Inflation in viet nam 1990 2007 bui thi kim thanh ecdtvvip741963
This document provides a summary of inflation in Vietnam over the period 1990-2007. It begins with background on inflation during 1980-1984, 1985-1989, and 1990-2007. The objective is to analyze determinants of inflation in Vietnam and explain differences relative to other Asian countries. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis are used to examine relationships between inflation and factors like money supply, GDP growth, exchange rates, and wages. The findings help understand the nature and causes of inflation in Vietnam's economy during this period.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index remains relatively unchanged over the last 12 months but fell 7% in June. The major factor influencing the decline in the Index is the fall in the price of Brent crude oil which continues to recede from the record highs seen in March, although the price of oil has rebounded somewhat in the last week.
Havas Media Brussels Newsletter December 2011Hugues Rey
The document is a newsletter edition from December 2011 that includes the following sections:
- Media spend from January to October 2011, split by medium and top 20 spenders.
- Cinema section discussing Kinepolis buying Brightfish sales house but it continuing operations.
- TV section on a survey finding additional TV spending leads to 7.5% increased short-term sales and losing TV for a year cuts sales 6%.
- Print section showing declining magazine circulation figures quarterly from 2009 to 2011.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
This document summarizes consumer price index data from the Department of Statistics of Sint Maarten. It finds that in August 2012, consumer prices decreased 0.3% compared to June 2012. However, prices have increased 4.7% over the past year. Specifically, the food expenditure category continues to see high inflation, increasing 14% in August 2012, and has been a major contributor to overall inflation. The release provides detailed analysis of price changes within various food groups and products.
Use of Micro and Macro Frameworks in Estimating
Poverty Implications of Changes in Food Prices
Presented by Maros Ivanic at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Food Prices and Price Volatility
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
The document provides key economic indicators and facts about the Indian economy. It shows India's population, poverty rates, literacy rates, and other indicators have greatly improved since the 1980s. While agriculture still employs many, the services and manufacturing sectors have grown. Challenges remain in reducing poverty and the fiscal deficit. India has experienced strong GDP growth in recent years and its successes include the IT, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.
Inflation in viet nam 1990 2007 bui thi kim thanh ecdtvvip741963
This document provides a summary of inflation in Vietnam over the period 1990-2007. It begins with background on inflation during 1980-1984, 1985-1989, and 1990-2007. The objective is to analyze determinants of inflation in Vietnam and explain differences relative to other Asian countries. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis are used to examine relationships between inflation and factors like money supply, GDP growth, exchange rates, and wages. The findings help understand the nature and causes of inflation in Vietnam's economy during this period.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index remains relatively unchanged over the last 12 months but fell 7% in June. The major factor influencing the decline in the Index is the fall in the price of Brent crude oil which continues to recede from the record highs seen in March, although the price of oil has rebounded somewhat in the last week.
Havas Media Brussels Newsletter December 2011Hugues Rey
The document is a newsletter edition from December 2011 that includes the following sections:
- Media spend from January to October 2011, split by medium and top 20 spenders.
- Cinema section discussing Kinepolis buying Brightfish sales house but it continuing operations.
- TV section on a survey finding additional TV spending leads to 7.5% increased short-term sales and losing TV for a year cuts sales 6%.
- Print section showing declining magazine circulation figures quarterly from 2009 to 2011.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
This document summarizes consumer price index data from the Department of Statistics of Sint Maarten. It finds that in August 2012, consumer prices decreased 0.3% compared to June 2012. However, prices have increased 4.7% over the past year. Specifically, the food expenditure category continues to see high inflation, increasing 14% in August 2012, and has been a major contributor to overall inflation. The release provides detailed analysis of price changes within various food groups and products.
Use of Micro and Macro Frameworks in Estimating
Poverty Implications of Changes in Food Prices
Presented by Maros Ivanic at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Food Prices and Price Volatility
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
The document provides key economic indicators and facts about the Indian economy. It shows India's population, poverty rates, literacy rates, and other indicators have greatly improved since the 1980s. While agriculture still employs many, the services and manufacturing sectors have grown. Challenges remain in reducing poverty and the fiscal deficit. India has experienced strong GDP growth in recent years and its successes include the IT, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.
The document summarizes the business cycle, which describes the typical fluctuations in economic activity between periods of growth (prosperity) and contraction (recession/depression). It discusses how the business cycle affected Canada's economy in the 1920s-1940s, including a period of post-WWI prosperity, followed by recession after the 1929 stock market crash, a long depression in the 1930s with high unemployment, and eventual recovery aided by increased production during WWII. The cycles influenced other countries through economic interdependence and have led to modern policies like unemployment insurance.
1. AMRI Hospital conducts a SWOT analysis for its recruitment process to formulate strategies, aid decision making, analyze competition, and scope of the organization.
2. To attain speed in recruitment, AMRI can conduct campus recruitment, partner with recruitment agencies, contract channel partners, use internet recruitment, implement an employee referral scheme, and innovative tools like POKEN.
3. Post-recruitment, AMRI should implement an orientation program and training, including on-the-job and off-the-job training.
The document summarizes the key events and impacts of the Great Depression that began with the stock market crash of 1929. It describes how various sectors of the US economy such as agriculture, consumer spending and the wealth gap were struggling in the late 1920s. The stock market crash in October 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression, as stock prices plummeted and banks collapsed in its aftermath. Unemployment rose dramatically to 25% by 1933 as GDP fell nearly 50%. Worldwide, many countries were severely impacted due to economic interdependence and the dust bowl exacerbated problems in North America. The Depression ended during World War 2 as US factories received orders to support the war effort.
