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Concept Sharing
                                                                    Workshop on Financial Literacy
                                                                             in School Education




SEPTEMBER 2011




   A New Dimension in Risk Management: Managing the Risk of Financial Models – Part 2

                  SEBI Financial Education Resource Persons Workshop

                      Pocket Money Programme in Thane and Vashi
FOREWORD




                            NISM recently held its first convocation ceremony for students of the
                            PGPSM and CFERM programmes and it was a memorable occasion for
                            more reasons than one. This issue contains a coverage of the event
                            along with photographs that some of those who attended the event
                            will cherish for a long, long time. We are also sending a copy of the
                            Convocation Address delivered by the H'ble Chief Guest, Padma
                            Vibhushan Dr. C. Rangarajan at the event, along with this issue of
                            NISM Update.
                            This months issue also contains the second and concluding part of the
                            article A New Dimension in Risk Management: Managing the Risk of
                            Financial Models. If you've enjoyed reading the first part, do make
                            sure you catch up with the final part.
                            Also in this issue are details of a unique concept workshop organized
                            by NISM for developing a curriculum for financial literacy in school
                            education. The programme was attended by representatives of all
                            regulatory agencies, viz. RBI, SEBI, IRDA, PFRDA along with
                            representative from NSE, BSE and CBSE.
                            NISM also conducted two programmes for school teachers under the
                            Pocket Money programme for school teachers in Thane and Navi
                            Mumbai, respectively. Along the same lines, a 7-day workshop for a
                            new batch of Financial Literacy Resource Persons for the Western
                            region was held at NISM Bhavan in August.
                            There's all this and more in this issue of NISM Update. As always, do
                            keep writing to us with your feedback and comments.

                            NISM UPDATE Team




                            NiSM
                                                            NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SECURITIES MARKETS
                                                            NISM Bhavan, Plot No. 82, Sector - 17,
                                                            Vashi, Navi Mumbai - 400 705
                                                            Phone: +91- 022-66735100-106 | Fax: 022-66735110
                                                            www.nism.ac.in




2   NiSM   September 2011
convocation
     NiSM




NISM held its first Convocation for students of the    dignitaries and guests. Mr. Soneji, Registrar, NISM
Post Graduate Programme in Securities Markets          then presented the activity report of the institute.
(PGPSM) and Certificate in Financial Engineering       He highlighted the achievements of the institute,
and Risk Management (CFERM) on September 9,            especially the progress achieved in certification of
2011 at the Y. B. Chavan Centre, Nariman Point,        securities markets intermediaries, NISM's efforts
Mumbai. These long-term programmes were                in implementing SEBI's initiative of creating
offered under the aegis of the School for              awareness about financial literacy amongst the
Securities Education (SSE) at NISM. The                masses, the value additions to the industry
ceremony was presided by Mr. U. K. Sinha,              through knowledge dissemination and
Chairman, Board of Governors, NISM. Padma              interactions on key issues by thought leaders
Vibushan Dr. C. Rangarajan, Chairman, Economic         from India and abroad, among others. Mr. Soneji
Advisory Council to the Prime Minister was the         also presented the plans for the institute during
Chief Guest.                                           the coming years.

The programme started at 6:30 p.m. at Rangswar         The convocation certificates were presented by
Hall, Y. B. Chavan Centre with the invocation of the   Mr. U. K. Sinha, Chairman, Board of Governors,
Saraswati Vandana. Prof. G Sethu, OSD & In-            NISM. Apart from the certificates, there was the
charge NISM, extended a warm welcome to the            State Bank of India sponsored Gold Medal for the
                                                                                    September 2011      NiSM   3
September 09, 2011




 4   NiSM   September 2011
student securing top rank in PGPSM along            The H'ble Chief Guest Padma Vibhushan
with a cash prize of Rs. 1 lakh and a Canara        Dr. C. Rangarajan, in his convocation
Bank sponsored Gold Medal for the student           address, spoke about the thrust given by the
securing top rank in CFERM. The medals along        institute in providing education and training
with the citation certificates to these two top     to prepare ready-made professionals to fill
ranking students were distributed by H'ble          the gap in the securities markets. He
Chief Guest Padma Vibhushan Dr. C.                  provided insights of successes and failures
Rangarajan. Mr. Amalendu Gupta won the SBI          of regulators in various parts of the world.
medal while Mr. Chaitanya Nemali won the            He also pointed out that while India is on the
Canara Bank medal for best academic                 growth path, a constant vigil must always be
performance for PGPSM and CFERM,                    maintained on the financial markets to stay
respectively.                                       on course. Addressing the student
                                                    community, he said “Please maintain always
While delivering his address, Mr. U. K. Sinha,      a professional approach with high ethical
Chairman, Board of Governors, NISM and              standards and by doing so you will serve the
Chairman of SEBI articulated SEBI's plan for        country the best.” (Copies of Dr. C.
building a strong institute in NISM. He said        Rangarajan's Convocation Address, printed
that the vision for NISM is to actively             in the form of a booklet, were distributed to
collaborate with the securities markets             everyone at the end of the ceremony.)
fraternity and academia to take the institute
towards the nex t level of growth.                  Mr. U. K. Sinha presented the Chief Guest a
Congratulating all students, he said “this          memento on behalf of NISM. The
certification will help you not only in getting a   convocation ceremony was followed by
better position in life but also to contribute      dinner.
meaningfully to the growth of the securities
markets.”




