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Lost in Monetary Space?
Economic Geographies of Money and
Finance without Macrofoundations
Prof. Dr. David Bieri
School of Public & International Affairs,
Department of Economics,
Global Forum on Urban & Regional Resilience,
VIRGINIA TECH, Blacksburg, USA | david-bieri.com | @space_economy
Universität zu Köln
5th Global Conference on Economic Geography – July 2018
Money and metropolis
“The metropolis has always been the seat of the money economy.”
— Georg Simmel (Die Philosophie des Geldes, 1930)
“The truth is that money and cities have always been a part of daily routine, yet
they are present in the modern world as well.
Money and cities are also multipliers, capable of adapting to change and
helping to bring about it. One might say that cities and money created
modernity; but conversely, […] modernity—the changing mass of men's lives—
promoted the expansion of money and led to the growing tyranny of the cities.
Cities and money are at one and the same time motors and indicators; they
provoke and indicate change.”
— Fernand Braudel (Afterthoughts on Material Culture and Capitalism, 1977)
“Capitalism is essentially a financial system, and the peculiar behavioral
attributes of a capitalist economy center around the impact of finance upon
system behavior."
— Hyman Minsky (Issues in Banking and Monetary Analysis,1967)
Colonial settlement,
("Isolierter Staat")
Emergent central place
("merchant republic")
Core-periphery contours,
emergent urban hierarchy
First wave of
suburbanisation, city
restructuring ("Streetcar
suburbs")
Economic growth and a new
urban form (“Rise of the
monocentric city")
Suburbanization
Spatial sorting and
the rise of the
polycentric city
Global cities (from "Edge
cities" to "Boomburbs")
Negligible regulation Increasing regulator, rise of fiscal
federalism
Strong (direct): Manager,
progressive regulatory state (Anti-
trust)
Strong (indirect 1): Partner,
facilitator
Strong (indirect 2):
"Too big to fail“, re-
articulation of
regulatory state
Weak (direct):
Deregulation,
“Washington
Consensus”
URBAN
HIERARCHY
REGULATION
Mutual fund (1774, NL); Inflation-linked bond (1780, USA)
Modern mutual
fund (1924, USA)
VC industry
(1940s, USA)
Hedge fund (1949, USA)
LBOs (1955, USA)
ATM (1967, UK)
MBS (1970, USA)
Black-Scholes
(1973, USA)
Pre-1800s: Stock exchange,
insurance company, central bank
ETF (1993, CA)
CDS (1994,
USA)
Algorithmic,
HFT >50% of
all trades
(2012)
FINANCIAL
INNOVATION
Financialisation
Money and metropolis
Bimetallism
Gold standard 1: Fixed
exchange rates, free banking
Gold standard 2: Specie standard,
fixed exchange rates, central
banking
Gold standard 3:
Gold exchange
standard, Interwar
period
Pre-convertible
Bretton Woods
Convertible
Bretton Woods
Post-Bretton
Woods 1: Managed
float
Post-Bretton Woods 2:
Free floating
Stage 1: Deposit
taking only
Stage 2: Bank liabilities as
means of payment
Stage 3: Inter-bank lending,
collective credit expansion
Stage 4: Central bank as "lender of last
resort", endogenous bank reserves
Stage 5: Liability management
with banks seeking both lending
opportunities and deposits
Stage 6: Securitization,
off-balance sheet credit
creation
Stage 7: Central bank as the
"dealer of last resort",
quantitative easing and
"monetization" of fiscal policy
MONETATRY
REGIME
BANKING
DEVELOPMENT
Blockchains
(2010s)
Overview
and
main issues
Ongoing “Methodenstreit” over space
• Uneasy historical relationship between spatial economics
and economic geography
• Contemporary dominance of Anglophone genealogy
• Yet “hysterisis” and “path-dependence” also characteristic of
heterodox origins story:
1. “Raumwirtschaftslehre” (von Thünen) vs. “Handelsgeographie”,
“Wirtschaftsgeographie” (Jannasch, Hettner, Waibel).
2. Spatial turn of empiricial business cycle theory (Lösch)
3. Regional science, new urban economics and the post-war
quantitative turn (Isard)
4. Revival of political economic geography (regulation theory, Harvey)
5. New Economic Geography and “economic imperialism” (Krugman)
“Walrasian” bifurcation?
• After a “glorious half century”, economic geography as a
post-war scientific project is at a historic cross-roads.
• Dialogue between regional scientists, urban economists and
economic geographers increasingly polarised/siloed.
– Regional science, NEG and “new neoclassical urban economics”
[NNUE] have enshrined classical dichotomy, micro-economic “rigor”.
– Economic geography is steeped Marxian political economy (but
largely without “monetary content”, e.g. circuitist approach to money
and credit or MELT).
• Despite post-crisis surge, financial and monetary
geographies do not embrace monetary theory.
