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The Cinematch System:
   Operation, Scale
 Coverage, Accuracy
        Impact

       Jim Bennett
         9/13/06
What Is Netflix?
• “Connecting people to the movies they love”
• Online DVD movie rental:
   – Users subscribe for a fixed fee per month
      • Plans define #movies out at once, #turns in a month
   – Find, then queue up movies on website
   – USPS delivers DVDs within 1 business day most areas
   – Keep as long as you want; no late fees
   – Return in pre-paid mailer when done
   – Next DVD on your queue sent automatically
• Working on movie delivery over the net
• Choice of 65,000 titles…which ones?
Give Ratings
Get Recommendations
Show Interest
Get Recommendations
Netflix and Cinematch Scale

• 5M active customers
  – Ship 1.4M disks per day from 40 locations
• 1.4B ratings since 1997
  – 2M ratings per day
  – 1B predictions per day
• Item-to-item analysis with many data-
  conditioning heuristics
• 2 days to retrain on new ratings
• Manual item setup for “coldstart” titles
  – Automatically retired
Cinematch Operation
Ratings distribution


                       Netflix starts DVD rentals




     Wizard of Oz
  Gone with the Wind
Ratings distribution




Silent       B&W       Color
Ye




                                   1000
                                          2000
                                                 3000
                                                               4000
                                                                             5000
                                                                                    6000
                                                                                           7000
                                                                                                  8000




                               0
                          ar
                       19
                         08
                       19
                         13
                       19
                         17
                       19
                         21
                       19
                         25
                       19
                         29
                       19
                         33
                       19
                         37
                       19
                         41
                       19
                         45
                       19
                         49
                       19
                         53
                       19
                         57
                       19
                         61
                       19
                         65
                       19
                         69
                       19
                         73


20K predictees (30%)
                       19
                         77
                       19
                         81
                       19
                         85
                       19
                         89
                       19
                         93
                       19
                         97
                                                                                                         Predictive Coverage




                       20
                         01
                                                                     Total
                                                        Predictees
6000


                                                                                                                     5000




                                                                                                       3000
                                                                                                              4000




                                                                                                2000


                                                                              1000

                                                                0
                                        Music & Musicals
                                                  Foreign
                                                      Drama




* Popular = top 10K by ratings
                                            Documentary
                                      Children & Family
                                                Comedy
                                              Television
                                               Classics
                                                 Sports
                                   Action & Adventure
                                                Horror
                                     Special Interest
                                             Thrillers
                                 Anime & Animation
                                   Sci-Fi & Fantasy
                                          Romance
                                      Independent
                                   Gay & Lesbian
                                                      Popular
                                                                                                                                   Predictable Films by Genre




                                                                Total
                                                                                      Popular
                                                                        Predictable
Climbing Mount Predictable

                                                 Predictable movies

           9000

           8000

           7000

           6000
                                                                                                                Shooting stars
           5000                                                                                                 4 and 5 stars
# movies                                                                                                        Predictablybad (<3)
           4000                                                                                                 Predictable

           3000

           2000

           1000

              0
                  0

                      25

                           50

                                75

                                     100

                                           150

                                                 200

                                                       300

                                                             400

                                                                   500

                                                                         600

                                                                               700

                                                                                     800

                                                                                           900

                                                                                                 1000

                                                                                                        10000
                  # user ratings
Prediction Accuracy
                                  Error as user ratings increase

            1.4

            1.2


              1

            0.8
                                                                               RMSE
+/- Stars




            0.6                                                                MAE
                                                                               Bias
            0.4

            0.2

              0
                   <=5   <=10   <=20   <=50   <=100 <=200 <=300 <=500   >500
            -0.2
Error by Confidence
                             Error as confidence increases

            1.2


              1


            0.8


            0.6                                                  RMSE
+/- Stars




                                                                 MAE
            0.4                                                  Bias


            0.2


              0
                   Average   0           1           2       3
            -0.2
Does It Matter?
• Absolutely critical to retaining users
   – As CM has improved and RMSE has fallen, the
     percentage of 4-5 star movies rented has increased
• Important to users:
   – There are only so many new releases
   – Help jog memories about movies to see
   – CM reflects the collective memory of good movies
Does It Matter?




Cinematch-based   User
What’s Next?
• Anticipate scale of 20M subscribers in 2010-2012
   – Nearly 10B ratings, 10M/day
   – 5B predictions/day
• Improved learning algorithms
   – Improve coverage, accuracy and learning speed
• Help the non-rater
• Explore getting movie tastes beyond ratings
• Encode traits of movies that predict emotional
  response
• Motivate a user to take an unknown but likely great
  movie

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Netflix

  • 1. The Cinematch System: Operation, Scale Coverage, Accuracy Impact Jim Bennett 9/13/06
  • 2. What Is Netflix? • “Connecting people to the movies they love” • Online DVD movie rental: – Users subscribe for a fixed fee per month • Plans define #movies out at once, #turns in a month – Find, then queue up movies on website – USPS delivers DVDs within 1 business day most areas – Keep as long as you want; no late fees – Return in pre-paid mailer when done – Next DVD on your queue sent automatically • Working on movie delivery over the net • Choice of 65,000 titles…which ones?
  • 5. Netflix and Cinematch Scale • 5M active customers – Ship 1.4M disks per day from 40 locations • 1.4B ratings since 1997 – 2M ratings per day – 1B predictions per day • Item-to-item analysis with many data- conditioning heuristics • 2 days to retrain on new ratings • Manual item setup for “coldstart” titles – Automatically retired
  • 7. Ratings distribution Netflix starts DVD rentals Wizard of Oz Gone with the Wind
  • 9. Ye 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0 ar 19 08 19 13 19 17 19 21 19 25 19 29 19 33 19 37 19 41 19 45 19 49 19 53 19 57 19 61 19 65 19 69 19 73 20K predictees (30%) 19 77 19 81 19 85 19 89 19 93 19 97 Predictive Coverage 20 01 Total Predictees
  • 10. 6000 5000 3000 4000 2000 1000 0 Music & Musicals Foreign Drama * Popular = top 10K by ratings Documentary Children & Family Comedy Television Classics Sports Action & Adventure Horror Special Interest Thrillers Anime & Animation Sci-Fi & Fantasy Romance Independent Gay & Lesbian Popular Predictable Films by Genre Total Popular Predictable
  • 11. Climbing Mount Predictable Predictable movies 9000 8000 7000 6000 Shooting stars 5000 4 and 5 stars # movies Predictablybad (<3) 4000 Predictable 3000 2000 1000 0 0 25 50 75 100 150 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 10000 # user ratings
  • 12. Prediction Accuracy Error as user ratings increase 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 RMSE +/- Stars 0.6 MAE Bias 0.4 0.2 0 <=5 <=10 <=20 <=50 <=100 <=200 <=300 <=500 >500 -0.2
  • 13. Error by Confidence Error as confidence increases 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 RMSE +/- Stars MAE 0.4 Bias 0.2 0 Average 0 1 2 3 -0.2
  • 14. Does It Matter? • Absolutely critical to retaining users – As CM has improved and RMSE has fallen, the percentage of 4-5 star movies rented has increased • Important to users: – There are only so many new releases – Help jog memories about movies to see – CM reflects the collective memory of good movies
  • 16. What’s Next? • Anticipate scale of 20M subscribers in 2010-2012 – Nearly 10B ratings, 10M/day – 5B predictions/day • Improved learning algorithms – Improve coverage, accuracy and learning speed • Help the non-rater • Explore getting movie tastes beyond ratings • Encode traits of movies that predict emotional response • Motivate a user to take an unknown but likely great movie