This presentations includes the basic fundamentals of time series data forecasting. It starts with basic naive, regression models and then explains advanced ARIMA models.
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand Show and Tell PPTMark Anthony
The document discusses conducting marketing research and forecasting demand. It outlines the 4 Ws and H of marketing research: what marketing research is, why it's conducted, how to conduct research, when to enter the market, and where to target customers. Marketing research involves systematic design, data collection, analysis, and reporting to provide insights. Demand forecasting estimates current and future demand to help companies set sales goals and understand market potential.
CMA Part 1: Planning, Budgeting and Forecasting Mohsin Munir
This document provides an overview of Section A of the 2010 CMA Part 1 exam, which covers planning, budgeting, and forecasting. It discusses key topics that will be covered in this section, including planning concepts, types of budgets, budget methodologies, forecasting techniques, and standard costing. The document also summarizes best practices for budget development, characteristics of effective budgets, and considerations for setting standard costs for direct materials, direct labor, and overhead. It emphasizes the importance of linking budgets to company goals and objectives and involving managers in the budgeting process.
Techniques for Forecasting Human ResourcesBHOMA RAM
This document outlines 14 techniques that can be used for forecasting human resource needs, including managerial judgment, trend analysis, ratio analysis, scatter plots, computerized forecasting, work study techniques, the Delphi technique, regression analysis, econometric models, nominal group technique, HR budget and planning analysis, scenario forecasting, workforce analysis, and job analysis. Each technique is briefly described in 1-2 sentences.
A sales forecast is a projection of expected customer demand for products or services over a specific time horizon and under certain assumptions. It is an essential tool for business planning, marketing, and management decision making that can help achieve sales goals, drive revenue, and reduce costs. Sales forecasts are influenced by both external factors like the economy and competition, and internal factors like prices and new product lines. Common sales forecasting methods include qualitative approaches like executive opinions and surveys, and quantitative approaches like time series analysis, regression analysis, and market testing.
How to integrate volatile/non-transparent emerging markets into powerful S&OP...Lidia Koubová
- Why classical S&OP fails in emerging and/or distributor markets
- Strategies for successful emerging market integration with existing S&OP and IBP process
- Before & after – incorporating distributors/third parties into a powerful S&OP
- Introduction steps, challenges and measurable benefits within 12—24 months
The document discusses sales forecasting for a company. It defines a sales forecast as a prediction of expected sales based on past performance and market conditions. Some key benefits of sales forecasting include enhanced cash flow, production planning, and identifying sales trends. Factors that influence forecasting include the market size, market share, existing/new contracts, and economic predictions. Common forecasting techniques include analyzing historical data, manager/executive judgment, and forecasting methods like using past sales percentages or growth projections. The document outlines data needed for an accurate forecast, including economic/market information, products/services, the business model, customer segments, and past revenue/sales opportunities.
Demand Planning at Ghirardelli: Developing a Best Practice Process in support of S&OP. Presented at the IBF Business Forecasting and Planning Conference, Scottsdale Arizona on February 25th, 2014
This presentations includes the basic fundamentals of time series data forecasting. It starts with basic naive, regression models and then explains advanced ARIMA models.
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand Show and Tell PPTMark Anthony
The document discusses conducting marketing research and forecasting demand. It outlines the 4 Ws and H of marketing research: what marketing research is, why it's conducted, how to conduct research, when to enter the market, and where to target customers. Marketing research involves systematic design, data collection, analysis, and reporting to provide insights. Demand forecasting estimates current and future demand to help companies set sales goals and understand market potential.
CMA Part 1: Planning, Budgeting and Forecasting Mohsin Munir
This document provides an overview of Section A of the 2010 CMA Part 1 exam, which covers planning, budgeting, and forecasting. It discusses key topics that will be covered in this section, including planning concepts, types of budgets, budget methodologies, forecasting techniques, and standard costing. The document also summarizes best practices for budget development, characteristics of effective budgets, and considerations for setting standard costs for direct materials, direct labor, and overhead. It emphasizes the importance of linking budgets to company goals and objectives and involving managers in the budgeting process.
