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1. Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
OCTOBER - 2013
Dehati Aurat, Shahzada and the Agenda-setting Theory
Mr. Narendra Modi is on a warpath. As soon as BJP announced Mr.
Modis candidature for the PMs post for the 2014 elections, he’s set
the ball rolling. Sunday rallies, in different parts of the country, seem
to be the order of the day. And with these rallies he is setting the
agenda for media writings; which not only keep the Congressmen
busy through the week but also shape up common man’s perception.
This, of course, is a very useful ploy in a politician’s ‘Art of War’ book.
Interestingly, the theory behind this is called the Agenda-setting
Theory which describes the “ability [of the news media] to influence the salience of topics on the public agenda”. That is,
if a news item is covered frequently and prominently the audience will regard the issue as more important.
Agenda-setting theory was formally developed by Dr. Max McCombs and Dr. Donald Shaw in a study on the 1968
presidential election. In the 1968 “Chapel Hill study,” McCombs and Shaw demonstrated a strong correlation between
what 100 residents of Chapel Hill, North Carolina, thought was the most important election issue and what the local and
national news media reported was the most important issue. By comparing the salience of issues in news content with
the public’s perceptions of the most important election issue, McCombs and Shaw were able to determine the degree to
which the media determines public opinion. Since the 1968 study, published in a 1972 edition of Public Opinion Quarterly,
more than 400 studies have been published on the agenda-setting function of the mass media, and the theory continues
to be regarded as relevant.
Bottom of the Pyramid and the Demographic Dividend
Analysts and market gurus to describe the forces that will transform India from an under-developed nation to a developed
nation have often quoted these two terms (Bottom of the Pyramid and the Demographic Dividend). Surprisingly, we hardly
see a mention of these terms in the business press today. Exactly like how the, so-very-popular, mid cap or small cap ideas
occupy much lesser mindshare with the investment fraternity now. These classes of companies are considered pariahs!

2. Were you aware of this?
(Rs. crs)
Market
Capitalisation
Peak
(Oct ’10)
Current
(Oct ’13)
A BSE 7,300,000 6,500,000 -11%
B Sensex 3,000,000 3,300,000 +10%
% of A 41% 51%
C BSE 500 6,900,000 6,000,000 -13%
% of A 95% 92%
(rounded, Source: BSE India)
The rich keep getting richer. The gap between the haves and have-nots is increasing by the day. That’s the phenomenon
world over. In optimistic times, one generally tends to miss this. The bottom-of-the-pyramid is given a sense of false
euphoria to live with. However, the gap becomes stark and apparent when this cycle changes and pessimism sets in.
2 Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
OCTOBER - 2013

3. KEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Sep 30 - Current account deficit widens to $21.8 bn
India’s current account deficit rose to $21.8 billion or 4.9 % of the country’s GDP in the quarter ended June, official data showed Monday.
The current account deficit was recorded at $16.9 billion or 4 % of GDP in the corresponding quarter of last financial year.
http://t.in.com/eC9W
Sep 29 - RBI likely to finish scrutiny of bank licence applications in a month
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to complete initial scrutiny of 26 applications for new bank licences in a month, an RBI official
said. Thereafter, the shortlisted names would be forwarded to the Bimal Jalan panel for further action. The names will go to the High Level
Advisory Committee chaired by former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan.
http://t.in.com/9C6W
Sep 26 - India may set record wheat output this year on good rain: Government
The government today said the country’s wheat production this year may surpass the previous record of 94.88 million tonnes after good
rains took water reservoir levels to a 10-year high. India, the world’s second-biggest wheat grower, had produced a record 94.88 million
tonnes of wheat in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June), buoyed by a good monsoon. Poor rains in 2012-13 lowered the output to 92.46
million tonnes.
http://t.in.com/bDyy
Sep 25 - Indirect tax collections up 4.1% in Apr-Aug
According to a finance ministry official, in August, total indirect tax collection stood at Rs 31,200 crore, up 9 per cent from the same
month last year. Total collection of indirect taxes - excise, customs and service tax - stood at about Rs 1,67,000 crore during the first five
months of the 2012-13 fiscal.
http://t.in.com/8Dbg
Sep 25 - Coal block auction policy for private firms gets Govt nod
The Cabinet, on Tuesday, approved the methodology for auctioning coal blocks, providing for upfront and production-linked payments
and benchmarking of coal sale prices. Coal blocks will be put for auction after the Environment Ministry reviews them.
http://t.in.com/5DbZ
Sep 20 - RBI ups repo rate by 25 bps on inflation concerns, cuts MSF
The RBI raised repo rates by 25 bps to 7.5 percent in its mid-quarter policy review. The policy, however, reduced the marginal standing
facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 percent and lowered the minimum daily maintenance of the cash reserve
ratio (CRR) from 99 percent to 95 percent of the requirement, effective from the fortnight beginning September 21, 2013.
http://t.in.com/9CUP
Sep 17 - WPI, CPI divergence seen in food inflation
Data released on Monday showed that food inflation based on WPI spiked from 9.3% last August to 18.2% on an annualized basis, while
the food inflation figure for CPI for August, which was released last week, showed a decline from 12% to 11% over the same period.
http://t.in.com/7Dhk
Sep 15 - More items under duty drawback scheme for exporters
Government today rationalised the duty drawback and brought more items under the scheme for tax refund to exporters to give a boost
to overseas shipments. The revised All Industry Rates of duty drawback, which have been notified, will come into effect from September
21, a Finance Ministry statement said.
http://t.in.com/fC5W
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd. 3
OCTOBER - 2013

