At SuperReturn International 2016, the world’s largest private equity & venture capital conference, John Gabbert discussed liquidity & returning capital. Including spotlights on global VC exit trends, IPO's, and European exits.
1. Liquidity & Returning Capital
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John Gabbert Founder & CEO
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2. THE PITCHBOOK PLATFORM
The financial information technology trusted by leading investors,
companies and advisors
21,860
LPs
94,438
Commitments
150,137
GPs/Investors
33,460
Funds
514,170
Performance
Data Lines
696,194
Portfolio
Companies
491,333
Transactions
124,748
Valuations
25,463
Advisory Firms
1,097,011
People
4. LPs have been optimistic on the VC asset
class, therefore fundraising benefits
Globa l VC fundraising
*Through 12/31/2015
$53B
$22B
$48B
392
318
393
363
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total capital raised ($B) U.S. ($B) Europe ($B) RoW ($B) Fund count
$53B
5. Lots of capital being invested…
but in fewer and bigger deals
Global VC de al flow
*Through 2/17/2016
$46B $35B
$99B
$21B
5,596
5,703
12,511
10,088
973 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capital invested ($B) U.S. ($B) Europe ($B) RoW ($B) Deal Count
$119B
6. $45.8B $42.2B
$59.3B
$99.4B
$119.0B
$44.3B $39.0B
$42.9B
$35.3B $38.7B
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total capital invested ($B) Total VC fund LP contributions ($B)
“Tourists” filling VC funding gap
Globa l VC fund contr ibutions vs . globa l VC ca pita l inve ste d
*Through 12/31/2015
Non-traditional VC investors
account for an increasing share
of VC $ spend (about 66%)
7. $0.03B $0.3B
$1.3B
$2.6B $1.2B
$4.8B $2.1B
$4.1B
$19.9B
$29.8B
1 4 7 7 8
24 19
26
86
113
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital Invested ($B) Deal count
68 US
31 Asia
12 Europe
2 ROW
=113
“Unicorn” rounds have skyrocketed
VC rounds va lue d ove r $ 1 billion
*Through 12/31/2015
$66.1B invested
across only 189
companies since
2006 (11% of $).
8. Big increase in seed rounds over last 5 yrs.
G loba l VC de a l count by ty pe
*Through 12/31/2015
528 1,144
4,027 3,921
2,870
3,368
3,785
5,311
5,747
4,777
1,700
2,099
2,585 2,843
2,441
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seed Early stage VC Later stage VC
9. Seed round valuations reach levels
previously seen at series A
Me dia n pre -money va luation ($ M) by s e r ie s
*Through 12/31/2015
$3.2
$4.8 $4.9 $5.5
$7.3 $6.7
$9.6
$12.7
$15.4
$22
$19
$26
$34
$42
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seed Series A Series B
11. 11,721
15,844
21,280
29,565
34,389
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2011-2015
2005-2010
Pre-2005
Year of
Investment
Explosion in # of funded companies require exits
at some point, big % not likely to find it
Globa l VC compa ny inve ntor y
*Through 12/31/2015
Nearly 11,000
companies with
backing for more than
5 years. ~23,000
more seeking exit in
the next 5 years
12. 1.5% 2.0% 3.2%
7.8%
21.7%
35.1%
49.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Under $5M $5M - $10M $10M - $20M $20M - $50M $50M - $75M $75M - $100M $100M+
Total VC Capital Raised
A glut of heavily funded companies will be
seeking public market exits
% of VC Ba cke d Cos to IPO by VC Ca pita l Ra is e d (2 0 0 6 -2 01 5)
*Through 12/31/2015
800+ co’s raised
$100M+ yet to be
exited.
