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Russian Nuclear Submarine
Accidents Survey
Ole Reistad
Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority

1
Russian Nuclear Submarine
Accidents Survey
Ole Reistad
Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
All safety-related events 1958–2007 (annual/
cumulative (right axis)) distributed by vessel category

140

14

120

12

100

10
80

8

60

6
4

40

2

20

0
1959

1965

1971

1977

1983

1989

1995

1. gen submarines

2. gen submarines

3. gen submarines

2001

0
2007

LMC
3

No. of safety-related events (cumulative) (right y-axis)

Number of events

160

16
Number of events

18
All safety-related events 1958–2007 distributed
by safety significance (1–7) (left axis) and events with release
of radioactivity (cumulative) (right axis)

18

30

16
25
12

20

10
15
8
6

10

Number of events

Number of events

14

4
5
2
0
1959
0

1965
1

1971
2

3

1977
4

1983
5

1995

2001

0
2007

1989

Year
7

Events with release of radioactivity (accumulated)
4
150
100
50

2007

2001

1995

1989

1983

1977

1971

1965

0
1959

In-service years (annual)

200

Operational years (cumulative)

Annual (left) and cumulative (right) vessel-operatingyear (VOY) for Russian nuclear submarines
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1

6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46

Year

Year

1. gen (VOY)

2. gen (VOY)
LMC (VOY)

All classes (total VOY)

2. gen (VOY)

1. gen (VOY)

3. gen (VOY)

3. gen (VOY)

LMC (VOY)

5
80
0

60
0

30
0

10
0

12

12

10

10

6

4

2

Number of vessels

8

0

Vessel operating days

3 0 0 -1
0 0
6 0 00 -4 0 00
9 0 0 00 00 0
1 2 0 00 7 00 0
-1 00
0
1 5 00 0 00 0
0 -1 0 0
1 8 00 0 3 00
0 -1 00
2 1 00 0 6 00
0 -1 00
2 4 00 0 9 00
0 -2 00
2 7 00 0 2 00
0 -2 00
3 1 00 0 5 00
0 -2 00
3 4 00 0 8 00
0 -3 00
3 7 00 0 2 00
0 0 -35 00
0 0 00
-3 00
80
00
0

10
00
11
00
-1
20
13
0
00
-1
40
15
0
00
-1
60
17
0
00
-1
80
19
0
00
-2
00
0

90
0-

70
0-

50
0-

20
0-

0-

Num ber of vessels

Vessel operating days (left) and distance (right) for
first-generation vessels

8

6

4

2

0

Vessel distance traversed (miles)

6
Safety-related event
rate (events (annual)/
VOY (annual))

Safety-related event rate (annual) - annual number of
events/ annual vessel operating years (all vessel
classes)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1959

1979

1999

Year

1. generation vessels

2. generation vessel

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1959

1979

1999

Year
3. generation vessels

LMC vessels

7
Mean-time between safety-related events, 1959–2007 (left)
and 1959–1984 (right) with confidence interval

1000
MTBF (in-service years)

MTBF (in-service years)

1000

100

10

1

100

10

1

100

1000
VOY (years)

10000

100

1000

10000

VOY (years)
8
Mean-time between safety-related events involving the
release of radioactivity with confidence interval

MTBF (in-service years)

10000

1000

100

10
100

1000
VOY (years)

10000
9

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Russian Nuclear Submarine Accidents Survey

  • 1. Russian Nuclear Submarine Accidents Survey Ole Reistad Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority 1
  • 2. Russian Nuclear Submarine Accidents Survey Ole Reistad Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
  • 3. All safety-related events 1958–2007 (annual/ cumulative (right axis)) distributed by vessel category 140 14 120 12 100 10 80 8 60 6 4 40 2 20 0 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 1. gen submarines 2. gen submarines 3. gen submarines 2001 0 2007 LMC 3 No. of safety-related events (cumulative) (right y-axis) Number of events 160 16 Number of events 18
  • 4. All safety-related events 1958–2007 distributed by safety significance (1–7) (left axis) and events with release of radioactivity (cumulative) (right axis) 18 30 16 25 12 20 10 15 8 6 10 Number of events Number of events 14 4 5 2 0 1959 0 1965 1 1971 2 3 1977 4 1983 5 1995 2001 0 2007 1989 Year 7 Events with release of radioactivity (accumulated) 4
  • 5. 150 100 50 2007 2001 1995 1989 1983 1977 1971 1965 0 1959 In-service years (annual) 200 Operational years (cumulative) Annual (left) and cumulative (right) vessel-operatingyear (VOY) for Russian nuclear submarines 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 Year Year 1. gen (VOY) 2. gen (VOY) LMC (VOY) All classes (total VOY) 2. gen (VOY) 1. gen (VOY) 3. gen (VOY) 3. gen (VOY) LMC (VOY) 5
  • 6. 80 0 60 0 30 0 10 0 12 12 10 10 6 4 2 Number of vessels 8 0 Vessel operating days 3 0 0 -1 0 0 6 0 00 -4 0 00 9 0 0 00 00 0 1 2 0 00 7 00 0 -1 00 0 1 5 00 0 00 0 0 -1 0 0 1 8 00 0 3 00 0 -1 00 2 1 00 0 6 00 0 -1 00 2 4 00 0 9 00 0 -2 00 2 7 00 0 2 00 0 -2 00 3 1 00 0 5 00 0 -2 00 3 4 00 0 8 00 0 -3 00 3 7 00 0 2 00 0 0 -35 00 0 0 00 -3 00 80 00 0 10 00 11 00 -1 20 13 0 00 -1 40 15 0 00 -1 60 17 0 00 -1 80 19 0 00 -2 00 0 90 0- 70 0- 50 0- 20 0- 0- Num ber of vessels Vessel operating days (left) and distance (right) for first-generation vessels 8 6 4 2 0 Vessel distance traversed (miles) 6
  • 7. Safety-related event rate (events (annual)/ VOY (annual)) Safety-related event rate (annual) - annual number of events/ annual vessel operating years (all vessel classes) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1959 1979 1999 Year 1. generation vessels 2. generation vessel 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1959 1979 1999 Year 3. generation vessels LMC vessels 7
  • 8. Mean-time between safety-related events, 1959–2007 (left) and 1959–1984 (right) with confidence interval 1000 MTBF (in-service years) MTBF (in-service years) 1000 100 10 1 100 10 1 100 1000 VOY (years) 10000 100 1000 10000 VOY (years) 8
  • 9. Mean-time between safety-related events involving the release of radioactivity with confidence interval MTBF (in-service years) 10000 1000 100 10 100 1000 VOY (years) 10000 9