Mobile Broadband World

Shared neutral host networks
Is now the right time?




Alastair Davidson
Director of Strategy and Business Development

23 September 2009
Cellular Traffic Demand

Operators always find it difficult to prepare for demand tomorrow by rolling out capacity today; under
or overestimating demand has serious implications on operator’s bottom line


    TeraBytes/ Hour

            190 TB



            150 TB



            110 TB



             70 TB



             30 TB
                     2009       2012         2015        2108                2021                 2024




                                                                Source : Ofcom Predicting Areas of Spectrum Shortage 2009



                                                                                                 Mobile Broadband World
                                                                                                  23 – 24 September 2009
Growth of UK mobile Internet users
Operators always find it difficult to prepare for demand tomorrow by rolling out capacity today; under
or overestimating demand has serious implications on operator’s bottom line


                                              10



                                                                                  8.1                   8.1
                                              8                          7.5
                Unique Audiences (millions)




                                                               6
                                              6      5.7




                                              4




                                              2




                                              0
                                                   Q1 2008   Q2 2008   Q3 2008   Q4 2008             Q1 2009



                                                                                        Source : Ofcom Communication Market Report 2009



                                                                                                               Mobile Broadband World
                                                                                                                23 – 24 September 2009
MNO Business Implications

Operators will see shrinking margins on Mobile Broadband. They will have to deliver the data at as low
a cost as possible, but without compromising the quality of the service

                                                                Mobile revenue in developed regions

                                                           Source : Analysys Mason 2009   2008             2015
                                                         Revenue per megabyte             £0.54      £0.08 to £0.02


                                                                         MNO Business Challenges

                                                      • Competition for customers – pushing MBB prices down
                                                      • Value added services (laptops etc) - not differentiators
                                                      • Market is moving to flat rate pricing model that will
                                                      reduce operators profits further as usage increases
                                                      • Digital Britain’s requirement to deliver Rural Broadband
                RNC/BSC                               will aggravate MNO’s business troubles
                                      Shared RAN


                                                             Key Advantages of Network Outsourcing

                                                      • Predictable cost to MNOs
                                      Separate Core
            Core          Core                        • SLAs/ QoS gets priority
            MNO1          MNO2
                                                      • MNOs need not worry about Network/Technology
                                                      • MNOs can focus on customer acquisition
                                                                                           Mobile Broadband World
                                                                                            23 – 24 September 2009
Cost of delivery




Cost of sales         40%




                              28%                    Site Rental


Sales and Marketing   38%     12%                     Transmission


                              29%                     Hardware and
                                                      software
Business Operations   10%
                              22%                    Core network
Network Operations    12%     10%
                                                     Power &
                                                     maintenance




                            Source: Deloitte Consulting Analysis and Arqiva Internal Analysis




                                                          Mobile Broadband World
                                                           23 – 24 September 2009
Digital Britain: Broadband for all



•   Initiative to ensure that Britain is at the forefront of the digital
    revolution and that the UK economy benefits by broadband for all
     – Assesses Britain’s preparedness to
       exploit digital technology
     – Tackles content, infrastructure and
       legislation and recommends
       large-scale investment
     – Proposes minimum 2Mb/s connection
       to every home in the country




                                                           Mobile Broadband World
                                                            23 – 24 September 2009
Digital Britain on spectrum refarming and auction

Digital Britain report focused on the release and auction of 2.6
GHz and 800MHz spectrums


                               Immediate release                       Big Auction ASAP


 2600 MHz unpaired       2570-2620 TDD


                          2500-2570 FDD (Uplink)             2620-2690 FDD (downlink)
 2600 MHz paired

 800 MHz                         790-862

                     0    20          40           60   80   100         120            140              160




                                                                               Mobile Broadband World
                                                                                23 – 24 September 2009
Spectrum distribution

 EU’s Radio Spectrum Committee has proposed the liberalization of 900 MHz
 and 1800 MHz spectrum for 3G:

                              Vodafone        O2           T-Mobile        Orange      H3G



2100 MHz unpaired   5 5 5 5.1

                                                                                                             Spectrum in
2100 MHz paired             29.6         20             20            20        29.2                          Question




1800 MHz paired         10.6 10.6                  60                                  60



  900 MHz paired              34.8                  34.8


                    0          20        40              60           80        100         120       140           160




                                                                                                  Mobile Broadband World
                                                                                                   23 – 24 September 2009
Pembrokeshire: making the case for a shared network




•   Coverage for those beyond the reach of exchanges could be provided by just 12 sites
•   Could deliver connectivity in excess of 3.5Mbps




                                                                              Mobile Broadband World
                                                                               23 – 24 September 2009
Is now the right time?




