Monthly Macroeconomic Booklet April 2023 - Banking Turmoil Clouds.pdf

Office of Chief Economist
MACRO
BOOKLET
‘Banking Turmoil Clouds
Global Outlook’

01
02
03
04
Global Economic Update……………………………………………..20
Indonesia Economic Update………………………………………….45
Indonesia Leading Indicators………………………………………...50
Balance Of Payment And External Trade……………………………62
TABLE OF CONTENT
05
Government Finance………………………………………………….77
06
Indonesia Banking Sector…………………………………………….92
07
Equity And Bond Market Development……………………………..115
08
Macroeconomic Forecast…………………………………………….126
09
Global Banking Update ……………………………………………… 5
2

Latest Development – Global
United States: Turning to dovish?
▪ The Fed poured out liquidity assistance for US banking worth around USD300 billion, following the failure
of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank.
▪ Inflation slowed to 6.0% yoy in Feb-23, the lowest since Sep-21. Energy and food prices grew at a
slower rate while the cost of used cars and trucks continued to decline. Unemployment rate was up from a
50-year low to 3.6% in Feb-23.
▪ The Fed delivered another 25 bps FFR hike to 4.75 – 5.00% in Mar-23 amid stubborn inflation but
signaled that the series of rate increases is likely near the end. The recent events in the banking system
are likely to result in tighter credit conditions. Hence, the Fed no longer anticipates that ongoing rate
increases will be appropriate to quell inflation.
Eurozone: The fear of banking crisis spillover
▪ Credit Suisse (CS) collapsed, leading to the Swiss National Bank offering liquidity assistance to UBS to
buy CS. The government also has granted a guarantee for potential losses from assets UBS is taking over.
▪ Inflation dropped to 6.9% yoy in Mar-23, the lowest level since Feb-22, due to energy prices that
recorded contraction for the first time in two years.
▪ ECB raised the refinancing rate by another 50 bps to 3.50% in Mar-23 meeting, the highest since late
2008 to help temper the region’s stubbornly high inflation. It also said the euro area banking sector was
resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions, and that it was monitoring current market tensions
closely.
Asia Pacific: Easing inflation, weakening demand?
▪ China’s inflation fell to 1.0% yoy in Feb-23, the weakest since Feb-22, with prices of both food and non-
food easing sharply despite the removal of zero-COVID policy.
▪ Japan’s inflation cooled down to 3.3% in Feb-23 from its 41-year high, the lowest since Sep-22 as cost of
transport rose the least in 5 months while prices of fuel, light, and water charges dropped for the first
time since May-21.
Balancing fight against inflation and banking crisis risk
3
United States
Inflation rate (% yoy) 6.4 6.0
Unemployment rate (%) 3.4 3.6
Policy rate (%) 4.50 4.75 5.00
Eurozone
Inflation rate (% yoy) 8.6 8.5 6.9
Policy rate (%) 2.50 3.00 3.50
Asia Pacific
China’s inflation rate
(% yoy)
2.1 1.0
Japan’s inflation rate
(% yoy)
4.3 3.3
Global Economic Indicators Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23

Latest Development – Indonesia
▪ Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained BI-7DRRR at 5.75% in the Mar-23 meeting. This decision
remained consistent with the pre-emptive and forward-looking monetary policy stance to ensure
the continued decline in inflation. BI also conducted a banking resilience stress test and concluded
that the condition of the national banking system was not directly affected by the failure of
three US banks.
▪ Monthly inflation seasonally edged up to 0.18% mom in Feb-23 amid Ramadan. It was mainly
due to the increase in food prices as the food demand usually strengthens during the fasting month.
Transportation service fares were also usually up a month before Eid al-Fitr homecoming. Annual
inflation eased to 4.97% yoy, yet it was more influenced by the Mar-22 high base effect due to
the surging food and energy prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and Indonesia’s revocation of the
retail price ceiling (HET) for cooking oil. Core inflation weakened to 2.94% yoy due to the second-
round impact of oil price hike that has diminished faster than previously expected.
▪ Trade surplus in Feb-23 was up to USD5.48 billion, a surplus for 34th straight month and the
largest since Nov-22 due to the notable decline in import. Export growth eased to 4.51% yoy
amid declining commodity prices and diminishing low base effect of coal export ban. Import
growth surprisingly recorded contraction of -4.32% yoy due to the drop in Oil and Gas (OG)
import performance from growing by 30.36% yoy in Jan- 23 to plummeting by -17.08% yoy, since
oil prices was down by -14.21% yoy in Feb-23.
▪ The bank intermediation function continued to record strong growth. Loan growth continued to
expand by double-digit of 10.64% yoy in Feb-23. Deposit growth strengthened to 8.18% yoy.
Liquidity in the banking industry was maintained, with LDR at 79.8%. M2 growth weakened to
7.93% yoy. Moreover, asset quality remained robust with NPL at 2.58%.
Resilience through global economic turbulence
4
BI-7DRRR (%) 5.75 5.75 5.75
CPI Inflation
Inflation rate (% yoy) 5.28 5.47 4.97
Inflation rate (% mom) 0.34 0.16 0.18
Core inflation rate (% yoy) 3.27 3.09 2.94
Trade
Export (% yoy) 16.37 4.51
Import (% yoy) 1.27 -4.32
Trade balance (USD bn) 3.88 5.48
Bank
Loan (% yoy) 10.53 10.64
Deposit (% yoy) 8.03 8.18
LDR (%) 79.3 79.8
M2 (% yoy) 8.17 7.93
NPL (%) 2.59 2.58
Economic Indicators Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23

GLOBAL BANKING UPDATE
5

Key Takeways from SVB Fallout
SVB Fallout: Macroeconomic Perspective
Source: Bank Mandiri
▪ Sillicon Valley Bank (SVB) Bank Collapse is the real example of the risk of high Concentration Ration in both, funding and
lending site (including portfolio placement). Depositors of the SVB which are mostly tech startups reacted to the action as
negative sentiment and withdrew funds
▪ SVB fallout soon followed by another bank, Signature Bank, which had also shown similar risk with the SVB. Impact of the
closure of the banks led to a market rout. Stock index declined sharply. Countries with large startups companies that had
exposure to the SVB, raced to secure the assets.
▪ Concern over the state of the banking system and the financial market in the US, led to a rising expectation that Fed will be
less hawkish going forward. Sentiments over the US financial market and expectation of less hawkish Fed had brought USD
Index to decline which led to global currency appreciation.
▪ Spillover impact already seen in European banks, as the share prices fell sharply led by Credit Suisse.
▪ Impact to Indonesia banks and economy so far remain limited. The scale of crisis will not be as high as in 2008, as regulatory
requirement in the US is now tighter and the main problem of SVB is not bad debt, rather, it is a liquidity mismatch.
▪ However, we must stay watchful on the impact to Indonesia, especially on digital banks and startups, as some of the investors
are venture capital that may have exposure to global tech banks, especially SVB.
6

SVB Financial Assets and Balance Sheet
SVB's portfolio slump due to sharp hike in interest rate, as their share on bond placement reached 55%
Source: Bloomberg, All-in-Podcast, Company
SVB Financial Assets by Category
(USD bn)
SVB Balance Sheet Summary
15
74
108
15
Cash
Net loans
Treasuries and agency bonds
Others
22
173
3
14
26
74
74
0 50 100 150 200
Other Debt
Customer deposits
Others
Cash
Available for sale securities
Hold-to-maturity securities
Loans
(USD bn)
7

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse Timeline
Major events related to the bank’s collapse and its aftermath
Source: OCE BMRI
8 – 9 March 2023 10 March 2023
• SVB concerned investors when it
said it needed to shore up its
balance sheet and raise USD2
bn in capital. SVB was forced
to sell a bond portfolio at a
USD1.8 bn loss.
• Moody’s, a credit ratings firm,
downgraded the SVB’s bond
rating and slashed its outlook
to negative, from stable.
• Panic spread on social media
among investors. Bill Ackman,
the billionaire investor,
suggested that SVB could fail
and need a bailout.
• SVB’s announced the day
before prompted another wave
of customer withdrawals. SVB
stocks plummeted 60%.
11 - 12 March 2023 13 March 2023
• SVB failed after a run on
deposits. By midday, regulators
took over SVB. The failure of the
40-year-old institution became
the largest bank crash since the
2008 financial crisis, and it put
nearly USD175 bn in customer
deposits under the regulator’s
control.
• Investors started to dump bank
stocks.
• Treasury Secretary Janet L.
Yellen reassured investors that
the banking system was resilient.
• Signature Bank, a 24-year-old,
New York-based institution that
lent largely to real estate
companies and law firms, saw a
torrent of deposits leaving its
coffers.
14 – 15 March 2023
• To prevent the spread of
banking contagion, regulators
seized Signature Bank.
• The Fed and FDIC announced
that “depositors will have
access to all of their money
starting 13 March 2023”.
• The FDIC invoked a “systemic
risk exception,” which allows
the government to pay back
uninsured depositors to
prevent dire consequences for
the economy or financial
instability.
• The Fed announced that it
would set up an emergency
lending program.
• President Biden said the US
banking system was safe and
insisted taxpayers would not
pay for any bailouts.
• Regional bank stocks
plunged, with First Republic
taking the worst beating,
dropping 60%.
• HSBC said it would buy
Silicon Valley Bank’s British
subsidiary. A buyer was being
sought for Silicon Valley Bank’s
holding company, which
includes asset management and
a securities division, and
excludes the commercial bank
now under FDIC control.
• Bank stocks recovered some of
their losses.
• The Justice Department and the
Securities and Exchange
Commission reportedly opened
investigations into the collapse
of Silicon Valley Bank.
• Shares of Credit Suisse tumbled
by 24%, a record low. The Swiss
National Bank, Switzerland’s
central bank, said it would step in
to provide financial support to
Credit Suisse if necessary.
• On Wall Street, the S&P was
down by 0.6% at the close of
trading, reversing some of the
previous day’s rally as investors’
fears over the health of the
banking industry resurfaced.
8

Five Key Channels
Possible Spillover US Banks’ collapse to EMs / Indonesia
Source: OCE BMRI
Global
Banks’s
fallout
spillover
Channel
2. Risk Aversion: Weaken
Capital Flows to EMs
1. Direct Exposure to SVB
3. Domestic Monetary Policies
• Short respond: Capital inflows continue to EMs, incl Indonesia on sentiment of less
Fed’s tightening
• (+) Result: DXY drop, weaker USD, and bond yield drop
• (-) Result: Equity market on banks’ sentiment
• SVB provides financing to few companies in EMs → less spillover from start-up linked
• Global Respond:
• Fed and FDIC gave ‘blanket guarantee’ for depositors
• ECB gave Financial lifeline to Credit Suisse
• The Fed will re-think to agressively increase the ‘Terminal Rate’ and its pace.
• Indonesia respond: BI will re-think to increase benchmark rate. Priority on stability
and growth support. Data supports BI not to raise benchmark rate: Inflation outlook
of <4%, CAD outlook less than 0.5%, and higher real rate with good rating.
EM/Indonesia
US
4. International Trade
• US weakened → lower trade to US → potential widening CAD → less attractive
for investors. Indonesia’s position is relatively better than other EMs
5. Banking Sector
• Lower confidence and greater risk aversion: Liquidity tightening, risk on asset
quality (beware on financing through global VCs) and lower loan growth → At this
point, maintaining liquidity is the key
9

Watchout
What we have to anticipate in the near future?
Source: OCE BMRI
GLOBAL
➢ The Fed’s move: Increase or to maintain terminal rate?
• If Fed rise current terminal rate: (1) Expect for stronger Dollar, (2) More risk on US real sectors and channeling to financial
sector → More volatility risks, (3) USD-based funding rate will increase at least in 1H23, (4) BI might adjust with another
25bps rate hike.
• If Fed hold current terminal rate: (1) Expect for interest rate hike cycle to be soon over (1-2 months); (2) Expect for weaken
USD, (3) BI will hold 5.75% as terminal rate.
DOMESTIC
➢ Financing spillover via VC, start-ups (SU) and Digital Banking → Spillover to financial sector
• Channeling through various countries, i.e. China, India
• SVB’s collapse and CS case create concern over VC’s appetite (what if they stop financing to SU) and prefer holding cash.
• Channel to Digital Banking will be on their balance sheet. Most of Digital Banks have Cost to Income Ratio above 90%,
majority experience a net loss.
➢ Tighter liquidity due to lower interbank confidence level. Massive banks’ collapse news create risk aversion as we might see from
the overnight rates.
10

SVB Fallout triggers countries with large number of startups to race in
securing their assets
SVB is based in Santa Clara, California, but has branches in Canada, China, Denmark, Germany, India,
Israel, Sweden, and the UK.
Source: OCE BMRI
222.2
Canada
Regulator seized SVB’s branch
Toronto ad tech firm (Acuity Ads) has
USD 55 mn in SVB
Denmark
Zealand Pharma, drug developer, had
about USD23.5 mn at SVB (15% of its
cash)
Norway
Norges Bank Investment Management,
SWF, had USD1.3 tn credit exposure
Australia
Xero Ltd had total exposure around USD5 mn
with the SVB
Siteminder Ltd , software company had AUD10
mn exposure to SVB
Germany
BaFin, German financial regulator froze
SVB branch in the country
Netherlands
Pharming Group NV, Dutch biotech, holds
USD26 mn in SVB US and USD19 mn in
SVB UK
United Kingdom
HSBC’s purchase of SVB’s UK subsidiary
for £1 ($1.21)
European Union
16 firms in the tech and life sciences sectors in
Europe had about USD190 mn in exposure to
SVB.
11

Spillover to Depositors
SVB's collapse reverberates around the world
Source: OCE BMRI
222.2
Hong Kong
Brii Biosciences stated 9% of its cash is
in the SVB
Broncus Holding Corp stated 6.5% of its
cash is in the SVB
Zai Lab Ltd stated 2.3% of its cash is in
the SVB
South Korea
National Pension Fund Korea had
0.17% shares in the SVB
India
Over 60 Indian startups backed by US
startup accelerator Y Combinator (YC)
have more than USD250,000 tied up in
SVB, while well over a dozen more have
over USD1 mn.
Japan
Softbank vision fund has invested in the
startups that have deposit and loans
with SVB
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust HoldingsInc had
0.29% stake in SVB Financial Group
China
BeiGene, China’s leading firms in cancer
treatments, announced nearly 4% of its
cash, or about USD175 mn, is frozen in
SVB.
SVB’s China joint venture, Shanghai
Pudong Development Bank Co., issued a
statement over the weekend that its
operations are “stable” and
“independent.”
12

Market Volatility Increased
The SVB collapse also caused the volatility indicators increased
Source: Bloomberg (as of 13 March 2023)
36.5
18.6
33.6
19.1
26.5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Volatility Index (VIX)
77
164
164
87
103
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
CDS 5-year Indonesia
188.0
78.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar-
23
61.2
US FRA minus OIS Spread
13

Key Takeways from Credit Suisse (CS) Crisis
Credit Suisse (CS) Crisis: Macroeconomic Perspective
Source: Bank Mandiri
▪ Among the world's largest wealth managers and crucially it is one of 30 global systemically important banks, whose failure would cause
ripples through the entire financial system. Credit Suisse has a local Swiss bank, wealth management, investment banking and asset
management operations. It has just over 50,000 employees and CHF1.3 tn in assets under management at the end of 2022, down
from CHF1.6 tn a year earlier.
▪ Credit Suisse have more than 150 offices in around 50 countries, Credit Suisse is the private bank for a large number of
entrepreneurs, rich and ultra rich individuals and companies.
▪ The Swiss company’s stock was down 24% at the close of business Wednesday (03/15) its biggest one-day selloff ever - before
rebounding by as much as 40% the next day after tapping the Swiss National Bank for CHF50 bn in a liquidity backstop to help
shore up investor confidence. Except it wasn’t enough, with the central bank and Swiss government ultimately brokering the UBS takeover
over the weekend. Credit Suisse shares have lost more than 75% of their value over the past twelve months.
▪ The panic first gained steam when the bank’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said it had no interest in increasing its
stake if such a request was made - sparking a global market rout that wiped out more than $60 billion in value for European banks.
▪ Concern over the state of the banking system and the financial market in the US, led to a rising expectation that Fed will be less
hawkish going forward. Sentiments over the US financial market and expectation of less hawkish Fed had brought USD Index to decline
which led to global currency appreciation
▪ Spillover impact already seen in European banks, as the share prices fell sharply led by Credit Suisse
14

Credit Suisse Crisis: A Timeline of Key Events
Credit Suisse has been struggling for liquidity since the past three years
over risky investments and consecutive losses
Source: OCE BMRI
2020 2022
February 2020:
Former CEO Thomas
Gottstein stepped down
as the bank reported a
massive loss amounting to
USD1.66 bn.
March 2020:
The USD investment fund
Archegos Capital
Management fell into
trouble, which cost the
bank a USD5.5 bn loss.
9 – 14 March 2023 15 – 16 March 2023
January 2022:
Credit Suisse appointed Axel
Lehmann as the new Chairman
of the group. Antonio Horta
Osorio resigned within less
than nine months.
July 2022:
The bank continues its path to
transform the bank’s woes by
announcing Ulrich Koerner as
the CEO.
October 2022:
The Saudi National Bank
bought a 9.9% stake in Credit
Suisse. The amount paid was
USD1.5 billion.
19 March 2023
9 March 2023:
After receiving a call from
the US Securities and
Exchange Commission, Credit
Suisse was forced to delay its
2022 annual report.
10 March 2023:
SVB collapses. This
exacerbated the problems at
Credit Suisse, with shares
tanking by 30%.
14 March 2023:
The bank reported a loss of
CHF7.3 bn.
15 March 2023:
Saudi National Bank denied
pumping more money into the
bank owing to regulatory and
statutory problems.
Credit Suisse announced in the
evening that it would borrow
CHF54 bn from Swiss National
Bank under a covered loan
facility and a short term
liquidity facility.
16 March 2023:
This news by the government
came in as a reassurance to
the market and the shares of
Credit Suisse rose by 20%.
19 March 2023:
A reluctant UBS Bank in a
government-brokered deal
buys the bank for GBP3.25
bn.
The Swiss National Bank is
offering CHF100 bn-liquidity
assistance to UBS while the
government is granting a
CHF9 bn guarantee for
potential losses from assets
UBS is taking over. This deal
will be completed by the end
of 2023.
15

Spillover Effect from Credit Suisse’s Problem to Indonesia
Source: OCE BMRI 16
Credit
Suisse’s
Saga
1. Global Systemic Risk
- Credit Suisse (CS) has been in trouble for a long time vs Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) which was hit
because of high consentration ratio. CS is full of high-quality assets but faced a liquidity
crisis.
- GSIB and high risk of spill-over → The regulator responded fast. Making it different with
what happened during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
2. Financial Market
A Panic-attack Driven: Similar market responses
- Stock Market: The overreactions seen in the stock market have been eerily reminiscent of 2008.
A negative sentiment spread to the banking sector globally including Indonesia, triggering
sell-off.
- Bond Market: The negative sentiment has limited impact on Indonesia’s bond market. There was
selling pressure, but it was temporary. Instead, there is potential for inflows in the medium
term as problems in SVB and CS will limit the pace of global rate hikes. Indonesia's well-
maintained fiscal condition will also make Indonesia’s bonds tend to be more attractive.
3. Banking Sector
The impact of CS problem on Indonesia’s banking sector will be limited. First, there is only a
small direct exposure of the banking sector to CS. Second, the banking sector remains quite
strong, which is reflected in the large amount of capital.
4. International Trade
- It is limited. From the export side, EU is not one of the main export destinations for Indonesia
(only 7 - 8% of total exports). On the import side, EU is not one of the import main origins
(only 5 - 6% of total imports).
- The economic downturn in EU could impact US so that it could weaken the US economy
further. This could have an impact on Indonesia’s exports as US is the second largest trading
partner for Indonesia.
Spillover Channels Impacts on Indonesia

Potential of Indirect Spill-over: Credit Suisse Exposure on the US and
Chinese Banks, and How It Will Affect Indonesian Banks
Source: OCE BMRI 17
Credit
Suisse’s
Problem
Impact on US banks:
- The US official said that US banks have limited exposure to Credit Suisse (CS), after reducing
their exposures to the No. 2 Swiss lender in recent months.
- Regulators have amped up queries with firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America
Corp., and Citigroup Inc. about those exposures, which are now minimal.
- The indirect impact should be anticipated. The health of other biggest European banks
matters because those lenders are on the other side of transactions worth billions of dollars with
their US counterparts, raising the risk that American banks could be hurt by the tumult.
Impact on Indonesian banks:
- The impact will be limited as no
Indonesian banks as common
creditors of EU and US banks.
- The impact will be via stock
market → share price will be
lower.
Impact on Chinese banks:
- China values capital controls that wall off its financial sector.
- China’s integration to the global financial market is relatively
low compared to the Western countries and it is in favor of maintaining
restrictions—all while making use of Hong Kong as a controllable
connection to the global system.
Impact on Indonesian banks:
- If banking strains now tip most of the developed world
into recession—with continued high inflation, to boot—
China will have less incentive to promote financial
integration. And China’s appeal to emerging markets,
including Indonesia, as a partner and something of a
model will only grow.
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said the city's banking sector is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. CS's
operations in the city comprise a branch supervised by the HKMA and two licensed corporations supervised by the Securities and
Futures Commission.
- The total assets of CS, Hong Kong Branch amounted to about HK$100 billion, representing less than 0.5% of the total assets of the
Hong Kong banking sector. The exposures of the local banking sector to CS are insignificant.
- As of the end of February 2023, CS was the ninth-largest listed structured product issuer in Hong Kong, accounting for about 4%
of the total market in terms of market value of outstanding units.

Office of Chief Economist 18
Market Volatility Increased
The Credit Suisse Crisis also caused the volatility indicators increased
Source: Bloomberg
CDS 5-year Indonesia
24.2
22.6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
120
109
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Volatility Index (VIX)
Indicator 2021 2022 Jan-23 Feb-23
08-Mar-23
(Pre SVB & CS
Collapse)
10-Mar-23
(SVB Collapse)
14-Mar-23
(CS Collapse)
20-Mar-23
(Post D+6 CS
Collapse)
24-Mar-23
VIX 17.2 21.7 19.4 20.7 19.1 24.8 23.7 24.2 22.6
INDON CDS 5Y 75.3 99.6 88.3 93.8 93.7 100.2 108.7 120.2 109.0

Market and Regulators Responses: Similar Behaviour
Source: Various Sources, OCE BMRI
On 24-Mar, the share price
was down by around 10%
and CDS to the highest
since 2019.
On 15 Mar, the share price
was down 24%, the CDS
rose to highest level at
1,082 at the next day.
Stock Prices and
the CDS
On 8 Mar, the share price
dropped by 60%
SVB, Silvergate,
Signature Bank
collapse
Credit Suisse Saga Deutsche Bank
Trouble
Others?
ST respond: Stock prices
dropped and CDS rises to
highest level
Most of analysts remain
optimistic it won't suffer the
same fate as CS. No
further policy actions
needed
Blanket guarantee, lower
terminal rate, and
emergency resque from
more resilient banks
Market’s
expectation on
Monetary
policies
Blanket Guarantee and less
hawkish monetary policies
Depends on the scale of the
banks and their balance
sheet. First reaction is less-
hawkish policy expectation
Deutsche Bank Recover,
Market nerves settle
Confidence level: low
Strock prices was rebound
fast however market was
cautious on the next spill
over.
Post Fast
Monetary
Respond and
Emergency
Rescue
Strock prices rebound fast
however market was
cautious on the next spill
over.
Depends on the policy
actions and the magnitude
of the risks
19

GLOBAL ECONOMIC UPDATE
20

Global Economic Outlook
Markets expect most economies to grow at a slower pace by 2023
Countries / Area 2019 2020 2021 2022
IMF World Bank Bloomberg OECD
2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F
World 2.8 -3.0 6.2 3.4 2.9 3.1 1.7 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.2
US 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.8 0.5
Euro Zone 1.6 -6.1 5.3 3.5 0.7 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.5 1.2 3.3 0.5
Indonesia 5.0 -2.0 3.7 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3 4.7
Japan -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.1 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.8
China 6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.5 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.0 3.3 4.6
India 6.5 3.9 -5.8 9.1 6.1 6.8 6.6 6.1 6.9 6.0 6.6 5.7
Russia 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1 0.3 2.1 -3.3 1.6 -1.7 1.5 -3.9 -5.6
Brazil 1.2 -3.3 5.2 2.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.7 2.8 1.2
ASEAN-5 4.9 -3.4 3.4 4.3 4.7 - - - - - -
(GDP growth, %)
Source : IMF, Jan-23 World Economic Outlook; World Bank, Jan-23 Global Economic Prospect; OECD, Nov-22 Economic Outlook; & Bloomberg as of 3-Apr-23
Notes: GDP Indonesia 2023 From World Bank April 2023 and IMF March 2023

-3.0*
-1.0 -0.6*
-0.1
0.1 0.3* 0.6
1.2 1.4 1.6
2.3*
3.7
4.4
5.0 5.0 5.2
6.1 6.2*
Sri
Lanka
Chile
United
Kingdom
Sweden
Germany
Russia
Italy
Brazil
United
States
Australia
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
China
India
Vietnam
%
IMF’s 2023 Economic Growth Projection
IMF revised up GDP forecast for Indonesia from 4.8% to 5.0%
Source : IMF, Jan-23 WEO *Oct-23 WEO 22

