Launching of the book in February 2019 at Tunisia Polytechnic School.

1. ‫جديد‬ ‫من‬ ‫تونس‬ ‫لتشع‬
MAKING THE TUNISIAN
RESURGENCE
‫للتقنيات‬ ‫التونسية‬ ‫المدرسة‬
Ecole Polytechnique de Tunisie
Amphi Ibn Khaldun, le 08 février 2019

2. WHY THIS BOOK ?
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
“If the people one day will to live, then destiny must
respond, the night must disappear and the chain must
break.”
Aboul-Qacem Echebbi (1909–1934)

3. 3
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> Why this book ?
▫ The current situation of Tunisia requires an integrated development strategy
embedding institutions, politics, economics and individuals in an interlinked
framework.
>> Unlock the dynamism, creativity and solidarity.
>> Break out the post-revolution vicious circle
>> Transform Tunisia to a developed country
>> Resurgence of Tunisia as a knowledge-based and inclusive country.

4. 4
Current socio-economic
situation
Knowledge-based
&inclusive country
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> Why this book ?

5. 5
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> Why this book ?
▫ Contribute to the process of engaging Tunisians in a common national project
>> Social cohesion
>> “….bring people together around a common set of goals, norms, rules and larger vision that, over
time, will encourage people to WORK TOGETHER MORE CONSTRUCTIVELY AND PEACEFULLY“
(Kaplan and Freeman 2015, 27).
▫ A social cohesive country is not only less vulnerable to conflicts and divisions but also takes
advantage from its diversity and builds its common identity.

6. A RICH CIVILIZATIONAL
TRAJECTORY
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi

7. 7
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
A RICH CIVILIZATIONAL PATH
▫ Carthage : First republic . Aristotle noted in its Polities that stability, absence of serious civil
troubles and tyrants in Carthage, were the result of its constitution (Newman, 2010).
> Dominated the East Mediterranean trade by the end of the 6th century BC.
> Following the second Punic war (218-201 BC) : a well governed state, steep economic growth and increased wealth.
> Traité de Magon
▫ The Great Mosque (Oqba Ibn Nafii) was a centre of knowledge not only in Islamic thought but
also in secular sciences (Knapp and Barbour (1977).
> The Aghlabid Basins: unequalled ingenuity and technical expertise at the time.
▫ Al-Zituna Mosque flourished and was one of the major centers of Islamic learning.

8. 8
▫ Sicily (Fatimid dynasty (909-1171)): a bridge of knowledge transmission to
the Occident, as it was the case for Andalusia in Spain.
▫ Salerno : a centre of medical study, from where Greco-Arabic
knowledge had been spread to the west"(Houben 2002, 100).
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A rich civilizational path
▫ Ibn Abi al-Rijal (? - 1037) : an astrologer and astronomer famous
for his treatise, Kitāb al-bāri' fi ahkām an-nujūm.
▫ Ibn Chabbat (1221-1285) : a scholar and mathematician born in
Tozeur.
▫ Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) : considered as the father of modern
sociology.
▫ Mohamed Tahar Ben Achour (1879-1973); Abdelaziz Thâalbi
(1876-1944); Tahar Haddad (1899-1935); Béchir Torki (1931;
2009),…..
▫ Abbas Bahri (1955-2016) : the supreme contemporary scientific
personality of Tunisia in mathematics.

9. 9
▫ 1859- political reform movement : al-Sadok Bey promulgated the Fundamental Act (Ahd El
Amen)
▫ 1861: transformation of the political system to a constitutional monarchy with separation of
powers.
▫ 1873: Khayr al-Din’s reforms : Reform of public institutions and courts, limit corruption,
restructure the economic activities, restore peace and confidence in the political system in all
the regions of the country (Aqwam al-Masalik fi Ma`rifat Ahwal al-Mamalik).
▫ After the independence: under the leadership of Bourguiba catalysation of a modernization
dynamic based on universal education and health, women empowerment (namely through the
code of Personal Status in August 1956) and family planning.
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A rich civilizational path