Techniques for Forecasting Human ResourcesBHOMA RAM
This document outlines 14 techniques that can be used for forecasting human resource needs, including managerial judgment, trend analysis, ratio analysis, scatter plots, computerized forecasting, work study techniques, the Delphi technique, regression analysis, econometric models, nominal group technique, HR budget and planning analysis, scenario forecasting, workforce analysis, and job analysis. Each technique is briefly described in 1-2 sentences.
A sales forecast is a projection of expected customer demand for products or services over a specific time horizon and under certain assumptions. It is an essential tool for business planning, marketing, and management decision making that can help achieve sales goals, drive revenue, and reduce costs. Sales forecasts are influenced by both external factors like the economy and competition, and internal factors like prices and new product lines. Common sales forecasting methods include qualitative approaches like executive opinions and surveys, and quantitative approaches like time series analysis, regression analysis, and market testing.
How to integrate volatile/non-transparent emerging markets into powerful S&OP...Lidia Koubová
- Why classical S&OP fails in emerging and/or distributor markets
- Strategies for successful emerging market integration with existing S&OP and IBP process
- Before & after – incorporating distributors/third parties into a powerful S&OP
- Introduction steps, challenges and measurable benefits within 12—24 months
The document discusses sales forecasting for a company. It defines a sales forecast as a prediction of expected sales based on past performance and market conditions. Some key benefits of sales forecasting include enhanced cash flow, production planning, and identifying sales trends. Factors that influence forecasting include the market size, market share, existing/new contracts, and economic predictions. Common forecasting techniques include analyzing historical data, manager/executive judgment, and forecasting methods like using past sales percentages or growth projections. The document outlines data needed for an accurate forecast, including economic/market information, products/services, the business model, customer segments, and past revenue/sales opportunities.
Demand Planning at Ghirardelli: Developing a Best Practice Process in support of S&OP. Presented at the IBF Business Forecasting and Planning Conference, Scottsdale Arizona on February 25th, 2014
This document provides an outline for sales forecasting processes, including secondary and primary sales forecasting. It discusses key aspects of secondary forecasting such as linking forecasts to corporate goals, using KPIs, market analysis, and allocating forecasts based on available resources. Primary forecasting techniques included embedding past data, trend analysis, category-level forecasting, and distributor/account-level forecasting. The document emphasizes collecting and analyzing sales data at multiple levels and converting forecasts into action plans with specific, measurable goals tied to organizational objectives.
If you are thinking about expanding in SE Asia, Cambodia can offer great opportunities.
Why Cambodia?
1). Cambodian-Thai trade goals at $15B for 2020
2). Cambodia-Japan trade up 13% in 2019
3). Trade between Cambodia and the US rose by nearly 40% in 2019
4). Cambodia’s economy is projected to have grown by approximately 6.5 per cent in 2020, pushing GDP to some $29.362 billion
Working closely with you to support your expansion strategies
Entering a new market is a complicated process, requiring a lot of information, especially a clear understanding of the market and the competitive landscape. We offer hands-on market entry services to help our clients gain and sustain a competitive position in the Cambodia market.
MRTS Consulting has a dedicated team with extensive experience in Cambodia market. The team is well-placed to understand the requirements of the investors and able to facilitate market entry or to assist in the expansion of business interests in Cambodia.
We have in-depth knowledge of the marketplace and strong network of contacts within the public and private sector.
Contact us: vuthy@mrtsconsulting.com
Website: www.mrtsconsulting.com
Sales forecasting with examples ( asian paints and cocacola)sakshi singh
This document discusses sales forecasting methods used by Asian Paints and Coca-Cola. It describes Asian Paints' sales forecasting process which involves annual retail audits, regional forecasts by depot managers, and manufacturing forecasts using historical data and software. Coca-Cola's sales have been declining in recent years as consumers shift to healthier options. Quantitative forecasting methods include moving averages, ratios, and regression analysis. Qualitative methods rely on expert opinions and surveys. Accurate forecasting is important for cash flow, purchasing, and planning.