The document discusses the relationship between inflation and unemployment as depicted by the Phillips curve. It explains that demand-pull inflation is caused by increases in aggregate demand, while cost-push inflation stems from increases in costs of production. The Phillips curve shows an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run, but this relationship breaks down in the long run as inflation expectations rise. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate at which inflation remains stable in the long run.
This presentation is based on the business cycle as a whole and its effects in the employment, production, inflation as well as government interference.
This document discusses different types of unemployment including frictional, seasonal, cyclical, structural, and disguised unemployment. It also discusses underemployment and defines unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and discouraged workers. Additionally, it covers the relationship between unemployment and inflation including the short-run and long-run Phillips curves. Expected inflation rate is identified as a key factor that can shift the short-run Phillips curve. The natural rate hypothesis and need for disinflation policies if unemployment is kept below the natural rate for too long are also summarized.
The document discusses the business cycle, which refers to periods of economic expansion and contraction over time. A business cycle consists of expansions, recessions/general contractions, and revivals. Expansions are periods of increased production, prices, and employment. Recessions involve declining output, prices, and rising unemployment. Contractions occur when the economy experiences a steep decline. Revivals mark the beginning of the next expansion phase. The phases of the business cycle - peak, recession, trough, recovery - are explained in detail. Causes of recessions and theories to explain business cycles like Keynesian and real business cycle theories are also summarized.
This document defines and categorizes different types of unemployment. It discusses voluntary unemployment which occurs when workers choose to leave jobs to find new opportunities. Involuntary unemployment is defined as unemployment caused by external factors like lack of demand. Specific types of unemployment identified include seasonal, cyclical, technical, frictional, structural, and disguised unemployment. Seasonal unemployment occurs in industries like agriculture that experience fluctuations based on the time of year. Cyclical unemployment is caused by lack of aggregate demand in the economy. Technical unemployment results from technological changes replacing certain jobs. Frictional unemployment is temporary as workers transition between jobs. Structural unemployment is a mismatch between the skills workers have and the jobs available. Disguised unemployment occurs when more workers are
This revision presentation for business students introduces the concept of the economic cycle. GDP, consumer spending, business investment are described as are possible business strategies that are adopted during an economic downturn.
Eco 202 ch 31 money growth and inflationGale Pooley
This document discusses various topics related to inflation and monetary policy. It provides inflation rates for different countries from April 2014, with Venezuela having the highest rate at 57.3% and Spain the lowest at -0.2%. It also discusses Milton Friedman's quantity theory of money and how increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. During the 2008 financial crisis, SAMA (Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority) dropped its overnight repo rate from 5.5% to 2% and reduced bank reserve requirements to stimulate the economy.
Economic achievements and problems of monetary policy ofSoftServe
The document summarizes the monetary policy of Ukraine from 1991-2011 in 3 phases:
1) 1991-1996 focused on establishing a national monetary system and preparing for a national currency. Inflation reached 2100% in 1992 and 10,256% in 1993 while GDP declined.
2) 1996-1998 developed government bond markets to issue treasury bills and stabilize inflation.
3) 1999-2011 saw stabilization of the economy, reduction of inflation to 116.6% by 2007, and growth in real GDP and wages, though money supply and public debt increased which led to economic issues. Positive measures included stabilizing currency and inflation while mistakes included excessive money printing and delays in inflation control.
The document summarizes the economic crises that led to rupee devaluations in India in 1966 and 1991. Both crises were precipitated by high inflation, large government budget deficits, and poor balance of payments positions that depleted foreign currency reserves. In 1966, foreign aid was cut off, forcing devaluation. In 1991, the government voluntarily committed to economic liberalization reforms to avert default, including floating the rupee. Both devaluations aimed to boost exports and reduce imports to stabilize the economy.
The document summarizes the economic crises that led to rupee devaluations in India in 1966 and 1991. Both crises were precipitated by high inflation, large government budget deficits, and poor balance of payments positions that depleted foreign currency reserves. In 1966, foreign aid was cut off, forcing devaluation. In 1991, the government voluntarily committed to economic reforms including devaluation to avert default. Restrictive trade policies had been gradually liberalized in the decades prior to both devaluations.
- The Canada Life dividend scale interest rate has historically been relatively stable compared to other financial instruments like stocks and bonds, due in part to smoothing gains and losses over time.
- Smoothing involves incorporating gains and losses into the dividend scale interest rate gradually over several years to help maintain stability.
- While the underlying asset performance can vary significantly year-to-year, Canada Life's conservative investment mix and long-term focus has contributed to reduced volatility in its dividend scale interest rate.
This document contains 24 visuals presenting data on various economic and financial trends from 1960 to the present. The visuals show topics like global GDP and population growth, the economic dominance of certain countries, rising inequality, the growing middle class in developing countries, trends in China's economy, and challenges around debt, housing prices, and non-performing loans.
The document discusses different methods of calculating inflation including the wholesale price index, consumer price index, and GDP deflator. It provides details on the composition and calculation of the consumer price index and shows data on inflation rates in India from 1980-2011 as measured by CPI and WPI. Line charts compare movements in CPI, WPI, and GDP deflator over time. Tables list the components of the consumer price index basket and provide inflation data for various categories from January to September.