4. WHAT RATING AGENCIES SAY
Sep 27- India may miss fiscal deficit target of 4.8%: Fitch
The Indian government may overshoot its fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP as the 17% rupee depreciation in the last five months could
inflate the oil subsidy bill, said Fitch group company India Ratings & Research, raising the spectre of a possible credit rating downgrade.
Unless the prices of diesel, petrol and LPG are raised, the fiscal deficit could exceed 5%, it said.
http://t.in.com/6C4s
Moodys had warned India on sovereign rating September beginning. (Last month, they had talked about India’s rating not getting impacted
in account of the sharp currency depreciation). As also, S&P had talked about seeing downgrade risk rising for India last month.
INFLUENCER SPEAK
Sep 27 - India likely to see growth downgrade going ahead: Macquarie
According to Richard Gibbs, Global HD – Macquarie, the Indian economy may see a growth downgrade going ahead due to the recent
measures taken by the RBI. He recommends caution on the emerging markets as Fed tapering is still uncertain. He also adds that the
emerging markets may well have a six month respite with no movement until March of next year due to the need to install a new Fed
chairman by the end of January.
Sep 25 - Don’t see Nifty below 5K or beyond 6K; book profits: UBS
Nifty may not go below 5000-5200 level, or break out beyond 6000 in a sustainable way by 2013 end, says Gautam Chhaochharia, Head
of India Research, UBS. More clarity will emerge only post elections, more progress and economic recovery will be seen after that, but
still it is critical to buy at the right levels, he says.
Sep 25 - Mkt to dip 6-8% in few weeks; bet on telecom, auto: BofA ML
Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, Head of Research - BofA Merrill Lynch, feels that elections will now become a major overhang for the market and
things won’t pick up just because of new government. The liquidity that drove asset prices up in emerging markets is about to run dry,
and investors should now get ready for a correction.
Sep 24 - Optimistic on mkt, see Sensex at 21000 for 2013: Deutsche
Abhay Laijawala, HoR - Deutsche Equities, is constructive on the Indian market and expects Sensex to touch 21,000 by the year end.
He also believes the worst of the currency crisis is over. He believes market will continue to follow global as well as domestic cues and
will take directions from there.
Sep 24 - Mkt volatility to rise; enter with 2-3 yr frame: BlackRidge
BlackRidge Capital Advisors recommends entering the market with a 2-3 year horizon. Its MD and CEO, Arindam Ghosh, believes that
the volatility in the market is set to rise given the complexity of domestic and global factors. Pressure on the currency will also continue
in the long-term, he says.
Sep 23 - Nifty too volatile, won’t call It investor’s market: IL&FS
According to Vibhav Kapoor, Director - IL&FS, the market is extremely volatile at this point in time and therefore it is no longer a surprise
to see even 100-200 point movement on the Nifty everyday. He calls this market speculative to some extent, and considers it unfit for
investment. Kapoor further adds that Nifty is likely to trade in a broad range of 5400-6200.
4 Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
OCTOBER - 2013