– Aspatiality of “monetary Walrasianism” (Hahn problem)
– Focus on accumulation: Spatial “money muddles”, “money
mischief” and “monetary controversies”
Tensions in spatial analysis
Money
and credit
Space economy
“Raumwirtschaft”
Economic order
and distribution
“Wirtschaftsformen”
Lösch
Isard
The region, distribution, and money
• German Political Economy and the “Systemgedanke”
– The “economic dialectics of enlightenment”: Liberty, rationality, and
economic order (Hegel vs Mill)
– August Lösch’s monetary theory and its implications for the spatial
non-neutrality of money
• The distributional consequences of the macrofoundations
of the monetary-financial order:
– Spatial variation of interest rates as monetary transmission channel
(e.g. administered prices of CB, GSEs vs local interest rates)
– Institutional design of money matters (Lutz’s “Geldverfassung”;
Buchanan’s “Constitutionalization of Money”)
– Contemporary relevance (FRB Interdistrict Settlement Accounts,
“TARGET2 balances”, Chicago Plan [100% Reserve Money], FinTech)
The microfoundations revolution
• Search for “micromotives” of “macrobehaviour” at heart of
key movement in (empirical) social sciences since 1930s
• Methodological individualism as research paradigm
– Economics: “Microfoundations” (from Keynes to the rational
expectations revolution of Lucas, and Schelling’s strategic interaction,
behavioural economics)
– Sociology: “Economic action and social structure” (from Weber,
Parsons to Granovetter, Coleman)
 What can geographers contribute to the challenge of the
aggregation problem?
Lost in “monetary space”?
• The remit of post-crisis financial geography
– Geographies of financialization, inequality (Lee et al. 2009)
– Geographies of finance and the VoC literature (Peck and Theodore
2007; Dixon 2011; Engelen 2012)
• The end of geography after the end of the “end of
geography”?
– What is geographical about the new questions?
– No coherent theoretical framework on “spatialities of credit–debt”
(Sokol 2013, 2017)
• Kaleckian conundrum? “Confusing stocks with flows”:
– Marxian and other classical approaches focus on accumulation
– Spatial re-switching of capital (Harvey’s “spatial fix”); Sheppard and
Barnes’ (1990) The Capitalist Space Economy
“The end of geography”, again?
Source: O’Brian & Keith (2009)
2018: FinTech, RegTech
e.g. BCSB (2018), Bieri, Franzi
and Simundza (2018)
Money matters:
What are the
questions?
What are the (monetary) questions?
• What is money?
– Medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value
• What causes money to be established?
– Barter economy (monetary Walrasianism) vs. “endogenous money”
• What assets are likely to be used as money (narrow money
and near-money substitutes)
– Commodity money, fiat money, credit money (chartallism, metallism)
– Token money, uncovered bank deposits, money market certificates
• What are the private and social cost-benefits of money?
– Creditworthiness, frictions and risk premia
• What are the effects of changes in the quantity of money?
• How much control over money supply?
– Endogenous money, “horizontalism”, base-multiplier “in reverse”
Themes in post-war monetary theory
• The neutrality of money
– Classical dichotomy
– Integration of price theory and value theory (Patinkin)
• Theories of demand for money (velocity of circulation and
income)
– Liquidity preference theory (Hansen, Tobin)
– Restatement of the Quantity Theory (Friedman)
– Credit theory of money (Gurley and Shaw)
• Theories of money supply, monetary control, and monetary
dynamics (inflation: SR vs LR Phillips curve and NAIRU)
• Monetary policy
• Theories of interest
– Real vs. nominal rates
Monetary themes in regional analysis
• Urbanisation and locational economies of financial industry
– Regional financial centres, agglomeration economies of
information, deposit concentration
• Finance-growth nexus of regional development
• Regional transmission mechanism of monetary policy
– Regional economic adjustment
– Interest rate differentials, structure of financial intermediation
– Regional flow-of-funds (incl. reserve flows)
• Regional balance of payments
– Classical “transfer problem” vs. monetary approach to BoP
• Geography of money and inflation
– Regional COLI differentials, spatial PPP
– Optimal currency areas
Beyond Harvey’s hegemony
• Little monetary content of contemporary regional studies,
economic geography, yet active research on financialisation.
• Marxian and other classical approaches focus on accumulation
• David Harvey’s (1982, 2017) faulty macro-economic premises:
– Debt as lack of money rather than money itself
– Fiscal policy as operationally dependent on bond sales (governments
controlled by bondholders)
– “Quantitative Easing” as increase of “money supply” instead of straight
asset swap
– No distinction between the monetary powers of sovereign governments
and IFIs (BIS, IMF, WB)
– Keynesianism as Samuelsonian neoclassical synthesis (Hicks-Hansen
IS/LM), culminating with Paul Krugman
Monetary macrofoundations
• Revisiting Peck and Theodore (2007)
– “Economic geography’s cautious stance vis-a-vis macro-institutional
and system-centric analysis”
• Money as social relation, quintessential “macrofoundation”:
– Absence of money in the Walrasian general equilibrium system.
– Distributional impacts of (international) monetary arrangements,
monetary policy
– Political economy of monetary governance, regulation
• Monetary ideas and institutions matter (“money interest” vs.
“public interest”)
 How does the political economy of money matter for the
space-economy?
More macrofoundations
• Business cycles across different economic paradigms:
– Marxian: M – C – M’
– Keynesian: Y = C + I + G + (X-M)
– Monetarist: PY = MV (Quantity Theory)
– Flow of funds: sources of funds = uses of funds (endogenous
money)
• Re-theorising money and finance within economic
geography
– Taking history and institutions seriously
– Theorizing spatial aspects of the monetary-financial system
Back to the future:
Elements of
integrating Lösch and
Isard
Lösch’s monetary theory – I
• Fragments of a monetary approach to regional BoP
adjustment (Eucken’s legacy):
– “Die Lehre vom Transfer – neu gefaßt” (JNS, 1941);
– Die räumliche Ordnung der Wirtschaft (1940, 1944);
– “Theorie der Währung” (WWA, 1949)
• Monetary-financial arrangements matter for space-economy
– “Geldtheoretischer Systemgedanke”, importance of capital flows
throughout the urban hierarchy
– Functional and institutional variation as influential pathway for real-
financial linkages (e.g. regional version of “transfer problem”).
