1) NAIOP held an event discussing suburban development perspectives from retail, industrial, and office developers. A panel discussed challenges over the next 20 years due to provincial growth plan policies. 2) A keynote speaker from Hemson Consulting presented on growth projections and policy impacts for the GTA region out to 2031, expecting continued high growth requiring adequate land supply. 3) Panelists discussed constraints but also opportunities for brownfield redevelopment and intensification to accommodate projected population and employment increases in suburban areas like Mississauga by 2031.

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MAY 2012 - MISSISSAUGA BUSINESS TIMES - 13
Special Edition
REAL ESTATE Includes ICI Real Estate Listings Directory
Suburban development on NAIOP agenda
NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter held an early morning get together at the International Centre in Mississauga last month, the subject: Suburban Development
2012, Perspectives from retail, industrial and office developers. Left to right: Phil King, president, Orlando Corp. (panelist); Jeff Miller, vice-president, Investment
Officer, ProLogis; Dean Cutting, partner, Carttera Private Equities Inc. (panelist); Paul Morassutti, executive vice-president and senior managing director,
CBRE Limited (moderator); David Ward, director, Acquisitions, Morguard Investments Limited, and president of the NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter; Mauro
Pambianchi, chief development officer, SmartCentres (panelist); and Antony Lorius, associate partner, Hemson Consulting Ltd. (keynote speaker).
Photo by Stephen Uhraney
By Rick Drennan occur?, what does the 2011 census tell us? , more employment areas, more highways, and developers have shown a lot of discipline in
what is the impact of the greenbelt?, what are more urban modes in the suburbs. dealing with the banks and the economy.
T
he year 2008 might be indelibly the effects of provincial policies (the growth There’s a big challenge for retail over this King agreed. “We haven’t overbuilt,” he said.
imprinted in ICI realtors’ minds as plan)?, and how will that affect development? period, he said, and it’s all related to the Orlando sits on 40 million square feet of
the start of the economic Lorius included the entire GTAH – geographic pattern of population growth. development over its illustrious history and
meltdown, but 2005 was the real game Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton – in his This development will be concentrated will celebrate the 25th anniversary of the
changer for brokers and developers in talk, and focused on the years 2011 to 2031. primarily in developed urban areas like giant Heartland Centre next month.
southern Ontario. He pointed out that growth will continue Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughn and even the King predicts that spec development will
So said Dean Cutting, a partner with at double-digit levels in the Peel region (18 outskirts – Milton and centres north and east continue in the industrial market, but
Carttera Private Equities Inc. Cutting was per cent), and employment growth will better of Toronto. probably not in office. Orlando has “four or
one of the panelists along with Mauro that at 23 per cent. He also touched on a new phenomenon: a five” spec buildings currently under
Pambianchi, executive vice-president, He pointed out that 8.7 million people shift to more compact retail forms. The days construction, at the 200,000 to 500,000
SmartCentres, and Phil King, president of reside and work in the of the big box power malls square foot size. “We build just what we
Mississauga-based Orlando Corporation at Greater Golden Horseshoe might be ending. need,” he said.
NAIOP’s ‘Perspectives on Suburban
Development 2012’ at the Mississauga
these days, and that will
increase dramatically by
Mood is Lorius is an associate
partner at Hemson with
There will always be risk associated with
spec building, said Cutting, “but I think [in
Convention Centre last month. The event 2031. expertise in the areas of this business] you get paid for risk.”
was hosted by NAIOP’s 905 committee.
The moderator for the panel was Paul
He noteed that there is
still plenty of room for
upbeat as long-range planning and
g r ow t h m a n a g e m e n t ,
The talk eventually turned to what most
predict will be dramatic jumps in the
Morassutti, executive vice-president and
senior managing director, CB Richard Ellis’s
valuation and advisory services.
development despite the
greenbelt area, and despite
the fact that suburban
industry employment land analysis
and market and economic
impact studies.
development charges by municipalities in the
near future.
The panelists also think there will be more
The panel discussion took place after
Antony Lorius, associate partner at Hemson
cities like Mississauga are
almost completely built moves toward He says realtors and
developers should see
intensified development on brownfield sites,
which is already happening in the GTA.
Consulting, talked about the challenges faced out. “more friction” in the Trying to jam more people into smaller
by industrial/commercial realtors and
developers over the next 20 years.
Lorius expects a lot of
brownfield and greyfield
2031 approvals process “than
they’ve been used to in the
spaces might work for retail and office, but it
won’t at the industrial building level, said
Cutting pointed out that ‘Places to Grow’ development to take place past,” and some of the King. “There might be more people in office
legislation brought in by the McGuinty in the 905 corridor over the next 20 years. “new industrial frontiers (like Waterloo buildings than five years ago,” he said, “but
government in ’05, putting the emphasis on He agrees with Cutting that the provincial Region)” will continue to attract business in the opposite is true in industrial.”
more upward not outward development (less growth plan rules can be a great constraint to the future, despite the recent downturn at King said building LEED certified will
sprawl), has acted as a restriction on development, with high-density housing and Research in Motion (RIM). continue, but it’s a moving target. Are
development. employment to be directed to urban growth He admits that “putting new land excessive LEED costs to build outweighing
All changed with Places to Grow, said centres, already designated by Queen’s Park – designations into place” is definitely more the savings in operating costs?
Cutting. The greenbelt put us on an island. including Mississauga and Brampton. difficult under the province’s growth plan, It depends on the development, he said.
An expensive island. A still vital island. Lorius predicts that 40 per cent of new but at least there is a “clear direction in how What savings might work in an office
But an island where opportunities for growth residential units will be accommodated growth will be accommodated,” and defining environment, won’t necessarily be the same
might shrink, while development costs keep through intensification, while conversion of the urban envelop will evolve over the next in an industrial building.
going up. industrial and business park areas will be generation. The next NAIOP event is ‘The Changing
No doubt, there are multiple challenges minimized. Lorius is bullish on the GTA and calls it Face of Urban Retail in Toronto, May 3rd at
being faced in the suburban market, and a His glass-half-full presentation predicts a the “most industrialized economy in Canada Arcadian Court (401 Bay Street, 8th floor.)
full contingent of realtors and developers 35 per cent employment growth over the and the United States.” It’s also a breakfast get together.
took in the morning get together, part of 2011-2031 period, which should be good Even if manufacturing continues its Check out www.torontonaiop.com.
NAIOP’s focus on the 905 region. news to brokers and developers. There will dramatic slide, there will be no reduced The Commercial real estate development
The breakfast discussion follows hard on continue to be a high demand for industrial demand for industrial land. association (NAIOP) has 50 chapters in
the heels of a recent Colliers report on the and business park land. “We’ll still need the space to make and North America, acting as an extensive
re-urbanization of Toronto’s downtown area. Providing adequate land supply will be the move the stuff that is needed,” he said. network that represents the interests of
The incredible growth of the condo key challenge – even if manufacturing in Fr o m a n e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t developers and owners of commercial real
market is pushing the office market vacancy Ontario continues to dip significantly. perspective, he calls the GTAH “one of the estate.
rate to new lows and putting additional The office market will continue an upward best planning systems in the world.” There The 905 Chapter is relatively new.
pressure on tenants, said the semi-annual climb as well, he said, with upwards of 50 should be lots of optimism and opportunity, David Ward, director acquisitions for
report. million new square feet of space coming into he said. Morguard Investments Ltd., is president of
In Lorius’s presentation, he asked five the market over the period of his study. Cutting noted that “there’s not a lot of its Greater Toronto Chapter.
important questions: where will the growth That will continue to fuel the need for space out there [in the 905]. He believes
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