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LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION COUNCIL
CONSEIL DE L’INFORMATION SUR LE MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL
Making Sense of
the Future of Work
TonyBonen
DirectorofResearch,Data andAnalytics
Building Connections
27 Feburary2019
LMIC’s Mission
EmpowerCanadians with timely and reliable labour market information and insights in an
engaging way that supportstheir decision-making process
Future of WorkAnnotatedBibliography
A “living document” summarizes Canadian and International research reports
Version2.1released
February
Theme Canada-focused reports
International
reports
FoW Drivers
Technological Change (Automation, AI, etc.) 59% 83%
Demographic Change (e.g., aging) 52% 39%
Climate Change 4% 22%
Type of Analysis
Quantitative analysis 78% 65%
Skills-specific projections 11% 26%
Level of Analysis
National-level forecasts 56%
Provincial-level forecasts 22%
Sub-provincial-level forecasts 7%
Total Number of Reports 27 23
The Future of Work: What doweknow?
1. Is technology impacting labour markets more rapidly/profoundly thanin previous eras?
2. Is AI/automation the most important driver of recent labour market trends?
3. Is upskillingthe key to “future proofing” the Canadianworkforce?
Industrial Revolutionsin perspective
Name Period Representative Technology Major Labour Market Impact
1st The Industrial
Revolution
1760-1830s Steam engine, machine tools, paper
machine, cotton gin, cement
Creation of factories, labour revolts,
major social changes (esp. land
ownership)
2nd Technological
Revolution
1870-1914 Light bulb, telegraph, cars,
water/gas/sewage systems
Major increases in productivity,
unstable (falling) prices, spells of mass
unemployment
3rd Digital
Revolution
1960/70s-present Computer, Internet, iPhone New high skilled jobs, decline in
administrative/support staff
4th The Robots are
Coming
(tentative)
2010s-present Robotics, AI, Internet of Things ?
ChangingEmploymentand GDP shares in 3 Sectors
Conclusion
• FoW analysesare challengingand canbe technicallycomplex …
but more detailed research is needed (e.g., geography, multiple drivers and scenarios)
• Developing skills-focusededucation and training will continue to be important …
but rapidjob loss remains possible and will need to be addressed by responsive policy tools

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LMIC - FoW, AI and Automation

  • 1. LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION COUNCIL CONSEIL DE L’INFORMATION SUR LE MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL Making Sense of the Future of Work TonyBonen DirectorofResearch,Data andAnalytics Building Connections 27 Feburary2019
  • 2. LMIC’s Mission EmpowerCanadians with timely and reliable labour market information and insights in an engaging way that supportstheir decision-making process
  • 3. Future of WorkAnnotatedBibliography A “living document” summarizes Canadian and International research reports Version2.1released February Theme Canada-focused reports International reports FoW Drivers Technological Change (Automation, AI, etc.) 59% 83% Demographic Change (e.g., aging) 52% 39% Climate Change 4% 22% Type of Analysis Quantitative analysis 78% 65% Skills-specific projections 11% 26% Level of Analysis National-level forecasts 56% Provincial-level forecasts 22% Sub-provincial-level forecasts 7% Total Number of Reports 27 23
  • 4. The Future of Work: What doweknow? 1. Is technology impacting labour markets more rapidly/profoundly thanin previous eras? 2. Is AI/automation the most important driver of recent labour market trends? 3. Is upskillingthe key to “future proofing” the Canadianworkforce?
  • 5. Industrial Revolutionsin perspective Name Period Representative Technology Major Labour Market Impact 1st The Industrial Revolution 1760-1830s Steam engine, machine tools, paper machine, cotton gin, cement Creation of factories, labour revolts, major social changes (esp. land ownership) 2nd Technological Revolution 1870-1914 Light bulb, telegraph, cars, water/gas/sewage systems Major increases in productivity, unstable (falling) prices, spells of mass unemployment 3rd Digital Revolution 1960/70s-present Computer, Internet, iPhone New high skilled jobs, decline in administrative/support staff 4th The Robots are Coming (tentative) 2010s-present Robotics, AI, Internet of Things ?
  • 7. Conclusion • FoW analysesare challengingand canbe technicallycomplex … but more detailed research is needed (e.g., geography, multiple drivers and scenarios) • Developing skills-focusededucation and training will continue to be important … but rapidjob loss remains possible and will need to be addressed by responsive policy tools

Editor's Notes

  1. Health care: 1.4 million (1997) to 2.0 million (2010) to 2.4 million (2018) Manufacturing: <2.0 million (1997) to 1.725 million (2010) to 1.713 million (2018) Prof, Scientific: 0.75 million (1997) to 1.2 million (2010) to 1.5 million (2018)