Lessons from the Hungarian “Exception”

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George Kopits ICGFM Winter Conference “PFM in the 21st Century” Washington, December 5-7, 2011

Economy & Finance News & Politics

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Background Real GDP Growth Rate xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Broad fiscal trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Broad fiscal trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exception 1.0 (2001- 09) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Paradigm change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Paradigm change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Paradigm change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Paradigm change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exception 2.0 (since 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Implications for sovereign risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Implications: sovereign default risk premium

Conclusion: Lessons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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