850 462 co’s respectively
18. Top quartile exit valuations have steadily
increased over the decade
G loba l VC exit s ize qua r tile s
*Through 2/17/2016
$17.2
$14.4
$17.5 $13.6
$18.0
$49.3 $50.0
$54.0
$47.7 $50.0
$111.3
$120.3
$125.8 $125.0 $130.0
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25th percentile Median 75th percentile
19. European exits seem to be more capital
efficient in recent years
Me dia n exit va luation/ total ca pita l ra is ed by exit ye a r
*Through 12/31/2015
4.56x
2.13x
4.58x
3.91x
4.84x
3.27x
6.69x
6.29x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America Europe
Median unicorn: 5.67x
Last 4 years Ave. VC ownership at exit: 51%
20. 2014 returned record $54 billion to LPs,
2015 likely to be similar
Globa l VC fund ca s hflows
*Through 6/30/2015
$12B $13B $13B
$27B
$39B
$54B
$35B
-$15B
-$17B
-$30B
$5B
-$60
-$40
-$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Contributions ($B) Distributions ($B) Net Cashflow
21. Recent vintages’ IRRs are way up…
G loba l VC fund IRR qua r tiles
*Through 6/30/2015
-7.7%
1.0%
4.8%
6.6%2.3%
0.4%
8.9%
19.6% 18.4%
7.0% 6.3%
16.1%
34.9%
38.9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IRR 25th IRR Median IRR 75th
…however…
22. Recent vintages hold large majority of
value in current portfolio
Globa l VC fund avg. T V PI & RV PI % of T V PI
*Through 6/30/2015
1.15 1.13 1.56 1.50 1.33 1.15
26.4%
55.3%
62.8%
72.3%
89.9%
96.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0x
0.2x
0.4x
0.6x
0.8x
1.0x
1.2x
1.4x
1.6x
1.8x
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Avg. TVPI Avg. RVPI % of TVPI
23. 11,721
15,844
21,280
29,565
34,389
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2011-2015
2005-2010
Pre-2005
Year of
Investment
Explosion in # of funded companies require exits
at some point, big % not likely to find it
Globa l VC compa ny inve ntor y
*Through 12/31/2015
Nearly 11,000
companies with
backing for more than
5 years. ~23,000
more seeking exit in
the next 5 years
24. Top exiters 2014 & 2015 – European
HQd companies
Firm Name Exit Count
High-Tech Gründerfonds 12
Enterprise Ireland 9
Deutsche Telekom Strategic Invs. 8
KfW IPEX-Bank 8
Life Sciences Partners 8
Holtzbrinck Ventures 8
Vækstfonden 7
Tekes 7
Seventure Partners 7
Gimv 7
Almi Invest 7
Firm Name Exit Count
Scottish Enterprise 11
Enterprise Ireland 9
Verdane Capital 8
High-Tech Gründerfonds 8
CM-CIC Capital Privé 6
Albion Ventures 6
Seventure Partners, SEED Capital
Denmark, Kreos Capital, KfW IPEX-
Bank, Index Ventures, Draper Esprit,
Edmond de Rothschild Investment
Partners, Bonsai Venture Capital,
Amadeus Capital Partners, Acton
Capital Partners, Almi Invest
Tied at 5
2014 2015
25. Top exiters 2014 & 2015 – U.S. HQd
companies
Firm Name Exit Count
New Enterprise Associates 30
SV Angel 29
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers 29
Accel Partners 27
Y Combinator 25
GV 24
Techstars 22
Western Technology Investment 21
Battery Ventures 21
Greylock Partners 20
Bessemer Venture Partners 20
2014 2015
Firm Name Exit Count
SV Angel 31
New Enterprise Associates 25
500 Startups 25
Western Technology Investment 24
Y Combinator 19
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers 19
Intel Capital 19
Greylock Partners 19
Techstars, Sequoia Capital, Khosla
Ventures, Great Oaks Venture Capital
Tied at 15
27. Software companies consistently account
for over 1/3 of VC exits
Globa l VC exit count by industr y
*Through 12/31/2015
28.0% 35.2% 36.2% 34.3% 35.3%
11.6% 8.7% 9.8% 12.8% 12.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Commercial Svcs.
Consumer Goods & Rec.
Energy
Healthcare
IT Hardware
Media
Pharma & Biotech
Software
Other
28. SaaS and mobile models are driving
software exits for VCs
2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 6 YT D s oftwa re exits by ve r tica l
*Through 2/17/2016
45.6%
24.3%
5.8%
4.6%
4.5%
4.0%
3.1%2.9%
5.2%
SaaS
Mobile
Security
Marketing Tech
Big Data
FinTech
E-Commerce
AdTech
Other
Editor's Notes
2014 & 2015 fundraising levels are great.
Many smaller funds being raised => over 60% of funds raised are under $100m --- up from 40% in 2007
Run up. 20 up $, 20 down #
US 60 % of $, EU 12%, ROW 28%
VC funds are deploying a pretty steady amount of capital
The massive increases are coming from outside traditional VC funds
Mutual funds and PE such as:
T.Rowe
Goldman
Tiger global
Fidelity
KKR
2015 regional breakout:
68 U.S.
31 Asia
12 Europe
2 Middle East ironSource, Souq.com
596 total invested since 06
“age of the unicorn” – a few highly valued companies, raising ridiculous sums
Is this sustainable?
Seed vals are becoming what A vals used to be.
Raising an A round is more of a hurdle now
VCs expect more from companies looking to raise A round than in the past.
# in 50-75 range: 850
# in 75-100 range: 462
Lots of companies sitting in a position to be taken public
Distinct lack of IPOs last year, and this year. Markets are getting crushed in 2016 so far
What next?
Can the market support it?
Outlier in 4Q 2014 is WhatsApp for $21.8 Billion
% ownership by preferred stockholders at exit median:
2012: 48.9%
2013: 49.5%
2014: 53.0%
2015: 53.4%