Newsletter january 2015 PFR

1. PARTNERS FOR RESILIENCE NEWSLETTER January 2015
Impact of energy saving stoves in Masebewa, Indonesia 2
Building with nature: utilisation of traps in Talibura, Indonesia 2
Tree planting at La Mesa Watershed, Philippines 3
Building resilience through good governance, Philippines 4
Women IGA self-help groups for a better life, Ethiopia 4
Mud-fish farming as an adaptation option for vulnerable communities in Isiolo County, Kenya 5
Second edition of camal caravan yields many successes in Kenya 6
National Governing Bodies unite for the creation of resilient communities in Guatemala 6
Climate Change Forum in Estelí, Nicaragua 7
Community level response to cyclone Hud Hud, India 8
Field visit to a mulching site in Simina village, Mali 8
Charting a way for documentation and learning in Uganda 9
Climate change impacts already felt ‘on all continents and across the oceans’, says IPCC 10
Global agreement on climate ‘important step’ closer after COP 20 in Peru. 10
RCCC’s climate training kit available online 11
New study of downstream effects of El Niño on flood risk 11
Seasonal Forecast January-March 12

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Impact of energy saving stoves in Masebewa, Indonesia
Masebewa Village is located in a low hilly area on the
island of Flores, downstream of the Loworegi River.
The area is exposed to the risk of landslides and
floods. In the past villagers were forced to cut trees in
the community forest for firewood for their
traditional stoves. A household in Masebewa used on
average 1,5 logs of about 2 meters long, and about 15
cm in diameter. Multiplied by 690 households in the
village this resulted in more than 1000 large logs used
by the village for their daily needs. Cutting down trees meant that the soil on slopes and the river
embankments became vulnerable to erosion, which resulted in increased risk of landslides and
floods.
Efforts to minimize flood risk are being discussed among all the villages in the Ria Wajo catchment
area because flood management cannot be handled by the Masebewa community alone. Joint action
among villages in the same water catchment area is needed. Besides terrace construction to
minimize the risk of landslides, Trasno and Acong, LPTP facilitators in Masebewa Village, have helped
villagers to construct energy saving stoves. This stove consumes only a third of the firewood of
traditional stoves.
LPTP taught the community how to build a small number of energy saving stoves. Villagers use local
materials to construct the stove; the only material to be purchased was cement. The cost of building
one stove is IDR 200,000 (EUR 16). The stove has various advantages. Women are able to cook food
more quickly, as the cooking time is only one third of the original cooking time with a traditional
stove. Moreover, 3 pans can be placed together on the stove, so less wood is needed to fuel the
stove. School children also indirectly benefit from the energy saving stoves. Children usually help
their mothers to collect wood after school for 3 to 4 hours. Thanks to energy saving stove, the
children go to the forest just once a week. The additional time they have in the afternoon is allocated
to reading and study before sunset because electricity is very limited in the evenings.
Mama Lusiana, one of the beneficiaries, shared her experience, ‘It doesn’t produce smoke that hurts
my eyes and I can stay in the rice field longer to take care of my plants because now I don’t have to
spend so much time in the kitchen cooking’.
Building with nature: utilisation of traps in Talibura, Indonesia
According to one of the community members, Muhoring, from Talibura village, the land in which he
lives has declined more than 100 meters from 1992 on due to tidal waves that cause abrasion. At the
same time, flooding occurs every year, in the months of February to March. These floods deposit
sediment of up to 40 cm on the mud around the mouth of the river for several days, before heading
out to sea.
After observing this situation, a study team from Bogor came to the idea to create a trap which
allows the sediment to remain in the thick mud around the estuary shore. Sediment trapped sludge

