Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation

SWINE SITUATION REPORT 2008 Prepared by: Lary Nel B. Abao, MBA Bureau of Animal Industry-Marketing Development Division

Table 1. Swine: Inventory by Classification and by Farm Type, as of January 1, 2006-2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

Figure 1. Distribution of Inventory by Classification, Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

Figure 2. Distribution of Inventory by Farm Type, Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

Table 2. Swine Top Regions, in terms of Inventory as of January 1, 2008 (no. of heads) ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

Table 3. Inventory Series by Age and By Quarter, 2006 – 2007 (Number of Head) P – Preliminary estimates Source: BAS

Table 4. SWINE: Total Farm Inventory, by Region, by Quarter, 2006-2007 ,[object Object],Source: BAS

Table 5. SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, 2005-2007 (in metric tons) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

Table 6. SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, by Region 2005-2007 (in metric tons) Source: BAS

Table 7. SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION, PHILIPPINES, 2005-2007(Number of live animals) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: BAS

II. Analysis of Feed Ingredients Prices Source: BAI-MDD

III. Analysis of Hog Commercial Mixed Feeds Prices Source: BAI-MDD Note: Only hog pre-starter mash is sold in 25-kg bags

Figure 6. Logistics Situation: Hogs (Live) Source: BAI-MDD; UNDP Study on Seed to Shelf HOG FARM P.72/kg P0.17/kg P12.42/kg P0.17/kg P2.31 P0.84/kg --- P18.65 Slaughter house • GSC Port • stevedoring • arastre Manila Port • stevedoring • arastre Includes • shipping • feeds • labor • shrinkage • mortality P93.00/kg • P4.00 Shipper’s Margin P100.48/kg • P4.50 Wholesaler’s Margin P126.78kg • P17.31 supermarket’s margin P144.09/kg P157.07kg • P30.29 Wet market’s margin

Figure 7. Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS

Table 8. Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Month Forequarter Trimmings Grand Total Jan 5,859,954 951,000 6,810,954 Feb 4,633,976 587,524 5,221,500 Mar 4,673,968 921,916 5,595,884 Apr 5,754,522 756,000 6,510,522 May 4,802,536 727,000 5,529,536 Jun 5,335,944 642,992 5,978,936 Jul 3,795,860 587,000 4,382,860 Aug 6,505,018 446,716 6,951,734 Total 41,361,778 5,620,148 46,981,926

Figure 8. Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS

Table 9. Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Note: *MDM Month Bellies Pork Cuts Deboned* Fats Offals Rind/Skin Grand Total Jan 397,992 980,313 27,000 2,712,180 2,428,992 967,450 7,513,927 Feb 492,644 1,099,421 27,000 2,646,304 2,272,701 976,505 7,514,575 Mar 302,656 1,552,252 26,336 2,683,102 2,225,168 1,314,179 8,103,692 Apr 1,102,036 3,057,945 107,433 3,497,274 1,963,047 1,620,403 11,348,137 May 1,284,928 4,450,990 103,020 3,768,311 3,038,323 1,241,905 13,887,477 Jun 1,032,637 3,989,881 27,000 3,807,187 2,585,728 1,354,184 12,796,616 Jul 976,653 4,876,783 27,000 2,286,650 2,687,711 1,184,443 12,039,241 Aug 913,934 3,753,651 105,495 1,850,226 2,510,679 1,117,116 10,251,101 Total 6,503,480 23,761,236 450,284 23,251,235 19,712,348 9,776,185 83,454,768

CURRENT: Supply = Production current + Total Imports ,[object Object],VII. Pork Supply Forecast for 2008

Figure 9. Quarterly Hog Production, Philippines, 2006-2009F (in '000 MT)

