This document summarizes key social media trends for 2015 as predicted by Marshall Manson and James Whatley of Ogilvy. It reviews their 2014 predictions and finds that disposable content on platforms like Snapchat grew significantly. It also notes brands' increasing use of humor on social media. Looking to 2015, it predicts the rise of "Twitter Zero" with less organic reach requiring more paid promotion. It also discusses the growing battle for dominance in online video between Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. Finally, it examines trends in youth social media usage and anonymity-focused platforms.

1. Key Trends in Social Media for 2015
by Marshall Manson & James Whatley
@marshallmanson @whatleydude
marshall.manson@ogilvy.com james.whatley@ogilvy.com

2. At the close of 2013, Marshall Manson,
managing director of Social@Ogilvy
EMEA, and James Whatley, social media
director of Ogilvy & Mather Advertising
London, put their heads together and
came up with their trend predictions for
the year ahead.
This document outlines a brief review of
those ideas as well as a more in-depth
look at the thoughts, trends and
predictions for next year.

3. 2014: Trend Review
Disposable Content
Last year, inline with millennial interest in keeping its anonymity
synonymous with its content, disposable content became an actual
thing. Here’s why:
1. According to Global Web Index, Snapchat was the fastest most
growing social network of 2014. Not bad.
2. Stealing with pride, many copycat apps sprang up and tried to emulate
said ephemeral success. Slingshot, WindUp, and Bolt to name but
three.
3. Dizzee Rascal, with his Halloween hit ‘Couple of Stacks’, landed a
music video for the Snapchat generation by giving it a time limit and, by
November rolled around, it was deleted again. Amazing.

4. 2014: Trend Review
Brand Banter
The kids are cool, didn’t you hear? And like dads dancing at a disco,
many brands tried to be cool too.
1. Tesco Mobile picked up several awards for its ‘#nojoke’
‘campaign’ – winning all the way to the banter bank*
2. From Royal Babies to celebrity backsides, ‘owning the moment’
became the latest fad to fellate the never-ending content
calendars of 2014.
‘Brandter’ indeed.
*- Bankter? No, just stop…

5. 2014: Trend Review
Sub-dividing Communities
When Marshall came up with this bad boy towards the end of 2013,
we all thought he was nuts. But with the advent of hyper-targeting on
Facebook, the smartest brands of 2014 really took this to the next
level.
Our favourite example:
Did you know that for the 2014 Superbowl, Coca-cola made 12
different cuts of its ‘America is Beautiful’ ad and targeted across the
many cultures, races, and creeds that live therein?
Amazing.

6. 2014: Trend Review
Facebook as a paid media channel
Nailed it.

7. 2015 Trends
Let’s get to the good stuff…

8. Trend 1:
Twitter Zero

9. 9
Background: 2014 gave us Facebook Zero

10. 10
Background:
And now Twitter have stated very publicly that they will indeed,
eventually, head down the very same path…

11. Defining ‘Twitter Zero’

12. 12
• Twitter’s user numbers have hit a plateau, yet the volume
of content published to Twitter continues to accelerate.
• To combat this growth inertia, Twitter is searching for
fresh ways to attract new users, make its onboarding
experience for new users easier to understand, and do a
better job of serving relevant content to its existing users.
• And fundamentally, Twitter needs to make more money.
Defining Twitter Zero

13. 13
• In 2015, and like Facebook before it, Twitter is sure to
embrace algorithmic content serving, and move away
from its traditional reverse chronological format.
• The implication for brands is clear: organic reach will
approach zero, and there will be greater pressure to
deploy Twitter’s suite of paid products in support of
branded content.
Defining Twitter Zero

14. How do you
prepare for this?

15. 15
Preparing for Twitter Zero: Focus on Performance
Build Communities
of Fans
Organic Reach Fuels
WOM / Earned
Old New
Test with Organic
(while it lasts)
Use Paid to Fuel WOM
/ Earned
Organic reach and building Likes should be filed away with
2013’s taxes.
For 2015 test with what works with your audience first then
boost with paid to work your best performing content harder.