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can then be used as a zone for growing mangroves. In addition, building traps can be used to reduce
the power of ocean waves towards the shore so as to reduce the risk of coastal erosion.
Authorities of village Talibura supported the idea and issued an agreement of support. The 3 meter
wide construction is built along 180 meters using bamboo petung strips, with a total 2,600 pieces,
with locally available and natural materials and tools. Pieces of palm leaves and bamboo planks are
inserted on the side-lines of the bamboo strips, such that it can withstand the passage of sediment.
After more than 8 months, people observed sediment deposition around the construction, which
allowed for mangrove planting.
Although it is too early to claim this
approach is successful, initial results
look promising. Building with nature
means that natural repair activities
follow the pattern and behavior of
nature itself. In the longer term, this
will make it easy for the mangrove
ecosystem to be able to carry out their natural functions in providing ecosystem services such as
erosion prevention, withstand the onslaught of wind and storms and provide a source of life for
humans.
Indigenous elders of Talibura village remind that “at this location there is a useful estuary, so we
asked permission to ancestors in the river (…) keeping together this trap that lasts long and keeps us
safe.”
Tree planting at La Mesa Watershed, Philippines
Around 130 individuals from the flood-prone barangays of
Potrero and Catmon in Malabon City, and Balangkas and
Tagalag in Valenzuela City participated in the "Protect-a-
Hectare" treeplanting program of the La Mesa Watershed.
The La Mesa Watershed serves as the main source of fresh
water for Metro Manila. As the last remaining forest of its
size in the metropolis, it also absorbs carbon emissions. A
total of 720 seedlings were planted across 1.7 hectares
during the activity, with an additional 2,200 to be planted in
5.3 hectares after.
Braving the heat of the sun, participants trekked 2
kilometers to the tree-planting site. Once there, they set
upon the task of planting the young trees in rows. The
types of endemic trees planted included White Lauan, Dau,
Calumpit, Tindalo, Kamagong, and Bignay Kalabaw.
“The activity underscored how these communities are
connected to the La Mesa Watershed. Strengthening its
water absorptive capacity is a factor that could contribute
to mitigation of floods in the low-lying areas of Malabon and Valenzuela." Said Guineviene de Jesus,
PfR coordinator for the Philippines. Merdi Jean Arcilla of ACCORD, one of the PfR Project's local
implementing partners added "By planting trees, these communities now have a stake in protecting
Fig. 3 Youth participants show-off their green
thumbs after marking the Paint-A-Tree as a
sign of their participation and pledge to help
protect the La Mesa Watershed.

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the watershed from possible degradation. The campaign to rehabilitate the watershed has already
achieved much, but we must all remain pro-active and vigilant."
The PfR organizations, together with their partner communities, have committed to protect and take
care of the hectares that they have planted in for the coming years. Melchor Macabalitao, Potrero
barangay councilor, said, "This is our small contribution for the protection of this watershed, which
will continue to protect future generations of our residents."
Lessons from PfR replicated in other areas in the Philippines
Although battered by Typhoon Glenda, at least 4 towns in Camarines Sur – Bombon, Calabanga,
Canaman, and Magarao – recorded no casualty after the disaster. The reason lies in good governance
in disaster management.
“There were no casualties, households were evacuated in time, and there was not much need to
conduct search and rescue,” Canaman disaster risk reduction and management officer Mario Alma
told the participants from 20 local government units. “Everything happened according to our
contingency plans,” shared Alma at the conference dubbed “Building Resilience through Good
Governance.”
Calabanga’s effective contingency plan won the town a Gawad Kalasag Award in 2011, a national
citation for exemplary initiatives in disaster management. Calabanga undertook disaster risk
reduction (DRR) activities in vulnerable coastal and upland villages which included risk assessments,
trainings, contingency planning, drills and small-scale mitigation activities.
“We are now reaping an increased number of marine and agricultural products, a secondary
outcome of risk reduction activities that have recently proven effective during Typhoon Glenda,”
Calabanga Mayor Eduardo Severo said. Calabanga formed an alliance with Bombon, Canaman, and
Magarao to address common risks. The towns are located in the same Bicol River flood plain.
Supporting the collaboration, CARE Nederland Representative in the Philippines Celso Dulce said,
“We realize that our programs should consider the larger Bicol River Basin landscape if we are to be
effective.” According to the humanitarian groups which assist the towns, the coordinated action
enables to better address the roots of disaster risks across ecosystems and landscapes.
Women IGA self-help groups for a better life, Ethiopia
The extreme drought of 2010/11, which wiped out the livestock assets of the majority, is still a fresh
memory for the Bouluboma pastoralist community. Women are especially at risk as they have a very
low income and not enough food sources. In order to guard their social welfare, household expenses
and food security status, they organized themselves in Kersa Chobi Jirenya Saving and Credit Group.
To strengthen economic resilience of community members’ through supporting the existing systems
and structures, PfR partner ACORD provided training and financial support (ETB 60,000.00) as well as
seeds. During the first round 20 members took a loan and agreed to return it within six month period
with 10% interest. The credit beneficiaries engaged in petty trade business such as fattening of cattle
and selling goats for a better price. In total the group saved ETB 17,000.00 after the drought.