Table 10. Quarterly Hog Production, 2006-2009F (in '000 MT) Month Production Percent Change Actual Forecast 07/06 08/07 09/08 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 min mean min mean Q1 450.27 462.08 442.70 460.93 479.75 2.62 (4.19) 8.37 Q2 439.18 454.58 434.25 495.63 514.45 3.51 (4.47) 18.47 SEM1 889.45 916.66 876.95 956.56 994.20 3.06 (4.33) 13.37 Q3 432.45 438.97 448.25 467.06 1.51 6.40 #DIV/0! Q4 514.24 530.38 546.65 565.47 3.14 6.62 #DIV/0! SEM2 946.69 969.35 994.90 1032.53 2.39 6.52 ANNUAL 1,836.14 1,886.00 876.95 994.90 1,032.53 2.72 1.24

Table 11. Quarterly Pork Imports, 2006 - 2008F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 2009 08/07 09/08 Q1 2.05 4.83 12.16 135.36 151.98 Q2 2.68 14.92 12.20 456.87 (18.22) Sem 1 4.73 19.74 24.36 317.49 23.38 Q3 5.06 12.07 138.84 Q4 3.66 12.12 230.72 Sem 2 8.72 24.19 0.00 177.45 Total 13.45 43.93 24.36 226.70 F - Forecast

Figure 10. Quarterly Pork Supply, Phils., 2006-2009F ('000 MT)

Table 12. Quarterly Pork Supply, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) Qtr 2007 2008 2008 2009 % Change 2008F min 2008F 2008F max 2009F min 2009F 2009F max 08/07 09Fmin/ 08 09F/ 08 09Fmax/08 Q1 325.51 314.72 334.95 347.98 361.02 (3.32) 6.43 10.57 14.71 Q2 320.88 318.89 359.27 372.31 385.35 (0.62) 12.66 16.75 20.84 Sem 1 646.39 633.61 694.22 720.30 746.37 (1.98) 9.57 13.68 17.80 Q3 312.34 325.98 339.02 352.06 (100.00) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Q4 374.93 394.90 407.94 420.98 (100.00) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Sem 2 687.26 0.00 720.89 746.96 773.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 (100.00) Total 1,333.65 633.61 720.89 746.96 773.04 694.22 720.30 746.37 3.52 9.57 13.68 17.80 F–Forecast

CURRENT: Regression Model Dependent Variable – based on household pork consumption of FIES (1994-2003) Independent variables : PCE at current prices, wholesale price of pork in MM Error term is normal, heteroscedastic, has serial correlation but no multicollinearity R 2 = 95.9% MAPE = 2.08% ,[object Object],VIII. Pork Demand Forecast for 2008

Figure 11. Quarterly Pork Demand, Philippines, 2007-2009F ('000 MT)* F - Forecast *used 70% to convert as carcass

Table 13. Quarterly Pork Demand, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 min 2008 2008 max 2009F min 2009F 2009F max 08Fmin/ 07 08F/ 07 08Fmax/07 09Fmin/ 08F 09F/ 08F 09Fmax/ 08F Q1 307.99 299.65 311.79 323.93 309.71 321.85 333.99 (2.71) 1.23 5.17 (0.67) 3.23 7.12 Q2 326.49 309.69 321.83 333.97 345.55 357.69 369.83 (5.15) (1.43) 2.29 7.37 11.14 14.92 Sem 1 634.48 609.33 633.61 657.89 655.26 679.54 703.82 (3.96) (0.14) 3.69 3.42 7.25 11.08 Q3 328.91 324.15 336.29 348.43 (1.45) 2.24 5.94 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Q4 373.39 370.65 382.79 394.93 (0.74) 2.52 5.77 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Sem 2 702.30 694.80 719.08 743.36 (1.07) 2.39 5.85 Total 1,336.78 1,304.13 1,352.69 1,401.25 655.26 679.54 703.82 (2.44) 1.19 4.82 F-Forecast Revised PCE from NSCB Latest FIES is 2006 from NSO 2006 pork fies based on 2003 ratio

IX. Pork Supply & Demand Forecast for 2008

Figure 12. Quarterly Pork Supply vis-a-vis Demand, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) F - Forecast * Actual Demand estimated by PCE

Figure 13. Pork Supply and Demand, Quarterly, 2007-2009F ('000 MT)

Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation

Similar to Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation (20)

More from Obihiro University of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine

More from Obihiro University of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine (15)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation