This document introduces Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA), a new tool developed by Steven Wallis to quantitatively assess the probability that a proposed policy will achieve its intended goals. IPA examines the logical structure of policy documents to assign a numerical value forecasting the likelihood of success or failure. The founders of the Center for Analysis of Science in Policy hope to further develop and automate IPA, demonstrate its use during policy creation, and teach policymakers how to use it to identify issues early, compare alternatives, and facilitate bipartisan collaboration. They are seeking funding to hire fellows to perform analyses, attend conferences, and automate the currently manual IPA process.

1. Improving the Quality
of
Policy Decisions
The Center for Analysis of Science in Policy
www.scipolicy.org
2014
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2. IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF POLICY DECISIONS
Today, there is no way to
forecast the outcome of a
policy before it is enacted.
True?
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3. IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF POLICY DECISIONS
FALSE !
… because there now is a tool
that expresses numerically
the probability
that a policy will achieve its goal.
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4. 4
What if I showed you a new tool that could give
you a numerical index of the probability that a
policy will succeed?
"Impossible" you would say, but believe me, that
tool is here, and here’s what we can do with it.
IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF POLICY DECISIONS

5. What is that tool?
(Restless, anxious breathing, agitated movement.)
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6. It is …
Integrative Propositional Analysis
WHAT ????????
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7. INTEGRATIVE PROPOSITIONAL
ANALYSIS
(IPA*)
Conceived and developed by
Steven E. Wallis, PhD
IPA DOES FORECAST THE PROBABILITY THAT A
POLICY WILL MEET ITS OBJECTIVES - OR NOT.
*IPA is NOT India Pale Ale.
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8. APPLYING IPA 1.1
Through examining the logical structure of a
document, we can assign a numerical
value to the probability that the policy will
be successful - or not!
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Applying IPA during policy development, we can
identify defects in the policy at that stage,
permitting us to step back, modify and improve the
result.
APPLYING IPA 1.2

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When there are several policy alternatives, they
can be compared and the superior one selected for
completion.
This can obviate ideological gridlock, prompting
bi-partisan collaboration.
APPLYING IPA 1.3

11. GOALS &
OBJECTIVES
1. Further development of IPA theory
2. Automation of the now largely manual process
3. Perform analyses on documents submitted
4. Teach the use of IPA to policy makers
5. Demonstrate use of IPA during creation of policy
6. Make IPA an open platform for the common good
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12. NEEDS
1. Hire postdoctoral fellows to perform analyses
2. Travel expenses to regional and national meetings
3. Part-time administrative assistant
4. Routine office and administrative costs
5. Marketing and publicity
6. Computer programmer to automate analyses
Estimated start up cost: $15,000
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PUBLICATIONS UNDER SUBMISSION
Using Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) to Study the USAID/PERU Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Are theories of conflict improving? Using propositional analysis to determine the structure of conflict theories over the course of a century
Using Integrative Propositional Analysis to analyze the potential usefulness of “People sharing Resources” Theory and indicating
directions for advancement
Whole Scraps and Partial Maps: Investigating Some Underlying Assumptions of AQAL
PUBLICATIONS
Academic Publications
Wallis, S. (in press – publication anticipated in 2014) Propositional Analysis for Evaluating Explanations through their Conceptual Structures.
Chapter in “Modes of Explanation: Affordances for Action and Prediction” (edited by Michael Lissack and Abraham Graber).
Palgrave MacMillan. Wallis, S. (2014). Structures of logic in policy and theory: Identifying sub-systemic bricks for investigating, building, and
understanding conceptual systems. Foundations of Science. doi:10.1007/s10699-014-9360-4 Wallis, S. (2014). Existing and emerging methods
for integrating theories within and between disciplines. Journal for Organizational Transformation and Social Change. Guest Editor, Steven
Wallis, Vol. 11 (1).
Wallis, S. (2013). How to Choose Between Policy Proposals: A Simple Tool Based on Systems Thinking and Complexity Theory. E:CO –
Emergence: Complexity and Organizations. Vol. 15 (3).
Wallis, S. (2011). “Avoiding Policy Failure: A Workable Approach.” Litchfield Park, AZ: Emergent Publications, ISBN: 978-0-9842165-0-5.
Wallis, S. (2010). “Developing Effective Ethics for Effective Behavior.” Social Responsibility Journal, Vol. 6 (4).
Wallis, S. (2010). “Toward the Development of More Effective Policy Models.” Integral Review – special issue “Toward Development of Politics
and the Political.” Vol. 6 (1), p 153-177.
Wallis, S. (2010). “The structure of theory and the structure of scientific revolutions: What constitutes an advance in theory?” Chapter in
“Cybernetics and Systems Theory in Management: Tools, Views and Advancements.” Wallis, S. E. (Ed.) Hershey, PA: IGI Global.
IPA: Selected Publications