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Karsi Waqo, a mother of 3 sons and a daughter, is the member of this
group. She said: “My youngest son got sick but I saved his life because of
the loan I took (ETB 400.00) for his medical treatment. At that time I had
no cash and would have to sell my only goat for a lower price. Then
together with my husband I paid back the loan. This encouraged me to
take a loan of ETB 3,000.00 to fatten cattle and sell it for a better price.
Now I have my own source of income, my savings currently reached ETB
3,000.00 which was not the case two years ago. I am no longer worried
about health expenditures and being ble to send my children to school.
We are now planning to engage in production of haricot beans.
Personally, I want to rear more goats and cattle and change the life of the
family.”
Mud-fishing as an adaptation option for vulnerable communities in Isiolo
County, Kenya.
The main economic activities in Isiolo County,
Kenya are pastoralism and farming. The
county is prone to floods and droughts which
lead to loss of livestock and crops, food
insecurity, malnutrition and high disease
burden. As a result communities have been
relying on food aid to meet their daily dietary
needs. This approach is not sustainable in the
long run. Supporting alternative livelihoods
that could adapt to the climate and support
ecosystem was found a much better approach
to support communities.
Since a large number of the population resides
along the river, mud-fish farming was seen as an alternative livelihood for the community. The river
has an abundance of mud- fish especially during the dry period when the water levels are low.
However, communities living along the river didn’t consume fish on cultural grounds. Among the
Borana’s, one of the ethnic groups in the area, community fish is equal to snake. Only in 2006-2007
during an El Niño event, communities living along the river Ewaso Nyiro had to survive by eating fish.
This was the result of destroyed infrastructure and very limited food supply provided by the
government and humanitarian agencies.
Communities realized the potential of mud-fishing through a VCA assessment by the Kenyan Red
Cross. It was not the first time that community identified fish farming as potential source of
livelihood. However, The PfR approach is unique in the sense that the community understands and
realizes its potential by themselves. Communities were supported with a fish farming training which
included a cooking and eating demonstration, support through fishing nets and creating linkages
between fish farmers group and the ministry of fisheries to look for potential markets in their
environment or far beyond. The communities of Gafarsa, Korbesa and Mataarba are now potential
fish farmers. Hassan from Korbesa commented after coming from Nairobi to sell fish: “We do have
the capacity but sometime we are asleep”
Fig.6: member of Karsi Waqo- Karsa Chobi Jirena
Saving and Credit Coop

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Second edition of camel caravan yields many successes in Kenya
After the success of the first camel caravan in
2013 organized by PfR partners and community
organizations, PfR Kenya was able to match this
success in 2014.
A caravan of camels, men, women and children
undertook the challenge to trek more than 250
km in 6 days along the Ewaso Nyiro river. The
caravan aimed to sensitize people and local
government autorities on the need to restore,
preserve and conserve the river and to protect
it from any activity that may threaten its
continued existence.
The Ewaso Nyiro River is undoubtedly the lifeline of millions of flora and fauna that are found along
that river. Moreover, most of the economic activities carried out in Laikipia County, Isiolo County and
Samburu County entirely depend on this river, such as pastoralism, ecotourism and horticulture. Not
surprisingly, competition for scarce natural resources in the area is also a source of conflicts between
the different ethnic groups.
The caravan yielded many results. First of all, it Increased, deepened and broadened participation by
a large number of communities, conservation agencies/groups, CSOs, Media and other groups. It
created a space for dialogue in an conflict-prone area. The construction of a controversial mega-dam
in the river was raised as one important issue during the caravan. During the event, the governor
promised that he will ensure that the project will not be implemented without their full involvement.
The construction of the mega-dam could have a huge impact for both people as well as flora and
fauna along the river basin.
Moreover the caravan triggered inter-county dialogue between the counties Samburu, Isiolo and
Laikipia. The Isiolo county government agreed to host the event on an annual basis under the cultural
and tourism office and both the governor and deputy participated in the event. Actors such as local
and international media were attracted to capture the event whereas international organisations
pledged support to the cause and said they will join next years’ edition. In this way partners were
able to ensure the event is institutionalized in the area beyond the PfR programme implementation.
National Governing Bodies unite for the creation of resilient communities in
Guatemala
The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN), the Executive Secretary of the National
Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (SE-CONRED) and the National Council of Protected Areas
(CONAP), signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the consolidation of strategies and actions on
DRR, CCA and EMR. The initiative is part of the framework of the Strategic Inter-institutional Agenda
Fig.7: Participants reach Archers’ Post, the final
destination of the camel caravan