GDP in Several Countries
Most countries expected to start recording a slowdown in 2023
Source: Bloomberg consensus as of 03-Apr-23
(GDP growth, % yoy)
Countries 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
US 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.2
Euro Zone 2.6 1.8 1.6 -6.1 5.3 3.5 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.6
Japan 1.7 0.7 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.2
UK 2.5 1.7 1.6 -11.0 8.5 4.3 -0.4 0.9 1.7 -0.2 --0.6 -0.5 -0.4
China 6.9 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.4 7.3 4.9 5.8
South Korea 3.2 2.9 2.2 -0.7 4.1 2.6 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 2.3
Russia 1.8 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1 -1.7 1.5 1.2 -4.5 -1.0 -0.9 0.7
India 8.3 6.8 6.5 3.9 -5.8 9.1 6.9 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.0 5.3 5.4
Brazil 1.3 1.8 1.2 -3.3 5.2 3.0 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.2
Indonesia 5.1 5.2 5.0 -2.0 3.7 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.6 5.0 5.0
Malaysia 5.7 4.7 4.3 -5.6 3.1 8.7 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.9 3.2 2.8 5.3
Thailand 4.2 4.2 2.1 -6.2 1.6 2.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.2
Singapore 4.5 3.4 0.9 -4.1 9.1 3.7 1.9 2.6 3.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1
Philippines 6.9 6.3 6.1 -9.5 5.7 7.6 5.6 5.8 6.5 6.0 6.2 5.0 4.8
Australia 2.4 2.8 2.0 -1.8 5.3 3.7 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.0

47.0
47.3
47.6
48.8
49.2
49.2
49.6
51.9
51.9
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.9
56.4
BRAZIL
EUR…
KOREA
MALAY
US
JAPAN
SING
CHINA
INDO
PHIL
THAI
RUSIA
HK
INDIA
Manufacturing PMI
Mar-23
24
Global Manufacturing PMI
Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI is still expansive among developing countries
46.5
48.4 48.8
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23
MYS
Source : Bloomberg
46.9 47.3
49.2
USA
48.8 48.5
47.3
EUR
50.1
52.6 51.9
CHN
48.9
47.7
49.2
JPN
51.3 51.2
51.9
IDN
49.1
51.2
49.6
Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
SGP
48.5 48.5
47.6
KOR
54.5 54.8
53.1
THA
53.5
52.7 52.5
PHL
47.5
49.2
47.0
BRA
52.6
53.6
53.2
RUS
49.6
51.2
53.9
Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
HKG
55.4 55.3
56.4
IND

Global Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI is still expansive, surpassing Australia and USA
Source : Bloomberg & OCE BMRI
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Singapore
India
USA
Eurozone
UK
South Korea
China
Turkey
Russia
Spain
Australia
South Africa
Italy
Sweden
Taiwan
Philippine
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.0
PMI
1
MONTH
CHANGE
Recovering
Deteriorating Decelerating
Accelerating

Global Inflation
Inflation began to ease in most countries as food and energy prices have declined
Source: Bloomberg, as of 3-Apr-23 * Data as of Feb 2023
Period IDN MYS SGP THA PHL CHN IND BRA RUS KOR
2020 1.68 -1.40 0.00 -0.27 3.30 0.20 4.59 4.52 4.91 0.60
2021 1.87 3.20 4.00 2.17 3.10 1.50 5.66 10.06 8.39 3.70
2022 5.51 3.80 6.50 5.89 8.10 1.80 5.72 5.79 11.94 5.00
Feb-23 5.47 3.70 6.30 3.79 8.60 1.00 6.44 5.60 10.99 4.80
Mar-23 4.97 - - - - - - - - -
Period USA GBR EUR
2020 1.40 0.60 -0.30
2021 7.00 5.40 5.00
2022 6.50 10.50 9.20
Feb-23 6.00 10.40 8.50
Mar-23 6.90
6.00
10.40
6.90
-5
0
5
10
15
2019
2021
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Inflation Rate in Developed
Countries
USA GBR EUR
Mar-23
4.97
3.70
6.30
3.79
8.60
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2019
2020
2021
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Inflation in Emerging Markets
IDN MYS SGP THA PHL
1.00
6.44
5.60
10.99
4.80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2019
2020
2021
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Inflation in Emerging Markets
CHN IND BRA RUS KOR

Inflation Forecast in Several Countries
Average inflation is mostly expected to ease in 2023
Source: Bloomberg, as of 3-Apr-23 Notes: data is on average *realization
(Inflation Rate, % yoy)
Country/Area 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F
Indonesia 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.6 4.2 4.0 5.2* 4.3 3.6 3.4
Malaysia 3.8 1.0 0.7 -1.1 2.5 3.4 3.0 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.2
Singapore 0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.3 6.1 4.8 6.3 5.1 4.0 3.4
Thailand 0.7 1.1 0.7 -0.8 1.2 6.1 2.8 4.3 2.7 2.1 2.0
Philippines 2.9 5.2 2.4 2.4 3.9 5.8 5.6 8.3 6.6 4.7 3.3
China 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.5 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7
India 3.3 4.0 3.7 6.6 5.1 6.7 6.7 6.2 5.0 5.3 5.4
Brazil 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.2 8.3 9.3 5.3 5.6* 3.9 5.8 5.8
Russia 3.7 2.9 4.5 3.4 6.7 13.8 5.8 8.8 3.7 5.0 5.7
South Korea 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 2.5 5.1 3.3 4.8 3.4 2.8 2.7
Japan 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 2.5 2.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.7
US 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.2 4.7 8.0 4.3 5.9 4.3 3.7 3.3
UK 2.7 2.5 1.8 0.9 2.6 9.1 6.5 9.7 7.2 5.5 3.6
Euro Zone 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.3 2.6 8.4 5.6 8.0* 6.3 4.7 3.1

Global Policy Rates
Most central banks have started to soften policy rate increase amid moderating inflation
Source: Bloomberg, as of 3-Apr-23
Month USA EUR JPN GBR
Mar-22 0.50 0.00 -0.10 0.75
Jun-22 1.75 0.00 -0.10 1.25
Sep-22 3.25 1.25 -0.10 2.25
Dec-22 4.50 2.50 -0.10 3.50
Jan-23 4.50 2.50 -0.10 3.50
Feb-23 4.75 3.00 -0.10 4.00
Mar-23 5.00 3.50 -0.10 4.25
Date IDN MYS IND CHN BRA RUS MEX
Mar-22 3.50 1.75 4.00 3.70 11.75 20.00 6.50
Jun-22 3.50 2.00 4.90 3.70 13.25 9.50 7.75
Sep-22 4.25 2.50 5.90 3.65 13.75 7.50 9.25
Dec-22 5.50 2.75 6.25 3.65 13.75 7.50 10.50
Jan-23 5.75 2.75 6.25 3.65 13.75 7.50 10.50
Feb-23 5.75 2.75 6.50 3.65 13.75 7.50 11.00
Mar-23 5.75 2.75 6.50 3.65 13.75 7.50 11.25
5.00
3.50
-0.10
4.25
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
%
Developed Countries
USA EUR JPN GBR
-4
1
6
11
16
21
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Emerging Market
IDN MYS IND CHN AUS BRA CAN RUS MEX

The Fed’s Economic Projection
The Fed delivered signal that the series of rate increases is likely near the end
Source: US Federal Reserves 29
1.00
1.25 1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.25
2.00
1.75
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.75
2.50
3.25
4.00
4.50 4.75
5.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
%
Indicators
2023 2024 2025 Long-run
Mar-23 FOMC
Projection
As of 28-Feb-23
Mar-23 FOMC
Projection
GDP 0.4% 2022 = 2.1% 1.2% 1.9% 1.8%
Unemployment 4.5% Feb-23 = 3.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0%
PCE Inflation 3.3% Feb-23 = 5.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0%
Policy Rate 5.25% Mar-23 = 5.00% 4.50% 3.25% 2.5%
Fed Funds Rate:
US growth stabilized; the Fed began
raising rates
Slow global growth and
muted inflation
COVID-19 pandemic
2017
GDP : 2.4%
Unemployment : 4.1%
Inflation : 2.1%
2018
GDP : 2.9%
Unemployment : 3.9%
Inflation : 1.9%
2019
GDP : 2.1%
Unemployment : 3.5%
Inflation : 2.3%
2020
GDP : -3.5%
Unemployment : 6.7%
Inflation : 1.4%
2021
GDP : 5.7%
Unemployment : 3.9%
Inflation : 7.0%
The Fed monetary normalization;
increasing inflation
2022
GDP : 2.1%
Unemployment : 3.5%
Inflation : 6.5%

Fed Meeting Target Rate Probabilities
Market expects the Fed to remain hiking FFR, peaking at 2Q23
Source: CME group as of 04-Mar-23
FOMC
Meeting
Date
175-
200
200-
225
225-
250
250-
275
275-
300
300-
325
325-
350
350-
375
375-
400
400-
425
425-
450
450-
475
475-
500
500-
525
525-
550
5/3/2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.9% 58.1% 0.0%
6/14/2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.9% 56.5% 5.6%
7/26/2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 45.8% 35.0% 3.2%
9/20/2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 36.8% 38.3% 12.8% 1.0%
11/1/2023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 29.3% 37.8% 20.3% 4.4% 0.3%
12/13/202
3
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 23.0% 35.3% 25.4% 9.1% 1.5% 0.1%
1/31/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 19.7% 33.0% 27.3% 12.2% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0%
3/20/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 17.5% 31.1% 28.1% 14.3% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5/1/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 6.2% 19.8% 30.6% 25.8% 12.6% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
6/19/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.2% 12.4% 24.7% 28.4% 19.8% 8.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7/31/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.8% 11.1% 23.1% 27.9% 21.0% 10.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9/25/2024 1.0% 5.3% 14.7% 24.5% 25.8% 17.7% 8.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Expectation on Policy Rate
Most central banks are expected to continue increasing policy rates in 2023, but in a moderate way
Source: Bloomberg, as of 3-Apr-23 31
-100
-15
0
0
62.5
75
100
200
200
225
225
250
300
325
350
350
400
425
450
-250 -50 150 350 550
Russia
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Taiwan
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
India
South Korea
Eurozone
Australia
UK
New Zealand
Philippines
Canada
USA
Brazil
Policy Rate Change
in 2022 (bps)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12.5
25
25
25
25
50
50
50
50
75
75
100
0 50 100 150
Brazil
Russia
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Vietnam
China
Japan
Taiwan
India
Indonesia
South Korea
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
USA
Thailand
Philippines
UK
Eurozone
Policy Rate Change
in YTD 2023 (bps)
-120
-25
-15
-13
0
0
0
0
5
5
10
10
15
20
25
35
40
50
65
-250 -150 -50 50 150
Brazil
Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Canada
UK
Russia
USA
India
Japan
Thailand
New Zealand
Malaysia
Australia
Vietnam
Eurozone
China
Expectation on Policy Rate Change
in the rest of 2023 (bps)

Real Policy Rate
Indonesia’s real return in 2023 is projected to remain attractive
Note: *) Current policy rate – current inflation; **) Expected policy rate – expected inflation in 2023
-6.15
-4.20
-3.50
-3.40
-3.40
-2.45
-2.35
-2.04
-1.30
-1.00
-0.95
-0.84
-0.70
-0.56
0.06
0.78
2.65
2.65
8.15
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
UK
Australia
Russia
Eurozone
Japan
New Zealand
Philippines
Thailand
South Korea
USA
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Canada
Taiwan
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
China
Brazil
Real Policy Rate* (%)
-2.30
-2.25
-1.64
-1.60
-1.55
-0.90
-0.25
-0.25
-0.10
0.00
0.05
0.50
0.75
0.80
1.75
1.75
2.00
2.70
7.25
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Japan
UK
Hong Kong
Eurozone
Australia
Thailand
New Zealand
Taiwan
India
Malaysia
South Korea
Philippines
USA
Canada
Russia
Indonesia
China
Vietnam
Brazil
Expected Real Policy Rate** in 2023 (%)
32

Balance Sheet of Major Central Banks
Global liquidity was slightly up amid the risk of banking crisis
Source: The Fed, ECB, BoJ, & CEIC 33
2008/09 Global
Economic Crisis
The COVID-19
Pandemic
2008/09 Global
Economic Crisis
The COVID-19
Pandemic
6.99
9.37
19.75
31.51
28.71
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mar-03
Jan-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Jul-06
May-07
Mar-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Jul-11
May-12
Mar-13
Jan-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Jul-16
May-17
Mar-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
Sep-20
Jul-21
May-22
Mar-23
USD
trillion
G4 CB Total Assets
8.71
8.38
5.51
6.10
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mar-03
Jan-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Jul-06
May-07
Mar-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Jul-11
May-12
Mar-13
Jan-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Jul-16
May-17
Mar-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
Sep-20
Jul-21
May-22
Mar-23
USD
trillion
CB Total Assets
The Fed ECB BoJ PBoC