Sales forecasting is important for businesses to plan production levels, budgets, and marketing activities. There are quantitative and qualitative methods for sales forecasting. Quantitative methods include time series analysis of past sales data to identify trends and seasonality, as well as using market research data from consumer surveys. Qualitative methods include the Delphi technique of gathering expert opinions, brainstorming sessions to generate new ideas, and relying on intuition and experience. Accurate sales forecasts allow businesses to make informed decisions.
- Classical S&OP - What‘s included & not included
- How to integrate 3rd parties and distributors into S&OP
- „Before & after“ incorporating distributors/third parties into the classical S&OP set-up
- Introduction challenges and benefits after the S&OP roll out
Best Practices in Demand Planning and Sales ForecastingHatim Ratlami
The document discusses best practices for demand planning and sales forecasting. It begins with an abstract noting organizations spend significant resources on forecasting but poor practices can hamper goals. The top 10 demand planning mantras are then presented, including getting data quality right before forecasting, understanding data, defining metrics, leveraging statistical tools, establishing processes and calendars, assessing promotions, seeking consensus forecasts, being proactive in planning, managing exceptions, and utilizing market intelligence over forecasting. The document concludes with discussing the author and consulting firm that specializes in demand planning and provides related training and services.
The document provides an overview of key aspects of business planning, including defining the plan, authoring the plan, sales assumptions and strategies, and marketing. It discusses defining the business, objectives of writing a plan, common plan sections, templates, sales pipeline management, customer relationships, budgeting, exploring customer needs, and developing a marketing plan and mix. The document offers guidance on various elements to include in a business plan to clearly outline the business, objectives, strategies, financial projections, and team.
- The client runs an e-commerce company and wants to leverage data analytics to make informed business decisions.
- Key deliverables include collecting and analyzing sales, product, and customer data to identify trends and metrics. Dashboards will show KPIs, regional performance, highest/lowest sales and profits, and relationships between variables.
- The analysis found the company's highest gross profit was in 2017. Sales are usually highest in Q4 and lowest in Q1. Most orders use late shipping. The western region has the highest sales while the southern region has the lowest.
The document outlines a strategic marketing plan template containing sections for executive summary, company overview, situational analysis including Porter's 5 forces and competitor analysis, segmentation/targeting/positioning, marketing objectives, marketing mix strategy, innovation plan, marketing budget, projected profit and loss statement, and conclusion. The situational analysis examines the existing product mix, market size/growth, and consumer analysis. PESTEL, SWOT, and competitive analyses are also included. The marketing strategy discusses segmentation, targeting, positioning, the GE matrix, Ansoff matrix, and the marketing mix (4Ps/7Ps). Execution plans, budgets, and KPIs are outlined to project financial performance.
Ravi Prakash has over 9 years of experience in operations management, demand and supply planning, logistics, and commercial planning in the medical devices and FMCG industries. He has a degree in Operations Management and experience working with the APO Demand Planning and SNP modules. Currently he is leading the implementation of the APO SNP module for markets in the ASPAC region at Johnson & Johnson Medical as the Product Owner.
This document summarizes the agenda and key discussions from the Huntsville Hub Sales Meeting on August 6th, 2013. The agenda included shout outs for sales achievements, an update from the Caring AA's on important policies and guidelines, an SEC/college football season preview from Chad, and a discussion on effective daily planning and prospecting from Kyle and David. Key sales wins were recognized from Nickie Allison, Marijo Braddy, and Candy Ballenger. Chad provided a pipeline analysis and breakdown of SEC revenue by representative. Kyle and David emphasized the importance of having a strict yet flexible daily plan to stay on track and allocating time appropriately between existing and new accounts.
This document provides guidance for developing a business plan tailored to different audiences and types of businesses. For raising capital from banks or investors, the plan should include details on funds needed, their intended use, and projected growth, returns, and exit strategies. The operational plan section advises on including details specific to the business type, such as production levels, costs, pricing, quality control, inventory management, and location criteria. Developing the marketing plan involves analyzing the target market and competition, and outlining promotional strategies. Financial projections should include profit/loss, cash flow, and balance sheet statements for 5 years. Customizing the generic plan with company-specific information is key to its effectiveness.