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(SIA) and its action plan promoted by PfR Guatemala with the aim of creating resilient communities
in Guatemala.
The signatory institutions work together to implement
collaborative models based on 4 building blocks: anticipate,
respond, adapt, and transform, thus comprehensively
building a collaboration based on respect for life and
livelihoods of rural communities.
The PfR partners and institutions ensure cooperation to
strengthen dialogue and concrete actions that benefit
vulnerable communities in five departments of Guatemala
where PfR partners are working: Quiche, Sololá, Zacapa,
Chiquimula and Izabal. They are focusing their work on
14,337 families and an estimated number of 85.291 people
in these areas.
This action nails down the work of the Strategic Inter-institutional Agenda launched in 2012 by PfR
Guatemala, which will strengthen resilience building of communities in Guatemala, from a holistic
perspective focusing on DRR, CCA and EMR.
The SIA began as a space for dialogue seeking common goals between public policies and strategies.
It aims to facilitate implementation of collaborative models at national level to concrete actions in
the field. It is the greatest advocacy achievement at national level by PfR Guatemala and the
umbrella under which other initiatives and results in the country are articulated and prioritized .
Some of the agreements signed by the representatives of each of the institutions are the joint efforts
to expand programs, influence networks and roundtables, position the Inter-institutional agenda and
its action plan and the promotion of technical and financial support by the alliance. Read more
A forum on climate change adaptation technologies in Estelí, Nicaragua.
On the 8th and 9th of October 2014, The Partners for Resilience alliance in Nicaragua co-organized a
forum on “technologies of adaptation to climate change, sovereignty, food security and agro-industry
in the city Estelí with the theme: Climate change is reality, adapting is a priority’.
About 250 persons among which representatives of government entities, universities, NGO’s,
community members, village organizations, municipal mayors, representative of indigenous village
Chorotega, journalists and the UNDP participated in the forum which promoted the inclusion and
mainstreaming of climate change in planning processes, the exchange of experiences and research
results and methodologies.
The national strategy for the environment
and climate change, the easy guide for the
elaboration of municipal plans and the link
between climate change and climatic
variability, were touched upon in keynote
presentations by representatives of the
general board of climate change of
MARENA. Moreover, four thematic
timetables were formed, with about 20
Fig.8: Government representatives sign the
agreements of the SIA
Fig.9: Participants at the forum in Estelí

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presentations related to the knowledge, experiences and tools aimed to strenghten the adaptation
capacity in the theme of variability, climate change and disaster risk reduction.
The PfR Alliance in Nicaragua, CARE Nicaragua, The Nicaraguan Red Cross and Wetlands International
played an active role during the fórum, leading thematic tables, and sharing de experience of the PfR
integrated approach in the sub watersheds Inalí and Tapacalí, as well as methodologies and used
tools.
“For me the forum was of great importance. This year we were affected by drought and now I
understand the cause and I have a better idea of what could happen in the future with rains and
heat. I also learned about some technologies that other producers are developing in their farms to
avoid that drought will hit us strongly. I am bringing a lot of information to share at my farm and in
my community.” Expressed Gersan Muñox Dávila,producer of the community of San Francisco,
municipality of San Lucas.
The most important results of the programme were the institutionalization of the forum in the Las
Segovias región, as a space of consultation on climate change and risk reduction, the strenghtening
of virtual platforms and other means to communicate the experiences, methologies and results of
climate change research and the exchange between producers. The forum finalized with a market
were information about good practices on measures to adapt to climate change was shared.
Community level response to cyclone Hud-Hud, India
The recent community level response to Cyclone Hud-Hud, which made landfall along the eastern
coast of India on 12th
October, 2014, is testament to the effectiveness of Community Managed
Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR) promoted by the Partners for Resilience project being implemented
in Odisha, India. PfR partners in two model districts – Ganjim and Puri – in close collaboration with
the district administration, supported the Village Level Disaster Response Committees (VLDRC) and
the PfR project team in getting the communities in 7 project villages prepared by: (i) effectively
relaying early warning messages received from the government; (ii) stocking adequate food supplies;
(iii) protecting critical belongings; and (iv) ensuring timely evacuation to cyclone shelters.
Even though a redirection in the cyclone’s path prevented a full-fledged disaster situation, some
casualties were recorded. Three persons died during an evacuation (2 in Kendrapada and 1 in Puri),
saline water entered 200 acres of paddy fields in 8 villages of Astaranga and Rajnagar blocks and a
1500 metre sand dune eroded at 3 locations devastating 2000 Casuarina saplings planted by Self
Help Group (SHG) members. In light of this PfR partners are guiding and facilitating the affected
communities’ interaction with Krishi Vigyan Kendra (agricultural extension center) scientists to
resolve their agriculture and plantation concerns. PfR partners are also supporting the Odisha
Government and Inter Agency Group (IAG) in undertaking damage assessments in 8 districts; while at
the same time helping communities restore normality in their respective villages.
Field visit to a mulching site in Simina village, Mali
To support resilience buidling, partners of PfR Mali are including conservation agriculture within the
village action plans. One of the techniques used within conservation agriculture is mulching, which
means that harvested crop straws are being applied on the land. In order to show the effects of