US Leading Economic Indicators
Despite the financial stress in the banking sector, high inflation prompted the Fed to raise FFR by 25 bps
Source: CEIC 34
49.2
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Manufacturing PMI
Expansion (> 50)
Contraction (< 50) -21.4
-3.2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
%
yoy
Confidence Index
Business Confidence Consumer Confidence
3.6
6.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
5
10
15
20
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
%
Unemployment & Inflation
Unemployment - LHS Inflation - RHS
6.8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
Retail Sales

Eurozone’s Leading Economic Indicators
Recent economic indicators suggest strong service sector, but weak manufacturing sector
Source: CEIC 35
55.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Service PMI
47.3
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Manufacturing PMI
Expansion (> 50)
Contraction (< 50)
Expansion (> 50)
Contraction (< 50)
1.9
-8.3
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
%
yoy
Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
6.6
6.9
-5
0
5
10
15
6
7
8
9
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
%
yoy
%
Unemployment Rate - LHS Inflation Rate - RHS

China’s Leading Economic Indicators
Domestic economy shows a strengthening activity, but external demand is prone to weaken
Source: CEIC 36
50.0
39
44
49
54
59
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Manufacturing PMI
Expansion (> 50)
Contraction (< 50)
3.5
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
Retail Sales
4.8
-25.8
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
%
yoy
Confidence Index
Business Confidence Consumer Confidence
-6.8
-10.2
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
International Trade
Export Import

Japan’s Leading Economic Indicators
Domestic consumption continued to recover from the pandemic slump
Source: CEIC 37
49.2
35
40
45
50
55
60
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Manufacturing PMI
6.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
Retail Trade
2.6
3.3
-2
0
2
4
6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
%
Unemployment - lhs Inflation - rhs
7.0
8.5
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
%
yoy
International Trade
Export Import
Expansion (> 50)
Contraction (< 50)

Global Commodity Prices
Commodity prices mostly decreased in Mar-23
note: Price in USD
Source: Bloomberg, as of 31-Mar-23
Commodity Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Mar-23 % mtd % ytd
Crude Oil (barrel) 51.8 77.8 85.9 79.8 (7.1) (4.9)
Coal (metric ton) 80.5 169.6 404.2 177.3 (56.1) (8.1)
CPO (metric ton) 963.8 1,240.8 947.0 919.7 (2.9) 0.3
Gold (troy ounce) 1,894.4 1,829.2 1,824.0 1,969.3 8.0 7.8
Tin (metric ton) 20,290.0 39,100.0 24,900.0 25,760.0 3.5 1.6
Rubber (Kg) 1.5 1.78 1.30 1.35 3.4 (1.2)
Nickel (metric ton) 16,607.0 20,750.0 30,550.0 23,300.0 (23.7) (7.2)
Copper (metric ton) 7,766.0 9,720.5 8,372.0 8,993.0 7.4 0.4
Gas (MMBtu) 2.5 3.7 4.5 2.2 (50.5) (19.3)
Cocoa (metric ton) 2,413.0 2,450.1 2,515.6 2,784.1 7.0 (0.2)
Wheat (bushel) 640.5 770.8 792.0 692.3 (12.6) (1.9)

171.5
126.2
133.3
160.9
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Corn Wheat Rice Soybean
Global Food Price Index
Food prices increased in Mar-23
39
Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia’s Food Export
Prices of food exports rose in Mar-23
40
Source: Bloomberg
121.4
147.1
189.7
99.1
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Cocoa Coffee Robusta CPO Rubber-TSR

Risk Perception (CDS 5Y) in EM
CDS of most countries slightly rose in Mar-23
No. Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Mar-23 Δ mom Δ yoy
1 Indonesia 231 157 229 157 85 137 68 68 75 100 96 3 3
2 Philippine 108 90 107 110 67 88 34 36 56 97 93 2 4
3 Thailand 124 102 134 80 45 44 25 37 27 61 53 3 9
4 China 80 86 108 118 50 67 31 28 40 73 74 3 -1
5 South Korea 66 54 55 44 52 39 24 22 19 53 44 -1 9
6 Mexico 91 104 170 156 106 154 79 81 90 130 120 3 10
7 Brazil 193 201 494 281 226 207 99 143 205 254 229 -5 26
8 South Africa 200 190 335 217 176 222 163 204 203 250 273 15 -23
9 Turkey 253 183 273 273 266 361 282 306 564 512 523 -40 -11
96
229
273
523
-100
100
300
500
700
900
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Indonesia Brazil South Africa Turkey

Global Stock Indices
Global stock indices mostly still recorded a month-to-date increase in Mar-23
Stock Market Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Mar-23 % mtd % ytd
IDX– Indonesia 5,979 6,581 6,851 6,805 -0.66 -0.55
Nikkei – Japan 27,444 28,792 26,095 28,041 7.46 2.17
Hang Seng – Hong Kong 27,231 23,398 19,781 20,400 3.13 3.10
Dow Jones – US 30,606 36,338 33,147 33,274 0.38 1.89
STI – Singapore 2,844 3,124 3,251 3,259 0.23 -0.11
SET – Thailand 1,449 1,658 1,669 1,609 -3.57 -0.81
KLCI – Malaysia 1,627 1,568 1,495 1,423 -4.87 -2.17
Shanghai – China 3,473 3,640 3,089 3,273 5.94 -0.21
FTSE – UK 6,461 7,385 7,452 7,632 2.42 -3.10
DAX – Germany 13,719 15,885 13,924 15,629 12.25 1.72

10-year Bond Yields in Advanced and Emerging Economies
Bond yields mostly decreased in Mar-23
Bond (%) Rating (S&P) Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Mar-23 mtd (bps)
USA AA+u 0.9 1.51 3.87 3.55 -0.33
Japan A+u 0.0 0.07 0.41 0.31 -0.10
Australia AAAu 1.0 1.67 4.02 3.36 -0.69
UK AAu 0.2 0.97 3.66 3.52 -0.15
Germany AAAu -0.6 -0.18 2.56 2.37 -0.20
Indonesia BBB 2.0 2.2 4.8 4.8 0.6
Turkey B+u 5.4 7.6 9.0 8.7 -34.2
Brazil BB- 3.2 4.5 6.2 6.27 10.7

Global Currencies
Global currencies mostly appreciated against USD in Mar-23
Currency Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Feb-23 % ytd % mtd (  /  )
EUR – European Union 1.22 1.14 1.07 1.08 1.25 2.49 (  )
GBP – United Kingdom 1.37 1.35 1.21 1.23 2.10 2.62 (  )
JPY – Japan 103.25 115.08 131.12 132.86 1.33 -2.43 (  )
AUD – Australia 0.77 0.73 0.68 0.67 -1.88 -0.65 (  )
IDR – Indonesia 14,050.0 14,253.0 15,568.0 14,995.0 -3.7 -1.67 (  )
PHP – Philippines 48.0 51.0 55.7 54.4 -2.4 -1.75 (  )
CNY – China 6.5 6.4 6.9 6.9 -0.4 -0.89 (  )
BRL – Brazil 5.2 5.6 5.3 5.1 -4.1 -3.31 (  )
MXN – Mexico 19.9 20.5 19.5 18.0 -7.5 -1.42 (  )
TRY – Turkey 7.4 13.3 18.7 19.2 2.5 1.57 (  )
THB – Thailand 30.0 33.4 34.6 34.2 -1.2 -3.26 (  )
SGD – Singapore 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -0.6 -1.30 (  )
MYR – Malaysia 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.3 -1.61 (  )
KRW – South Korea 1,086.4 1,188.9 1,265.5 1,301.9 2.9 -1.60 (  )
ZAR – South Africa 14.7 15.9 17.0 17.8 4.5 -3.05 (  )

INDONESIA ECONOMIC UPDATE
45

GDP Growth by Expenditure
Indonesia’s economy continued to accelerate in 2022
Notes: Excluding change in stock & statistic discrepancy
Source: BPS
Quarterly GDP Growth (% yoy) Full-year GDP growth (%)
GDP growth by expenditure
Components
2020 (% yoy) 2021 (% yoy) 2022 (% yoy)
2020
(%)
2021
(%)
2022
(%)
Share
2020
(% of
GDP)
Share
2021
(% of
GDP)
Share
2022
(% of
GDP)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP 2.97 -5.32 -3.49 -2.19 -0.71 7.07 3.51 5.02 5.02 5.45 5.72 5.01 -2.07 3.69 5.31 100 100 100
Household spending 2.84 -5.52 -4.05 -3.61 -2.21 5.96 1.02 3.55 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 -2.63 2.02 4.93 57.6 54.4 51.87
Non-profit Institutions -5.01 -7.82 -1.97 -2.14 -3.99 4.15 2.79 3.29 5.85 5.05 5.87 5.70 -4.21 1.62 5.64 1.3 1.2 1.2
Government
expenditure
3.74 -6.90 9.76 1.76 2.58 8.03 0.62 5.25 -6.94 -4.86 -2.55 -4.77 2.12 4.24 -4.51 9.7 9.3 7.7
Investment 1.70 -8.61 -6.48 -6.15 -0.23 7.54 3.76 4.49 4.09 3.07 4.98 3.33 -4.96 3.80 3.87 31.7 30.8 29.1
Exports 0.36 -12.02 -11.66 -7.21 7.09 31.98 29.16 29.83 16.70 20.02 19.41 14.93 -8.14 17.95 16.28 17.3 21.4 24.5
Imports -3.62 -18.29 -23.00 -13.52 5.38 31.72 30.11 29.60 15.88 12.37 25.37 6.25 -17.6 24.87 14.75 15.6 18.8 20.9
5.065.055.014.96
2.97
-5.32
-3.49
-2.19
-0.71
7.07
3.51
5.025.025.455.725.01
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
6.17
6.02
5.56
5.01
4.88
5.02
5.07
5.17
5.02
-2.07
3.69
5.31
5.04
5.03
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023F
2024F

Indonesia’s 2023 Economic Growth Forecast
47
5.3%
5.3%
4.5%
4.7%
5.04%
4.8%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
5.7%
5.3%
5.5%
4.7%
5.1%
5.03%
5.0%
4.8%
5.6%
5.4%
4.9%
5.0%
Upper
Bound
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Lower
Bound
Ministry of Finance Bank Indonesia OECD Bank
Mandiri
ADB Moody's Fitch IMF WB Bloomberg
2023F 2024F
Source: OCE BMRI, Various source

Economic Growth by Sector
Growth of most sectors accelerated in 4Q22
Sector
2015
(%)
2016
(%)
2017
(%)
2018
(%)
2019
(%)
2020
(%)
2021
(%)
2022
(%)
2Q22
(% yoy)
3Q22
(% yoy)
4Q22
(% yoy)
Share
(% of GDP)
Agriculture. Forestry and Fisheries 3.75 3.37 3.87 3.91 3.61 1.77 1.87 2.25 1.38 1.95 4.51 12.91
Mining & Quarrying -3.42 0.95 0.66 2.16 1.22 -1.95 4.00 4.38 4.01 3.22 6.46 13.47
Manufacturing Industry 4.33 4.26 4.29 4.27 3.80 -2.93 3.39 4.89 4.01 4.83 5.64 17.88
Electricity & Gas Supply 0.90 5.39 1.54 5.47 4.04 -2.34 5.5 6.61 9.33 8.05 2.31 1.02
Water Supply. Sewerage. Waste &
Recycle
7.07 3.60 4.60 5.46 6.83 4.94 4.97 3.23 4.46 4.26 2.84 0.06
Construction 6.36 5.22 6.80 6.09 5.76 -3.26 2.81 2.01 1.02 0.63 1.61 9.45
Wholesales and Retail Trade. Repair of
Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles
2.54 4.03 4.46 4.97 4.60 -3.79 4.63 5.52 4.42 5.37 6.55 12.74
Transportation & Storage 6.71 7.45 8.49 7.01 6.38 -15.05 3.24 19.87 21.27 25.80 16.99 5.01
Accommodation & Food Beverages Activity 4.31 5.17 5.39 5.66 5.79 -10.26 3.89 11.97 9.76 17.83 13.81 2.32
Information & Communication 9.70 8.88 9.63 7.04 9.42 10.61 6.82 7.74 8.07 6.95 8.75 4.01
Financial & Insurance Activity 8.58 8.93 5.47 4.17 6.61 3.25 1.56 1.93 1.50 0.87 3.76 3.98
Real Estate 4.11 4.69 3.66 3.58 5.76 2.32 2.78 1.72 2.16 0.63 0.39 2.41
Business Services 7.69 7.36 8.44 8.64 10.25 -5.44 0.73 8.77 7.92 10.79 10.42 1.69
Gov't Administration. Defense &
Compulsory Social Security
4.63 3.20 2.06 7.02 4.66 -0.03 -0.33 2.52 -1.56 12.48 1.78 2.88
Education Services 7.33 3.84 3.70 5.36 6.30 2.61 0.11 0.59 -1.09 4.46 0.42 2.78
Human Health & Social Services 6.69 5.16 6.84 7.13 8.66 11.56 10.46 2.74 6.49 -1.71 2.47 1.20
Other Services 8.08 7.8 8.73 8.99 10.57 -4.10 2.12 9.47 9.26 9.13 11.14 1.71
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 4.88 5.03 5.07 5.17 5.02 -2.07 3.69 5.31 5.44 5.73 5.01 100.00
Source: BPS