Strategic Planning for Financial ServicesJenny Cavnar
The document discusses strategic planning and minimizing execution risk. It provides examples of strategic planning processes and components that work well, such as conducting planning sessions to establish a common fact base and agreeing upon a clear, shared vision and future direction. It also discusses evaluating opportunities and options at the business segment level to identify the best path to long-term value. Examples are provided of high performing community banks that effectively convert opportunities through customer-focused strategies and rigorous planning and execution processes.
Econometrics models sales and other key metrics like market share and brand awareness based on factors like price, distribution, advertising spend and more. The document discusses building an econometrics model including the needed data, factors for analysis like media activations and promotions, and how the model works. It can then be used to evaluate relationships between variables, forecast sales based on plans, compare ROI of different media, and analyze competitors. Building the initial model takes 1-2 months and then it requires quarterly updates and debugging over a year for ongoing use.
Marketing plan slideshow for jintan nude in myanamar Dr. Kyi Tha Htun
It is the study of Jintan Nude to market in Myanmar. It consist of empirical study of Local Market, Consumer Behavior in Myanmar, Competitor Analysis, SWOT , Marketing Budget Developing , Financial Feasibility and Full Frame Marketing Plan Development . It was developed by Dr Kyi Tha Htun, Wai Toe Kyaw, Dr Phyo Zay Oo, Lin Thein Naing, Than Naing Oo , Dr Kyaw Hsu Thway & Nay Chi Oo for Marketing Management of MBA,UTCC,Yangon,Myanmar. Please let us know if you have any citation.
Marketing Analytics: Data Quality, Data Matching & Marketing MetricsSenturus
Connect your sales and marketing systems to accurately profile and track your customers. View the webinar video recording and download this deck: http://www.senturus.com/resources/holy-grail-marketing-analytics/.
If you’re like many companies, you struggle to connect your sales and marketing systems and are frustrated by the inability to accurately profile and track your customers. Closing the loop to connect the two silo'd systems is easier to achieve than you may realize. Learn to use the right tools and maximize your expertise to easily surface critical marketing metrics to: 1) Measure return on marketing investment, 2) Know your customer lifetime value and 3) Optimize your marketing and sales funnels based on profit per marketing dollar.
Senturus, a business analytics consulting firm, has a resource library with hundreds of free recorded webinars, trainings, demos and unbiased product reviews. Take a look and share them with your colleagues and friends: http://www.senturus.com/resources/.
Strategic Planning For Product Development And Growth Product CampDeverges
The document discusses the importance of strategic planning for product development and sustained growth. It emphasizes that companies should think strategically on an ongoing basis and not get too focused on day-to-day tactics. Effective strategic planning involves understanding industry and market trends, performing segmentation analysis, evaluating product strengths and weaknesses, and establishing a clear mission and vision. It also stresses the importance of collaboration, challenging assumptions, and looking outside the company and industry for new opportunities. Regular strategic planning can help companies avoid missed opportunities and ensure their products continue to meet future customer needs.
The document provides guidance on developing a social media marketing strategy. It discusses conducting a situation analysis to understand where the business currently stands. This involves research, SWOT, PESTEL and competitor analyses. The document then covers setting objectives to define where the business wants to go. Lastly, it outlines developing a strategy to achieve the objectives, including segmentation, targeting, positioning and integrating different tactics. The overall strategy framework follows the SOSTAC model of situation analysis, objectives, strategy, tactics, action and control.
More Related Content
Similar to Marketing Forecasting at Post Foods division of Ralcorp Holding
This document provides an outline for sales forecasting processes, including secondary and primary sales forecasting. It discusses key aspects of secondary forecasting such as linking forecasts to corporate goals, using KPIs, market analysis, and allocating forecasts based on available resources. Primary forecasting techniques included embedding past data, trend analysis, category-level forecasting, and distributor/account-level forecasting. The document emphasizes collecting and analyzing sales data at multiple levels and converting forecasts into action plans with specific, measurable goals tied to organizational objectives.
If you are thinking about expanding in SE Asia, Cambodia can offer great opportunities.
Why Cambodia?