• Money and credit are fundamentally hierarchical in nature
– All money is credit money in a hybrid system with public and private
money (“inside” vs “outside” money)
– Lösch’s spatial system contains traces of a ‘old German credit view’,
proto-Keynesians (Hahn, Lautenbach, and Neisser).
Lösch’s monetary theory – II
• “Theorie der Währung” (1949) as fragments of a “spatial
credit theory of money”
– Analysis based on monetary aspects of transfer problem with
cash and bank money in a hierarchical monetary order.
– Elements of microfoundations (proto-”New Monetary Economics”).
– Primary focus on spatial effects (distance and distribution in space)
of movements of the purchasing power and of commodities and
prices.
– In absence of world currency, second part introduces partial
currencies and thus gradually approaches the most complicated
reality, proceeding from a partial currency, which is produced at a
certain cost, to bank and cheque money.
– Overall focus of discussion is distribution in space with respect to
price level movements and price fluctuation.
“Economics, not geometry”
Source:Lösch(1940)
“Economics, not geometry”
Sources: Lösch Archiv, Heidenheim; Walter Eucken Archiv,
Schiller Universität, Jena
Regional flow of funds
Lösch’s early vizualization of the spatial flow of funds across Federal
Reserve Districts (via the Interdistrict Settlement Account) ...
Regional flow of funds
... as a precursor to GEOFRED!
Regional flow of funds
Source: Isard (1960)
Regional flow of funds
Source: Eichengreen et al. (2015)
Regional flow of funds
Source: Westermann
and Steinkamp (2018)
“Was it all in Lösch?”
• “Ohlin’s dream” (1933)
1. Theory of international trade consistent with modern price theory
(not labour theory of value)
2. Situate trade theory within a General Theory of Localization
3. Analyze domestic and international factor movements
4. Describe mechanism of international trade variation and
international capital movements (i.e. shifts in purchasing power
and real FX rate as part of trade theory)
• Isard’s (1956) related dream (includes monetary aspects)
• Beyond Krugman’s (1995) critique of the German tradition
of spatial economics
– To what extent does Lösch anticipate (at least in principle) where
Krugman falls short?
Isard’s spatial “accounting view”
• Distinction between uses of the means of finance:
– E.g. productive credit (nonfinancial businesses) vs. consumptive
credit (households)
• Distinction between changes in flows and changes in stocks
– E.g. between income flows and wealth stocks, or between credit
flows and the stock of debt which they cause
• Distinction between the effects of assets and the effects of
liabilities:
– E.g. net capital flows vs. gross financing flows
• Isard’s “accounting view” is a prominent element of Methods
of Regional Analysis (1960), but disappears without trace
from latest version
Money flows across space
Source: Isard (1960)
Outlook
and
future research
Towards a “spatial credit view”
• “Holy Grail” of post-crisis economics to integrate real
economy with monetary-financial economy (cf. “Ohlin’s
dream”)
• Three major, interrelated accounting statements at frontier
of quantitative economic analysis,
– National income and product accounts (NIPA)
– The input–output tableaux, (I/O),
– Flow-of-funds accounts (FF)
• Complementing standard I/O relationships with monetary
stock-flow data
– Rise of post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent (PK-SFC) models, but
no regional perspectives!
Towards a “spatial credit view”
Source: Bieri (2017a)
Central bank Gold, monetary base
Commercial banks Deposits Households,
consumers
Firms,
producers
Government
Goods, services
Wages, salaries
Public
expenditures
Taxes
Money, credit (funding flows)
Interest payments, savings (asset flows)
Private sector, NDFIs Securities
Hierarchyofmoney
Credit subsidies
Banking
Shadow
banking
Financial sector
Use Source
Ifin Sfin
Afin Lfin
Households
Use Source
Ih Sh
Ah Lh
Firms
Use Source
If Sf
Af Lf
Government
Use Source
Ig Sg
Ag Lg
for each sector, Ii + Ai = Si + Li such that:
Surplus Si - Ii = Ai - Li : non-financial sources  net financial savings Money outflow Ai - Li > 0
Deficit Li - Ai = Ii - Si : financial sources  product expenditures Money inflow Li - Ai > 0
Real transactions
Financial transactions
Price level of financial assets
Price level of current output
Spatial flow of funds view
Source: Bieri (2017a)
Regulatory-spatial dialectic
Source: Bieri (2017b)
Financial functions by spatial effect
Financial
integration
Financial
agglomeration
Suburbanisation
Monetary hierarchy
Central bank Payment system,
monetary policy
Transfer of
resources
Funding,
transfer of
resources
Depository institutions Funding,
transfer of
resources
Information flow Funding,
information flow
Outside of regulatory
perimeter:
NDFIs, market-based
intermediation
Information flow Risk management Funding
Beyond the “triple coincidence”
• Traditional “triple coincidence” in international finance
1. Capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment
decisions (net flows)
2. GDP boundary defines decision-making unit
3. GDP boundary defines currency area
• 3 key elements of the Lösch-Isard challenge
– Capital flows as financing flows (gross flows)
– Economic region defines decision-making unit; monetary aspects of
the regional balance of payments (cf. “The Balance of Payments of
Small Area as an Analytical Tool”, Stolper & Tiebout [1954])
– Nature of currency area defines (spatial) transmission of shock from
unilateral transfer
Beyond the “triple coincidence”
Source: Avdjiev et al. (2016)
Beyond the “triple coincidence”
Source: Avdjiev et al. (2016)
Notes: Metro area extrusions are proportional to total losses from FDIC-supervised depository institutions from 2007—
2014 as a percentage of metropolitan GDP. Area shading reflects the total number of failed institutions per metro area
(light grey: 1-5 failures, black: 20-59 failures). Source: Bieri (2017b)
Geography of banking failures
Notes: Metro area extrusions are proportional to cumulative borrowing by depository institutions via the Federal
Reserve’s Discount Window from 2010—2012 as a percentage of metropolitan GDP. Area shading reflects the average
loan-to-value ratio for banks (credit outstanding as share to total collateral pledged) per metro area (ranging from light
grey: 3-5% LTV to black: 70-85% LTV). Source: Bieri (2017b)
Geography of liquidity strains
The geography of regulatory arbitrage
Notes: Extrusions are proportional to the volume of loan sales/securitisation as a percentage of MSA GDP. Area shading
reflects the relative share of private label securitisation by NDFIs (ranging from dark grey: 40-50% to dark red: 95-99%).