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Franklin D. Nash, MD
Dr. Nash is an 82 year-old former Professor of Medicine at the Indiana University
School of Medicine, specializing in Nephrology (renal disease and hypertension), with
emphasis on research and teaching. In recent years he has been distressed by the abuse of
Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics for partisan and ideological purposes in
creation of Congressional bills that have resulted in policies detrimental to the interests of
the American people. Attempting to see to an increase on the quality of policy
determinations, he founded the Center for Evaluation of Science in Policy
(www.scipolicy.org) that now serves as a vehicle for promoting the use of Integrative
Propositional Analysis (IPA), the first quantitative means of forecasting and improving the
effectiveness of policy during its origination.
In retirement, he has served as a life and health insurance company Medical
Director and Vice President for Academic Affairs at the RMP Institute of Biomechanics.
During his active years, Dr. Nash consulted for Social Security Disability, Medicare,
Medicaid, and for the USAF School of Aerospace Medicine among other organizations and
was a frequent Visiting Professor at various academic medical institutions.
A lover of the arts, Dr. Nash played double bass to finance his education and
continued playing professionally in his free time. His focus now is on Health Care Policy,
Biomedical Research Policy, and Water-Energy Nexus Policy, hence his passion for
Integrative Propositional Analysis.

15. Steven E. Wallis, PhD
Dr. Wallis is Director of Meta Analysis at Meaningful Evidence. He has a
decade of experience as an organization development consultant providing
collaborative workshop facilitation, leadership development, and training to
businesses and non-profits in Northern California. Building on that practical
experience, and a systems thinking perspective, he returned to school and earned
his PhD in 2006 at Fielding Graduate University.
Dr. Wallis also works at Capella University – mentoring doctoral candidates.
As director for the Foundation for the Advancement of Social Theory (FAST), he
supports emerging scholars working to identify rigorous paths for improving theory,
policy, and strategic knowledge. An interdisciplinary thinker, his publications cover a
range of fields including ethics, science, management, organizational learning,
entrepreneurship, and policy. His book, Avoiding Policy Failure, shows how a
systems view of policy models can be used to estimate the effectiveness of policies
before implementation, as well as improving policies for reducing cost and improving
results. Recently, Dr. Wallis was appointed to the Fulbright Specialist Roster. The
Fulbright Specialist program supports U.S. scholars in projects to help improve the
capacity of academic institutions outside the United States.
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16. Bernadette Wright, PhD
I founded Meaningful Evidence, LLC to help leaders accumulate and order data so as
to disclose what effects they are having and why, so they can use that information to improve
their results. I support clients with survey design, data analysis, formative evaluation, impact
evaluation, and report writing. I also provide evaluation design and proposal writing for
grants.
My specialties include ability to solve tough evaluation challenges and to quickly
research and synthesize vast amounts of information. Believing in using whatever research
methods can best answer the questions, I have used a broad range of quantitative research
and qualitative research methods. Examples include survey research, focus groups, literature
reviews, case studies, interviews, and environmental scanning. This experience has covered
long-term care, caregiving, aging in place, Medicaid, assistive technology, health policy, and
many other topics.
Previously, as Consultant at The Lewin Group, I provided research, project
management, and report writing for government, corporate, and nonprofit clients. Before that,
I was at AARP, providing policy analysis and policy research. My PhD is in Public
Policy/Program Evaluation from the University of Maryland.
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17. The Center for Analysis of Science in Policy
www.scipolicy.org
2014
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