Source: BPS
(% yoy)
Regional GDP
Province 2019 2020 2021 2022
NAD 4.14 -0.37 2.78 4.21
North Sumatra 5.22 -1.07 2.61 4.73
West Sumatra 4.99 -1.60 3.27 4.36
Riau 2.79 -1.12 3.35 4.55
Jambi 4.32 -0.46 3.66 5.13
South Sumatra 5.66 -0.11 3.57 5.23
Bengkulu 4.92 -0.02 3.24 4.31
Lampung 5.24 -1.67 2.79 4.28
Bangka Belitung 3.30 -2.30 5.04 4.40
Riau Island 4.73 -3.80 3.42 4.55
DKI Jakarta 5.75 -2.36 3.54 5.25
West Java 5.06 -2.44 3.61 5.45
Central Java 5.39 -2.65 3.28 5.31
D.I. Yogyakarta 6.59 -2.69 5.54 5.15
East Java 5.50 -2.39 3.64 5.34
Banten 5.24 -3.38 4.41 5.03
Bali 5.57 -9.31 -2.49 4.84
Province 2019 2020 2021 2022
West Nusa Tenggara 3.85 -0.64 2.32 6.95
East Nusa Tenggara 5.22 -0.83 2.52 3.05
West Kalimantan 5.10 -1.82 4.78 5.07
Central Kalimantan 6.09 -1.40 3.37 6.45
South Kalimantan 4.71 -2.85 2.42 5.11
East Kalimantan 4.04 -1.81 3.47 4.48
North Kalimantan 6.20 -1.11 3.98 5.34
North Sulawesi 5.64 -0.99 4.16 5.42
Central Sulawesi 8.83 4.86 11.70 15.17
South Sulawesi 6.91 -0.70 4.63 5.09
Southeast Sulawesi 6.48 -0.65 4.10 5.53
Gorontalo 6.39 -0.02 2.42 4.04
West Sulawesi 5.68 -2.42 2.47 2.30
Maluku 5.37 -0.92 3.04 5.11
North Maluku 6.03 4.92 17.03 22.94
West Papua 2.66 -0.77 -0.49 2.01
Papua -15.79 2.32 15.20 8.97
Most provinces recorded economic improvement in 2022

INDONESIA LEADING INDICATORS
50

Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI)
MLEI Prediction: Lower GDP growth in 4Q22 than 3Q22 confirmed
Source: Office of Chief Economist (as of April 2023) 51
MLEI increased by 0.3% to 99.1 in December
2022.
• The 3Q22 MLEI quarterly average figure
was 100.4, lower than the 2Q22 MLEI of
102. This value indicates that the economic
growth will be lower than 5.73% in 4Q22,
confirmed by economic growth in 4Q22
accelerated by only 5.01%.
• Now we will see the preliminary figure of
4Q22 MLEI of 99, which indicates the
economic growth in 1Q23 will grow ranging
from 4.75% to 5% in 1Q23 or lower than
5.01% in 4Q22. The economy still supported
by solid domestic fundamentals as the
global economy substantially improve and
stronger business activity, despite the risk
factors from geopolitical tensions, global
financial market turbulences, and possibility
of higher global interest rates.
99.1
100.5
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22
MLEI (lhs) MCEI (rhs)

Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI) Confirmation
MLEI indication was in line with GDP growth realization
Source: BPS, Office of Chief Economist (as of 4Q22) 52
• Indonesia’s GDP growth improved by 5.01%
(yoy) in 4Q22, lower than 5.72% (yoy) in
3Q22. The household consumption expenditure
component increased by 4.48% (yoy) while
government expenditure decreased by 4.77%
(yoy) in 4Q22 (vs. -2.55% (yoy) in 3Q22).
Furthermore, the source of growth for 2022 will
come from export growth and household
consumption spending.
• The recovery of economic growth in 2022
will continue in line with the improvement in
the global economy, increased household
consumption, export performance, and
investment. Overall, the realization of national
economic growth grew by 5.31% (yoy), above
the expectations of the Bank Mandiri economic
research team of 5.17% (yoy) in 2022.
Economic growth will continue with an estimated
5.04% (yoy) in 2023.
99.0
5.01
-7.00
-5.00
-3.00
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
90.0
93.0
96.0
99.0
102.0
105.0
108.0
1Q05
4Q05
3Q06
2Q07
1Q08
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14
4Q14
3Q15
2Q16
1Q17
4Q17
3Q18
2Q19
1Q20
4Q20
3Q21
2Q22
MLEI (quarterly average) - lhs Real GDP Growth (%, yoy) - lhs
rhs

MLEI breakdown
Average MLEI in 4Q22 was lower than MLEI in 3Q22
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22* Apr-22* May-22* Jun-22* Jul-22* Aug-22* Sep-22* Oct-22* Nov-22* Dec-22*
Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI) 101.4 101.5 101.8 102.4 102.0 101.7 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.3 98.8 99.1
Change (%MoM) (0.1) 0.1 0.2 0.6 (0.4) (0.3) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (0.3) (0.5) 0.3
Average
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22* Apr-22* May-22* Jun-22* Jul-22* Aug-22* Sep-22* Oct-22* Nov-22* Dec-22*
Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI) 101.4 101.5 101.8 102.4 102.0 101.7 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.3 98.8 99.1
Consumer Goods Import 100.9 100.6 100.3 102.3 100.6 100.7 100.5 100.1 99.6 99.9 99.5 100.2
Real US GDP Index 101.0 101.2 101.6 101.8 101.6 101.1 100.4 99.7 99.2 99.8 100.0 99.7
Import Index 101.8 102.0 102.5 103.0 103.1 102.7 101.9 100.7 99.4 98.3 97.4 99.9
Export Index 102.4 103.0 103.6 104.0 104.0 103.4 102.5 101.2 99.9 98.8 97.8 97.1
12-mth State Banks Real Time Dep. Rate 100.8 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.3 100.0 99.6 99.1 98.7
note : *) preliminary
Index > 100 and increasing indicates expansion
Index > 100 but decreasing indicates downturn
Index < 100 and decreasing indicates slowdown
Index < 100 but increasing indicates recovery
Changes in parentheses indicate negative numbers
1Q - 2022 2Q - 2022 3Q - 2022 4Q - 2022
101.5 102.0 100.4 99.0
1Q - 2022 2Q - 2022 3Q - 2022 4Q - 2022

MCEI breakdown
Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22* Jul-22* Aug-22* Sep-22* Oct-22* Nov-22* Dec-22* Jan-23* Feb-23* Mar-23*
Mandiri Coincident Economic Index (MCEI) 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 101.0 100.8 100.4 100.8 100.8 100.5
Change (%, mom) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) 0.5 (0.0) (0.3)
Average
Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22* Jul-22* Aug-22* Sep-22* Oct-22* Nov-22* Dec-22* Jan-23* Feb-23* Mar-23*
Mandiri Coincident Economic Index (MCEI) 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 101.0 100.8 100.4 100.8 100.8 100.5
Imports: Raw Materials Index 101.8 102.5 103.0 103.0 102.4 101.3 99.9 98.5 97.2 100.0 100.3 100.0
Interbank Call Money Rate: USD: 1 Day Index 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.2
Equity Market Index: Month End: IDX 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.6 101.2 102.0 102.4 102.4 101.9 101.4 101.2 101.0
US Dollar: Spot: Mid: Monthly - eop Index 100.8 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.7 100.4 100.0 99.6
Business Activity: Expectation: (WNB)Index 99.5 99.0 98.8 99.0 99.6 100.5 101.2 101.5 101.5 101.6 101.7 101.7
note : *) preliminary
Index > 100 and increasing indicates expansion
Index > 100 but decreasing indicates downturn
Index < 100 and decreasing indicates slowdown
Index < 100 but increasing indicates recovery
Changes in parentheses indicate negative numbers
1Q - 2023
100.7
1Q - 2023
2Q - 2022
2Q - 2022
100.6
3Q - 2022
100.9
3Q - 2022
4Q - 2022
100.7
4Q - 2022

Mandiri Financial Performance Index (MFPI)
Banking Sector Condition is in Normal Threshold
MFPI in March 2023 decelerated by 2.73% (mom) to 77.29 level. This position indicates that the condition of the Indonesian banking sector is in normal condition. In January 2023, the
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) stood at 25.88%, while non-performing loans (NPL) reached 2.59% (gross) or 0.76% (net). Central Bank decided on 15 - 16 March 2023 to hold the BI
7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRRR) at 5.75%, the Deposit Facility interest rate at 5%, and the Lending Facility interest rate at 6.5%. The decision is consistent with the pre-emptive and
forward-looking monetary policy stance to ensure lower inflation expectations and inflation moving forward.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
note: * preliminary
Mar*
77.29
(2.73)
Prospective :
Alert :
122.11
Dec
92.43
0.32 0.15
Dec
77 < MFPI < 113
Dec
88.59 Normal :
97.38
(6.88)
2.55
82.98
(2.42)
MFPI Threshold
MFPI < 77
Period
Dec MFPI > 113
Dec
96.08
Dec Dec
3.92
Chg (%mom) (0.43)
MFPI 97.54
77.29
40
80
120
160
200
Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul-17 May-18 Mar-19 Jan-20 Nov-20 Sep-21 Jul-22
Mandiri Financial Performance Index (MFPI)
MFPI Prospective Signal Alert Signal

Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI)
Maintain Prospective Outlook in Next 6-9 months
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI) is a leading indicator of the banking sector in Indonesia. It is an indicator that provides a predicted direction of MFPI’s movement in the next
6-9 months. In January 2023, MBPI decreased 0.41% (mom) to 207.06 level. The position of MBPI was still above the 103 level, which means we still predicted the Indonesian banking
sector to be in the prospective condition in the period from July 2023 to October 2023 as Bank Indonesia maintained policies to support economic growth and rupiah stabilization.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
note: * preliminary
(0.41)
2.62
12.27
Dec
Period
Dec
177.41
MBPI 190.09
8.57
207.93
MBPI < 61
Chg (%mom) (4.73)
(4.81) 3.53
7.20
Jan*
61 < MBPI < 103
166.05
201.98 Normal :
179.94
Dec
Dec
Dec
207.06
Alert :
157.87
MBPI Threshold
Dec Prospective : MBPI > 103
Dec
207.06
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jan-22 Oct-22
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI)
MBPI Prospective Signal Alert Signal

Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Consumer optimism is decreasing.
Source: Bank Indonesia 57
120.2
110.0
117.1
122.5
125.1
117.7
85.8
113.1
122.4
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
(Index)

Retail Sales Index (RSI)
BI expects the annual retail sales index to weaken in February 23.
205.2
1.7
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Retail Sales Index (LHS) Growth % yoy (RHS)

Domestic Motorcycle Sales
Motorcycle sales increased in cumulatively in 2M2023
*) Cumulative growth
Source: Astra
FY2022 % yoy* Feb-2023 % yoy
Sales
(‘000 units)
483.3 3.2 575.5 56.3
6,383.16,487.5
3,660.6
5,057.5
5,221.4
812.0
1,190.9
1.6%
-43.6%
38.2%
3.2%
5.1%
46.7%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2M22 2M23
%
yoy
million
unit
Annual Motorcycle Sales
Sales Growth yoy
575.5
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
000
unit
Motorcycle Sales Domestic (000 unit)

