Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | May 2, 2016
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Year-to-date office building sales in the Minneapolis CBD have all included historic, value-add Class B buildings. Looking forward, the office sales market is bullish, particularly for Class A Trophy assets. The Minneapolis CBD has millions of square feet up for sale, as IDS, Plaza 7, and Campbell Mithun are all on the market and highly attractive to institutional investors. Some of this attention is also being diverted to Class A suburban buildings, particularly in the desirable West submarket. The bulk of current interest is coming from outside investors, typically coastal US-based firms that are backed with international equity. Minneapolis-St. Paul is known for its stabilized cap rates, consistently increasing rental rates, and solid economic performance—real value compared to more saturated domestic markets.
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｢INFOGRAPHIC｣ The Great 21st Century North American War: Unicorns vs Narwhals
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According to preliminary Q4 2016 numbers from RCA, total foreign investment into U.S. commercial real estate declined since its peak in 2015. However, as coastal markets are seeing their cross-border deal flow tighten, Midwest markets like Minneapolis-St. Paul are benefiting from more affordable inventory and less volatile economic growth.
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For nearly a century, bars within the City of Minneapolis were restricted to Liquor Patrol Limits encompassing the oldest neighborhoods adjacent to the Mississippi River and those most populated by immigrants. Even after the end of Prohibition in 1934, Minneapolis reinstated its patrol limits which were not repealed until 1974. Bars that were within the city but outside of the patrol areas could serve only low-alcohol or 3.2 percent beer.
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•Coupled with the impending repeal of the 159-year-old Sunday liquor sales ban, the future earning potential for Minneapolis’ hospitality and retail sectors looks rosy.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Employment Update | February13, 2016
Minneapolis-St. Paul unemployment gained 60 basis points and fell four spots nationally into an eight place tie with the Indianapolis metro. New workforce highs were achieved in Professional and Business Services and Other Services while Education and Health services saw a slight pullback from its recent run in growth. Y-O-Y Education and Health Services maintained the top spot creating 13,000 jobs over the trailing 12 month period. In contrast, the Leisure and Hospitality sector lost 5,300 jobs in 2016.
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Nationwide, unemployment rose for the second consecutive month and now sits at 4.8 percent, boosted by an increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.9 percent. However, the expansion of the civilian labor force is not keeping up with job growth, which will keep slack minimal in the near-term.
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Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | February 10, 2017
The Macy’s building is among many other buildings in the Minneapolis CBD that are currently undergoing decisions about future usage. Wells Fargo’s move out of Northstar and Baker Block in 2016 has already prompted the consideration of renovation versus conversion into other uses.
Baker Block and the TCF Bank Building are undergoing remodels that will increase tenant amenities and add features more typical of creative office like open floorplates and raised ceilings.
Additional opportunities will hit the market when YMCA relocates its facilities and office operations to Gaviidae and when Art Institutes International closes its downtown campus in the LaSalle Building.
Minneapolis Chart of the week January 12th, 2017
Over the last year and into 2017 three retailers each occupying 20,000 square feet or more have announced their departure from the downtown CBD, adding to vacancy totals.
The recent acquisition, and plan to redevelop former Macy’s building eludes to a market consensus where the excess space will be best suited as diversified mixed uses.
Minneapolis-St. Paul JLL employment update January 2017
Minneapolis-St. Paul maintains it’s fourth-lowest unemployment rate in the nation among all large metros, according to the most recent BLS estimates.
New workforce highs were achieved in Education and Health Services and Government while professional and Business services have seen a slight pullback from its recent run in growth. Y-O-Y Education and Health Services claims the top spot creating 9,700 jobs over the trailing 12 month period.
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Nationwide, unemployment dropped by 30bp over the year to 4.7 percent. Declines in unemployment came as a result of a steadily increasing workforce, marginally boosting participation, and job growth outperforming the rate of expansion in the workforce.
Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, reaching highest rate of increase this cycle.
Minneapolis-St. Paul employment update | December 2016
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•Once again, MSP achieved record-breaking employment totals for professional and business services, a fundamental component to the metro’s economic growth. A net total of 8,800 jobs have been added in the industry year-over-year (Y-O-Y).
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•Nationwide, unemployment dropped by 30bp to a cyclical low of 4.6 percent. This is possible by consistent job growth and a slight decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.7 percent.
•With continued wage growth and inflation now at 1.6 percent, nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2.0-percent target and unemployment at its lowest point since August 2007, the stage has been set for a rate hike by the end of the year.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | December 12, 2016
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This fall, T3 was the first speculative office development to deliver in Minneapolis since the Recession. What will break ground next? United Properties, Schafer Richardson, Hines, Swervo and CPM Cos. all have proposed developments in the North Loop. It’s only a matter of time until one lands a cornerstone tenant and construction begins again.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | October 24, 2016
Office product in the CBD area northwest of Nicollet Mall has historically performed better than the southeastern part of the CBD, and that trend has only become more pronounced. Even with T3 delivering fully vacant this quarter, total vacancy on the northwest side of Nicollet is 0.9 million square feet (m.s.f.) with an average building vacancy rate of 12.3%. Comparatively, to the southeast of Nicollet Mall, total office vacancy is 2.9 m.s.f. and the average building vacancy rate is 16.9%.