1). Cambodian-Thai trade goals at $15B for 2020
2). Cambodia-Japan trade up 13% in 2019
3). Trade between Cambodia and the US rose by nearly 40% in 2019
4). Cambodia’s economy is projected to have grown by approximately 6.5 per cent in 2020, pushing GDP to some $29.362 billion
Working closely with you to support your expansion strategies
Entering a new market is a complicated process, requiring a lot of information, especially a clear understanding of the market and the competitive landscape. We offer hands-on market entry services to help our clients gain and sustain a competitive position in the Cambodia market.
MRTS Consulting has a dedicated team with extensive experience in Cambodia market. The team is well-placed to understand the requirements of the investors and able to facilitate market entry or to assist in the expansion of business interests in Cambodia.
We have in-depth knowledge of the marketplace and strong network of contacts within the public and private sector.
Contact us: vuthy@mrtsconsulting.com
Website: www.mrtsconsulting.com
Sales forecasting with examples ( asian paints and cocacola)sakshi singh
This document discusses sales forecasting methods used by Asian Paints and Coca-Cola. It describes Asian Paints' sales forecasting process which involves annual retail audits, regional forecasts by depot managers, and manufacturing forecasts using historical data and software. Coca-Cola's sales have been declining in recent years as consumers shift to healthier options. Quantitative forecasting methods include moving averages, ratios, and regression analysis. Qualitative methods rely on expert opinions and surveys. Accurate forecasting is important for cash flow, purchasing, and planning.
Sales forecasting is important for businesses to plan production levels, budgets, and marketing activities. There are quantitative and qualitative methods for sales forecasting. Quantitative methods include time series analysis of past sales data to identify trends and seasonality, as well as using market research data from consumer surveys. Qualitative methods include the Delphi technique of gathering expert opinions, brainstorming sessions to generate new ideas, and relying on intuition and experience. Accurate sales forecasts allow businesses to make informed decisions.
- Classical S&OP - What‘s included & not included
- How to integrate 3rd parties and distributors into S&OP
- „Before & after“ incorporating distributors/third parties into the classical S&OP set-up
- Introduction challenges and benefits after the S&OP roll out
Best Practices in Demand Planning and Sales ForecastingHatim Ratlami
The document discusses best practices for demand planning and sales forecasting. It begins with an abstract noting organizations spend significant resources on forecasting but poor practices can hamper goals. The top 10 demand planning mantras are then presented, including getting data quality right before forecasting, understanding data, defining metrics, leveraging statistical tools, establishing processes and calendars, assessing promotions, seeking consensus forecasts, being proactive in planning, managing exceptions, and utilizing market intelligence over forecasting. The document concludes with discussing the author and consulting firm that specializes in demand planning and provides related training and services.
The document provides an overview of key aspects of business planning, including defining the plan, authoring the plan, sales assumptions and strategies, and marketing. It discusses defining the business, objectives of writing a plan, common plan sections, templates, sales pipeline management, customer relationships, budgeting, exploring customer needs, and developing a marketing plan and mix. The document offers guidance on various elements to include in a business plan to clearly outline the business, objectives, strategies, financial projections, and team.
- The client runs an e-commerce company and wants to leverage data analytics to make informed business decisions.
- Key deliverables include collecting and analyzing sales, product, and customer data to identify trends and metrics. Dashboards will show KPIs, regional performance, highest/lowest sales and profits, and relationships between variables.
- The analysis found the company's highest gross profit was in 2017. Sales are usually highest in Q4 and lowest in Q1. Most orders use late shipping. The western region has the highest sales while the southern region has the lowest.
The document outlines a strategic marketing plan template containing sections for executive summary, company overview, situational analysis including Porter's 5 forces and competitor analysis, segmentation/targeting/positioning, marketing objectives, marketing mix strategy, innovation plan, marketing budget, projected profit and loss statement, and conclusion. The situational analysis examines the existing product mix, market size/growth, and consumer analysis. PESTEL, SWOT, and competitive analyses are also included. The marketing strategy discusses segmentation, targeting, positioning, the GE matrix, Ansoff matrix, and the marketing mix (4Ps/7Ps). Execution plans, budgets, and KPIs are outlined to project financial performance.