16. 16
v
There is a HUGE wealth of targeting
options across the major platforms
rooted in audience’s social
behaviours.
Delivering editorial content via
sophisticated targeting can deliver
massive performance benefits.
Preparing for Twitter Zero: Win with Targeting

17. 17
Embrace Twitter Cards
Twitter Cards not only a provide way to stand out in the feed but
also pave the way for a more commercial approach to content
delivery
App Download CardLead Gen CardProduct Card

18. 18
Embrace Twitter Cards
As you read this, Integrated e-Commerce is being beta tested in
the US - so be prepared!

19. 19
Don’t forget Facebook: you can do a little with a lot
A lot of SMEs we speak to are concerned that they’re going to be
priced out of social by the demise of organic reach.
But you might be surprised with what you can achieve; we
recommend experimenting with small amounts and seeing what
works.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
8/22/14 8/29/14 9/5/14 9/12/14 9/19/14 9/26/14 10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
The below chart demonstrates a reach of over
100,000 Facebook users with only a £300 spend
We’re able to reach over 100k
Facebook users with a Facebook
paid media spend of only £300.

20. 20
When we say Editorial we mean:
Timely and relevant
1.It’s good to have marketing that doesn’t look like
marketing
2.Facebook have said that posts that look like ads
will be downgraded in its algorithm
3.Think about the value exchange
But keep it editorial

21. 21
And remember!
Social is more than Facebook & Twitter

22. Trend 2:
The Battle Royale for Video Dominance
Facebook vs. YouTube vs. Twitter

23. 23
May 2014: Facebook tweaked its
algorithm to significantly increase the
volume of video appearing in users’
newsfeeds.
Then a Buzzfeed partnership
combined with Ice Bucket Challenge
massively increased awareness and
usage of native Facebook video.
Finally Zuckerberg declared video “A
big priority” in Q3 earnings call.
That time Facebook punched YouTube on the nose…

24. 24
…then stole its girlfriend.

25. 25
This metric is crazy: in 2014 Facebook video MATCHED YouTube…

26. 26
Facebook: Better Within Facebook
• Data from ad parlor showed that Facebook native delivered:
• 2.5x higher CTR
• 10% lower cost per engagement
• 3.5x lower CPC
• 5.5x lower cost per video play
• Marketers are responding. As of November 2014, marketers are now choosing to go
native with Facebook video instead of embedding from YouTube. (See chart.)
According to Social Bakers,
videos published natively to
Facebook delivered
40% better engagement
rates than YouTube videos
embedded into Facebook.

27. 27
Facebook: stronger for engagement & sharing
Even comparing native performance in Facebook to
native performance in YouTube, early evidence suggests
that Facebook delivers significantly better
engagement.
The recent John Lewis Christmas ad delivered 0.8%
engagement in YouTube (from 18.5m views at the time of
writing), while Facebook delivered 5.2% engagement
(from 6.2m views).
That’s a 550% improvement.
And Facebook drove 160% more shares (159,000) than
YouTube (61,000) from a third of the views.
Put another way, when it came to Monty the Penguin, Facebook
video accounted for 72% of the shares from only 25% of the views.

28. 28
Bifurcating and Trifurcating
• Facebook’s user share for video is
increasing.
• Other platforms working to follow.
• And (Facebook-owned) Instagram is
increasingly first port of call for users,
particularly Millennials, to publish short
videos created on mobile.
• The successful roll out of Hyperlapse
is enhancing Instagram’s position, too.
• Twitter’s move to present [promoted]
video directly in-feed via cards makes
it an increasingly relevant player as
well, building on Vine’s solid foundation
of success.
Source: Comscore

29. 29
The Problem of Autoplay
Source: Comscore
• Facebook’s decision to autoplay videos on desktop and mobile without sound artificially
inflates view counts.
• It’s also resulting in extremely poor completion rates for video advertising distributed on the
platform. (One commentator cited a 25% completion rate for Facebook, compared to a
typical 80% rate in YouTube.
• We’d say it’s a fairly safe bet this is so low due to the scrolling screens that whizz by auto-
play videos. Not ideal.