•   Trend for network sharing already underway
•   An aspiration to provide universal broadband
•   Will require hybrid solution – fixed and wireless
•   Shared networks provide the most cost effective and rapid way
    of delivering rural broadband connectivity




                                                        Mobile Broadband World
                                                         23 – 24 September 2009
alastair.davidson@arqiva.com




                               Mobile Broadband World
                                23 – 24 September 2009

Mobile Broadband World (Neutral Host Networks) Al Davidson

  • 1.
    Mobile Broadband World Sharedneutral host networks Is now the right time? Alastair Davidson Director of Strategy and Business Development 23 September 2009
  • 2.
    Cellular Traffic Demand Operatorsalways find it difficult to prepare for demand tomorrow by rolling out capacity today; under or overestimating demand has serious implications on operator’s bottom line TeraBytes/ Hour 190 TB 150 TB 110 TB 70 TB 30 TB 2009 2012 2015 2108 2021 2024 Source : Ofcom Predicting Areas of Spectrum Shortage 2009 Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 3.
    Growth of UKmobile Internet users Operators always find it difficult to prepare for demand tomorrow by rolling out capacity today; under or overestimating demand has serious implications on operator’s bottom line 10 8.1 8.1 8 7.5 Unique Audiences (millions) 6 6 5.7 4 2 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Source : Ofcom Communication Market Report 2009 Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 4.
    MNO Business Implications Operatorswill see shrinking margins on Mobile Broadband. They will have to deliver the data at as low a cost as possible, but without compromising the quality of the service Mobile revenue in developed regions Source : Analysys Mason 2009 2008 2015 Revenue per megabyte £0.54 £0.08 to £0.02 MNO Business Challenges • Competition for customers – pushing MBB prices down • Value added services (laptops etc) - not differentiators • Market is moving to flat rate pricing model that will reduce operators profits further as usage increases • Digital Britain’s requirement to deliver Rural Broadband RNC/BSC will aggravate MNO’s business troubles Shared RAN Key Advantages of Network Outsourcing • Predictable cost to MNOs Separate Core Core Core • SLAs/ QoS gets priority MNO1 MNO2 • MNOs need not worry about Network/Technology • MNOs can focus on customer acquisition Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 5.
    Cost of delivery Costof sales 40% 28% Site Rental Sales and Marketing 38% 12% Transmission 29% Hardware and software Business Operations 10% 22% Core network Network Operations 12% 10% Power & maintenance Source: Deloitte Consulting Analysis and Arqiva Internal Analysis Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 6.
    Digital Britain: Broadbandfor all • Initiative to ensure that Britain is at the forefront of the digital revolution and that the UK economy benefits by broadband for all – Assesses Britain’s preparedness to exploit digital technology – Tackles content, infrastructure and legislation and recommends large-scale investment – Proposes minimum 2Mb/s connection to every home in the country Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 7.
    Digital Britain onspectrum refarming and auction Digital Britain report focused on the release and auction of 2.6 GHz and 800MHz spectrums Immediate release Big Auction ASAP 2600 MHz unpaired 2570-2620 TDD 2500-2570 FDD (Uplink) 2620-2690 FDD (downlink) 2600 MHz paired 800 MHz 790-862 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 8.
    Spectrum distribution EU’sRadio Spectrum Committee has proposed the liberalization of 900 MHz and 1800 MHz spectrum for 3G: Vodafone O2 T-Mobile Orange H3G 2100 MHz unpaired 5 5 5 5.1 Spectrum in 2100 MHz paired 29.6 20 20 20 29.2 Question 1800 MHz paired 10.6 10.6 60 60 900 MHz paired 34.8 34.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 9.
    Pembrokeshire: making thecase for a shared network • Coverage for those beyond the reach of exchanges could be provided by just 12 sites • Could deliver connectivity in excess of 3.5Mbps Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 10.
    Is now theright time? • Trend for network sharing already underway • An aspiration to provide universal broadband • Will require hybrid solution – fixed and wireless • Shared networks provide the most cost effective and rapid way of delivering rural broadband connectivity Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009
  • 11.
    alastair.davidson@arqiva.com Mobile Broadband World 23 – 24 September 2009