10. The current
socio-economic
situation
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi

11. 11
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
Source: Data from the National Institute of Statistics
>> The current situation of Tunisia
A DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY…
10%
16%
10%
43%
21% Agriculture et pêche
Industries manufacturières
Industries non
manufacturières
Activités de services
marchands
Activités non marchands
19%
1%
17%
10%
1%
9%
10%
33%
Industries Agro-
alimentaires
Industrie du Tabac
Textile, Habillement
et cuir
Industries diverses
Raffinage de pétrole
Industries chimiques
1%
23%
10%
16%
11%
10%
29%
Entretien et
réparation
Commerce
Services
d'hôtellerie et de
restauration
Transports
Poste et
télécommunication
Services financiers
Autres Services
marchands
▫ The structure of the economy in 2017: services (64%), agriculture (10%) , industries (26%)
▫ Employment in services (52%); agriculture (14.5%), manufacturing (19%) and non-manufacturing (14.5%).

12. 12
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
…. BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT VALUE ADDED AND INNOVATION
3,5
5,2
6,7
4,2
3,0
3,5
-1,9
4,0
3,0 2,9
1,1 1,0
1,9
2,6
3,1
6,9
7,7 8,0
5,0 5,0
7,4
5,5 5,2 5,5 5,7 5,7
5,2 5,3
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
GDP GROWTH (constant price)
Tunisia Lower Middle Income
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (annual % growth)
Industry (including construction), value added (annual % growth)
Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
Services, value added (annual % growth)
Public administration wage (annual %growth)

13. 13
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
▫ Failure to reallocate the production resources to high-return activities and escape the low-productivity trap
 Relatively low rate of GDP growth and insufficient and low quality jobs creation.
▫ More than 50% of Tunisia's highly educated workers are employed in the public sector, mainly in health and
education.
▫ In 2010, only 16 % of employees of the private sector had a high level of education.
▫ FDIs are concentrated in labor-intensive and low-value added activities (textile, tourism, call centers) which
do not require high skills (despite the presence of many foreign firms in electronics, aerospace activities)

14. 14
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
THE BRAIN DRAIN
Brain Drain - A World Overview - OECD
▫ Acceleration of the pace of emigration of
qualified Tunisian to Europe.
▫ The percentage of Tunisians holding a tertiary
education living in OECD is more than 20%.
▫ The knowhow resides in brains : Tunisia shall
attract its brilliant brains shining across the
globe.
>> The current situation of Tunisia

15. 15
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
NON-INCLUSIVE ECONOMY
▫ Inclusive economic system: economic opportunities available to individuals according to
their competences, ideas and initiatives rather than wealth of their families, political and
social connections. (R. Levine, 2011) .
▫ There is sentiment that the political institutions are supportive of economic policies that
benefit to the most representative classes.
▫ Young Tunisians are still feeling excluded from the political system and their trust in the
public institutions is low especially in the rural regions.
>Trust in politics : < 5% in the rural regions & ~ 30% in the urban regions.
▫ Weak financial inclusion : 27% of Tunisians (age +15) have an account at a formal financial
institution (Malaysia 81% ; Turkey 57%)

16. 16
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
DISPERSED R&D WITH INSUFFICIENT IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
▫ Tunisia’s rank in the Global Innovation Index deteriorated to 77th in 2016 (versus 59th
position in 2012).
▫ Tunisia is relatively well positioned (45th) regarding "Human capital and research“.
▫ The country is bad ranked in terms of "university/industry research collaboration"
(107th), "knowledge absorption (103rd) "Market sophistication (123)" and "Business
sophistication " (107).
>> lack of an adequate and modern national ecosystem to favor innovation and
university/industry collaboration.