                                                                      September 2011      NiSM       5
A NEW DIMENSION IN RISK MANAGEMENT:
    MANAGING THE RISK OF FINANCIAL MODELS – PART II
                                             AKHLAQUE AHMAD, LECTURER, SCHOOL OF SECURITIES EDUCATION, NISM



                                                            Are models really responsible?
              Excerpts from Part 1
                                                            At a conference in February 1998, an industry
    Regardless of what type of stock market                 trade magazine called Derivatives Strategy,
    transaction one performs, risk is always present.       sponsored a discussion group titled “First Kill All
    People need a fast and reliable way to calculate        the Models”. This group reflects the recent
    and control the risk involved in stock trading….        backlash against financial models. Many figures
                                                            in the financial industry question whether
    The functioning of the Black-Scholes Model is           models can match a trader's skill and gut intuition
    based on the use of stock options. What makes           about market dynamics.
    stock options so appealing is that the purchaser
    knows that the limit of his/her losses can only be      Derivatives make the news, because, like an
    the premium price. However, there are no limits         airplane crash, their losses can be dramatic and
    to his/her gains, because the limit of the value of     chaotic. Enormous losses by Proctor & Gamble
    the stock is theoretically limitless….                  and Gibson Greetings and the bankruptcies of
                                                            Barings Bank and Orange County, California have
    If there were a formula that could tell you the fair    been attributed to the use of models.
    price for an option while taking into account all
    necessary factors, it would come of great use to        However, Scholes says that it was not so much the
    the financial world….                                   formula itself that caused these losses, rather its
                                                            misuse by market traders. Every statistician and
    This is where the Black-Scholes Option Pricing          mathematician knows you cannot predict the
    Model comes in. Black and Scholes found a               future with 100% accuracy. Laws as rigid as the
    theoretical way to neutralize risk. They                laws of physics do not govern the market. Peter
    discovered that they could reduce risk by creating      Fisher, a New York economist says: “Math doesn't
    a balance in which all movements in the markets         drive financial markets, people drive financial
    cancelled each other out… .                             markets, and people are not predictable. We do
                                                            not yet have a universal theory of human
    Although a marvellous achievement, there was a          behaviour or human motivation.”
    practical problem with the formula. It assumed
    that markets were always in equilibrium; that           It was not the model by itself that caused these
    supply equals demand. A Harvard graduate by the         losses, but the blind faith that market traders put
    name of Robert Merton solved this problem by            into it. They all jumped at the prospect of making
    introducing the notion of continuous time....           money without risk. However, this formula
                                                            cannot eliminate risk, it can only minimize it. Like
    So overwhelming was the sudden mass use of the          many mathematical models, it relies on inputs
    Black-Scholes Model, that when the stock market         and assumes a functioning market. It is a
    crashed in 1978, the influential business               powerful way to manage risk, but it's not a crystal
    magazine Forbes put the blame squarely onto             ball. Scholes says this equation should be used as
    that one formula....                                    a tool for making decisions, not a platform from
                                                            which all decisions should be made.



6   NiSM   September 2011
Fisher says: “If a random bolt of lightning hits you      us to be very humble in applying mathematics to
when you're standing in the middle of the field, it       markets, and to be extremely wary of ambitious
feels like a random event. But if your business is to     theories, which are in the end trying to model
stand in random fields during lightning storms,           human behaviour. We like simplicity, but we
then you should anticipate, perhaps a little more         should remember that it is our models that are
                                                          simple, not the world.
robustly, the risks you're taking on.”
                                                          We do need models and mathematics – you
This formula is a method to calculate these risks,
                                                          cannot think about finance and economics
not a risk neutralizer. “There is a danger of             without them – but one must never forget that
accepting models without carefully questioning            models are not the world. Whenever we make a
them,” says Joseph A. Langsam, a former                   model of something involving human beings, we
mathematician who develops and tests models               are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into
for fixed- income securities at Morgan Stanley.           Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit
Thus, Modelers are not the culprit for all financial      without cutting off some essential parts. And in
losses, but traders' blind faith in them.                 cutting off parts for the sake of beauty and
                                                          precision, models inevitably mask the true risk
What care should be taken?                                rather than exposing it. The most important
                                                          question about any financial model is how wrong
Many traders still use the ideas behind the Black-
                                                          it is likely to be, and how useful it is despite its
Scholes Options Pricing Model, if not the model
                                                          assumptions. You must start with models and
itself. The fundamental ideas behind the equation         then overlay them with common sense and
forever changed the stock market. Today, traders          experience.
use many principles of the Black-Scholes Model as
guides through the treacherous waters of the              Many academics imagine that one beautiful day
stock market. For this, Scholes and Merton                we will find the 'right' model. But there is no right
became Nobel laureates.                                   model, because the world changes in response to
                                                          the ones we use. Progress in financial modelling
In finance we study how to manage funds – from            is fleeting and temporary. Markets change and
simple securities like dollars and yen, stocks and        newer models become necessary. Simple, clear
bonds, to complex ones like futures and options,          models with explicit assumptions about small
                                                          numbers of variables are therefore the best way
subprime CDOs and credit default swaps. We
                                                          to leverage your intuition without deluding
build financial models to estimate the fair value of
                                                          yourself.
securities, to estimate their risks and to show how
those risks can be controlled. How can a model
tell you the value of a security? And how did these                          References
models fail so badly in the case of the subprime
CDO market?                                               Dammers, Jerry (1998). “Option Pricing: The Concept &
                                                          the Black- Scholes Method” Valuemetrics, Inc. (2000)
Models are tools for approximate thinking; they
                                                          Devlin, Keith. (November 1997). “A Nobel Formula”
serve to transform your intuition about the future        Mathematical Association of America (2000)
into a price for a security today. It's easier to think
intuitively about future housing prices, default          Hull, J.C. (2010). “Options, Futures, and other Derivatives
rates and default correlations than it is about CDO       New York” Prentice Hall.
prices. CDO models turn your guess about future
housing prices, mortgage default rates and a              Rubash, Kevin. (1998). “A Study of Option Pricing
                                                          Models” Bradley University (2000)
simplistic default correlation into the model's
output: a current CDO price.                              Scott Patterson (2010). ”The Quants: How a New Breed
                                                          of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly
Our experience in the financial arena has taught          Destroyed It” Crown Business New York




                                                                                         September 2011         NiSM    7
CONCEPT SHARING WORKSHOP ON
    FINANCIAL LITERACY IN SCHOOL EDUCATION




                     Mr. Ramesh Krishnamurthi, Director-Capital Markets, Ministry of Finance, addressing the group

    NISM organized a concept sharing workshop on             anomalies. He also said that awareness about
    Curriculum Development in Financial Literacy in          financial transactions has to be created at an early
    School Education at the premises of Securities           age so that people understood concepts like
    Exchange Board of India, New Delhi, on August            Aadhar, PAN, KYC, among others. Presently, he
    16, 2011. The programme was attended by                  said, people's knowledge was limited to knowing
    representatives from all regulatory agencies, viz.       about tax savings instruments. He was confident
    RBI, SEBI, IRDA, PFRDA, and from NSE, BSE, NISM          that financial education would make India a
    and CBSE.                                                powerhouse in terms of development.
    Addressing the gathering, Mr. Ramesh                     Mr. Prashant Saran, Whole Time Member, SEBI
    Krishnamurthi, Director – Capital Markets,               emphasized on the 3Rs followed in the past –
    Ministry of Finance informed the participants            aRithmetic, Reading and wRiting that makes one
    that curriculum development on financial literacy        literate. Today's school syllabus should be
    was very close to the heart of the ministry of           integrated with financial education without
    finance and that they would like to take all efforts     causing any extra burden on books, he said. He
    to ensure that financial literacy is inculcated as       mentioned the case of people working in the
    part of the school education. He noted that in a         financial sector but having inadequate
    country of 1.2 billion people, only 2 million            knowledge about managing their own finance as
    people were having demat accounts. Likewise, he          an example of poor awareness about personal
    added, a vast segment of people were excluded            finance. It's imperative to inculcate knowledge of
    from the reach of banking services. Curriculum           managing their own finances at an early age, he
    development in Financial Literacy would                  said. And the ideal way to start early, he said,
    therefore play a key role in addressing these            would be to introduce the topic at the school