Indonesia Cement Consumption by Area
Cement consumption contracted in Feb-23
Source : ASI
Region 2022 % yoy Feb-23 % mtd % yoy 2M23 % yoy
Jakarta 2.55 10.21% 0.19 -2.41 -0.95 0.38 -5.19
Banten 3.36 16.13% 0.27 -5.45 8.77 0.55 6.60
West Java 10.66 6.14% 0.70 -10.15 -13.16 1.47 -3.43
Central Java 7.35 -9.90% 0.44 -14.89 -22.58 0.95 -20.74
Yogyakarta 0.98 -9.57% 0.07 -13.65 3.90 0.16 4.79
East java 8.35 16.18% 0.59 -12.47 -3.52 1.27 -2.33
Total Java 33.26 4.96% 2.26 -10.73 -9.32 4.79 -6.10
Sumatera 13.31 4.08% 1.00 -6.65 -1.07 2.08 -3.31
Kalimantan 4.25 10.27% 0.32 -6.55 13.70 0.67 6.64
Sulawesi 6.42 9.04% 0.44 -14.86 -15.68 0.95 -16.72
Nusa
Tenggara
3.50 5.55% 0.29 9.26 30.75 0.55 10.84
Maluku and
Papua
2.18 14.50% 0.18 -0.63 3.33 0.36 -2.99
Total
Indonesia
62.91 5.86% 4.49 -8.53 -4.51 9.40 -4.95
62.0
61.6 66.4
69.5
70.0
62.5
65.2
62.8
4.6 4.5
-0.6%
7.6%
4.7%
0.8%
-10.7%
4.3%
-3.7%
-0.6%
-2.6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Feb-22
Feb-23
Cement Sales- milion mt Growth % yoy
Cement Sales
Cement Sales by Region (million mt)

United Tractors Sales Volume
Sales volume decreased in Feb-23
Source: United Tractors 61
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
Mining Forestry Construction Agro
Sales Volume (unit)
201
546
216
528
372
351
264
166
275

BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND EXTERNAL TRADE
62

Indonesia’s Balance of Payment and FX Reserves
External resilience maintained as the BoP recorded surplus
63
Source: Bank Indonesia
-0.4
4.3
4.7
137.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
USD
bn
USD
bn
Capital & Financial Account - LHS
Current Account - LHS
Overall Balance - LHS
Reserve Assets - RHS
140.3
6.2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Oct-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Months
USD
Bn
International Reserve - LHS
Import cover- RHS

Indonesia’s External Trade Balance
Indonesia’s trade surplus in Feb-23 was up to USD5.5 bn
Source: BPS 64
5.5
21.4
15.9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
6
11
16
21
26
31
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
USD
bn
USD
bn
Trade Balance - RHS Export - LHS Import - LHS

Indonesia’s Trade Balance
Trade surplus unexpectedly jumped in Feb-23
Notes: * Cumulative Growth
Source: BPS 65
Period Export % yoy* Import % yoy* Trade Balance
2010 157,817 35 135,663 40 22,153
2011 203,497 29 177,436 31 26,061
2012 190,032 -7 191,691 8 -1,659
2013 182,552 -4 186,629 -3 -4,077
2014 175,980 -4 178,179 -5 -2,199
2015 150,366 -15 142,695 -20 7,671
2016 145,186 -3 135,653 -5 9,533
2017 168,828 16 156,986 16 11,843
2018 180,013 7 188,711 20 -8,699
2019 167,683 -7 171,276 -9 -3,593
2020 163,192 -3 141,569 -17 21,623
2021 231,522 42 196,190 39 35,332
2022 291,979 26 237,447 21 54,532
2M23 43,721 10 34,362 -1 9,359
% mom % yoy % mom % yoy
Jan-23 22,324 -6 16 18,443 -7 1 3,881
Feb-23 21,397 -4 5 15,919 -14 -4 5,478

Indonesia’s Trade Balance
On annual basis, both NOG export and import decelerated in Feb-23
Source: BPS 66
Period
Oil & Gas
Export
% yoy*
Non-Oil &
Gas Export
% yoy*
Oil & Gas
Import
% yoy*
Non-Oil &
Gas Import
% yoy*
2010 28,040 47 129,777 33 27,413 44 108,251 39
2011 41,477 48 162,020 25 40,702 48 136,734 26
2012 36,977 -11 153,055 -6 42,564 5 149,127 9
2013 32,633 -12 149,919 -2 45,266 6 141,362 -5
2014 30,019 -8 145,961 -3 43,460 -4 134,719 -5
2015 18,574 -38 131,792 -10 24,613 -43 118,082 -12
2016 13,105 -29 132,081 0.2 18,739 -24 116,913 -1
2017 15,744 20 153,084 16 24,316 30 132,669 13
2018 17,237 9 162,776 6 29,869 23 158,842 20
2019 11,789 -32 155,894 -4 21,885 -27 149,390 -6
2020 8,251 -30 154,941 -1 14,257 -35 127,312 -15
2021 12,275 49 219,247 42 25,529 79 170,660 34
2022 16,020 31 275,959 26 40,416 58 197,031 15
2M23 41,046 41 41,046 9 5,313 4 29,049 -2
% mom % yoy % mom % yoy % mom % yoy % mom % yoy
Jan-23 1,488 1 65 20,836 -7 14 2,906 -9 30 15,537 -7 -3
Feb-23 1,187 -20 19 20,210 -3 4 2,407 -17 -17 13,513 -13 -2

Indonesia’s NOG Export and Import by Country
NOG export and import to the main trading partners mostly decreased in Feb-23
Source: BPS 67
NON-OIL AND GAS (NOG) EXPORT BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION
NON-OIL AND GAS (NOG) IMPORT BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Country of Origin
Feb-23
(USD mn)
% mom
2M23
(USD mn)
% yoy* Share* (%)
China 4,039 -24.09 9,359 -10.72 32.22
Japan 1,407 3.42 2,767 8.85 9.53
Thailand 899 0.40 1,794 -8.79 6.17
South Korea 776 -4.36 1,588 -1.33 5.46
US 584 -24.46 1,356 20.13 4.67
Country of Destination
Feb-23
(USD mn)
% mom
2M23
(USD mn)
% yoy* Share* (%)
China 5,038 -4.01 10,287 42.12 25.06
US 1,912 -1.83 3,860 -22.15 9.40
Japan 1,737 -8.07 3,627 12.63 8.84
India 1,612 19.05 2,967 20.18 7.23
South Korea 712 -23.45 1,643 -2.94 4.00

Top Five NOG Export - Import by Commodity
The main import commodities were reported mostly decreased in Feb-23
Source: BPS 68
NON-OIL AND GAS (NOG) EXPORT BY COMMODITY
NON-OIL AND GAS (NOG) IMPORT BY COMMODITY
Commodity (USD mn) Feb-23 % mom 2M23 % yoy* Share* (%)
Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers; parts
thereof
2,289 -7.3 4,758 -2.1 16.4
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof 1,979 -15.2 4,313 7.7 14.9
Plastics and articles thereof 664 -15.2 1,447 -24.7 5.0
Cereals 450 -18.6 1,002 38.1 3.5
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation 312 -25.7 733 105.5 2.5
Commodity (USD mn) Jan-23 % mom 2M23 % yoy* Share* (%)
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation 3,980 -6.5 8,238 94.3 20.1
Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products 2,468 4.5 4,830 -0.3 11.8
Iron and steel 2,153 2.1 4,262 3.9 10.4
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof 1,431 10.9 2,721 27.3 6.6
Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones 568 -30.1 1,380 2.1 3.4

Import by Category
All import categories decreased in Feb-23
Source: BPS 69
Category Feb-23 % mom 2M23 % yoy* Share (%)
Consumer Goods 1,364 -14.5 2,960 6.4 8.6
Raw Material 11,792 -15.1 25,679 -3.7 74.7
Capital Goods 2,763 -6.6 5,723 5.9 16.7
Total Import 15,919 -13.7 34,362 -1.4 100

Investment Realization in Indonesia
Direct investment in 2022 reached the highest number ever recorded, boosted mostly by FDI
Source: Ministry of Investment
86.5
54.9
94.5
144.2
112.4
148.0
175.3
221.0
270.4
307.0
366.0
396.5
430.6
392.7
423.1 412.8
454.0
654.5
30.7 20.6 34.9 20.4
37.8
60.6
76.0
92.2
128.2
156.1
179.4
216.3 262.3
328.6
386.5
413.5
447.0
552.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FDI (IDR tn) DDI (IDR tn)
70

Direct Investment
Annual growth of FDI and DDI increased in 2022
FDI in 2022 DDI in 2022
71
654.5
44%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
FDI (IDR tn) Growth (% yoy)
552.7
24%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
DDI (IDR tn) Growth (% yoy)

Investment Realization by Industry in 2022
Overall direct investment favored Metal, Metal Goods, Except Machinery, and Equipment Industry
72
Metal, Metal Goods, Except
Machinery, and Equipment
Industry
24%
Mining
11%
Chemical & Pharmaceutical
Industry
10%
Transport, Storage & Communication 9%
Electricity, Gas & Water
Supply, 8%
Real Estate,Ind Estate &
Business Activities
7%
Food Industry
5%
Food Corps, Plantation and
Livestock
4%
Paper & Printing Industry
4%
Other Services
3%
Others
15%

Domestic and Foreign Investment by Industry in 2022
Foreign investments favored Metal, Metal Goods, Except Machinery, and Equipment Industry
73
Foreign Investment
Domestic Investment
Total IDR552.8 tn Total IDR654.4 tn
Transportation, Warehouse
& Telecommunication IDR75.1 tn (13.6%)
Housing, Industrial Estate,
and Office Building
Mining
Food Industry
Food Corps, Plantation
and Livestock
Value (Share of total DDI) Value (Share of total FDI)
IDR66.2 tn (12.0%)
IDR62.5 tn (11.3%)
IDR54.9 tn (9.9%)
IDR38.9 tn (7.0%)
Metal, Metal Goods, Except Machinery,
and Equipment Industry
Mining
Chemical and
Pharmaceutical Industry
Transportation, Warehouse,
and Telecommunication
Electricity, Gas, and Water
IDR11.0 bn (24.0%)
IDR5.1 bn (11.3%)
IDR4.5 bn (9.9%)
IDR4.1 bn (9.0%)
IDR3.8 bn (8.3%)

Investment Realization by Location in 2022
Central Sulawesi received the most FDI
74
Foreign Investment
Domestic Investment
Total IDR552.8 tn Total USD45.6 bn
Special Capital Region of Jakarta – IDR89.2 tn
(16.1% of total)
West Java – IDR80.8 tn
(14.6% of total)
East Java – IDR65.4 tn
(11.8% of total)
Riau – IDR43.1 tn
(7.8% of total)
East Kalimantan – IDR39.6 tn
(7.2% of total)
Central Sulawesi – USD7.5 bn
(16.4% of total)
West Java – USD6.5 bn
(14.3% of total)
North Maluku – USD4.5 bn
(9.8% of total)
Special Capital Region of Jakarta – USD3.7 bn
(8.2% of total)
Banten – USD3.4 bn
(7.5% of total)

Investment Realization by Country in 2022
Singapore remained the main investor of FDI
75
1 USD13.3 bn
(29.2% of total)
USD8.2 bn
(18.0% of total)
USD5.5 bn
(12.1% of total)
USD3.6 bn
(7.9% of total)
USD3.3 bn
(7.2% of total)
2
3
4
5
Singapore
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Malaysia
Total FDI
USD45.6 bn

Investment Realization by Country in 2018 - 2022
76
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1
Singapore
(USD9.2 bn, 31.4%)
Singapore
(USD6.5 bn, 23.1%)
Singapore
(USD9.8 bn, 34.1%)
Singapore
(USD9.4 bn, 30.2%)
Singapore
(USD13.3 bn, 29.2%)
2
Japan
(USD4.9 bn, 61.7%)
China
(USD4.7 bn, 16.8%)
China
(USD4.8 bn, 16.7%)
Hong Kong
(USD4.6 bn, 14.8%)
China
(USD8.2 bn, 18.0%)
3
China
(USD2.4 bn, 8.2%)
Japan
(USD4.3 bn, 15.3%)
Hong Kong
(USD3.5 bn, 12.1%)
China
(USD3.2 bn, 10.2%)
Hong Kong
(USD5.5 bn, 12.1%)
4
Hong Kong
(USD2.0 bn, 6.8%)
Hong Kong
(USD2.9 bn, 10.2%)
Japan
(USD2.6 bn, 9.1%)
USA
(USD2.5 bn 8.2%)
Japan
(USD3.6 bn, 7.9%)
5
Malaysia
(USD1.8bn, 6.2%)
Netherlands
(USD2.6 bn, 9.2%)
South Korea
(USD1.8 bn, 6.3%)
Japan
(USD2.3 bn, 7.3%)
Malaysia
(USD3.3 bn, 7.2%)

GOVERNMENT FINANCE
77

State Budget Deficit
Fiscal deficit is expected to be at -2.84% of GDP in 2023
Source: Ministry of Finance
-269.4
-348.7
-947.7
-775.1
-464.3
-598.2
-11.5
-73.1
-633.6
-431.6
-78.0
-156.8
-1.82
-2.20
-6.14
-4.57
-2.38
-2.84
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
Deficit (IDR tn) - lhs Primary Balance (IDR tn) - lhs Deficit to GDP (%) - rhs
78