It's More Fun Investing in the PhilippinesAldrin Bibon
The Philippine stock market has performed well despite global economic challenges, with the PSEi up 18.5% year-to-date. Strong economic fundamentals such as consumer spending, government spending, and exports drove 1Q GDP growth of 6.4%. However, valuations appear stretched and recent large share placements may sap liquidity in the short-term. Overall the outlook remains positive, as fundamentals are expected to catch up to valuations over the long-run.
Malaysia has achieved most UN Millennium Development Goals through focused programs to eradicate poverty and improve quality of life. Poverty rates declined significantly from 49.3% in 1970 to 5.7% in 2004 through rural development programs, income generation, and direct assistance. Quality of life indicators like life expectancy, literacy and access to basic services have greatly improved and are now at levels of advanced economies. Economic growth averaged over 7% from 1970-1980 due to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and exports of manufactured goods rather than raw materials. Political stability, effective economic policies and development strategies contributed to Malaysia's success in reducing poverty and advancing socially.
Bsc vietnam outlook 2020 2021 (english) colour of the year (final sars-Cov2 r...Long Tran
a quick overview of Vietnam Stock market and economy in 2020 2021 from BIDV securities Company (BSC).
Top 3 Research house in Vietnam (AsiaMoney Broker Poll 2019)
The document summarizes Pakistan's economic growth and investment over the past year. It states that Pakistan's economy grew by an estimated 4.1% in 2009-10, a turnaround from the previous year's growth of 1.2%. However, the recovery remains fragile as not all sectors and regions have benefited equally from the modest upturn. Unemployment also increased moderately. Stronger growth will require resolving long-standing structural issues around resource mobilization and productivity.
1. The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Ethiopia using household panel data from 1994 to 1997, a period of economic recovery driven by improved conditions.
2. Unlike many developing countries, urban and rural poverty levels in Ethiopia are similar. The analysis finds that asset ownership, education, crop choice, dependency levels, and location are important determinants of poverty.
3. Decomposing changes in poverty, the analysis shows that while economic growth reduced poverty, this effect was partly offset by worsening income distribution, highlighting the need for pro-poor, equitable growth policies.
The document summarizes the business cycle, which describes the typical fluctuations in economic activity between periods of growth (prosperity) and contraction (recession/depression). It discusses how the business cycle affected Canada's economy in the 1920s-1940s, including a period of post-WWI prosperity, followed by recession after the 1929 stock market crash, a long depression in the 1930s with high unemployment, and eventual recovery aided by increased production during WWII. The cycles influenced other countries through economic interdependence and have led to modern policies like unemployment insurance.
1. AMRI Hospital conducts a SWOT analysis for its recruitment process to formulate strategies, aid decision making, analyze competition, and scope of the organization.
2. To attain speed in recruitment, AMRI can conduct campus recruitment, partner with recruitment agencies, contract channel partners, use internet recruitment, implement an employee referral scheme, and innovative tools like POKEN.
3. Post-recruitment, AMRI should implement an orientation program and training, including on-the-job and off-the-job training.
The document summarizes the key events and impacts of the Great Depression that began with the stock market crash of 1929. It describes how various sectors of the US economy such as agriculture, consumer spending and the wealth gap were struggling in the late 1920s. The stock market crash in October 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression, as stock prices plummeted and banks collapsed in its aftermath. Unemployment rose dramatically to 25% by 1933 as GDP fell nearly 50%. Worldwide, many countries were severely impacted due to economic interdependence and the dust bowl exacerbated problems in North America. The Depression ended during World War 2 as US factories received orders to support the war effort.
The document discusses the relationship between inflation and unemployment as depicted by the Phillips curve. It explains that demand-pull inflation is caused by increases in aggregate demand, while cost-push inflation stems from increases in costs of production. The Phillips curve shows an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run, but this relationship breaks down in the long run as inflation expectations rise. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate at which inflation remains stable in the long run.
This presentation is based on the business cycle as a whole and its effects in the employment, production, inflation as well as government interference.
This document discusses different types of unemployment including frictional, seasonal, cyclical, structural, and disguised unemployment. It also discusses underemployment and defines unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and discouraged workers. Additionally, it covers the relationship between unemployment and inflation including the short-run and long-run Phillips curves. Expected inflation rate is identified as a key factor that can shift the short-run Phillips curve. The natural rate hypothesis and need for disinflation policies if unemployment is kept below the natural rate for too long are also summarized.
The document discusses the business cycle, which refers to periods of economic expansion and contraction over time. A business cycle consists of expansions, recessions/general contractions, and revivals. Expansions are periods of increased production, prices, and employment. Recessions involve declining output, prices, and rising unemployment. Contractions occur when the economy experiences a steep decline. Revivals mark the beginning of the next expansion phase. The phases of the business cycle - peak, recession, trough, recovery - are explained in detail. Causes of recessions and theories to explain business cycles like Keynesian and real business cycle theories are also summarized.
This document defines and categorizes different types of unemployment. It discusses voluntary unemployment which occurs when workers choose to leave jobs to find new opportunities. Involuntary unemployment is defined as unemployment caused by external factors like lack of demand. Specific types of unemployment identified include seasonal, cyclical, technical, frictional, structural, and disguised unemployment. Seasonal unemployment occurs in industries like agriculture that experience fluctuations based on the time of year. Cyclical unemployment is caused by lack of aggregate demand in the economy. Technical unemployment results from technological changes replacing certain jobs. Frictional unemployment is temporary as workers transition between jobs. Structural unemployment is a mismatch between the skills workers have and the jobs available. Disguised unemployment occurs when more workers are
This revision presentation for business students introduces the concept of the economic cycle. GDP, consumer spending, business investment are described as are possible business strategies that are adopted during an economic downturn.
