Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to Marketstatistics3q2013
Similar to Marketstatistics3q2013 (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Marketstatistics3q2013
- 1. Market Statistics Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty
- 2. Metro Area Counties Included The source of information used in these charts is FMLS data from these 8 Metro Counties CHEROKEE FORSYTH FULTON OTP EAST COBB GWINNETT WEST COBB DEKALB DOUGLAS FITP PAULDING DEKALB DEKALB FULTON OTP Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 2
- 3. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Monthly Sales trending higher An sustained upward trend began in 2011, after the slowdown following expiration of government purchase incentives, extending through 4Q 2013 Buyer Considerations Increasing sales have reduced the inventory of unsold houses causing the market to become more competitive for buyers, reducing the number of available alternative properties and reducing buyers’ psychological advantage in contract negotiations Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 3 3
- 4. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report The total number of Active listings declined compared to previous years, while the number of sales has increased slightly Since Jan, 2009 total Active listings have dropped by -62.8% in December, 2013 while sales have increased by +58.1% This year has seen the first increase in listings in the last 3 years (+10.0% in Dec.) Buyer Considerations When fewer Active listings are available from which buyers can choose, competition for those fewer listings increases, reducing negotiating leverage for buyers When sales stay relatively constant while the inventory of active listings declines, competition for the declining inventory increases changing the psychology of the market from a “Buyer’s market” to “Seller’s market” Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 4
- 5. 4Q 2013 Area Comparison Report Months of Supply December, 2013: County Groupings 114 111 <3.0 Months 224 223 3.0 - 3.4 222 113 112 3.5 - 3.9 221 13 4.0 - 4.9 62 75 81 14 5.0 - 5.9 82 63 74 6.0+ 61 121 83 191 131 66 64 73 132 51 Metro Area Total: 3.7 months 72 41 21 71 65 22 Areas With 30%+ Distressed Sales: 52 23 24 91 31 32 42 53 33 Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty Cherokee County: 111 113 112 114 E. Cobb: 81 82 83 W. Cobb: 71 73 75 72 74 DeKalb: 24 42 52 41 51 53 121 Douglas: 91 Forsyth: 221 222 223 224 Fulton OTP: 13 14 33 131 Fulton ITP: 31 21 132 32 22 23 Gwinnett: 61 62 63 64 65 66 Paulding: 191 FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2013 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.
- 6. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Short Sales and Foreclosure Sales add together to make up Distressed Sales, shown here as a percent of total sales The percentage of 4Q 2013 distressed sale transactions was -18.9 percentage points lower than in 4Q 2012, while slightly higher +.8 points from last quarter Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 6 6
- 7. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Distressed/Non-Distressed Supply (listings) vs. Demand (sales) Supply of non-distressed properties in price ranges above $500K is in the “Balanced” or “Buyer’s Market” range above 6 months of supply Supply in all price ranges except one is in the “Seller’s Market” condition below 6 months of supply for Distressed properties Buyer Considerations Distressed properties have been in demand in all price ranges, increasing buyer competition for these houses, requiring faster action and better offers by buyers Although now lower than previously, higher inventory for non-distressed properties compared to distressed properties leads to more competition between sellers in order to stand out from their competition, possibly resulting in more high-value property listings Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 7
- 8. 4Q 2013 Area Comparison Report 4Q ONLY County Groupings 111 11 4 22 3 22 2 11 3 11 2 22 4 22 1 62 13 75 81 14 63 82 74 83 73 19 1 71 13 1 13 2 21 12 1 61 66 64 41 51 65 72 22 23 52 24 32 91 31 42 53 33 Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty Cherokee County: 111 113 112 114 E. Cobb: 81 82 83 W. Cobb: 71 73 75 72 74 DeKalb: 24 42 52 41 51 53 121 Douglas: 91 Forsyth: 221 222 223 224 Fulton OTP: 13 14 33 131 Fulton ITP: 31 21 132 32 22 23 Gwinnett: 61 62 63 64 65 66 Paulding: 191 FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2013 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.
- 9. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Previous Listing Periods Included 4Q 2013 Only List Price Reductions decreased Low overall supply has reduced the necessity for price reductions to 40.9% of sales during 4Q 2013 The reduction was also spread throughout these price ranges Buyer Consideration Price-reduced properties can present an opportunity for lower-priced offer acceptance That opportunity was greatest in properties priced below $100K where supply has reached the lowest level Price reductions are usually more common in higher price ranges, but fell considerably during this period in all price ranges compared to last year Fewer price reductions occurred due to reduced inventory and increased competition among buyers for a smaller number of available properties, making sellers’ acceptance of low-price offers less common Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 9
- 10. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Previous Listing Periods Included 4Q 2013 Only S/L ratios drop for PriceReduced properties After a listing price reduction, sellers in all price ranges received a much lower percentage of their original asking price than sellers not required to take a price reduction, dropping by 9.2 percentage points overall Buyer Consideration Price-reduced properties can be a signal of an opportunity for lowerpriced offer acceptance During 4Q 2013 the median S/L ratio for pricereduced properties was 9.2 percentage points lower and ranged from a decrease of -6.6% to 24.3% of the original listing price compared to a seller not required to reduce their listing price, depending upon price range Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 10
- 11. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Previous Listing Periods Included 4Q 2013 Only The Real Story What is the REAL STORY? Many times listed properties will have expired or been withdrawn one or more times prior to the listing period in which they sold. Including the original listing prices and cumulative days on market from those previous listing periods, results in a more realistic set of measurements. Total Closed Listings (100%) 95.2 S/L* 51 DOM* Price Reduced No Price Reduction (40.9% of Total) (59.1% of Total) 89.2% S/L* 117 DOM* 98.4% S/L* 21 DOM* Previously Listed (15.8% of Total) 85.9% S/L* 258 DOM* Wrong Price/Wrong Agent * Medians: Half are above and half are below Not Previously Listed Previously Listed Not Previously Listed (25.1% of Total) (4.7% of Total) (54.4%Of Total) 90.6% S/L* 74 DOM* 97.5% S/L* 173 DOM* 98.5% S/L* 19 DOM* Right Agent/Wrong Price Right Price/Wrong Agent Right Price/Right Agent FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2013 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com. Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 11
- 12. 4Q 2013 Metro Market Report Previous Listing Period Data Included Correctly pricing with the current market can result in multiple offers and sales prices at or above the Original Listing Price In 4Q 2013, more than 1 out of every 4 (24.6%) sales transactions resulted in selling prices that were equal to or higher than the original listing price 2,280 properties sold at 100%, or more, of their Original Listing price during 4Q 2013 Single Family Detached Residences Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty 12 12
Editor's Notes
- This slide just sets up the charts to follow showing the 8 counties we use to make up the Atlanta Metro Market.
