People are generally poor at judging risks and tend to misperceive dangers. They often overestimate dramatic risks like murder but underestimate more mundane risks like accidental electrocution. Without consciously correcting for biases, people have a distorted view of relative dangers. Some factors that warp risk perception include dread of rare events and lack of understanding of actual statistics. The real dangers are often more mundane than people realize. Relying on actual statistics and focusing on reducing mundane risks through methods like the safety triangle model is a more reliable way to ensure personal safety.

1. (Mis) Perceptions
of Danger

2. People aren’t innately good at judging risk.
The human brain isn’t intuitively good at evaluating the
dangers of modern society and work.
It’s still hardwired for ‘fight or flight’ based on ‘gut
reactions’ which don’t link to reasoned thought.
Proper consideration of risk nowadays has to be a
learned behaviour.

3. Common Misperceptions of Lethal Risk
People tend to overestimate the probability of ‘dramatic’ deaths, e.g.
by murder - it’s about 1/10th as likely as people estimate.
People tend to underestimate more ‘mundane’ deaths, e.g. by
accidental electrocution - it’s 10x as likely as people estimate.

4. Without conscious effort to correct biases,
people have a distorted view of relative dangers.

5. Some factors that warp people’s judgment of risk
(‘dread factors’)

6. Note that
people
fear the
dangers of
falling
satellites as
higher than
that posed by
bicycles and
chainsaws.
No prizes for
guessing
which actually cause
more harm!

7. So the REAL dangers are more mundane than
people realise.
A more reliable way to judge risk is on actual
statistics….

8. The Safety Triangle
For example, for every 10
minor injuries, we can
expect 1 major injury.
By working towards
eliminating unsafe acts,
we reduce the amount of
near misses, which
reduces the amount of
minor injuries, etc…

9. Personal safety is best ensured by reducing the
mundane risks.

10. References:
Slovic, P., 1987, Perception of risk. Science, 236:280-285.
Safety triangle courtesy of:
http://behaviorfocusedsafety.com/