tree-ring presentation given at ameridendro2008

1. False rings in cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ): Tree-ring evidence for an intensification of drought in a semi-arid river system by kiyomi morino & dave meko LABORATORY OF TREE-RING RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON AmeriDendro 2008, UBC

2. dendro- flavor ? hydrology

3. NOT your mother’s dendro-hydrology

4. 3 …

7. ring widths

8. <cottonwood false ring> bark  FALSE RING 1 growing season

11. CHL TMB ?

12. “ ” hydrologic connectivity “ ” drought

13. April July November stage water table ~growing season

14. April July November stage water table ~growing season

15. April July November stage water table ~growing season

16. groundwater s h a l l o w

18. April July November stage water table ~growing season

19. I. Develop and characterize false-ring chronologies . II. Identify hydroclimatic factors related to false-ring formation .

20. Phoenix ARIZONA SONORA Tucson Hermosillo 0 50 km San Pedro River USA MEXICO Cananea Benson Tombstone Sierra Vista

21. * CHL gage * TMB gage 0 1 2 km    BCG CHM FRB N

22. BCG CHM FRB 1933 1947 1948

23. BCG CHM FRB 1945 1953 1967

24. BCG CHM FRB 2 % 18 % 5 %

25. BCG CHM FRB 0.31 0.57 0.39

26. drought at ungaged sites ?

27. 1 Drought is increasing . riparian

28. CHL TMB ?

29.    RATE wet dry BCG CHM FRB CHL TMB

30. 2 Drought is episodic . riparian

31. pTrees with FR CHM FRB CHG wet dry

32.  Develop and characterize false-ring chronologies. II. Identify hydroclimatic factors related to false-ring formation .

33. BCG CHM FRB 1933 1947 1948

34. 7 < 1 + 6 >

35. pSummer (Jul – Aug) m 3 /s pFall (Sept – Oct) m 3 /s Winter (Nov – Mar) m 3 /s Low Flow (May – July) #days Annual (pJul – Jun) m 3 /s Mass ANN (pJul – Jun) m 3 /s Spring T (Mar – Apr) º C

36. pSummer (Jul – Aug) m 3 /s pFall (Sept – Oct) m 3 /s Winter (Nov – Mar) m 3 /s Low Flow (May – July) #days Annual (pJul – Jun) m 3 /s Mass ANN (pJul – Jun) m 3 /s Spring T (Mar – Apr) º C

37. Results…

38. model predictors significant FRB-II FRB-I CHM-II CHM-I BCG + LOFL, – MASS – ANN + LOFL + LOFL, – MASS none

39. model predictors significant FRB-II FRB-I CHM-II CHM-I BCG + LOFL, – MASS – ANN + LOFL + LOFL, – MASS none

40. Proportion of Trees with a False Ring FRB: ANN CHM: LOFL 1970 1980 1990 2000

41. Conclusions …

43. 1 off-site gages false-ring formation

44. CHL TMB    BCG CHM FRB

45. 2 hydrological forcing may be site specific .

46. vs    LOFL ANN CHL TMB BCG CHM FRB

47.    BCG CHM FRB

48. 3 Drought is intensifying . riparian

49.  synchronicity

50. BCG CHM FRB 2 % 18 % 5 %

51. pTrees with FR CHM FRB CHG wet dry

52. any questions?