INDICATORS
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
APBN Realization APBN Realization APBN Realization APBN Realization APBN
Economic Growth (%) 5.3 5.02 5.3 -2.07 5.0 3.69 5.2 5.3 5.3
Inflation (%) 3.5 2.7 3.1 1.7 3.0 1.87 3.0 5.51 3.6
Exchange Rate (IDR/USD) 15,000 14,146 14,400 14,578 14,600 14,312 14,350 14,871 14,800
ICP Price (USD/barrel) 70 62 63 40 45 68 63 97.09 90
Oil Lifting (‘000 bpd) 775 746 755 706 705 662 703 615 660
Gas Lifting (‘000 boepd) 1,250 1,057 1191 975 1,007 982 1,036 953 1,100
Bond Yield (%) 7.29 6.35 6.80 7.05 7.9
Macroeconomic Assumptions
The government targets Indonesia’s economy to expand by 5.3% in 2023

INDICATORS 2021
Realization
2022
Realization
2023
Budget
Feb-22
Realization
Feb-22
Growth
(% yoy)
Feb-23
Realization
Feb-23
Realization to
APBN (%)
Feb-23 Growth
(% yoy)
AGovernment Revenue 2,011.3 2,626.4 2,463.0 302.6 37.8 419.6 17.0 38.7
Tax and Excise Duties Revenue 1,547.8 2,034.5 2,021.2 256.2 41.0 333.2 16.5 30.1
I. Tax Revenue 1,278.6 1,716.8 1,718.0 199.5 36.5 280.0 16.3 40.4
II. Excises Duties 269.2 317.8 303.2 56.7 59.3 53.3 17.6 -6.1
Non Tax Revenue 458.5 588.3 441.4 46.3 22.8 86.4 19.6 86.6
B Total Spending 2,786.4 3,090.8 3,061.2 282.7 -0.1 287.8 9.4 1.8
Central Govt. Expenditure 2,000.7 2,274.5 2,246.5 172.2 -4.2 182.6 8.1 6.0
I. Spending K/L 1190.8 1079.3 1,000.8 78.6 -19.0 76.4 7.6 -2.8
II. Spending Non K/L 809.9 1195.2 1,245.6 93.6 13.2 106.2 8.5 13.4
Regional Transfer and Village
Funds
785.7 816.2 814.7 110.5 7.1 105.2 12.9 -4.8
C Primary Balance -431.6 -78 -156.8 61.9 370.1 182.2 -116.2 194.3
D Surplus/Deficit -775.1 -464.3 -598.2 19.9 131.8 -22.0 562.2
% to GDP -4.57 -2.38 -2.84 0.1 0.63
E Govt. Financing 871.7 583.5 598.2 84.0 182.2 30.5
Excess of budget financing (SiLPA) 84.9 119.2
State Budget (APBN)
In Feb-23, the state budget recorded a fiscal surplus at 0.63% of GDP

State Spending Budget by Sector and Ministry
Government sets higher spending allocation for infrastructure in 2023
81
575
503
364
213
94
612
476
392
179
104
6.5%
-5.3%
7.8%
-16.0%
10.7%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Education
Social
Protection
Infrastructure
Health
Food
Security
2022 State Spending Budget (IDR tn) - LHS
2023 State Spending Budget (IDR tn) - LHS
Growth (% yoy) - RHS
80
19
20
33
45
70
78
80
85
125
134
77
17
22
33
44
66
78
73
97
101
135
Others
Ministry of Law & Human Rights
Ministry of Comm. & Information
Ministry of Transportation
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Religious Affairs
Ministry of Social Affairs
Ministry of National Education
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Public Works
Ministry of Defense
(IDR tn)
2022 2023
Spending Budget by Ministries
Spending Budget by Sectors

Spending Realization
State spending in Feb-23 has realized 9% of the 2023 target
127
283
491
751
938
1244
1445
1657
1914
2351
2614
3091
141
288
-13%
0% -6%
4%
-1%
6% 6% 6% 6%
14% 13% 11% 11%
2%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Total Spending Realization
Total Spending (IDR tn) - lhs Growth (% yoy) - rhs
5% 10%
18%
28% 35%
46% 53%
61%
71%
87%
96%
114%
5% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Total Spending Realization to APBN (%)
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Total Spending (IDR tn) 127 283 491 751 938 1244 1445 1657 1914 2351 2614 3091 141 288
Growth (% yoy) -13% 0% -6% 4% -1% 6% 6% 6% 6% 14% 13% 11% 11% 2%
Total Revenue Realization to
APBN (%) 5% 10% 18% 28% 35% 46% 53% 61% 71% 87% 96% 114% 5% 9%
State Budget (APBN) 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 2714 3061 3061
Source: Ministry of Finance 82

156
302
501
854
1070
1317
1551
1764
1975
2182
2378
2626
232
420
56%
38%
32%
46% 47%
49%
50%
50%
46% 44%
40%
31%
49%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Total Revenue Realization
Total Revenue (IDR tn) - lhs Growth (% yoy) - rhs
8%
16%
27%
46%
58%
71%
84%
96%
107%
118%
129%
142%
9% 17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Total Revenue Realization to APBN (%)
Revenue Realization
State revenue in Feb-23 has realized 17% of the 2023 target
Total Revenue (IDR tn) 156 302 501 854 1070 1317 1551 1764 1975 2182 2378 2626 232 420
Growth (% yoy) 56% 38% 32% 46% 47% 49% 50% 50% 46% 44% 40% 31% 49% 39%
Total Revenue Realization to
APBN (%) 8% 16% 27% 46% 58% 71% 84% 96% 107% 118% 129% 142% 9% 17%
83

-2%
7%
13% 14%
8%
18%
23%
32%
48% 50% 51%
66%
14%
25%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Bond Issuance Realization to APBN (%)
Bond Issuance Realization
Bond issuance realization in Feb-23 has realized 25% of the 2023 target
-16
68
134 142
75
182
224
317
471 500 504
659
99
178
-109%
-75%
-60% -66%
-78%
-61%
-54%
-44%
-29%
-25%
-25%
-25%
725%
162%
-300%
-100%
100%
300%
500%
700%
900%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Bond Issuance Realization
Bond Issuance (IDR tn) - lhs Growth (% yoy) - rhs
Bond Issuance (IDR tn) -16 68 134 142 75 182 224 317 471 500 504 659 99 178
Growth (% yoy) -109% -75% -60% -66% -78% -61% -54% -44% -29% -25% -25% -25% 725% 162%
Bond Issuance Realization to
APBN (%) -2% 7% 13% 14% 8% 18% 23% 32% 48% 50% 51% 66% 14% 25%
84

Government budget deficit financing 2023 (IDR tn)
Budget
2023
Budget deficit % of GDP -2.84
Budget deficit (IDR tn) -598.2
Non-Debt Financing Nett -114.7
Government bond net issuances 712.9
Government bond gross issuances 1,193.2
Realized issuance as of 28-Mar-2023 293.8
Domestic bonds 246.3
Auction conventional FR/VR and T-Bills/ZC 145.2
Retail bonds (ORI & Sukuk) 22.2
Domestic Sukuk 76.0
Private placement (inc. Voluntary Disclosure Program) 2.9
Global bonds 47.5
USD & Euro Bonds 46.8
Samurai Bonds 0.0
Global Sukuk 0.0
SDG bonds 0.0
VDP FX 0.7
Government Bond Gross Issuances
Government bond gross issuance amounted IDR293.8 tn or 25% of FY23 target
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 28-Mar-23 85

Corp. IDR Bonds Maturity
The highest level will be in 2024
Source: KSEI, Mandiri Sekuritas Fixed Income Team 86
102.5 104.8
96.3
44.6
51.9
15.5 14.0
4.5
0.8
6.2
0.5 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.9 1.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2038
2039
2040
2045
IDR trillion

External Debt Position by Group of Borrower
External debt of government increased in Jan-23
194
9
201
405
110
160
210
260
310
360
410
0
50
100
150
200
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jan-23
USD
bn
USD
bn
Government - LHS Central Bank - LHS Private - LHS Total - RHS

Private External Debt Position by Economic Sector
Financial & insurance activities remained to be the sector with the highest external debt
75.2
36.3
44.9
37.4 36.4 37.2 34.2 33.8
24.5
17.6
42.8
69.8
46.7
42.7 39.8 37.4 34.6 32.5 29.4
20.5
14.3
37.4
Financial
and
Insurance
Activities
Human
Health
and
Social
Work
Activities
Electricity,
Gas,
Steam
and
Air
Conditioning
Supply
Manufacturing
Mining
&
Drilling
Public
Administration
and
Defence;
Compulsory
Social
Security
Education
Construction
Transportation
and
Storage
Agriculture,
Husbandry,
Forestry
&
Fishing
Others
Jan-22 Jan-23

External Debt Position by Remaining Maturity
Share of short-term external debt to total external debt increased in Jan-23
Term Borrower 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jan-23
Jan-23
Share
to total
(%)
Short Term Debt Government 7,504 7,013 7,434 8,204 12,867 10,968 14,111 12,690 14,310 16,093 8.3
≤ 1 Year Central Bank 2,871 2323.0 635.0 491.0 354.0 283.0 21.0 27.0 871.9 880 9.4
Private 48,888 46,166 46,642 46,127 46,319 52,063 51,121 46,713 51,466 51,133 25.4
Long Term Debt Government 116,302 130,383 147,442 169,114 170,330 188,909 192,264 187,485 172,164 178,195 91.7
≥ 1 Year Central Bank 3,059 2,889 2,773 2,812 2,724 2,714 2,850 9,003 8,326 8,464 90.6
Private 114,704 121,957 115,080 125,720 145,553 149,569 157,115 159,614 149,706 150,112 74.6
TOTAL
Government 123,806 137,396 154,875 177,318 183,197 199,876 206,375 200,175 186,474 194,288
Central Bank 5,930 5,212 3,408 3,304 3,078 2,996 2,871 9,030 9,198 9,344
Private 163,592 168,123 161,722 171,847 191,872 201,632 208,235 206,327 201,172 201,245
(USD mn)

External Debt Burden Indicators
Debt-to-GDP ratio in 4Q22 was 30.1%, lower than IMF’s 60% safety level
27.7
177.9
30.1
321.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
%
%
Debt Service Ratio - LHS Debt to Export Ratio - LHS Debt to GDP Ratio - LHS Debt to Reserve Ratio - RHS

Growth of Money Supply
M0, M1, and M2 growth decelerated in Feb-23
Period
M0
% yoy
M1
% yoy
M2
% yoy
(IDR tn) (IDR tn) (IDR tn)
2016 508 8.2 1,238 17.3 5,003 10
2017 587 15.4 1,391 12.4 5,418 8.3
2018 625 6.6 1,457 4.8 5,760 6.3
2019 655 4.7 1,565 7.4 6,137 6.5
2020 760 16.1 1,856 18.5 6,900 12.4
2021 831 9.4 2,282 23.0 7,867 13.9
2022 898 8.0 2,609 14.3 8,526 8.3
Jul-22 822 8.3 2,296 18.8 7,846 9.6
Aug-22 806 7.3 2,279 17.6 7,894 9.5
Sept-22 808 7.9 2,321 17.9 7,963 9.1
Oct-22 809 5.5 2,539 22.6 8,222 9.8
Nov-22 841 8.4 2,468 16.7 8,297 9.6
Dec-22 898 8.0 2,609 14.3 8,526 8.3
Jan-23 830 8.5 2,422 12.7 8,272 8.4
Feb-22 814 2.2 2,422 10.3 8,300 7.9

INDONESIA BANKING SECTOR
92

ASEAN Banking Performance Ratio
Indonesia has good banking quality compared to countries in the Asean region.
*LAR: Liquid Assets Ratio, Source: CEIC
Thailand
Loan: -3.79%
Deposit:-4.23%
CAR: 19.39%
LAR: 15.20%
LDR:117.87%
Malaysia
Loan:-2.70%
Deposit:0.66%
CAR:18.56%
LAR:33.13
LDR:81.59
Indonesia
Loan: 10.64%
Deposit: 8.18%
CAR: 26.1
LAR:15.42
LDR:79.81
Philippines
Loan:3.57%
Deposit:1.23%
CAR:16.23%
LAR:40.70
LDR:68.40
Brunei Darussalam
Loan:6.02%
Deposit:8.39%
CAR:20.24%
LAR:33.67%
LDR:36.20%
Singapore
Loan:-3.16%
Deposit:6.69%
CAR:16.42%
LAR:40.27
LDR:71.60
Data as of Feb 2023,yoy basis for loan and deposit
* Data as of Dec-22
* Data as of Dec-22

Loan Growth, Deposit Growth, and Liquidity
Loan growth accelerated in February 2023, and liquidity remained loose.
Source: OJK
Loan and Deposit Growth (% yoy) Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)
10.64%
8.18%
-5%
-2%
1%
4%
7%
10%
13%
16%
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
Loan growth (YoY %) Deposit growth (YoY %)
93.1 93.3
82.8
78.1 79.81
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23