Eco 202 ch 31 money growth and inflationGale Pooley
This document discusses various topics related to inflation and monetary policy. It provides inflation rates for different countries from April 2014, with Venezuela having the highest rate at 57.3% and Spain the lowest at -0.2%. It also discusses Milton Friedman's quantity theory of money and how increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. During the 2008 financial crisis, SAMA (Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority) dropped its overnight repo rate from 5.5% to 2% and reduced bank reserve requirements to stimulate the economy.
Economic achievements and problems of monetary policy ofSoftServe
The document summarizes the monetary policy of Ukraine from 1991-2011 in 3 phases:
1) 1991-1996 focused on establishing a national monetary system and preparing for a national currency. Inflation reached 2100% in 1992 and 10,256% in 1993 while GDP declined.
2) 1996-1998 developed government bond markets to issue treasury bills and stabilize inflation.
3) 1999-2011 saw stabilization of the economy, reduction of inflation to 116.6% by 2007, and growth in real GDP and wages, though money supply and public debt increased which led to economic issues. Positive measures included stabilizing currency and inflation while mistakes included excessive money printing and delays in inflation control.
The document summarizes the economic crises that led to rupee devaluations in India in 1966 and 1991. Both crises were precipitated by high inflation, large government budget deficits, and poor balance of payments positions that depleted foreign currency reserves. In 1966, foreign aid was cut off, forcing devaluation. In 1991, the government voluntarily committed to economic liberalization reforms to avert default, including floating the rupee. Both devaluations aimed to boost exports and reduce imports to stabilize the economy.
The document summarizes the economic crises that led to rupee devaluations in India in 1966 and 1991. Both crises were precipitated by high inflation, large government budget deficits, and poor balance of payments positions that depleted foreign currency reserves. In 1966, foreign aid was cut off, forcing devaluation. In 1991, the government voluntarily committed to economic reforms including devaluation to avert default. Restrictive trade policies had been gradually liberalized in the decades prior to both devaluations.
- The Canada Life dividend scale interest rate has historically been relatively stable compared to other financial instruments like stocks and bonds, due in part to smoothing gains and losses over time.
- Smoothing involves incorporating gains and losses into the dividend scale interest rate gradually over several years to help maintain stability.
- While the underlying asset performance can vary significantly year-to-year, Canada Life's conservative investment mix and long-term focus has contributed to reduced volatility in its dividend scale interest rate.
This document contains 24 visuals presenting data on various economic and financial trends from 1960 to the present. The visuals show topics like global GDP and population growth, the economic dominance of certain countries, rising inequality, the growing middle class in developing countries, trends in China's economy, and challenges around debt, housing prices, and non-performing loans.
The document discusses different methods of calculating inflation including the wholesale price index, consumer price index, and GDP deflator. It provides details on the composition and calculation of the consumer price index and shows data on inflation rates in India from 1980-2011 as measured by CPI and WPI. Line charts compare movements in CPI, WPI, and GDP deflator over time. Tables list the components of the consumer price index basket and provide inflation data for various categories from January to September.
It's More Fun Investing in the PhilippinesAldrin Bibon
The Philippine stock market has performed well despite global economic challenges, with the PSEi up 18.5% year-to-date. Strong economic fundamentals such as consumer spending, government spending, and exports drove 1Q GDP growth of 6.4%. However, valuations appear stretched and recent large share placements may sap liquidity in the short-term. Overall the outlook remains positive, as fundamentals are expected to catch up to valuations over the long-run.
Malaysia has achieved most UN Millennium Development Goals through focused programs to eradicate poverty and improve quality of life. Poverty rates declined significantly from 49.3% in 1970 to 5.7% in 2004 through rural development programs, income generation, and direct assistance. Quality of life indicators like life expectancy, literacy and access to basic services have greatly improved and are now at levels of advanced economies. Economic growth averaged over 7% from 1970-1980 due to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and exports of manufactured goods rather than raw materials. Political stability, effective economic policies and development strategies contributed to Malaysia's success in reducing poverty and advancing socially.
Bsc vietnam outlook 2020 2021 (english) colour of the year (final sars-Cov2 r...Long Tran
a quick overview of Vietnam Stock market and economy in 2020 2021 from BIDV securities Company (BSC).
Top 3 Research house in Vietnam (AsiaMoney Broker Poll 2019)
The document summarizes Pakistan's economic growth and investment over the past year. It states that Pakistan's economy grew by an estimated 4.1% in 2009-10, a turnaround from the previous year's growth of 1.2%. However, the recovery remains fragile as not all sectors and regions have benefited equally from the modest upturn. Unemployment also increased moderately. Stronger growth will require resolving long-standing structural issues around resource mobilization and productivity.
1. The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Ethiopia using household panel data from 1994 to 1997, a period of economic recovery driven by improved conditions.
2. Unlike many developing countries, urban and rural poverty levels in Ethiopia are similar. The analysis finds that asset ownership, education, crop choice, dependency levels, and location are important determinants of poverty.
3. Decomposing changes in poverty, the analysis shows that while economic growth reduced poverty, this effect was partly offset by worsening income distribution, highlighting the need for pro-poor, equitable growth policies.