8   NiSM   September 2011
stage itself. He informed the gathering
that he was glad to know that the
ministry of finance has taken a step
forward in this direction.
Speaking on the occasion, Prof. G
Sethu, Officer on Special Duty, NISM
mentioned that supply side and
demand side are to be strengthened
to make the financial services industry
grow efficiently. In financial markets,
supply side dominates the demand
side. Prof. Sethu informed the
gathering that regulators were putting
their efforts to make it balanced. He
also noted that while developing the
curriculum, we need to think where
India would be after 10 - 20 years and
efforts should be taken early to see
that the young generation are
provided with the right inputs on
financial education.

                                          Mr. Prashant Saran, Whole Time Member, SEBI


       The workshop has decided to take the process forward by compiling
       materials on various topics on financial literacy. The respective regulatory
       agencies have been entrusted the responsibility of preparing the material
       while NISM will coordinate the entire exercise.




                                                                               September 2011   NiSM   9
SEBI FINANCIAL EDUCATION RESOURCE PERSONS
       WORKSHOP




       The second round of the recruitment and              Money discussed the importance of money in
       empanelment of Resource Persons for SEBI's           terms of value. Participants were also briefed
       Financial Education was held at Navi Mumbai          about asset classes (physical assets, financial
       during August 20-27, 2011. Forty eight resource      assets, etc.) along with concepts of safety,
       persons were recruited and empanelled. The           liquidity and returns. The session on banking
       workshop was inaugurated on August 21, 2011.         covered deposit and loan products. The various
       The function was attended by Prof. G. Sethu, OSD,    features of secured loans and unsecured loans
       NISM, Shri K. Sukumaran, Dean-SIEFL, Mr. G. P.       were debated so as to get a fair understanding of
       Garg, Chief General Manager, SEBI and Mr. N          credit markets. There were also sessions on
       Hariharan, General Manager, SEBI.                    insurance and SEBI's modules on financial
       The workshop began with a session on the various     education. At the end of the sessions, the
       regulatory agencies and the roles they perform.      candidates were asked to make a presentation on
       The participants were provided a macro picture of    selected topics. The workshop also had two
       capital markets wherein the functioning of stock     resource persons of the previous batches share
       exchanges, clearing corporations, depositories,      their experiences at the ground level with the
       market intermediaries, viz. brokers, distributors,   new batch. Also included was a session on
       merchant bankers, custodians, etc. were              Communication Skills to impart soft skills that
       discussed. This session was followed by one on       would be required while conducting workshops.
       Financial Planning where the significance of         Mr. Amit Trivedi anchored the entire workshop.
       planning and budgeting finances of individuals       Certificates were distributed to all participants at
       were discussed. The session on Time Value of         the end of the workshop.




10   NiSM   September 2011
NISM LAUNCHES ITS OWN TEST CENTRES




NISM is glad to announce that its two state-of-        Nariman Point, Mumbai
the-art test centres are now available for             1st Floor, 'C' Wing, Mittal Court, Opposite
candidates wishing to appear for certification         Vidhan Bhavan, Nariman Point, Mumbai,
examinations mandated by Securities and                Maharashtra.
Exchange Board of India (SEBI). You can register       Phone : 022-66540591-93
for any of the NISM exams by filling in the
prescribed registration form available on the
                                                       Vashi, Navi Mumbai
NISM Online Certification System at
https://certifications.nism.ac.in/.                    Ground Floor, NISM Bhavan, Plot No. 82, Sector
                                                       - 17, Near HDFC Bank, Vashi, Navi Mumbai,
The location of the two test centres are as follows:   Maharashtra.
                                                       Phone : 022-66735185-86


PREVENTION OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT AT THE
WORKPLACE
The Supreme Court of India has made it                 NISM recently held an interactive session on the
mandatory for every organization to put in place       subject to sensitize employees on the topic. Titled
preventive, corrective and punitive measures to        “Prevention of Sexual Harassment at the
eliminate sexual harassment at the place of work.      Workplace”, the session was conducted by senior
NISM has already appointed a three-member              resource person and subject matter expert
committee to deal with complaints originating          Ms. Shanti Mojumdar on Friday, July 29, 2011. All
from staff members on this issue.                      staff members of NISM attended the session.