Ravi Prakash has over 9 years of experience in operations management, demand and supply planning, logistics, and commercial planning in the medical devices and FMCG industries. He has a degree in Operations Management and experience working with the APO Demand Planning and SNP modules. Currently he is leading the implementation of the APO SNP module for markets in the ASPAC region at Johnson & Johnson Medical as the Product Owner.
This document summarizes the agenda and key discussions from the Huntsville Hub Sales Meeting on August 6th, 2013. The agenda included shout outs for sales achievements, an update from the Caring AA's on important policies and guidelines, an SEC/college football season preview from Chad, and a discussion on effective daily planning and prospecting from Kyle and David. Key sales wins were recognized from Nickie Allison, Marijo Braddy, and Candy Ballenger. Chad provided a pipeline analysis and breakdown of SEC revenue by representative. Kyle and David emphasized the importance of having a strict yet flexible daily plan to stay on track and allocating time appropriately between existing and new accounts.
This document provides guidance for developing a business plan tailored to different audiences and types of businesses. For raising capital from banks or investors, the plan should include details on funds needed, their intended use, and projected growth, returns, and exit strategies. The operational plan section advises on including details specific to the business type, such as production levels, costs, pricing, quality control, inventory management, and location criteria. Developing the marketing plan involves analyzing the target market and competition, and outlining promotional strategies. Financial projections should include profit/loss, cash flow, and balance sheet statements for 5 years. Customizing the generic plan with company-specific information is key to its effectiveness.
Strategic Planning for Financial ServicesJenny Cavnar
The document discusses strategic planning and minimizing execution risk. It provides examples of strategic planning processes and components that work well, such as conducting planning sessions to establish a common fact base and agreeing upon a clear, shared vision and future direction. It also discusses evaluating opportunities and options at the business segment level to identify the best path to long-term value. Examples are provided of high performing community banks that effectively convert opportunities through customer-focused strategies and rigorous planning and execution processes.
Econometrics models sales and other key metrics like market share and brand awareness based on factors like price, distribution, advertising spend and more. The document discusses building an econometrics model including the needed data, factors for analysis like media activations and promotions, and how the model works. It can then be used to evaluate relationships between variables, forecast sales based on plans, compare ROI of different media, and analyze competitors. Building the initial model takes 1-2 months and then it requires quarterly updates and debugging over a year for ongoing use.
Marketing plan slideshow for jintan nude in myanamar Dr. Kyi Tha Htun
It is the study of Jintan Nude to market in Myanmar. It consist of empirical study of Local Market, Consumer Behavior in Myanmar, Competitor Analysis, SWOT , Marketing Budget Developing , Financial Feasibility and Full Frame Marketing Plan Development . It was developed by Dr Kyi Tha Htun, Wai Toe Kyaw, Dr Phyo Zay Oo, Lin Thein Naing, Than Naing Oo , Dr Kyaw Hsu Thway & Nay Chi Oo for Marketing Management of MBA,UTCC,Yangon,Myanmar. Please let us know if you have any citation.
Marketing Analytics: Data Quality, Data Matching & Marketing MetricsSenturus
Connect your sales and marketing systems to accurately profile and track your customers. View the webinar video recording and download this deck: http://www.senturus.com/resources/holy-grail-marketing-analytics/.
If you’re like many companies, you struggle to connect your sales and marketing systems and are frustrated by the inability to accurately profile and track your customers. Closing the loop to connect the two silo'd systems is easier to achieve than you may realize. Learn to use the right tools and maximize your expertise to easily surface critical marketing metrics to: 1) Measure return on marketing investment, 2) Know your customer lifetime value and 3) Optimize your marketing and sales funnels based on profit per marketing dollar.
Senturus, a business analytics consulting firm, has a resource library with hundreds of free recorded webinars, trainings, demos and unbiased product reviews. Take a look and share them with your colleagues and friends: http://www.senturus.com/resources/.