- This slide shows the overall trend in sales since 2007, illustrating both seasonal trends and overall movement in the market. A relentless downturn occurred through 2009, followed by a recent upturn in sales beginning in 2011 and extending through 4Q 2013. YTD 2013 sales are nearly equal to last year causing uncertainty about the direction of the market with such low inventory.An increasing trend in sales can reduce the inventory of available listings, creating a more competitive market condition for buyers. Buyers should be made aware that the market is changed from that of recent years, even though sales are flat through 4Q 2013.
- The persistent drop in the number of active listings through 2012 while sales were relatively flat shows how competitive the market has become. A low supply of active listings creates a seller’s market condition allowing sellers to demand higher prices and stay closer to asking price when negotiating.Active listings have increased during 2013, possibly indicating a return to a supply closer to the “Balanced Market” condition of 6-7 months of supply. In that condition the there would be little psychological advantage for either buyers or sellers.
- This chart allows buyers to see where areas of interest to them fit with the overall supply rate of 3.7 months. This gives an indication of overall competitiveness in the geography of their choice
- Even though lower again in 4Q 2013, the market is still being influenced by Distressed Property sales. Short sales made up more than 58% of Distressed sales transactions, with more than 1 of every 5 total transactions being a distressed sale transaction. Buyers should know that these types of properties may offer a good chance to buy at an attractive price, but the S/L ratios for those properties are just as high as for non-distressed properties, so that low-ball offers are not as likely to be accepted as in the recent past.
- Looking further into the supply numbers shows that overall supply is held somewhat lower due to a very low supply condition for distressed properties, which make up more than 20% of Sales and more than 12% of Active listings. Buyers should be aware that the supply for distressed properties is much lower than for non-distressed properties, creating a greater incentive to act quickly on distressed properties that meet their needs. Buyers of non-distressed properties should know that the supply of non-distressed listings from which to choose is now also smaller, reducing the necessity for sellers to reduce prices or accept low-price offers.
- The overall rate of 21.6% of 4Q sales being distressed sales was quite different in different parts of the metro market. This chart gives buyers the perspective on where to expect to find selling prices that are more affected by distressed properties than others. The areas in dark green have less than 6% of sales that are distressed properties, so the impact on selling prices in those areas may be much lower than in the areas in red where more than 30% were distressed properties.
- Sellers who initially set their listing price too high for the current market were required to take price reductions to become more competitive. The percentage of sales which occurred after a price reduction (incidence) is an indication of the difficulty sellers had in pricing realistically and can offer an advantage to a buyer when considering a price-reduced house.The incidence of price reductions varies by price range and is usually higher in higher price ranges, but was substantially lower overall in 4Q 2013 compared to the same period last year.
- As said earlier, when looking at a price-reduced property, buyers may have a negotiation advantage since those properties sell at a bigger discount from original list price than those which have not had a price reduction. Again the degree of discount varies by price range, but holds true across all ranges. The median S/L ratio for all price-reduced property sales in 4Q 2013 was -9.2 percentage points lower than that of non-price reduced properties.Those properties that did not have a price reduction sold at a median of 98.4% of original list price. Buyers making offers on those properties should know that acceptance of an offer at a low percentage of original asking price has a very low probability of acceptance.
- It is essential for buyers to realize the types of situations they will run into in their house search and how those situations can affect the type of offers most likely to be acceptable by sellers. The effect of multiple listing periods on the eventual selling price and time on market (far left red box) is quite dramatic compared to those properties that were priced correctly, creating high value (green box). Price shoppers have a greater chance that lowball offers will be accepted when a property has been price reduced and an even better chance when it has been both price-reduced and listed multiple times.At the same time, a buyer making an offer on a house fitting the green box description will find that time is not on their side and offers nearer and sometimes above the asking price will likely be required for acceptance.Also, when making offers on properties fitting the descriptions on the 2 lower left boxes, buyers can make justifiable offers by applying the corresponding S/L % to the original list price for those conditions to arrive at a starting offer price much lower than the original asking price. If the seller has not already reduced the current list price to near that level, a lower-priced offer can be justified using these statistics to show what other sellers in a similar situation have had to do in order to sell.
- Buyers should also realize that when they find a house that meets their needs and has not been price-reduced or listed multiple times, the competitiveness of the market dictates that sellers will not need to negotiate away as much of their asking price. With more buyers than available properties in some cases, multiple buyers may make offers on a given property at the same time requiring offers at or above the listing price in order to “win” the bidding process. The degree to which this occurs has increased substantially in recent months due to the dwindling supply of available properties.