                                                                                   September 2011      NiSM   11
POCKET MONEY PROGRAMME




     As part of our mission to spread financial literacy   The programme at Navi Mumbai was held on
     among the student community, the Pocket               August 27 and 28 in the Municipal School at
     Money programme was conducted in Thane and            Shiravne Gaon. A total of 73 school teachers
     Navi Mumbai during August 2011.                       attended the program. The inaugural session was
     In Thane, the programme was held on August 19         attended by         Mr. Chabuswar, Deputy
     and 20 at Narendra Ballal Hall within the premises    Commissioner, NMMC and Mr. Sonawane,
     of Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC). A total of      Programme Co-ordinator. Mr. Ashutosh Wakhare
     100 school teachers attended the programme.           and Mr. Murli Iyer conducted the workshop.
     The inaugural session was attended by Shri
     Ramchandra Fadtare, Sabhapati, Pre-primary and
     Secondary education and Mrs. Chaya Mankar,
     Assistant Commissioner, Pre-primary and
     Secondary education, TMC. The workshop was
     conducted by Mr. Nitin Tike, Mr. Ashutosh
     Wakhare and Mr. Murli Iyer.

12   NiSM   September 2011

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NISM Update September 2011

  • 1. Concept Sharing Workshop on Financial Literacy in School Education SEPTEMBER 2011 A New Dimension in Risk Management: Managing the Risk of Financial Models – Part 2 SEBI Financial Education Resource Persons Workshop Pocket Money Programme in Thane and Vashi
  • 2. FOREWORD NISM recently held its first convocation ceremony for students of the PGPSM and CFERM programmes and it was a memorable occasion for more reasons than one. This issue contains a coverage of the event along with photographs that some of those who attended the event will cherish for a long, long time. We are also sending a copy of the Convocation Address delivered by the H'ble Chief Guest, Padma Vibhushan Dr. C. Rangarajan at the event, along with this issue of NISM Update. This months issue also contains the second and concluding part of the article A New Dimension in Risk Management: Managing the Risk of Financial Models. If you've enjoyed reading the first part, do make sure you catch up with the final part. Also in this issue are details of a unique concept workshop organized by NISM for developing a curriculum for financial literacy in school education. The programme was attended by representatives of all regulatory agencies, viz. RBI, SEBI, IRDA, PFRDA along with representative from NSE, BSE and CBSE. NISM also conducted two programmes for school teachers under the Pocket Money programme for school teachers in Thane and Navi Mumbai, respectively. Along the same lines, a 7-day workshop for a new batch of Financial Literacy Resource Persons for the Western region was held at NISM Bhavan in August. There's all this and more in this issue of NISM Update. As always, do keep writing to us with your feedback and comments. NISM UPDATE Team NiSM NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SECURITIES MARKETS NISM Bhavan, Plot No. 82, Sector - 17, Vashi, Navi Mumbai - 400 705 Phone: +91- 022-66735100-106 | Fax: 022-66735110 www.nism.ac.in 2 NiSM September 2011
  • 3. convocation NiSM NISM held its first Convocation for students of the dignitaries and guests. Mr. Soneji, Registrar, NISM Post Graduate Programme in Securities Markets then presented the activity report of the institute. (PGPSM) and Certificate in Financial Engineering He highlighted the achievements of the institute, and Risk Management (CFERM) on September 9, especially the progress achieved in certification of 2011 at the Y. B. Chavan Centre, Nariman Point, securities markets intermediaries, NISM's efforts Mumbai. These long-term programmes were in implementing SEBI's initiative of creating offered under the aegis of the School for awareness about financial literacy amongst the Securities Education (SSE) at NISM. The masses, the value additions to the industry ceremony was presided by Mr. U. K. Sinha, through knowledge dissemination and Chairman, Board of Governors, NISM. Padma interactions on key issues by thought leaders Vibushan Dr. C. Rangarajan, Chairman, Economic from India and abroad, among others. Mr. Soneji Advisory Council to the Prime Minister was the also presented the plans for the institute during Chief Guest. the coming years. The programme started at 6:30 p.m. at Rangswar The convocation certificates were presented by Hall, Y. B. Chavan Centre with the invocation of the Mr. U. K. Sinha, Chairman, Board of Governors, Saraswati Vandana. Prof. G Sethu, OSD & In- NISM. Apart from the certificates, there was the charge NISM, extended a warm welcome to the State Bank of India sponsored Gold Medal for the September 2011 NiSM 3
  • 4. September 09, 2011 4 NiSM September 2011