17. 17
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
The Tunisian Governance Indicators (2010-2017)
(ranges from 0 (lowest) to 100 (highest) rank)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
‫ال‬ ‫مقاومة‬
‫ف‬
‫ساد‬
‫ت‬
‫ط‬
‫القانون‬ ‫بيق‬
‫ج‬
‫الت‬ ‫ودة‬
‫ش‬
‫ريعات‬
‫ف‬
‫ال‬ ‫اعلية‬
‫ج‬
‫ها‬
‫ز‬
‫التن‬
‫ف‬
‫ي‬
‫ذ‬
‫ي‬
‫و‬ ‫السياسي‬ ‫اإلستقرار‬
‫غ‬
‫العن‬ ‫ياب‬
‫ف‬
‫واإلرهاب‬
‫والمحاسبة‬ ‫التعبير‬ ‫حرية‬
Source: Data from the worldwide Governance Indicators, 2016 Update

18. 18
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> The current situation of Tunisia
WEAK BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
▫ ‘Mostly unfree’ economy in the 2017 Index of Economic Freedom : 123 / 180 countries – Malaysia (27),
Morocco (86) Turkey (60).
▫ Heavy State regulation :
> impeding the performance of the entire economy
> exclusion of potential entrepreneurs lacking connections to politicians or the administration.
▫ Edmond Phelps: two prerequisites for the modernization of the Tunisian economic system :
i) End the political control of the business sector by the privileged set;
ii) End the bureaucratic control of self-employment through licenses and other barriers.

19. 19
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, LEADERSHIP & THE REFORM CONSTRAINTS
>> The current situation of Tunisia
▫ Difficulties/inability in reaching a national consensus on the implementation of the
necessary economic reforms.
▫ Difficult coordination and dialogue between the multiple actors of the Tunisian
economy even within the executive.
▫ Lack of institutional capacity within each ministry to conceive the details of the reforms
(The Council of Economic Analysis of the Presidency of the Government).
▫ Insufficient ability of the State to ensure that the planned objectives are met. The
execution of many planned public investment expenditures was not realized due to the
limited implementation capacity of the government.

20. A knowledge-based
country
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi

21. 21
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
WHAT IS A KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY ?
▫ Creation of wealth: complex process requiring the conjunction of a multitude of factors:
Human
capital
Knowledge
R&D
Labor
Physical
capital
TALENT is a central ingredient in the production of
knowledge : …individuals who demonstrate exceptional
talent in their teenage years have an irreplaceable ability
to create new ideas over their lifetime.
Talented individuals born in low- or middle-income
countries are systematically less likely to become
knowledge producers. (Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaule
(2018), Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance
Faster? IMF WP/18/268)

22. 22
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
Participation of the private
sector : 60%-70% focused on
specific sectors

23. 23
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
Human
capital
Knowledge
R&D
Labor
Physical
capital
Total factor productivity (TFP)
The dominant factor accounting for the difference in
development levels within a group of 112 countries over the period 1970-
2000 (Source: Charles R. Hulten and Anders Isaksson (2007) “Why Development
Levels Differ: The Sources of Differential Economic Growth in a Panel of High and Low
Income Countries”)
1,7%
-0,9%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
2001-2010 2011-2017
TFP - Tunisia
1961-1990 2.6%
1991-2003 2.4%
TFP- South Korea

24. 24
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
Human
capital
Knowledge &
R&D
Labor
Physical
capital
Digital capital : an additional important driver of economic growth:
Source of approximately 1/3 of global GDP growth :
Intangible digital assets (2/3)
Tangible digital capital (1/3)
(McKinsey, 2013)
Expenditures on Digital Capital : 3% GDP in the 40 most developed
countries
• INCLUSION : Social and economic inclusion
• EFFICIENCY : of the organizations, administrations and enterprises
(+1/10 -- 1.6% to 2% point of Growth)
Entire Digitalisation over 2017-2024
 1,57% growth 5 092.7 MDT
• INNOVATION : new products, processes, channels enabled by the
new forms of cooperation, networking, connectivity to the global
market and to the unmet (previously isolated) market niches.
Source: World Development Report (2016)

25. 25
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
?
Jordan
Morocco
Oman
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Kuwait
Iran
Lebanon
Qatar
Tunisia
United
Arab
Emirates
Yemen
y = 0,98x + 5,12
R² = 0,73
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Financial
Market
Development
and
Ease
of
access
to
loans
(Rank
over
155)
Availability of last technologies
Jordan
Morocco
Oman
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
Algeria
Bahrain
Iran
Kuwait
Lebanon
Qatar
Tunisia
UAE
Egypt
y = 0,84 x - 2,8
R² = 0,63
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Efficiency
in
using
public
funds
and
level
of
irrigular
payments
and
bribes
(Rank
over
155
countries)
Availability of last technologies (rank over 155 countries)
Sources: Source: Data retrieved from the Networked Readiness Index Historical Dataset 2012-2016
& The Global Competitiveness Index Historical Dataset 2007-2016 World Economic Forum 2016-2017