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mulching on the production of sorghum. To this end, one ha. of land was fenced with iron and shared
into two plots (one covered with harvested crop straws and the second without straws) and both
seed with local sorghum have been compared.
Partners in Mali organized a learning ‘open door’ visit for PfR partners and around 30 beneficiaries of
Konna and Borondougou rural districts on October 15, 2014 in Simina village, in the Konna district.
During this visit, participants could see the effects of the mulching technique with harvested crop
straw and on the drought-resistant sorghum production”.
Participants were able to witness clear differences
between the mulching area and the control site. Plants
from the site were mulching was applied had very long
thick stems with long and well furnished ears, while in
the control plot stems were smaller with small ears.
The production of the mulching area has been
1600kg/ha against 600kg/ha for the control.
The visitors posed various questions during the visit and
the Simina villagers were able to give clear and precise
answers. Participants expressed their impressions of
this day in plenary after the visit. The mulching
technique was appreciated by the participants as it both
enriches the soil and retains moisture for a long time. As
a result, participants committed themselves to undertake the method in their respective villages.
Charting a way for documentation and learning in Uganda
Partners for Resilience (PfR) Uganda partners
organized a one day workshop in October
2014 to discuss learning and PfR
documentation tools. The workshop
convened 20 participants from both PfR
alliance and implementing partners. The
participants included community organisers,
project managers from each organisation, the
PfR linking and learning programme officer
and the knowledge development manager.
The workshop sought to bring the partners
together to chart out the best way to
document and learn from the PfR
implementation since its inception in 2011 to 2014. Therefore the strategy and tools for data
collection and process tools were discussed. It was agreed that learning and documentation would
be captured in the form of case studies, best practices, external and internal reviews and reflection
meetings at community at partner and national level. A road map was developed to guide the
documentation process as well as strategies to ensure the process captures stories from both direct
beneficiaries as well as key informants and partners.
The outcomes of this process fed into the annual learning workshop at the end of November 2014,
where PfR alliance and implementing partners shared their key learning in a workshop. The PfR
Fig.10: Participants of the field visit in one of the demonstration
plots

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country team planned and agreed to learn what are effective technical/social measures in relation to
DRR/CCA/EMR and to create common understanding on the approaches for the documentation by
introducing tools to facilitate learning, generate key data on the implemented DRR/CCA/EMR
interventions.
Climate change impacts already felt ‘on all continents and across the oceans’,
says IPCC
In November 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the full
synthesis of its Fifth Assessment Report (“AR5”), providing policy-makers with a comprehensive, one-
stop-shop appraisal of the risks of climate change facing humanity.
Human influence on the climate system is clear and growing, it says, with impacts observed on all
continents. If left unchecked, this will “increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible
impacts for people and ecosystems,” according to an IPCC media release. But options are available to
adapt, and implementing “stringent” mitigation can keep impacts manageable, it adds.
“We have the means to limit climate change,” said Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC Chair. “The solutions are
many and allow for continued economic and human development. “All we need is the will to change,
which we trust will be motivated by knowledge and an understanding of the science of climate
change.” The Synthesis Report and its associated Summary for Policymakers were released after a
week-long meeting in Copenhagen – the IPCC’s 40th formal session.
It does not contain new research but provides “fresh insights” by drawing together the three IPCC
Working Group reports released over the past year that make up AR5, as well as two special reports
from 2011, including “SREX”. “Our assessment finds that the atmosphere and oceans have warmed,
the amount of snow and ice has diminished, sea level has risen and the concentration of carbon
dioxide has increased to a level unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years,” said Thomas
Stocker, Co-Chair of Working Group I, which assesses the science behind climate change. The report
finds “with greater certainty than in previous assessments”, according to the IPCC, that emissions of
greenhouse gases and other man-made drivers have been the dominant cause of warming since the
mid-20th century. It adds: “The impacts of climate change have already been felt in recent decades
on all continents and across the oceans.” Read more
Global agreement on climate in 2015 ‘important step’ closer after COP 20 in
Peru.
A global agreement on climate change that will harness action by all nations “took a further
important step forward” after the annual UN climate talks – COP 20 – held in the Peruvian capital,
Lima, according to a press release yesterday from the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Governments ended two weeks of talks by “elaborating the elements of the new agreement” due to
be finalized at COP 21 in Paris next year.
They also made “significant progress” with raising adaptation to climate change to the same level
as mitigation – the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions – by recognizing that National Adaptation
Plans (NAPs) can deliver resilience.