  • 5. student securing top rank in PGPSM along The H'ble Chief Guest Padma Vibhushan with a cash prize of Rs. 1 lakh and a Canara Dr. C. Rangarajan, in his convocation Bank sponsored Gold Medal for the student address, spoke about the thrust given by the securing top rank in CFERM. The medals along institute in providing education and training with the citation certificates to these two top to prepare ready-made professionals to fill ranking students were distributed by H'ble the gap in the securities markets. He Chief Guest Padma Vibhushan Dr. C. provided insights of successes and failures Rangarajan. Mr. Amalendu Gupta won the SBI of regulators in various parts of the world. medal while Mr. Chaitanya Nemali won the He also pointed out that while India is on the Canara Bank medal for best academic growth path, a constant vigil must always be performance for PGPSM and CFERM, maintained on the financial markets to stay respectively. on course. Addressing the student community, he said “Please maintain always While delivering his address, Mr. U. K. Sinha, a professional approach with high ethical Chairman, Board of Governors, NISM and standards and by doing so you will serve the Chairman of SEBI articulated SEBI's plan for country the best.” (Copies of Dr. C. building a strong institute in NISM. He said Rangarajan's Convocation Address, printed that the vision for NISM is to actively in the form of a booklet, were distributed to collaborate with the securities markets everyone at the end of the ceremony.) fraternity and academia to take the institute towards the nex t level of growth. Mr. U. K. Sinha presented the Chief Guest a Congratulating all students, he said “this memento on behalf of NISM. The certification will help you not only in getting a convocation ceremony was followed by better position in life but also to contribute dinner. meaningfully to the growth of the securities markets.” September 2011 NiSM 5
  • 6. A NEW DIMENSION IN RISK MANAGEMENT: MANAGING THE RISK OF FINANCIAL MODELS – PART II AKHLAQUE AHMAD, LECTURER, SCHOOL OF SECURITIES EDUCATION, NISM Are models really responsible? Excerpts from Part 1 At a conference in February 1998, an industry Regardless of what type of stock market trade magazine called Derivatives Strategy, transaction one performs, risk is always present. sponsored a discussion group titled “First Kill All People need a fast and reliable way to calculate the Models”. This group reflects the recent and control the risk involved in stock trading…. backlash against financial models. Many figures in the financial industry question whether The functioning of the Black-Scholes Model is models can match a trader's skill and gut intuition based on the use of stock options. What makes about market dynamics. stock options so appealing is that the purchaser knows that the limit of his/her losses can only be Derivatives make the news, because, like an the premium price. However, there are no limits airplane crash, their losses can be dramatic and to his/her gains, because the limit of the value of chaotic. Enormous losses by Proctor & Gamble the stock is theoretically limitless…. and Gibson Greetings and the bankruptcies of Barings Bank and Orange County, California have If there were a formula that could tell you the fair been attributed to the use of models. price for an option while taking into account all necessary factors, it would come of great use to However, Scholes says that it was not so much the the financial world…. formula itself that caused these losses, rather its misuse by market traders. Every statistician and This is where the Black-Scholes Option Pricing mathematician knows you cannot predict the Model comes in. Black and Scholes found a future with 100% accuracy. Laws as rigid as the theoretical way to neutralize risk. They laws of physics do not govern the market. Peter discovered that they could reduce risk by creating Fisher, a New York economist says: “Math doesn't a balance in which all movements in the markets drive financial markets, people drive financial cancelled each other out… . markets, and people are not predictable. We do not yet have a universal theory of human Although a marvellous achievement, there was a behaviour or human motivation.” practical problem with the formula. It assumed that markets were always in equilibrium; that It was not the model by itself that caused these supply equals demand. A Harvard graduate by the losses, but the blind faith that market traders put name of Robert Merton solved this problem by into it. They all jumped at the prospect of making introducing the notion of continuous time.... money without risk. However, this formula cannot eliminate risk, it can only minimize it. Like So overwhelming was the sudden mass use of the many mathematical models, it relies on inputs Black-Scholes Model, that when the stock market and assumes a functioning market. It is a crashed in 1978, the influential business powerful way to manage risk, but it's not a crystal magazine Forbes put the blame squarely onto ball. Scholes says this equation should be used as that one formula.... a tool for making decisions, not a platform from which all decisions should be made. 6 NiSM September 2011
  • 7. Fisher says: “If a random bolt of lightning hits you us to be very humble in applying mathematics to when you're standing in the middle of the field, it markets, and to be extremely wary of ambitious feels like a random event. But if your business is to theories, which are in the end trying to model stand in random fields during lightning storms, human behaviour. We like simplicity, but we then you should anticipate, perhaps a little more should remember that it is our models that are simple, not the world. robustly, the risks you're taking on.” We do need models and mathematics – you This formula is a method to calculate these risks, cannot think about finance and economics not a risk neutralizer. “There is a danger of without them – but one must never forget that accepting models without carefully questioning models are not the world. Whenever we make a them,” says Joseph A. Langsam, a former model of something involving human beings, we mathematician who develops and tests models are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into for fixed- income securities at Morgan Stanley. Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit Thus, Modelers are not the culprit for all financial without cutting off some essential parts. And in losses, but traders' blind faith in them. cutting off parts for the sake of beauty and precision, models inevitably mask the true risk What care should be taken? rather than exposing it. The most important question about any financial model is how wrong Many traders still use the ideas behind the Black- it is likely to be, and how useful it is despite its Scholes Options Pricing Model, if not the model assumptions. You must start with models and itself. The fundamental ideas behind the equation then overlay them with common sense and forever changed the stock market. Today, traders experience. use many principles of the Black-Scholes Model as guides through the treacherous waters of the Many academics imagine that one beautiful day stock market. For this, Scholes and Merton we will find the 'right' model. But there is no right became Nobel laureates. model, because the world changes in response to the ones we use. Progress in financial modelling In finance we study how to manage funds – from is fleeting and temporary. Markets change and simple securities like dollars and yen, stocks and newer models become necessary. Simple, clear bonds, to complex ones like futures and options, models with explicit assumptions about small numbers of variables are therefore the best way subprime CDOs and credit default swaps. We to leverage your intuition without deluding build financial models to estimate the fair value of yourself. securities, to estimate their risks and to show how those risks can be controlled. How can a model tell you the value of a security? And how did these References models fail so badly in the case of the subprime CDO market? Dammers, Jerry (1998). “Option Pricing: The Concept & the Black- Scholes Method” Valuemetrics, Inc. (2000) Models are tools for approximate thinking; they Devlin, Keith. (November 1997). “A Nobel Formula” serve to transform your intuition about the future Mathematical Association of America (2000) into a price for a security today. It's easier to think intuitively about future housing prices, default Hull, J.C. (2010). “Options, Futures, and other Derivatives rates and default correlations than it is about CDO New York” Prentice Hall. prices. CDO models turn your guess about future housing prices, mortgage default rates and a Rubash, Kevin. (1998). “A Study of Option Pricing Models” Bradley University (2000) simplistic default correlation into the model's output: a current CDO price. Scott Patterson (2010). ”The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Our experience in the financial arena has taught Destroyed It” Crown Business New York September 2011 NiSM 7
  • 8. CONCEPT SHARING WORKSHOP ON FINANCIAL LITERACY IN SCHOOL EDUCATION Mr. Ramesh Krishnamurthi, Director-Capital Markets, Ministry of Finance, addressing the group NISM organized a concept sharing workshop on anomalies. He also said that awareness about Curriculum Development in Financial Literacy in financial transactions has to be created at an early School Education at the premises of Securities age so that people understood concepts like Exchange Board of India, New Delhi, on August Aadhar, PAN, KYC, among others. Presently, he 16, 2011. The programme was attended by said, people's knowledge was limited to knowing representatives from all regulatory agencies, viz. about tax savings instruments. He was confident RBI, SEBI, IRDA, PFRDA, and from NSE, BSE, NISM that financial education would make India a and CBSE. powerhouse in terms of development. Addressing the gathering, Mr. Ramesh Mr. Prashant Saran, Whole Time Member, SEBI Krishnamurthi, Director – Capital Markets, emphasized on the 3Rs followed in the past – Ministry of Finance informed the participants aRithmetic, Reading and wRiting that makes one that curriculum development on financial literacy literate. Today's school syllabus should be was very close to the heart of the ministry of integrated with financial education without finance and that they would like to take all efforts causing any extra burden on books, he said. He to ensure that financial literacy is inculcated as mentioned the case of people working in the part of the school education. He noted that in a financial sector but having inadequate country of 1.2 billion people, only 2 million knowledge about managing their own finance as people were having demat accounts. Likewise, he an example of poor awareness about personal added, a vast segment of people were excluded finance. It's imperative to inculcate knowledge of from the reach of banking services. Curriculum managing their own finances at an early age, he development in Financial Literacy would said. And the ideal way to start early, he said, therefore play a key role in addressing these would be to introduce the topic at the school 8 NiSM September 2011
  • 9. stage itself. He informed the gathering that he was glad to know that the ministry of finance has taken a step forward in this direction. Speaking on the occasion, Prof. G Sethu, Officer on Special Duty, NISM mentioned that supply side and demand side are to be strengthened to make the financial services industry grow efficiently. In financial markets, supply side dominates the demand side. Prof. Sethu informed the gathering that regulators were putting their efforts to make it balanced. He also noted that while developing the curriculum, we need to think where India would be after 10 - 20 years and efforts should be taken early to see that the young generation are provided with the right inputs on financial education. Mr. Prashant Saran, Whole Time Member, SEBI The workshop has decided to take the process forward by compiling materials on various topics on financial literacy. The respective regulatory agencies have been entrusted the responsibility of preparing the material while NISM will coordinate the entire exercise. September 2011 NiSM 9
  • 10. SEBI FINANCIAL EDUCATION RESOURCE PERSONS WORKSHOP The second round of the recruitment and Money discussed the importance of money in empanelment of Resource Persons for SEBI's terms of value. Participants were also briefed Financial Education was held at Navi Mumbai about asset classes (physical assets, financial during August 20-27, 2011. Forty eight resource assets, etc.) along with concepts of safety, persons were recruited and empanelled. The liquidity and returns. The session on banking workshop was inaugurated on August 21, 2011. covered deposit and loan products. The various The function was attended by Prof. G. Sethu, OSD, features of secured loans and unsecured loans NISM, Shri K. Sukumaran, Dean-SIEFL, Mr. G. P. were debated so as to get a fair understanding of Garg, Chief General Manager, SEBI and Mr. N credit markets. There were also sessions on Hariharan, General Manager, SEBI. insurance and SEBI's modules on financial The workshop began with a session on the various education. At the end of the sessions, the regulatory agencies and the roles they perform. candidates were asked to make a presentation on The participants were provided a macro picture of selected topics. The workshop also had two capital markets wherein the functioning of stock resource persons of the previous batches share exchanges, clearing corporations, depositories, their experiences at the ground level with the market intermediaries, viz. brokers, distributors, new batch. Also included was a session on merchant bankers, custodians, etc. were Communication Skills to impart soft skills that discussed. This session was followed by one on would be required while conducting workshops. Financial Planning where the significance of Mr. Amit Trivedi anchored the entire workshop. planning and budgeting finances of individuals Certificates were distributed to all participants at were discussed. The session on Time Value of the end of the workshop. 10 NiSM September 2011
  • 11. NISM LAUNCHES ITS OWN TEST CENTRES NISM is glad to announce that its two state-of- Nariman Point, Mumbai the-art test centres are now available for 1st Floor, 'C' Wing, Mittal Court, Opposite candidates wishing to appear for certification Vidhan Bhavan, Nariman Point, Mumbai, examinations mandated by Securities and Maharashtra. Exchange Board of India (SEBI). You can register Phone : 022-66540591-93 for any of the NISM exams by filling in the prescribed registration form available on the Vashi, Navi Mumbai NISM Online Certification System at https://certifications.nism.ac.in/. Ground Floor, NISM Bhavan, Plot No. 82, Sector - 17, Near HDFC Bank, Vashi, Navi Mumbai, The location of the two test centres are as follows: Maharashtra. Phone : 022-66735185-86 PREVENTION OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT AT THE WORKPLACE The Supreme Court of India has made it NISM recently held an interactive session on the mandatory for every organization to put in place subject to sensitize employees on the topic. Titled preventive, corrective and punitive measures to “Prevention of Sexual Harassment at the eliminate sexual harassment at the place of work. Workplace”, the session was conducted by senior NISM has already appointed a three-member resource person and subject matter expert committee to deal with complaints originating Ms. Shanti Mojumdar on Friday, July 29, 2011. All from staff members on this issue. staff members of NISM attended the session. September 2011 NiSM 11
  • 12. POCKET MONEY PROGRAMME As part of our mission to spread financial literacy The programme at Navi Mumbai was held on among the student community, the Pocket August 27 and 28 in the Municipal School at Money programme was conducted in Thane and Shiravne Gaon. A total of 73 school teachers Navi Mumbai during August 2011. attended the program. The inaugural session was In Thane, the programme was held on August 19 attended by Mr. Chabuswar, Deputy and 20 at Narendra Ballal Hall within the premises Commissioner, NMMC and Mr. Sonawane, of Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC). A total of Programme Co-ordinator. Mr. Ashutosh Wakhare 100 school teachers attended the programme. and Mr. Murli Iyer conducted the workshop. The inaugural session was attended by Shri Ramchandra Fadtare, Sabhapati, Pre-primary and Secondary education and Mrs. Chaya Mankar, Assistant Commissioner, Pre-primary and Secondary education, TMC. The workshop was conducted by Mr. Nitin Tike, Mr. Ashutosh Wakhare and Mr. Murli Iyer. 12 NiSM September 2011