Strategic Planning For Product Development And Growth Product CampDeverges
The document discusses the importance of strategic planning for product development and sustained growth. It emphasizes that companies should think strategically on an ongoing basis and not get too focused on day-to-day tactics. Effective strategic planning involves understanding industry and market trends, performing segmentation analysis, evaluating product strengths and weaknesses, and establishing a clear mission and vision. It also stresses the importance of collaboration, challenging assumptions, and looking outside the company and industry for new opportunities. Regular strategic planning can help companies avoid missed opportunities and ensure their products continue to meet future customer needs.
The document provides guidance on developing a social media marketing strategy. It discusses conducting a situation analysis to understand where the business currently stands. This involves research, SWOT, PESTEL and competitor analyses. The document then covers setting objectives to define where the business wants to go. Lastly, it outlines developing a strategy to achieve the objectives, including segmentation, targeting, positioning and integrating different tactics. The overall strategy framework follows the SOSTAC model of situation analysis, objectives, strategy, tactics, action and control.
Similar to Marketing Forecasting at Post Foods division of Ralcorp Holding (20)
Marketing Forecasting at Post Foods division of Ralcorp Holding
1. Marketing Forecast
At Post Foods,
Division of Ralcorp Holdings.
1
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
2. Main Topic
The topic of this presentation is forecasting
fast moving consumer goods from a
Marketing point of view.
Examine the business drivers and spending
that impact a brand performance and how
to quantify them into a forecast.
2
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
3. Agenda
• Forecasting at Post Foods
• How We Build the Forecast
• S&OP Consensus Process
• Marketing Forecast Tools
– Inputs
• The Drivers
– Driver Details
• External Factors
• Forecast Accuracy Measurement & Actions
• Measures of Success
• Challenges and Solutions
• Next Steps and Questions
3
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
4. Post Foods
• Founded by C. W. Post in 1895
• Was part of General Foods and then Kraft Foods until 2008 when
Post was acquired by Ralcorp Holdings
• Headquartered in Parsippany, NJ
• Over $1 Billion gross revenue - ~40% of Ralcorp net revenue
• #3 Ready to Eat Cereal, grown by 125% over the last 6 years
• 4 Plants plus several co-packers and 6 warehouses
• 103 SKU’s
• ~8 primary brands
• Customers include major grocery stores, mass merchandisers,
club, drug stores and Dollar stores
• David Zatz – Marketing Forecast Planner
4
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
5. Forecasting at Post Foods
• Scope
• Consumer goods – Ready To Eat Cereal; US Domestic only
• Short term and medium term – current quarter through next
fiscal year – this is Tactical S&OP, not Strategic
• Longer range forecasting is done less frequently for
capacity analysis and is outside the scope of this
presentation
• Focused on Brand but calculated at SKU
• Results drive Production Planning, Deployment and
Financial forecast
• Methodology
• Monthly Cycle and monthly buckets
• Strive to arrive at “one number”
• Avoid changing the forecast for next month
5
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
6. How We Build the Forecast
• Marketing drivers forecast impact vs. year ago
by brand
• Sales force bottom up forecast used for the
short term one to four month time period, built
mostly by customer and geography
• Statistical forecasting at the SKU level used for
scheduling and deployment
• All the voices come together in a monthly
S&OP process to arrive at one number to drive
the business and report up to corporate
6
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
7. S&OP Consensus Process
Different
• Drivers
• Goals
• Units of
measure
One Number
7
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
8. S&OP Consensus Process (cont.)
• Risks and Opportunities are discussed but not
included in the forecast – our version of a “range”
forecast
• Gaps in our numbers are used to alert management to
issues which may drive policy decisions to guide us to
one number
• This method works for Post Foods and other fast
moving consumer goods brands because a large
portion of customer sales are driven by trade
promotion, and consumer consumption is driven by
advertising and promotion. The Marketing Manager
is the general manager of the brand. Sales and
Marketing report separately to the President.
8
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
9. Marketing Forecast Tools
The Marketing Forecast uses several techniques to arrive at the
numbers presented during the S&OP meetings.
