The central premise is that uncertainty originates from unclear relationships of cause and effect. Effects, such as events, problems, and experiences, are observed without generative cause. Uncertainty creates a partial world. A world where what is happening is known, but not why or how. Knowledge is incomplete. Managing uncertainty around complex issues involves engaging in a deliberate and workshop-style process focused on explanations. Explanations rejoin cause and effect by crafting a causal mechanism that produces the observed effect. When cause and effect are joined, the uncertainty is managed, and a complete world is produced. As the produced explanation that takes the form of "This and this is happening because of such and such" becomes the basis for action, the degree to which uncertainty is truly managed becomes apparent. The explanation workshop is iterative and can be moved through as many times as necessary to manage uncertainty.

1. Managing Uncertainty in
Emergency Management Through Explanation
Gregory Vigneaux, M.S.
Operational Coherence
@Gregory_Vig
Session 7 14:10-14:30
Crises, Emergencies and Disasters
– a Continuum of Challenges and
Opportunities in the 21st Century
11th to 15th September 2023

2. • Uncertainty in the emergency manager's
operational context is a product of unclear
relationships of cause and effect. ​
• Effects such as events, problems, and
experiences, are observed without any
discernable generative cause.
• As a result, it is unclear as to why what is being
observed in the world is happening.
Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century
Uncertainty as Unclear Causality
Effect Cause
Uncertainty

3. • Uncertainty creates a partial world,
where what is happening is known, but
not why or how. Knowledge is
incomplete.
• No evident cause for an observed effect
or effects is an indicator one or
more effects are in the uncertain
domain and signal strategies and
tactics need to change.
• The focus in this domain is on
understanding effects (what
is being observed and categorized as
"known") to build towards forming
explanations. Engaging with effects may
provide insight into what their possible
causes are.
• Emergency managers should cautiously
make decisions and design strategy and
tactics. Uncertainty undermines the
foundations for all three.
Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century
The Uncertain Domain
Effects
Uncertainty

4. • To transition an uncertain effect to a certain one, it must be
connected with a cause. Explanations perform this function
and follow the format: "If this and this happens, then the
result is such and such.” - Maturana
• Intentional workshop-style processes
of explanation propose causes for effects and unite the two.
Uncertainty is brushed away as it is no longer unclear
why the effect was experienced. The uncertainty is
explained and therefore managed.
• The causes generated by workshop participants join with
effects to create a complete world. It is not the world in
some natural sense, but an artificial one agreed upon by
consensus and accepted by others. It is a world that
satisfices.
Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century
Uncertainty to CertaintyThrough Explanation
Basis for Decision-making
Cause
Effect

5. Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century
Generative Mechanism
Informal Condition
Effect without cause (Uncertainty) Testable cause & effect (Managed Uncertainty)
(Negotiation) (Causal Proposition)
Iterative
Explanatory Loop
Based on the Work
of Humberto
Maturana
Design