Minneapolis–St. Paul Employment Update | October 2016
Minneapolis-St. Paul has the fifth-lowest unemployment rate in the nation among all large metros, according to the most recent BLS estimates.
Once again, MSP achieved record-breaking employment totals for professional and business services, a fundamental component to the metro’s economic growth. A net total of 8,300 jobs have been added in the industry year-over-year (Y-O-Y).
While office-using sectors were responsible for 31% of growth this month, educational and health services continue to drive regional employment gains and currently account for 39% of Y-O-Y job growth.
Nationwide, unemployment rose by 10bp to 5.0% in September on the back of rising labor force participation, which also saw a bump to 62.9%. At the same time, initial unemployment claims continue to fall, with the moving average resting near a cyclical low of 250,000 per week.
U.S. job openings have jumped by 3.9% over the year even as employment is only up 1.7%. This signals strong demand by employers but lagging labor force growth that is failing to keep up with demand.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | October 17, 2016
Hotel development is finally on track to meet demand in the Minneapolis CBD. It is expected that more than 2,000 rooms will be delivered in the next few years. AC Marriott and Embassy Suites opened within the last month along Hennepin Ave; Radisson Red was recently completed near the US Bank Stadium. The Nordic-themed 124-room Hewing Hotel in the North Loop is slated to open in November.
Thresher Square and Federal Plaza were both formerly used for office. After recent acquisitions, the historic buildings will be respectively redeveloped into a Canopy by Hilton and a new boutique inn.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | October 10, 2016
Los Angeles-based Colony Capital REIT spent $62.5 million for four bulk warehouse properties totaling just over 899,000 square feet and averaging $69.57 per square foot (p.s.f.). TA Realty of Boston was the seller. The trade, which occurred in early July, greatly boosted local industrial sales for Q3 to a total of $206.2 million and made it the highest performing quarter year-to-date.
The four transacted properties included Xenium Distribution Center in Plymouth, Highway 55 Distribution Center in Eagan, Minnesota Valley Distribution Center II in Shakopee, and 6240 Carmen in Inver Grove Heights.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | October 3, 2016
Currently, just over 12,000 people living in the Minneapolis CBD are 20-34 years old and make up the largest share of the total population of 29,200. In the next five years, the share of Millennials living downtown is expected to grow to 45% of the total population. Within the same timeframe, the average household income among downtown dwellers is expected to jump from $85,000 to $95,000. The Minneapolis CBD includes the North Loop neighborhood, which Forbes recently ranked among its Top Ten “Best Cities and Neighborhoods” for Millennials.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | September 19, 2016
Although the third quarter of 2016 only saw four transactions for office buildings at least 50,000 square feet in size, the average price per square foot increased 82 percent quarter-over-quarter. This is largely due to the sale of Ameriprise Financial Center, which sold for $200 million to Florida-based Morning Calm Management at the end of August. The transaction is the largest deal of the year, surpassing the $82 million sale of PwC Plaza (formerly known as Plaza Seven) back in June.
Expect more transaction volume in Q4, as there are already four pending sales totaling $37.7 million.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Chart of the Week | September 12, 2016
From 2010 to 2015, Minneapolis-St. Paul added 169,043 net new people to its population total, a growth rate of 5.0 percent. The average growth rate for all U.S. metros during that same period was 4.6 percent. MSP’s gains are largely due to a healthy ratio of births to deaths and an increase in foreign immigration.
In general, metro areas in the Midwest and Northeast are seeing slower population growth than the rest of the nation, particularly compared to the South. Minneapolis-St. Paul’s Midwest peers like Chicago, St. Louis, and Detroit all saw single-digit growth over the last five years.
US Technology Outlook | Minneapolis | JLL | 2016
The Minneapolis-St. Paul metro has a unique mix of technological innovation across very diverse industries, including life sciences, retail, and food. Meanwhile, national VC firms have been branching outside of medical devices (MSP’s traditionally strongest tech cluster) when seeking investment opportunities, including local solar panel manufacturers and “Internet of Things” apps. As awareness of MSP’s highly-productive tech economy grows, new occupiers (particularly from more costly real estate markets) will continue to enter the market either via acquisitions or strategic expansion into the Midwest.
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Tile ho,
toh Simpolo.
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- 1. Minneapolis–St. Paul 2016: Expect to see an uptick in institutional investment in office buildings Chart of the week: April 25, 2016 Sources: JLL Research • Year-to-date office building sales in the Minneapolis CBD have all included historic, value-add Class B buildings. Looking forward, the office sales market is bullish, particularly for Class A Trophy assets. The Minneapolis CBD has millions of square feet up for sale, as IDS, Plaza 7, and Campbell Mithun are all on the market and highly attractive to institutional investors. Some of this attention is also being diverted to Class A suburban buildings, particularly in the desirable West submarket. • The bulk of current interest is coming from outside investors, typically coastal US-based firms that are backed with international equity. Minneapolis-St. Paul is known for its stabilized cap rates, consistently increasing rental rates, and solid economic performance—real value compared to more saturated domestic markets. $395.7 $7.5 $386.5 $12.8 $740.9 $265.3 $203.1 $41.3 $52.5 $6.8 2015 YTD 2016 Equity Fund Institutional Private Public User/Other Who are the buyers? Where are the buyers? Investing firms, 2015-2016Sales ($M) by investor type Density of firms investing in MSP office