A precis of the article "Roads Less Travelled" (in press, Journal of Futures Studies), comparing four scenario methods.

1. Teaser Trailer

2. Coming
to a
Journal of Futures Studies
near you this spring....

3. “Roads Less Travelled”

4. Six plucky explorers...

5. Four paths to adventure...

6. What did they find
on their heroes’ journey?

7. Six plucky explorers:
• Joe Ballantyne, The Futures Company
• Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
• Neil MacDonald, Gondwana
Development Associates
• Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures
• Andy Stubbings, The Futures Company
• Victoria Ward, Sparknow

8. Four paths to adventure:
• Different methods, different output?
• Scenario cross (2X2 uncertainties)
• Causal layered analysis (post-structuralism)
• Manoa (turbulence)
• Scenario archetypes (images)
• Identical focus: future of civil society
• Identical feedstock*: Carnegie UK critical
issues database (project complete and in
public domain; used CLA in process)

9. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
by definition, one scenario
often keeps one foot grounded in
BAU/PTE, and others radically
“official view”; pushes detail
different worldviews;
towards symmetry around one
tight focus on changed
level, eg, national, or organisational;
character of civil society itself;
generates ‘policy speak’
cross-comparison simple
Difference
‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life
radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including
differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within
eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across
national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario;
consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

10. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
by definition, one scenario
often keeps one foot grounded in
BAU/PTE, and others radically
“official view”; pushes detail
different worldviews;
towards symmetry around one
tight focus on changed
level, eg, national, or organisational;
character of civil society itself;
generates ‘policy speak’
cross-comparison simple
‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life
radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including
differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within
eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across
national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario;
consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

11. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
by definition, one scenario
often keeps one foot grounded in
BAU/PTE, and others radically
“official view”; pushes detail
different worldviews;
towards symmetry around one
tight focus on changed
level, eg, national, or organisational;
character of civil society itself;
generates ‘policy speak’
cross-comparison simple
how different are the scenarios
from the present
and from each other?
‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life
radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including
differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within
eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across
national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario;
consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

12. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
based on different worldviews as
does not generate big
‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth
questions re: transformations
depends on array of
in deep structures
worldviews / archetypes on offer
Depth
digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep
worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a
works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic
many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

13. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
based on different worldviews as
does not generate big
‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth
questions re: transformations
depends on array of
in deep structures
worldviews / archetypes on offer
digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep
worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a
works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic
many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

14. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
based on different worldviews as
does not generate big
‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth
questions re: transformations
depends on array of
in deep structures
worldviews / archetypes on offer
how deeply do the scenarios
examine / question
underlying cultural structures?
digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep
worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a
works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic
many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

15. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“live” product more a chain of events only if process
snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview
usually added during write-up emerged to prominence
Development
strong development arcs emerging
describes futures of different
from impact cascades;
worldviews, not necessarily why
“gets closest to answering the
or how the worldviews changed
question of how the futures evolved”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

16. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“live” product more a chain of events only if process
snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview
usually added during write-up emerged to prominence
strong development arcs emerging
describes futures of different
from impact cascades;
worldviews, not necessarily why
“gets closest to answering the
or how the worldviews changed
question of how the futures evolved”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

17. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“live” product more a chain of events only if process
snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview
usually added during write-up emerged to prominence
to what extent does
the method help create a
narrative / development arc?
strong development arcs emerging
describes futures of different
from impact cascades;
worldviews, not necessarily why
“gets closest to answering the
or how the worldviews changed
question of how the futures evolved”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

18. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process;
distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well
“the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes;
problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static
details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)”
Participation
“witty and well referenced, quite
complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising”
clever”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

19. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process;
distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well
“the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes;
problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static
details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)”
“witty and well referenced, quite
complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising”
clever”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

20. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes
“dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process;
distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well
“the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes;
problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static
details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)”
what does the process feel
like as a participatory
experience / conversation?
“witty and well referenced, quite
complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising”
clever”
Causal Layered Analysis Manoa

21. Do different scenario
building methods generate
distinctively different output?

22. YES.