30. Defining ‘The Video Royale’

31. 31
• It is a fact that Facebook has disrupted YouTube’s position as the
default choice for publishing and distributing video content.
• Going forward, marketers will need to publish video content natively to
both Facebook and YouTube, and support distribution paid in each
platform.
• Twitter and Instagram will also become increasingly more relevant as
they both make their own bets on video content as ad products.
– See: Twitter’s existing (and evolving) video ad proposition.
– Prediction: Instagram ad proposition will evolve and include the introduction
of video approximately the middle of next year.
The Battle for Video Dominance

32. 32
• By dumping Bing, Facebook has intimated that it might finally start taking
search seriously.
• It should not be underestimated how significant it is that Facebook has
added view counts to its videos; the creatives currently enjoying several
millions of views on YouTube will need a number for their CVs – this stuff
matters (to them).
• In 2015 Facebook will get serious on copyright infringement and then
also, once that’s tidied away, consider revenue sharing for its best
content creators.
Get those right, and Facebook could be the next YouTube….
The ever improving video platform that is Facebook

33. How do you
prepare for this?

34. 34
• If you haven’t already, get used to
publishing your videos across
Facebook and YouTube.
• We’ve said it before and we’ll say it
again: take the necessary steps to
support consumption and
engagement with paid media.
Embrace Native Video Publishing

35. 35
As more brands publish native Facebook video, the data will
teach us more about user preferences and behaviour.
User behaviour will keep evolving as well.
Be ready to product variations of your video content,
optimised for each platform.
Watch the Data.
Get Ready to Optimise
For example, Facebook users may demonstrate a preference for
shorter, more shareable content.

36. Trend 3:
Youth in the Digital Age

37. 37
We know this isn’t a trend.
But seriously, kids are using the Internet and the behaviours
demonstrated by the different generations are only now
spilling out into solid research.
KIDS ARE USING THE INTERNET!!!

38. 38
One thing we will say however…
2015 will see continual growth in young people using
anonymity-friendly platforms.
Having a cast iron ‘real name’ identity simply isn’t attractive
for people who haven’t worked out who they are yet.

39. 39
- James Whatley, March 2014
“
”
We've been talking about Tumblr usage being high amongst teens due to struggling with / still
exploring their self-identity. Having several Instagram accounts and email accounts is considered
the norm when your self is so fluid and still growing.
When you're old enough to have sex, to drive, buy cigarettes and alcohol, vote... sociological
norms define that you must be identifiable. This is a stretch, and possibly the broadest sweeping
statement I've made this year but, Facebook [and Google+] work within and around those social
norms. When teens 'graduate' in adulthood, they'll 'need' consistent online profiles; at an absolute
minimum, a LinkedIn account.
The Tumblrs, Whatsapps, and Snapchats of this world (anonymous expression of self, closed
social networks, and ephemeral content respectively) work for the still-developing personalities
more/better than others. That's not to say they'll stop, just that they may not remain there
exclusively once maturity sets in.

40. Random stuff we
haven’t figured out yet…

41. 41
Digital is an Extension of Identity?
“WE ARE WHAT WE SHARE”

42. 42
Trend Churn?
“WE SHARE WHAT WE THINK
OTHERS WILL BE SHARING”

43. 43
Luxury Brand Identification as an extension of their storytelling?
“WE SHARE WHAT WE WANNA BE”

44. Thank you
Marshall Manson
marshall.manson@ogilvy.com
mobile +44 7879 890 000
@marshallmanson
James Whatley
james.whatley@ogilvy.com
mobile +44 7774 898 681
@whatleydude