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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
November, 2013
Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text

• The European leveraged finance primary and secondary markets had a moderate October.
• Loan issuance was €2.3B in October 2013, while high yield issuance was €5.3B for the month.
• Secondary markets were up:
Leveraged loan markets were up 33 bps to close at 100.46;
HY markets were up 156 bps to finish 105.19.
• Estimated inflows into European HY funds for October are estimated to be a gigantic €1.32B,
bringing the estimated year to date number to €4.87B.
• The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for October, with returns at 1.02%, slightly
below the 1.35% seen in September. This brings the YTD return to 7.78%.
• Just one CLO priced this month, Grosvenor Place 2013-1, a €361.55M vehicle from manager CQS.

• Default rates were markedly lower.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
101

99

Text
98

96

94

93

91
3/11
.

5/11

7/11

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

9/11

11/11

1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12

10/12 12/12

2/13

4/13

6/13

8/13 10/13
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices
106

102

Text
98

94
89
85
81
3/11
.

5/11

Source: Bloomberg

7/11

9/11 11/11 1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12 11/12 1/13

3/13

5/13 6/13

8/13 10/13
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
1.5%

October 2013:
+ 1.02%
September 2013: + 1.35%
Jan-Oct 2013:
+ 7.78%
Jan-Oct 2012:
+ 7.84%

Text
1.0%

0.6%

0.1%

-0.4%

10/12

.

11/12

12/12

1/13

Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
18

Text

HY bonds

Loans

€billions

14

9

€5.3B

5

€2.3B

0
10/12
.

11/12

12/12

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
Volume: PIK Toggle Notes
4

PIK notes

Text

PIK Toggle Notes

€billions

3

2

1

0
2006
.

2007

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

YTD 10/21/13
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
Default Rate by Principal Amount

Default Rate by Issuer Count

16%

16%

13%

13%

10%

10%

Text

6%

6%

3%

0%
2/09
.

3%

0%
2/09

2/10

2/11

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

12/11

10/13

2/10

12/11

2/12

10/13
Themes To Watch For
Text

• The forward calendar for new M&A transactions is still anemic; however, investors
are flush with cash from a high level of repayments.
With PE backed issuers expected to file for their IPOs, that number seems likely
to rise.
• A slew of CLOs are expected to price before the end of the year.
However even with the pickup in new issue CLOs, there is still not enough to
replace existing CLOs.
Text

Text

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engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be
used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P
Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause,
for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES
DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A
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Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations
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November 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update November, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • The European leveraged finance primary and secondary markets had a moderate October. • Loan issuance was €2.3B in October 2013, while high yield issuance was €5.3B for the month. • Secondary markets were up: Leveraged loan markets were up 33 bps to close at 100.46; HY markets were up 156 bps to finish 105.19. • Estimated inflows into European HY funds for October are estimated to be a gigantic €1.32B, bringing the estimated year to date number to €4.87B. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for October, with returns at 1.02%, slightly below the 1.35% seen in September. This brings the YTD return to 7.78%. • Just one CLO priced this month, Grosvenor Place 2013-1, a €361.55M vehicle from manager CQS. • Default rates were markedly lower.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 101 99 Text 98 96 94 93 91 3/11 . 5/11 7/11 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 10/13
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 3/11 . 5/11 Source: Bloomberg 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 5/13 6/13 8/13 10/13
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 1.5% October 2013: + 1.02% September 2013: + 1.35% Jan-Oct 2013: + 7.78% Jan-Oct 2012: + 7.84% Text 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% -0.4% 10/12 . 11/12 12/12 1/13 Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 6. Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 18 Text HY bonds Loans €billions 14 9 €5.3B 5 €2.3B 0 10/12 . 11/12 12/12 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 7. Volume: PIK Toggle Notes 4 PIK notes Text PIK Toggle Notes €billions 3 2 1 0 2006 . 2007 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 10/21/13
  • 8. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% Text 6% 6% 3% 0% 2/09 . 3% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 12/11 10/13 2/10 12/11 2/12 10/13
  • 9. Themes To Watch For Text • The forward calendar for new M&A transactions is still anemic; however, investors are flush with cash from a high level of repayments. With PE backed issuers expected to file for their IPOs, that number seems likely to rise. • A slew of CLOs are expected to price before the end of the year. However even with the pickup in new issue CLOs, there is still not enough to replace existing CLOs.
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