5. FUND ACTIVITY FROM AROUND THE GLOBE
Sep 23 - Record equity fund inflows after Fed holds back on tapering: EPFR
Global investors committed record amounts of money into equity funds last week as the US Federal Reserve decided to avoid tapering
quantitative easing. Fund flow data provider EPFR Global shows equity funds benefited from net inflows of $25.94bn during the week
ending 18 September 2013, surpassing the previous record set in the third quarter of 2007. Meanwhile, bond funds saw their outflow
streak extend to an eighth week.
http://t.in.com/9C62
Sep 18 - Pan-European equity fund flows hit 5 year record in August: Lipper
Money flowing into pan-European equity funds hit a post-crisis monthly record in August, according to the latest estimates from fund
research firm Lipper, as evidence builds of a sustained recovery in the region. Net inflows to the 5,811 mutual funds and exchange-traded
funds (ETFs) in Lipper’s five Europe-wide equity sectors reached 5.4 billion euros in August, the third straight month of net inflows and
the biggest monthly inflow in at least five years.
http://t.in.com/cDaN
Sep 17 - Investors valuing India positively; EMs attractive: EPFR
Due to the massive beating seen in EMs, they are likely to be more attractively valued asset class, says Cameron Brandt, director-
research, EPFR Global. Cameron says that the emerging markets (EMs) equity funds in the last week have observed one of its best
weeks in terms of flows in the past 7-and-a-half months . Brandt says that there is now a renewed appetite among investors for individual
markets, leading which is Brazil and Korea. “India seems to be one of the bigger individual markets that investors seem to be reappraising
positively,” he adds.
http://t.in.com/5DkK
Source: RBI
CHART ART
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd. 5
OCTOBER - 2013

6. Why Mauritius is important to India...
As India continues to worry about capital outflows, the regions that originate most of the FDI coming into the country hold importance. As
per RBI, Mauritius continues to corner more than 44% of the FDI coming into the country. And despite the quandary over Mauritius’ tax
haven status, the government may not be able to take a firm decision on this. One may recall that India was earlier planning to review the
double-taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) with Mauritius. The reason behind the review is to prevent misuse of the treaty and track
illicit money allegedly stashed in the African island nation. The country was losing more than US$ 600 m every year in revenue because
of the tax treaty, besides incurring the risk of militant groups using it to route money into India. However, all such considerations seem
to be in the backburner for the time being. More importantly, besides Mauritius even Netherland and Cyprus seem to be emerging as
the new tax havens.
http://t.in.com/3C2B
READ YOU MAY FIND INTERESTING
Innovation: a Make-or-Buy Decision
In good times and in bad, companies often struggle with whether or not to invest in innovation. To make matters worse, many companies
have cut costs so much during the recession that they don’t have the infrastructure to grow through internal innovation. Lacking in
internal research and development, many companies grow by making acquisitions, whichresearch shows often destroy value.
But some CFOs say there’s a places for both ways of generating growth. To make the most of their investments (and to make the case
for investing at all), their companies set guidelines that help them decide when to innovate internally and when to acquire.
http://t.in.com/5Dnh
Post-deal Integration: Top M&A Concern for Directors and CFOs
Corporate board members and CFOs agree on a number of issues regarding risk oversight and value creation in M&A activities, including
viewing post-merger integration as the leading risk concern, according to a report released in August by Deloitte and Corporate Board
Membermagazine. The report, Bridging the Gap: M&A—Are CFOs and Boards Aligned?, reflects the responses of nearly 200 corporate
board members and CFOs from public companies with annual revenue of $500 million or more to a range of questions on risk issues
related to M&A. Furthermore, according to the survey, both directors and CFOs agree that the greatest cause for concern during merger
integration is achieving cultural fit.
http://t.in.com/cDcT
6 Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
OCTOBER - 2013