Source: Author’s calculations from HMDA microdata, BEA and Census Bureau data. Source: Bieri (2017b)
GSE loan sales by banks, 2006. Private loan sales by NDFIs, 2006.
Regulatory-space dialectic
Source: Bieri (2017b)
REFERENCES – I
Avdjiev, S, McCauley, R.N. and Shin, H.S. (2016): “Breaking Free of the Triple Coincidence in International Finance,” Economic Policy,
31: 409–451.
BCBS (2018): “Sound Practices: Implications of FinTech Developments for Banks and Bank Supervisors,” Consultative Document,
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland.
Bieri, D S. (2009): “Financial Stability, the Basel Process and the New Geography of Regulation.” Cambridge Journal of Regions,
Economy and Society, 2(2): 303–331.
Bieri, D.S. (2017a): “Back to the Future: Lösch, Isard, and the Role of Money and Credit in the Space-Economy,” in Regional Research
Frontiers: Innovations, Regional Growth and Migration, ed. by P. V. Schaefer, and R. Jackson. Advances in Spatial Science,
Cham, Switzerland: Springer International: 217–241.
Bieri (2017b): “Regulatory Space and the Flow of Funds across the Hierarchy of Money,” in Handbook of the Geographies of Money
and Finance, ed. by R.L. Martin, and J. Pollard. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar: pp. 373—414.
Bieri, D.S., Franzi, S. and Simundza, D. (2018): “Regulatory Networks in the US Blockchain Ecosystem,” GFURR Working Paper,
Global Forum on Urban & Regional Resilience, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA.
Braudel, F. (1977): Afterthoughts on Material Culture and Capitalism, Baltimore and London: John Hopkins University Press.
Copeland, M.A. (1952): A Study of Moneyflows in the United States. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Dixon, A.D. (2011): “Variegated Capitalism and the Geography of Finance: Towards A Common Agenda,” Progress in Human
Geography, 35(2):193–210.
Engelen, E. (2012): “Crisis in Space: Ruminations on the Unevenness of Financialization and its Geographical Implications,” in The
Wiley-Blackwell Companion to Economic Geography, ed. by T. Barnes, J. Peck and E. Sheppard, Chichester, UK: John Wiley &
Sons, pp. 247–257.
Eichengreen, B., Mehl, A.J., Chitu, L. and Richardson, G. (2015): ”Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks, 1913–1960 as
Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate,” Journal of Economic History, 75(3): 621–659.
Harvey, D. (1985): The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization, Baltimore: John Hopkins
University Press.
Harvey, D. (2017): Marx, Capital and the Madness of Economic Reason, London: Profile Books.
Isard, W. (1956): Location and Space-Economy: A General Theory Relating to Industrial Location, Market Areas, Land Use, Trade, and
Urban Structure. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Isard, W. (1960): Methods of Regional Analysis. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Krugman, P.R. (1995): Development, Geography and Economic Theory, The Ohlin Lectures, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
REFERENCES – II
Lee, R, Clark, G.L., Pollard, J. and Leyshon, A. (2009): “The Remit of Financial Geography—Before and After the Crisis,” Journal of
Economic Geography, 9(6): 723 – 747.
Lösch, A. (1940): Die räumliche Ordnung der Wirtschaft: Eine Untersuchung über Standort, Wirtschaftsgebiete und internationalen
Handel . Jena: Gustav Fischer.
Lösch, A. (1940): Geographie des Zinses. Die Bank, 33:24–28.
Lösch, A. (1941): “Die Lehre vom Transfer – neu gefaßt.” in von Zwiedineck-Sündenhorst, O. and Albrecht, G. (Eds.) Abhandlungen
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jena: Gustav Fischer, Band 154: 385—402.
Lösch, A. (1949): “Theorie der Währung: Ein Fragment,“ Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 62: 35–88.
Lösch, A. (1954): The Economics of Location, New Haven: Yale University Press.