The document discusses inflation in India. It defines inflation as a sharp rise in price levels caused by too much money chasing too few goods. It also discusses variations like deflation, hyperinflation, and stagflation. The causes of inflation include demand-pull inflation from economic growth and cost-push inflation from rising costs. Methods to control inflation involve monetary measures from the central bank, fiscal measures from the government, and increasing production. Inflation is measured using indices like the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index.
Inflation in India is defined as a sharp rise in the general price level. It occurs when there is too much money supply chasing too few goods, causing prices to increase. The document discusses different types of inflation like deflation and stagflation. It also outlines various causes of inflation including demand-pull and cost-push factors. Methods for measuring inflation such as the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index are presented. The effects of inflation and ways to control it through monetary, fiscal and other policies are described. Public opinion on the issue is also noted.
PPT Rizzardini "HAART, sostenibilità di un miracolo"StopTb Italia
This document discusses the sustainability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV/AIDS treatment. It begins by recounting the history of HAART from initial hope to "miracle" outcomes. However, it notes the global economic crisis challenges sustainability of healthcare systems. Charts show rising healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP in many nations by 2030 and 2050. Italy faces a large national debt and rising healthcare spending. The document questions if the HAART miracle can continue given these economic pressures and need to control costs.
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a security's intrinsic value by analyzing its financial and economic factors. It involves analyzing macroeconomic factors like GDP, inflation, monetary policy, import/export trends, and unemployment rates. It also involves analyzing the industry life cycle, trends, and drivers. Company analysis examines qualitative factors like management and business model as well as quantitative ratios like current ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, return on equity, inventory turnover, PE ratio, free cash flow, EPS, and dividend pay-out ratio to identify undervalued stocks and assess long-term investment strategies.
Volkan emre financial system development in ld csVolkan Emre
The document analyzes potential ways the IMF could have influenced Turkey to prevent the 2001 currency crisis. It finds weaknesses in the IMF program's preparation, timing, and implementation. Specifically:
1) The program was designed too quickly in under 5 months, without enough consideration of structural issues like state banks' bad debts.
2) Inflation targets and exchange rate pegs were based on unrealistic estimates and neglected price stickiness issues.
3) Regulatory weaknesses in Turkey's banking system, like maturity mismatches, were not adequately addressed before the crisis.
Addressing these issues through more preparation time, realistic estimates, and earlier regulatory reforms could have strengthened the program and potentially prevented the currency crisis.
The document discusses price risk management strategies for cocoa producers and exporters. It begins by outlining world cocoa price movements, production, and trade data. It then examines the Philippines' cocoa exports and imports. The main sections explore managing export price and other risks, including world price fluctuations, production risks, and non-performance risks. It also discusses risk mitigation strategies like hedging, certifications, and branding approaches like telling the story of cocoa production from "plot to gut". The presentation concludes by suggesting areas for further research on certification impacts and developing a distinctive brand identity for Davao cocoa.
The document summarizes growth and economic policies in India from 1950 to 2006. It divides this period into four phases based on differences in growth rates and changes in policy regimes. The first phase from 1950-1965 saw average growth of 4.1% annually. The second phase from 1965-1981 saw slower growth of 3.2% due to increased socialism. The third phase from 1981-1988 saw improved growth of 4.8% associated with some liberalization. Finally, the fourth phase from 1988-2006 saw the fastest growth of 6.3% following more substantial economic reforms. Scholars debate the relative importance of specific reforms versus other factors in driving India's increased growth over time.
1. 19/08/2012
10
Causes of Inflation
and the Philips Curve
Causes of Inflation
Definition and Measurement
Definition: Inflation is a continuous increase
in the general price level.
Measurement: Percentage change in the
general price level.
πt = [( Pt - Pt-1)/ Pt-1].100 (%)
General price level: measured by either
Consumer Price Index (CPI) or GDP deflator
(DGDP).
1
2. 19/08/2012
Category of Inflation
Mild inflation
High inflation:
Hyper inflation: According to Philip
Cagan, inflation rate being from 50% per
month to 13.000% per year.