•Expert opinion and judgmental approach; reliance on the
expertise of others
Nielsen syndicated data
Consumer Insights – Marketing Mix Analysis
Sales and Customer behavior
•Time series and trend projections using market changes to predict
turning points
•Planned Marketing programs quantified into impact on expected
customer shipments
•The use of Nielsen market data to compare drivers to year ago
statistics
9
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
10. Inputs
• Monthly shipment history by SKU
– Customer level history is used to examine
outlier data
• Nielsen syndicated consumption data
• Other Marketing and consumer insights
analysis for each brand
10
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
11. The Drivers
• Equity
– Advertising
– Consumer Promotion
– Base Velocity
• Innovation
– New Products
• Price / Merchandising
– Merchandising
– Base Price
– Distribution
• Other Channels
– Wal-Mart, Club, Dollar
• Other
– Trade Inventory
These use a combination of Art and Science
11
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
13. Driver Details
Equity
Advertising and Consumer Promotions are
calculated based on planned spending and packages
sold on consumer promotion. We’re developing a tool
to break that down to flavors and SKU’s.
Innovation
For New Products, we include the first 12 months of
shipments as new products volume and multiply that
by an incrementality factor. Early ships are a
challenge for new products.
13
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
14. Driver Details (cont.)
These drivers are calculated for past months
using Nielsen syndicated data:
Merchandising
Base Velocity
Base Price
Distribution
For Trade Inventory, we compare monthly
customer shipments to a year ago and monthly
consumer consumption to a year ago
Other channels (Wal-Mart, Club, Dollar) are fed
directly from mangers of those businesses.
14
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
15. External Factors
• We use factors to control the results
– Incrementality
– Elasticity
– Velocity Weight Factor
– Competitive Activity
• As the marketplace changes, we use these
factors to adjust the drivers
• For example, over the last two years we’ve
seen a much greater sensitivity to price
changes so we can adjust the elasticity to
reflect this market change.
15
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
16. Forecast Accuracy Measurement & Action
• Every month we measure forecast accuracy at the brand,
top customers and SKU levels and use that to make
adjustments going forward.
• For example, will the missed forecast last month result in
something that will continue for future months or was it a
one-time event that will result in the opposite affect in the
short term?
• When the absolute error is greater than the threshold, both
customer shipments and consumer consumption are
examined closely
16
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
17. Measures of Success
• Spend our Marketing and Trade Promotion dollars
to maximize returns and drive our business
forward as planned – making revenue and profit
targets
• Maintain inventory levels and customer fill rate
targets while minimizing production disruptions
and costs
• Anticipate the impact of business decisions
• Allow Marketers to focus on Marketing
17
Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
18. Challenges & Solutions
• Forecasting new categories • Use similar products and Bases
• Deviating from the focus of forecast • Focus on one number and emphasize
accuracy for other business needs best guess; adjust inventory policy for
like inflating the forecast where tight capacity; better utilize risks and
capacity is tight opportunities
• Getting timely and accurate input • Develop and adhere to a firm schedule;
from all systems and people get senior management support
• Converting the forecast into different • Define the standard conversion rates,
units of measure, levels of product maintain and use them for reporting
aggregation, geographies, and and integrating results
more…
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Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
19. Challenges & Solutions (cont.)
• Nielsen data is split into months of • Where necessary spread the monthly
4-4-5 weeks but shipments and shipments into a 4-4-5 pattern for
forecasts are on calendar months comparison to consumption
• Determining trade inventory levels • Combine industry standards with
estimates and past patterns
• Expanding complexity into other • Fold other categories into existing
grocery categories (different systems
manufacturing, lead times, etc.)
• Profitability by brand and SKU is • Develop the calculation for customer
calculated and used to drive profitability – partner more closely
decisions but profitability by with customers
customer is unknown
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Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
20. Next Steps
• Deeper analysis for Risks & Opportunities
followed by appropriate action
• Develop Sales tools and expand their role in the
S&OP process
• Expand SKU level bottom up calculation in the
marketing forecast models to include
– Lift
– Distribution changes
– Other channels
– Advertising campaigns and promotional events
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Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!
21. Questions
DLZatz@gmail.com
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Fostering Demand Planning and Forecasting for Nearly 30 Years!