Minsky, H.P. (1967): “Financial Intermediation in the Money and Capital Markets,” in Issues in Banking and Monetary Analysis, ed. by
G. Pontecorvo, R.P. Shay and A.G. Hart. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston: 33–56.
Minsky, H.P. (1992): “On the Non-Neutrality of Money,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 18(1): 77–82.
Minsky, H.P. (2008): Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New York: McGraw Hill.
O’Brien, R. and Keith, A. (2009): “The Geography of Finance: After the Storm,” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economics and Society,
2(2): 245–265.
Ohlin, B. (1933): Interregional and International Trade, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Peck, J.A. and Theodore, N. (2007): “Variegated Capitalism,” Progress in Human Geography, 31(6): 731–772.
Sheppard, E. and Barnes, T.J. (1990): The Capitalist Space Economy: Geographical Analysis after Ricardo, Marx and Sraffa, London:
Unwin Hyman.
Simmel, G. (1930): Die Philosophie des Geldes, München and Leipzig: Duncker und Humblot.
Sokol, M. (2013): “Towards a ‘Newer' Economic Geography? Injecting Finance and Financialisation into Economic Geographies,”
Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economics and Society, 6(3): 501–515.
Sokol, M. (2017): “Financialisation, Financial Chains and Uneven Geographical Development: Towards a Research Agenda,” Research
in International Business and Finance, 39: 678–685.
Wagemann, E. (1930): Economic Rhythm: A Theory of Business Cycles. 1st ed. New York, NY: McGraw Hill.
Wagemann, E. (1940): Wo kommt das viele Geld her? Geldschöpfung und Finanzlenkung im Kriege. Düsseldorf: Völkischer Verlag
GmbH.
Westermann, F. and Steinkamp, S. (2018): Euro Crisis Monitor, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrück University.

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Lost in Monetary Space? Economic Geographies of Money and Finance without Macrofoundations

  • 1. Lost in Monetary Space? Economic Geographies of Money and Finance without Macrofoundations Prof. Dr. David Bieri School of Public & International Affairs, Department of Economics, Global Forum on Urban & Regional Resilience, VIRGINIA TECH, Blacksburg, USA | david-bieri.com | @space_economy Universität zu Köln 5th Global Conference on Economic Geography – July 2018
  • 2. Money and metropolis “The metropolis has always been the seat of the money economy.” — Georg Simmel (Die Philosophie des Geldes, 1930) “The truth is that money and cities have always been a part of daily routine, yet they are present in the modern world as well. Money and cities are also multipliers, capable of adapting to change and helping to bring about it. One might say that cities and money created modernity; but conversely, […] modernity—the changing mass of men's lives— promoted the expansion of money and led to the growing tyranny of the cities. Cities and money are at one and the same time motors and indicators; they provoke and indicate change.” — Fernand Braudel (Afterthoughts on Material Culture and Capitalism, 1977) “Capitalism is essentially a financial system, and the peculiar behavioral attributes of a capitalist economy center around the impact of finance upon system behavior." — Hyman Minsky (Issues in Banking and Monetary Analysis,1967)
  • 3. Colonial settlement, ("Isolierter Staat") Emergent central place ("merchant republic") Core-periphery contours, emergent urban hierarchy First wave of suburbanisation, city restructuring ("Streetcar suburbs") Economic growth and a new urban form (“Rise of the monocentric city") Suburbanization Spatial sorting and the rise of the polycentric city Global cities (from "Edge cities" to "Boomburbs") Negligible regulation Increasing regulator, rise of fiscal federalism Strong (direct): Manager, progressive regulatory state (Anti- trust) Strong (indirect 1): Partner, facilitator Strong (indirect 2): "Too big to fail“, re- articulation of regulatory state Weak (direct): Deregulation, “Washington Consensus” URBAN HIERARCHY REGULATION Mutual fund (1774, NL); Inflation-linked bond (1780, USA) Modern mutual fund (1924, USA) VC industry (1940s, USA) Hedge fund (1949, USA) LBOs (1955, USA) ATM (1967, UK) MBS (1970, USA) Black-Scholes (1973, USA) Pre-1800s: Stock exchange, insurance company, central bank ETF (1993, CA) CDS (1994, USA) Algorithmic, HFT >50% of all trades (2012) FINANCIAL INNOVATION Financialisation Money and metropolis Bimetallism Gold standard 1: Fixed exchange rates, free banking Gold standard 2: Specie standard, fixed exchange rates, central banking Gold standard 3: Gold exchange standard, Interwar period Pre-convertible Bretton Woods Convertible Bretton Woods Post-Bretton Woods 1: Managed float Post-Bretton Woods 2: Free floating Stage 1: Deposit taking only Stage 2: Bank liabilities as means of payment Stage 3: Inter-bank lending, collective credit expansion Stage 4: Central bank as "lender of last resort", endogenous bank reserves Stage 5: Liability management with banks seeking both lending opportunities and deposits Stage 6: Securitization, off-balance sheet credit creation Stage 7: Central bank as the "dealer of last resort", quantitative easing and "monetization" of fiscal policy MONETATRY REGIME BANKING DEVELOPMENT Blockchains (2010s)
  • 5. Ongoing “Methodenstreit” over space • Uneasy historical relationship between spatial economics and economic geography • Contemporary dominance of Anglophone genealogy • Yet “hysterisis” and “path-dependence” also characteristic of heterodox origins story: 1. “Raumwirtschaftslehre” (von Thünen) vs. “Handelsgeographie”, “Wirtschaftsgeographie” (Jannasch, Hettner, Waibel). 2. Spatial turn of empiricial business cycle theory (Lösch) 3. Regional science, new urban economics and the post-war quantitative turn (Isard) 4. Revival of political economic geography (regulation theory, Harvey) 5. New Economic Geography and “economic imperialism” (Krugman)
  • 6. “Walrasian” bifurcation? • After a “glorious half century”, economic geography as a post-war scientific project is at a historic cross-roads. • Dialogue between regional scientists, urban economists and economic geographers increasingly polarised/siloed. – Regional science, NEG and “new neoclassical urban economics” [NNUE] have enshrined classical dichotomy, micro-economic “rigor”. – Economic geography is steeped Marxian political economy (but largely without “monetary content”, e.g. circuitist approach to money and credit or MELT). • Despite post-crisis surge, financial and monetary geographies do not embrace monetary theory. – Aspatiality of “monetary Walrasianism” (Hahn problem) – Focus on accumulation: Spatial “money muddles”, “money mischief” and “monetary controversies”
  • 7. Tensions in spatial analysis Money and credit Space economy “Raumwirtschaft” Economic order and distribution “Wirtschaftsformen” Lösch Isard
  • 8. The region, distribution, and money • German Political Economy and the “Systemgedanke” – The “economic dialectics of enlightenment”: Liberty, rationality, and economic order (Hegel vs Mill) – August Lösch’s monetary theory and its implications for the spatial non-neutrality of money • The distributional consequences of the macrofoundations of the monetary-financial order: – Spatial variation of interest rates as monetary transmission channel (e.g. administered prices of CB, GSEs vs local interest rates) – Institutional design of money matters (Lutz’s “Geldverfassung”; Buchanan’s “Constitutionalization of Money”) – Contemporary relevance (FRB Interdistrict Settlement Accounts, “TARGET2 balances”, Chicago Plan [100% Reserve Money], FinTech)
  • 9. The microfoundations revolution • Search for “micromotives” of “macrobehaviour” at heart of key movement in (empirical) social sciences since 1930s • Methodological individualism as research paradigm – Economics: “Microfoundations” (from Keynes to the rational expectations revolution of Lucas, and Schelling’s strategic interaction, behavioural economics) – Sociology: “Economic action and social structure” (from Weber, Parsons to Granovetter, Coleman)  What can geographers contribute to the challenge of the aggregation problem?
  • 10. Lost in “monetary space”? • The remit of post-crisis financial geography – Geographies of financialization, inequality (Lee et al. 2009) – Geographies of finance and the VoC literature (Peck and Theodore 2007; Dixon 2011; Engelen 2012) • The end of geography after the end of the “end of geography”? – What is geographical about the new questions? – No coherent theoretical framework on “spatialities of credit–debt” (Sokol 2013, 2017) • Kaleckian conundrum? “Confusing stocks with flows”: – Marxian and other classical approaches focus on accumulation – Spatial re-switching of capital (Harvey’s “spatial fix”); Sheppard and Barnes’ (1990) The Capitalist Space Economy
  • 11. “The end of geography”, again? Source: O’Brian & Keith (2009) 2018: FinTech, RegTech e.g. BCSB (2018), Bieri, Franzi and Simundza (2018)
  • 12. Money matters: What are the questions?
  • 13. What are the (monetary) questions? • What is money? – Medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value • What causes money to be established? – Barter economy (monetary Walrasianism) vs. “endogenous money” • What assets are likely to be used as money (narrow money and near-money substitutes) – Commodity money, fiat money, credit money (chartallism, metallism) – Token money, uncovered bank deposits, money market certificates • What are the private and social cost-benefits of money? – Creditworthiness, frictions and risk premia • What are the effects of changes in the quantity of money? • How much control over money supply? – Endogenous money, “horizontalism”, base-multiplier “in reverse”
  • 14. Themes in post-war monetary theory • The neutrality of money – Classical dichotomy – Integration of price theory and value theory (Patinkin) • Theories of demand for money (velocity of circulation and income) – Liquidity preference theory (Hansen, Tobin) – Restatement of the Quantity Theory (Friedman) – Credit theory of money (Gurley and Shaw) • Theories of money supply, monetary control, and monetary dynamics (inflation: SR vs LR Phillips curve and NAIRU) • Monetary policy • Theories of interest – Real vs. nominal rates
  • 15. Monetary themes in regional analysis • Urbanisation and locational economies of financial industry – Regional financial centres, agglomeration economies of information, deposit concentration • Finance-growth nexus of regional development • Regional transmission mechanism of monetary policy – Regional economic adjustment – Interest rate differentials, structure of financial intermediation – Regional flow-of-funds (incl. reserve flows) • Regional balance of payments – Classical “transfer problem” vs. monetary approach to BoP • Geography of money and inflation – Regional COLI differentials, spatial PPP – Optimal currency areas
  • 16. Beyond Harvey’s hegemony • Little monetary content of contemporary regional studies, economic geography, yet active research on financialisation. • Marxian and other classical approaches focus on accumulation • David Harvey’s (1982, 2017) faulty macro-economic premises: – Debt as lack of money rather than money itself – Fiscal policy as operationally dependent on bond sales (governments controlled by bondholders) – “Quantitative Easing” as increase of “money supply” instead of straight asset swap – No distinction between the monetary powers of sovereign governments and IFIs (BIS, IMF, WB) – Keynesianism as Samuelsonian neoclassical synthesis (Hicks-Hansen IS/LM), culminating with Paul Krugman
  • 17. Monetary macrofoundations • Revisiting Peck and Theodore (2007) – “Economic geography’s cautious stance vis-a-vis macro-institutional and system-centric analysis” • Money as social relation, quintessential “macrofoundation”: – Absence of money in the Walrasian general equilibrium system. – Distributional impacts of (international) monetary arrangements, monetary policy – Political economy of monetary governance, regulation • Monetary ideas and institutions matter (“money interest” vs. “public interest”)  How does the political economy of money matter for the space-economy?