26. 26
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> A knowledge-based and inclusive country
“Tunisia is well positioned to become a regional champion in innovation and
entrepreneurship if it recognizes the potential of young aspiring businesswomen and
businessmen. “
Tunisia’s Strategic Plan for Digital Economy,
Guarantee Social Inclusion and Reducing digital disparities
Promoting the “Digital” culture
E-Government
Job creation, Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Improve enterprise competitiveness
Transition Tunisia’s economy to encompass all things Digital >> START-UP ACT

27. Towards an integrated
development strategy
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi

28. 28
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> An integrated development strategy
▫ The development strategies based on the Washington consensus focused
narrowly on economics.
▫ "For more than four decades, development was seen (at least by those in the
“mainstream”) as mainly a matter of economics “ (Stiglitz 1998).
ECONOMIC POLICY IS NOT SUFFICIENT !

29. 29
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
▫ Economics shall be reoriented to the study of man as he is and the economic
system as it actually exists. (Ronald Coase, 2012)
▫ Ibn Khaldun adopted a multidisciplinary and dynamic approach to show how
the interrelated relationship …factors leads to the rise and fall of societies.
(Chapra 2008).
ECONOMIC POLICY IS NOT SUFFICIENT !
>> An integrated development strategy ?

30. 30
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
ECONOMIC POLICY IS NOT SUFFICIENT !
(G- Governance)
(S - Beliefs and rules
of behavior)
(N- Individuals)
(W - Wealth)
(J- Justice)
& (D-development)
THE CASUAL RELATIONSHIPS
IN IBN KHALDUN'S DEVELOPMENT THEORY
Source: Chapra (2008)
>> An integrated development strategy ?

31. 31
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> An integrated development strategy
▫ The main principles that Khayr al-Din (1810-1890) stressed in his contribution to the reform
tentative of the nineteenth century :
 Progress is not possible without justice and freedom which are inherent pillars of Islam,
 Islamic prescriptions do not forbid getting inspired from the West’s practices related to
development and civism,
 If the Muslim countries wish to exit underdevelopment, they have to undertake institutional
reforms in the political, administrative and socio-economic spheres,
 The refusal of progress and reforms is a sort of treason to the nation.

32. 32
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE Mahmoud Sami Nabi
THE INTERRELATIONSHIPS IN STIGLITZ'S
INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT PARADIGM
Source: Stiglitz (1998)
State -public sector
Community
Private sector
Family
Individual
Education
>> An integrated development strategy
ECONOMIC POLICY IS NOT SUFFICIENT !
▫ This dynamic is to be triggered by
individuals and societies employing a
participatory approach for
setting forth the vision of the
transformation (the society in ten or
twenty years for example)
and embracing the targets (quantitative
goals) to reach.

33. 33
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE
Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> An integrated development strategy
Enabling Innovative mechanisms
Reeingering
the role of State
Culture and religion
in favor of development
Unlocking the
economic potential
Smart integration
in the global
economy
Modern
& efficient
State
Efficient
& innovative
market economy
Social
cohesion
Fair and modern social
contract
Social &
solidarity
economy

34. 34
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE
Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> An integrated development strategy
Leadership
&
Inclusive
institutions
Human
capital, R&D
& Innovation
Economic
management /
Financial
resources

35. 35
MAKING THE TUNISIAN RESURGENCE
Mahmoud Sami Nabi
>> An integrated development strategy
Enabling Innovative mechanisms
Leadership
&
Inclusive
institutions
Human
capital, R&D
& Innovation
Economic
management /
Financial
resources
Reeingering
the role of State
Culture and religion
in favor of development
Unlocking the
economic potential
Smart integration
in the global
economy
Modern
& efficient
State
Efficient
& innovative
market economy
Social
cohesion
Fair and modern socia
contract
Social &
solidarity
economy