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“Lima has given new urgency towards fast tracking adaptation and building resilience across the
developing world – not least by strengthening the link to finance and the development of national
adaptation plans,” UNFCC quotes the Peruvian Environment Minister and COP 20 President, Manuel
Pulgar-Vidal, as saying. Read more on the COP outcomes here.
In the mid-weekend of the negotiations, the Climate Centre organized the so called
12th Development & Climate Days. This meeting debated global efforts to tackle climate change and
poverty, and set the world on a path to zero extreme poverty and zero net emissions within a
generation. Two days of innovative approaches and incisive dialogue focused on bringing “zero-zero”
within reach. Read more.
The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the International Institute for Environment and
Development (IIED ), the Overseas Development Institute (ODI ), and the Climate and
Development Knowledge Network (CDKN ) will be facilitating debate and dialogue focused on
bringing zero-zero within reach. Stakeholders engaged in climate talks will join others developing
sustainable development goals during this particularly critical Conference of the Parties in Lima, held
in the run-up to COP 21 in Paris in 2015 – a pivotal moment in UN climate talks and others.
An international agreement on climate change under the UNFCCC, the post-2015 sustainable
development goals under the UN Open Working Group , and a future framework on disaster risk
reduction under the Hyogo-Framework for Action II will all be finalised next year. Over the past
year the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said we
must achieve zero net emissions of greenhouse gas by 2100 – offsetting any remaining emissions by
removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere – to stay below a 2°C average rise in global
mean temperature.
RCCC’s Climate training kit available online
The new Climate Training Kit – created by the Climate Centre in collaboration with the IFRC’s
Department of Community Preparedness and Risk Reduction (CPRR), with support from the Canadian
Red Cross and contributions from many Red Cross National Societies around the world – is fully
launched online. The kit provides a comprehensive range of educational materials to build the
capacity of Red Cross Red Crescent Movement staff and volunteers and partner organizations, and
links to existing IFRC products and guides. Interactive and flexible learning modules – with exercises,
games, film clips, presentations, reading materials, and examples from National Societies – have
been designed for trainings to address the humanitarian impacts of climate change. They are also
intended to reinforce awareness raising and participation in policy dialogues with governments and
other stakeholders. Read more
New study of downstream effects of El Niño on flood risk
The phantom El Niño continues to hold sway over the weather and climate world, in part because it
has such a strong influence on weather patterns around the globe. But the weather it influences isn’t
the end of the story or even the biggest point. What really matters is how those shifts can lead to
flooding or drought. A new study looks at those downstream effects of flooding in particular and
finds that nearly half of the world’s land areas experience a shift in the odds of flooding during El
Niño (or it’s opposite phase, La Niña). That means some areas are exposed to higher flood risks,
endangering infrastructure and people, while other areas get a reprieve. Those findings, published

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Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provide a more detailed look at the
next level of forecasting. A lot of scientific effort has been put into modelling physical hazards
themselves. Only much more recently have we started looking at the damage and being able to
model that damage,” said Philip Ward, a researcher at Amsterdam Global Change Institute who led
the new study. Ward and his colleagues found that 44 per cent of river basins around the world saw
changes in 100-year flood risks during El Niño or La Niña years, with some seeing higher risk of floods
and loss of property and some seeing lower risk. Read more
Seasonal Forecast January-March
06 January 2015 - Please click here for the latest IRI/Climate Centre global forecast for for January-
March 2015. For more information and help please contact the climatecentre@climatecentre.org