  • 18. More macrofoundations • Business cycles across different economic paradigms: – Marxian: M – C – M’ – Keynesian: Y = C + I + G + (X-M) – Monetarist: PY = MV (Quantity Theory) – Flow of funds: sources of funds = uses of funds (endogenous money) • Re-theorising money and finance within economic geography – Taking history and institutions seriously – Theorizing spatial aspects of the monetary-financial system
  • 19. Back to the future: Elements of integrating Lösch and Isard
  • 20. Lösch’s monetary theory – I • Fragments of a monetary approach to regional BoP adjustment (Eucken’s legacy): – “Die Lehre vom Transfer – neu gefaßt” (JNS, 1941); – Die räumliche Ordnung der Wirtschaft (1940, 1944); – “Theorie der Währung” (WWA, 1949) • Monetary-financial arrangements matter for space-economy – “Geldtheoretischer Systemgedanke”, importance of capital flows throughout the urban hierarchy – Functional and institutional variation as influential pathway for real- financial linkages (e.g. regional version of “transfer problem”). • Money and credit are fundamentally hierarchical in nature – All money is credit money in a hybrid system with public and private money (“inside” vs “outside” money) – Lösch’s spatial system contains traces of a ‘old German credit view’, proto-Keynesians (Hahn, Lautenbach, and Neisser).
  • 21. Lösch’s monetary theory – II • “Theorie der Währung” (1949) as fragments of a “spatial credit theory of money” – Analysis based on monetary aspects of transfer problem with cash and bank money in a hierarchical monetary order. – Elements of microfoundations (proto-”New Monetary Economics”). – Primary focus on spatial effects (distance and distribution in space) of movements of the purchasing power and of commodities and prices. – In absence of world currency, second part introduces partial currencies and thus gradually approaches the most complicated reality, proceeding from a partial currency, which is produced at a certain cost, to bank and cheque money. – Overall focus of discussion is distribution in space with respect to price level movements and price fluctuation.
  • 23. “Economics, not geometry” Sources: Lösch Archiv, Heidenheim; Walter Eucken Archiv, Schiller Universität, Jena
  • 24. Regional flow of funds Lösch’s early vizualization of the spatial flow of funds across Federal Reserve Districts (via the Interdistrict Settlement Account) ...
  • 25. Regional flow of funds ... as a precursor to GEOFRED!
  • 26. Regional flow of funds Source: Isard (1960)
  • 27. Regional flow of funds Source: Eichengreen et al. (2015)
  • 28. Regional flow of funds Source: Westermann and Steinkamp (2018)
  • 29. “Was it all in Lösch?” • “Ohlin’s dream” (1933) 1. Theory of international trade consistent with modern price theory (not labour theory of value) 2. Situate trade theory within a General Theory of Localization 3. Analyze domestic and international factor movements 4. Describe mechanism of international trade variation and international capital movements (i.e. shifts in purchasing power and real FX rate as part of trade theory) • Isard’s (1956) related dream (includes monetary aspects) • Beyond Krugman’s (1995) critique of the German tradition of spatial economics – To what extent does Lösch anticipate (at least in principle) where Krugman falls short?
  • 30. Isard’s spatial “accounting view” • Distinction between uses of the means of finance: – E.g. productive credit (nonfinancial businesses) vs. consumptive credit (households) • Distinction between changes in flows and changes in stocks – E.g. between income flows and wealth stocks, or between credit flows and the stock of debt which they cause • Distinction between the effects of assets and the effects of liabilities: – E.g. net capital flows vs. gross financing flows • Isard’s “accounting view” is a prominent element of Methods of Regional Analysis (1960), but disappears without trace from latest version
  • 31. Money flows across space Source: Isard (1960)
  • 33. Towards a “spatial credit view” • “Holy Grail” of post-crisis economics to integrate real economy with monetary-financial economy (cf. “Ohlin’s dream”) • Three major, interrelated accounting statements at frontier of quantitative economic analysis, – National income and product accounts (NIPA) – The input–output tableaux, (I/O), – Flow-of-funds accounts (FF) • Complementing standard I/O relationships with monetary stock-flow data – Rise of post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent (PK-SFC) models, but no regional perspectives!