Figure 1 Inflation in the US, 1960-2002
16
14
12
10
% per year
8
6
4
2
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
inflation rate inflation rate trend
Vietnam’s CPI in 2008
Chỉ số giá tháng 10 năm 2008 so với (%) Chỉ số giá 10
tháng đầu năm
Kỳ gốc Tháng 10 Tháng 12 Tháng 9 2008 so với
cùng kỳ năm
năm 2005 năm 2007 năm 2007 năm 2008
2007
CHỈ SỐ GIÁ TIÊU DÙNG 148,20 126,72 121,64 99,81 123,15
I. Hàng ăn và dịch vụ ăn uống 172,14 140,56 132,12 99,58 136,95
Trong đó: 1- Lương thực 201,99 160,06 151,41 98,09 149,58
2- Thực phẩm 161,16 132,82 124,44 100,01 133,05
3. Ăn uống ngoài gia đình 169,86 139,54 131,37 100,47 131,92
II. Đồ uống và thuốc lá 128,32 113,27 111,34 100,67 110,21
III. May mặc, mũ nón, giầy dép 126,05 112,55 110,82 100,70 109,81
IV. Nhà ở và vật liệu xây dựng (*) 148,40 122,84 116,76 98,92 122,39
V. Thiết bị và đồ dùng gia đình 125,94 111,99 111,26 100,73 108,36
VI. Dược phẩm, y tế 123,00 109,76 108,75 100,58 108,72
VII. Phương tiện đi lại, bưu điện 138,44 124,82 119,56 99,06 116,66
Trong đó: Bưu chính viễn thông 83,46 89,21 90,39 99,82 88,44
VIII. Giáo dục 115,02 106,71 106,56 100,69 103,63
IX. Văn hoá, thể thao, giải trí 115,74 109,50 109,30 100,38 105,03
X. Đồ dùng và dịch vụ khác 132,35 114,65 111,69 6 100,85 113,11
2
3. 19/08/2012
Typical Hyper inflation in the World
Germany Russia China Greece Hungary Bolivia Nicaragua
Begin 8/1922 12/1921 2/1947 11/1943 8/1945 4/1984 4/1987
End 11/1923 1/1924 3/1949 11/1944 7/1946 9/1985 3/1991
No. of months 16 26 26 13 12 18 48
Ratio of
1,02(1010) 1,24(105) 4,15(106) 4,7(108) 3,81(1027) 1028,5 5,53(105)
begin/end price
Average inflation
rate per month 322 57 79,7 365 19800 48,1 46,45
(%)
Highest inflation
rate per month 32400 213 919,9 85,5(106) 41,9(1015) 182,8 261,15
(%)
Money growth and inflation in four typical inflation
Period Monthly Money
Inflation rate growth
% %
Germany 8/1922 => 11/1923 322% 314%
Greece 11/1943 => 11/1944 365% 220%
Hungary 8/1945 => 7/1946 19,800% 12,200%
Poland 1/1923 => 1/1924 81.4% 72.2%
Source: Philip Cagan: The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Milton Friedman, ed.,
Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (Chicago: University of Chicago press, 1956), p.26
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON
OF MONEY AND PRICE INDICES (1990-2003)
Annual growth Annual growth Annual growth
Country
of GDP deflator of CPI of food price
Vietnam 11.6 2.8 -
China 4.9 6.0 11.3
The Philippines 7.7 7.3 6.7
Indonesia 15.3 13.9 16.1
Malaysia 3.4 3.1 4.3
Thailand 3.4 4.1 4.6
South Korea 4.8 4.5 4.8
Singapore 0.6 1.3 1.4
Source: WDI 2005
3
4. 19/08/2012
Theories of Inflation
A. Causes of inflation
1. Demand-pull inflation: An increase in
aggregate demand
2. Cost-push inflation: An increase in prices
of factors of production. Examples:
• An increase in wage level.
• An increase in input prices
3. Inertial inflation
10
Fig.2 Demand-pull Fig.3 Cost-push
inflation inflation
P
P AS1 AS1
E1 AS0
P2 P1
AD2 P0
P1 E0
AD1 AD0
AD0
Y1 Y* Y
Y* Y2 Y
11
Figure 4 Inertial inflation
P AS3
AS2
AS1
P3
P2
P1
AD3
AD2
AD1
Y* Y
12
4
5. 19/08/2012
B. Monetary approach to inflation
• Central insight: Changes in money supply is the
root cause of changes in the general price level.
• M. Friedman: “Inflation is always and
everywhere a monetary phenomenon... and it
occurs only when money grows faster than does
output”
• Quantity theory of money:
MV = PY
V = V
So: % change in P (π) =
= % change in M - % change in Y
Monetary approach to inflation
• Policy implications:
Tightening money supply is a core
solution to control inflation.
Tightening fiscal policy, too.
Fig.5 International data on money growth and inflation
Inflation rate 10,000
Democratic Republic
(percent,
logarithmic Nicaragua of Congo
scale) Angola
1,000 Georgia
Brazil
100 Bulgaria
10
Kuwait Germany
1 USA
Canada
Oman Japan
0.1
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000
Money supply growth (percent, logarithmic scale)
Data for more than 100 countries in 1990s: Average growth of M1 and π
5
6. 19/08/2012
Fig.6 Money growth and inflation in typical hyper inflation cases
10000
1000
percent growth
100
10
1
Israel Poland Brazil Argentina Peru Nicaragua Bolivia
1983-85 1989-90 1987-94 1988-90 1988-90 1987-91 1984-85
inflation growth of money supply
16
Inflation in Vietnam, 1987-2004
1987- 1990- 1995- 2000- 1987-
1989 1994 1999 2004 2004
Growth of CU 286.9 44.8 25.9 27.3 78.9
Growth of M1 286.9 44.8 25.9 27.3 78.9
Growth of M2 318.3 43.5 27.2 22.7 84.3
Openness degree 44.9 57.2 75.3 104.9 71.6
GDP growth rate 4.77 7.30 7.51 7.23 6.90
Inflation rate by
CPI 217.2 34.3 6.02 4.33 48.3
Inflation rate by
DGDP 281.1 36.4 9.38 3.76 63.9
Fig.7 Inflation rate and money growth rate in Vietnam,
1988-2004
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
L m phát M2
6
7. 19/08/2012
Inflation Tax (IT) and Seiniorage (SE)
• Seiniorage is the revenue earned by
government from printing money.
∆M ∆M M P
=
P + ∆P M P P + ∆P
• Inflation tax: Inflation reduces purchasing
power of money in circulation.