7. TOP 5 MONTHLY GAINERS - NSE
Stock
CMP
(Rs.)
Close on
30 Sep
2013
(Rs.)
% chg
MoM
GMR Infrastructure L 22.30 12.78 74.49%
JSW Steel 749.60 499.05 50.21%
Multi Commodity Ex 382.40 255.40 49.73%
Coromandel Internati 232.15 169.15 37.25%
Bharat Heavy Ele 141.40 103.35 36.82%
Source: stockmarketindian
TOP 5 MONTHLY LOSERS - NSE
Stock
CMP
(Rs.)
Close on
30 Sep
2013
(Rs.)
% chg
MoM
Container Corpor 696.00 1070.75 -35.00%
Gitanjali Gems 54.70 73.40 -25.48%
Essar Oil Ltd. 52.85 66.50 -20.53%
Pipavav Defence & Of 52.20 65.00 -19.69%
Adani Enterprises Lt 141.35 162.40 -12.96%
Source: rediff
FLOWS
FII (Rs. Crore) Gross Net
Purchase
/ salesMonth Purchase Sales
Sep-13 68,120 56,944 11,176
Aug-13 70,693 78,163 -7,470
YTD 5,88,441 5,39,314 49,127
DII (Rs. Crore) Gross Purchase
/ salesMonth Purchase Sales
Sep-13 19,922 29,052 -9,130
Aug-13 31,034 24,749 6,285
YTD 2,06,346 2,50,254 -43,908
Source: moneycontrol.com
SUMMARY OF CURRENT INTEREST RATES
Country/region Current rate
Previous
rate
Change
United States 0.250 % 1.000 % 16-Dec-08
Great Britain 0.500 % 1.000 % 3-May-09
China 6.000 % 6.310 % 7-Jun-12
Europe 0.500 % 0.750 % 5-Feb-13
India 7.250 % 7.500 % 5-Mar-13
Source: global-rates.com
SUMMARY OF INFLATION
Country/region Period
Monthly
basis
Yearly
basis
China 1 August, ‘13 0.50% 2.515 %
France 1 August, ‘13 0.464 % 0.869 %
Germany 1 August, ‘13 0.00% 1.531%
India 1 August, ‘13 0.85% 10.748%
Japan 1 August, ‘13 0.300 % 0.905 %
United States 1 August, ‘13 0.120 % 1.518 %
Europe 1 August, ‘13 0.128 % 1.340 %
Source: global-rates.com
Key Currency Value
52-WK
High
52-WK
Low
EUR-USD 1.35 1.37 1.27
USD-JPY 97.79 103.74 77.44
USD-HKD 7.76 7.77 7.75
USD-SGD 1.25 1.29 1.22
USD-INR 62.49 68.85 51.39
Source: Bloomberg
ENERGY COMMODITY FUTURES
Commodity Units Price Contract
Crude Oil (Brent) USD/bbl. 107.48 Oct-13
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 3.67 Oct-13
Gold Spot USD/t oz. 1,317.67 N/A
COMEX Silver USD/t oz. 21.86 Dec-13
Source: Bloomberg
INDEX
Current
% Change
over
Sep 15th
1 Year
Nikkei 225 14,484.72 8.18% 64.66%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Inde... 22,859.06 5.19% 9.69%
NASDAQ Composite Index 3,771.48 5.06% 21.03%
Shanghai Stock Exchange ... 2174.67 3.64% 4.24%
S&P 500 Index 1,681.55 2.97% 16.41%
Dow Jones Industrial Ave... 15,129.67 2.16% 11.95%
FTSE 100 Index 6,449.15 0.56% 10.80%
source: Bloomberg
INDEX
Current
% Change
over
Sep 15th
1 Year
CNX DEFTY 3,165.62 14.36% n.a.
CNX MIDCAP 6,997.95 6.83% -9.64%
CNX 100 5,621.65 6.30% 1.71%
CNX NIFTY 5,735.30 6.00% 1.50%
CNX SMALLCAP 2,739.20 4.94% -20.01%
INDIA VIX 26.65 -9.40% 57.60%
Source: NSE
SECTORAL
Current
% Change
over
Sep 15th
1 Year
CNX FMCG 17,637.40 9.83% 26.52%
CNX PSU BANK 2,134.45 9.39% -36.27%
CNX INFRA 2,135.65 9.19% -14.70%
CNX CONSUMPTION 2,453.25 8.07% 17.40%
BANK NIFTY 9,617.80 8.01% -15.78%
CNX AUTO 4,681.95 7.71% 8.94%
CNX PHARMA 7,361.05 7.47% 32.90%
CNX METAL 2,067.80 4.79% -24.37%
CNX REALTY 149.65 -0.07% -39.44%
CNX IT 8,167.80 -0.96% 29.95%
Source: NSE
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd. 7
OCTOBER - 2013

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Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Aditya Enclave, Ameerpet,
Hyderabad - 500 038
Srinivas Reddy I srinivas@fortunapr.in
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Landline:+91 079 2656 0570
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Kolkata: Chennai:
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Landline: +91 033 4060 2798
Atridev Misra I atridev@fortunapr.in
Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Fortuna Public Relations Pvt. Ltd.
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Sangeeta Panna I sangeeta@fortunapr.in
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