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a new reimbursement model for pharma
for your consideration:
wayne pan, md phd mba

wtp94015@gmail.com
we know that the healthcare reimbursement environment is changing
moving from fee for service to value-based model
do we want to be followers and wait for change to happen to us?
or do we want to be masters of our own destiny and lead the change?
think outside of the box
“You never change things
by fighting existing reality.
To change something,
build a new model that
makes the existing model
obsolete”
R. Buckminster Fuller
what’s our existing reality?
DRUG
PRICE =
R&D COSTS
TARGET POPULATION
~
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
$
$$$$$
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
$
$$$$$
drugprice
population size
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
$
$$$$$
drugprice
population sizetraditional
model
personalized
healthcare
$
$$$$$
population size
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
traditional
model
personalized
healthcare
*assuming constant R&D expenses
$
$$$$$
population size
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
traditional
model
personalized
healthcare
max price
market will bear
*assuming constant R&D expenses
$
$$$$$
population size
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
traditional
model
personalized
healthcare
max price
market will bear
*assuming constant R&D expenses
$
$$$$$
population size
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
traditional
model
what about
personalized
healthcare?
max price
market will bear
$
$$$$$
population size
drugprice
DRUG
PRICE
R&D EXPENSES
= TARGET POPULATION
~
traditional
model
personalized
healthcare
max price
market will bear
*assuming ability to reduce R&D expenses

proportionally to reduction in target population
June 14, 2015 • by Liz Szabo
June 14, 2015 • by Liz Szabo
October 31, 2016 • by Carolyn Y. Johnson
June 14, 2015 • by Liz Szabo
October 31, 2016 • by Carolyn Y. Johnson
A Look at Major Drug-Pricing Proposals
by Katie Thomas

May 29, 2017
March 15, 2016

by Kim Janssen
June 14, 2015 • by Liz Szabo
October 31, 2016 • by Carolyn Y. Johnson
A Look at Major Drug-Pricing Proposals
by Katie Thomas

May 29, 2017
March 15, 2016

by Kim Janssen
December 31, 2015

by Joseph Walker
June 14, 2015 • by Liz Szabo
October 31, 2016 • by Carolyn Y. Johnson
A Look at Major Drug-Pricing Proposals
by Katie Thomas

May 29, 2017
EXISTING

REALITY
EXISTING

REALITY
EXISTING

REALITY
contracting
rebates
outcomes-based pricing
DOES THIS REALLY

CHANGE OUR

REALITY?
IF YOU DON’T HAVE A SEAT
AT THE TABLE
YOU’RE ON THE MENU
A SEAT AT
THE TABLE?
DO WE WANT
WE GET
A SEAT?
HOW MIGHT
CLUE:
LOOK AT WHERE
THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM
IS GOING
CLUE:
adapted from IHI Triple Aim
improvepopulationhealth
lowerpercapitacostofcare
improve healthcare experience
the
triple
aim
triple aimvalue =
VALUE
BASED
CARE
HOW COULD WE PARTICIPATE
AS FULL PARTNERS
IN VALUE-BASED CARE?
CONSIDER
TAKING
ON RISK
patients
purchaserspatients
payers purchaserspatients
providers
payers purchaserspatients
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma others
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma
providers
payers purchasers
patients
pharma
healthcare1.0
providers
payers purchasers
patients
pharma
healthcare1.0
RISK
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma
healthcare2.0
RISK RISK
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma
healthcare3.0
RISK RISK
RISK
providers
payers purchaserspatients
pharma
healthcare4.0
RISK
RISK
RISK?
RISK
“You never change things
by fighting existing reality.
To change something,
build a new model that
makes the existing model
obsolete”
R. Buckminster Fuller
moving from targeting patients
to managing the total population
let’s look at the populationthat we would be managing
using a forest as a metaphor
lush forest
using a forest as a metaphor
lush forest forest fire
using a forest as a metaphor
lush forest forest fire burnt forest
using a forest as a metaphor
wellness palliative care
using a forest as a metaphor
diseased state
this is where
pharma resources
are focused under FFS
wellness palliative carediseased state
from a system perspective, we’re not allocating enough
resources to wellness and palliative care
wellness palliative carediseased state
from a system perspective, we’re not allocating enough
resources to wellness and palliative care
wellness palliative carediseased state
4QUADRANTS
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Status Quo
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Status Quo
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Status Quo Doomsday
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
• Public pressure and 

government action forces put

downward pressure on drug

prices as the system moves to

fee for value
• Increased transparency into

R&D costs
• Margins contract
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Rainbow’s End
Status Quo Doomsday
• Innovation continues to be

rewarded with premium

pricing
• Core basket of drugs continues

inflating at high double digits
• Innovation in biology and 

technology leads to R&D

efficiencies and better drugs
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
• Public pressure and 

government action forces put

downward pressure on drug

prices as the system moves to

fee for value
• Increased transparency into

R&D costs
• Margins contract
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Rainbow’s End
Status Quo
Balancing Act
Doomsday
• Innovation continues to be

rewarded with premium

pricing
• Core basket of drugs continues

inflating at high double digits
• Innovation in biology and 

technology leads to R&D

efficiencies and better drugs
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
• Public and government put

downward pressure on drug

prices and increases

transparency for R&D costs
• Innovation in biology & tech

leads to better drugs & R&D

efficiencies to offset pricing

pressures
• Public pressure and 

government action forces put

downward pressure on drug

prices as the system moves to

fee for value
• Increased transparency into

R&D costs
• Margins contract
http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
Higher Price
Transparency
Lower Price
Transparency
HIGH TECH
LOW TECH
Rainbow’s End
Status Quo
Balancing Act
Doomsday
• Innovation continues to be

rewarded with premium

pricing
• Core basket of drugs continues

inflating at high double digits
• Innovation in biology and 

technology leads to R&D

efficiencies and better drugs
• Price inflation continues at

current pace
• New innovative products enter

the market at premium prices
• Fewer R&D efficiencies from

technology
• Public and government put

downward pressure on drug

prices and increases

transparency for R&D costs
• Innovation in biology & tech

leads to better drugs & R&D

efficiencies to offset pricing

pressures
• Public pressure and 

government action forces put

downward pressure on drug

prices as the system moves to

fee for value
• Increased transparency into

R&D costs
• Margins contract
?http://www.expressbpd.com/pharma/it-at-pharma/digitizing-drug-development-how-much-can-it-save/384883/
New reimbursement model for pharma 20DEC17

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