
Russian and American Troops Training Together

27. 3. Asia-Pacific Rebalance
• United States is rebalancing and sees potential
for win-win outcomes with Russia in Asia
• Russia and U.S. are both Pacific powers and
have common interests
• Cooperative efforts
– APEC in Vladivostok
– Russian membership in the East Asian
Summit

28. 4. “Prague Agenda”
• New Start Treaty
• Close Cooperation on Iran
– UNSC Resolution 1929
– P5+1
• Shared interests in North Korea
• UNSC Resolution 1874 (June 12, 2009)
• UNSC Resolutions 2087 and 2094 (January and
March 2013)
• Syria –eliminating chemical weapons together

29. 5. Expanding Economic Ties
• Russian Membership in WTO
• Granting Russia PNTR, Repeal of Jackson-Vanik
• New Visa Regime: Visas for Russians up 20% since
2012 and 51% since 2010. Over 250,000!
• 123 Agreement (Civilian Nuclear Cooperation)
• BPC, including new Innovation and Rule of Law
Working Groups
• G-20

30. U.S.-Russia Bilateral Trade
U.S. Exports to Russia hit a record $10.7 billion in 2012.
Russia continues to enjoy bilateral trade surplus.
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
Exports (U.S.)
25.0
Imports (U.S.)
20.0
Bilateral trade
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

31. Value of Russian Investments in U.S.
 Russia is the 30th largest source of FDI in the U.S.*
 As of 2012, Russian companies hold $7.3 billion in FDI stock in
the U.S.*
 Russian affiliates employ more than 13,200 Americans in the
U.S. (per 2010 statistics)
*Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

32. Value of U.S. Investments in Russia
 U.S. is the 3rd largest source of FDI in Russia*
 As of 2012, U.S. companies hold $14 billion in FDI stock in
Russia*
 U.S. affiliates employ more than 112,000 Russians in Russia**
*Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
**Conservative estimate based on employment statistics the 13 largest U.S.
investors in Russia.

33. Top U.S. Investors in Russia
Company Name
Investment
Industry
ExxonMobil
$10 billion
Oil & Gas
Boeing
$7 billion
Aircraft
Chevron
$4 billion
Oil & Gas
Conoco Phillips
$4 billion
Oil & Gas
Pepsi
$4 billion
Consumer
Coca-Cola
$3 billion
Consumer
Ford
$2 billion
Auto
General Motors
$2 billion
Auto
John Deere
$500 million
Manufacturing
Intel
$500 million*
Technology

34. Major Russian Investors in the US
Company Name
Investment
Industry
Severstal North
America
$3.5 billion
Steel
Evraz
$2.46 billion
Steel
TMK Pipe
$1.2 billion+
Steel Pipe
Digital Sky
Technologies
$1.08 billion
ICT (Facebook,
Twitter, etc)
Novolipetsk Steel
(NLMK)
$1 billion
Steel
RusNano
$760 million
Medical
Mechel
$436 million
Coal

35. Innovation
Bloomberg’s Global Innovation Index 2013: U.S. 1st; Russia 14th
Why cooperate:
•Facilitate connections
•create opportunity
•share ideas on increasing the
•competitiveness of both innovative economies
How:
•Private partnerships: -U.S.-Russia Innovation Working Group:
•Developing connections between innovative regions
•Improving the legal framework for innovation
•Sharing best practices on commercialization
-Spaso Innovation Series:
•U.S. innovation thought leaders to Russia
-Skolkovo- MIT

36. 6. Supporting Universal Values: Challenges
• Arab Spring
• Internal Developments in Russia
– Ouster of USAID
– Information campaign against U.S., inflaming antiAmericanism
– Problematic laws (NGO registration laws, treason
law, LGBT legislation)
– Renunciation of adoption agreement – Ban on U.S.
Parents Adopting Russian Children

37. Where Are We Now?
• Fundamentals of the US approach to Russia are the same now
as before.
• We honestly assess differences with Russia, e.g. antiAmericanism, human rights, bilateral disputes over Magnitsky,
Snowden, etc.
• However, as we are demonstrating on the issue of Syria’s
chemical weapons or Iran’s nuclear program, our leaders are
able to work together even on these most contentious issues.

38. Near Term Agenda
• Resolving the Syria crisis
• Nonproliferation (Iran and North
Korea)
• Reducing Nuclear Stockpiles
• Missile Defense Cooperation
• Increasing Trade and Investment
• Increasing Society-to-Society Ties

39. Syria
Shared Objectives
– End the bloodshed and ease the humanitarian crisis
– Eliminate Syrian chemical weapons
– Foster political transition
– Avoid state collapse
– Address threat of extremism
Different Perspectives, but New Momentum
– Presidents at G20, Kerry-Lavrov in Geneva in September
– The structure of Geneva II Dialogue, and Asad’s departure are
unresolved issues, but
– UNSCR 2118 – Unanimous Agreement to Eliminate Syrian CW, is a
product of U.S.-Russia diplomacy and collaboration with OPCW and
key international partners.

40. Iran
Diplomacy opened up a new path
toward a world that is more secure -a future in which we can verify that
Iran's nuclear program is peaceful
and that it cannot build a nuclear
weapon.
– President Obama November 23, 2013

41. Key points of the agreement:
Iran has committed to:
• Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical
connections required to enrich above 5%.
• To neutralize its stockpile of near-20% uranium.
• Not install additional centrifuges of any type and to limit production
of centrifuges to those needed to replace damaged machines.
• To provide daily access by IAEA inspectors at Natanz and Fordow.
•

42. Key points of the Agreement continued
In return for these steps, the P5+1 have committed to:
• Not impose new nuclear-related sanctions for six months, if Iran abides
by its commitments under this deal, to the extent permissible within
their political systems.
• Suspend certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran's auto
sector, and Iran's petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran
approximately $1.5 billion in revenue.
• Allow $400 million in governmental tuition assistance to be transferred
from restricted Iranian funds directly to recognized educational
institutions in third countries to defray the tuition costs of Iranian
students.

43. Missile Defense
• U.S. global architecture designed to protect
U.S. and allies from North Korea and Iran
• United States has no intention nor capability to
undermine strategic stability with Russia
• Cooperation with Russia on missile defense
will make both countries more secure

44. The Long Term Agenda
• Avoiding Zero-Sum Competition
• Managing Differences over Values
• Sovereignty and Universal Values
• Obama, NES, 2009: “State sovereignty must be a
cornerstone of international order.”
• Obama, NES, 2009: America has an interest “in democratic
governments that protect the rights of their people.”
• Getting Beyond Cold War Stereotypes

45. Let’s keep talking
@McFaul
www.facebook.com/amb.mcfaul
http://m-mcfaul.livejournal.com/