Banks’ Placement at BI Instruments
Banks’ placement at BI’s Open Market Operation instruments decreased in Mar-23 mom
Source : Bank Indonesia, as of 31-Mar-23
-250
-50
150
350
550
750
950
20-Dec-2017
22-Jan-2018
21-Feb-2018
22-Mar-2018
23-Apr-2018
24-May-2018
4-Jul-2018
2-Aug-2018
31-Aug-2018
30-Sep-2018
29-Oct-2018
28-Nov-2018
31-Dec-2018
30-Jan-2019
1-Mar-2019
2-Apr-2019
7-May-2019
13-Jun-2019
12-Jul-2019
12-Aug-2019
10-Sep-2019
9-Oct-2019
7-Nov-2019
6-Dec-2019
9-Jan-2020
3-Feb-2020
3-Mar-2020
2-Apr-2020
28-Apr-2020
4-May-2020
5-Jun-2020
6-Jul-2020
5-Aug-2020
8-Sep-2020
6-Oct-2020
5-Nov-2020
2-Dec-2020
7-Jan-2021
5-Feb-2021
9-Mar-2021
9-Apr-2021
10-May-2021
15-Jun-2021
14-Jul-2021
16-Aug-2021
17-Sep-2021
18-Oct-2021
16-Nov-2021
15-Dec-2021
17-Jan-2022
16-Feb-2022
18-Mar-2022
19-Apr-2022
30-May-2022
29-Jun-2022
28-Jul-2022
29-Aug-2022
26-Sep-2022
25-Oct-2022
23-Nov-2022
22-Dec-2022
20-Jan-2023
20-Feb-2023
21-Mar-2023
Deposit Facility LF/Term Repo Term Deposit Swap BI
Reverse Repo SBN SBI 9M+SDBI Outstanding liquidity Banking Liquidity
31-Mar-2023
Placement at BI instruments (IDR tn)
IDR630.7
IDR477.0

Lending Rate by Sector
Lending rates for some sectors have started to increase
Source : OJK, as of Jan 2023
8.96
9.66
8.58
7.12
7.94
10.14
8.69
7.06
8.28
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Agricultures, hunting and forestry Fisheries
Mining and Quarrying Procesing industry
Electricity, gas and water Construction
Big and retail trade Provision of accomodation and food supply drinking
Transportation, warehousing and communications Transitional Finance
Real estate, Rental Business, and services company
7.57
7.74
8.80
11.73
14.10
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
For House Ownership For Apartement Ownership
For Shop House Ownership For Vehicles Ownership
Others Non Industrial Origin Others
Lending rates for consumer segments (%)
Lending rates by industrial origin (%)

Third Party Fund by Currency
FX deposit growth increased 8.13% yoy in Feb-23
97
Period Total
DOC Time Deposit Demand Deposit Time Deposit Certificate Saving Account Total TPF
IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex
2020 6,644.09 53.24 9.43 2,425.33 307.97 1,261.73 415.62 0.00 - 2,014.79 155.97 5,755.10 888.99
2021 7,460.64 52.78 8.56 2,534.48 303.57 1,590.42 541.29 0.24 - 2,263.87 165.42 6,441.80
1,018.85
2022 8,129.15
52.01 5.80 2,584.65 339.14 1,837.90 694.65 2.81 0.17 2,422.75 189.27 6,900.13 1,229.03
Feb-23 7,964.18 35.20 4.94 2,611.80 354.13 1,717.97 707.78 2.97 0.17 2,340.84 188.37 6,708.78 1,255.40
Period Total
DOC Time Deposit Demand Deposit Time Deposit Certificate Saving Account Total TPF
IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex IDR Forex
2020 11.07 16.10 -7.50 10.17 -4.89 14.81 16.00 -99.54 - 11.09 20.88 11.52 8.24
2021 12.29 -0.86 -9.26 4.50 -1.43 26.05 30.24 7814.74 - 12.36 6.06 11.93 14.61
2022 8.96 -1.47 -32.30 1.98 11.72 15.56 28.33 1092.66 - 7.02 14.41 7.11 20.63
Feb-23 8.13 -4.66 18.96 2.86 20.77 9.95 35.36 35.56 - 5.08 6.45 5.34 25.89
Source: LPS
Change % yoy
IDR tn

Restructured Loan Decreased in Feb-23
In line with the economic recovery and improving credit quality
Source: OJK, BMRI
Loan at Risk Restructured Loan
864.3
13.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
LAR % of Total Loan
Jan-23
427.7
6.71
1.93
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Restructured loans COVID-19 - IDR tn lhs % to total loan-rhs
Debtors- mn people rhs

Asset Growth of Commercial Banks
Bank assets grow at a slower pace in January 2023
Source: OJK
Size of Banking Industry Jan-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 % yoy
Total Asset (IDR tn) 10,007 11,113 10,932 9.2
Deposits (IDR tn) 7,363 8,154 7,954 8.0
- Demand Deposits 2,069 2,546 2,418 16.9
- Savings Accounts 2,405 2,615 2,540 5.6
- Time Deposit 2,889 2,992 2,996 3.7
Loans (IDR tn) 5,709 6,424 6,311 10.5
Banking Ratios Jan-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 ppt change
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 26.0 25.6 25.9 -0.1
NPL Gross (%) 3.1 2.4 2.6 -0.5
Return on Assets (%) 2.6 2.5 3.1 0.5
Net Interest Margin (%) 4.7 4.8 5.0 0.3
Ops, Expense/Ops, Income (%) 80.9 78.7 86.2 5.3
Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) 78.0 79.0 79.5 1.5
Number of Banks 107 106 106
99

Loan Growth of Banking Sector
Loan and deposit growth accelerate increased in Feb-23
Source: Bank Indonesia
Year/Month Deposit (IDR tn) % yoy % mom Loan (IDR tn) % yoy % mom
2015 4,413 7.3 4,058 10.4
2016 4,837 9.6 4,377 7.9
2017 5,289 9.4 4,738 8.2
2018 5,630 6.5 5,295 11.8
2019 5,999 6.5 0.9 5,617 6.1 1.7
2020 6,665 11.1 0.5 5,482 -2.4 0.6
2021 7,478 12.2 2.0 5,767 5.2 1.0
2022 6,423 9.01 1.3 6,423 11.4 1.9
Jan-23 7,954 8.03 -2,5 6,310 10.5 -1.8
Feb-23 7,988 8.18 0.4 6,376 10.6 1.0
100

Loan Growth by Currencies
Both IDR and FX loan growth slowed down in Jan-23
Source: OJK
Year/Month
IDR Loans
(IDR tn)
% yoy % mom
Forex Loans
(IDR tn)
% yoy % mom
2012 2,281 24.0 427 18.2
2013 2,721 19.3 572 34.1
2014 3,058 12.4 616 7.7
2015 3,423 11.9 635 3.0
2016 3,737 9.2 641 0.9
2017 4,045 8.2 693 8.2
2018 4,494 11.1 800 15.5
2019 4,831 7.5 1.7 786 -1.8 1.8
2020 4,724 -2.2 0.7 758 -3.6 0.1
2021 4,956 4.9 1.3 813 7.3 0.0
2022 5,475 10.5 1.6 948 16.6 -1.1
Jan-23 5,415 10.6 -1.1 896 10.0 -5.6
101

Consumption Loans
Both vehicle loan and mortgage loan growth slowed down in Jan-23
Source: OJK
Year/Month
Vehicles
Ownership
Loan (IDR tn)
% yoy % mom % Share*
Mortgage Loan
(IDR tn)
2012 99 -6.7 211 15.8
2013 104 5.9 269 27.1
2014 123 17.9 303 12.7
2015 121 -2.1 326 7.7
2016 118 -2.0 354 8.4
2017 125 5.4 393 11.1
2018 140 12.8 445 13.3
2019 140 0.0 -0.1 2.5 480 7.8 0.9 8.5
2020 106 -24.7 -2.1 1.9 497 3.5 0.7 9.1
2021 99 -6.3 0.8 1.7 544 9.5 1.0 9.4
2022 116 17.0 1.3 1.8 587 7.8 0.9 9.1
Jan-23 117 14.9 1.2 1.9 587 7.7 0.2 9.3
*) Share to total loan
102

Investment and Working Capital Loan
Investment loan accelerated in Jan-23
Source: OJK
Year/Month
Investment
Loan (IDR tn)
Working Capital
Loan (IDR tn)
2012 591 27.4 1,317 23.2
2013 798 35.0 1,586 20.4
2014 903 13.2 1,757 10.8
2015 1,036 14.7 1,916 9.0
2016 1,125 8.6 2,049 6.9
2017 1,180 4.8 1.8 24.9 2,223 8.5 3.9 46.9
2018 1,309 10.9 2.8 24.7 2,512 13.0 3.3 47.5
2019 1,481 13.2 2.3 26.4 2,576 2.5 1.7 45.9
2020 1,469 -0.8 0.9 26.8 2,465 -4.3 0.6 45.0
2021 1,528 4.0 0.6 26.5 2,621 6.3 1.5 45.4
2022 1,711 12.0 -0.5 26.6 2,940 12.2 2.2 45.8
Jan-23 1,713 12.6 0.1 27.1 2,828 10.0 -3.8 44.8
*) Share to total loan
103

Third party fund growth by types
Demand deposit and saving account's growth slowed down, while time deposit started to grow in Jan-23
Source: OJK
Year/Month
Demand
Deposit
(IDR tn)
% yoy % mom
Saving
Deposit
(IDR tn)
% yoy % mom
Time
Deposit
(IDR tn)
% yoy % mom
2012 767 17.5 1,077 19.9 1,381 11.9
2013 847 10.4 1,213 12.6 1,604 16.2
2014 890 5.1 1,284 5.9 1,940 20.9
2015 892 9.6 1,396 8.7 2,030 4.6
2016 1,124 13.8 1,552 11.2 2,161 6.5 0.4
2017 1,223 9.7 1.0 1,701 9.6 5.5 2,355 9.0 -0.5
2018 1,315 6.6 -3.8 1,825 7.3 4.9 2,490 5.8 0.9
2019 1,466 11.5 0.5 1,945 6.6 4.2 2,588 3.9 -1.3
2020 1,687 15.1 -2.5 2,174 11.7 3.6 2,805 8.4 -0.1
2021 2,144 27.1 3.2 2,432 11.9 3.3 2,904 3.5 0.4
2022 2,546 18.8 3.8 2,615 7.5 2.8 2,992 3.0 0.6
Jan-23 2,418 16.9 -5.0 2,540 5.6 -2.9 2,996 3.7 0.1
104

Proportion of FX Loan to Total Loan
Proportion of foreign currency loans to total loans relatively sloping down from oct 2022
Source: OJK
2,200
2,707
3,292
3,673
4,058
4,377
4,738
5,295
5,617
5,482
5,769
5,709
5,762
5,863
5,981
6,012
6,177
6,159
6,179
6,275
6,334
6,347
6,424
6,311
16.4
15.7
17.4
16.8
15.6
14.6 14.6
15.1
14.0 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.2 14.4
14.9 14.8 15.1 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.1 14.8
14.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Total IDR (LHS Tn) Forex Proportion (RHS %)
IDR
tn
%
105

Proportion of FX Deposit to Total Deposit
Proportion of FX deposit to total deposit was up in Jan-23
Source: OJK
2,785
3,225
3,664
4,114
4,413
4,837
5,289
5,630
5,999
6,665
7,479
7,363
7,384
7,482
7,486
7,516
7,602
7,564
7,608
7,647
7,927
7,974
8,154
7,954
13.9
14.5
17.4
16.5 16.9
15.4
14.1 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.8
14.3
13.5 13.5 13.8 13.7
14.6 14.7 14.7
15.4 15.3 15.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Total Deposit (LHS Tn) Forex Proportion (RHS %)
LHS,
IDR
tn
RHS,
%
106

Percentage of Undisbursed Loan
Proportion of undisbursed loans to total loans began to decline in Jan-23
Source: OJK
Year/Month Undisbursed Loan (IDR tn) % Total Loan Total Credit (IDR tn)
2012 817 30.2 2,708
2013 1,013 30.8 3,293
2014 1,138 31,0 3,674
2015 1,220 30.1 4,058
2016 1,304 29.8 4,377
2017 1,408 29.7 4,738
2018 1,545 29.2 5,295
2019 1,603 28.5 5,617
2020 1,643 30.0 5,482
2021 1,705 29.6 5,769
2022 2,143 33.4 6,424
Jan-23 1,924 30.5 6,311
107

Monthly Macroeconomic Booklet April 2023 - Banking Turmoil Clouds.pdf

Monthly Macroeconomic Booklet April 2023 - Banking Turmoil Clouds.pdf

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