M M P + ∆P − P ∆P M P
− =M =
P P + ∆P P( P + ∆P) P P P + ∆P
ThuÕ ®óc tiÒn ë mét sè n−íc, 1975-90*
N−íc % so víi nguån thu ngoµi % GDP
thuÕ ®óc tiÒn
Mü 6,02 1,17
Canada 6,61 1,26
Anh 5,31 1,91
Italia 28,00 6,60
Ph¸p 7,19 2,73
§øc 3,85 1,08
Bolivia** 139,5 5,00
Brazil 18,36 4,13
Chile 7,48 2,39
Ê n ®é 14,30 1,81
Hµn quèc 10,70 1,84
Mªhic« 18,70 2,71
Philippines 7,79 0,99
Thai lan 7,06 0,94
Thæ nhÜ kú 24,40 5,09
Vªnzuela 10,76 3,05
Peru 29,71 4,92
Israel 24,55 2,99
*TÝnh trung b×nh n¨m
**cña giai ®o¹n 1977-1985
20
Nguån : J. D. Sachs and F. Larrain, Macroeconomics in the Global Economy, trang 341.
Inflation and economic growth relation
T. Killick (1981): U-turn shape relation
between inflation and economic growth:
− Inflation has positive impacts on economic growth at
a low level, while it has negative impacts on econ.
growth at high level.
M. Khan and A. Senhadji (2000), with data on
140 countries in the period 1960-1998:
Inflation has an influence on the threshold of
economic growth. The range of optimal
inflation rate is:
− 1-3% per year for industrial countries, and
− 7-11% per year for developing countries
7
8. 19/08/2012
Fig.8 U-turn shape relation
between inflation and economic growth
gY
gYmax
π* π
Controlling inflation
• Tightened fiscal policy
• Reducing G or LAS
P
increasing T results in
a reduction in Y and P. SAS
• Costs of reducing Po E1
inflation is lower Y and P1 Eo
higher U ADo
AD1
Y1 Y0 Y
Controlling inflation
• Tightened monetary
policy
• Contractionary LAS
P
monetary policy results
SAS
in higher interest rate,
Po E1
which in turn reduces
investment, and thus Y. P1 Eo
ADo
• Costs of reducing
inflation is lower Y and AD1
higher U
Y1 Y0 Y
8
9. 19/08/2012
The Short-Run Tradeoff
between Inflation and
Unemployment : Philips Curve
Unemployment and Inflation
• The natural rate of unemployment depends on
various features of the labor market.
• Examples include minimum-wage laws, the
market power of unions, the role of efficiency
wages, and the effectiveness of job search.
• The inflation rate depends primarily on growth
in the quantity of money, controlled by the
Fed.
Unemployment and Inflation
• Society faces a short-run tradeoff between
unemployment and inflation.
• If policymakers expand aggregate demand,
they can lower unemployment, but only at the
cost of higher inflation.
• If they contract aggregate demand, they can
lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily
higher unemployment.
9
10. 19/08/2012
THE PHILLIPS CURVE
• The Phillips curve illustrates the
short-run relationship between
inflation and unemployment.
Figure 9 The Phillips Curve
Inflation
Rate
(percent
per year)
6 B
A
2
Phillips curve
0 4 7 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and
the Phillips Curve
• The Phillips curve shows the short-
run combinations of unemployment
and inflation that arise as shifts in the
aggregate demand curve move the
economy along the short-run
aggregate supply curve.
10
11. 19/08/2012
Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and
the Phillips Curve
• The greater the aggregate demand for
goods and services, the greater is the
economy’s output, and the higher is the
overall price level.
• A higher level of output results in a lower
level of unemployment.
Figure 8 How the Phillips Curve is Related to
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (b) The Phillips Curve
Price Inflation
Level Short-run Rate
aggregate (percent
supply per year)
6 B
106 B
102 A
High
A
aggregate demand 2
Low aggregate
Phillips curve
demand
0 7,500 8,000 Quantity 0 4 7 Unemployment
(unemployment (unemployment of Output (output is (output is Rate (percent)
is 7%) is 4%) 8,000) 7,500)
SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE:
THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS
• The Phillips curve seems to offer
policy-makers a menu of possible
inflation and unemployment
outcomes.
11
12. 19/08/2012
The Long-Run Phillips Curve
• In the 1960s, Friedman and Phelps
concluded that inflation and
unemployment are unrelated in the long
run.
• As a result, the long-run Phillips curve is
vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.
• Monetary policy could be effective in the
short run but not in the long run.
Figure 9 The Long-Run Phillips Curve
Inflation
Rate Long-run
Phillips curve
High B
1. When the inflation
Fed increases
the growth rate
of the money
supply, the
rate of inflation 2. . . . but unemployment
increases . . . A remains at its natural rate
Low
in the long run.
inflation
0 Natural rate of Unemployment
unemployment Rate
Figure 10 How the Phillips Curve is Related to
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (b) The Phillips Curve
Price Long-run aggregate Inflation Long-run Phillips
Level supply Rate curve
1. An increase in 3. . . . and
the money supply increases the
increases aggregate inflation rate . . .
B
P2 demand . . . B
2. . . . raises
the price
A
level . . . P A
AD2
Aggregate
demand, AD
0 Natural rate Quantity 0 Natural rate of Unemployment
of output of Output unemployment Rate
4. . . . but leaves output and unemployment
at their natural rates.
12
13. 19/08/2012
Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve
• Expected inflation measures how much
people expect the overall price level to
change.
• In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to
changes in actual inflation.
• The Fed’s ability to create unexpected inflation
exists only in the short run.
• Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to
get unemployment below the natural rate is for
actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.
Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve
Unemployment Rate =
Natural rate of unemployment - a Actual − Expected
inflation inflation ( )
• This equation relates the unemployment
rate to the natural rate of
unemployment, actual inflation, and
expected inflation.
Figure 11 How Expected Inflation Shifts
the Short-Run Phillips Curve
2. . . . but in the long run, expected
inflation rises, and the short-run
Inflation Phillips curve shifts to the right.
Rate Long-run
Phillips curve
C
B
Short-run Phillips curve
with high expected
inflation
A
Short-run Phillips curve
1. Expansionary policy moves
with low expected
the economy up along the
inflation
short-run Phillips curve . . .
0 Natural rate of Unemployment
unemployment Rate
13
14. 19/08/2012
The Natural Experiment for the Natural-Rate
Hypothesis
• The view that unemployment
eventually returns to its natural rate,
regardless of the rate of inflation, is
called the natural-rate hypothesis.
• Historical observations support the
natural-rate hypothesis.
The Natural Experiment for the Natural Rate
Hypothesis
• The concept of a stable Phillips curve
broke down in the in the early ’70s.
• During the 1970’s and 1980’s, the
economy experienced high inflation
and high unemployment
simultaneously.
Figure 12 The Phillips Curve in the 1960s
Inflation Rate
(percent per year)
10
8
6
1968
4
1966
1967
2
1965 1962
1964 1961
1963
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
14
15. 19/08/2012
Figure 13 The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve
Inflation Rate
(percent per year)
10
8
6 1973
1971
1969 1970
1968 1972
4
1966
1967
2 1962
1965
1964 1961
1963
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE:
THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
• Historical events have shown that the short-run
Phillips curve can shift due to changes in
expectations.
• The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because
of shocks to aggregate supply.
• Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can
worsen the short-run tradeoff between
unemployment and inflation.
• An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less
favorable tradeoff between inflation and
unemployment.
SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE:
THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
• A supply shock is an event that directly
alters the firms’ costs, and, as a result, the
prices they charge.
• This shifts the economy’s aggregate
supply curve. . .
• . . . and as a result, the Phillips curve.
15
16. 19/08/2012
Figure 14 An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supply
(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (b) The Phillips Curve
Price Inflation
Level AS2 Rate 4. . . . giving policymakers
Aggregate a less favorable tradeoff
supply, AS between unemployment
and inflation.
B
P2 B
3. . . . and 1. An adverse
raises A shift in aggregate A
the price P supply . . .
level . . . PC2
Aggregate
demand Phillips curve, P C
0 Y2 Y Quantity 0 Unemployment
of Output Rate
2. . . . lowers output . . .
SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE:
THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
• In the 1970s, policymakers faced two
choices when OPEC cut output and raised
worldwide prices of petroleum.
• Fight the unemployment battle by
expanding aggregate demand and
accelerate inflation.
• Fight inflation by contracting aggregate
demand and endure even higher
unemployment.
Figure 15 The Supply Shocks of the 1970s
Inflation Rate
(percent per year)
10
1981 1975
1980
1974
1979
8
1978
6 1977
1973 1976
4 1972
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
16
17. 19/08/2012
THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
• To reduce inflation, the Fed has to pursue
contractionary monetary policy.
• When the Fed slows the rate of money
growth, it contracts aggregate demand.
• This reduces the quantity of goods and
services that firms produce.
• This leads to a rise in unemployment.
Figure 16 Disinflationary Monetary Policy
in the Short Run and the Long Run
1. Contractionary policy moves
the economy down along the
Inflation short-run Phillips curve . . .
Long-run
Rate
Phillips curve
A
Short-run Phillips curve
with high expected
inflation
C B
Short-run Phillips curve
with low expected
inflation
0 Natural rate of Unemployment
unemployment 2. . . . but in the long run, expected Rate
inflation falls, and the short-run
Phillips curve shifts to the left.
THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
• To reduce inflation, an economy must endure
a period of high unemployment and low
output.
• When the Fed combats inflation, the economy
moves down the short-run Phillips curve.
• The economy experiences lower inflation but at
the cost of higher unemployment.
17
18. 19/08/2012
THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
• The sacrifice ratio is the number of
percentage points of annual output that
is lost in the process of reducing inflation
by one percentage point.
• An estimate of the sacrifice ratio is five.
• To reduce inflation from about 10% in 1979-
1981 to 4% would have required an
estimated sacrifice of 30% of annual output!
Summary
• The Phillips curve describes a negative
relationship between inflation and
unemployment.
• By expanding aggregate demand, policymakers
can choose a point on the Phillips curve with
higher inflation and lower unemployment.
• By contracting aggregate demand, policymakers
can choose a point on the Phillips curve with
lower inflation and higher unemployment.
Summary
• The tradeoff between inflation and
unemployment described by the Phillips
curve holds only in the short run.
• The long-run Phillips curve is vertical at
the natural rate of unemployment.
18
19. 19/08/2012
Summary
• The short-run Phillips curve also shifts
because of shocks to aggregate supply.
• An adverse supply shock gives
policymakers a less favorable tradeoff
between inflation and unemployment.
Summary
• When the Fed contracts growth in the
money supply to reduce inflation, it
moves the economy along the short-run
Phillips curve.
• This results in temporarily high
unemployment.
• The cost of disinflation depends on how
quickly expectations of inflation fall.
19