Kaihan AceTech presentation April 2014

 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
April 11, 2014
Kaihan Krippendorff
www.kaihan.net

Mohammad Yunus

Ratan Tata

Thomas Edison

Ray Kroc

Betsy Johnson

Richard
Branson
Oprah
Winfrey
Elizabeth
Arden
Dhirubhai
Ambani
Bill Gates
Charles
Revson
Henry Ford
Sōichirō
Honda

Martin Luther
King, Jr.
Mother
Teresa
Mahatma
Gandhi
Nelson
Mandela
Rosa Parks Mohammad
Yunus
Margaret
Thatcher
Benjamin
Franklin

Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla Motors
Tom Adams
CEO, Rosetta Stone
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Facebook
Arianna Huffington
CEO, Huffington Post
Robert Keane
CEO, Vistaprint
Wayne Gattinella
CEO, WebMD
Sabrina Herrera
Cofounder, Genomma Lab
Marissa Mayer
CEO, Yahoo
Larry Page
CEO, Google
Mark Vadon
Founder, Blue Nile
Josh Linkner
Founder, ePrize
Ann Hand
CEO, Project Frog
Susan Lyne
CEO, Gilt Groupe
Cory Booker
Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA
Jeff Bezos
Founder, Amazon.com

Some Victims

2000
1. GE
2. Microsoft
3. Dell
4. Cisco
5. Wal-Mart
2005
1. Dell
2. GE
3. Starbucks*
4. Wal-Mart
5. Southwest A.*
2010
1. Apple*
2. Google*
3. Berkshire H.*
4. J&J*
5. Amazon*
Most Admired Companies Replaced
Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies

Fortune 500 Survival is Falling
Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion;
Kauffman Foundation, June 2012

S&P Lifespan Shortening

“First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.”
Mohandas Gandhi

The option beyond the obvious choices;
the option others do not see, will not
consider, and will not respond effectively to.
The 4th Option®

 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 2
Go home
Wait
Cross

Outthinkers are Outliers
“Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa
1927
“There is no reason for any individual to have a
computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977
“There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of
the atom.”
Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
“The phonograph … is not of any commercial value.”
Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa
1880

URBN Revenue History
$ Millions
Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF
350 425
550
830
1,090
1,230
1,510
1,840
1,940
2,270
2,470
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

URBN Results
5
5
13
Industry
ANF**
URBN
Growth
5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%)
14
12
20
Profitability
5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%)
* 5 years average as of October 2013
** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization
Source: Reuters

College students only
Used clothing
Artists not managers in charge
Manager freedom
Every store different
…

Urban Outfitters – Differentiation along 5 of 8 Ps
Position
Process
Physical
experience
People
PlaceProduct
PromotionPrice

Position
Process
Physical
experience
People
PlaceProduct
PromotionPrice
The 8Ps – Simple but Powerful
Analyze and compare competitors
Map your own points of differentiation –
how many do you have? How strong?
Look at industry pattern…is
everybody optimizing the same Ps?
Where is nobody looking?
Can you turn “bad into good”?

Objectives
Define our
vision and
goals; our
challenges
Imagine
Choose
different
leverage
points
Dissect
Generate
more
potential
strategies
Expand
Choose
disruptive
strategies
Analyze
Decide how
to
communicate
strategy
Sell
The IDEAS Framework

Alexandra Kosteniuk
How Do Great Strategists See the
“Winning Move?”

Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
Consciousness
Phonetic loop
Visuo-special
sketchpad
Episodic buffer

Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:
Grand master Master Expert

Europe & Americas –
Fairy tales
Japan – Koan
India – Puranas
China – 36 stratagems

Identifying Outthinkers
Value creation
(TRS)
Revenue growth
(CAGR)
(EBITDA)
Profit margin

Core Research

Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good

Move Early to the Next Battleground22

Move Early to the Next Battleground22
“I just think a future in
which anyone can shoot
stuff into space is more
exciting than one which
only the government
can.”
Elon Musk, founder,
Space-X
(2003 interview)

Identify and move early to the next
battleground.
Where is the next battleground?
- Technological trends?
- Social shifts?
- Geographies?
- Buying patterns?
- Needs?
22 Move Early to the Next Battleground

Coordinate the Uncoordinated34

Combine and coordinate independent
elements within your environment to
orchestrate much greater power.
Who would we like to coordinate?
- Customers
- Experts
- Employees
- Real estate
- Regulators
- Competitors
- Driveways
- …
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34

Force a Two-Front Battle7

7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Cloud
providers
Cloud
services
Retail
“There is no physical analog for
what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos

Shoes
Shoes
Customer
service

Traditional
software
SoftwareBrokerage

Force a two-front battle7
Project your unique capability into a new
area.
What is your unique advantage/
capability?
Into what new area could you project this?

Environment
Employees
Community
Govern-
ment /
country
Share-
holders
Customers
Corporation
33 Be Good

33 Be Good

The Holstee
Manifesto

Adopt a strategy that benefits others.
How can you create strategic power by
pursuing a “good” strategy?
Be good33

Create Something Out of Nothing32

Julie Pickens

Ingvar Kamprad

Add a new piece the board.
What would you like to create/ add
to the game?
- New categories?
- New occasions or needs?
- New customers?
- New suppliers?
- New distributors?
- New regulations?
Create something out of nothing32

Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net

Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
How can you project into a new sector?
What can you create?
Where is the next battleground?
Who could you coordinate?
How can you be good?

“Impossible is a word to
be found only in the
dictionary of fools.”
Napoleon Bonaparte

“It's not that I'm so
smart, it's just that I
stay with problems
longer.”
- Albert Einstein

Make the impossible possible
Don’t build
handsets
Risk of no
WiFi
Customer
Service too
costly
“Each of these
looked like show
stoppers”
Motorola
Early
adopters
No one
provides
service
David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com

kaihan@outthinker.com
www.outthinker.com
www.kaihan.net
@kaihan
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Kaihan AceTech presentation April 2014

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