Perspectiva económica mexicana

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Presentación del Candidato a Senador Ernesto Cordero con miembros de la embajada del Reino Unido presentada el 19 de junio de 2012.

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Perspectiva económica mexicana

  1. 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAND FUTURE AGENDA June 2012 ERNESTO CORDERO
  2. 2. Economic Growth Gross Domestic Product, Constant Growth Forecast 2012 Prices (Percent change of constant prices) (Percent Change) China 8.2 8 India 6.9 Peru 5.5 Colombia 4.7 6 Chile 4.3 Argentina 4.2 Russia 4.0 4 Mexico 3.6 Korea 3.5 Australia 3.0 2 Brazil 3.0 South Africa 2.7 New Zealand 2.3 0 Turkey 2.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 United States 2.1 -2 Canada 2.1 Japan 2.0 Average: Norway 1.8 3.1 -4 Austria 0.9 United Kingdom 0.8 France 0.5 -6 Belgium 0.01 0 2 4 6 8 10 -8 PercentSource: IMF 2
  3. 3. Job Creation Unemployment Rate, 2011 Workers registered at IMSS (%) (Millions) 16.0 25 20.7 15.5 20 15.0 15 14.5 14.0 10 9.1 7.6 7.3 7.2 6.7 13.5 6.0 4.5 5 13.0 0 12.5 O O O O O O O J J J J J J J 2005 J A 2006 J A 2007 J A 2008 J A 2009 J A 2010 J A 2011 J A 2012 J A Alemania EEUU Brasil Canadá Chile España México Argentina Original AdjustmentSource: IMF, estimates 3 Source: IMSS
  4. 4. Economic Stability Total Deficit, 2010 International Reserves (% of GDP) (billion dollars) 32. 14 150 145 12 140 135 10 130 125 8 120 115 6 110 105 4 100 95 2 90 85 0 80 75 Rumania Grecia Lituania México Hungría Bulgaria Promedio otros Perú España Promedio BBB Túnez 70 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 4Source: S&P (December 2010), SHCP México
  5. 5. Internal Market Ranking 2012 Doing Mexicos Real Gross Domestic Product Index Business vs Singapu r 1 US Industrial Production Index (Index 2007 = 100) 105 Chile 39 100 Perú 41 95 90 Colombi a 42 85 México 53 80 75 Uruguay 90 70 Argentin 65 GDP Index (MEX) a 113 Industrial Production Index (US) 60 2011 2006 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 Brasil 126 5Source: Doing Business Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April, 2012
  6. 6. Exports  Non-oil exports have increased since 1993.  Non-oil exports have recovered from the recent crisis and in 2011 registered 14.2% annual growth. Non-Oil Exports (monthly, adjusted, million dollars)30,000 México is the most competitive country25,000 in auto parts manufacturing (KPMG). One out of 7 cars circulating in the US is manufactured in México20,000 The Mexican aerospace industry15,000 occupies the first place in manufacturing investment in the world (Deloitte).10,000 México is the biggest producer of television sets (International Trade 5,000 Center) and the third biggest producer of smart phones (Global Trade Atlas). 0 Ene 07 Ene 93 Ene 94 Ene 95 Ene 97 Ene 98 Ene 99 Ene 00 Ene 01 Ene 02 Ene 03 Ene 04 Ene 05 Ene 06 Ene 08 Ene 09 Ene 10 Ene 96 Ene 11 Ene 12 6Source: INEGI
  7. 7. Exports (2) Total Goods Exports for Selected Manufactured Goods Exports for Selected Latin American Countries in 2010 Latin American Countries in 2010 (%) (%) 100%100% 3% 5% 5% 90% 2% 6%90% 30% 10% 26% 33%80% 80% 50% 52% 22% 19%70% 62% 70%60% 81% 60% 7%50% 50% 45% 4% 6% 55% 37%40% 60% 40% 24%30% 45% 30% 47%20% 36% 15% 20% 21% 21% 16% 25% 9%10% 8% 10% 5% 2% 3% 0% 1% 9% Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 0% Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Other Transactions Primary Products Manufactures Natural Resource-Based Low-Tech Medium-Tech High-Tech 7Source: Economic Commission for Latin America Source: Economic Commission for Latin America
  8. 8. Health Coverage Health Coverage (%) 100% 81% 67% 60% 57% 46% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012Source: Done by the Rafael Preciado Hernández Foundation with data from Secretaría de Salud. 8
  9. 9. Well-being Poverty Extreme Poverty (% of population less than 2 dlls) (%) 16 15 11.0 14 13 10.6 10.4 12 10.0 10 8 8 5 5 6 9.0 4 2 8.0 0 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: World Bank, World dataBank 9 Source: Coneval "Pobreza en México y en las Entidades Federativas 2008-2011", Slide106
  10. 10. Well-being GDP per Capita PPP 2012 (Dlls) Índice de Desarrollo Humano Human Development Index 2011 Chile, 0.80 Mexico 17,691 Russia 18,000 Brazil 16,000 15,178 0.70 China 14,000 12,181 12,000 0.60 India 10,000 9,143 8,000 0.50 6,000 3,944 4,000 0.40 2,000 0 0.30 India China Brasil México Rusia 1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, Abril 2012 Source:UNDP 10
  11. 11. Sustainability and Inclusive GrowthGlobal Deceleration US Exports Markets Diversification and Domestic Market Europe Banking Supervision, System of Payments, & Debt MktsStructural TransformationCompetitiveness Labour, Energy, Telecomm, Consumers …Political Reform Reelection, Legislative Reduction, Ratification, Second Round, ...Federalism Revenues, Health, Education, Security, Accountability, …Rule of Law Legal Certainty, Justice Procurement, Corruption, Enforcement, … 11
  12. 12. Sustainability and Inclusive Growth Poverty Productivity andInequality FinancialReduction Markets Education Infrastructure Innovation Tech SMEs Cash Broader Intensive Conditional Coverage Transport Capital Transfer R&D MarketsProgrammes Energy Improve Agencies Commercial Social Quality Telecomm and andSafety Net Development Funds Bank Structural Transformations More Revenues used Effectively, Efficiently and Transparently 12
  13. 13. ernestocordero.mx @ErnestoCordero /ernestocorderoarroyo

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