  • 34. Towards a “spatial credit view” Source: Bieri (2017a)
  • 35. Central bank Gold, monetary base Commercial banks Deposits Households, consumers Firms, producers Government Goods, services Wages, salaries Public expenditures Taxes Money, credit (funding flows) Interest payments, savings (asset flows) Private sector, NDFIs Securities Hierarchyofmoney Credit subsidies Banking Shadow banking Financial sector Use Source Ifin Sfin Afin Lfin Households Use Source Ih Sh Ah Lh Firms Use Source If Sf Af Lf Government Use Source Ig Sg Ag Lg for each sector, Ii + Ai = Si + Li such that: Surplus Si - Ii = Ai - Li : non-financial sources  net financial savings Money outflow Ai - Li > 0 Deficit Li - Ai = Ii - Si : financial sources  product expenditures Money inflow Li - Ai > 0 Real transactions Financial transactions Price level of financial assets Price level of current output Spatial flow of funds view Source: Bieri (2017a)
  • 36. Regulatory-spatial dialectic Source: Bieri (2017b) Financial functions by spatial effect Financial integration Financial agglomeration Suburbanisation Monetary hierarchy Central bank Payment system, monetary policy Transfer of resources Funding, transfer of resources Depository institutions Funding, transfer of resources Information flow Funding, information flow Outside of regulatory perimeter: NDFIs, market-based intermediation Information flow Risk management Funding
  • 37. Beyond the “triple coincidence” • Traditional “triple coincidence” in international finance 1. Capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions (net flows) 2. GDP boundary defines decision-making unit 3. GDP boundary defines currency area • 3 key elements of the Lösch-Isard challenge – Capital flows as financing flows (gross flows) – Economic region defines decision-making unit; monetary aspects of the regional balance of payments (cf. “The Balance of Payments of Small Area as an Analytical Tool”, Stolper & Tiebout [1954]) – Nature of currency area defines (spatial) transmission of shock from unilateral transfer
  • 38. Beyond the “triple coincidence” Source: Avdjiev et al. (2016)
  • 39. Beyond the “triple coincidence” Source: Avdjiev et al. (2016)
  • 40. Notes: Metro area extrusions are proportional to total losses from FDIC-supervised depository institutions from 2007— 2014 as a percentage of metropolitan GDP. Area shading reflects the total number of failed institutions per metro area (light grey: 1-5 failures, black: 20-59 failures). Source: Bieri (2017b) Geography of banking failures
  • 41. Notes: Metro area extrusions are proportional to cumulative borrowing by depository institutions via the Federal Reserve’s Discount Window from 2010—2012 as a percentage of metropolitan GDP. Area shading reflects the average loan-to-value ratio for banks (credit outstanding as share to total collateral pledged) per metro area (ranging from light grey: 3-5% LTV to black: 70-85% LTV). Source: Bieri (2017b) Geography of liquidity strains
  • 42. The geography of regulatory arbitrage Notes: Extrusions are proportional to the volume of loan sales/securitisation as a percentage of MSA GDP. Area shading reflects the relative share of private label securitisation by NDFIs (ranging from dark grey: 40-50% to dark red: 95-99%). Source: Author’s calculations from HMDA microdata, BEA and Census Bureau data. Source: Bieri (2017b) GSE loan sales by banks, 2006. Private loan sales by NDFIs, 2006.
  • 44. REFERENCES – I Avdjiev, S, McCauley, R.N. and Shin, H.S. (2016): “Breaking Free of the Triple Coincidence in International Finance,” Economic Policy, 31: 409–451. BCBS (2018): “Sound Practices: Implications of FinTech Developments for Banks and Bank Supervisors,” Consultative Document, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland. Bieri, D S. (2009): “Financial Stability, the Basel Process and the New Geography of Regulation.” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2(2): 303–331. Bieri, D.S. (2017a): “Back to the Future: Lösch, Isard, and the Role of Money and Credit in the Space-Economy,” in Regional Research Frontiers: Innovations, Regional Growth and Migration, ed. by P. V. Schaefer, and R. Jackson. Advances in Spatial Science, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International: 217–241. Bieri (2017b): “Regulatory Space and the Flow of Funds across the Hierarchy of Money,” in Handbook of the Geographies of Money and Finance, ed. by R.L. Martin, and J. Pollard. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar: pp. 373—414. Bieri, D.S., Franzi, S. and Simundza, D. (2018): “Regulatory Networks in the US Blockchain Ecosystem,” GFURR Working Paper, Global Forum on Urban & Regional Resilience, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA. Braudel, F. (1977): Afterthoughts on Material Culture and Capitalism, Baltimore and London: John Hopkins University Press. Copeland, M.A. (1952): A Study of Moneyflows in the United States. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Dixon, A.D. (2011): “Variegated Capitalism and the Geography of Finance: Towards A Common Agenda,” Progress in Human Geography, 35(2):193–210. Engelen, E. (2012): “Crisis in Space: Ruminations on the Unevenness of Financialization and its Geographical Implications,” in The Wiley-Blackwell Companion to Economic Geography, ed. by T. Barnes, J. Peck and E. Sheppard, Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, pp. 247–257. Eichengreen, B., Mehl, A.J., Chitu, L. and Richardson, G. (2015): ”Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks, 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate,” Journal of Economic History, 75(3): 621–659. Harvey, D. (1985): The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Harvey, D. (2017): Marx, Capital and the Madness of Economic Reason, London: Profile Books. Isard, W. (1956): Location and Space-Economy: A General Theory Relating to Industrial Location, Market Areas, Land Use, Trade, and Urban Structure. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Isard, W. (1960): Methods of Regional Analysis. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Krugman, P.R. (1995): Development, Geography and Economic Theory, The Ohlin Lectures, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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